中国汽车流通协会：12月第一周，二手车市场呈现显著回暖特征 中国汽车流通协会指出，12月第一周，二手车市场呈现显著回暖特征，日均交易量6.75万辆，环比上周 增长3.46%，交易规模与增速均超出行业预期。本轮增长主要源于两方面驱动：渠道层面，新车经销商 为完成年度销售目标，启动"清库冲刺"策略；二手车车源丰富；需求层面，年底消费旺季效应显现，企 业年终奖发放、节日出行需求增加等因素推动购车意愿提升，调研显示超6成消费者认为"年底是购车最 佳时机"。值得关注的是，新能源二手车交易活跃度持续攀升，本周占比达18.3%，环比增加2.1个百分 点，反映出市场结构向新能源化加速转型。 中汽协：汽车产销量全年有望再创历史新高 乘联分会崔东树：2025年汽车以旧换新规模预计超1800亿元 12月11日，中汽协表示，11月，汽车产销延续良好表现。企业抢抓政策窗口期，生产供给依然保持较快 节奏，在高基数基础上，产销环比、同比均实现增长。其中，乘用车市场运行平稳，商用车市场持续向 好，新能源汽车表现强劲，汽车出口较快增长。展望全年，汽车内需市场在政策组合效应推动下有效改 善，新动能加快释放，对外贸易呈现出较好韧性，汽车产销量全年 ...

Core Viewpoint - The automotive market is expected to experience significant growth in 2025 due to strong incentives for vehicle trade-ins and tax benefits for new energy vehicles, with projections indicating a market size exceeding 1.8 trillion yuan [1] Group 1: Market Growth Projections - The scale of vehicle trade-ins in 2025 is anticipated to exceed 1.8 trillion yuan due to robust trade-in subsidies [1] - New energy vehicle purchase tax incentives of 10% are expected to increase sales by 22% compared to 2024, leading to over 200 billion yuan in tax reductions from sales exceeding 2 trillion yuan [1] - With nearly 400 billion yuan in tax exemptions and subsidies, the automotive market is projected to grow beyond expectations in 2025 [1] Group 2: Future Challenges - In 2026, the reduction of new energy vehicle purchase tax to 5% will result in over 100 billion yuan less in tax benefits, creating significant pressure on market growth [1] - The desire for a strong start to the 14th Five-Year Plan suggests that the end of 2025 should be stable, avoiding excessive depletion of next year's growth potential [1]

编前：今年以来，汽车产业在继续保持平稳增长的同时，各领域亮点纷呈，新能源汽车产销量进一步提升，和燃油车平分天下；促 消费政策更加精准，进一步激活汽车市场消费活力；智能汽车飞速发展，产业导向明确，智能化技术百花齐放……岁末将至，总结2025 年我国汽车产业的发展，围绕"两新"、服务消费以及人工智能＋等热点话题，《中国汽车报》推出"车经济新方位"栏目，集中展现今年以 来汽车领域的亮点成就。 今年以来，随着一系列政策的陆续落地，汽车消费展现出强劲的增长潜力，成为拉动消费、稳定经济的重要力量。这一年，从汽车以旧 换新、贷款支持到供需适配，从拉动新车市场到规范二手车流通，从产品刺激到精准施策、全链条激活，促汽车消费政策持续加码，推 动汽车消费连连攀升，步步扩增。"与往年不同的是，今年以来促汽车消费不仅政策接连出台，且持续向深层次推进，深入挖掘汽车消 费'蓝海'潜力。"中国汽车工业咨询委员会主任安庆衡在接受《中国汽车报》记者采访时表示，在政策"组合拳"的推动下，今年汽车消费 取得了有目共睹的好成绩，全年产销量有望再创新高。 在促汽车消费大环境日益向好的同时，个别区域的地方保护、二手车流通不畅、汽车改装存在"灰色地带"等发 ...

