Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in oil prices have created uncertainty for consumers, with a potential price increase looming after a series of recent price adjustments [1][13]. Price Fluctuations - Over the past five months, oil prices have been highly volatile, with ten adjustments made: six decreases, one increase, and three unchanged [1]. - The price of gasoline has decreased significantly, with savings of approximately 30-40 yuan per tank for consumers [1]. Regional Price Differences - There are notable regional disparities in gasoline prices across China, with northern regions generally enjoying lower prices compared to southern areas like Hainan, where prices are significantly higher due to transportation costs and seasonal demand [2][3]. - For example, the price of 92-octane gasoline in Hainan is nearing 8.1 yuan per liter, while in places like Shanxi and Inner Mongolia, it is around 6.67 yuan [2]. Current Pricing Data - Latest gasoline prices (in yuan per liter) include: - Northeast: Liaoning 7.91, Jilin 7.84, Heilongjiang 8.14 [4] - North China: Beijing 8.64, Tianjin 8.57, Hebei 7.89 [5] - East China: Shanghai 9.10, Jiangsu 9.16, Zhejiang 8.61 [6] - Diesel prices in various regions are also provided, with Northeast prices around 6.19-6.26 yuan per liter [7]. Upcoming Price Adjustments - A new price adjustment is expected soon, with current data indicating a potential increase of 70 yuan per ton, surpassing the threshold for an increase [13]. - Consumers are advised to monitor the situation closely, as international oil prices have shown recent downward trends, adding to the uncertainty of future price movements [13].

Core Viewpoint - The oil prices are expected to rise due to geopolitical tensions and increased demand ahead of the Chinese New Year, despite a generally oversupplied market and a shift towards electric vehicles [2][3][8]. Price Trends - The next price adjustment window is on January 20, with expectations of an increase of approximately 75 yuan per ton, translating to a rise of about 0.06 yuan per liter [2][8]. - Since August of the previous year, there have been ten price adjustments, with six decreases and one increase, resulting in a cumulative drop of nearly 700 yuan per ton for gasoline [2][3]. Regional Price Variations - Gasoline prices vary significantly across regions, with 92-octane gasoline priced at 6.66 yuan per liter in Hunan and up to 7.82 yuan in Hainan [4][5][6]. - The price for 98-octane gasoline also shows considerable regional differences, with prices reaching 9.30 yuan in Hainan and as low as 7.72 yuan in Gansu [6][7]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Global oil supply remains ample, with U.S. shale oil production exceeding 13.8 million barrels per day and OPEC not reducing output [3]. - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts global economic growth at 3.1% for the year, which is lower than the previous year, indicating a weaker demand outlook for oil [3]. Long-term Outlook - Analysts predict that the average international oil price may settle between $60 and $65 per barrel this year, which is lower than last year [3][8]. - The overall market is expected to remain oversupplied, with increasing competition from electric vehicles and policies aimed at reducing carbon emissions [8][12].

Core Insights - The article discusses the recent surge in oil prices, highlighting the political dynamics at play, particularly involving the Trump administration and geopolitical tensions with Iran [1][5] - The anticipated drop in oil prices has been replaced by a rise, causing financial strain on consumers [3][5] Oil Price Movements - On January 14, WTI crude oil futures rose by $0.83, a 1.39% increase, reaching $60.33 per barrel, while Brent crude oil increased by $0.54 to $64.74 per barrel [1] - The international crude oil change rate has risen to 1.30%, indicating a projected increase of 40 yuan per ton, nearing the adjustment threshold [3] Geopolitical Factors - The increase in oil prices is attributed to heightened tensions due to the Trump administration's actions, including a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and increased pressure on Iran's leadership [1][5] - Concerns over a potential decline in Iranian oil exports have contributed to a "risk premium" in oil prices, pushing them to a seven-week high [1] Consumer Impact - The rising oil prices reflect a broader economic concern where political instability affects everyday consumers, leading to feelings of anxiety and financial strain [5] - The article emphasizes the emotional rollercoaster experienced by consumers as they navigate fluctuating oil prices, which are influenced by political maneuvers [5] Regional Fuel Prices - The article provides a table of fuel prices across various regions in China, indicating the current prices for 92, 95, and 98 octane gasoline [4][6]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming adjustment of domestic oil prices on January 20, 2026, is uncertain due to fluctuating international oil prices, which initially suggested a decrease but have recently shown signs of increase [1][2]. Group 1: Price Fluctuations - Initially, predictions indicated a potential decrease of 120 CNY per ton, but recent increases in international oil prices have altered this outlook [1]. - As of January 14, the change rate for crude oil has turned positive at 0.45%, leading to an estimated increase of 5 CNY per ton, which is below the adjustment threshold of 50 CNY per ton [1][2]. - The adjustment cycle began with expectations of a decrease, with initial forecasts of a 65 CNY per ton reduction on January 7, followed by an 80 CNY per ton decrease on January 9 [1]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Geopolitical tensions and OPEC's decision to halt production increases have contributed to rising international oil prices, creating supply-side pressures [2]. - Despite recent fluctuations, the market remains uncertain, with U.S. crude oil prices at approximately 58.57 USD per barrel and Brent crude around 58.9 USD, indicating a lack of market confidence [2]. - The International Energy Agency has projected a surplus of 3.8 million barrels per day in the first half of the year, suggesting that long-term supply may exceed demand despite short-term geopolitical concerns [2]. Group 3: Regional Price Variations - Current prices for 95-octane gasoline vary significantly across regions, with Beijing at 7.14 CNY per liter, Shanghai at 7.10 CNY, and Guangzhou at 7.29 CNY, while Hainan has the highest price at 8.3 CNY [3]. - For 98-octane gasoline, prices are even higher, with Beijing at 8.64 CNY, Shanghai at 9.1 CNY, and the highest reported price in Hubei at 9.19 CNY per liter [5]. Group 4: Consumer Sentiment - Consumers are advised to wait for clearer signals before making decisions on refueling, as the final price adjustment remains uncertain until the next few days [6]. - The current situation reflects a state of indecision in the market, with prices neither firmly increasing nor decreasing, leaving consumers in a state of anticipation [6].

