近期，国内某头部矿企下属矿段发生安全事故，后续涉事企业多名管理人员被控制。企业公告称，涉事矿段过往年均利润占集团整体比例较低，对公司整体 业绩影响有限。市场中这类突发舆情常引发短期波动，但对普通投资者而言，更应聚焦于资金层面的客观信号，而非被舆情情绪左右。毕竟基本面事件仅为 市场短期波动的诱因，机构资金的交易行为特征，才是决定标的后续走势的核心变量。我从事量化数据研究十余年，深知多数投资者易陷入"舆情焦虑"，忽 略了资金行为的本质，而通过量化大数据拆解机构的成本构建逻辑，能更清晰地看清市场运行的底层规律。 一、成本优势的底层逻辑：机构交易的核心锚点 价值投资的核心并非单纯追逐标的质地，成本可控才是长期收益的基础。巴菲特在2023年股东信中提及，其通过7年时间分批布局某消费标的，将持仓成本 控制在极低区间，即便标的后续成长性放缓，仍凭借成本优势实现稳定收益。这一逻辑同样适用于机构投资者，其交易决策的首要锚点便是持仓成本的安全 性，而普通投资者往往更关注短期收益预期，忽略成本管控的重要性，这也是多数人难以建立稳定投资体系的核心原因。 从量化数据维度来看，机构的成本构建行为具有明显的客观特征，即通过在狭窄区间内反复 ...

我们坚守"长期主义"理念，践行价值投资之道，致力于实现客户、公司与社会的共生共赢。2025年，公 司公募管理规模重回两千亿元台阶，这不仅是市场对我们投研实力的认可，更包含了万千投资者的信 任。每一份信任都弥足珍贵，我们唯有勤勉尽责、不负所托。 我们秉持"金融为民"初心，积极履行让利惠民责任。在行业费率改革进程中，东方红资产管理主动探索 机制创新，成功发行两只采用分档收费模式的浮动费率基金，通过收益共享、风险共担的设计，切实追 求基金管理人与持有人的利益一致性，让更多人公平分享金融发展成果。 我们坚持守正创新、前瞻布局，在巩固主动权益、固收+等传统优势领域的同时，稳步推进指数量化、 FOF等战略性业务发展，并持续深耕机构客户与集合资产管理服务，不断完善多元化产品线与资产配置 策略，全面满足不同客群的差异化需求。 2026年是"十五五"规划的开局之年，是中国经济在新起点上谋突破、开新局的关键之年，更是资本市场 深化改革、提质增效的重要之年。我们坚信，中国经济底盘实、韧性足，资本市场改革的纵深推进将释 放更多制度红利，中国资产的全球吸引力必将持续提升，居民财富通过公募基金共享国家发展成果的大 趋势不可逆转。新的一年 ...

当下，全球经济格局深度调整、新质生产力加速崛起，商品市场正迎来前所未有的变革。 薛鹤翔认为，与传统周期中"黄金—工业金属—原油"的轮动路径相比，本轮轮动呈现出显著的独特性。 驱动源上，传统轮动由地产、基建等传统周期主导，而本轮轮动则由AI、新能源等新兴需求驱动；品 种结构上，铂、锡、电力等趋势新星加入"战局"，碳酸锂"反内卷"，镍、橡胶、棉花"低位掘金"，轮动 更加细分、多元；节奏把控上，保证金高频调整与跨市场联动加剧，轮动周期从年度级压缩至季度级， 对投资者的交易节奏提出了更高要求。 极端行情应对：风控纠偏下的市场新生态 2026年年初，贵金属市场上演了惊心动魄的一幕，白银价格单日暴跌超35%，创46年来纪录，芝商所一 周内两度调整贵金属期货保证金。对此，薛鹤翔表示，此次保证金调整呈现出"高频动态、精准差异 化"的显著特征，本质是极端行情下的风控纠偏。 市场基调之变：从政策托底到基本面兑现 "当前商品市场最核心的特征，是'万物通胀'背景下的结构分化与轮动加速。"薛鹤翔开门见山地表示， 站在百年维度，通胀回升、中美经济共振以及AI应用的蓬勃兴起，共同推动商品市场发生深刻变革。 曾经单一的品种行情逐渐退出舞台， ...

