Market Overview and Analysis - The primary market saw the issuance of government bonds, local government bonds, and policy financial bonds amounting to 468.6 billion, 165.5 billion, and 174.5 billion respectively, with net financing of 338.6 billion, 82.8 billion, and 174.5 billion [1] - Financial bonds (excluding policy financial bonds) totaled an issuance of 132.0 billion with a net financing of 12.5 billion [1] - Non-financial credit bonds had an issuance of 357.9 billion and a net financing of 198.7 billion [1] - One new convertible bond was issued with an expected financing scale of 1.17 billion [1] Secondary Market Review - The bond market showed resilience amidst a strong stock market environment, influenced by factors such as the month-end liquidity, new VAT policies, and central bank's buyout operations [2] Liquidity Tracking - Post month-end, the liquidity naturally eased, and the central bank's announcement of buyout reverse repos further supported new bond issuance, leading to an overnight funding rate dropping below 1.3%, which pushed down funding prices [3] - The R001 and R007 rates decreased by 1.3 basis points and 3.3 basis points respectively compared to the previous week [3] Policy and Fundamentals - July economic data indicated resilient export growth, with core CPI rising for five consecutive months, although the anti-involution policy slightly hindered PPI transmission [4] - High-frequency data showed a slight decline in production and sustained low levels in consumption, with both food and commodity prices decreasing [4] Overseas Market - The easing of the Russia-Ukraine conflict improved market risk sentiment, while deviations in U.S. Treasury auctions put pressure on U.S. bonds, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury closing at 4.27%, up 4 basis points from the previous week [5] Equity Market - The market returned to an upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new high for the year, while the overall A-share market rose by 1.94% with reduced trading volume, maintaining an average daily trading volume of 1.7 trillion [6] - As of August 7, 2025, the total financing balance for the entire A-share market was 1,998.9 billion, an increase of 27.9 billion from July 31 [6] Bond Market Strategy Outlook - In a low-interest-rate environment, traditional allocations of new funds by residents and institutions towards deposits and bonds are beginning to shift towards assets with rights, forming the basis for the stock market bull run this year [7] - This behavior will not change the downward trend of bond market interest rates but may delay the speed of decline and increase short-term volatility [7] - With the impact of the VAT recovery subsiding, the 10-year bond yield may return below 1.7%, potentially weakening market bullish sentiment [7] - The further downward space for interest rates depends on the central bank's continued support for new bond issuances affected by VAT and the pace of stock market increases [7] - For credit bonds, a relatively loose liquidity environment remains favorable, but attention should be paid to the issue of excessive narrowing of credit spreads [7] - In the convertible bond market, following the rollback of previous anti-involution expectations, there is renewed selection space for convertible bonds, with high-priced bonds not entering conversion periods and those not strongly redeemed gradually moving towards dual highs, maintaining a good overall profit effect [7] - It is important to note that the current risk-reward asymmetry has weakened, and some volatility is inevitable, making participation more challenging for low-volatility strategy investors [7]

