Core Viewpoint - The automotive market is expected to experience significant growth in 2025 due to strong incentives for vehicle trade-ins and tax benefits for new energy vehicles, with projections indicating a market size exceeding 1.8 trillion yuan [1] Group 1: Market Growth Projections - The scale of vehicle trade-ins in 2025 is anticipated to exceed 1.8 trillion yuan due to robust trade-in subsidies [1] - New energy vehicle purchase tax incentives of 10% are expected to increase sales by 22% compared to 2024, leading to over 200 billion yuan in tax reductions from sales exceeding 2 trillion yuan [1] - With nearly 400 billion yuan in tax exemptions and subsidies, the automotive market is projected to grow beyond expectations in 2025 [1] Group 2: Future Challenges - In 2026, the reduction of new energy vehicle purchase tax to 5% will result in over 100 billion yuan less in tax benefits, creating significant pressure on market growth [1] - The desire for a strong start to the 14th Five-Year Plan suggests that the end of 2025 should be stable, avoiding excessive depletion of next year's growth potential [1]

编前：今年以来，汽车产业在继续保持平稳增长的同时，各领域亮点纷呈，新能源汽车产销量进一步提升，和燃油车平分天下；促 消费政策更加精准，进一步激活汽车市场消费活力；智能汽车飞速发展，产业导向明确，智能化技术百花齐放……岁末将至，总结2025 年我国汽车产业的发展，围绕"两新"、服务消费以及人工智能＋等热点话题，《中国汽车报》推出"车经济新方位"栏目，集中展现今年以 来汽车领域的亮点成就。 今年以来，随着一系列政策的陆续落地，汽车消费展现出强劲的增长潜力，成为拉动消费、稳定经济的重要力量。这一年，从汽车以旧 换新、贷款支持到供需适配，从拉动新车市场到规范二手车流通，从产品刺激到精准施策、全链条激活，促汽车消费政策持续加码，推 动汽车消费连连攀升，步步扩增。"与往年不同的是，今年以来促汽车消费不仅政策接连出台，且持续向深层次推进，深入挖掘汽车消 费'蓝海'潜力。"中国汽车工业咨询委员会主任安庆衡在接受《中国汽车报》记者采访时表示，在政策"组合拳"的推动下，今年汽车消费 取得了有目共睹的好成绩，全年产销量有望再创新高。 在促汽车消费大环境日益向好的同时，个别区域的地方保护、二手车流通不畅、汽车改装存在"灰色地带"等发 ...

与往年年底车市翘尾走势不同的是，今年11月乘用车市场销量出现下滑。 12月8日，乘联分会公布的数据显示，11月，全国乘用车市场零售约222.5万辆，同比下降8.1%，环比下 降1.1%；今年以来累计零售约2148.3万辆，同比增长6.1%。 其中，比亚迪新能源车月度批发销量超47万辆，吉利汽车紧随其后为18.7万辆，奇瑞汽车、上汽通用五 菱、长安汽车三家新能源车月度批发销量在10万辆，特斯拉中国、零跑汽车、赛力斯则在5万~9万辆区 间。在11月新能源车月度批发销量突破1万辆的22家厂商中，上汽通用和广汽丰田两家合资车企位列其 中，月批发量均为1.06万辆。 在这一背景下，11月我国新能源乘用车销量达到132.1万辆，同比增长4.2%，在国内总体乘用车的零售 渗透率逼近60%，为59.3%，较去年同期提升7个百分点。其中，自主品牌中的新能源车渗透率为 79.6%，豪华车中的新能源车渗透率为38.8%，主流合资品牌中的新能源车渗透率为8%。 从广义乘用车零售销量排名来看，比亚迪、吉利汽车、一汽-大众居前三，但其中有两家销量出现同比 下滑。而销量排在第三至第十名中，仅有鸿蒙智行销量同比出现95.2%的大幅增长。 在 ...

