Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Inflation is lower than expected, and the trading of overseas interest rate cut expectations continues. The lower-than-expected CPI further strengthens the market's expectation of an interest rate cut next week, but the growth of non-sticky CPI also prompts the market to readjust its expectation of an interest rate cut in December [3][12]. - The overall performance of major overseas markets shows different trends. US Treasury yields generally decline over time as the FOMC meeting approaches, Japanese government bonds rise slightly overall, and German government bond yields have the largest single - week increase in six weeks [3][4][19]. - Global major stock markets generally strengthen, energy in commodities leads the rise while precious metals fall from high levels, and the US dollar is stable while non - US currencies are generally under pressure [5][20][21]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. This Week's Overseas Macroeconomic and Interest Rate Review 1.1 Macroeconomic Indicator Comments - **Inflation**: In September, the CPI data was lower than expected. The unadjusted CPI year - on - year was 3.0%, lower than the forecast of 3.1% and higher than the previous value of 2.9%; the core CPI year - on - year was 3.0%, lower than the forecast of 3.1% and the previous value of 3.1%. The market responded positively, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing above 47,000 for the first time, rising 472 points or 1%. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 also reached new highs, providing room for an interest rate cut [1][10]. - **Real Estate**: In September, the annualized total of existing home sales in the US reached a seven - month high, with 4.06 million units, in line with the forecast. Although the decline in mortgage rates may boost home sales, affordability remains a challenge for many potential homebuyers, especially low - and middle - income families, due to unclear economic prospects and reduced employer recruitment under the background of import tariffs [1][10]. - **Business Index**: As of the week of October 17, US crude oil inventories decreased due to strong refining demand. The EIA crude oil inventory decreased by 961,000 barrels, significantly lower than the expected increase of 2.2 million barrels and the previous value of 3.524 million barrels. Affected by factors such as increased US sanctions on Russia and rising refining demand, crude oil prices soared. The October Markit manufacturing (preliminary) and services PMI (preliminary) were both higher than expected and previous values, with the new order flow growth rate reaching a new high this year. However, due to factors such as tariff concerns, weak export demand, and increased unsold inventory, business confidence has fallen to a three - year low [2][11]. 1.2 Review of Major Overseas Market Interest Rates - **US**: This week (October 17 - 24, 2025), the yields of US Treasury bonds showed different changes. The overall yield of US Treasury bonds declined as the FOMC meeting approached. Before the release of inflation data, the 10 - year yield rose, and after the CPI was lower than expected, the yield fell and fluctuated around 4.0%. The lower - than - expected CPI strengthens the market's expectation of an interest rate cut next week, but also makes the market readjust its expectation of an interest rate cut in December. As of now, the proportion of the expected target interest rate in December remaining at 375 - 400 has increased from 0% to 8.77%. The price data also reflects the inflation dilemma, and corporate profits continue to be under pressure, making it difficult to reverse the low - growth situation of price growth by the end of the year [3][12][13]. - **Auction**: On October 22, a $13 billion 20 - year US Treasury bond auction was held. The winning bid rate was 4.506%, the bid - to - cover ratio was 2.73 times, basically the same as the previous value. The tail spread was - 1.150, lower than the previous value. Indirects were allocated 63.6%, Directs 26.3%, and Primary 10.0% [4][14]. - **Europe and Japan**: Japanese government bond yields rose slightly overall this week, with short - and medium - term yields generally rising and ultra - long - term yields (15 - year and 20 - year) slightly falling. German government bond yields had the largest single - week increase in six weeks [4][19]. 2. Comments on Other Major Asset Classes - **Equity**: Global major stock markets generally strengthened. South Korea's KOSPI led the rise with + 5.14%, followed by the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index with a 3.62% rebound, the Japanese Nikkei 225 with a 3.61% increase, the UK FTSE 100 with a 3.11% increase, the Chinese Shanghai Composite Index with a 2.88% increase, the US Nasdaq with a 2.31% increase, the German DAX with a 1.72% increase, the French CAC40 with a 0.63% increase, and India's Sensex with a 0.31% increase. Vietnam's VN30 fell 1.65%, and Russia's MOEX had a - 6.49% decline [5][20]. - **Commodities**: Energy led the rise, while precious metals fell from high levels. Brent crude oil rose 7.59%, coking coal 5.58%, coke 4.74%, Bitcoin 4.29%, US live hogs 2.84%, LME copper 2.65%, LME aluminum 2.28%, CBOT soybeans 2.18%, CBOT wheat 1.74%, CBOT corn 0.18%, soda ash 1.82%, Zhengzhou cotton 1.61%, and rebar 0.43%. London gold fell 2.85% and London silver fell 11.27% [5][21]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar was stable, and non - US currencies were generally under pressure. The Indian rupee rose 0.22%, the Vietnamese dong appreciated 0.04%, the US dollar against the Chinese yuan rose slightly by 0.02%, the Hong Kong dollar fell 0.04%, the euro fell 0.84%, the Swiss franc fell 0.85%, the British pound fell 1.00%, the South Korean won fell 1.03%, the Russian ruble fell 1.52%, and the Japanese yen fell 1.63% [5][22][23]. 3. Market Tracking - The report provides multiple charts to show the changes in various indicators this week, including the yield changes of major economies' government bonds, the rise and fall of major global stock indices, the rise and fall of major commodities, the rise and fall of major global foreign exchange rates, and the latest economic data panels of the US, Japan, and the eurozone [28][32][35].