市场基调之变：从政策托底到基本面兑现 "当前商品市场最核心的特征，是'万物通胀'背景下的结构分化与轮动加速。"薛鹤翔开门见山地表示，站在百年维度，通胀回升、中美经济共振以及AI应 用的蓬勃兴起，共同推动商品市场发生深刻变革。曾经单一的品种行情逐渐退出舞台，取而代之的是"金融属性—产业属性"双轮驱动的全新格局。黄金、 工业金属、新能源等品种价格轮番领涨，芝商所保证金的"高频动态调整"成为市场常态，投资者对尾部风险的定价愈发敏感。 回顾2025年，市场呈现出"商品轮动启动、政策持续发力"的鲜明特征，政策托底与预期先行成为主导，商品价格更多地反映稳增长政策与流动性宽松带来 的红利。然而，步入2026年，市场基调迎来本质转变。"2026年是基本面兑现、轮动深化的一年，市场驱动力从'政策驱动'全面转向'供给稀缺+新兴需 求'驱动。"薛鹤翔认为，黄金、工业金属的趋势性行情将延续，特别是铂、锡等品种异军突起，成为新的市场主线。与此同时，保证金的高频调整倒逼市 场"去杠杆"，波动与风控一跃成为市场核心矛盾，投资者必须适应这一全新节奏。 轮动逻辑解码：三重共振催生独特路径 薛鹤翔表示，当前商品市场已完成从黄金到工业金属再到新能 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the significant investment by Duan Yongping in Nvidia, with a reported holding of 120 billion RMB and an 11-fold increase in position, sparking excitement among retail investors [1][4] - The discussion contrasts the investment strategies of seasoned investors like Duan Yongping with those of retail investors, emphasizing the importance of understanding the underlying business rather than following trends [4][10] Investment Analysis - Duan Yongping's portfolio includes major companies such as Apple, Berkshire Hathaway, and Nvidia, with Apple representing 63.33% of his holdings, which he has reduced by 16.25% [2] - Nvidia is a new addition to his portfolio, valued at approximately 6.99 billion RMB, indicating a strategic bet on AI infrastructure [2][4] - The article notes that Duan's investment in AI-related companies is minimal, suggesting a cautious approach to new ventures [4] Investment Philosophy - Duan Yongping emphasizes the concept of "circle of competence," advocating for investments within one's understanding and acknowledging the limits of one's knowledge [6][12] - The article stresses that true value investing involves thorough research and understanding of a company's future cash flows, rather than impulsive buying based on market trends [15] - It warns against the tendency of retail investors to mimic institutional investors without understanding the rationale behind their decisions, which can lead to significant losses [7][12]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant shift in investment strategy by Duan Yongping, moving from a long-term focus on Apple to a substantial increase in Nvidia holdings, reflecting a response to the evolving AI landscape [1][2] - Duan Yongping's reduction in Apple shares is not a bearish stance on the company but rather a reassessment of the boundaries of "certainty" in investment [3][4] - The article emphasizes that the traditional value investment framework is being challenged by the emergence of AI, which alters the competitive landscape and the definition of certainty in investments [5][6] Group 2 - The slowdown in the global smartphone market has further compressed Apple's growth potential, making it a predictable cash cow rather than a high-growth asset [5][6] - Duan Yongping's decision to reduce Apple holdings is framed as a rational choice based on risk-reward re-evaluation, indicating a departure from the "golden age" of consumer electronics [6][7] - The article discusses the transformation of Nvidia from a chip manufacturer to a foundational supplier of AI infrastructure, highlighting its new role in the AI era [9][10] Group 3 - The increase in Nvidia's position by over 11 times is seen as a redefinition of "new certainty" in investments, moving away from traditional high-volatility tech stocks [9][10] - The article argues that the definition of a "good company" must adapt to the technological paradigm shift, with Nvidia positioned as a critical player in the AI landscape [10][11] - Duan Yongping's strategy reflects a broader trend among investors to seek out companies that provide essential infrastructure in the digital age, rather than merely consumer products [11][12] Group 4 - The article posits that Duan Yongping's actions signify a personal evolution from a follower of Warren Buffett's investment philosophy to a defining figure in the new investment landscape shaped by AI [12][13] - It emphasizes that value investing is not static but must evolve with changing market dynamics, particularly in the context of technological advancements [14][15] - The conclusion suggests that the ability to redefine value in the context of new technologies will be crucial for investors in the coming years [16][17]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that "value" investing is significantly outperforming "growth" investing, particularly noted during the Q1 '25 period [2] - The analysis highlights a historical trend where similar performance was observed during the Liberation Day correction, suggesting a pattern in market behavior [2] - The article emphasizes that this trend may continue as the stock market shows signs of recovery after hitting a bottom in early [2] Group 2 - The spreadsheet analysis referenced in the article is typically shared on a blog, indicating a consistent approach to tracking investment performance [2] - The performance metrics suggest that investors may want to consider reallocating their portfolios towards value stocks in light of recent trends [2] - The article implies that understanding these market dynamics is crucial for making informed investment decisions moving forward [2]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to shift from an offensive strategy in 2025 to a defensive approach in 2026, influenced by various external uncertainties and market conditions [1][4]. Market Overview - In January 2026, the Shanghai Composite Index reached a high of 4190 points with a record single-day trading volume of 3.99 trillion yuan, and a turnover rate of 48%, marking a historical peak [1]. - The market has experienced an outflow of 700 billion yuan in ETFs, alongside significant volatility in precious metals, a collapse in overseas cryptocurrencies, and a sharp decline in US tech stocks, contributing to market uncertainty [1][4]. Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to avoid chasing high prices, adhere to a pyramid-shaped investment strategy, and focus on value investing by selecting companies with solid fundamentals and genuine investment value [2][5]. - High-dividend blue-chip stocks are identified as a core investment theme for 2026, offering attractive yields compared to traditional investment products like government bonds and bank deposits [2][3]. Sector Focus - Financials, dividend-paying stocks, and leading state-owned enterprises are highlighted as sectors with long-term investment value [3]. - The consumer sector is also expected to be a significant investment theme, benefiting from policies aimed at boosting domestic demand and consumption, although its valuation may not be as favorable compared to blue-chip stocks [3]. External Influences - Global market volatility, particularly from the decline of US tech stocks, the halving of Bitcoin prices, and fluctuations in precious metals, is anticipated to impact the A-share market significantly [4]. - The potential for capital inflow into A-shares and Hong Kong stocks exists if global market conditions stabilize, but the extent of this impact will depend on the level of external market volatility [4]. Asset Allocation - A cautious approach to bond market investments is recommended, with a balanced allocation among bonds, insurance, and equities [5]. - Investors are encouraged to maintain a certain proportion of cash assets to achieve a balanced investment strategy, allowing for both offensive and defensive maneuvers [5]. Long-term Outlook - The risk of a peak in US tech stocks is viewed as a major variable for the A-share market in 2026, prompting a shift from aggressive to defensive investment strategies if significant market corrections occur [5]. - Emphasis is placed on the importance of de-leveraging and adhering to principles of rational and value-based investing to achieve long-term stable returns [5][6].

编者按 辞蛇岁，迎马年。在2026年新春佳节之际，期货日报邀请各大机构研究大咖及相关专家，盘点当前大类 资产市场态势，掘金新一年核心配置机会与优质投资赛道。 2024年以来，A股市场走出一波"慢牛"行情。当前，市场对A股市场和股指期货的关注度依然不减。面 对这轮"慢牛"行情，普通投资者应如何进行资产配置？带着这个疑问，期货日报记者对深耕资本市场多 年的前券商首席经济学家李大霄进行了专访。 不过，他表示，A股市场具备相对稳定的支撑因素，如平准基金、长期资金持续入市及7000亿元ETF减 持带来的市场调节潜力，均有望助力A股市场维持相对稳定，具备走出独立行情的可能性。 谈及如何应对2026年的A股市场，李大霄提出三点建议：一是坚决不追高，这是高位市场中规避风险的 首要原则；二是坚持正金字塔建仓法则，避免"头重脚轻"的不合理布局，做到"脚大头小"，降低持仓风 险；三是坚守价值投资，优先选择上市公司增持、基本面扎实、有真实投资价值的标的，远离题材概念 虚无缥缈的高估值个股，拒绝"虚炒"，坚守"实干"标的。 在投资主线方面，李大霄提出了"高科技、高股息是大本营"的观点，明确以高股息为代表的蓝筹股将是 2026年A股市场 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the transition of China's economy into a new phase starting in 2026, focusing on total factor productivity and the capital market's role as a resource allocation engine rather than just a financing tool [3][12]. Investment Opportunities - Future investment opportunities are rooted in two main aspects: the resilience of industrial upgrades and the benefits of capital market reforms, particularly in shareholder returns [3][12]. - The article identifies three key sectors for investment in 2026: pharmaceuticals, technology, and advanced manufacturing [4][13]. Pharmaceuticals - The pharmaceutical industry is expected to see clearer innovation-driven and global competition trends, with a focus on Chinese innovative drug companies that have established strong technology platforms and successful international cases in areas like ADC and dual antibodies [4][13]. Technology - In the technology sector, AI models are evolving from mere tools to ecosystem builders, with increasing monetization capabilities. The focus in the Chinese market is on the progress of AI hardware localization, with expectations for more mature AI edge products by 2026 [4][13]. Advanced Manufacturing - The advanced manufacturing sector, particularly in humanoid robotics, is transitioning from thematic investment to performance verification, with a focus on companies that have established competitive advantages in products, technology, and customer relationships [5][14]. - In the smart vehicle sector, the emphasis is on leading companies with high barriers to entry and strong global competitiveness, especially in batteries and glass, while closely monitoring developments in smart driving technology [5][14]. Market Trends - The Chinese capital market is experiencing structural differentiation as it recovers from the bottom, with a shift from valuation recovery to profit growth driving market trends in 2026 [15]. - The article advocates for a disciplined approach to value investing, suggesting that the best opportunities often arise from contrarian views in volatile markets [15].