宏观经济不确定性

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宏川智慧(002930):石化仓储需求偏弱,拖累盈利
HTSC· 2025-04-29 02:18
证券研究报告 宏川智慧 (002930 CH) 石化仓储需求偏弱,拖累盈利 | 华泰研究 | | | 年报点评 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 4 月 | 29 日│中国内地 | 仓储物流 | 宏川智慧发布 2024 年及 1Q25 业绩:1)24 年公司营收 14.5 亿元,同比 -6.3%;归母净利 1.6 亿元,同比-46.6%,低于我们的预期(2.6 亿元)。2) 1Q25 公司营收 3.2 亿元,同比-15.0%;归母净利 2,095 万元,同比-65.1%。 24 年及 1Q25 盈利同比大幅下降主因下游石化行业需求偏弱,导致公司储 罐及化工仓库出租率和价格下降,但折旧成本相对刚性,拖累盈利。展望 25 年,受关税影响,全球宏观经济存较大不确定性。我们预计整体石化仓 储需求或仍偏弱,但考虑公司新增项目投产,我们预计公司 25 年盈利在 24 年低基数上同比有望小幅改善。维持"增持"。 24 年石化行业需求偏弱,仓储物流行业盈利承压 2024 年公司新增项目并购使业务规模提升,但受下游石化需求偏弱影响, 经营业绩承压。24 年公司毛利润 7.2 亿元,同 ...
【互联网传媒】谷歌25Q1广告收入超预期,财报季能否缓解美股市场恐慌?——美股互联网传媒行业跟踪报告(二十五)(付天姿)
光大证券研究· 2025-04-27 13:12
点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明: 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写,仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户,用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户,请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限,若给您造成不便,敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 事件: 美国东部时间 4 月 24 日盘后,谷歌发布 25Q1 业绩,营收实现超预期加速增长,截至北京时间 4 月 25 日 8:00 ,谷歌盘后股价上涨 5.1% 。 风险提示: 宏观经济风险、关税政策不确定性风险、行业竞争加剧风险、 AI 相关投资带来成本压力。 Other Bets 驱动谷歌 25Q1 营业收入加速增长,净利率大幅超预期 25Q1 谷歌实现营业收入 902.3 亿美元,高于 Refinitiv 一致预期(下文简称一致预期) 1.25% ,同比增长 12.0% ( 24Q4 同比增长 11.8% )。 Other Bets 收入超预期加速增长。 25Q1 Other Bets 收入 110.9 亿美 元,高 ...
三星晶圆厂,压力大增
半导体行业观察· 2025-04-27 01:26
如果您希望可以时常见面,欢迎标星收藏哦~ 来源:内容 编译自 chosun ,谢谢。 台积电美国业务的困境在全球半导体行业引发波澜,引发了人们对在亚洲以外建设先进晶圆厂的可 行性的怀疑,而三星电子在德克萨斯州的工厂即将完工之际也陷入了困境。 尽管台积电已在亚利桑那州工厂投入运营,但由于劳动力成本上涨和持续的基础设施投资,该工厂 仍深陷亏损。过去四年,该公司报告称,该工厂累计亏损394.5亿新台币(约合12.2亿美元)。此 外,在与美国总统唐纳德·特朗普会晤后,台积电首席执行官魏哲家在今年3月宣布了一项新的 1000亿美元投资计划,突显出地缘政治压力正迫使企业加倍投资美国业务。 损失也蔓延到了台积电的其他国际工厂。在日本,其子公司JASM于2024年底在熊本开始生产12纳 米及更老的芯片后,亏损创纪录地达到43.8亿新台币。在德国,其新建的德累斯顿工厂亏损了5亿 新台币。 如今,三星也面临类似的困境。由于泰勒工厂尚未获得主要客户,分析师警告称,一旦工厂投产, 三星可能立即面临运营亏损——而美国的劳动力和制造成本远高于韩国,这无疑加剧了三星的困 境。韩国国内的晶圆代工业务目前已处于亏损状态。 这些财务风险或许是三 ...
Masco Analysts Lower Their Forecasts Following Weaker-Than-Expected Earnings
Benzinga· 2025-04-24 18:27
Masco Corporation MAS reported weaker-than-expected earnings for its first quarter on Wednesday.The company posted quarterly earnings of 87 cents per share which missed the analyst consensus estimate of 92 cents per share. The company reported quarterly sales of $1.80 billion which missed the analyst consensus estimate of $1.84 billion.The company did not provide FY25 guidance due to tariff and macroeconomic uncertainty.“During the first quarter, we delivered solid adjusted operating profit margin of 16.0 p ...
