格隆汇2月3日｜施罗德投资股票投资联席主管Alex Tedder表示，市场对人工智能(AI)泡沫的戒心持续提 高，投资者加强探究企业投入AI技术后的回报效益。这股趋势在未来几个月将更趋白热化，引发股票 市场波动与两极化。具备清晰变现模式的企业(例如谷歌的云端业务)获得市场支持，反之，回报前景不 明或欠缺说服力的公司(例如甲骨文于12月公布公司业绩后的情况)则面临市场质疑。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Nearly 3000 listed companies have reported their 2025 performance forecasts, reflecting the mixed fortunes across various industries, with 37.20% of companies expecting positive results, marking a 4 percentage point increase from 2024 [1] Group 1: Performance Forecasts - A total of 2844 companies have released their 2025 performance forecasts, with 1058 companies expecting positive outcomes, including increases and recoveries from losses [1] - The proportion of companies forecasting positive results has increased from 33.19% in 2024 to 37.20% in 2025, reversing a declining trend [1] Group 2: Economic Context - National Bureau of Statistics data indicates that profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in 2025 have shown positive growth, reversing a three-year decline from 2022 to 2024, signaling economic stabilization and recovery [1] Group 3: Industry Highlights - Key industries such as non-ferrous metals, electronics, public utilities, and automotive are performing particularly well, driven by the accelerated implementation of artificial intelligence (AI) [1] - The rise in prices of commodities like gold and copper, along with certain basic chemical products, combined with capacity release, has contributed to the positive performance forecasts of listed companies [1]

在投资者扎堆追逐、散户助推的市场氛围中，本周行情充分展现了市场信念能以多快的速度蒸发殆尽。 随着热门交易品种集体走弱，数万亿美元资金在市场中急速转向，极度集中的仓位几乎没有留下任何容 错空间。 贵金属市场首当其冲。黄金遭遇数十年来最剧烈下跌，白银跌幅更是刷新历史纪录。其他热门策略同样 表现不稳——包括看空美元、押注非美股市、追捧人工智能(AI)概念等交易。 尽管贵金属波动是本周市场的核心主线，但其背后传递出更深远的信号：当交易策略沦为市场共识，即 便是微小变化也可能引发超乎预期的剧烈震荡。 早在价格暴跌前，市场拥挤已现端倪。美国银行1月基金经理调查显示，做多黄金被视为全球市场最拥 挤的交易。持续狂热的需求一度将金价推高至长期趋势线44%以上，溢价水平创下1980年以来新高。 Truist Advisory Services首席市场策略师Keith Lerner对此直言："市场共识总是正确的——除非走向极 端。" 本周，这份市场共识的极限迎来了考验。 周五，美元指数创下5月以来的最大单日涨幅，重创美元空头;新兴市场股市相对美股的表现，也录得5 月以来的最差单日表现。市场裂痕其实在周四早盘已现端倪——金银价格在3 ...

智通财经APP获悉，在日本NAND闪存制造商铠侠看来，当其竞争对手——三星电子、SK海力士、美光科技——正忙于争夺高带宽内存(HBM)市场 时，其有机会抓住人工智能(AI)数据中心高密度存储领域的增长机遇。铠侠执行董事长斯泰西·史密斯表示，这些竞争对手并未大力投资增加固态硬 盘及其他先进NAND存储产品的产能，而这些产品正是云服务提供商为满足AI对数据的需求所必需的。他在接受采访时表示："我们在恰好的时机， 针对这些细分市场拥有了恰好的产品领导地位。" 史密斯表示，铠侠的目标是以"略快于"整体位增长率的速度提高产能(今年的位增长率估计约为20%)，以帮助这家闪存制造商获得市场份额。此次扩 产大部分将在本周宣布的新领导层领导下进行——63岁的执行副总裁太田浩雄将出任首席执行官一职，接替70岁的早坂信夫。 分析师Jake Silverman表示："SanDisk给出的第三季度盈利指引比预期高出163%，反映出NAND价格自去年10月以来快速攀升的持续上涨趋势。这推 动毛利率远超以往周期的峰值。未来1-2年内缺乏有意义的产能增加，表明在强劲的AI推理需求支撑下，NAND价格仍有进一步上涨空间，因为更大 的模型和推理 ...

