Core Insights - In June 2025, global central banks continued to favor gold, with a net increase of 22 tons in official gold reserves, marking a slight month-on-month rise for the third consecutive month [1] - In the first half of 2025, global central bank net gold purchases totaled 123 tons, showing a slight decrease compared to the same period in 2024 [1] - The National Bank of Poland emerged as the largest net buyer of gold in 2025, acquiring 67 tons, followed by the Azerbaijan State Oil Fund and the National Bank of Kazakhstan [1] Central Bank Activities - Uzbekistan's central bank was the largest net buyer in June, while Kazakhstan's International Bank also made significant purchases [1] - The Monetary Authority of Singapore was the only net seller in June, selling 6 tons of gold [1] - As of the end of July, the People's Bank of China had gold reserves of 2,300.41 tons, with an increase of 1.86 tons, marking nine consecutive months of gold accumulation [1]

智通财经APP获悉，世界黄金协会发布的数据显示，截至7月底，中国人民银行黄金储备量2300.41吨，环比 增加1.86吨；连续九个月增持黄金。2025年6月，全球官方黄金储备净增22吨，已连续第三个月环比小幅上 升。2025年上半年全球央行净购金量达123吨，较2024年同期小幅下降。 2025年6月 全球官方黄金储备净增 已连续第三个月环比小幅上升 2025年上半年 全球央行净购金量达 较2024年同期小幅下降 150 100 50 fine 0 -50 -100 -150 购金总量 售金总量 净值 6月,乌兹别克斯坦央行是 本月最大的净买家* 吉尔吉斯斯坦 乌兹别克斯坦 哈萨克斯坦 + Q Inn +7 Int 捷克 +7.00 士直其 加纳 菲律宾 -7 III 新加坡 - I URLD 放眼全球 本月最大的净买家为乌兹别克斯坦央行 哈萨克斯坦国家银行购金规模同样显著 新加坡金融管理局(MAS)是唯一的净卖家 本月净售黄金6吨 全球央行购金总量略低于2024年的同期水平 波兰国家银行是 2025年迄今为止最大的净买家 净购金67吨 其次是阿塞拜疆国家石油基金和 哈萨克斯坦国家银行 0 20 80 -20 ...

Core Insights - International gold prices are rising due to expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, geopolitical risks, and a weakening dollar, with spot gold surpassing $3,380 per ounce and a weekly increase of nearly 3.5% [1] - Citibank has raised its target price for gold to $3,500 per ounce over the next three months, indicating strong long-term bullish sentiment [1] Monetary Policy and Dollar Trends - The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut is fueled by disappointing U.S. non-farm payroll data, with a 92.4% probability of a 25 basis point cut in September and a potential 50 basis point cut in October, which diminishes the dollar's attractiveness and benefits gold [4] - Global central bank gold purchases increased by 34% year-on-year in Q1 2025, reaching 240 tons, with China increasing its holdings for eight consecutive months, supporting long-term gold prices [4] Geopolitical and Risk Aversion Factors - Tensions in the Middle East, including missile launches from Iran towards Israel and Israel's full occupation of Gaza, have heightened risk aversion, pushing gold prices higher [5] - Trade tensions, such as Trump's tariffs on countries like Russia and India, have raised supply chain concerns, making gold a preferred safe-haven asset [6] Technology and Consumer Demand - Emerging technologies like brain-computer interfaces and nanochips are increasing industrial demand for gold, with predictions of a potential increase in annual demand by thousands of tons in five years [7] - There is a divergence in consumer behavior, with traditional wedding demand remaining strong while some younger consumers are shifting towards "renting" gold jewelry; investors are adopting a wait-and-see approach, hoping for price corrections [7] Market Dynamics - A psychological barrier exists where consumers tend to buy when prices are rising, leading to a 30%-40% drop in sales when prices fall, as they anticipate lower prices [8] - Merchants' promotional efforts, such as reducing processing fees, have limited impact since these fees only account for 1%-2% of the total price [9] Price Expectations - Current gold prices (approximately 780 RMB per gram) are significantly higher than the beginning of the year (around 620 RMB per gram), with consumer price expectations centered around 600-700 RMB per gram [10] Investment and Consumer Strategies - Investors are advised to be cautious of technical pullback risks, particularly if prices fall below $3,200 per ounce, and to avoid high-leverage operations [11] - Long-term strategies include investing in gold ETFs or accumulating gold, with a recommended allocation of no more than 10% of household assets to hedge against inflation and currency depreciation [12] - Consumers in need should focus on wholesale markets for gold priced by gram and avoid high processing fee jewelry [13] - Some consumers are taking advantage of high prices to sell back gold, with ordinary jewelry being discounted by about 10 RMB per gram and high-weight gold bars only 2-3 RMB per gram [14] Future Trends Forecast - Short-term factors driving gold prices include geopolitical risks and interest rate cut expectations, with a target of $3,500 per ounce [15] - Mid-term price corrections may occur if trade tensions ease, potentially pulling prices back to the $2,700-$3,000 range [16] - Long-term prospects suggest a high probability of gold prices exceeding $4,000 due to central bank purchases and weakening dollar credibility [16]

