美联储大消息！ 因假日原因，隔夜美股提前收盘，截至收盘，道指涨288.75点，涨幅0.60%，报48731.16点，纳指涨0.22%，报23613.31点，标普500指数涨0.32%， 报6932.05点。道指与标普500指数双双刷新收盘历史纪录。道琼斯市场数据显示，这是自2013年以来，标普500指数首次在平安夜创下收盘新高。 消息面上，多项调查显示，就业稳定性正成为明年美国职场人的一大心事。 美国劳工部数据显示，11月美国失业率攀升至 4.6%，创下四年以来的新高，新增就业岗位高度集中在医疗健康领域。咨商会23日公布的调查显 示，12月消费者对劳动力市场的评价 "更为消极"。该调研还发现，如今认为家庭财务状况 "糟糕"的受访者占比，已超过认为 "良好"的群体。 与此同时，密歇根大学消费者信心调查12月报告显示，63%的受访者预计明年失业率将持续走高。报告指出，受钱包压力相关问题的持续主导， 消费者对经济的整体看法趋于悲观影响，今年最后一份消费者信心指数较2024年同期下滑近30%。 据CME"美联储观察"：美联储2026年1月降息25个基点的概率为15.5%，维持利率不变的概率为84.5%。美联储到明年3 ...

Group 1 - The "Santa Claus Rally" phenomenon refers to the tendency for stock markets to rise during the last five trading days of the year and the first two trading days of the new year, with an average return of 1.3% and an 80% probability of positive returns since 1950 [3][4]. - Historical data shows that when the "Santa Claus Rally" occurs, it often indicates a stable market sentiment for the following year's first quarter, while its absence suggests a higher risk of market pullbacks [5][7]. - The 2025 "Santa Claus Rally" is expected to be influenced by a favorable liquidity environment following a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with the S&P 500 potentially breaking the historical high of 6920 points by the end of 2025 [7][8]. Group 2 - In 2026, the U.S. economy may enter a delicate balance as the Federal Reserve seeks to balance "preventive rate cuts" with "anti-inflation" measures, with inflation having decreased to 2.7% as of November 2025 [8][9]. - The market anticipates two rate cuts in 2026, but there is a possibility that the Federal Reserve may adopt a more accommodative policy, potentially cutting rates three times throughout the year [9]. - The stock market in 2026 is expected to be driven by "profit growth and moderate valuation expansion," with a focus on sectors like artificial intelligence infrastructure and space economy, while emphasizing the importance of stock selection over market trends [10][11]. Group 3 - The artificial intelligence sector is expected to face challenges due to high capital expenditures and debt levels, with companies needing to demonstrate tangible performance rather than speculative concepts [10][11]. - Companies with deteriorating financial conditions and high valuations in the AI application space may face sell-offs, particularly if the financing environment does not meet expectations [11][12]. - The market in 2026 is anticipated to be selective, favoring companies that can generate immediate cash flow, while avoiding high-valuation stocks that may be vulnerable to valuation corrections [12].

Market Performance - Major US stock indices continued to rise, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average reaching new historical closing highs, driven by expectations of a "Santa Claus rally" [2] - As of December 24, the Dow Jones increased by 288.75 points (0.60%) to 48,731.16, while the S&P 500 rose by 0.32% to 6,932.05, marking its second consecutive day of record closing [2] - The Nasdaq Composite gained 0.22% to 23,613.31, and the Russell 2000 index increased by 0.3%, indicating sustained risk appetite [2] Economic Indicators - The US economy showed strong support from recent data, with Q3 GDP growing at an annualized rate of 4.3%, the fastest in two years, significantly exceeding market expectations [3] - Consumer spending, export rebounds, and continued investment in equipment and AI were key drivers of this growth, alongside government spending, particularly in defense [3] - However, economists noted a structural divergence in growth, with high-income households driving consumer spending while lower-income families face challenges due to rising living costs [3][4] Consumer Behavior - Consumer spending growth reached 3.5% in Q3, the fastest in nearly a year, covering various sectors such as leisure, automotive, and healthcare [4] - Recent signs indicate a marginal slowdown in consumer momentum, with retail sales stagnating in October and a decline in automotive purchases for two consecutive months [4] Inflation and Monetary Policy - Inflation pressures have resurfaced, with key indicators showing a 3.4% increase in overall price levels in Q3, the fastest since early 2023 [4] - The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, a focus for the Federal Reserve, also saw its year-on-year growth rate rise to 2.8% [4] - Market expectations for significant rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have diminished in light of resilient economic data and persistent inflation [4] Market Outlook - The market is entering a critical phase at the year's end, with historical trends suggesting a "Santa Claus rally" in the final trading days [4] - However, analysts believe that with indices at high levels and low liquidity, short-term upside potential may be limited, predicting a moderate upward trend rather than a significant surge [4] - The focus is shifting from the speed of growth to the sustainability and balance of growth as the market reassesses economic quality, inflation paths, and policy directions [4]