与往年年底车市翘尾走势不同的是，今年11月国内乘用车市场销量同比出现下滑。 12月8日，乘联分会公布的最新数据显示，11月，全国乘用车市场零售销量约222.5万辆，同比下降8.1%，环比下降1.1%；今年以来累计零售销量约2148.3万 辆，同比增长6.1%。 "11月乘用车市场销量环比出现下降，是比较少见的。"乘联分会秘书长崔东树认为，今年上半年，我国乘用车市场销量实现了13%的较快增长，下半年车市 增长需要回到合理、稳定的状态。 图片来源：每经记者 张建 摄（资料图） 复盘来看，今年国内乘用车市场零售累计增速从1~2月增长1.2%，3~6月增长15%，7~9月增速徘徊在6%左右，10~11月回落到偏低状态，呈现四季度高基数 的减速特征，基本符合乘联分会在今年年初所判断的"前低中高后平"的走势。 乘联分会认为，今年调节车市增速的重要政策是"以旧换新"。截至10月22日，2025年汽车以旧换新补贴申请量突破千万辆，前11个月申请量已达1120万辆。 随着各地补贴大面积暂停，11月的日均补贴规模降到3万辆，增速调节效果明显。 新能源车月销1万辆以上车企增至22家 随着众多车企在新能源车路线上"多线并举"策略的实 ...

Domestic News - In the first 11 months, over 11.2 million vehicles were replaced through the old-for-new policy, contributing to a sales volume exceeding 2.5 trillion yuan, benefiting over 360 million people [2] - From January to October, China imported 404,000 complete vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 30%, with an import value of 20.25 billion USD, down 38.3% year-on-year [3] - GAC Group announced a year-end vehicle purchase tax subsidy plan, offering up to 15,000 yuan in subsidies for eligible customers [4] - Leap Motor launched a December purchase incentive program, providing cash discounts of up to 17,000 yuan on various models [5] - FAW's Middle East company was officially unveiled in Abu Dhabi, marking a new phase in Hongqi's overseas business [6][7] - BYD introduced its first plug-in hybrid vehicle, the Sealion 6 SUV, in Japan, targeting the local market dominated by Toyota [8] - Cao Cao Mobility announced a strategic goal for its Robotaxi service, aiming for a "ten years, hundred cities, and hundred billion" target, along with the launch of a green intelligent transportation hub [9] - Fudi Battery signed a strategic cooperation agreement with the government of Zhijiang City to promote new energy projects [10] International News - Spain plans to invest approximately 1.5 billion USD to support the electric vehicle market and industry chain development as part of its 2035 strategic plan [11] - South Africa's new vehicle sales reached 54,896 units in November, marking a 12.5% year-on-year increase, although it saw a 1.9% month-on-month decline [12] - Suzuki announced an investment of 2.5 billion rupees (approximately 196 million yuan) to build 2,000 electric vehicle charging stations in India [13] - India's automotive sales saw significant growth in November, with Maruti Suzuki reporting a 21% year-on-year increase, while Mahindra and Tata Motors also experienced a 22% rise [14] Commercial Vehicles - Weichai Power and Shaanxi Automobile launched a new high-efficiency engine, the WP12H-2.0, focusing on fuel efficiency [15] - Haikou plans to implement a full ban on light fuel trucks in designated zero-emission demonstration zones starting January 1, 2026 [16] - The 2026 Pickup Annual Model Evaluation has officially started, with 11 new pickup models participating in the assessment [17] - Jiangling's Baodian pickup has made its debut in Tunisia, marking a significant step for the brand in the North African market [18]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the government's subsidy program for vehicle trade-ins on the automotive market in China, highlighting adjustments in subsidy policies and their effects on consumer behavior and market dynamics [4][5]. Group 1: Subsidy Program Overview - The central government issued a total of 300 billion yuan in special bonds to support consumer goods trade-ins, including vehicle trade-ins and scrappage [4]. - The subsidy funds were distributed quarterly, with 81 billion yuan allocated in January, 81 billion yuan in April, 69 billion yuan in July, and 69 billion yuan in October [4]. Group 2: Market Impact - Over the first 11 months of the year, the trade-in program generated over 2.5 trillion yuan in sales, benefiting more than 360 million people, with over 11.2 million vehicles traded in [5]. - The trade-in vehicles accounted for over one-third of total vehicle sales, which were estimated to be nearly 30 million units during the same period [5]. - Adjustments in subsidy policies have led to a decrease in market momentum compared to the previous year, with many provinces experiencing varying degrees of policy tightening [5][6]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The continuation of the trade-in policy into 2026 remains uncertain, with some provinces raising the thresholds for scrappage and trade-in subsidies [6]. - Despite the tightening of policies, the overall outlook for the new energy vehicle sector remains positive due to expected adjustments in purchase tax and year-end promotions from automakers [6].