中国人民银行数据表明，央行二季度净购金6吨，上半年累计增储19吨，截至6月，连续8个月增持黄金。 不过，世界黄金协会发布最新的二季度全球黄金需求报告却显示，市场购金主力军的全球央行的购买量有所放 缓，全球央行在二季度净购金166吨，增储量同比减少了21%。 全球央行购金速度放缓除了当前金价处于较高位置之外，对于金价上涨的前景表明了并不统一的立场。 日内收盘，沪金上涨0.26%，报收782.5元/克。 图片来源：曲合APP 前期出于对贸易冲突的担忧部分资金选择押注黄金多头，随着 8 月 1 日到来前或有更多国家和美国达成贸易协 议对市场情绪影响减弱对美元资产形成支撑使价格承压，但 7 月美国经济数据呈现恶化再次提振9 月美联储降 息可能性，政治局势也使避险需求再次升温，未来美国通胀等相关数据对市场的影响将不断增加带来单反波 动。技术面上国际金价持续盘中形成三角形态在 3450 美元的前高存在阻力缺乏较强突破的驱动，金价连跌后快 速修复整体仍维持偏强震荡，多单在 3300 美元（770 元）上方继续持有。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold ETF (518880) experienced a slight decline of 0.46% to 7.354 CNY, with a trading volume of 10.67 billion CNY, indicating a mixed sentiment in the market [1][2]. Fund Performance - Over the past 10 trading days, the gold ETF saw a net outflow of 23.17 billion CNY, while the last 5 days recorded a net outflow of 17.42 billion CNY, followed by a net inflow of 5.13 billion CNY in the last 2 days [1]. - As of July 28, 2025, the circulating scale of the gold ETF reached 576.41 billion CNY [1]. Market Analysis - Long-term outlook remains bullish for precious metals due to ongoing global central bank gold purchases and persistent supply-demand gaps in silver, despite short-term bearish pressures from easing risk aversion as global trade negotiations progress [2]. - The recent passage of the "Big and Beautiful" bill by the U.S. Senate and the potential increase in fiscal deficit rates are expected to provide long-term support for gold prices [2]. Product Overview - The Huaan Gold ETF, established on July 18, 2013, is one of the earliest gold ETFs in China, benchmarked against domestic gold spot price returns, and has established a leading position in terms of scale and performance [3]. - Investors are advised to consider phased investment or dollar-cost averaging strategies when participating in the Huaan Gold ETF (518880) and its linked funds [3].

基本面： 周一（7月28日）亚盘时段，现货黄金小幅低开后守住此前跌幅表现清淡，盘中最低测试至3319.12美元/盎司，目前暂交投于3333美元附近。因美国和欧洲 达成贸易协议，令黄金避险需求进一步下降，但金价仍受到部分逢低买盘支撑，因美元走强、美欧贸易协议的乐观情绪的压制，上周五金价收跌近1%，为 连续三个交易日下跌，收报3336.49美元/盎司。 上周，美元指数从逾两周低点反弹，显著推高了黄金对海外买家的成本。美元的走强不仅源于美国经济数据的稳健表现，还得益于市场对美欧贸易谈判乐观 情绪的消化。尽管短期内受到经济数据和贸易协议预期的支撑，美元在过去一周仍录得一个月来最大单周跌幅。美国股市标普 500 指数和纳斯达克指数上周 五创下收盘纪录新高，受助于对美国可能很快与欧盟达成贸易协议的乐观情绪。欧盟执委会主席冯德莱恩于周日在苏格兰与美国总统特朗普会晤。此前，欧 盟官员和外交官表示，美欧预计周末将达成一项框架贸易协议。特朗普此前表示，与欧盟达成贸易协议的可能性为"50%"。 当地时间7月27日，美国总统特朗普表示，美国已与欧盟达成15%税率的关税协议。特朗普表示，欧盟将比此前增加对美国投资6000亿美元，欧盟将 ...