央行将于8月15日开展5000亿元买断式逆回购操作，期限为6个月。 央行发布公告，为保持银行体系流动性充裕，2025年8月15日，中国人民银行将以固定数量、利率招 标、多重价位中标方式开展5000亿元买断式逆回购操作，期限为6个月（182天）。 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: August 14, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Long - term, the Politburo meeting in July maintained the stance of "moderate easing" for monetary policy, indicating that the easing orientation remains unchanged. With high tariff uncertainties and potential risks of post - export - rush decline, the bull - market foundation for bonds remains. However, in the short term, the joint statement on tariff exemption extension between China and the US reduces uncertainties, cools down risk - aversion sentiment, and the strength of commodities and the stock market put pressure on the bond market, especially long - term bonds. Considering the supportive factors for the capital market in August, short - term bonds (2 - year and 5 - year) may be more resilient, and a strategy of going long on short - term and short on long - term bonds is recommended [11][12]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Condition**: The stock market reached a new high, but treasury bond futures fluctuated and recovered, possibly boosted by rumors of a 6 - month buy - back repurchase and a potential reduction in the operating rate [8]. - **Cash Bond Yields**: Yields of major term interest rate cash bonds in the inter - bank market declined across the board, with long - term yields dropping by about 1bp. By 16:30, the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250011 was reported at 1.72%, down 0.75bp [9]. - **Funding Market**: The central bank continued net withdrawals, but inter - bank funds remained loose. There were 138.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturities, and the central bank conducted 118.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 20 billion yuan. The inter - bank funding sentiment index loosened, short - term funding rates changed slightly, and medium - and long - term funds were stable [10]. - **Conclusion**: Long - term, the bull - market foundation for bonds remains, but short - term, long - term bonds are under pressure. Short - term bonds may be more resilient, and a "long short - term, short long - term" strategy is recommended [11][12]. 2. Industry News - **China - US Relations**: The US and China issued a joint statement. The US promised to continue adjusting tariffs on Chinese goods, and both sides suspended relevant tariff and non - tariff counter - measures for 90 days. China also continued to suspend relevant measures on the unreliable entity list [13]. - **Domestic Policies**: Three departments jointly issued a plan for fiscal subsidies on personal consumption loans, and nine departments issued a plan for fiscal subsidies on loans to service - industry business entities [13]. - **US News**: Trump urged the Fed to cut interest rates, threatened to sue Fed Chairman Powell, and planned to nominate E.J. Anthony as the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics. US Treasury Secretary suggested a 50 - basis - point rate cut in September. US July CPI and core CPI data were released, and the market expected a high probability of a rate cut in September. The US national debt exceeded $37 trillion [14]. 3. Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Information on trading data of treasury bond futures contracts on August 13, including prices, trading volumes, and open interests, is provided. Also, there are data on cross - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and price trends of the main contracts [6]. - **Money Market**: Data on SHIBOR term structure changes, SHIBOR trends, inter - bank pledged repurchase weighted interest rate changes, and silver - deposit inter - bank pledged repurchase rate changes are presented [29][33]. - **Derivatives Market**: Information on Shibor3M interest rate swap fixing curves and FR007 interest rate swap fixing curves is given [35].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current financial landscape, highlighting the negative growth in credit and its implications for the A-share market, drawing parallels to historical trends from 2005. Financial Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index has surpassed 3674 points, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment [5] - In July, new credit issuance was negative at -500 billion, marking a significant downturn [5] - The central bank conducted a 1185 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, with a net withdrawal of 200 billion yuan, reflecting a balanced and slightly loose liquidity environment [3][5] Interest Rates and Bond Market - The overnight repo rates are stable, with DR001 around 1.32% and DR007 at 1.45% [3] - The weighted average rates for repos are as follows: R001 at 1.35%, R007 at 1.47%, and R014 at 1.51%, indicating slight fluctuations in the short-term funding costs [4] - The 10-year government bond yield opened at 1.7200%, with a peak of 1.7350% during the trading session [6] Historical Context and Market Sentiment - The article references the last occurrence of negative credit growth in July 2005, which preceded a substantial increase in the Shanghai Composite Index, suggesting a potential for similar outcomes in the current context [5] - Analysts express a cautious yet optimistic sentiment regarding the stock market, with a humorous exchange indicating a preference for technology and growth sectors over bonds [6]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China announced a 122 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation with a fixed rate and quantity tender, maintaining a bid and winning amount of 122 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40% [1] - A total of 126 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos matured today, resulting in a net withdrawal of 4 billion yuan [1] - The overnight Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) decreased by 0.1 basis points to 1.315%, while the 7-day Shibor fell by 0.8 basis points to 1.434% [1] Group 2 - The weighted average rate of DR007 dropped to 1.4515%, which is above the policy interest rate level [1] - The 1-day government bond reverse repo rate on the Shanghai Stock Exchange (GC001) decreased to 1.191% [1] - According to the chief economist of CITIC Securities, the central bank may continue its net injection operations through reverse repos, potentially including 6-month term reverse repos in the future [1] Group 3 - The MLF (Medium-term Lending Facility) maturity scale for the month is 300 billion yuan, and it is expected that MLF operations will continue with slight net injections [1]

王青指出，7月共有12000亿元买断式逆回购到期，其中3个月期到期量为7000亿元，6个月期到期量 为5000亿元。本月开展14000亿元买断式逆回购操作，意味着当月买断式逆回购净投放2000亿元，为连 续第二个月加量续作。 中新社北京7月14日电 (记者 夏宾)据中国央行14日消息，为保持银行体系流动性充裕，中国央行7 月15日将以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展14000亿元(人民币，下同)买断式逆回购操 作。其中，3个月期8000亿元，6个月期6000亿元。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青对记者表示，在今年6月央行打破月末公告惯例，分别于6月5日和6月 13日发布买断式逆回购公告之后，7月央行再次于月中公告买断式逆回购操作。这表明每月买断式逆回 购已从月末披露转变为月中披露，货币政策操作透明度增加，沟通机制进一步完善，能够更为有效引导 和稳定市场预期。 他认为，在5月央行降准释放约10000亿元长期流动性基础上，近两个月央行连续实施买断式逆回购 净投放，一方面有助于在政府债券持续处于发行高峰期阶段，保持银行体系流动性充裕，另一方面也释 放了数量型货币政策工具持续加力的信号，有助于推动宽信用进程，强化 ...