Core Insights - The anticipated increase in oil prices for January 2026 was postponed as the price adjustment did not meet the threshold of a 50 yuan per ton increase, resulting in stable fuel prices across many regions [1][5] - The average price of 92 octane gasoline remains around 6.7 yuan per liter, with some areas like Xinjiang reporting prices as low as 6.53 yuan, while major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou range between 6.8 to 6.9 yuan [1][2] - The overall trend for 2025 was characterized by more price decreases than increases, with 95 octane gasoline dropping from nearly 9 yuan to around 7.2 yuan, and diesel prices reaching a five-year low of 6.31 yuan per liter [2][3] Price Adjustments and Trends - The next price adjustment window is set for January 20, with current forecasts indicating a potential decrease of 80 yuan per ton, translating to a reduction of 5 to 7 cents per liter [2][5] - Recent fluctuations in international oil prices, with WTI rebounding to 59.12 USD and Brent to 63.34 USD, indicate volatility in the market, influenced by geopolitical factors and OPEC's production strategies [2][3] - The pricing of 95 octane gasoline varies significantly across regions, with prices in some southwestern areas reaching 7.35 yuan, while northern regions like Xinjiang report prices as low as 6.97 yuan, highlighting the impact of transportation costs and local taxes [3] Consumer Impact - The postponement of the price increase is viewed positively by consumers, allowing them to continue benefiting from lower fuel prices, especially with the upcoming Spring Festival travel demands [5] - Current fuel prices at gas stations are stable, with many stations selling at the lowest price from the last adjustment, encouraging consumers to fill up their tanks before the next potential price change [5]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic refined oil prices are expected to experience fluctuations, with a potential increase in the upcoming adjustment scheduled for January 20, 2026, due to rising international oil prices influenced by geopolitical tensions [3][5]. Group 1: Current Price Adjustments - As of January 6, 2026, domestic gasoline and diesel prices increased by 45 yuan per ton, leading to a situation of price stasis [1]. - The current average price for 92 gasoline in Beijing is stable at 6.7 yuan per liter, while in Shandong, it hovers around 6.67 yuan per liter [3]. Group 2: Future Price Predictions - The next price adjustment is set for January 20, 2026, with a countdown of 9 days remaining from the current adjustment [3]. - The current cycle has completed 30% of its duration, with predictions indicating a potential decrease in gasoline and diesel prices by 80 yuan per ton, although this figure has been revised downwards by 40 yuan per ton due to recent market changes [5]. Group 3: International Oil Market Influence - International oil prices have seen a significant increase, with WTI crude oil rising to $59.12 per barrel and Brent crude to $63.34 per barrel, reflecting a 5.6% increase over two days [5]. - The rise in oil prices is attributed to worsening conditions in Iran, raising concerns about global oil supply disruptions [5]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Risks - There is a growing concern among analysts that if international oil prices continue to rise, the upcoming price adjustment on January 20 could result in the first increase of the year for domestic oil prices [5].

Core Viewpoint - The oil prices have remained stable this week, with 92-octane gasoline priced around 6.69 yuan per liter and 95-octane gasoline below 7.21 yuan, reflecting a significant decrease from previous highs [1][2] Price Trends - In 2025, gasoline and diesel prices dropped by over 900 yuan per ton, resulting in savings of approximately 0.7 to 0.8 yuan per liter [1] - The first price adjustment of 2026 was initially expected to increase prices, but instead, it remained unchanged, with a slight increase of 45 yuan per ton noted [1] - The current price adjustment cycle began on January 7 and is expected to conclude on January 20, with a current decrease rate of -1.60% in crude oil prices, potentially leading to a further drop of 80 yuan per ton [1][2] Regional Price Variations - Gasoline prices vary significantly across regions, with 95-octane gasoline priced at 7.14 yuan in Beijing and up to 7.31 yuan in Guangxi, while some areas in the northwest are cheaper, such as Shaanxi at 6.97 yuan [2] - The price for 98-octane gasoline also shows considerable disparity, ranging from 7.72 yuan in Gansu to 9.29 yuan in Guangdong [3] Pricing Mechanism - The pricing mechanism for oil adjustments is based on a ten-working-day cycle, referencing the average prices of Brent, WTI, and Dubai crude oil, with adjustments triggered by fluctuations exceeding 50 yuan per ton [3] - The market sentiment can shift rapidly based on news of increased supply, affecting domestic prices despite the global economic recovery not significantly boosting industrial oil demand [3][6] Future Expectations - The likelihood of a price decrease on January 20 is high, with potential savings of three to four yuan for a full tank, which can accumulate to significant annual savings for frequent drivers [5] - Current global supply remains ample, keeping prices under pressure, and unless a major geopolitical event occurs, prices are expected to continue on a downward trend [6]

