交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2025-9-11 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 纯碱： 1、基本面：碱厂检修较少，供给仍处高位；下游浮法玻璃日熔量平稳，光伏日熔量下滑，终端 需求走弱，纯碱厂库处于历史高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1190元/吨，SA2601收盘价为1281元/吨，基差为-91元，期货 升水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存182.21万吨，较前一周减少2.43%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面供强需弱，短期预计震荡偏弱运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、年内检修高峰期来临，产量预计将有所下滑。 利空： 1、23年以来，纯碱产能大幅扩张， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply side: In August 2025, the total planned production volume of domestic asphalt was 2413,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt decreased by 1.44 percentage points month - on - month, the sample enterprise output decreased by 4.37% month - on - month, and the sample enterprise device maintenance volume increased by 5.25% month - on - month. Refineries reduced production this week, but supply pressure may increase next week [8]. - Demand side: The current demand is lower than the historical average level. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 decreased by 0.05 percentage points month - on - month, the building asphalt开工率 remained flat month - on - month, the modified asphalt开工率 increased by 0.15 percentage points month - on - month, the road - modified asphalt开工率 remained flat month - on - month, and the waterproofing membrane开工率 increased by 3.26 percentage points month - on - month [8]. - Cost side: The daily asphalt processing profit increased by 5.60% month - on - month, the weekly Shandong local refinery delayed coking profit decreased by 6.05% month - on - month, the asphalt processing loss increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreased. Crude oil weakened, and it is expected that the support will weaken in the short term [9]. - Expectation: Refineries have reduced production recently, and the overall demand recovery is less than expected and sluggish; inventory remains flat; crude oil weakens, and the cost support weakens in the short term. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, and asphalt 2511 will fluctuate in the range of 3447 - 3489 [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: The planned production volume in August decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. This week, refineries reduced production, with a decrease in capacity utilization rate and output and an increase in maintenance volume. Supply pressure may increase next week [8]. - **Demand**: The开工率 of various types of asphalt is mostly lower than the historical average, indicating weak demand [8]. - **Cost**: The asphalt processing profit and the profit difference with delayed coking changed, and crude oil weakening may lead to weaker support [9]. - **Likely factors**: Positive factors include relatively high crude oil costs providing some support; negative factors include insufficient demand for high - price goods and overall downward demand with strengthened expectations of economic recession in Europe and the United States [13][14]. - **Main logic**: Supply pressure remains high, and demand recovery is weak [15]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Base difference**: On September 4th, the Shandong spot price was 3540 yuan/ton, and the 11 - contract base difference was 98 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures, which is positive [11]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory decreased by 1.70% month - on - month, factory inventory decreased by 5.86% month - on - month, and port diluted asphalt inventory increased by 26.67% month - on - month. Social and factory inventories are in a destocking state, while port inventory is in a stocking state, which is neutral [11]. - **Futures price trend**: MA20 is downward, and the 11 - contract futures price closed below MA20, which is negative [11]. - **Main position**: The main position is net long, but the long position decreased, which is positive [11]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market Analysis - **Base difference trend**: The report shows the historical trends of Shandong and East China base differences [20]. - **Spread analysis**: - **Main - contract spread**: The report shows the historical trends of 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads [23]. - **Asphalt - crude oil price trend**: The report shows the historical trends of asphalt, Brent oil, and West Texas oil prices [26]. - **Crude oil cracking spread**: The report shows the historical trends of asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent cracking spreads [29]. - **Asphalt - crude oil - fuel oil price ratio trend**: The report shows the historical trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil price ratios [33]. 3.4 Asphalt Spot Market Analysis - **Regional market price trend**: The report shows the historical trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt price [36]. 3.5 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit analysis**: - **Asphalt profit**: The report shows the historical trend of asphalt profit [38]. - **Coking - asphalt profit spread trend**: The report shows the historical trend of the coking - asphalt profit spread [41]. - **Supply - side analysis**: - **Shipment volume**: The report shows the historical trend of weekly shipment volume [44]. - **Diluted asphalt port inventory**: The report shows the historical trend of domestic diluted asphalt port inventory [46]. - **Output**: The report shows the historical trends of weekly and monthly output [49]. - **Marey crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly output trend**: The report shows the historical trends of Marey crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly output [53]. - **Local refinery asphalt output**: The report shows the historical