Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government continues to support automotive consumption policies despite the adjustment of the new energy vehicle purchase tax, signaling a strong commitment to boosting domestic demand and the automotive market [1] Group 1: Policy Implementation - The new "two new" policy will be implemented in 2026, with specific guidelines for the vehicle trade-in subsidy released promptly to address market concerns and avoid policy gaps [1] - The automotive trade-in program is expected to support over 11.5 million vehicles and generate more than 1.6 trillion yuan in new car sales by 2025 [1] Group 2: Subsidy Expansion - The trade-in subsidy has been expanded to include older gasoline and diesel vehicles, allowing more consumers to benefit from the program [2] - The new subsidy structure links the amount to the sales price of new vehicles, enhancing fairness and precision in the policy, while promoting higher-end vehicle consumption [2][3] Group 3: Standardization and Optimization - A unified national standard for trade-in subsidies will be established, with specific percentages for different vehicle types, such as 8% for new energy vehicles and 6% for gasoline vehicles [3] - The policy encourages the purchase of new energy vehicles and low-emission gasoline vehicles, with nearly 60% of trade-ins expected to be new energy vehicles by 2025 [3] Group 4: Market Dynamics - The automotive consumption landscape in China is shifting from first-time purchases to trade-ins, with an estimated 12 million trade-in applications expected by 2026 [4] - The increasing focus on intelligent features in new energy vehicles is expected to enhance consumer experience and stimulate market activity [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the automotive industry, indicating an expectation that the industry index will outperform the market index by more than 10% over the next six months [2][38]. Core Insights - The automotive sector has shown a recent upward trend, with the Shenwan Automotive Index rising by 3.52% over the past two weeks, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 1.47 percentage points [4][11]. - The report highlights the implementation of a new vehicle scrappage and replacement policy for 2026, which includes subsidies for purchasing new energy vehicles and fuel-efficient cars, aimed at boosting consumer confidence and sales [33][34]. - The report notes a significant decline in retail sales of passenger vehicles in December 2025, with a year-on-year decrease of 13%, indicating a cautious market sentiment as consumers await new subsidy policies [21][34]. Summary by Sections Automotive Industry Trends and Valuation Review - As of January 8, 2026, the Shenwan Automotive Index has increased by 1.49% since the beginning of the year, ranking 23rd among 31 industries [11][12]. - The automotive sub-sectors have also experienced growth, with the automotive parts sector rising by 4.66% and the motorcycle and other sectors increasing by 2.44% [13][14]. Industry Data Tracking - Raw material prices have seen increases, with steel prices up by 0.70%, aluminum by 6.95%, and lithium carbonate by 16.88% as of January 8, 2026 [18][19]. Industry News - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has initiated testing and safety evaluations for smart connected vehicles equipped with autonomous driving features [20]. - The Ministry of Commerce projects that 17.67 million vehicles will be scrapped from 2024 to 2025, with an annual growth rate of 45.8% [22]. Corporate News - Xiaomi's new electric vehicle, the SU7, is expected to launch in April 2026 [26]. - Desay SV plans to issue H-shares and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to enhance its international presence [28]. - Hesai Technology has been selected by NVIDIA as a lidar partner for its autonomous driving platform [30]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies like BYD and Seres, which are expanding their overseas markets and benefiting from the increasing penetration of smart driving technologies [33][35].