如今，2026年汽柴油首次调价搁浅后，新周期重新开始，2026年第2次调价，本次调整时间为1月20日24时，计价周期的10个工作日从1月7日至1月20日，距 离本次调整，时间还剩10天，新周期完成30%，油价处于下降范畴，但是，主流观点认为，此次调价，汽柴油或难以兑现今年首降的局面！ 据数据显示，截至1月10日，今天，受周末汽柴油调价休市，本轮计价周期停滞在第3个工作日，数据显示，按照本周四原油报价57.76美元/桶，布伦特原油 报价61.99美元/桶，原油单日大涨超3%，本周五，新周期第3个工作日，油价降幅收窄到80元/吨，原油均价回升至58.92美元/桶，原油变化率-1.25%！ 然而，虽然周末汽柴油按照周期第3个工作日下降80元/吨的水平执行！但是，最新消息了解，原油市场，本周末呈现"2连涨"的局面！隔夜，国际油价继续 走高，其中，WTI原油价格59.12美元/桶（+1.36美元），布伦特原油涨至63.34美元/桶（+1.35美元），重新汇总数据后，个人预估，下周一（1月12日）， 新周期第4个工作日，原油均价回升至59.5美元/桶，汽柴油降幅或大幅收窄，油价下跌将不足30元/吨，此次油价从下跌转向搁浅 ...

回顾本轮油价周期走势，可谓一波三折。周期自1月7日开启后，开局便迎来明确下跌，首日汽柴油预计跌幅达60元/ 吨，直接突破下调线；受前两个统计日国际油价的持续走低影响，周期第二天跌幅进一步扩大至80元/吨，市场下调 预期随之升温。不过好景不长，伴随着近两个统计日国际油价接连大涨，周期油价跌幅出现大幅收窄，当前已逼近 搁浅区间。 【今日油价涨跌预测】截至1月10日，本周期计价统计工作已完成3个统计日，最新油价预测显示，汽柴油预计下调 幅度为50元/吨，折算后每升油价将下跌0.04至0.05元。但这一跌幅或难以持续，受周五国际油价再次大涨的影响， 预计1月12日下周一，也就是周期第4个统计日，油价跌幅将大幅收窄，正式从下调状态转入搁浅区间。本轮油价调 整窗口为1月20日24时。 【国际油价】1月9日，国际油价再次迎来大涨，WTI 2月交货的轻质原油价格报收59.12美元/桶，涨幅2.35%；布伦 特3月交货的原油价格报收63.34美元/桶，涨幅2.18%，近两天累计大涨超5%。从周期均价来看，本周期前3个统计 日的WTI原油均价为56.96美元/桶，布伦特原油均价为60.88美元/桶，当前国际油价已远高于这一均值， ...

Core Viewpoint - The current oil price adjustment cycle is in a downtrend, but the expected decrease has significantly narrowed due to a recent surge in international oil prices, with a potential adjustment of 50 yuan/ton anticipated by January 20, 2026 [1][2]. Oil Price Adjustment Predictions - As of January 9, 2026, the expected reduction in gasoline and diesel prices is 50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton from the previous day, translating to a drop of 0.04 to 0.05 yuan per liter [1]. - The adjustment window is set for January 20, 2026, and the next seven days of international oil price trends will be crucial in determining the final adjustment direction [1][2]. International Oil Price Trends - On January 8, 2026, international oil prices rebounded sharply, with WTI crude oil closing at $57.76 per barrel (up 3.16%) and Brent crude at $61.99 per barrel (up 3.39%) [1]. - The average price of WTI crude oil for the first three days of the current cycle is $56.96 per barrel, and Brent is $60.88 per barrel, both showing an increase of approximately $0.5 per barrel from the previous day [2]. Domestic Fuel Prices - As of January 9, 2026, the average prices for gasoline and diesel across various regions in China are as follows: 92-octane gasoline at 6.7 yuan/liter, 95-octane gasoline at 7.15 yuan/liter, and 0 diesel at 6.31 yuan/liter, representing the lowest prices in nearly four years [3]. - The current low prices provide a benefit to consumers, but future adjustments will depend on international oil price movements [3].