trend of local refinery asphalt output [56]. - **开工率**: The report shows the historical trend of weekly开工率 [59]. - **Maintenance loss volume estimate**: The report shows the historical trend of maintenance loss volume estimate [61]. - **Inventory analysis**: - **Exchange warehouse receipts**: The report shows the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) [64]. - **Social inventory and factory inventory**: The report shows the historical trends of social inventory (70 samples) and factory inventory (54 samples) [68]. - **Factory inventory inventory ratio**: The report shows the historical trend of the factory inventory inventory ratio [71]. - **Import - export situation**: The report shows the historical trends of asphalt export, import, and the import price difference from South Korea [74][77]. - **Demand - side analysis**: - **Petroleum coke output**: The report shows the historical trend of petroleum coke output [80]. - **Apparent consumption**: The report shows the historical trend of apparent consumption [83]. - **Downstream demand**: The report shows the historical trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year [86]. - **Downstream machinery demand**: The report shows the historical trends of asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly working hours, domestic excavator sales, and roller sales [90]. - **Asphalt开工率**: The report shows the historical trends of heavy - traffic asphalt开工率, asphalt开工率 by use, and downstream开工率 (such as shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt) [95][98][99]. - **Supply - demand balance sheet**: The report provides the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to August 2025 [104].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the PVC industry is bearish [11] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view on PVC is bearish. The main logic is the strong overall supply pressure and the poor recovery of domestic demand. There are both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits. Negative factors include the rebound of overall supply pressure, high inventory levels with slow consumption, and weak domestic and external demand [11][13][14] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Views - The daily view on PVC is bearish. Positive factors are supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits. Negative factors are the rebound of overall supply pressure, high inventory levels with slow consumption, and weak domestic and external demand. The main logic is the strong overall supply pressure and the poor recovery of domestic demand [11][13][14] 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Supply Side**: In July 2025, PVC production was 2.00461 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.67%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises was 76.02%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.02 percentage points. The production of calcium carbide enterprises was 330,135 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.57%, and the production of ethylene enterprises was 125,160 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.34%. This week, the supply pressure decreased. Next week, it is expected that maintenance will decrease and production scheduling will increase slightly [7] - **Demand Side**: The overall downstream operating rate was 42.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.10 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream profile operating rate was 42.6%, a month - on - month increase of 0.95 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The downstream pipe operating rate was 33.61%, unchanged from the previous month, lower than the historical average. The downstream film operating rate was 70.77%, unchanged from the previous month, higher than the historical average. The downstream paste resin operating rate was 69.26%, a month - on - month decrease of 8.27 percentage points, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to decline, and domestic PVC export prices are competitive. Current demand may remain sluggish [7] - **Cost Side**: The profit of calcium carbide method was - 399.2026 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase in losses of 79.20%, lower than the historical average. The profit of ethylene method was - 627.9512 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase in losses of 6.10%, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2,667.05 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease in profit of 1.00%, lower than the historical average. Production scheduling may be under pressure [8] - **Basis**: On September 4th, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4,730 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 153 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [9] - **Inventory**: Factory inventory was 312,148 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.00%. Calcium carbide factory inventory was 242,148 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.07%. Ethylene factory inventory was 70,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.54%. Social inventory was 521,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.73%. The inventory days of production enterprises in stock were 5.2 days, a month - on - month increase of 1.96% [9] - **Market**: MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed below MA20 [9] - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions increased [9] - **Expectation**: The cost of calcium carbide method and ethylene method is weakening, and the overall cost is weakening. This week, the supply pressure decreased. Next week, it is expected that maintenance will decrease and production scheduling will increase. The overall inventory is at a high level, and current demand may remain sluggish. Continuously monitor macro - policies and