Core Viewpoint - COMEX gold futures experienced fluctuations but maintained above the $3400 mark, indicating a recovery in market sentiment amid uncertainties in trade negotiations and a weakening dollar [1][3]. Group 1: Gold Price Movements - On July 21, COMEX gold futures surged by 1.63%, reaching $3410 per ounce, marking a five-week high [1]. - On July 22, gold futures opened at $3410.7 per ounce, peaked at $3416.3, and then fell slightly to $3403.1, a decrease of 0.1% [1][2]. - The average price recorded was $3407.0, with a slight decline of $3.4 [2]. Group 2: Market Influences - The rise in gold prices is attributed to increased market risk aversion and a weakening dollar and U.S. Treasury yields ahead of the August 1 tariff negotiation deadline [3]. - Analysts suggest that four key factors will influence whether gold can surpass $3500: central bank purchasing, geopolitical tensions, inflation data, and dollar performance [3]. Group 3: Central Bank Demand - A recent survey by the World Gold Council indicated that 95% of central banks expect to increase gold holdings in the next 12 months, the highest percentage since the survey began in 2019, up 17 percentage points from 2024 [3]. Group 4: Future Price Predictions - Citigroup forecasts that gold prices will stabilize between $3100 and $3500 per ounce in Q3, with a potential fundamental weakness in the market due to declining investment demand thereafter [4].

Core Viewpoint - The performance of gold in the second half of the year will be influenced by four key factors, with the potential to challenge the $3500 mark and the historical highs set in the first half of the year [1]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - International gold prices rose over 1.5%, surpassing $3400 per ounce, marking a five-week high due to increased market risk aversion and weakening of the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields [1]. - The dollar index fell by 0.6%, dropping below the 98 mark, while the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield touched a one-week low, indicating a supportive environment for gold [2]. - Concerns over U.S. debt growth and further tariff updates are drawing attention to gold as a focal point, with prices appearing well-supported [2]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - Global central bank enthusiasm is a significant driver, as central banks have been major buyers of gold, and their purchasing decisions can quickly impact the market [4]. - Geopolitical events often lead investors to shift from stocks and bonds to precious metals, with potential crises in July being a point of concern [4][5]. - Inflation data is crucial, as any sharp changes could signal economic weakness, prompting investors to increase their gold holdings [5]. - The historical negative correlation between gold and the dollar suggests that the outlook for gold prices will be influenced by the dollar's performance, which has seen a decline of over 10% in the first half of the year [5].

Core Viewpoint - The current dynamics of gold prices are influenced by various factors including the strength of the US dollar, geopolitical tensions, and central bank activities, leading to a mixed outlook for gold in the short and long term [3][4]. Group 1: Current Gold Prices - Domestic gold price (99.95%) is quoted at 778.1 CNY per gram, up by 0.36% [1]. - International gold price is reported at 3356.7 USD per ounce, down by 0.05% [2]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - **Dollar and Treasury Factors**: The recent rise in the US dollar index, reaching a two-year high of 105, along with strong economic data, has increased the cost of gold priced in dollars, leading to decreased demand. Additionally, rising long-term US Treasury yields have diminished the appeal of non-yielding gold [3]. - **Geopolitical and Trade Factors**: Ongoing geopolitical tensions, including the US's tariff policies and conflicts in regions like Ukraine and the Middle East, have heightened market fears, increasing the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3]. - **Central Bank and Investor Factors**: A global trend of central banks accumulating gold has emerged, with a net purchase of 24 tons by February 2025. This shift in supply and demand dynamics, along with a surge of younger investors entering the gold market, has contributed to increased market volatility [3]. Group 3: Price Outlook - Short-term gold prices are expected to be volatile due to the opposing pressures from a strong dollar and rising Treasury yields, contrasted with support from geopolitical tensions. Long-term prospects remain positive due to ongoing central bank purchases and persistent geopolitical risks, although changes in Federal Reserve interest rate expectations and economic data will significantly impact future gold prices [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around the impact of U.S. tariff policies under President Trump, which have led to increased market uncertainty and a rise in gold prices as a safe-haven asset [1][2] - Trump signed an executive order extending the delay of "reciprocal tariffs" from July 9 to August 1, affecting goods from at least 14 countries, with tariffs ranging from 25% to 40% [1][2] - The uncertainty surrounding tariff increases is causing concerns about rising supply chain costs in the U.S., potentially leading to "stagflation," where economic growth slows while prices continue to rise [2] Group 2 - As of June 30, China's gold reserves increased to 73.9 million ounces (approximately 2,298.55 tons), marking the eighth consecutive month of gold accumulation [2] - The World Gold Council's survey indicated that 95% of central banks expect to continue increasing their gold reserves in the next 12 months, the highest percentage since the survey began in 2019 [4] - The recent U.S. tax and spending bill, known as the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act," is expected to increase U.S. debt by $4.1 trillion over the next decade, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability [10][11] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates has led to market speculation about potential rate cuts later in the year, with expectations for two cuts by the end of 2025 [11][12] - The ongoing uncertainty in the U.S. economic environment, including the impact of tariffs and fiscal expansion, is complicating the Fed's decision-making process regarding interest rates [13][14] - Central banks' continued accumulation of gold is seen as a significant support for gold prices, especially in the context of a weakening U.S. dollar due to fiscal policies [14]