Core Viewpoint - TSMC's investment in the U.S. will not affect its existing projects in other regions, countering reports from The Wall Street Journal regarding delays in its Japan expansion due to U.S. tariffs [1][2]. Group 1: U.S. Investment and Expansion - TSMC is taking U.S. tariff threats seriously and is reallocating resources to accelerate its investment in Arizona, where a large chip manufacturing center is under construction [3]. - The company has committed to a $100 billion investment to build three additional fabs, two integrated circuit assembly plants, and a research center [6]. Group 2: Japan Expansion - TSMC's first wafer fab in Kumamoto, Japan, began production at the end of last year, while the second fab's construction has been slightly delayed due to local transportation issues [5]. - Although there is no confirmed timeline for the second fab's construction, reports suggest it may face further delays [6]. Group 3: Global Operations - TSMC is also constructing a new fab in Dresden, Germany, which is expected to start production in 2027 [7]. - The company’s global expansion strategy is influenced by various factors, including customer demand, business opportunities, operational efficiency, government support, and overall costs [1].

Core Viewpoint - The company anticipates moderate growth in revenue in the second half of the year, with a healthy overall growth outlook for the year despite uncertainties related to tariffs and currency fluctuations [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In May, the company's consolidated revenue was approximately 3.55 billion, a decrease of 3.38% month-over-month and a decrease of 0.56% year-over-year [1]. - For the first five months of the year, consolidated revenue reached approximately 19.17 billion, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 15.57% [1]. - The company's net profit after tax for Q1 was approximately 2.41 billion, representing a quarter-over-quarter increase of 30.7% and a year-over-year increase of 89.8%, marking a nine-quarter high [1]. Group 2: Market Conditions and Customer Demand - The company has observed a "dulling" effect of tariff uncertainties, with customers showing strong demand and placing urgent orders, particularly in the automotive, industrial, and consumer electronics sectors [2]. - Despite the challenges posed by tariffs, customer orders from IDM and IC design companies have increased, indicating a positive market outlook [2]. Group 3: New Facility Developments - The construction of the 12-inch fab in Singapore is progressing well, with production expected to begin in Q1 2027, potentially ahead of schedule [3]. - The company plans to move equipment into the facility in Q4 and anticipates producing samples for customers in the second half of 2026 [3]. - There is significant interest from customers regarding the new facility, and recruitment for the plant is proceeding smoothly, attracting global talent [4].

Core Viewpoint - The potential implementation of a 25% tariff on semiconductor chips by the Trump administration could significantly harm the U.S. economy, leading to a projected GDP loss of $1.4 trillion over ten years, which is approximately 4.8% of the GDP in the tenth year [1]. Economic Impact - The ITIF report estimates that the first year of the tariff could result in a 0.18% decline in U.S. economic growth [1]. - Cumulative tax revenue losses for the U.S. government could reach $165 billion over ten years, exceeding the revenue generated from the tariffs by several billion dollars [1]. Consumer Impact - The average American's standard of living is projected to decrease by $122 in the first year due to the tariff, accumulating to $4,208 over ten years [1]. Industry-Specific Effects - The increased cost of semiconductors will raise the expenses associated with training AI models, potentially diminishing U.S. competitiveness in the AI sector, while China may gain a leading position due to substantial subsidies in AI and semiconductor industries [1]. - In the automotive sector, the report indicates that the value of semiconductors in each vehicle could rise to $4,000 by 2030, an increase of 800% from 2020, which will particularly impact the electric vehicle industry that requires significantly more semiconductors [2]. - The U.S. semiconductor manufacturing industry is still in its early stages, producing only 12% of the global semiconductor supply, which could lead to supply chain challenges if automotive manufacturers shift to domestic suppliers [2]. Supply Chain Considerations - TSMC's Arizona subsidiary has urged the U.S. government to carefully consider the implications of semiconductor tariffs on the overall supply chain and national security interests, seeking potential tax exemptions [2].