Core Viewpoint - The automotive sector is experiencing a downturn, with several companies' stock prices declining due to intensified promotional activities in response to the impact of new energy vehicle purchase tax changes [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Beijing Automotive (01958) shares fell by 3.13% to HKD 1.86 [1] - Li Auto-W (02015) shares decreased by 2.25% to HKD 65.3 [1] - GAC Group (02238) shares dropped by 1.99% to HKD 3.95 [1] - Great Wall Motors (02333) shares declined by 1.23% to HKD 14.47 [1] Group 2: Market Response - Multiple automakers are launching price reduction promotions to counteract the effects of the new energy vehicle purchase tax [1] - Tesla China introduced a "7-year ultra-low interest" financing plan for Model 3/Y/Y L [1] - GAC Group announced promotional activities for its self-owned brands, including a limited-time purchase tax guarantee policy and additional subsidies for trade-ins or scrappage [1] Group 3: Industry Outlook - According to Dongfang Securities, consumer sentiment is cautious due to the suspension of subsidies in some provinces and cities, leading to a decline in retail sales of passenger vehicles in November and December 2025 [1] - The first batch of 62.5 billion yuan for consumer goods replacement subsidies has been allocated, suggesting a potential marginal improvement in vehicle purchase demand in the first quarter of 2026 [1] - Guotai Junan Securities noted that the reduction of subsidies for mid-to-high price range new energy vehicles and fuel vehicles has a positive impact on the automotive industry's profitability and internal competition [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the promotion of green consumption in China, particularly in the automotive sector [1] Group 2 - From 2024 to 2025, China aims to achieve 18.3 million vehicle trade-ins, with nearly 60% being new energy vehicles [1] - The annual average growth rate for scrapped vehicle recycling is projected at 45.8%, with a total of 17.673 million vehicles recycled [1] - The second-hand vehicle transaction volume is expected to reach 39.686 million units [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the Chinese automotive market is expected to maintain stable retail volumes in 2025, with a projected total of 23.55 million passenger vehicles sold, which is roughly the same as in 2024 [1][2] - The automotive dealer inventory warning index for December 2025 is reported at 57.7%, showing a year-on-year increase of 7.5 percentage points and a month-on-month increase of 2.1 percentage points, indicating a decline in industry prosperity [1] - A significant portion of dealers, nearly half, are expected to achieve a task completion rate of 90% or more for the entire year of 2025, with 15.3% exceeding their targets [1] Group 2 - The automotive consumption index for December 2025 is reported at 97.7, which is higher than the previous month, suggesting a potential "opening red" scenario for January 2026 due to pent-up demand from the end of year promotions and the upcoming Spring Festival [2] - The introduction of the new vehicle purchase tax policy, which reduces the tax from exemption to half starting in 2026, is expected to have a positive impact on December sales, although consumer hesitation remains due to policy changes [2][3] - The 2026 vehicle trade-in subsidy guidelines are expected to alleviate consumer hesitation and stimulate demand in early 2026, with a concentrated release of purchasing demand anticipated in January [3]

Core Viewpoint - The introduction of the "New National Subsidy" policy for 2026 has led to a surge in consumer interest and promotional activities among various automotive brands, aiming to stimulate sales in the electric vehicle market. Group 1: Consumer Behavior and Market Response - Many consumers are waiting for the "New National Subsidy" to finalize their vehicle purchases, as evidenced by increased foot traffic in showrooms during the New Year holiday [1] - Sales personnel report a significant rise in daily customer visits, with some stores exceeding a thousand visitors [1] - Automotive brands are launching various promotional strategies, including tax subsidies and cash discounts, to attract buyers [1] Group 2: Promotional Strategies by Automotive Brands - Several brands, including Zhiji and Extreme Kr, are offering