export trends. PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4,853 - 4,913 [9] 3.3 PVC Market Overview - The report provides a detailed overview of the previous day's PVC market, including prices, price changes, inventory levels, operating rates, and cost - profit data for different types of PVC products and related production methods [15] 3.4 PVC Futures Market - The report includes analyses of the basis trend, price trend, trading volume, open interest, and spread analysis of PVC futures contracts [18][21][24] 3.5 PVC Fundamental Analysis - **Calcium Carbide Method - Related Factors**: Analyzes the price, cost - profit, operating rate, inventory, and production of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, caustic soda, and the cost - profit of the chlor - alkali industry [27][30][32][35][37] - **PVC Supply Trend**: Analyzes the capacity utilization rate, profit, daily production, weekly maintenance volume, and weekly production of PVC production enterprises using calcium carbide and ethylene methods [39][41] - **Demand Trend**: Analyzes the daily sales volume of traders, weekly pre - sales volume, production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, and operating rates of different downstream products of PVC, as well as the relationship between PVC demand and real estate investment, social financing scale, and infrastructure investment [43][45][47][49][52][53][55][56] - **Inventory**: Analyzes the exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide factory inventory, ethylene factory inventory, social inventory, and inventory days of production enterprises [57] - **Ethylene Method - Related Factors**: Analyzes the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, and price differences related to the ethylene method [59] - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Presents the monthly supply - demand trends of PVC, including export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and import data for 2024 and 2025 [62]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The refinery's recent production scheduling has been reduced, alleviating supply pressure. Although the peak season stimulates demand recovery, the overall demand falls short of expectations and remains sluggish. Inventory levels remain unchanged. With the strengthening of crude oil, cost support has strengthened in the short - term. It is expected that the futures market will fluctuate within a narrow range in the short - term, with asphalt 2511 fluctuating between 3530 - 3570 [10]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply Side**: In August 2025, the total planned production volume of domestic asphalt was 2.413 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. This week, the utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt sample production capacity was 31.3998%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.44 percentage points. The shipment volume of national sample enterprises was 263,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.17%. The sample enterprise output was 524,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.37%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment was 682,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.25%. Refineries have reduced production recently, reducing supply pressure, but supply pressure may increase next week [8]. - **Demand Side**: The construction rate of heavy - traffic asphalt was 29.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.05 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The construction rate of building asphalt was 18.2%, unchanged month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The construction rate of modified asphalt was 17.1358%, a month - on - month increase of 0.15 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The construction rate of road - modified asphalt was 28.33%, unchanged month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The construction rate of waterproofing membranes was 33.86%, a month - on - month increase of 3.26 percentage points, lower than the historical average. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [8]. - **Cost Side**: The daily profit from asphalt processing was - 629.11 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 5.60%. The weekly profit from delayed coking at Shandong local refineries was 740.6729 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 6.05%. The loss from asphalt processing increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreased. With the strengthening of crude oil, it is expected that the support will strengthen in the short - term [9]. - **Expected Outlook**: The refinery's recent production reduction has eased supply pressure. The overall demand recovery in the peak season is lower than expected and remains sluggish. Inventory remains unchanged. With the strengthening of crude oil, cost support has strengthened in the short - term. It is expected that the futures market will fluctuate within a narrow range in the short - term, with asphalt 2511 fluctuating between 3530 - 3570 [10]. - **Lido Factors**: The relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support [13]. - **Negative Factors**: There is insufficient demand for high - priced goods, and overall demand is declining. The expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States is intensifying [14]. - **Main Logic**: On the supply side, supply pressure remains high; on the demand side, the recovery is weak [15]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Basis**: On September 3, 2025, the spot price in Shandong was 3,550 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 10 yuan/ton, with the spot price at a premium to the futures price. The evaluation is neutral [11]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory was 1.27 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.70%. Factory inventory was 674,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.86%. The inventory of diluted asphalt at ports was 190,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 26.67%. Social inventory has been continuously decreasing, factory inventory has been continuously decreasing, and port inventory has been continuously increasing. The evaluation is neutral [11]. - **Futures Market**: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed above MA20. The evaluation is bullish [11]. - **Main Positions**: The main positions are net long, with a decrease in long positions. The evaluation is bullish [11].