Core Viewpoint - TSMC has issued a strong warning against potential U.S. semiconductor tariffs, stating that such measures could jeopardize its investment plans in Arizona, which amount to $165 billion [1][3][4]. Group 1: TSMC's Investment Plans - TSMC plans to invest $165 billion in the U.S., which includes the construction of six advanced wafer fabs, two advanced packaging plants, and one R&D center, marking the largest single foreign direct investment in U.S. history [3][4]. - The company emphasizes that its investment will create significant job opportunities, including 40,000 jobs during the construction phase and thousands of semiconductor manufacturing and R&D positions once operational [4]. Group 2: Response to U.S. Tariffs - TSMC's letter to the U.S. Department of Commerce strongly suggests that any tariffs or import controls should not undermine U.S. national security goals, including TSMC's investment plans in Arizona [3][4]. - The letter is viewed as one of TSMC's most forceful responses to the potential tariffs, indicating that the company might reconsider its investment if tariffs are imposed [3][4]. Group 3: Economic Impact and Industry Reactions - TSMC's investment is expected to generate $200 billion in indirect economic benefits for the U.S. [4]. - The Taiwanese media and political figures have expressed concern over the government's response to TSMC's position, questioning the adequacy of support from the Taiwanese authorities in light of U.S. pressures [5][6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. semiconductor industry is advocating for the reduction of tariffs on semiconductor manufacturing inputs, highlighting the potential cost increases associated with tariff hikes [1] Group 1: Industry Concerns - The U.S. Semiconductor Association indicates that a 1% increase in tariffs on semiconductor manufacturing inputs could lead to a 0.64% rise in total construction costs for factories [1] - The semiconductor industry is urging the U.S. Department of Commerce to alleviate tariff burdens amid an ongoing Section 232 investigation into the global semiconductor sector [1] Group 2: Company Actions - Leading companies such as TSMC and Intel have submitted comments to the U.S. Department of Commerce in early May, opposing the imposition of tariffs on semiconductors and related equipment and materials [1] - These companies are advocating for policies that encourage semiconductor production rather than imposing additional financial burdens [1]

Core Viewpoint - The proposed semiconductor tariffs by the U.S. Department of Commerce could significantly impact the semiconductor industry, particularly affecting the cost of building and operating fabs, with potential increases in investment requirements for major companies like TSMC [1][2]. Impact of Semiconductor Tariffs - The semiconductor industry is preparing for tariffs that may take effect as early as June, with major players like SK Hynix and HP involved in the public consultation process [1]. - A 1% increase in tariffs on semiconductor manufacturing inputs could raise the total cost of building a fab by 0.64% [1]. - Under a 10% tariff scenario, TSMC would need an additional investment of $6.4 billion to meet its initial $100 billion target [1]. - The cost of building and operating fabs in the U.S. is already 30% to 50% higher than in Asia, and tariffs on equipment and materials would exacerbate this disparity [1]. - For every $1 increase in chip prices, the end products containing semiconductors would need to increase by $3 to maintain existing profit margins [1]. Characteristics of Affected Chips - Mature node chips, which account for over 80% of global production but only about 40% of revenue, are expected to be the most affected by the tariffs [2]. - These mature chips support downstream industries valued at over $10.8 trillion, making the tariffs a potentially disruptive force in the global tech ecosystem [2]. - Tariffs may vary based on the "wafer origin," meaning the actual production location of the chips, with rates potentially ranging from 25% to 100% [2].

韩国财政部：将就半导体关税问题积极与美国沟通。 ...

半导体高质量发展创新成果征集 5月5日有消息传出，美国特朗普政府可能最快于本周公布针对半导体加征关税的细节，市场预估税率区 间可能高达25%至100%，并且新规则中不排除以晶圆制造地（waferout）作为源产地来加征关税。这对 台积电、三星等产能集中在亚洲地区的晶圆制造大厂，以及英伟达、苹果、高通、联发科等依赖于亚洲 晶圆代工产能的芯片设计厂商，它们未来的发展似乎蒙上了一层阴影。 回顾美国在半导体领域的一系列动作，早在2024年9月13日，美国政府便宣布在原有对华301关税的基础 之上，对进口自中国的部分钢铁产品、铝产品、半导体等一系列"战略性产品"分阶段（2024年至2026 年）加征关税。其中，2025年半导体的关税税率从25%提高到50%，涉及太阳能电池板使用的多晶硅和 硅晶圆。进入2025年，4月1日，美国商务部下属部门工业与安全局（BIS）根据《1962年贸易扩展法》 第"232条款"赋予的权力，对进口半导体及其衍生产品、进口药品及药用成分发起国家安全调查，并征 求公众意见。此次调查主要聚焦外国补贴、供应链依赖风险、美国国内产能瓶颈等14项细节，旨在确定 进口半导体及其衍生产品对美国国家安全的影响 ...

