Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market shows complex trends, with different commodities and financial products having their own characteristics. Some are influenced by supply - demand fundamentals, some by geopolitical factors, and others by macro - economic policies and seasonal factors. The market rhythm switches quickly, and most products are in a state of oscillation, with different potential investment opportunities and risks [2][3][14] - Different industries have different outlooks. For example, some industries like polycrystalline silicon and manganese silicon are expected to have a relatively positive trend, while others such as urea and PVC may face certain challenges in supply - demand balance and price trends [13][18][28] Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals and Base Metals - **Precious Metals**: International gold prices continued a moderate upward trend after the breakthrough, while silver, platinum, and palladium accelerated their rise, with a gain of over 10%. The Fed's easing prospects and geopolitical risks support the strength of precious metals. The spot shortage expectation makes silver, platinum, and palladium more favored by funds, and the gold - silver ratio has dropped significantly below the average. However, exchange restrictions are frequent, and market volatility is extremely high [2] - **Copper**: Copper prices continued to rise strongly last Friday. The Shanghai copper weighted reached a maximum of 102,700 yuan, and it is expected that the London copper will open at $12,700 - $12,800. The market has quickly reached the bullish targets of most overseas institutions for 2026. The target price of the copper market is raised, with the London copper at about $13,100 and the Shanghai copper at about 104,000 yuan [3] - **Aluminum**: The aluminum market's fundamentals are neutral, with poor apparent demand and spot feedback. Shanghai aluminum mainly followed the upward trend, with relatively mild fluctuations. Long - positions should be held with the 40 - day moving average as the support [4] - **Zinc**: In late December, domestic smelter overhauls increased, supporting the adjustment of Shanghai zinc above the annual line. In January, the pressure on the zinc ingot supply side is small, and with the late Spring Festival in 2026 and the expected good start, the consumption side is not pessimistic. Shanghai zinc is expected to oscillate in the range of 22,800 - 23,800 yuan/ton [7] Energy and Chemicals - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil supply is mainly affected by geopolitical factors, with the shipping rhythm in the Middle East and Russia slowing down. The demand side may be boosted by improved refinery profits and the US blockade of Venezuelan oil exports. Singapore's inventory continues to accumulate, and the high - inventory pressure is still significant. Low - sulfur fuel oil supply is dominated by overseas refinery starts. The demand side of ship fuel consumption is continuously weak due to high - sulfur substitution [21] - **Asphalt**: Since December, the weekly shipment volume has remained below 400,000 tons, at a low level in the same period of the past four years. Last week, both social and factory inventories increased. The supply - demand of BU is marginally relaxed, but positive news has a significant boost. However, it will eventually return to the price - pressured pattern dominated by supply - demand relaxation [22] Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Bean Meal**: CBOT soybeans oscillated downward after reopening last Friday, and Dalian soybean meal rose first and then fell. In the future, attention should be paid to the specific export situation of US soybeans and whether the La Nina weather in South America can have a continuous impact [35] - **Cotton**: US cotton rebounded from a low level last week, and the weekly signing data improved, with increased Chinese purchases. Domestic Zhengzhou cotton rose continuously, and the market is bullish. Although this year's new cotton production has increased significantly, the commercial inventory is basically the same as the previous year, and the sales progress is relatively fast [42] Others - **Stock Index**: The previous trading day, the broader market oscillated with heavy volume, and the Shanghai Composite Index recorded an 8 - day consecutive gain. All major futures index contracts closed higher, with IC leading the gain. Industrial profits of large - scale enterprises from January to November showed a growth trend, and the RMB exchange rate broke "7" last week [47] - **Treasury Bonds**: On December 26, 2025, the 30 - year treasury bond futures had the largest increase of 0.36%. In December, the central bank's net MLF injection was 10 billion yuan, a consecutive tenth - month incremental renewal. Against the background of increased counter - cyclical adjustment policies, long - term interest rates have risen significantly recently [48]

