近期市场情绪与风险偏好持续回升，股指波动变大，投资者想买又怕摔的情绪较之过去更为明显。我们邀 请中泰资管副总经理姜诚做客直播间，并对直播内容整理如下： 主播 基金经理跨越一轮牛熊周期战胜市场不算特别难，但每年战胜市场就很难。先请姜总复盘，如何评 价自己过去一年的投资成绩？ 姜诚 过去5年我们业绩的表现还不错。过去一年，如果与同行相比，我们的排名可能没那么靠前，但仍有 一定的绝对回报。我们在不断梳理组合内的具体标的，发现与买入初衷相比没有特别多的偏差，后续就基 本面的演进而言，有变得更好的，也有稍微艰难一些的因素。整体而言，我们对于组合过去一年表现出来 的状态比较满意。 从投资者角度出发，如果大家更倾向于用一段时间内的收益率来判断，那么对于我们表现的评价参考排名 即可。但从我个人角度看，我觉得还是可以及格的。如果给过去一年打分，我觉得有六七十分还是可以有 的。 展望未来，以目前组合的状态来看，我们的长期目标没有变。 我们依然希望以穿越牛熊周期的视角为持 有人带来相对稳健且超越市场的回报， 无论幅度大小。作为主动管理型基金经理，我们仍希望赚取超额 收益，目前这一目标没有调整，我们对于实现这一目标的信心也依然在。如 ...

一、交易提示 2025年半年报渐次揭晓，社保基金与公募基金持仓重叠度受瞩目。统计显示，两者已连续两季共同持有98只个股，集中于 医药生物、化工等高成长赛道；截至二季度末，这98股流通市值较一季度整体增长3.64%。尽管两者投资框架不尽相同， 但均秉持价值投资理念，市值稳步抬升彰显其选股功力；以医药生物为例，生物科技突破叠加健康需求升级，已成机构共 识的底层逻辑。 金融界8月21日消息,周四A股三大股指全天震荡收盘涨跌互现,其中,沪指涨0.13%报3771.1点,深成指跌0.06%报11919.76点,创 业板指跌0.47%报2595.47点,科创50指数涨0.09%报1149.15点;沪深两市全天成交额2.42万亿,成交额连续7个交易日超2万亿。 市场热点较为杂乱,个股跌多涨少,全市场超3000只个股下跌。 二、基金要闻 （1）08月21日新发基金共有2只，主要为债券型基金，其中英大安瑞6个月定期开放债券A募集目标金额达60.00亿元亿元； 基金分红35只，多为债券型，派发红利最多的基金是国泰纳斯达克100指数证券投资基金，每10份基金份额派发红利 28.0000元。 （2）增量资金跑步进场。最新统计显示，7 ...

↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者：管我财 来源：雪球 @管我财 是雪球人气用户， 资深投资研究达人， 相信低估逆向平均赢的价值投资观。在股市驰骋10余年，穿越牛熊。 以下是其投资观点总结分享： 底部顶部识别 1. 一大片的公司股东不断增持+公司回购+私有化收购 ， 一般都是底 。 即便是08年底最疯狂的时刻 ， 也就三四十家公司回购而已 。 相信价值 吧 ！ 8. 多数的傻瓜决定顶部 ， 少数的傻瓜决定㡳部 ， 成交量大幅减少甚至干涸 ， 是最有力的见底的指标 。 罗伯逊致投资人的信当中提出五个特征来说明市场触底 1. 回购占已发行股本的10% ， 占流通股的16% 。 6. 这样的观察是价值投资者们值得学习的 ， 全面而细致的市场观察 。 2. 当你发现满街都是便宜货 ， 实在太多选择 ， 不知道该买哪些时 ， 基本上你选对时了 。 3. 港股里 ， 成交量低迷时往往才是真正的底 ， 都跌到没什么人想卖了 。 4. 别人悲观时你必须悲观 ， 别人绝望时你才可以贪婪 ； 别人乐观时你必须比任何人更乐观 ， 别人贪婪 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in the Shanghai Composite Index above 3700 points has led to a significant rebound in the sales of equity funds, particularly index funds, which have seen a remarkable increase in sales efficiency and growth rates [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends - The sales efficiency of a certain brokerage firm for ordinary institutions and individuals increased by over 50% in July, with equity index funds experiencing a month-on-month growth exceeding 300% [1]. - Index funds have become the primary tool for investors to position themselves in the current market rally, indicating a shift in investment strategies [1][2]. Group 2: Investor Preferences - Investors favor index funds due to their ability to provide diversified investment across multiple stocks and sectors, minimizing the impact of any single stock or sector's poor performance on the fund's net value [2]. - The high transparency of index funds allows investors to easily track performance by monitoring the corresponding index, reducing the need for extensive research on fund holdings and strategies [2]. - Investment guru Warren Buffett has recommended broad-based index funds for ordinary investors, highlighting their potential for long-term returns that surpass those of most professional investors [2]. Group 3: Brokerage Strategies - Brokerages need to enhance their understanding of the strategic value of index funds in asset allocation for ordinary investors, transitioning from a trading mindset to a more strategic allocation approach [3]. - It is essential for brokerages to develop tailored asset allocation plans based on clients' risk tolerance, investment goals, and time horizons, focusing on long-term wealth preservation and growth [3]. - Brokerages should also strengthen their professional capabilities by establishing efficient index fund selection systems to avoid recommending funds with high tracking errors or small sizes that may face liquidation risks [3]. Group 4: Employee Development - Employee training is crucial for brokerages to expand their index fund business, as frontline staff serve as the key link between brokerages and investors [4]. - There is a need to enhance the understanding of basic investment concepts among sales personnel, ensuring they can provide rational and objective services to clients [4]. - Brokerages should restructure employee evaluation mechanisms to embed a long-term client benefit orientation throughout the assessment process, promoting a focus on sustainable investment strategies [4].

