有色套利早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/10/15 铜：跨市套利跟踪 2025/10/15 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 85925 - - 三月 84380 10527 8.18 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 - - 现货出口 - 锌：跨市套利跟踪 2025/10/15 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 22210 - - 三月 22255 2978 5.73 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 - - 铝：跨市套利跟踪 2025/10/15 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 20890 - - 三月 20875 2736 7.65 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 - - 镍：跨市套利跟踪 2025/10/15 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 123150 - - 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 - -1256.48 跨期套利跟踪 2025/10/15 铜 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 -590 -620 -710 -760 理论价差 527 952 1386 1820 锌 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 15 50 80 100 理论价差 214 334 454 ...

铅：跨市套利跟踪 2025/10/14 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 16925 - - 三月 17110 2007 11.09 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 - - 跨期套利跟踪 2025/10/14 铜 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 120 120 80 90 理论价差 527 952 1386 1820 锌 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 50 85 115 135 理论价差 214 334 454 574 铝 次月-现货月 三月-现货月四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 20 25 25 30 理论价差 215 332 448 564 铅 次月-现货月 三月-现货 月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 -5 10 5 25 理论价差 211 317 424 530 镍 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货 月 五月-现货月 价差 260 430 700 880 锡 5-1 价差 80 理论价差 5841 期现套利跟踪 2025/10/14 铜 当月合约-现货 次月合约-现货 价差 -10 110 理论价差 98 585 锌 当月合约-现货 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, spot - futures, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for various non - ferrous metals (copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, tin) on October 13, 2025, including prices, ratios, spreads, and profit data [1][4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On October 13, 2025, the domestic spot price was 86,550, the LME price was 10,706, and the ratio was 8.11. The profit from spot import was - 947.78 [1]. - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 22,310, the LME price was 3,104, and the ratio was 7.19. The profit from spot import was - 4,175.73 [1]. - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot price was 20,990, the LME price was 2,780, and the ratio was 7.55. The profit from spot import was - 2,342.57 [1]. - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 124,900, the LME price was 15,131, and the ratio was 8.25. The profit from spot import was - 1,256.48 [1]. - **Lead**: The domestic spot price was 16,925, the LME price was 1,988, and the ratio was 8.51. The profit from spot import was - 642.27 [3]. Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the next month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot month were - 820, - 820, - 790, and - 850 respectively, while the theoretical spreads were 536, 969, 1412, and 1855 [4]. - **Zinc**: The spreads were - 10, 20, 50, and 65, and the theoretical spreads were 214, 335, 455, and 576 [4]. - **Aluminum**: The spreads were - 120, - 105, - 105, and - 130, and the theoretical spreads were 217, 334, 452, and 569 [4]. - **Lead**: The spreads were 40, 50, 65, and 35, and the theoretical spreads were 211, 317, 424, and 530 [4]. - **Nickel**: The spreads were - 2080, - 1890, - 1700, and - 1550 [4]. - **Tin**: The spread for 5 - 1 was - 150, and the theoretical spread was 5921 [4]. Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts and the spot were 75 and - 745, and the theoretical spreads were 174 and 533 [4]. - **Zinc**: The spreads were - 30 and - 40, and the theoretical spreads were 81 and 211 [4]. - **Lead**: The spreads were 175 and 215, and the theoretical spreads were 117 and 230 [5]. Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - On October 13, 2025, for the cross - variety ratios: copper/zinc (Shanghai: 3.85, London: 3.50), copper/aluminum (Shanghai: 4.09, London: 3.83), copper/lead (Shanghai: 5.01, London: 5.21), aluminum/zinc (Shanghai: 0.94, London: 0.92), aluminum/lead (Shanghai: 1.22, London: 1.36), lead/zinc (Shanghai: 0.77, London: 0.67) [5].