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 指标体系 沪锌: 1、基本面：外媒6月18日消息， 世界金属统计局( WBMS )公布的最新数据 报告显示，2025年4月, 全球锌板产量为115.3万吨，消费量为113.02万吨, 供应过剩2.27万吨。1-4月，全球锌板产量为445.14万吨,消费量为450.79 万吨，供应短缺5.65万吨。4月,全球锌板产量为107.22万吨。1-4月，全球 锌矿产量为404.06万吨；偏多。 2、基差：现货22270，基差-15；中性。 3、库存：9月3日LME锌库存较上日减少375吨至55225吨，9月3日上期所锌 库存仓单较上日增加1992吨至40947吨；中性。 4、盘面：昨日沪锌震荡下跌走势，收20日均线之下,20日均线向下；偏空。 5、主力持仓：主力净多头，多减；偏多。 6、预期：LME库存仓单继续减少；上期所仓单保持高位；沪锌ZN2510：震 荡盘整。 沪锌期货早报-20 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PVC期货早报 2025年9月3日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 供给端来看，据隆众统计，2025年7月PVC产量为200.461万吨，环比增加0.67%；本周样本企业产能利 用率为76.02%，环比减少0.02个百分点；电石法企业产量33.0135万吨，环比增加0.57%,乙烯法企业产 量12.516万吨，环比减少8.34%；本周供给压力有所减少；下周预计检修有所减少，预计排产少量增加 需求端来看，下游整体开工率为42.6%，环比减少0.10个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游型材开工率 为42.6%，环比增加.95个百分点，高于历史平均水平；下游管材开工率为33.61%，环比持平，低于历 史平均水平；下游薄膜开工率为70.77%，环 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - **Coking Coal**: The supply has decreased significantly due to strict safety and environmental inspections in Shanxi before major events. The market sentiment has weakened, with a strong atmosphere of price cuts. The total sample inventory has decreased by 28.1 tons compared to last week. Considering factors such as the decline in steel prices, the narrowing of steel mill profits, and the start of blast furnace production restrictions in Tangshan, it is expected that the price of coking coal will remain stable in the short term [3]. - **Coke**: Affected by the parade, the production of coking enterprises in some areas is still restricted, and the supply is at a low level. As the raw material arrival situation of downstream steel mills has improved, the procurement rhythm of coke has slowed down, and the inventory of some coking enterprises has slightly increased. It is expected that the supply will increase after the parade, and the overall supply - demand of coke will tend to be loose, with the price remaining stable in the short term [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs **Daily Views** - **Coking Coal** - **Fundamentals**: Strict safety and environmental inspections in Shanxi before major events have led to a significant reduction in supply. The market sentiment has weakened, with a strong atmosphere of price cuts, and the market is mostly in a wait - and - see state [3]. - **Basis**: The spot market price is 1170, with a basis of - 57.5, indicating that the spot is at a discount to the futures [3]. - **Inventory**: The total sample inventory is 1890.7 tons, a decrease of 28.1 tons compared to last week [3]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is below the 20 - day moving average [4]. - **Main Position**: The main net position of coking coal is short, and the short position has decreased [4]. - **Expectation**: The decline in steel prices and the narrowing of steel mill profits have led to a low acceptance of high - priced coal by coking and steel enterprises. With the start of blast furnace production restrictions in Tangshan, it is expected that the price of coking coal will remain stable in the short term [3]. - **Coke** - **Fundamentals**: Affected by the parade, the production of coking enterprises in some areas is restricted, and the supply is at a low level. The procurement rhythm of downstream steel mills has slowed down, and the inventory of some coking enterprises has slightly increased [8]. - **Basis**: The spot market price is 1600, with a basis of 3.5, indicating that the spot is at a premium to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: The total sample inventory is 864.2 tons, a decrease of 17.9 tons compared to last week [8]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is below the 20 - day moving average [8]. - **Main Position**: The main net position of coke is short, and the short position has increased [8]. - **Expectation**: After the parade, the supply is expected to increase, and the overall supply - demand of coke will tend to be loose, with the price remaining stable in the short term [8]. **Factors Affecting Coking Coal** - **Positive Factors**: The increase in hot metal production and the difficulty in increasing supply [6]. - **Negative Factors**: The slowdown in the procurement of raw coal by coking and steel enterprises and the weakness of steel prices [6]. **Factors Affecting Coke** - **Positive Factors**: The increase in hot metal production and the synchronous increase in blast furnace operating rate [10]. - **Negative Factors**: The squeeze on the profit space of steel mills and the partial overdraft of replenishment demand [10]. **Inventory** - **Port Inventory**: The coking coal port inventory is 282.1 tons, a decrease of 10.2 tons compared to last week; the coke port inventory is 215.1 tons, an increase of 17 tons compared to last week [22]. - **Independent Coking Enterprise Inventory**: The coking coal inventory of independent coking enterprises is 844.1 tons, an increase of 2.9 tons compared to last week; the coke inventory is 46.5 tons, a decrease of 3.6 tons compared to last week [27]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: The coking coal inventory of steel mills is 803.8 tons, an increase of 4.3 tons compared to last week; the coke inventory is 626.7 tons, a decrease of 13.3 tons compared to last week [32]. **Other Data** - **Coking Oven Capacity Utilization**: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises nationwide is 74.48% [45]. - **Average Profit per Ton of Coke**: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 25 yuan [49].