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Department auctioned four-week and eight-week Treasury bills with a winning yield of 4.030% and 3.955% respectively [1] - The bid-to-cover ratio for the four-week Treasury bills was 2.92, while for the eight-week Treasury bills it was 2.88 [1]

Core Points - The U.S. Treasury conducted auctions for four-week and eight-week Treasury bills, with the four-week bills yielding a bid rate of 4.030% and the eight-week bills yielding a bid rate of 3.955% [1] - The bid-to-cover ratio for the four-week bills was 2.92, indicating strong demand, while the eight-week bills had a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.88, also reflecting solid interest from investors [1] Summary by Category Auction Results - Four-week Treasury bills had a winning yield of 4.030% [1] - Eight-week Treasury bills had a winning yield of 3.955% [1] Demand Indicators - The bid-to-cover ratio for the four-week bills was 2.92, suggesting robust demand [1] - The bid-to-cover ratio for the eight-week bills was 2.88, indicating strong investor interest [1]

Core Insights - The U.S. Treasury conducted auctions for both four-week and eight-week Treasury bills, with the four-week bill yielding a rate of 4.080% and the eight-week bill yielding a rate of 4% [1] Summary by Category Auction Results - The four-week Treasury bill auction had a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.61, indicating strong demand [1] - The eight-week Treasury bill auction had a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.65, also reflecting robust interest from investors [1]

Core Insights - The total amount allocated for the bond series RIKB 42 0217 is 1,643 million [1] - The settlement date for this bond is set for September 24, 2025 [1] Bid Summary - A total of 17 bids were received, amounting to 3,243 million [1] - Out of these, 9 bids were successful, with all being allocated in full [1] - The bid to cover ratio stands at 1.97, indicating strong demand [1] Pricing and Yield - The awarded bids were at a price of 78.600 with a yield of 6.680 [1] - The weighted average of successful bids is 78.769 with a yield of 6.660 [1] - The best bid was at a price of 79.471 with a yield of 6.580, while the worst bid was at 78.400 with a yield of 6.710 [1] Allocation Details - The lowest price and highest yield allocated were 78.600 and 6.680 respectively [1] - The highest price and lowest yield allocated were 79.471 and 6.580 respectively [1] - Approximately 100% of the bids received were allocated partially [1]

Group 1 - The auction of 20-year U.S. Treasury bonds showed robust demand, with the direct bidder allocation ratio reaching a historical high and the allocation to primary dealers at one of the lowest levels in history [1] - The awarded yield for the 20-year bonds was 4.613%, significantly lower than the previous month, marking the lowest since October 2024 [1] - The bid-to-cover ratio was 2.74, higher than in July and the second highest since March, indicating strong actual demand [1] Group 2 - The average fixed-rate mortgage loan rate for 30-year terms dropped significantly by 12 basis points to 6.13%, the lowest since the end of 2022 [1] - Historical trends suggest that in a recessionary environment, rate cuts may lower long-term yields, while in a non-recessionary environment, the impact on long-term rates may be minimal [1] - There is a possibility that the market may react by "buying the rumor, selling the fact," leading to a slight sell-off of 10-year Treasuries after the Federal Reserve announces a rate cut [1]