Group 1: Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking Copper - Domestic spot price is 97,800, three - month price is 98,860, LME three - month price is 12,133, and the ratio is 8.11 [1] Zinc - Domestic spot price is 23,200, three - month price is 23,215, LME three - month price is 3,087, and the ratio is 5.62 [1] Aluminum - Domestic spot price is 22,020, three - month price is 22,470, LME three - month price is 2,957, and the ratio is 7.54 [1] Nickel - Domestic spot price is 128,750, and the profit from spot import is 45.32 [1] Lead - Domestic spot price is 17,225, three - month price is 17,535, LME three - month price is 2,000, and the ratio is 11.58 [3] Group 2: Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking Copper - The spreads between the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot - month contract are 2,730, 2,870, 2,930, and 2,910 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 582, 1,062, 1,551, and 2,040 respectively [4] Zinc - The spreads between the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot - month contract are 140, 185, 230, and 250 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 218, 342, 466, and 591 respectively [4] Aluminum - The spreads between the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot - month contract are 210, 275, 300, and 345 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 222, 345, 468, and 591 respectively [4] Lead - The spreads between the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot - month contract are 275, 255, 255, and 250 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 211, 319, 426, and 534 respectively [4] Nickel - The spreads between the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot - month contract are 1,770, 2,050, 2,410, and 2,860 respectively [4] Tin - The spread between the 5 - month and 1 - month contracts is 1,350, and the theoretical spread is 6,941 [4] Group 3: Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking Copper - The spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts and the spot are - 1,740 and 990 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 149 and 1,087 respectively [4] Zinc - The spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts and the spot are - 170 and - 30 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 146 and 281 respectively [4] Lead - The spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts and the spot are 55 and 330 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 153 and 268 respectively [5] Group 4: Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - The ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc in Shanghai (three - continuous) are 4.26, 4.40, 5.64, 0.97, 1.28, and 0.76 respectively [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Platinum shows a strong upward trend, while palladium starts to diverge from platinum with a slower upward pace. Both are considered relatively strong [3]. - The price range is expected to be 650 - 800 yuan/gram for the main platinum contract and 480 - 600 yuan/gram for the main palladium contract [4]. - This week, the prices of platinum and palladium on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange showed positive weekly performance, but a divergence was observed. The weekly increase of platinum was over 25%, while palladium increased by only 3.4% after reaching a high and then falling. The overseas platinum and palladium prices had a greater upward rebound after a slight retreat before Christmas. Platinum hit a new high for the year, and palladium approached its previous high, getting close to the key level of $2,000 per ounce [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Trading Aspects (Price, Spread, Funds, and Positions) - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: As of the close on Friday, the total open interest of platinum on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 52,265 lots, with a trading volume of 573,824 lots this week. The total open interest of palladium was 30,775 lots, with a trading volume of 576,328 lots [8]. - **Inter - market and Spot - Futures Arbitrage**: The cross - market and spot - futures arbitrage windows for platinum and palladium continued to expand this week, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange introduced policies to prevent overheating risks [5]. - **Overseas Spot - Futures Spread**: For platinum, the spread between London spot platinum and the main New York platinum contract converged to an average of -$30 per ounce, and the spread between New York continuous platinum and the main contract was slightly at a discount of -$20 per ounce. For palladium, the spread between London spot palladium and the main New York palladium contract was at a further discount of -$120 per ounce, and the spread between New York continuous palladium and the main contract also remained negative, converging to -$35 per ounce [13][16]. - **Spot - Futures Positive Arbitrage**: For platinum, the cost of buying spot and selling the 2606 contract was 10.4 yuan/gram, with a spread of 43.2 yuan/gram, leaving a profit margin of 32.8 yuan/gram. For palladium, the cost was 7.6 yuan/gram, the spread was 30.9 yuan/gram, with a profit margin of 23.3 yuan/gram [17][19]. - **Near - Far Month Cross - Month Positive Arbitrage**: For platinum, the cost of buying the 2606 contract and selling the 2610 