Report Overview - Report Date: September 3, 2025 - Report Type: Steel Futures Morning Report - Covered Products: Rebar (Threaded Steel) and Hot-Rolled Coil 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - **Rebar**: Overall, the market is complex with mixed signals. The demand is weak, the real - estate industry is in a downward cycle, but there are factors like low production and inventory, and domestic capacity - reduction expectations. It is recommended to approach with a high - level oscillation mindset [2][3] - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The supply - demand situation has weakened, exports are blocked, but there are also positive factors such as acceptable demand, spot premium, and domestic capacity - reduction expectations. A high - level oscillation approach is also suggested [6][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Rebar Fundamental Analysis - **Supply - Demand**: Demand shows no improvement, downstream real - estate industry is in a downward cycle, and traders' purchasing willingness is low. The inventory is at a low level with a slight decrease [2] - **Basis**: The spot price of rebar is 3240, and the basis is 123, indicating a bullish signal [2] - **Inventory**: The inventory in 35 major cities across the country is 4.5377 million tons, with both a month - on - month and year - on - year increase, considered neutral [2] - **Disk**: The price is below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward, a bearish sign [2] - **Main Position**: The net position of the main rebar contract is short, and the short position is decreasing [2] - **Expectation**: The real - estate market remains weak, future demand will cool down, and domestic capacity - reduction plans will impact the market. A high - level oscillation mindset should be adopted [2] Factors - **Positive**: Low production and inventory, spot premium, and domestic capacity - reduction expectations [3] - **Negative**: The downward cycle of the downstream real - estate industry continues, and terminal demand is weaker than the same period [3] Hot - Rolled Coil Fundamental Analysis - **Supply - Demand**: Both supply and demand have weakened, inventory continues to decrease, exports are blocked, and domestic policies may take effect, considered neutral [6] - **Basis**: The spot price of hot - rolled coil is 3350, and the basis is 52, a bullish signal [6] - **Inventory**: The inventory in 33 major cities across the country is 2.8578 million tons, with a month - on - month increase and a year - on - year decrease, considered neutral [6] - **Disk**: The price is below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward, a bearish sign [6] - **Main Position**: The net position of the main hot - rolled coil contract is short, and the short position is increasing [6] - **Expectation**: The market supply - demand has weakened, exports are blocked, and domestic capacity - reduction plans will impact the market. A high - level oscillation mindset should be adopted [6] Factors - **Positive**: Acceptable demand, spot premium, and domestic capacity - reduction expectations [7] - **Negative**: Downstream demand enters the seasonal off - season, and the outlook is pessimistic [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply side: In August 2025, the total planned production volume of domestic asphalt was 2413,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt decreased by 1.44 percentage points month - on - month, the output of sample enterprises decreased by 4.37% month - on - month, and the estimated device maintenance volume increased by 5.25% month - on - month. Refineries reduced production this week to ease supply pressure, but supply pressure may increase next week [8]. - Demand side: The current demand is below the historical average level. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 decreased by 0.05 percentage points month - on - month, the construction asphalt开工率 remained flat, the modified asphalt开工率 increased by 0.15 percentage points month - on - month, the road - modified asphalt开工率 remained flat, and the waterproofing membrane开工率 increased by 3.26 percentage points month - on - month [8]. - Cost side: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 629.11 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 5.60%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 740.6729 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 6.05%. The asphalt processing loss increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreased. Crude oil weakened, and it is expected that the support will weaken in the short term [9]. - Expectation: The refineries have recently reduced production to ease supply pressure. The overall demand recovery is less than expected and sluggish; the inventory remains flat; crude oil weakens, and the cost support weakens in the short term. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2511 fluctuating in the range of 3519 - 3561 [10]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Supply - related data**: In August 2025, the total planned production volume of domestic asphalt was 2413,000 tons. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate was 31.3998%, the sample enterprise output was 524,000 tons, and the estimated device maintenance volume was 682,000 tons [8]. - **Demand - related data**: The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 was 29.3%, the construction asphalt开工率 was 18.2%, the modified asphalt开工率 was 17.1358%, the road - modified asphalt开工率 was 28.33%, and the waterproofing membrane开工率 was 33.86% [8]. - **Cost - related data**: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 629.11 yuan/ton, and the weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 740.6729 yuan/ton [9]. - **Leverage factors**: The relatively high - level crude oil cost provides some support, while the lack of demand for high - price goods and the overall downward demand, along with the strengthened expectation of the European and American economic recession, are negative factors [13][14]. - **Main logic**: The supply pressure remains high, and the demand recovery is weak [15]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Base - related data**: On September 1st, the spot price in Shandong was 3510 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was - 12 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [11]. - **Inventory - related data**: The social inventory was 1270,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.70%; the in - plant inventory was 674,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.86%; the port diluted asphalt inventory was 190,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 26.67% [11]. - **Disk - related data**: The MA20 was downward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed above the MA20 [11]. - **Main position - related data**: The main position was net long, with a decrease in long positions [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating of the PVC industry in the report is bearish [11] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply pressure of PVC is strong, and the domestic demand recovery is sluggish. The market is affected by multiple factors, with both positive and negative aspects coexisting. The current demand may continue to be weak, and the overall inventory is at a high level. The PVC2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4861 - 4927 [13][14][9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Overall Rating**: Bearish [11] - **Positive Factors**: Supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits [13] - **Negative Factors**: Overall supply pressure rebound, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand [13] - **Main Logic**: The overall supply pressure is strong, and the domestic demand recovery is not smooth [14] 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data 3.2.1 Supply Side - In July 2025, PVC production was 2.00461 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.67%. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 76.02%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.02 percentage points. Calcium carbide method enterprise production was 330,135 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.57%, and ethylene method enterprise production was 125,160 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.34%. The supply pressure decreased this week, and it is expected that maintenance will decrease next week, with a small increase in scheduled production [7] 3.2.2 Demand Side - The overall downstream start - up rate was 42.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.10 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream profile start - up rate was 42.6%, a month - on - month increase of 0.95 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The downstream pipe start - up rate was 33.61%, unchanged from the previous month, lower than the historical average. The downstream film start - up rate was 70.77%, unchanged from the previous month, higher than the historical average. The downstream paste resin start - up rate was 69.26%, a month - on - month decrease of 8.27 percentage points, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to rise, and domestic PVC export prices are competitive. The current demand may continue to be weak [7] 3.2.3 Cost Side - The profit of the calcium carbide method was - 399.2026 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase in losses of 79.20%, lower than the historical average. The profit of the ethylene method was - 627.9512 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase in losses of 6.10%, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2697.05 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month profit decrease of 0.00%, lower than the historical average. Scheduled production may be under pressure [8] 3.2.4 Basis - On September 1st, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4760 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 134 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. It is bearish [9] 3.2.5 Inventory - The in - factory inventory was 312,148 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.00%. The calcium carbide method factory inventory was 242,148 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.07%. The ethylene method factory inventory was 70,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.54%. The social inventory was 521,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.73%. The inventory days of production enterprises in stock were 5.2 days, a month - on - month increase of 1.96% [9] 3.2.6 Disk - The MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed below the MA20. It is bearish [9] 3.2.7 Main Position - The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing. It is bearish [9] 3.2.8 Expectation - The cost of the calcium carbide method and the ethylene method is weakening, and the overall cost is weakening. The supply pressure decreased this week, and it is expected that maintenance will decrease next week, with an increase in scheduled production. The overall inventory is at a high level, and the current demand may continue to be weak. Continuously monitor macro - policies and export dynamics. The PVC2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4861 - 4927 [9]