FirstService(FSV) - 2025 Q1 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-04-24 17:02
FirstService Corporation (NASDAQ:FSV) Q1 2025 Results Conference Call April 24, 2025 11:00 AM ET Company Participants Scott Patterson - Chief Executive Officer Jeremy Rakusin - Chief Financial Officer Conference Call Participants Stephen MacLeod - BMO Capital Markets Scott Fletcher - CIBC Daryl Young - Stifel Stephen Sheldon - William Blair Frederic Bastien - Raymond James Operator Welcome to the First Quarter Investor Conference Call. Today's call is being recorded. All participants are in a listen-only mo ...
PROG (PRG) - 2025 Q1 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-04-23 13:32
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q1 2025, consolidated revenue reached $684.1 million, a 6.6% increase year-over-year from $641.9 million [26] - Adjusted EBITDA was $70.3 million, slightly down from $72.6 million in the previous year [26] - Non-GAAP EPS was $0.90, exceeding the high end of the outlook [26] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Progressive Leasing's GMV was $402 million, down 4% year-over-year, primarily due to the bankruptcy of a large retail partner [22][23] - Excluding the impact of the Big Lots bankruptcy, GMV growth was low to mid-single digits [22][23] - Ford Technologies continued to grow revenues at a triple-digit rate, achieving its first quarter of positive adjusted EBITDA [11][81] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The lease portfolio balance as of December 31, 2024, was up 6.1% year-over-year, compared to a 5.2% decline at the same point in 2023 [10] - Write-offs for Q1 came in at 7.4%, slightly better than expected, with a targeted annual write-off range of 6% to 8% [10][24] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on executing its ecosystem strategy, which includes both leasing and BNPL products to meet consumer needs [11][19] - Strategic investments will continue in marketing and technology to optimize decision-making and manage risk [12][19] - The company aims to maintain a disciplined approach to spending while prioritizing areas with the greatest impact [14][19] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - The macro environment has deteriorated, with inflation and tariff concerns impacting consumer confidence and spending [12][28] - Despite challenges, the company remains confident in its ability to grow share and deliver sustainable profitable growth [13][30] - The revised revenue outlook for 2025 reflects the GMV headwinds, with expectations for revenue between $2.425 billion and $2.5 billion [29] Other Important Information - The company returned capital to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases, with a quarterly cash dividend of $0.13 per share [26] - The company has $335.2 million remaining under its $500 million share repurchase program [26] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are the dynamics of the trade-down environment? - Management noted that trade-down behavior still exists but is more muted compared to the latter half of 2024, with no significant tightening observed [36] Question: How has retail softness progressed? - The quarter started encouragingly, but a downshift in consumer sentiment was noted, with no significant rebound observed [40] Question: What is the impact of the Big Lots bankruptcy on GMV? - The $30 million GMV headwind from the lost customer is expected to be consistent across the quarters, with some seasonal variations [41][42] Question: How are inflation and tariffs affecting retail partners? - Management indicated that modest price increases could be beneficial, but significant price shocks and demand destruction are concerning [46] Question: What is the outlook for GMV in Q2 and the rest of the year? - No specific GMV guidance was provided due to uncertainty, but management remains focused on maintaining a healthy portfolio and managing expenses [95][96]
指数继续分化,耐心等待机会
格隆汇APP· 2025-04-22 09:08
今日, A 股市场延续近期震荡格局,三大指数涨跌不一,两市成交额 维持 万亿元 以上 。 一、指数表现: 各大指数继续分化 在黄金与贵金属板块,由于国际金价突破 3500 美元 / 盎司创历史新高, 四川黄金、西部黄 金 等相关个股上涨,反映出市场避险需求显著。 然而,市场并非普涨格局。算力与 AI 应用板块表现弱势,英维克 因业绩 跌停, AI 软件类板 块回调,反映资金从高估值科技股撤离。 消费电子板块受美股科技股拖累,立讯精密跌 3% ,板块整体承压。这些板块的下跌,一方面 是由于前期涨幅较大,存在回调需求;另一方面,也与市场对科技行业的盈利预期和宏观环境 变化有关。 三 、调整动因:获利回吐与内外压力并存 今日市场下跌的原因主要有以下几点: 一是科技成长 板块前期 积累了较大涨幅, 获利盘回吐压力较大,如算力与 AI 应用等板块, 在缺乏新的重大利好刺激下,资金选择落袋为安。 二是宏观经济数据及政策预期的不确定性, 尽管部分政策对部分板块有明显刺激,但整体市场 对于经济复苏的节奏和力度仍存在担忧,这使得投资者在配置上更为谨慎。 今日, A 股市场 继续 呈现出指数分化。截至收盘,沪指低开高走,最终收涨 ...