contract was 8.6 yuan/gram, with a spread of only 2.6 yuan/gram, so the arbitrage window was not yet open. For palladium, the cost was 6.4 yuan/gram, the spread was 6.4 yuan/gram, and the arbitrage window was also not open [21][23]. - **Import Parity Calculation**: For platinum, the cost of buying London platinum forward and selling the 2606 contract was 69.5 yuan/gram, with a spread of 190.1 yuan/gram, leaving a profit margin of 120.6 yuan/gram. For palladium, the cost was 53.8 yuan/gram, the spread was 118.2 yuan/gram, and the profit margin was 64.4 yuan/gram [25][27]. - **Recycling Spread**: As the absolute prices of platinum and palladium rose, the recycling discount of platinum deepened to -119 yuan/gram, while that of palladium remained at around -60 yuan/gram [29]. - **ETF Holdings**: This week, platinum ETF holdings increased by 1.67 tons (about 538,000 ounces), and palladium ETF holdings increased by 0.47 tons (about 151,000 ounces). The growth rate of platinum ETF holdings showed an upward trend, while that of palladium slowed down [31]. 3.2 Fundamental Aspects (Inventory and Import - Export Data) - **Forward Discount Rate**: In the past month, both the overseas forward markets of platinum and palladium were in a discount structure. This week, the platinum discount remained at a high level, with discounts for all tenors above an annualized rate of 10%. The discount of palladium decreased, with all tenors falling within an annualized rate of 3% [37]. - **Inventory and Registered Warehouse Receipt Ratio**: This week, the NYMEX platinum inventory slightly increased to 646,895.5 ounces (about 20.12 tons), and the ratio of registered warehouse receipts decreased to 48%. The NYMEX palladium inventory slightly increased to 198,039.61 ounces (about 6.16 tons), and the ratio of registered warehouse receipts rose above 71% [38][41]. - **China's Import - Export Data**: Since September 2025, the export volume of platinum has surged, the import volume and net inflow have diverged, and the cumulative net inflow since January 2020 has been 557.17 tons. In November, the import volume decreased to 4.58 tons, and the net inflow rate also slowed down to 3.34 tons. December data has not been released. Since 2020, palladium has had almost no export volume, being in a state of pure import, and the cumulative net inflow has been 162 tons. In November, the import volume increased to 3.02 tons, with a net inflow of 3.02 tons. December data has not been released [48]. - **London Fixing Supply - Demand Balance**: For London platinum, the supply - demand balance value fell into the negative range only on one day this week, and the absolute value was not large. For London palladium, the value fell into the negative range on two days, and the absolute value was also not large [50][52].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The strength analysis of the casting aluminum alloy industry is neutral [2] Core Viewpoints - The demand for casting aluminum alloys is marginally weakening, and the prices are oscillating at high levels. The supply of scrap aluminum remains tight, and cost increases provide some support for prices, but the weakening demand may suppress prices. Short - term prices may show high - level oscillations. The market has positive expectations for automobile consumption in 2026 [6] Summary by Directory 1. General Overview - In November 2025, automobile production was 353.20 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 5.15%. New energy vehicle production was 188.00 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 6.09%. The total supply was 870,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.45%. The social inventory data was not provided. The automobile inventory warning index was 45.6, a month - on - month decrease of 11.28%. Motorcycle production in December 26, 2025 was 1.84 million vehicles, a week - on - week increase of 5.26%. The price of scrap automobile wheels was 18,200 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.68%. The price of scrap motorcycle wheels was 18,075 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.69%. Small household appliance production was 34.19 million units, with no month - on - month change. The production of casting aluminum alloys in November was 680,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 21.312%. The latest value of the combined factory and social inventory of aluminum alloy ingots as of December 26 was 129,100 tons, a decrease of 1,500 tons from the previous week [7] 2. Trading End - Volume and Price - This week, the aluminum price oscillated strongly, driving the price of casting aluminum alloys up to a high of 21,600 yuan. As of December 26, the combined factory and social inventory of aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 0.15 million tons from the previous week to 12.91 million tons, with high visible inventory. From December 1 - 21, the retail volume of the national passenger car market was 1.3 million vehicles, a 19% year - on - year decrease and a 5% month - on - month increase. The cumulative retail volume this year was 22.783 million vehicles, a 4% year - on - year increase [6] 3. Trading