铅：跨市套利跟踪 2025/11/26 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 16950 1950 8.72 三月 17045 1986 11.28 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.70 34.58 有色套利早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/11/26 铜：跨市套利跟踪 2025/11/26 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 86620 10867 7.93 三月 86600 10857 7.99 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.04 -787.48 现货出口 269.01 锌：跨市套利跟踪 2025/11/26 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 22400 3130 7.16 三月 22380 3009 5.67 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.47 -4106.26 铝：跨市套利跟踪 2025/11/26 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 21440 2789 7.69 三月 21505 2820 7.63 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.32 -1760.57 镍：跨市套利跟踪 2025/11/26 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 119500 14494 8.24 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.14 -1774 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The urea market is in a loose pattern, with the center of futures and spot prices moving down, and the delivery volume and warehouse receipt volume hitting new highs, indicating a large selling pressure in the market [2][6]. - The UR2511&2601 spread mainly follows the reverse arbitrage logic, and the UR2601&2605 spread is likely to fluctuate strongly under the influence of export, reserve demand expectations, and high - load production [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Delivery Information Summary - Since its listing, the urea 11 - contract has undergone 6 deliveries. In the mainstream delivery areas of Henan and Hebei, the 11 - contract has mostly had a discounted futures price. The current UR2511 contract's delivery settlement price is 1619 yuan/ton, with a lower basis compared to historical contracts. The delivery volume of the UR2511 contract is about 3950 lots (about 79,000 tons), an increase compared to the 2510 contract and last year's 11 - contract, reflecting the loose market situation [2][6][12]. 3.2 Warehouse Receipt and Seat Distribution Overview - As of the end of November, the urea warehouse receipt volume is much higher than the historical level. As of the last trading day in November, the warehouse receipt volume is about 7183 lots, an increase of 1627 lots from the previous month and 3469 lots from the same period last year. High warehouse receipt volume weakens the long - position holding willingness and is related to factors such as loose supply - demand, expanded sales channels, and hedging needs [3][14]. - Warehouse receipts are mainly distributed in factories such as Yuntu Holdings, Sichuan Agricultural Means of Production, Zhongnong Holdings, and Anhui Zhongneng, with Yuntu Holdings having the highest proportion (about 28%). In terms of provinces, Henan has the largest warehouse receipt volume (about 21.3%), followed by Hubei and Hebei (17.3% - 17.4%). Warehouse receipts are mainly concentrated in factories, accounting for about 84% [3][15]. - Among the seller member seats, Yide Futures has the highest proportion (about 26.03%), followed by Guohai Liangshi and Zhongyuan Futures. Among the buyer member seats, Guotai Junan has the largest proportion (about 118.71%), followed by Hongyuan Futures and Wuchan Zhongda [3][19]. 3.3 Later Evaluation - The UR2511&2601 spread follows the reverse arbitrage logic due to insufficient industrial and agricultural demand and inventory accumulation. The UR2601&2605 spread is under pressure from high inventory, with limited further downward space and weak rebound momentum. It is likely to fluctuate strongly under the influence of export and reserve demand expectations and high - load production [4]. 3.4 Other Information - The seasonal performance of the basis of the urea 11 - contract in Hebei this year is weaker than that of last year, with low volatility. The estimated one - month fixed delivery cost of urea is about 30 - 50 yuan/ton, and there are limited risk - free arbitrage opportunities. In the long - term, the loose market pattern may increase enterprises' willingness to participate in delivery [22]. - The report also provides detailed information on urea delivery factories, warehouses, and the calculation of theoretical delivery costs [21][24][26].

有色套利早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/11/25 铜：跨市套利跟踪 2025/11/25 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 86240 10802 7.97 三月 86100 10777 8.00 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.07 -1067.61 现货出口 507.43 锌：跨市套利跟踪 2025/11/25 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 22370 3148 7.11 三月 22410 3008 5.71 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.49 -4351.18 铝：跨市套利跟踪 2025/11/25 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 21360 2773 7.70 三月 21410 2806 7.62 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.34 -1774.32 镍：跨市套利跟踪 2025/11/25 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 119900 14370 8.34 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.17 -1692.67 免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力求分析及建议内 容的客观、公正，研究方法专业审慎，分析结论合理 ...