Core Insights - The market basis for alumina futures reflects the difference between spot prices and futures prices, influenced by supply and demand, storage costs, and policy expectations [1] Group 1: Factors Influencing Basis Formation - Supply and Demand: Short-term shortages in the spot market, such as increased production of electrolytic aluminum or reduced production of alumina, can raise spot prices and expand positive basis. For instance, the basis for the December 2024 alumina 2501 contract reached 496 CNY/ton due to limited circulation of goods [2] - Costs and Logistics: Transportation bottlenecks for bauxite or rising storage costs can widen the basis. For example, the suspension of bauxite exports from Guinea led to futures prices rising above spot prices, resulting in a negative basis of -329 CNY/ton [2] - Policy and Market Expectations: Environmental production limits and tariff adjustments can cause regional basis fluctuations. Typically, the basis converges as the delivery month approaches, although liquidity risks may weaken this convergence [2] Group 2: Significance of Basis for Trading - Hedging: Dynamic position adjustments are necessary to hedge against basis volatility risks [3] - Arbitrage Opportunities: When the basis deviates from historical averages (e.g., alumina basis rate above 80% of the statistical range), there may be opportunities for futures-spot arbitrage [3] - Price Forecasting: The structure of the basis (e.g., backwardation in distant months) can indicate the market's long-term supply and demand expectations [4]

1. Cross - market Arbitrage Tracking Copper - Spot price in China is 85,900, LME price is 10,843, and the ratio is 7.69; three - month price in China is 86,820, LME price is 10,868, and the ratio is 7.90. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.11, with a loss of 968.44, and a profit of 1465.36 for spot export [1] Zinc - Spot price in China is 22,140, LME price is 3,096, and the ratio is 7.15; three - month price in China is 22,335, LME price is 3,030, and the ratio is 5.59. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.53, with a loss of 4264.28 [1] Aluminum - Spot price in China is 20,960, LME price is 2,796, and the ratio is 7.50; three - month price in China is 21,085, LME price is 2,788, and the ratio is 7.53. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.38, with a loss of 2476.58 [1] Nickel - Spot price in China is 121,850, LME price is 15,358, and the ratio is 7.93. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.19, with a loss of 2247.17 [1] Lead - Spot price in China is 16,775, LME price is 1,986, and the ratio is 8.46; three - month price in China is 17,135, LME price is 2,016, and the ratio is 11.02. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.83, with a loss of 734.46 [3] 2. Cross - term Arbitrage Tracking Copper - The spreads of the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts relative to the spot - month contract are 3400, 3470, 3500, and 3400 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 519, 936, 1361, and 1787 [4] Zinc - The spreads of the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts relative to the spot - month contract are 1175, 1195, 1230, and 1260 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 209, 323, 438, and 553 [4] Aluminum - The spreads of the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts relative to the spot - month contract are 380, 375, 375, and 370 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 215, 330, 446, and 561 [4] Lead - The spreads of the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts relative to the spot - month contract are 690, 710, 720, and 595 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 207, 310, 413, and 517 [4] Nickel - The spreads of the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts relative to the spot - month contract are 4170, 4350, 4540, and 4810 respectively [4] Tin - The spread of the 5 - 1 contract is - 210, and the theoretical spread is 5939 [4] 3. Spot - futures Arbitrage Tracking Copper - The spreads of the current - month and next - month contracts relative to the spot are - 2370 and 1030 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are - 208 and 762 [4] Zinc - The spreads of the current - month and next - month contracts relative to the spot are - 1000 and 175 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 116 and 246 (also mentioned as 59 and 240) [4][5] Lead - The spreads of the current - month and next - month contracts relative to the spot are - 350 and 340 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 44 and 156 [5] 4. Cross - variety Arbitrage Tracking - The ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc for Shanghai (three - continuous contracts) are 3.89, 4.12, 5.07, 0.94, 1.23, and 0.77 respectively; for LME (three - continuous contracts) are 3.61, 3.88, 5.35, 0.93, 1.38, and 0.67 respectively [5]

Report Overview - The report provides cross - market, cross - period, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals on October 9, 2025 [1] Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking Copper - Spot price in China is 83240, LME price is 10339, and the ratio is 8.06; March price in China is 83110, LME price is 10382, and the ratio is 8.00. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.10, with a profit of - 295.06 [1] Zinc - Spot price in China is 21820, LME price is 2971, and the ratio is 7.34; March price in China is 21850, LME price is 2915, and the ratio is 5.81. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.53, with a profit of - 3533.69 [1] Aluminum - Spot price in China is 20720, LME price is 2663, and the ratio is 7.78; March price in China is 20690, LME price is 2665, and the ratio is 7.79. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.39, with a profit of - 1618.40 [1] Nickel - Spot price in China is 120150, LME price is 15012, and the ratio is 8.00. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.18, with a profit of - 1281.13 [1] Lead - Spot price in China is 16775, LME price is 1949, and the ratio is 8.62; March price in China is 16985, LME price is 1991, and the ratio is 11.00. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.83, with a profit of - 406.67 [3] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking Copper - The spreads of next - month, March, April, and May relative to the spot month are - 240, - 240, - 300, - 300 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 519, 936, 1361, 1787 [4] Zinc - The spreads of next - month, March, April, and May relative to the spot month are 685, 710, 735, 785 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 209, 323, 438, 553 [4] Aluminum - The spreads of next - month, March, April, and May relative to the spot month are - 30, - 20, - 10, - 10 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 215, 330, 446, 561 [4] Lead - The spreads of next - month, March, April, and May relative to the spot month are 515, 560, 570, 530 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 207, 310, 413, 517 [4] Nickel - The spreads of next - month, March, April, and May relative to the spot month are 590, 750, 960, 1260 respectively [4] Tin - The 5 - 1 spread is 300, and the theoretical spread is 5700 [4] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking Copper - The spreads of the current - month and next - month contracts relative to the spot are 155 and - 85 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 314 and 739 [4] Zinc - The spreads of the current - month and next - month contracts relative to the spot are - 680 and 5 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 129 and 257 [4] Lead - The spreads of the current - month and next - month contracts relative to the spot are - 350 and 165 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 77 and 190 [5] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - The ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc for Shanghai (three - continuous) are 3.80, 4.02, 4.89, 0.95, 1.22, 0.78 respectively, and for LME (three - continuous) are 3.47, 3.83, 5.16, 0.91, 1.35, 0.67 respectively [5]

Core Insights - The basis of alumina futures is expected to change, reflecting the difference between spot and futures prices, which is a normal occurrence driven by various factors [1] Group 1: Factors Influencing Basis Changes - Supply and demand dynamics: Short-term shortages or surpluses in the spot market, such as production increases or decreases in electrolytic aluminum plants, directly impact the basis [3] - Futures contract expiration: As the delivery month approaches, the basis typically converges, meaning futures prices align more closely with spot prices [3] - Storage and transportation costs: Logistics bottlenecks, such as port inventories and railway capacity, can widen the basis [3] - Policies and tariffs: Adjustments in export tariffs and environmental production limits may cause regional basis fluctuations [3] Group 2: Basis Change Patterns - Positive basis (spot premium): Common during periods of spot shortages, such as the 2022 European energy crisis that led to reduced aluminum production and a premium for spot alumina [3] - Negative basis (futures premium): Anticipation of future surpluses, such as new mines coming online, may lead futures prices to reflect this ahead of time [3] Group 3: Implications for Traders - Hedging: Companies need to dynamically adjust positions to hedge against basis risks [3] - Arbitrage opportunities: Deviations from historical averages in the basis may present opportunities for spot-futures arbitrage [3] - Delivery decisions: As the delivery month approaches, it is essential to assess the convergence path of the basis [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoint - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, spot - futures, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, lead, nickel, and tin on September 29, 2025 [1][3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On September 29, 2025, the domestic spot price was 82,480, the LME price was 10,233, and the ratio was 8.08. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.12, with a profit of - 652.74, and the profit for spot export was 134.27. The three - month domestic price was 82,480, the LME price was 10,272, and the ratio was 8.04 [1] - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 21,950, the LME price was 2,957, and the ratio was 7.42. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.55, with a profit of - 3,338.99. The three - month domestic price was 21,995, the LME price was 2,918, and the ratio was 5.85 [1] - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot price was 20,770, the LME price was 2,651, and the ratio was 7.83. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.40, with a profit of - 1,511.91. The three - month domestic price was 20,755, the LME price was 2,656, and the ratio was 7.82 [1] - **Lead**: The domestic spot price was 16,900, the LME price was 1,964, and the ratio was 8.62. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.84, with a profit of - 437.61. The three - month domestic price was 17,125, the LME price was 2,006, and the ratio was 10.99 [3] - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 120,550, the LME price was 15,043, and the ratio was 8.01. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.20, with a profit of - 2,042.46 [1] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot month were - 190, - 180, - 240, and - 260 respectively, while the theoretical spreads were 515, 929, 1351, and 1773 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were - 50, - 35, - 5, and 30, and the theoretical spreads were 213, 332, 451, and 571 [4] - **Aluminum**: The spreads were - 15, - 5, - 5, and 0, and the theoretical spreads were 215, 331, 446, and 562 [4] - **Lead**: The spreads were 50, 65, 80, and 65, and the theoretical spreads were 210, 317, 423, and 529 [4] - **Nickel**: The spreads were - 1300, - 1080, - 920, and - 670 [4] - **Tin**: The 5 - 1 spread was 310, and the theoretical spread was 5680 [4] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts and the spot were 210 and 20 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 383 and 811 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were 80 and 30, and the theoretical spreads were 151 and 279 [4] - **Lead**: The spreads were 160 and 210, and the theoretical spreads were 167 and 280 [4] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - On September 29, 2025, the ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc for Shanghai (three - continuous contracts) were 3.75, 3.97, 4.82, 0.94, 1.21, and 0.78 respectively, and for London (three - continuous contracts) were 3.52, 3.83, 5.08, 0.92, 1.33, and 0.69 respectively [5]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2) Core Viewpoints - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals on September 25, 2025, including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, etc., to help investors understand the price relationships and profit situations in different trading scenarios [1][4][5] 3) Summary by Directory Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On September 25, 2025, the domestic spot price was 80025, the LME price was 9935, and the ratio was 8.05. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.12, with a loss of 693.47, and a profit of 317.82 for spot export [1] - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 21830, the LME price was 2941, and the ratio was 7.42. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.55, with a loss of 3318.32 [1] - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot price was 20680, the LME price was 2635, and the ratio was 7.85. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.40, with a loss of 1467.29 [1] - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 120450, the LME price was 15121, and the ratio was 7.97. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.20, with a loss of 2283.59 [1] - **Lead**: The domestic spot price was 16925, the LME price was 1960, and the ratio was 8.65. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.84, with a loss of 377.93 [3] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On September 25, 2025, the spreads between the next month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot month were 30, 10, 20, and 0 respectively, while the theoretical spreads were 502, 901, 1310, and 1719 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were 20, 35, 50, and 75, and the theoretical spreads were 212, 330, 449, and 567 [4] - **Aluminum**: The spreads were 20, 20, 35, and 30, and the theoretical spreads were 214, 330, 445, and 561 [4] - **Lead**: The spreads were 25, 50, 35, and 65, and the theoretical spreads were 210, 316, 423, and 529 [4] - **Nickel**: The spreads between the next month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot month were 720, 900, 1160, and 1400 [4] - **Tin**: The 5 - 1 spread was 1360, and the theoretical spread was 5635 [4] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - On September 25, 2025, the ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc for Shanghai (three - continuous) were 3.65, 3.86, 4.68, 0.95, 1.21, and 0.78 respectively, and for London (three - continuous) were 3.52, 3.90, 5.17, 0.90, 1.33, and 0.68 [5] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts and the spot were - 75 and - 45 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 363 and 811 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were 10 and 30, and the theoretical spreads were 159 and 286 [4] - **Lead**: The spreads were 115 and 140, and the theoretical spreads were 168 and 281 [5]

Report Overview - The report is the "Non-ferrous Arbitrage Morning Report" released by the Non-ferrous Team of the Research Center on September 22, 2025, focusing on cross - market, cross - period, and cross -品种 arbitrage tracking of non - ferrous metals [1] Cross - Market Arbitrage Copper - Spot price: domestic 79980, LME 9898, ratio 8.05; March price: domestic 79880, LME 9963, ratio 8.02; Spot import equilibrium ratio 8.11, profit - 331.21; Spot export profit - 55.51 [1] Zinc - Spot price: domestic 22000, LME 2969, ratio 7.41; March price: domestic 22060, LME 2918, ratio 5.87; Spot import equilibrium ratio 8.53, profit - 3326.26 [1] Aluminum - Spot price: domestic 20810, LME 2698, ratio 7.71; March price: domestic 20795, LME 2693, ratio 7.74; Spot import equilibrium ratio 8.37, profit - 1780.86 [1] Nickel - Spot price: domestic 120750, LME 15146, ratio 7.97; Spot import equilibrium ratio 8.18, profit - 2190.00 [1] Lead - Spot price: domestic 17025, LME 1967, ratio 8.64; March price: domestic 17200, LME 2011, ratio 10.97; Spot import equilibrium ratio 8.82, profit - 347.77 [3] Cross - Period Arbitrage Copper - Sub - month - spot month, March - spot month, April - spot month, May - spot month spreads are 230, 260, 240, 240 respectively; Theoretical spreads are 500, 898, 1305, 1712 respectively [4] Zinc - Sub - month - spot month, March - spot month, April - spot month, May - spot month spreads are 5, 25, 45, 75 respectively; Theoretical spreads are 213, 332, 452, 571 respectively [4] Aluminum - Sub - month - spot month, March - spot month, April - spot month, May - spot month spreads are 20, 20, 15, 20 respectively; Theoretical spreads are 215, 331, 447, 563 respectively [4] Lead - Sub - month - spot month, March - spot month, April - spot month, May - spot month spreads are 35, 55, 25, 30 respectively; Theoretical spreads are 211, 317, 424, 531 respectively [4] Nickel - Sub - month - spot month, March - spot month, April - spot month, May - spot month spreads are 790, 980, 1220, 1460 respectively [4] Tin - 5 - 1 spread is 640, theoretical spread is 5579 [4] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Copper - Current month contract - spot spread is - 330, theoretical spread is 398; Sub - month contract - spot spread is - 100, theoretical spread is 874 [4] Zinc - Current month contract - spot spread is 35, theoretical spread is 182; Sub - month contract - spot spread is 40, theoretical spread is 311 [4] Lead - Current month contract - spot spread is 120, theoretical spread is 188; Sub - month contract - spot spread is 155, theoretical spread is 302 [5] Cross - Variety Arbitrage - Copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, lead/zinc: Shanghai (three - continuous) ratios are 3.62, 3.84, 4.64, 0.94, 1.21, 0.78 respectively; London (three - continuous) ratios are 3.46, 3.74, 5.00, 0.92, 1.34, 0.69 respectively [5]