vehicle purchase tax subsidies, with amounts reaching up to 12,000 yuan [2] - Zhiji's promotional campaign requires customers to place orders by January 3 to benefit from tax subsidies, highlighting the urgency of the offer [2] - Extreme Kr is also providing tax subsidies ranging from 7,000 to 12,000 yuan for its vehicles [2] Group 3: Price Adjustments and Market Strategy - BMW has announced price reductions for several models, with the i7M70L seeing a decrease of 301,000 yuan, while the iX1eDrive25L's price dropped by 71,900 yuan, reflecting a strategic response to market demand [4][5] - BMW emphasizes that these price adjustments are not a price war but a strategic move to align with customer needs and market dynamics [5] - The adjustments in pricing are expected to enhance the competitiveness of BMW's offerings in the market [5] Group 4: Policy Changes and Implications - The 2026 policy changes include a reduction in the vehicle purchase tax from full exemption to a 5% rate, which is expected to impact consumer purchasing behavior [6][7] - The new subsidy structure shifts from fixed amounts to a percentage of the vehicle price, maintaining the upper limits for subsidies [7] - The maximum subsidy for scrapping old vehicles is set at 20,000 yuan, while the maximum for replacing vehicles is 13,000 yuan [7] Group 5: Regional Implementation of Subsidy Policies - Various regions, including Jiangxi and Hebei, have begun implementing the new subsidy policies, allowing consumers to apply for up to 20,000 yuan in subsidies [9][10] - The central government has allocated 62.5 billion yuan for the first batch of subsidies, aimed at supporting the "old for new" vehicle replacement program [10] - The "old for new" policy has significantly contributed to the growth of the domestic automotive market, with over 1.15 million vehicles replaced in 2025 alone [10] Group 6: Future Market Outlook - The automotive industry is expected to experience positive growth in the first quarter of 2026, driven by the new policies and consumer incentives [11] - The government aims to promote green consumption and support the development of the automotive industry chain, including second-hand vehicles and new consumption models [11]

Core Viewpoint - The new "National Subsidy" policy for automobiles was released before the New Year holiday in 2026, prompting various car manufacturers to launch promotional policies, including vehicle purchase tax subsidies and "0% interest" financing options. The changes in the subsidy structure are expected to mitigate market shocks and stimulate car sales in 2026 [1][11]. Group 1: New Policy and Market Response - The new "National Subsidy" policy includes a reduction in the purchase tax for new energy vehicles from full exemption to 5% starting January 1, 2026 [11][12]. - Multiple car brands have introduced promotional policies in response to the new subsidy, with over ten brands offering limited-time promotions affecting more than 70 models [3][4]. - Sales personnel reported a significant increase in customer traffic, with some stores experiencing over a thousand visitors in a single day due to the holiday and new policy [3]. Group 2: Subsidy Details and Consumer Impact - The new subsidy structure shifts from fixed subsidies to percentage-based subsidies, maintaining the upper limits but reducing the effective subsidy for lower-priced models [11][13]. - Consumers can benefit from additional subsidies if they purchase vehicles during the promotional period, with some brands offering up to 12,000 yuan in tax subsidies [6][9]. - The total savings for consumers purchasing a new energy vehicle can reach nearly 52,000 yuan when combining the purchase tax reduction and the "old-for-new" subsidy [14]. Group 3: Regional Implementation and Market Growth - The new subsidy policy has already been implemented in several regions, including Jiangxi and Hebei, with local authorities actively promoting the "old-for-new" program [15][17]. - The "old-for-new" policy has been a significant driver of growth in the automotive market, with over 1.15 million vehicles exchanged under this program in 2025, contributing to over 1.6 trillion yuan in new car sales [18]. - Industry experts predict that the automotive market will experience positive growth in the first quarter of 2026, driven by the new policies [20].