铅：跨市套利跟踪 2025/11/24 易后果，凡据此入市者，我公司不承担任何责任。未经公司授权，不得随意转载、复制、传播本网站中所有研究分析报告、行情分析视频等全 部或部分材料、内容。对可能因互联网软硬件设备故障或失灵、或因不可抗力造成的全部或部分信息中断、延迟、遗漏、误导或造成资料传输 或储存上的错误、或遭第三人侵入系统篡改或伪造变造资料等，我们均不承担任何责任。 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 17025 1973 8.66 三月 17170 1995 11.22 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.72 -123.44 有色套利早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/11/24 铜：跨市套利跟踪 2025/11/24 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 85800 10677 8.07 三月 85680 10676 8.03 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.07 -632.80 现货出口 75.49 锌：跨市套利跟踪 2025/11/24 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 22420 3122 7.18 三月 22400 2987 5.75 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.49 -4097.68 铝：跨市套利跟踪 2 ...

Core View - The futures traders in Hangzhou are both rational practitioners and poetic dream - chasers, combining professionalism in trading with a pursuit of spiritual and emotional fulfillment [3] Summary of Different Scenes Morning - An experienced futures trader named Lao Hu gets up early to check the CBOT soybean trend while having prepared homemade dumplings. His wife jokes that he dreams about calculating basis spreads [2] - Lao Wang starts his live - stream at 7:15 AM, using a bowl of Pian'erchuan noodles to explain trading principles. He has a large number of fans on Douyin and is proud of making futures trading understandable to ordinary people [2] Mid - day - In cafes and shared offices, young people and private fund traders discuss futures - related topics like copper inventory and analyze trading records [3] - Lao Fu postpones dental treatment due to the market. During the waiting time at the hospital, he sees a news about forced liquidation and shares his view on the market on WeChat [3] Afternoon - A young female trader and her "90s" team focus on trading during the day, conduct in - depth reviews at night, and participate in closed - door meetings on weekends. They emphasize the need to work hard in Hangzhou's futures market [3] After trading hours - Some traders go to the gym to relieve stress, while others meet friends and enjoy food by the canal [3] Overall characteristics - Hangzhou's futures traders have a tenacious spirit of exploration. They are proficient in data analysis and policy research, and also pay attention to spiritual and emotional experiences. They believe in both the "valuation + driver" investment framework and the philosophy that "the heart is the market" [3]

Core Viewpoint - The interview highlights the trading strategies employed by a company in the polycrystalline silicon market, focusing on their successful use of various arbitrage and options strategies to enhance profitability. Group 1: Trading Strategies - The company utilizes three main trading strategies: spot-futures arbitrage, inter-month arbitrage, and options spread arbitrage [2]. - Initially, the company focused on spot-futures arbitrage, entering the market when reasonable price differences appeared, and increasing operations as price differences widened [2]. - In July, due to the "anti-involution" policy, the company shifted its strategy towards inter-month arbitrage, employing grid strategies to capture trading opportunities, resulting in a significant increase in trading volume [2]. Group 2: Options Strategies - The company employs a variety of options strategies, with a preference for vertical spreads and ratio spreads [2]. - The primary strategy involves a "bull spread," where the company buys near-month contracts and sells far-month contracts, allowing for profit locking even if price differences continue to widen [2]. - The company actively manages positions based on market conditions, using techniques such as pyramid averaging to gradually increase positions when price differences narrow [2]. Group 3: Unique Aspects of Options Trading - The company favors the options products offered by the exchange due to their sufficient strike price depth and wide coverage, which facilitates the implementation of the "wheel strategy" [3]. - The "wheel strategy" begins with selling put options, optimizing costs and generating income based on the demand in the spot market [3]. - The company emphasizes the role of options sellers, who focus on time value in addition to directional profits, and employs strategies to maximize returns or provide protection based on market volatility [4].

Core Insights - The company employs a diversified trading strategy focusing on three main types: spot-futures arbitrage, inter-month futures arbitrage, and options spread arbitrage [2][3][4] Group 1: Trading Strategies - The initial trading strategy involved spot-futures arbitrage, which allowed the company to earn stable profits from price differences when market conditions were favorable [2] - Following the implementation of anti-involution policies, the company shifted its focus towards inter-month arbitrage due to increased volatility in the price differences of polysilicon futures [2][3] - The company actively engages in rolling operations to capture market fluctuations, enhancing trading volume significantly [2][3] Group 2: Options Strategy - The company favors options trading due to the sufficient depth of strike prices available, which supports the implementation of a "wheel strategy" [4][5] - The wheel strategy involves selling put options to optimize costs and generate revenue, allowing the company to acquire futures at a lower effective price [4] - The company emphasizes the importance of time value in options trading, focusing on selling options to capture this value while also employing various strategies to maximize profits or provide protection for existing positions [5]

