着力扩大有效投资 党的二十届四中全会通过的《建议》将扩大有效投资列为"建设强大国内市场，加快构建新发展格局"的重点任务之一，并 作出明确部署。要认真学习贯彻全会精神，扎实做好"十五五"时期扩大有效投资各项工作，为构建新发展格局、推动高质 量发展作出应有贡献。 一、深入学习领会习近平总书记关于扩大有效投资的重要论述和全会部署 习近平总书记高度重视扩大有效投资工作，作出一系列重要论述，在就《建议》所作的说明中强调，"十五五"时期要坚 持"投资于物和投资于人紧密结合，大力提振消费，扩大有效投资"，这为做好投资工作指明了方向，提供了根本遵循。我 们要深入学习领会习近平总书记重要论述和全会部署，自觉对标对表，确保投资工作方向不偏、重心不移。 充分发挥投资关键作用，坚定不移扩大有效投资。 习近平总书记指出，"要优化政策举措，充分发挥消费的基础作用和投资 的关键作用""增强消费对经济发展的基础性作用和投资对优化供给结构的关键作用"。《建议》提出，保持投资合理增长， 实施一批重大标志性工程项目，增强市场主导的有效投资增长动力。投资既是当前的需求，也是未来的供给。从需求看， 增强内需拉动经济增长的主动力作用、建设强大国内市场， ...