这也将对台积电、三星等产能集中在亚洲地区的晶圆制造大厂，以及NVIDIA、苹果、高通、联发科等 依赖于亚洲晶圆代工产能的芯片设计厂商带来负面影响。 今年4月14日，美国商务部下属部门工业与安全局（BIS）通过联邦公报官网宣布，根据《1962年贸易 扩展法》第"232条款"赋予的权力，对进口半导体及其衍生产品、进口药品及药用成分发起国家安全调 查，并征求公众意见。 针对进口半导体及其衍生产品的调查，主要聚焦外国补贴、供应链依赖风险、美国国内产能瓶颈等14项 调查细节，希望确定进口半导体及其衍生产品对美国国家安全的影响。 其中包括半导体基板和裸晶圆、传统芯片、尖端芯片、微电子和SME组件等产品。衍生产品包括含有 半导体的下游产品，例如构成电子供应链的产品。相关利益关系人可在5月7日结束调查前提交意见。 涵盖外国补贴、供应链依赖风险、美国国内产能瓶颈等核心议题，并希望在当地时间5月7日前征询完美 国大众意见后结束调查。这也意味着美国政府可能最快将于本周三以后公布半导体关税细节。 国芯网[原:中国半导体论坛] 振兴国产半导体产业！ 不拘中国、 放眼世界 ！ 关注 世界半导体论坛 ↓ ↓ ↓ 5月6日消息，美国特朗普政 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a neutral investment rating to the company, indicating expectations of performance within a range of -10% to +10% relative to the benchmark index over the next six months [52]. Core Insights - The company reported Q1 2025 revenue of NT$578.6 billion, a quarter-over-quarter decrease of 4.2% but a year-over-year increase of 5.9%. The gross margin was 26.7%, down 3.7 percentage points from the previous quarter [2][3][8]. - The company expects wafer shipments to increase by 5%-7% in Q2 2025, with gross margins projected to recover to around 30% and capacity utilization returning to approximately 70% [4][20]. - Demand in the consumer electronics sector showed strong growth in Q1 2025, with expectations for moderate rebounds in various downstream demands in Q2 2025 [21]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Q1 2025 Overall Performance - **Revenue and Shipment**: The company achieved consolidated revenue of NT$578.6 billion in Q1 2025, with wafer shipments remaining stable compared to the previous quarter and a 12% increase year-over-year [3][8]. - **Gross Margin**: The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 26.7%, impacted by a decrease in average selling prices and disruptions due to a recent earthquake [8][11]. - **Capacity Situation**: Capacity was affected by an earthquake and annual maintenance, but is expected to normalize in Q2 2025 [11]. 2. Company Q2 2025 Guidance - **Performance Guidance**: The company anticipates a 5%-7% increase in wafer shipments for Q2 2025, with stable ASP and a recovery in gross margin to about 30% [20]. - **Demand Outlook**: Strong growth in consumer electronics is expected to continue, while other sectors may experience fluctuations [21]. 3. Revenue Structure - **By Region**: In Q1 2025, revenue from Asia accounted for 66%, North America 22%, Europe 7%, and Japan 5% [12][13]. - **By Application**: The consumer sector contributed 34% to revenue, while communication and computer sectors remained relatively stable [16][17]. - **By Process Technology**: Revenue from 22nm and 28nm processes reached 37%, with a significant increase in demand for 22nm products expected in the coming quarters [18][19].