高盛认为，市场对微软股价的负面反应，主要反映了投资者对连续几个季度高于预期的资本支出的焦 虑。375亿美元的单季支出(含融资租赁)表明微软正在积极构建AI基础设施。然而，这种投入并未立即 转化为Azure增长率的同比例跃升。 智通财经APP获悉，周四，微软(MSFT.US)盘前跌逾6%，报450.20美元。2026财年第二季度，尽管微软 (MSFT.US)营收与利润双双超出华尔街预期，且整体云业务营收首次突破500亿美元大关，但Azure云服 务收入增速的放缓以及创纪录的资本开支，引发了投资者对人工智能(AI)投资回报周期的忧虑。 分析称，这实际上是微软的一种战略取舍。公司正在将宝贵的算力资源优先分配给Copilot等战略性产品 以及内部研发项目，而非仅仅为了追求短期的Azure外部收入。高盛相信，这种策略最终将在技术堆栈 的多个层面推动更具战略意义的AI定位，并在中期内带来更好的回报。 财报显示，微软第二季度营收达到810亿美元，同比增长17%，高于市场预期1%；非GAAP每股收益 (EPS)为4.41美元，同比增长23%，超出市场预期5%。备受关注的Azure云业务在固定汇率下增长38%， 也略高于华尔街 ...

高盛认为，市场对微软股价的负面反应，主要反映了投资者对连续几个季度高于预期的资本支出的焦 虑。375亿美元的单季支出(含融资租赁)表明微软正在积极构建AI基础设施。然而，这种投入并未立即 转化为Azure增长率的同比例跃升。 分析称，这实际上是微软的一种战略取舍。公司正在将宝贵的算力资源优先分配给Copilot等战略性产品 以及内部研发项目，而非仅仅为了追求短期的Azure外部收入。高盛相信，这种策略最终将在技术堆栈 的多个层面推动更具战略意义的AI定位，并在中期内带来更好的回报。 财报显示，微软第二季度营收达到810亿美元，同比增长17%，高于市场预期1%；非GAAP每股收益 (EPS)为4.41美元，同比增长23%，超出市场预期5%。备受关注的Azure云业务在固定汇率下增长38%， 也略高于华尔街预期的37%。 尽管核心数据表现稳健，但投资者对微软不断攀升的资本支出表示担忧。数据显示，微软该季度资本支 出高达375亿美元，比市场普遍预期高出9%。市场原本期待如此巨额的投入能带来Azure增长率的显著 提速，但现有数据未能即时满足这一高涨的胃口。 周四，微软(MSFT.US)盘前跌逾6%，报450.20美 ...

Meta预计，2026年资本支出介乎1150亿至1350亿美元，中位数多过分析员预期的1106.2亿美元，几乎是 2025年资本支出722亿美元的两倍。预计2026年整体开支为1620亿至1690亿美元之间。集团估计，首季 经营收入介乎535亿至565亿美元，中位数高过市场预期的512.7亿美元。公司表示将在优先领域招聘， 尤其是人工智能(AI)方面。 格隆汇1月29日丨Meta公布第四季度业绩报告，经营利润录得247.5亿美元，按年增长5.9%；每股盈利报 8.88美元，优于分析员预期的8.23美元；经营收入录得598.9亿美元，胜于市场估计的585.9亿美元。集团 预计，首季销售额将介乎535亿至565亿美元之间，中位数高于分析员预期的514.1亿美元。Meta称，第 四季日活跃用户数量为35.8亿个，与华尔街预期一致。 ...