我国固定资产投资（不含农户）从2012年的23万亿元增长到2024年的51.4万亿元；2013—2024年，资本 形成总额对经济增长的年均贡献率达38.1%。从结构看，制造业投资占比总体稳定，高技术产业投资 2018—2024年年均增长12.1%，绿色能源等领域投资高速增长，投资结构持续优化。 其中，"十四五"时期政府投资规模也在不断壮大。近3.4万亿元中央预算内投资，重点支持补短板、调 结构、惠民生的公共领域项目建设。发行约16万亿元地方政府专项债券用于投资建设，支持地方重点项 目建设。2024—2025年发行1.5万亿元超长期特别国债，支持国家重大战略实施和重点领域安全能力建 设（"两重"建设）。2023年增发国债1万亿元，支持华北等地区加快灾后恢复重建，提升我国防灾减灾 救灾能力。2022年、2025年分别投放7399亿元政策性开发性金融工具、5000亿元新型政策性金融工具， 有力补充重大项目资本金。 （资料图） 国家发展改革委投资司表示，2025年以来投资下行压力加大，特别是从6月开始，投资增速快速回落，1 —10月同比下降1.7%。这既是受一些地方政府化债压力较大、地方投资循环不畅等当期因素影响，也 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The State Council supports private investment projects to issue infrastructure REITs to broaden the financing channels for private enterprises. The "Measures" put forward 13 measures to stimulate private investment vitality and development, focusing on direct financing through equity and REITs [2][3]. - The average issuance costs of policy - backed mortgage loans and REIT - like products are relatively high, while those of personal auto loans are relatively low [5]. - In October 2025, the issuance of ABS decreased due to holiday factors, and the secondary stratification ratio of non - performing loan products remained high [6]. - The trading activity of ABS products in the secondary market declined, with significant differences in trading activity among different products [22]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 REITs Policy Support - The "Measures" encourage private capital to participate in infrastructure projects and support the listing of high - tech enterprises and the issuance of infrastructure REITs by private investment projects to expand financing sources [2][3]. - The NDRC will promote the expansion of infrastructure REITs to new fields. Currently, private investment projects in infrastructure REITs have less than 20% in quantity and scale, indicating significant development potential [4]. 3.2 Market Issuance Situation - **Overall Market**: In October 2025, 164 asset - securitized products were issued, with a total scale of 181.083 billion yuan, a 33% decrease from the previous period. Non - performing loan products had a high secondary stratification ratio [6]. - **Bank - to - Bank Market**: 10 products were issued, with a scale of 34.343 billion yuan. The average issuance cost of non - performing loan products was the highest, while that of personal auto loans and micro - enterprise loans was relatively low [10][11]. - **Trading Association ABN**: 49 products were issued, with a scale of 51.653 billion yuan, a 23% decrease from the previous month. The coupon rates of priority products with disclosed credit ratings ranged from 1.65% to 3.60% [17]. - **Exchange ABS**: 105 products were issued, with a scale of 95.087 billion yuan, a 42% decrease from the previous month. The credit ratings of priority products included AAAsf and AA + sf, and the coupon rates ranged from 1.65% to 3.95% [18]. 3.3 Secondary Market Situation - **Bank - to - Bank Market**: The trading volume was 1.1445 billion yuan, with a significant decline in trading activity. Personal auto loan products had the highest trading volume [23]. - **Trading Association ABN**: The trading volume was 4.6139 billion yuan, a further decrease. Small - scale loans and enterprise accounts receivable were relatively actively traded [26]. - **Exchange ABS**: The trading volume was 8.1 billion yuan, a decrease from the previous month. The Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges had trading volumes of 6.3879 billion yuan and 1.7121 billion yuan respectively [27].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of expanding effective investment as a key task for building a strong domestic market and accelerating the construction of a new development pattern, as outlined in the proposals from the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China [1] Group 1: Understanding Xi Jinping's Important Statements - Xi Jinping highlights the need to combine investment in physical assets and human resources, aiming to boost consumption and expand effective investment during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [2] - The proposals stress maintaining reasonable growth in investment and implementing significant landmark projects to enhance the driving force of effective investment [2] - Investment is viewed as both current demand and future supply, essential for building a modern industrial system and enhancing national competitiveness [2] Group 2: Improving Investment Efficiency - The focus is on achieving returns from investments, profits for enterprises, income for employees, and tax revenue for the government [3] - The proposals call for optimizing investment structures and enhancing the quality of investment projects to avoid wasteful spending [3] - There is a need for innovative investment management to improve the comprehensive benefits of investments across economic, social, ecological, and safety dimensions [3] Group 3: Enhancing Policy Effectiveness - Government investment is seen as a crucial tool for guiding and stimulating overall social investment [4] - The proposals advocate for optimizing government investment structures and encouraging private capital participation in major projects [4] - The article mentions the issuance of long-term special bonds to support significant strategic implementations and key areas [4] Group 4: Achievements in Expanding Effective Investment - Since the 18th National Congress, fixed asset investment in China has grown from 23 trillion yuan in 2012 to 51.4 trillion yuan in 2024, with an average annual contribution rate of 38.1% from capital formation to economic growth from 2013 to 2024 [6] - The article notes that high-tech industry investments have seen an average annual growth of 12.1% from 2018 to 2024, indicating a continuous optimization of investment structure [6] Group 5: Strategies for the 15th Five-Year Plan - The article outlines the need to maintain reasonable investment growth while enhancing the effectiveness of investments [11] - It emphasizes the importance of expanding investment in both physical and human resources, and fostering a conducive environment for private investment [11] - The proposals highlight the necessity of optimizing investment structures and focusing on new growth drivers while stabilizing traditional sectors [12] Group 6: Government Investment Management - The article stresses the importance of maintaining a reasonable level of government investment and optimizing its structure [13] - It calls for a high-quality approach to major project construction and emphasizes the need for effective management throughout the investment lifecycle [13] - The proposals suggest enhancing the role of government investment in supporting public welfare and long-term projects [13] Group 7: Promoting Private Investment - The article discusses measures to enhance private investment, including expanding access and addressing existing barriers [14] - It highlights the importance of involving private enterprises in significant projects and promoting public-private partnerships (PPP) [14] - The establishment of real estate investment trusts (REITs) in infrastructure is mentioned as a way to support private investment [14] Group 8: Reforming Investment Approval Processes - The article emphasizes the need for reforming investment approval systems to stimulate investment activity and prevent ineffective investments [15] - It calls for optimizing the approval process and ensuring that government investment projects are managed effectively [15] - The proposals include enhancing the evaluation and performance assessment of investment decisions [15]