Market Performance - On December 24, the U.S. stock market saw a slight increase before the Christmas holiday, with all three major indices achieving gains for the fifth consecutive trading day, and the S&P 500 index closing at a record high [1] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.60% to close at 48,731.16 points, the S&P 500 increased by 0.32% to 6,932.05 points, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.22% to finish at 23,613.31 points [1] Economic Indicators - The U.S. Department of Labor reported that for the week ending December 20, the number of initial jobless claims was 214,000, a decrease of 10,000 from the previous value and below market expectations [1] - The U.S. Department of Commerce revised the third-quarter GDP growth rate to an annualized increase of 4.3%, surpassing market expectations [1] Seasonal Trends - Market observers refer to the seasonal upward trend in the last few trading days of the year and the first few trading days of the new year as the "Santa Claus Rally" [1] Company-Specific News - Nike's stock price saw a significant increase, influenced by Apple CEO Tim Cook's recent purchase of approximately 50,000 shares of Nike [1] - Reports indicated that Nvidia has paused testing of high-end chips using Intel's 18A process technology, which put pressure on Intel's stock price [1]

当地时间12月24日，美国股市在圣诞前夜的交易中继续走高，标普500指数盘中触及历史最高水平，延 续了近期的上涨势头。 当天，美股市场因圣诞节假期而提前收盘。交易时段内，作为美国股市基准的标普500指数成功刷新了 盘中历史最高纪录。根据纽约证券交易所的安排，交易于美国东部时间下午1点提前结束，并于次日圣 诞节全天休市。 此次上涨延续了美股近期的连续升势。此前一天，美股三大股指均已实现连续第四个交易日上涨。根据 美国商务部公布的报告，因政府停摆而延迟发布的第三季度国内生产总值（GDP）增速为4.3%，超过 市场预期。 在当天的经济数据方面，美国劳工部公布的数据显示，截至12月20日当周，美国首次申请失业救济人数 为21.4万人，较前一周减少1万人。这一数据低于彭博调查的经济学家此前22.4万人的预期中值。劳工部 指出，近期新申请失业救济的人数在节假日前后出现波动属于常态。 随着年末临近，市场关注的"圣诞老人行情"拉开帷幕。这一行情通常指一年最后五个交易日和新年头两 个交易日期间股市的上涨表现。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。 本文源自：市场资讯 作者： ...

*三大股指齐升，道指涨近300点； *中长期美债收益率回落，2年期美债逼近3.50%； *纳斯达克中国金龙指数跌近0.1%。 因假日原因，周三美股提前收盘。美国初请失业金数据好于预期，必需消费品与房地产板块联袂走强， 推动美股三大股指集体收涨录得五连阳。 截至收盘，道指涨288.75点，涨幅0.60%，报48731.16点，纳指涨0.22%，报23613.31点，标普500指数涨 0.32%，报6932.05点。道指与标普500指数双双刷新收盘历史纪录。道琼斯市场数据显示，这是自2013 年以来，标普500指数首次在平安夜创下收盘新高。 【热门股表现】 个股方面，英特尔跌0.5%。据报道，英伟达将不会继续推进采用英特尔18A制程工艺的芯片生产测试。 报道还称，英伟达今年9月向英特尔注资50亿美元时，并未与其达成相关的量产承诺。英伟达股价下跌 0.3%。 明星科技股普涨，甲骨文涨1.1%，苹果涨0.5%，Meta涨0.4%，微软涨0.2%，亚马逊涨0.1%，谷歌和特 斯拉平盘。 耐克涨4.6%，周二提交的监管文件显示，苹果公司首席执行官蒂姆・库克购入了价值300万美元的股 票。 纳斯达克中国金龙指数微跌0.1% ...