一、突然宣布降息！最近大家都在猜，美联储9月可能会突然宣布降息。为啥呢？美国最近公布的非农就业数据差得离谱，还把5月和6月的数据往下调了不 少。这事儿让特朗普很生气，直接说要换掉劳工局局长。现在美国的CPI数据也在往下掉，这给美联储降息开了个头。 再加上特朗普一直催美联储主席鲍威尔赶紧降息，9月降息的概率相当高。要是美联储真开始降息了，年底前估计还会再降一两次，把美国基准利率降到4% 以下。这样一来，美元指数估计还得跌，人民币和其他非美货币说不定能升值。再说，美联储作为全球央行的领头羊，它要是降息，其他央行估计也会跟着 动。这对我们央行来说是个好机会，可能会进一步降息、降准，对国内资本市场也是个好消息，股市说不定能跟着涨一涨。 三、大盘震荡反复，沪深两市全天成交2.42万亿。 我认为看空市场和对盘面不利信号的解读是两方面，如果看空市场了，那就对趋势产生了怀疑。而对盘面不利信号的解读，是觉得市场的节奏需要改变一 下，不要涨的那么急。 二、A股，开始冲击3800，为什么钱难赚了？ 谁也没有想到，昨天下午的逆袭，加上今天早上的快速上冲，沪指转眼之间就到了3787点，距离3800点一步之遥，或者已经开始冲击3800点 ...

