Core Viewpoint - Weak wage data in Japan complicates the Bank of Japan's ability to raise interest rates, with inflation-adjusted wages declining by 2.9% year-on-year in May compared to a 2.0% drop in April [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - Japan's real wages have shown a significant decline, with a 2.9% year-on-year decrease in May, indicating challenges in wage growth [1] - The economic outlook for Japan is described as "very challenging" due to stalled trade negotiations with the United States and potential tariff increases on Japanese goods [1] Group 2: Central Bank Policy - The Bank of Japan faces increasing difficulties in raising interest rates as wage growth remains sluggish, complicating its monetary policy decisions [1] - Despite the challenges, there is still an expectation that the Bank of Japan will continue to raise interest rates, although further declines in wages could hinder this decision [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan's board member Takeda Soichi stated that it is impossible to determine how long the Bank of Japan can wait before raising interest rates based on preset views [1] Group 1 - The Bank of Japan is currently in a position where it cannot make definitive judgments regarding the timing of potential interest rate hikes [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan is currently in a phase of pausing interest rate hikes [1] Group 1 - The Bank of Japan's policy committee member Takeda Soichi indicated that the central bank is not planning to raise interest rates at this time [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Brazilian central bank unexpectedly raised the interest rate by 25 basis points to 15%, while the market had anticipated it to remain unchanged at 14.75% [1] Group 1 - The decision to increase the interest rate indicates a shift in monetary policy aimed at controlling inflation [1] - The unexpected rate hike may impact various sectors, particularly those sensitive to interest rate changes such as real estate and consumer finance [1] - Analysts will need to reassess their forecasts for economic growth and inflation in light of this new monetary policy stance [1]

Group 1 - The OECD predicts that the Bank of Japan will further increase interest rates [1] - The Bank of Canada is likely to continue lowering interest rates [1]

Group 1 - The Bank of Japan's policy committee member Asahi Noguchi believes there is no need for the central bank to intervene in the bond market despite recent significant increases in ultra-long-term bond yields, describing the volatility as "rapid but not unusual" [1] - Noguchi emphasizes the necessity to pause interest rate hikes until the impact of U.S. tariffs on the economy becomes clearer, indicating that current economic uncertainty makes rate adjustments meaningless [1][3] - The recent rise in ultra-long-term bond yields has reached historical highs, influenced by political calls for large-scale fiscal spending, while short-term bond yields remain stable due to reduced expectations for rate hikes [1][2] Group 2 - The Bank of Japan exited its large-scale stimulus program last year, which included maintaining bond yields around zero, and raised the short-term policy rate to 0.5% in January, citing progress in achieving the 2% inflation target [2] - In the upcoming policy meeting, the Bank of Japan will conduct a mid-term evaluation of its bond reduction plan and consider strategies for after April 2026, with Noguchi suggesting no major adjustments are necessary at this time [3] - Concerns over global economic slowdown due to U.S. tariffs have led the Bank of Japan to significantly lower its growth forecasts, raising questions about the sustainability of wage increases supporting consumption and the overall economy [3]

Core Viewpoint - A Reuters survey indicates that two-thirds of Japanese companies are urging the Bank of Japan to pause interest rate hikes due to the impact of Trump's tariff measures [1] Group 1 - The survey reflects concerns among Japanese businesses regarding the economic implications of U.S. tariffs [1] - Companies are worried that rising interest rates could further strain their operations amid the ongoing trade tensions [1] - The sentiment among Japanese firms highlights the potential for a slowdown in economic growth if the Bank of Japan proceeds with rate increases [1]

日本央行副行长内田真一：若经济和物价如我们预测般改善，将继续加息。 订阅日本央行动态 +订阅 ...

Group 1 - The Japanese yen has maintained strength against the weak US dollar for the third consecutive day, with the latest USD/JPY exchange rate at 146.2680, down 0.25% [1] - Market expectations indicate that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will raise interest rates again, supported by weakened risk sentiment and new dollar sell-offs, increasing downward pressure on the USD/JPY currency pair [1] - The BoJ's recent monetary policy meeting summary expressed concerns about US trade policies potentially harming Japan's economic growth, with expectations of a slowdown to near potential growth levels before a gradual recovery [1] Group 2 - Japan's Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 0.2% month-on-month in April, with a year-on-year increase of 4%, which is lower than the previous month's 4.2%, but this had limited impact on the yen [2] - The US dollar is struggling to attract buyers due to lower-than-expected US consumer inflation data, reinforcing market expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut rates at least twice in 2025 [2] - The overall Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the US decreased slightly from 2.4% to 2.3% year-on-year in April, while the core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, rose by 2.8%, in line with expectations [2] Group 3 - The cloud chart indicators for the USD/JPY exchange rate limit upward movement, with declines stalling near the May 1 high [3] - Resistance levels are identified at 147.60 (cloud bottom), 147.77 (Bollinger band upper limit), and 148.65 to 148.70 (December 3 and March 31 lows) [3] - Support levels are noted at 145.73 (May 1 high), 145.50 (conversion line), and 145 (psychological level) [3]

Group 1 - The central bank of Brazil raised the interest rate by 50 basis points to 14.75%, aligning with market expectations [1]