Group 1: Passenger Car Market Performance - In November, the retail sales of passenger cars in China reached approximately 2.225 million units, representing a year-on-year decline of 8.1% and a month-on-month decrease of 1.1% [1] - Cumulative retail sales for the year amount to about 21.483 million units, showing a year-on-year growth of 6.1% [1] - The decline in November is unusual, as the market had previously experienced a 13% growth in the first half of the year, with a subsequent slowdown in the latter half [1] Group 2: New Energy Vehicle (NEV) Sales - In November, the sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 1.321 million units, marking a year-on-year increase of 4.2% and a penetration rate of 59.3% in the overall passenger car market [2] - BYD led the monthly wholesale sales of new energy vehicles with over 470,000 units, followed by Geely with 187,000 units [2] - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles among domestic brands is 79.6%, while luxury brands and mainstream joint ventures have penetration rates of 38.8% and 8%, respectively [2] Group 3: Export Performance of NEVs - In November, the export volume of new energy vehicles reached 284,000 units, a significant year-on-year increase of 243.3%, accounting for 47.3% of the total export market [3] - The export of pure electric vehicles constituted 57% of the new energy vehicle exports, while plug-in hybrid models made up 42% [3] - The export of power batteries also saw growth, with domestic usage at 5.683 million kWh and export usage at 1.09 million kWh, reflecting year-on-year increases of 13% and 188%, respectively [3] Group 4: Market Outlook and Challenges - The retail share of new forces in the automotive market reached 22.1% in November, an increase of 5.9 percentage points year-on-year [4] - Predictions for December suggest a stable market performance, with potential for slight negative growth due to consumer urgency driven by upcoming tax policy changes [5] - Looking ahead, the market is expected to face pressure in 2026 due to the reduction of tax exemptions, which could significantly impact sales growth [5]

与往年年底车市翘尾走势不同的是，今年11月国内乘用车市场销量同比出现下滑。 12月8日，乘联分会公布的最新数据显示，11月，全国乘用车市场零售销量约222.5万辆，同比下降8.1%，环比下降1.1%；今年以来累计零售销量约2148.3万 辆，同比增长6.1%。 "11月乘用车市场销量环比出现下降，是比较少见的。"乘联分会秘书长崔东树认为，今年上半年，我国乘用车市场销量实现了13%的较快增长，下半年车市 增长需要回到合理、稳定的状态。 图片来源：每经记者 张建 摄（资料图） 复盘来看，今年国内乘用车市场零售累计增速从1~2月增长1.2%，3~6月增长15%，7~9月增速徘徊在6%左右，10~11月回落到偏低状态，呈现四季度高基数 的减速特征，基本符合乘联分会在今年年初所判断的"前低中高后平"的走势。 乘联分会认为，今年调节车市增速的重要政策是"以旧换新"。截至10月22日，2025年汽车以旧换新补贴申请量突破千万辆，前11个月申请量已达1120万辆。 随着各地补贴大面积暂停，11月的日均补贴规模降到3万辆，增速调节效果明显。 新能源车月销1万辆以上车企增至22家 随着众多车企在新能源车路线上"多线并举"策略的实 ...

Domestic News - In the first 11 months, over 11.2 million vehicles were replaced through the old-for-new policy, contributing to a sales volume exceeding 2.5 trillion yuan, benefiting over 360 million people [2] - From January to October, China imported 404,000 complete vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 30%, with an import value of 20.25 billion USD, down 38.3% year-on-year [3] - GAC Group announced a year-end vehicle purchase tax subsidy plan, offering up to 15,000 yuan in subsidies for eligible customers [4] - Leap Motor launched a December purchase incentive program, providing cash discounts of up to 17,000 yuan on various models [5] - FAW's Middle East company was officially unveiled in Abu Dhabi, marking a new phase in Hongqi's overseas business [6][7] - BYD introduced its first plug-in hybrid vehicle, the Sealion 6 SUV, in Japan, targeting the local market dominated by Toyota [8] - Cao Cao Mobility announced a strategic goal for its Robotaxi service, aiming for a "ten years, hundred cities, and hundred billion" target, along with the launch of a green intelligent transportation hub [9] - Fudi Battery signed a strategic cooperation agreement with the government of Zhijiang City to promote new energy projects [10] International News - Spain plans to invest approximately 1.5 billion USD to support the electric vehicle market and industry chain development as part of its 2035 strategic plan [11] - South Africa's new vehicle sales reached 54,896 units in November, marking a 12.5% year-on-year increase, although it saw a 1.9% month-on-month decline [12] - Suzuki announced an investment of 2.5 billion rupees (approximately 196 million yuan) to build 2,000 electric vehicle charging stations in India [13] - India's automotive sales saw significant growth in November, with Maruti Suzuki reporting a 21% year-on-year increase, while Mahindra and Tata Motors also experienced a 22% rise [14] Commercial Vehicles - Weichai Power and Shaanxi Automobile launched a new high-efficiency engine, the WP12H-2.0, focusing on fuel efficiency [15] - Haikou plans to implement a full ban on light fuel trucks in designated zero-emission demonstration zones starting January 1, 2026 [16] - The 2026 Pickup Annual Model Evaluation has officially started, with 11 new pickup models participating in the assessment [17] - Jiangling's Baodian pickup has made its debut in Tunisia, marking a significant step for the brand in the North African market [18]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the government's subsidy program for vehicle trade-ins on the automotive market in China, highlighting adjustments in subsidy policies and their effects on consumer behavior and market dynamics [4][5]. Group 1: Subsidy Program Overview - The central government issued a total of 300 billion yuan in special bonds to support consumer goods trade-ins, including vehicle trade-ins and scrappage [4]. - The subsidy funds were distributed quarterly, with 81 billion yuan allocated in January, 81 billion yuan in April, 69 billion yuan in July, and 69 billion yuan in October [4]. Group 2: Market Impact - Over the first 11 months of the year, the trade-in program generated over 2.5 trillion yuan in sales, benefiting more than 360 million people, with over 11.2 million vehicles traded in [5]. - The trade-in vehicles accounted for over one-third of total vehicle sales, which were estimated to be nearly 30 million units during the same period [5]. - Adjustments in subsidy policies have led to a decrease in market momentum compared to the previous year, with many provinces experiencing varying degrees of policy tightening [5][6]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The continuation of the trade-in policy into 2026 remains uncertain, with some provinces raising the thresholds for scrappage and trade-in subsidies [6]. - Despite the tightening of policies, the overall outlook for the new energy vehicle sector remains positive due to expected adjustments in purchase tax and year-end promotions from automakers [6].