本文字数：1432，阅读时长大约2分钟 2025.12.25 作者 |第一财经 樊志菁 因假日原因，周三美股提前收盘。美国初请失业金数据好于预期，必需消费品与房地产板块联袂走强， 推动美股三大股指集体收涨录得五连阳。 截至收盘，道指涨288.75点，涨幅0.60%，报48731.16点，纳指涨0.22%，报23613.31点，标普500指数涨 0.32%，报6932.05点。道指与标普500指数双双刷新收盘历史纪录。道琼斯市场数据显示，这是自2013 年以来，标普500指数首次在平安夜创下收盘新高。 美国抵押贷款银行家协会MBA表示，截至12月19日当周，抵押贷款申请数量下降5%，其中，再融资贷 款申请数量下降6%。"尽管抵押贷款利率小幅下行，但上周抵押贷款申请总量仍出现下滑。我们预计， 就业市场走软、通胀居高难下、房屋库存高企以及抵押贷款利率企稳的趋势，将延续至新的一年。"协 会首席经济学家弗拉托尼（Mike Fratantoni）表示。 美国商务部周二公布的三季度国内生产总值（GDP）增长4.3%，远超3.2%的市场普遍预期。这份因政 府停摆而延迟发布的报告，起初令交易员下调了对明年初降息的预期。不过，芝 ...

2025.12. 25 本文字数：1432，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 | 第一财经 樊志菁 因假日原因，周三美股提前收盘。美国初请失业金数据好于预期，必需消费品与房地产板块联袂走 强，推动美股三大股指集体收涨录得五连阳。 截至收盘，道指涨288.75点，涨幅0.60%，报48731.16点，纳指涨0.22%，报23613.31点，标 普500指数涨0.32%，报6932.05点。道指与标普500指数双双刷新收盘历史纪录。道琼斯市场数据 显示，这是自2013年以来，标普500指数首次在平安夜创下收盘新高。 个股方面，英特尔跌0.5%。据报道，英伟达将不会继续推进采用英特尔18A制程工艺的芯片生产测 试。报道还称，英伟达今年9月向英特尔注资50亿美元时，并未与其达成相关的量产承诺。英伟达股 价下跌0.3%。 明星科技股普涨，甲骨文涨1.1%，苹果涨0.5%，Meta涨0.4%，微软涨0.2%，亚马逊涨0.1%， 谷歌和特斯拉平盘。 耐克涨4.6%，周二提交的监管文件显示，苹果公司首席执行官蒂姆・库克购入了价值300万美元的 股票。 纳斯达克中国金龙指数微跌0.1%，拼多多涨1.2%，京东涨0.3%，百度跌0.4% ...

12月25日，周三（12月24日），美股低开高走，三大指数连涨五日，其中道指和标普收于新高。由于逢圣诞夜，美股周三提前3小时收盘，周四圣诞节全天 休市。 投资者们还期待着"圣诞老人行情"，即股市在年底最后五个交易日到新年头两个交易日之间的上涨行情。今年，这一时间段是从12月24日到1月5日。 Globalt Investments高级投资组合经理Thomas Martin称，由于交易量下降，年底前市场将出现一段平静期，"上涨1%或2%有可能吗？当然，这算是正常水 平。" 热门股表现 大型科技股多数收涨，（按市值排列）英伟达跌0.32%，苹果涨0.53%，谷歌C微跌0.01点，微软涨0.24%，亚马逊涨0.1%，Meta涨0.39%，博通涨0.26%，特 斯拉跌0.03%。 截至收盘，道琼斯指数涨0.6%，报48731.16点，刷新了12月11日录得的收盘纪录；标普500指数涨0.32%，报6932.05点，连续第二日收新高，另还创下了 6937.32点的盘中纪录；纳斯达克综合指数涨0.22%，报23613.31点。 | 名称 | 最新价 | 涨跌额 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

北京时间12月25日凌晨，美股周三午盘走高，标普500指数创盘中历史最高水平。美国上周初请失业救 济人数降至21.4万。今日美股将提前收盘。 LPL Financial首席技术策略师亚当·特恩奎斯特（Adam Turnquist）表示，标普500指数在"圣诞老人行 情"期间平均回报率为1.3%，其中78%的时间录得正收益。他还在给客户的报告中写道，市场典型的七 日平均回报率仅为0.3%，正收益概率为58%。 特恩奎斯特表示："年末前的动量表明'圣诞老人行情'有望实现正面走势——这历来是1月及全年看涨的 信号。尽管在指数接近历史高点之际，整体市场广度仍略显狭窄，但趋势正朝着正确方向发展，并得到 资金轮动至周期性板块的支撑。若标普500指数收盘站上12月高点，或将为突破7，000点大关的下一轮 上涨铺平道路。" 道指涨292.29点，涨幅为0.60%，报48734.70点；纳指涨51.61点，涨幅为0.22%，报23613.45点；标普 500指数涨24.67点，涨幅为0.36%，报6934.46点。 周三午盘，标普500指数最高上涨至6934.78点，创盘中历史新高。 纽约证券交易所将于美国东部时间周三（圣诞前 ...