Core Viewpoint - The introduction of the new "National Subsidy" policy for 2026 is expected to stimulate automobile consumption, particularly in the electric vehicle (EV) sector, as it offers various incentives and promotional activities from car manufacturers [16][20]. Group 1: Consumer Behavior and Demand - Many consumers, like Tan Rui, are waiting for the new "National Subsidy" to finalize their vehicle purchases, indicating a strong demand for new cars during the holiday season [1][2]. - Sales personnel report a significant increase in foot traffic at dealerships, with daily customer visits exceeding a thousand due to the holiday and the new subsidy announcements [2]. Group 2: Promotional Strategies by Car Manufacturers - Various car manufacturers have launched promotional strategies, including limited-time subsidies on vehicle purchase taxes, zero-interest financing, and cash discounts, in response to the new subsidy policy [2][3]. - Over ten automotive brands have introduced January promotional policies affecting more than 70 vehicle models [2]. Group 3: Tax Subsidy Details - Starting January 1, 2026, buyers of new energy vehicles will be required to pay a 5% vehicle purchase tax, but many brands are offering tax subsidies to offset this cost [3][6]. - For example, brands like Zhiji and Zeekr are providing tax subsidies ranging from 7,000 to 12,000 yuan for specific models during the promotional period [6][10]. Group 4: Price Adjustments and Market Strategy - BMW has announced price adjustments for several models, with significant reductions aimed at aligning with market demand rather than initiating a price war [11][14]. - The adjustments include substantial price cuts, such as a 301,000 yuan reduction for the i7 M70L, reflecting a strategic response to consumer preferences [11][14]. Group 5: Impact of New Subsidy Policies - The new "National Subsidy" policy includes changes to the vehicle purchase tax and the structure of subsidies, which are expected to mitigate the impact of tax adjustments on the market [16][17]. - The subsidy for scrapping old vehicles is capped at 20,000 yuan, while the replacement subsidy is limited to 13,000 yuan, with the overall subsidy structure shifting from fixed amounts to a percentage of the vehicle price [17][20]. Group 6: Regional Implementation of Subsidy Policies - Several regions, including Jiangxi and Hebei, have begun implementing the new subsidy policies, allowing consumers to apply for up to 20,000 yuan in subsidies for vehicle purchases [19]. - The central government has allocated 62.5 billion yuan for the first batch of subsidies, indicating strong support for the "old for new" vehicle replacement initiative [19][20]. Group 7: Market Outlook - The "old for new" vehicle replacement policy has been a significant driver of growth in the automotive market, with over 11.5 million vehicles replaced in 2025, generating substantial sales revenue [20]. - Industry experts predict that the new policies will lead to a positive growth trend in the automotive market in the first quarter of 2026 [20].

2026 年 01 月 05 日 两新补贴正式落地符合预期，看好 预期修复下的交易机会 看好 ——2025/12/29-2026/1/4 汽车周报 《补贴落地践行渐进，看好预期修复下的 交易机会——2025/12/22-2025/12/28 汽车周报》 2025/12/29 《L3 智驾车型许可发放，继续看好智能 化、中高端和二手车市场—— 2025/12/15-2025/12/19 汽车周报》 2025/12/22 证券分析师 戴文杰 A0230522100006 daiwj@swsresearch.com 联系人 朱傅哲 A0230524080008 zhufz@swsresearch.com 行 业 及 产 业 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 行 业 研 本期投资提示： 1.1 新势力月度销量更新 究 / 行 点 业 评 汽车 ⚫ 观点：两新补贴正式落地，计算方式由定额制转向按车价比例计算，结构导向更加清 晰，此前对行业 26 年总量的担心有望得到修复。看好中低端需求为主的比亚迪、吉 利，以及基本面α弹性显著的北汽、江淮 ...

消息面上，2026年汽车以旧换新补贴政策将延续。东方证券表示，2025年末由于部分省市出现补贴暂停 情况，消费者存在一定观望情绪，2025年11、12月乘用车零售销量均有所承压，2025年末冲量对2026年 的透支效应有限；2026年第一批625亿元支持消费品以旧换新资金已提前下达，预计1季度购车需求将有 望实现边际改善。 兴业证券发布研报称，与2025年政策相比，2026年政策最高补贴金额保持不变，补贴方式更为精准，增 加了车价作为限定条件，不同价位车型不再采用同样的补贴力度。2025年定额补贴撬动了大量低价车型 的销量，2026年补贴挂钩车价，在纯电动车领域中，高端车型补贴金额相对稳定，而低价电动车补贴金 额下降，或利好中高端汽车消费。 汽车股早盘走低，截至发稿，长城汽车（601633）(02333)跌6.42%，报14.15港元；小鹏汽车-W(09868) 跌4.04%，报77.1港元；理想汽车-W(02015)跌1.98%，报66.7港元。 ...