国家发改委会同财政部综合各地区常住人口数量、地区生产总值、汽车和家电保有量、2024年消费品以 旧换新政策及资金执行情况等因素，将上述国补资金分配至各省市。而各省份同样综合考虑各因素，将 收到的国补资金分配给下辖市县等，并明晰相应补贴范围、标准等。 商务部今日数据显示，今年前11个月，消费品以旧换新带动相关商品销售额超2.5万亿元，惠及超3.6亿 人次。其中，汽车以旧换新超1120万辆。根据中汽协、乘联会相关数据保守预估，今年前11个月汽车销 量近3000万辆。以此计算，汽车以旧换新数量在总销量中占比已超1/3。 乘联分会最新的报告显示，截至目前，所有省份均已完成对置换补贴政策的调整。随着政策覆盖面收 窄、支持力度减弱，其对车市的支撑效应逐步衰减。与去年同期政策拉动效应显著相比，当前市场增长 有所动能不足。 乘联分会秘书长崔东树对第一财经表示，全国大多数省份报废更新与以旧换新补贴出现不同程度的调 整，市场在前几个月经历了多轮抢政策补贴，已经形成了较大的透支效应，部分消费者面临无补贴政 策，因此近期的观望心态也较强。他预计，12月车市将呈现平稳的状态。 以旧换新，是2025年中国车市的关键词之一。 年末将至，随 ...

行业 镍日报 日期 2025 年 11 月 20 日 有色金属研究团队 研究员：余菲菲 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 研究员:张平 021-60635734 zhangpin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 研究员：彭婧霖 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 汽车购置税将减半征收，中汽协提议，明年应持续优化汽车"以旧换新"政 策，以稳定市场预期。 请阅读正文后的声明 - 3 - 镍观点： 宏观情绪有所缓解，19 日沪镍暂止跌企稳运行，主力 2601 小幅高开后震荡 运行，收盘报 115830，较上日上涨 0.29%。金川镍平均升水较上日涨 50 报 4100， 国产电积镍升水报 0-400。8-12%高镍生铁仍未止住跌势，均价下跌 2.5 至 897 元 /镍点，电池级硫酸镍均价较上日下跌 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the "hidden" benefits of vehicle and vessel tax reductions under the new government policy promoting the replacement of old vehicles, particularly focusing on the tax incentives for energy-efficient and new energy vehicles [5][7]. Group 1: Tax Benefits for Energy-Efficient Vehicles - Energy-efficient passenger cars with an engine displacement of 1.6 liters or below can enjoy a 50% reduction in vehicle and vessel tax, provided they meet specific fuel consumption standards [5][6]. - Energy-efficient commercial vehicles, including light and heavy-duty vehicles that run on natural gas, gasoline, or diesel, are also eligible for the same tax reduction, contingent on meeting fuel consumption criteria [6]. Group 2: Exemptions for New Energy Vehicles - New energy vehicles, such as pure electric commercial vehicles, plug-in hybrid vehicles, and fuel cell commercial vehicles, are exempt from vehicle and vessel tax [7][8]. - To qualify for the tax exemption, these vehicles must be approved for sale in China and meet the relevant technical standards and testing requirements [8]. Group 3: Handling of Old Vehicles - Taxpayers can apply for a refund of vehicle and vessel tax for vehicles that have been stolen, scrapped, or lost within a tax year, provided they present the necessary documentation [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - From November 12 - 18, 2025, rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia decreased compared to the previous period. The impact on rubber tapping varied in different regions. The synthetic rubber market stopped falling and stabilized this week, while natural rubber oscillated strongly to repair some previous losses. The domestic economic growth slowed down in October, and policy support is still needed. Natural rubber has cost - side support, with a slight inventory build - up and no obvious inventory pressure. The production of butadiene rubber has been high this year, with obvious inventory pressure in factories, suppressing price elasticity. Downstream tire demand is weakening, and the overall tire production utilization rate is weakly stable. Overall, natural rubber will mainly oscillate, and synthetic rubber will have a weak price trend. Attention should be paid to the widening price difference between natural and synthetic rubber [6][30] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Report Summary - From November 12 - 18, 