End - Arbitrage 3.1 Inter - period Positive Spread Cost Calculation - For the AD2601 and AD2602 contracts, the futures price difference is 35 yuan/ton. The fixed cost is 8.30 yuan/ton, including VAT of 4.03 yuan/ton and trading fees of 4.28 yuan/ton. The storage cost is 38.00 yuan/ton, and the warehouse receipt capital cost is 48.99 yuan/ton. The futures capital cost is not calculated [12] 3.2 Spot - Futures Arbitrage Cost Calculation - The actual market spot price fluctuates around the Baotai price. The spot price of casting aluminum alloy is 21,600 yuan/ton, the spot warehouse storage fee is 1 yuan/ton/day, the storage time is 329 days, and the total cost including storage, capital, and registration is 22,549.7 yuan/ton [13][14] 4. Supply End - Scrap Aluminum - Scrap aluminum production is at a high level, and social inventory is continuously decreasing. Scrap aluminum imports are also at a high level, with a relatively fast year - on - year growth rate. For example, in November 2025, the import of aluminum scrap and fragments was 1.684 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 28.17% [16][20] 5. Supply End - Recycled Aluminum - The price of Baotai ADC12 has been raised, and the spread between recycled and primary aluminum has strengthened. The regional spread of casting aluminum alloys shows certain seasonal patterns. The weekly operating rate of casting aluminum alloys remains flat, while the monthly operating rate has declined. The production of recycled aluminum alloys has corresponding data, and the cost of ADC12 is mainly composed of scrap aluminum, currently in a loss state. The factory inventory of casting aluminum alloys has slightly increased, while the social inventory has decreased. The import window for casting aluminum alloys is temporarily closed [30][40][46] 5.1 Recycled Aluminum Rod - The production and inventory data of recycled aluminum rods are provided. The production of recycled aluminum rods in different regions has different proportions, and the same goes for the factory inventory [59][60][61] 6. Demand End - Terminal Consumption - Terminal consumption: Fuel - powered vehicles are in the year - end sales push stage, which is transmitted to the die - casting consumption. Data on the production of new energy vehicles, fuel - powered vehicles, motorcycles, and small household appliances are presented, as well as the PPI of auto parts and the auto inventory warning index [65][66]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The report provides cross - market, cross - period, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, and tin on December 26, 2025 [1][4][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: Domestic spot price is 94825, March price is 96370, LME March price is 12133, and the ratio is 7.86 [1] - **Zinc**: Domestic spot price is 23090, March price is 23095, LME March price is 3087, and the ratio is 5.59 [1] - **Aluminum**: Domestic spot price is 21980, March price is 22325, LME March price is 2957, and the ratio is 7.51 [1] - **Nickel**: Domestic spot price is 126100, and the profit of spot import is 45.32 [1] - **Lead**: Domestic spot price is 17125, March price is 17315, LME March price is 2000, and the ratio is 11.52 [3] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are 350, 510, 580, 640 respectively, with theoretical spreads of 581, 1061, 1549, 2037 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads of次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are - 125, - 95, - 50, - 20 respectively, with theoretical spreads of 219, 344, 469, 594 [4] - **Aluminum**: The spreads of次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are 20, 70, 120, 135 respectively, with theoretical spreads of 222, 346, 469, 592 [4] - **Lead**: The spreads of次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are 75, 75, 60, 50 respectively, with theoretical spreads of 211, 318, 426, 533 [4] - **Nickel**: The spreads of次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are - 2240, - 1930, - 1690, - 1280 respectively [4] - **Tin**: The 5 - 1 spread is 1780, with a theoretical spread of 6890 [4] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of当月合约 - 现货 and 次月合约 - 现货 are 1130 and 1480 respectively, with theoretical spreads of 570 and 1145 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads of当月合约 - 现货 and 次月合约 - 现货 are 100 and - 25 respectively, with theoretical spreads of 151 and 286 [4] - **Zinc (another record)**: The spreads of当月合约 - 现货 and 次月合约 - 现货 are 100 and - 25 respectively, with theoretical spreads of 198 and 332 [5] - **Lead**: The spreads of当月合约 - 现货 and 次月合约 - 现货 are 115 and 190 respectively, with theoretical spreads of 165 and 279 [5] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - The ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc for Shanghai (three - continuous) are 4.17, 4.32, 5.57, 0.97, 1.29, 0.75 respectively [5]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. 2) Core View - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, spot - futures, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, and tin on December 25, 2025, which can help investors find potential arbitrage opportunities [1][3][4]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: Spot domestic price is 94,660, LME price is 12,243, and the ratio is 7.62; March domestic price is 96,230, LME price is 12,224, and the ratio is 7.80. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 7.98, with a loss of 2,003.83, and a profit of 1,716.73 for spot export [1]. - **Zinc**: Spot domestic price is 23,270, LME price is 3,097, and the ratio is 7.51; March domestic price is 23,270, LME price is 3,126, and the ratio is 5.49. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.39, with a loss of 2,720.57 [1]. - **Aluminum**: Spot domestic price is 22,030, LME price is 2,933, and the ratio is 7.51; March domestic price is 22,385, LME price is 2,968, and the ratio is 7.50. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.35, with a loss of 2,479.20 [1]. - **Nickel**: Spot domestic price is 129,900, LME price is 15,697, and the ratio is 8.28. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.06, with a profit of 45.32 [1]. - **Lead**: Spot domestic price is 17,025, LME price is 1,960, and the ratio is 8.69; March domestic price is 17,200, LME price is 1,998, and the ratio is 11.63. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.63, with a profit of 106.45 [3]. Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the next - month, March, April, and May contracts and the spot - month contract are 2,360, 2,490, 2,530, and 2,560 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 571, 1,039, 1,517, and 1,995 respectively [4]. - **Zinc**: The spreads between the next - month, March, April, and May contracts and the spot - month contract are 165, 205, 235, and 250 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 218, 343, 467, and 591 respectively [4]. - **Aluminum**: The spreads between the next - month, March, April, and May contracts and the spot - month contract are 200, 255, 275, and 315 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 222, 344, 467, and 590 respectively [4]. - **Lead**: The spreads between the next - month, March, April, and May contracts and the spot - month contract are 245, 220, 245, and 255 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 210, 316, 422, and 528 respectively [4]. - **Nickel**: The spreads between the next - month, March, April, and May contracts and the spot - month contract are 4,960, 5,210, 5,370, and 5,720 respectively [4]. - **Tin**: The spread between the 5 - month and 1 - month contracts is 1,660, and the theoretical spread is 7,006 [4]. Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts and the spot are - 920 and 1,440 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 302 and 1,169 respectively [4]. - **Zinc**: The spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts and the spot are - 205 and - 40 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 154 and 290 respectively [4][5]. - **Lead**: The spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts and the spot are - 45 and 200 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 145 and 259 respectively [5]. Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - The ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc for Shanghai (three - continuous) are 4.14, 4.30, 5.59, 0.96, 1.30, and 0.74 respectively; for LME (three - continuous) are 3.94, 4.11, 6.10, 0.96, 1.48, and 0.65 respectively [5].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the reports. 2) Core View - The reports mainly focus on the cross - market, cross - period, spot - futures, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking of non - ferrous metals (copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, tin) on December 23, 2025, presenting relevant prices, ratios, spreads, and profit data [1][4][5]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On December 23, 2025, the domestic spot price was 93,770, LME spot price was 11,976, and the spot ratio was 7.73. The three - month domestic price was 94,370, LME price was 11,969, and the ratio was 7.87. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.00, with a profit of - 1754.65, and the profit for spot export was 1058.03 [1]. - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 23,130, LME spot price was 3059, and the spot ratio was 7.56. The three - month domestic price was 23,155, LME price was 3092, and the ratio was 5.47. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.42, with a profit of - 2628.45 [1]. - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot price was 21,940, LME spot price was 2919, and the spot ratio was 7.51. The three - month domestic price was 22,270, LME price was 2960, and the ratio was 7.49. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.35, with a profit of - 2459.99 [1]. - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 120,850, LME spot price was 15,051, and the spot ratio was 8.03. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.09, with a profit of - 557.70 [1]. - **Lead**: The domestic spot price was 16,800, LME spot price was 1932, and the spot ratio was 8.71. The three - month domestic price was 16,920, LME price was 1979, and the ratio was 11.66. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.67, with a profit of 85.37 [3]. Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts relative to the spot month were 1320, 1370, 1430, and 1480 respectively, while the theoretical spreads were 567, 1032, 1506, and 1980 respectively [4]. - **Zinc**: The spreads were 50, 90, 110, and 110 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 218, 343, 467, and 591 respectively [4]. - **Aluminum**: The spreads were 100, 150, 180, and 205 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 222, 344, 467, and 589 respectively [4]. - **Lead**: The spreads were 70, 70, 90, and 140 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 209, 315, 420, and 525 respectively [4]. - **Nickel**: The spreads of the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts relative to the spot month were 4520, 4620, 4920, and 5190 respectively [4]. - **Tin**: The 5 - 1 spread was 1400, and the theoretical spread was 6999 [4]. Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of the current - month and next - month contracts relative to the spot were - 665 and 655 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 355 and 1065 respectively [4]. - **Zinc**: The spreads were - 65 and - 15 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 166 and 301 respectively [4]. - **Lead**: The spreads were 50 and 120 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 166 and 278 respectively [5]. Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - On December 23, 2025, the cross - variety ratios for copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc in Shanghai (three - continuous contracts) were 4.08, 4.24, 5.58, 0.96, 1.32, and 0.73 respectively, and in London (three - continuous contracts) were 3.87, 4.05, 6.05, 0.95, 1.49, and 0.64 respectively [5].

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Core Viewpoint - The Bitcoin market is experiencing significant selling pressure from long-term holders, leading to a nearly 30% decline in Bitcoin prices since reaching a historical high of $126,000, with diminishing market support [1][5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Long-term holders have been selling Bitcoin at an unprecedented rate, with 1.6 million Bitcoins (valued at approximately $140 billion) that had not been transferred for at least two years being sold since the beginning of 2023 [1][5]. - In 2025 alone, nearly $300 billion worth of Bitcoin that had been dormant for over a year is expected to re-enter circulation [1]. - The selling pressure has been exacerbated by a lack of liquidity in the spot market, making it difficult for prices to rebound [1][6]. Group 2: Impact of External Events - On October 10, a statement from former U.S. President Donald Trump triggered a $19 billion liquidation in the cryptocurrency market, marking the largest single-day liquidation of leveraged funds in history [2][6]. - Following this event, traders have largely exited the derivatives market, and there are currently no clear signs of a price rebound [2][6]. Group 3: Investor Behavior - Some industry executives view the selling by long-term holders as a normal phenomenon, especially given the substantial profits many investors have realized [2][6]. - The price of Bitcoin briefly rose to $90,000 due to short positions being liquidated but quickly fell back, indicating ongoing volatility [2][6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the selling pressure from long-term holders may be nearing saturation, with approximately 20% of Bitcoin's circulating supply being reactivated over the past two years [4][8]. - Expectations are that the selling behavior of early investors will diminish by early 2026, potentially leading to a net buying state in the Bitcoin market as institutional investors increase their positions [4][8].

Core Viewpoint - The platinum market is experiencing a strong upward trend, driven by supply-demand imbalances and macroeconomic factors, with prices expected to remain robust in the short term [2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - Platinum futures opened at 482.00 CNY/g and reached a high of 505.60 CNY/g, with a price increase of 3.99% during the trading session [1]. - The trading volume of platinum and palladium has surged, with positions exceeding 1.5 times that of the previous day, indicating strong market activity [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The current supply-demand imbalance in the platinum market resembles a structural tightness similar to that of silver, leading to a squeeze in the market [2]. - Short-term supply constraints are providing fundamental support for palladium prices, while the increase in silver prices is also positively impacting platinum and palladium [2][3]. Group 3: Macroeconomic Factors - The macroeconomic environment is favorable for the price increase of platinum and palladium, supported by resilient consumer demand and geopolitical uncertainties affecting the stability of exports from major producing countries [3]. - The current high basis and price differentials between platinum and palladium are attracting arbitrage funds, which are increasing physical inventory and driving up spot prices [2].