Group 1 - The Government Debt Management will auction Treasury bonds with specific ISIN numbers and maturity dates on September 5, 2025 [1] - The auction will allow for a 10% additional purchase right as per Article 6 of the General Terms of Auction for Treasury bonds [1] - The Treasury bonds will be delivered in electronic form on the settlement date of September 10, 2025 [1] Group 2 - Payment for the bonds can be made either in cash or using the buyback issue at the specified buyback price [2] - Cash payments must be received by the Central Bank before 14:00 on the settlement date, while notifications for buyback payments must be received by 14:00 on the auction date [2] - The value of the buyback bond is determined by the buyback price plus accrued interest and indexation [2] Group 3 - No fee is associated with the purchase of the RIKS 26 0216 bond [3] - Further details can be obtained from the Government Debt Management contact [3]

Group 1 - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) maintains a neutral stance despite market speculation about potential interest rate hikes as early as October, leading to a rise in long-term bond yields and a weak demand for short-term bond auctions [2][3] - BOJ committee member Junko Nakagawa emphasized that the central bank will continue to raise policy rates if economic and inflation conditions allow, while also highlighting trade-related uncertainties [3] - The yield on Japan's 10-year government bonds reached a 17-year high earlier this week, driven by stable economic activity and persistent inflation, further fueling speculation about interest rate hikes [3] Group 2 - The auction demand for Japan's two-year government bonds fell to its weakest level in 16 years, with an average bid-to-cover ratio of 2.84, the lowest since 2009 [4] - The weak auction results are attributed to speculation about BOJ interest rate hikes and expectations of increased short-term bond issuance, making it difficult for investors to establish positions at the short end of the curve [4] - Overall, the poor auction results across various maturities indicate weakening market demand amid improved economic prospects and hawkish signals from the BOJ [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent U.S. Treasury bond auctions have shown weak results, particularly the 30-year bond auction, indicating a decline in demand for government debt [1] Group 1: Auction Results - The yield on the 30-year bond auction exceeded the pre-issue yield, marking the largest tail risk spread in a year, which suggests weak demand [1] - The bid-to-cover ratio for the 30-year bond auction was 2.27, the lowest since November 2023, and significantly below the average of the last six auctions [1] - The indirect bid ratio, which reflects foreign demand, fell to 59.5%, the lowest since May and the second lowest since 2021 [1] Group 2: Domestic Demand - The direct bid ratio, indicating domestic demand, dropped to 23.03%, lower than both the previous month and the average of the last six auctions [1] - The allocation to primary dealers reached the highest level since August 2024, highlighting insufficient actual demand [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent 30-year U.S. Treasury bond auction revealed weak market demand, raising concerns about the overall interest in U.S. debt securities [1][2] Group 1: Auction Results - The U.S. Treasury issued $25 billion in long-term bonds with a winning yield of 4.813%, exceeding pre-auction market yields by over 2 basis points, indicating investors' demand for higher returns [1] - Following the auction results, the 30-year Treasury yield rose to 4.829%, reflecting investor disappointment and a decline in bond prices [1] - This marks the third consecutive weak auction this week, following lackluster demand in the 3-year and 10-year bond auctions [1] Group 2: Investor Participation - Primary dealers, seen as market "backstop buyers," subscribed to 17.5% of the issuance, the highest since August 2024, indicating they are taking on more of the subscription when other investors show less interest [2] - Indirect bidders, including foreign central banks, accounted for 59.5% of the auction, below the average of over 61% from the past three auctions [2] - Direct bidders, such as domestic pension funds, subscribed to 23%, slightly below recent averages [2] Group 3: Market Sentiment - The limited interest in the 30-year Treasury bonds is not surprising, as previous auctions in February, March, and May also faced weak demand due to the higher interest rate risk associated with long maturities [2] - The overall trend of weak demand across different maturities suggests that investors are dissatisfied with current Treasury yields, believing that fair value should be higher [2] - This situation poses challenges for the new administration, which is more focused on controlling federal borrowing costs, as weak demand may force the Treasury to issue bonds at higher rates, increasing government debt interest burdens [2]