经济观察网国家发展改革委固定资产投资司发表文章《着力扩大有效投资》，文章指出，进一步促进民 间投资发展。从扩大准入、打通堵点、强化保障等方面着力破解民间投资发展难题，促进民间投资高质 量发展。完善民营企业参与重大项目建设长效机制，积极支持民营企业参与具有一定收益的铁路、核 电、水电等重点领域项目建设。滚动接续向民间资本推介优质项目，加强对民间投资项目的要素和融资 支持。鼓励支持民营企业参与政府和社会资本合作(PPP)新机制项目建设实施。持续推动基础设施领域 不动产投资信托基金(REITs)扩围扩容，支持更多符合条件的民间投资项目发行上市。加大中央预算内 投资等对符合条件的民间投资项目支持力度，更好发挥政府投资基金对民间投资的引导带动作用。 ...

明年要着眼惠民生增后劲，推动投资止跌回稳。当前投资出现下滑，但我国在科技创新、产业升级、基 础设施、改善民生等方面还有不少短板弱项。要把投资于物和投资于人相结合，统筹提振消费和扩大投 资，加快建设停车场、充电桩、旅游公路等消费基础设施，提高养老、托育、医疗等民生类投资比重， 高质量推进城市更新，着力扩大有效投资。要有效发挥政府投资带动作用，用好中央预算内投资、超长 期特别国债、地方政府专项债券等资金，优化实施"两重"项目，靠前实施具备条件的"十五五"重大项 目，发挥重大工程牵引带动作用。要激发民间投资活力，落实好进一步促进民间投资发展的若干措施， 支持民营企业参与铁路、核电等领域重大项目，引导民间投资向高技术、服务业等新赛道拓展，以更实 举措增强民间投资信心。 （文章来源：新华社） 针对内需发展现状如何？提振消费、扩大投资的空间和动力在哪里？中央财办有关负责同志表示，扩大 内需是明年排在首位的重点任务。今年我国内需总体保持稳健，前三季度内需对经济增长贡献率达到 71%。提振消费政策成效明显，扩大有效投资扎实推进。我们也注意到，近几个月消费和投资增速有所 放缓，需要持续加力扩内需。 明年要把握消费的结构性变化， ...

人民财讯12月16日电，中共国家发展和改革委员会党组在《求是》杂志发表文章《坚定实施扩大内需战 略》，文章指出，积极拓展有效投资空间。首先，发挥好政府投资作用。优化政府投资结构，提高民生 类政府投资比重，高质量推进"两重"建设。加强"硬投资"和"软建设"系统集成，着力提升政府投资效 益。结合国家发展需要，在新型能源体系、重大水利工程、国家重大科技基础设施等领域，实施一批重 大标志性工程。加强项目储备论证，主动谋划储备更多发展所需、地方所能、群众所盼的高质量项目。 再者，进一步促进民间投资发展。完善民营企业参与重大项目建设长效机制，发挥政府投资基金引导带 动作用，加强民间投资项目资金等各类要素协同保障，激发民间投资活力、提高民间投资比重。持续推 动政府和社会资本合作(PPP)新机制规范实施，增强市场主导的有效投资增长动力。 ...