截至2025年8月8日 13:49，30年国债ETF博时(511130)下跌0.11%，最新报价111.18元。拉长时间看，截至2025年8月7日，30年国债ETF博时近1年累计上涨 8.90%。 流动性方面，30年国债ETF博时盘中换手12.52%，成交18.81亿元，市场交投活跃。拉长时间看，截至8月7日，30年国债ETF博时近1周日均成交39.67亿元。 消息面上，央行公告，为保持银行体系流动性充裕，2025年8月8日，中国人民银行将以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展7000亿元买断式逆回购 操作，期限为3个月（91天）。据了解，8月份有4000亿元3个月期限和5000亿元6个月期限买断式逆回购到期，还有3000亿元MLF到期。尽管8月买断式逆回 购的到期规模大于此次央行买断式逆回购操作规模，但东方金诚指出，预计本月央行还将开展一次6个月期限的买断式逆回购操作，本月中期借贷便利 （MLF）也有望加量续作，保持中期流动性处于净投放状态。 华创证券固收研究回溯 2019-2024 年数据发现，8 月债市受政治局会议后政策方向影响显著，若无总量降息或风险偏好明显回落，债市表现往往偏弱。其列 举了 8 ...

王青表示，7月30日召开的中共中央政治局会议要求"加快政府债券发行使用"，8月份会继续处于政 府债券发行高峰期。此外，8月份存单到期规模较大，监管层持续强调"引导金融机构加大货币信贷投放 力度"。由此判断，8月份，在短期市场流动性继续处于较为稳定的充裕状态下，中期市场流动性有一定 收紧压力。因此预计8月份央行会继续通过MLF、买断式逆回购操作注入中期流动性。这一方面有助于 在政府债券持续处于发行高峰期阶段，保持银行体系流动性充裕，另一方面也释放了数量型货币政策工 具持续加力的信号，有助于推动宽信用进程，强化逆周期调节。 中信证券首席经济学家明明也认为，在维持流动性充裕诉求下，央行本月或延续今年6月份以来买 断式逆回购净投放的操作模式，不排除后续开展6个月期买断式逆回购操作的可能性。同时，8月份， MLF可能会延续此前小幅净投放的操作方式。 原标题：央行开展7000亿元买断式逆回购操作 本报记者 刘 琪 8月7日，中国人民银行（以下简称"央行"）发布公开市场买断式逆回购招标公告显示，为保持银行 体系流动性充裕，8月8日将以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展7000亿元买断式逆回购操 作，期限为3个月（91 ...

8月7日，人民银行发布公告，为保持银行体系流动性充裕，中国人民银行将于8月8日以固定数量、利率 招标、多重价位中标方式开展7000亿元买断式逆回购操作，期限为3个月（91天）。 王青进一步分析道，8月继续处于政府债券发行高峰期；此外，当月存单到期规模较大，监管层持续强 调"引导金融机构加大货币信贷投放力度"。"当月在短期市场流动性继续处于较为稳定的充裕状态下， 中期市场流动性有一定收紧压力。"王青由此认为，预计8月央行会继续通过MLF、买断式逆回购注入中 期流动性。这一方面有助于在政府债券持续处于发行高峰期阶段，保持银行体系流动性充裕，另一方面 也释放了数量型货币政策工具持续加力的信号，有助于推动宽信用进程，强化逆周期调节。 （文章来源：广州日报） 值得关注的是，8月分别有4000亿3个月期和5000亿6个月期买断式逆回购到期。对此，东方金诚首席宏 观分析师王青认为，8日央行开展7000亿3个月期逆回购，并不意味着本月买断式逆回购缩量，很可能意 味着月内央行还将开展一次6月个月期逆回购操作，预计当月两个期限品种的合计操作金额会在9000亿 到期量之上。另外，8月还有3000亿MLF到期，预计央行也会加量续作。 ...

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) will conduct a 700 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation on August 8, 2025, to maintain liquidity in the banking system [1] - The operation will have a term of 3 months (91 days) and is part of a broader strategy to ensure sufficient liquidity amid high government bond issuance [2] - Analysts expect that the total operation amount for August will exceed the 900 billion yuan of maturing reverse repos, indicating potential further liquidity injections [1][2] Group 2 - In July 2025, the PBOC conducted 1.4 trillion yuan in reverse repos, resulting in a net liquidity injection of 200 billion yuan [3] - The cumulative issuance of reverse repos reached 11.3 trillion yuan by the end of July, with 4.8 trillion yuan remaining outstanding [3] - The introduction of the buyout reverse repo tool is seen as a significant enhancement to China's monetary policy toolkit, potentially reducing the reliance on Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) for liquidity management [3]