2025, rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia changed, affecting rubber tapping differently in different regions. The synthetic rubber market stopped falling, and natural rubber oscillated strongly. In October, the domestic economic growth slowed down, and policy support is needed. Natural rubber has cost - side support, with a slight inventory build - up. The production of butadiene rubber is high, and downstream tire demand is weakening. The market lacks prominent contradictions, and natural rubber will oscillate, while synthetic rubber will have a weak price trend [5][6] - In October, the sales of new energy vehicles in China accounted for 51.6% of the total new vehicle sales, with production and sales increasing year - on - year. The retail sales of passenger cars decreased year - on - year, and the wholesale sales of new energy passenger cars increased year - on - year [7] Multi - empty Focus - Bullish factors: Natural rubber has no obvious inventory pressure and its raw material prices are supported. Bearish factors: The domestic economic data growth slowed down in October [10] Data Analysis - Economic data: In October, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 2.9% year - on - year. From January to October 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 1.7% year - on - year, and private fixed - asset investment decreased by 4.5% year - on - year. In October, the added value of large - scale industries increased by 4.9% year - on - year [15] - Natural rubber raw material prices: As of November 13, the prices of raw materials in Thailand and domestic regions were at certain levels. The raw material prices were firm due to the approaching off - season in Yunnan and rain in overseas areas [16] - Natural rubber inventory: As of the week of November 7, 2025, the overall natural rubber inventory continued to build up slightly. The inventory in bonded warehouses in Qingdao decreased, while that in general trade warehouses increased [20] - Butadiene rubber raw material and profit: The price of butadiene has stabilized recently, and the production profit of butadiene rubber has declined. As of the week of November 14, the theoretical production profit was 606.8571 yuan/ton, down 105.71 yuan/ton from last week [21] - Butadiene rubber inventory: As of the week of November 14, the production of high - cis butadiene rubber increased, the factory inventory increased slightly, and the trader inventory increased significantly [23] - Tire production utilization rate: As of the week of November 14, the production utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises decreased slightly, and that of semi - steel tire sample enterprises increased slightly. The inventory days of both increased [24] - Rubber contract price difference: As of November 13, the "RU - NR" January contract price difference oscillated narrowly, and the "NR - BR" main contract price difference was strong [26] 后市研判 - Macroscopically, the domestic economic growth slowed down in October, and policy support is needed. Fundamentally, natural rubber has cost - side support, with a slight inventory build - up and no obvious inventory pressure. Butadiene rubber has high inventory pressure, and downstream tire demand is weakening. Overall, natural rubber will oscillate, and synthetic rubber will have a weak price trend. Attention should be paid to the widening price difference between natural and synthetic rubber [30]