Group 1: Central Economic Work Conference Focus - The 2025 Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes the need for financial institutions to support key areas such as expanding domestic demand, technological innovation, and small and micro enterprises [1] - The conference outlines a clear focus for 2026 financial work on serving the real economy, risk prevention, supporting technological innovation, and deepening reforms [1] Group 2: Challenges in Technological Innovation Financing - Technological innovation is crucial for transforming economic growth from quantity to quality, but it faces high risks, long cycles, and uncertain returns [2] - Traditional capital struggles to balance risk and return due to the long-term funding needs and the structural mismatch between traditional financing models and the growth patterns of tech companies [2] Group 3: Financial Service Innovation for Technology - The conference calls for innovative financial services that align closely with technological needs, focusing on product supply, service boundaries, and evaluation systems [3] - A comprehensive product matrix covering all stages of technological innovation is necessary to address the differing financing needs throughout the innovation process [3] - Financial products should extend beyond just tech projects to include diverse innovation entities, creating a service framework that encompasses enterprises, talent, and research institutions [3] Group 4: Revitalizing Private Investment - Private investment is a key indicator of macroeconomic activity and is essential for job stability and economic growth, yet it faces multiple constraints [4] - The conference highlights the importance of new policy financial tools to stimulate private investment and reduce initial capital burdens [4][5] Group 5: Effectiveness of New Policy Financial Tools - New policy financial tools have shown effectiveness in addressing private investment challenges, with significant funding allocated to various projects [5] - The integration of policy credit and leverage effects is expected to mobilize substantial total investments, significantly lowering the risk exposure for private capital [5][6] Group 6: Challenges Facing Small and Medium Financial Institutions - Small and medium financial institutions are crucial for serving local economies and small enterprises but face significant operational challenges [7] - The conference indicates a need for these institutions to undergo a process of reduction and quality improvement, leading to market exits and mergers [7][8] Group 7: Progress in Mergers and Restructuring - The pace of mergers and restructuring among small financial institutions has accelerated, with a notable number of banks merging or dissolving [8] - The restructuring aims to optimize the financial ecosystem and enhance service quality to better support the local real economy [8]

期货研究院 格林大华期货研究院专题报告 宏观经济 2025年12月15日 宏观国债研究员：刘洋 从业资格证号： F3063825 交易咨询证号： Z0016580 联系方式： liuyang18036@greend h.com 格林大华期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1288号 成文时间：2025年12月15日星期一 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 11月消费投资低于预期 摘要 11月固定资产投资增速和社零增长均低于市场预期。11出口增速 超市场预期。11月份，规模以上工业增加值同比增长低于市场预期， 11月服务业生产指数同比增速较10月回落0.4个百分点。11月国内房 地产销量同比和房价继续下行，12月上旬的数据也表现如此。截至今 年10月底，5000亿元新型政策性金融工具已全部完成投放，11月的 投资数据未表现出明显改观。中美在10月末元首会晤之后，不断拉长 合作清单、压缩问题清单，相对稳定的国际环境有利于中国出口。出 口信心稳定则有利民间投资增长。 1-11月份，全国固定资产投资同比下降2.6%，市场预期下降2.2 %，1-10月份为同比下降1.7%。分类来看，1-11月份广义基建投 ...

经济观察网 国家统计局新闻发言人、总经济师、国民经济综合统计司司长付凌晖在国新办发布会上表 示，从未来看，我国投资潜力和空间依然巨大，推动新质生产力发展，促进城乡区域协调发展，强化教 育、医疗、住房、基本公共服务等民生保障，满足人民美好生活需要，都需要持续加大投入。对于投资 下降，近期相关部门也推出了不少促进投资增长的措施，尤其是注重提高投资效益、注重激发民间投资 的活力，相信相关政策逐步显效，有利于投资稳步回升。下阶段，要继续优化投资结构，持续改善投资 环境，发挥政府投资导向作用，进一步激发民间投资活力，发挥好投资扩内需、优供给、惠民生的关键 作用，更好促进经济高质量发展。 经济观察网 国家统计局新闻发言人、总经济师、国民经济综合统计司司长付凌晖在国新办发布会上表 示，从未来看，我国投资潜力和空间依然巨大，推动新质生产力发展，促进城乡区域协调发展，强化教 育、医疗、住房、基本公共服务等民生保障，满足人民美好生活需要，都需要持续加大投入。对于投资 下降，近期相关部门也推出了不少促进投资增长的措施，尤其是注重提高投资效益、注重激发民间投资 的活力，相信相关政策逐步显效，有利于投资稳步回升。下阶段，要继续优化投资 ...