有色套利早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/11/21 铜：跨市套利跟踪 2025/11/21 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 86425 10740 8.02 三月 86100 10759 8.03 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.08 -503.28 现货出口 21.23 锌：跨市套利跟踪 2025/11/21 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 22420 3125 7.17 三月 22405 2990 5.77 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.51 -4165.28 铝：跨市套利跟踪 2025/11/21 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 21570 2781 7.75 三月 21555 2812 7.68 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.35 -1645.40 镍：跨市套利跟踪 2025/11/21 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 119950 14384 8.34 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.18 -1472.02 铅：跨市套利跟踪 2025/11/21 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 17100 1986 8.62 三月 17235 2015 11.12 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.73 -21 ...

Core Viewpoint - The steel trading industry is facing unprecedented challenges due to a significant divergence between futures and spot prices, leading to collective losses among traders as operational costs cannot be covered by the price differences [1][6][12]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The divergence between futures and spot prices for rebar has been expanding since August 2025, with the price difference exceeding 80 yuan/ton by mid-November, indicating a stark contrast between the optimistic spot market and the pessimistic futures market [4][5][10]. - Policies aimed at reducing overcapacity and promoting orderly competition have led to a significant reduction in steel inventories, with rebar stocks down 15.3% year-on-year as of mid-November 2025 [8][9]. - The current market conditions reflect a fundamental shift in the steel trading landscape, where traditional profit-making strategies based on price discrepancies are becoming obsolete [6][12]. Group 2: Trader Strategies - Many steel traders are adopting a "low inventory operation" model to mitigate risks associated with price fluctuations, with some reducing their rebar stocks from 20,000 tons to below 8,000 tons [5][15]. - Financial management and refined inventory control are becoming critical for survival, as traders face increased pressure from both inventory costs and financing challenges [13][20]. - Large trading firms are exploring more diverse strategies, such as engaging in arbitrage trading to capitalize on the price differences between futures and spot markets, with some firms reportedly securing profits of 80 to 100 yuan per ton through these strategies [16][17]. Group 3: Financial Pressures - The steel trading sector is experiencing heightened financial strain, with banks increasing loan rates and requiring reassessments of creditworthiness, leading to additional financial burdens for traders [21][22]. - The average profit margin for steel companies remains low, at just 1.97%, which exacerbates the credit risks perceived by banks [22][23]. - Traders are facing longer payment cycles from clients, with accounts receivable turnover days reaching a historical high of 83 days, significantly impacting cash flow [27][29]. Group 4: Adaptation and Future Outlook - In response to the evolving market conditions, traders are making difficult decisions, such as liquidating inventory at lower prices to improve cash flow and exploring new business models like consignment sales to reduce financial risk [30][31]. - The ability to adapt quickly to new market rules and maintain cash flow will determine which traders can survive and potentially thrive in the future [31][32].

Core Viewpoint - The steel trading industry is facing unprecedented challenges due to a significant divergence between futures and spot prices, leading to collective losses and a need for strategic transformation among traders [1][6][12]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Traditional trading strategies based on information and price discrepancies are no longer viable for established steel traders [1][6]. - Since August 2025, a persistent divergence between rebar futures and spot prices has emerged, with the price gap exceeding 80 yuan/ton by mid-November [5][10]. - The current market conditions are characterized by a strong spot market supported by supply-side constraints, while the futures market reflects pessimistic demand expectations [5][9]. Group 2: Inventory Management - Many steel traders are adopting a "low inventory operation" model to mitigate risks associated with price declines, reducing their stock levels significantly [5][15]. - A steel trading company has cut its rebar inventory from 20,000 tons to less than 8,000 tons due to concerns over future price depreciation [5][15]. - The trend towards low inventory is driven by heightened sensitivity to financial security and the rising costs associated with holding stock [15][17]. Group 3: Financial Pressures - Steel traders are experiencing increased financial strain due to longer sales cycles and higher implicit financing costs, as inventory turnover has slowed significantly [20][22]. - Banks are reassessing their lending to the steel industry, leading to higher interest rates and additional financial burdens for traders [21][22]. - The average profit margin for steel companies remains low, contributing to a challenging credit environment [22][23]. Group 4: Strategic Adaptations - Traders are exploring new operational strategies, such as utilizing futures for risk hedging and adjusting customer bases to focus on reliable clients [30][31]. - Some companies are engaging in arbitrage trading by taking advantage of the price discrepancies between futures and spot markets [16][31]. - The shift towards financialization and supply chain services is becoming essential for survival in the current market landscape [30][31].