国家发改委会同财政部综合各地区常住人口数量、地区生产总值、汽车和家电保有量、2024年消费品以 旧换新政策及资金执行情况等因素，将上述国补资金分配至各省市。而各省份同样综合考虑各因素，将 收到的国补资金分配给下辖市县等，并明晰相应补贴范围、标准等。 商务部今日数据显示，今年前11个月，消费品以旧换新带动相关商品销售额超2.5万亿元，惠及超3.6亿 人次。其中，汽车以旧换新超1120万辆。根据中汽协、乘联会相关数据保守预估，今年前11个月汽车销 量近3000万辆。以此计算，汽车以旧换新数量在总销量中占比已超1/3。 乘联分会最新的报告显示，截至目前，所有省份均已完成对置换补贴政策的调整。随着政策覆盖面收 窄、支持力度减弱，其对车市的支撑效应逐步衰减。与去年同期政策拉动效应显著相比，当前市场增长 有所动能不足。 乘联分会秘书长崔东树对第一财经表示，全国大多数省份报废更新与以旧换新补贴出现不同程度的调 整，市场在前几个月经历了多轮抢政策补贴，已经形成了较大的透支效应，部分消费者面临无补贴政 策，因此近期的观望心态也较强。他预计，12月车市将呈现平稳的状态。 以旧换新，是2025年中国车市的关键词之一。 年末将至，随 ...

行业 镍日报 日期 2025 年 11 月 20 日 有色金属研究团队 研究员：余菲菲 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 研究员:张平 021-60635734 zhangpin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 研究员：彭婧霖 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 汽车购置税将减半征收，中汽协提议，明年应持续优化汽车"以旧换新"政 策，以稳定市场预期。 请阅读正文后的声明 - 3 - 镍观点： 宏观情绪有所缓解，19 日沪镍暂止跌企稳运行，主力 2601 小幅高开后震荡 运行，收盘报 115830，较上日上涨 0.29%。金川镍平均升水较上日涨 50 报 4100， 国产电积镍升水报 0-400。8-12%高镍生铁仍未止住跌势，均价下跌 2.5 至 897 元 /镍点，电池级硫酸镍均价较上日下跌 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the "hidden" benefits of vehicle and vessel tax reductions under the new government policy promoting the replacement of old vehicles, particularly focusing on the tax incentives for energy-efficient and new energy vehicles [5][7]. Group 1: Tax Benefits for Energy-Efficient Vehicles - Energy-efficient passenger cars with an engine displacement of 1.6 liters or below can enjoy a 50% reduction in vehicle and vessel tax, provided they meet specific fuel consumption standards [5][6]. - Energy-efficient commercial vehicles, including light and heavy-duty vehicles that run on natural gas, gasoline, or diesel, are also eligible for the same tax reduction, contingent on meeting fuel consumption criteria [6]. Group 2: Exemptions for New Energy Vehicles - New energy vehicles, such as pure electric commercial vehicles, plug-in hybrid vehicles, and fuel cell commercial vehicles, are exempt from vehicle and vessel tax [7][8]. - To qualify for the tax exemption, these vehicles must be approved for sale in China and meet the relevant technical standards and testing requirements [8]. Group 3: Handling of Old Vehicles - Taxpayers can apply for a refund of vehicle and vessel tax for vehicles that have been stolen, scrapped, or lost within a tax year, provided they present the necessary documentation [10].