Having always been a learning machine, I speak five languages, have worked as a sales agent, project manager, translator, computer consultant, software engineer, built a house with my own hands, published books and essays on literature, philosophy and art, have written for magazines of various kinds in different countries. After retiring early in 2004, little by little, I have become a fund manager for some friends and myself, following the principles of value investing laid out by Benjamin Graham, Phil Fis ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that the core of investment lies in discovering value rather than chasing price fluctuations, highlighting the resilience of the Chinese market amid structural economic transformations [2]. Group 1: Market Fundamentals - The current market fundamentals are developing beyond expectations, supported by rapid advancements in new productive forces and a recovery in traditional industry profits due to supply-side reforms [3][6]. - New productive forces are seen as a favorable growth direction, while traditional industries are expected to benefit from a new balance in supply and demand as capital expenditures decline [3][5]. Group 2: Industry Relationships - The relationship between industries is evolving from competition to collaboration, particularly as new productive forces drive consumption that can rejuvenate traditional sectors like real estate and automotive [5][8]. - The optimization of resource allocation, such as the "腾笼换鸟" (tenglong huan niao) strategy, has facilitated the reallocation of resources from traditional industries to emerging sectors [5]. Group 3: Economic Structure and Distribution - The shift towards "反内卷" (anti-involution) aims to adjust the distribution structure, favoring laborers in initial distribution and enhancing consumption potential in secondary distribution [7]. - The focus on high-end manufacturing and achieving a dominant position in the industry chain is crucial for China's economic transformation [7]. Group 4: Global Supply Chain Dynamics - Chinese companies are increasingly seeking opportunities abroad, particularly in Southeast Asia and Latin America, as they face challenges from U.S. tariffs [8]. - The long-term outlook suggests that China's position in the global supply chain will strengthen as it transitions to a consumer-driven economy, necessitating the development of high-value-added industries [8]. Group 5: Investment Framework - The investment framework is based on three key elements: economic moat, margin of safety, and the investor's circle of competence, which are essential for understanding value investment [13]. - A comprehensive approach to investment analysis includes macroeconomic factors, industry cycles, and the human element in understanding consumer needs [15].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the recent activities of social security funds in the A-share market, particularly their new investments, increased holdings, and reductions in certain stocks during the second quarter of 2025 [1][5][10] - Social security funds have entered 31 new stocks, increased holdings in 37 stocks, and reduced holdings in 36 stocks, maintaining their stake in 30 stocks, with a total holding of 2.22 billion shares valued at 38.58 billion yuan [1][5] - The largest holdings of social security funds are concentrated in the chemical, pharmaceutical, and electronics sectors, with significant investments in companies like Chunfeng Power, which saw a stock price increase of 83.53% year-to-date [3][5][7] Group 2 - The performance of Chunfeng Power in the first half of 2025 showed a revenue of 9.855 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.90%, and a net profit of 1.002 billion yuan, up 41.35% year-on-year [4][6] - Social security funds have shown a preference for the chemical industry, which has seen an 11.51% increase since July, indicating a potential recovery in the sector [7][10] - The annualized return of social security funds has exceeded 7%, with a historical average return of 7.36% over 24 years, outperforming many professional investment institutions [8][12] Group 3 - The investment strategy of social security funds is characterized by a dual approach, focusing on industries with low valuations and those in high growth cycles supported by national policies [10][11] - In the second quarter, social security funds reduced their holdings in 36 stocks, with significant reductions in companies like Shenhuo Co., indicating a strategy of profit-taking [11][12] - The total scale of the national social security fund is expected to reach approximately 3 trillion yuan by the end of 2024, reflecting its long-term investment strategy in the A-share market [12][14]

继申万菱信基金经理贾成东因"高买低卖"造成亏损被骂后，大成基金的百亿基金经理徐彦也被基民们骂了。 "1.2%的管理费，转出去又花了赎回费，买了20万元，一分没赚还赔了几千元，不知道公司是怎么考虑的，基金经理不想发产品可以不发，如果发了是不是 要对持有人负责，懒得骂人了。" 徐彦是大成基金的知名基金经理，目前是公司的首席权益投资官，今年二季度末管理规模193亿元，整体年化回报超13%。他属于价值投资派，坚持低估值 选股并长期持有。 与贾成东的新基金积极建仓不同，徐彦是因为在新基金成立后一直"空仓躲牛市"被骂的。徐彦的这只新基金是大成兴远启航。这只基金在今年3月11日成 立，至今的回报是-0.04%。 （大成兴远启航业绩表现情况） 截至二季度末，徐彦在这只基金上，只买了两只股票，一个是安图生物，一个是美团-W。这两只股票的二季度区间涨幅都是负的，其中安图生物 为-7.05%，而美团-W为-19.58%。 好在这两只股票的持仓市值只有区区700多万元，只占整体基金净值的0.73%。 在大成兴远启航二季报中，徐彦对自己未开始大规模建仓的原因进行过解释：（我管理的）其他基金自成立以来已有一定浮盈，且净值基本在历史新高附 ...

8月21日，沪8月21日，沪指创新高，正在冲击3800点。面对当前的市场行情，投资者们不禁疑问：行情 还能持续吗？当下又该如何布局投资？新浪证券特别连线"民间股神"、林园投资董事长林园，为投资者 们解析当下的炒股"秘籍"。 他指出，市场往往会引导投资者偏离价值投资轨道，最终留下一地鸡毛。即便是市场主流的核心资产， 也会出现波动，但与炒作的本质区别在于，这些优质资产能够持续赚钱并为股东提供回报，经过一段时 间后又会再创新高。 "这就是炒作与投资的本质区别，"林园强调，"我不会参与这种炒作行情。" 对于当前散户观望情绪，林园认为投资者正在逐步入场阶段。"他们都是趋势投资者，趋势好了就很快 进场，都是走一步看一步，不管是外资还是其他资金都是看趋势的。" 林园表示，目前市场系统性风险可控，但需要一个轰轰烈烈的大牛市。"目前这个情况还是太冷，不是 热。" 股市慢牛已成"共识"！牛市投资买什么？重磅投资福利来了，把握历史低价机遇！ 针对目前散户入场犹豫不决的情形，林园表示，股市每隔几年就会出现类似当前的市场情况，这种现象 自己经历过至少七八次。 责任编辑：韦子蓉 ...