这一消息发布当日，SK海力士公布了2025年第四季度财报，受AI基础设施快速发展带动存储芯片需求 攀升影响，公司营收与营业利润均创下历史新高。 SK海力士同时宣布，将在美国设立一家AI解决方案公司(暂定名为AI Company)，以此挖掘AI领域新的 增长引擎。 据周二的报道称，韩国存储芯片制造商SK海力士已斩获英伟达(NVDA.US)最新人工智能(AI)与高性能 计算平台Vera Rubin的约70%高带宽内存(HBM)订单。 知情人士表示，SK海力士拿下的英伟达Vera Rubin平台HBM4产品订单占比达70%，这一比例远超此前 市场预估的50%。市场预测，2026年SK海力士将占据全球HBM4市场54%的份额，三星(SSNLF.US)与美 光(MU.US)则分别以28%和18%的占比紧随其后。目前，英伟达和AMD(AMD.US)也已完成对三星 HBM4产品的质量测试。 本周早些时候有报道称，SK海力士将成为微软(MSFT.US)新款AI芯片Maia200的先进存储芯片独家供应 商。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Microsoft reported strong financial results for Q2 of FY2026, exceeding Wall Street expectations in both revenue and profit, but concerns over slowing Azure growth and record capital expenditures led to a significant drop in stock price after hours [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the second quarter ending December 31, Microsoft achieved revenue of $81.27 billion, a year-over-year increase of approximately 17%, surpassing the market expectation of $80.3 billion. Net profit reached $38.46 billion, with earnings per share (EPS) of $5.16, significantly exceeding the expected $3.92. Adjusted EPS was $4.14, also above expectations [2]. - The substantial increase in net profit was partly due to changes in accounting treatment for the investment in OpenAI, contributing an additional $1.02 to EPS [2]. Cloud Business Performance - Microsoft's "Intelligent Cloud" segment, including Azure, generated revenue of $32.91 billion, a nearly 29% year-over-year increase, slightly above expectations. However, the growth rate of Azure and other cloud services raised concerns [3]. - Azure and other cloud services revenue grew by 38% year-over-year at constant currency, matching analyst predictions but slowing by one percentage point from the previous quarter. This deceleration disappointed investors betting on stronger cloud performance [3]. Capital Expenditures and AI Investment Concerns - Microsoft reported a significant increase in capital expenditures, reaching $37.5 billion, a 66% year-over-year rise, exceeding analyst expectations of $36.2 billion. Approximately two-thirds of this expenditure was allocated to computing chips for data centers to meet AI demand [4]. - CEO Satya Nadella noted an increase of nearly 1 gigawatt in computing capacity during the quarter. Despite the substantial investment, the company faces challenges in rapidly expanding sufficient computing capacity to meet demand [4]. - The "remaining performance obligations" (RPO), indicating future revenue from signed contracts, reached a record $625 billion, more than doubling year-over-year. Notably, 45% of this figure is attributed to agreements with OpenAI, highlighting Microsoft's reliance on the AI startup [4][5]. Other Business Segments - The productivity and business processes segment, including Office, Dynamics, and LinkedIn, generated revenue of $34.12 billion, a 16% year-over-year increase, exceeding expectations. Microsoft also reported that its AI assistant, Microsoft 365 Copilot, has gained 15 million commercial user seats, indicating initial adoption momentum [5]. - The personal computing segment, which includes Windows, Xbox, Surface, and Bing, reported revenue of $14.25 billion, a slight year-over-year decline of about 3%, slightly below expectations. Game revenue decreased by 9.5% [6]. Industry Competition and Stock Pressure - Microsoft is the first of the three major cloud service companies to report quarterly financial results, serving as a key indicator of the efficiency of tech giants' AI investments. The total capital expenditure in AI by Microsoft, Amazon, Google, and Meta is expected to exceed $500 billion this year [7]. - In contrast to Microsoft's post-earnings stock decline, Meta's stock rose significantly after announcing increased AI spending, reflecting differing market expectations regarding AI strategies. Meta's projected annual capital expenditures are between $115 billion and $135 billion, above analyst estimates [7]. - Analysts noted that Google's strong performance with its latest Gemini model and the emergence of competitors like Anthropic are putting pressure on Microsoft's AI business and traditional software [7]. - Microsoft's stock closed at $481.63, experiencing a drop of over 7% in after-hours trading following the earnings report. Over the past three months, Microsoft's stock has declined approximately 11%, underperforming the S&P 500 index, which rose by 1% during the same period [7].

Core Viewpoint - The World Economic Forum's report indicates that economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to slow down due to geopolitical uncertainties and ongoing trade and investment tensions [1] Economic Growth Expectations - The proportion of respondents expecting moderate economic growth in 2026 has decreased from 57% to 47% [1] - Conversely, the proportion of respondents anticipating weak economic growth has increased from 29% to 40% [1] Contributing Factors - The report highlights that a significant reason for the sluggish economic growth is the increasing debt burden, which poses a threat to the financial ecosystem in the region [1] - Other factors such as artificial intelligence (AI), inflation, and consumer prices are not expected to significantly alter the overall economic landscape [1]