Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has released the liquidity injection data for September 2025, indicating various monetary policy tools used to manage liquidity in the financial system [1] Group 1: Liquidity Injection Details - In September, the net injection from short-term reverse repos amounted to 390.2 billion yuan [1] - The net injection from the medium-term lending facility (MLF) was 300 billion yuan [1] - The net injection from the pledged supplementary lending (PSL) showed a net withdrawal of 88.3 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Market Operations - The net injection from the buyout reverse repos was 300 billion yuan [1] - There was no net injection from the open market treasury transactions, indicating a neutral stance in this area [1]

Core Points - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) released the liquidity injection data for September, indicating significant net injections through various monetary policy tools [1] Group 1: Liquidity Injection Details - The net injection through short-term reverse repos amounted to 390.2 billion yuan [1] - The net injection from the buyout reverse repos was 300 billion yuan [1] - There was no net injection from the open market treasury transactions [1] - The net injection from the Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) was 300 billion yuan [1] - The net withdrawal through the Pledged Supplementary Lending (PSL) was 88.3 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy Tools Overview - Various monetary policy tools were utilized, including the adjustment of the required reserve ratio and several types of central bank loans [2] - The tools listed include Standing Lending Facility (SLF), Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF), and Pledged Supplementary Lending (PSL) [2] - Open market operations included short-term reverse repos and buyout reverse repos, with specific amounts allocated to each [2]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has significantly increased liquidity injections in response to the upcoming holidays and the end of the quarter, indicating a proactive approach to manage market liquidity [1] Group 1: Reverse Repo Operations - On September 30, the PBOC conducted a 7-day reverse repo operation amounting to 242.2 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.4% [1] - On the previous day, the PBOC executed a 7-day reverse repo operation of 288.6 billion yuan, also at an interest rate of 1.4%, resulting in a net injection of 48.1 billion yuan due to 240.5 billion yuan maturing [1] - From September 22 to September 30, the PBOC conducted a total of 31.799 trillion yuan in reverse repo operations, with 23.434 trillion yuan maturing, leading to a net injection of 836.5 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Increased Liquidity Measures - Since late September, the PBOC has ramped up liquidity measures, including the reintroduction of 14-day reverse repo operations, with an initial injection of 300 billion yuan on September 22, which was later increased to 600 billion yuan on September 26 [1] - The increase in liquidity measures is attributed to the dual holiday of National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival, alongside the quarter-end, highlighting the central bank's strategy to ensure sufficient liquidity in the financial system [1]

Group 1 - The central bank has resumed 14-day reverse repurchase operations after eight months, injecting 300 billion yuan into the market on September 22, alongside 240.5 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos, resulting in a net injection of 260.5 billion yuan for the day [1][2] - The adjustment of the 14-day reverse repo auction method to fixed quantity, interest rate bidding, and multiple price bidding aims to better meet the differentiated funding needs of various institutions and maintain liquidity in the banking system [2][3] - The current monetary policy transmission mechanism will use the 7-day reverse repo rate as a starting point, linking deposit rates to the 10-year government bond yield and the 1-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) [3] Group 2 - As the end of the quarter approaches, the central bank faces a liquidity test with over 2 trillion yuan in open market maturities, but fiscal deposits are expected to provide some liquidity support [4][5] - The central bank's approach to liquidity remains protective, with expectations of continued reasonable-scale open market operations to maintain stability in cross-quarter and holiday funding [4][5] - Recent increases in yields on bank interbank certificates of deposit and 10-year government bonds suggest limited upward space for medium to long-term market rates, as the central bank aims to maintain ample market liquidity [5]

Core Viewpoint - The central bank has increased liquidity injections into the market to stabilize the financial environment and support economic recovery [1] Group 1: Market Operations - This week, the central bank conducted a total of 18,268 million yuan in reverse repos, 1,500 million yuan in treasury cash deposits, and 6,000 million yuan in buyout reverse repos, resulting in a net liquidity injection of 11,923 million yuan [1] - Next week, there will be 18,268 million yuan in reverse repos maturing, with specific maturities of 2,800 million yuan, 2,870 million yuan, 4,185 million yuan, 4,870 million yuan, and 3,543 million yuan from Monday to Friday [1] - Additionally, 3,000 million yuan in Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) will mature on Thursday, September 25 [1] Group 2: Future Expectations - Industry insiders suggest that the central bank's recent actions to increase liquidity will help maintain a stable financial environment and reinforce the foundation for economic recovery [1] - The central bank is expected to continue using various monetary policy tools to inject liquidity into the market, with a possibility of increasing MLF operations this month and the potential resumption of government bond trading [1]

Core Viewpoint - The credit bond ETF fund (511200) has shown strong performance with a slight increase in value and high tracking accuracy, indicating a favorable investment environment in the credit bond market [1][2]. Group 1: Fund Performance - As of September 16, 2025, the credit bond ETF fund has accumulated a 0.13% increase in value for the month, ranking first among comparable funds [1]. - The fund's net value has risen by 1.46% over the past six months, placing it in the top 4.76% among 483 index bond funds [1]. - The fund has experienced a maximum of five consecutive months of gains since inception, with a maximum gain of 1.62% and a monthly profit percentage of 71.43% [1]. Group 2: Liquidity and Market Conditions - The People's Bank of China has increased liquidity measures, conducting two reverse repurchase operations in September, with a total of 600 billion yuan in operations on September 15 [1]. - The central bank's actions are in response to the maturity of 300 billion yuan in six-month reverse repos, indicating a proactive approach to maintaining market liquidity [1]. Group 3: Fund Composition - The credit bond ETF fund consists of 303 underlying bonds, all of which are AAA-rated and primarily issued by high-quality central state-owned enterprises [2]. - The fund covers a wide range of bond maturities from 0 to 30 years, effectively representing the entire yield curve with a focus on short to medium-term credit bonds [2].

Core Viewpoint - The central bank is actively managing liquidity through various monetary policy tools, including reverse repos and medium-term lending facilities (MLF), to ensure ample liquidity in the banking system and support economic growth [1][2]. Group 1: Central Bank Operations - On September 16, the central bank conducted a reverse repo operation of 287 billion yuan, resulting in a net injection of 40 billion yuan after 247 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos matured [1]. - In September, the central bank has already conducted two reverse repo operations, with a total of 6 billion yuan in 6-month reverse repos being rolled over, indicating a continuous increase in liquidity for the fourth consecutive month [1][2]. - The central bank's operations are influenced by tax periods, with a significant reverse repo of 6 billion yuan initiated on the first day of the tax period [2]. Group 2: Future Expectations - There is a possibility of further increases in liquidity measures, as 3 billion yuan in MLF is set to mature in September, and experts do not rule out the continuation of increased operations [2]. - The central bank is expected to utilize a combination of reverse repos and MLF to manage short- to medium-term liquidity effectively, while also considering long-term tools like reserve requirement ratio cuts and government bond transactions [2]. - The monetary policy report for Q2 2025 emphasizes the need to align liquidity levels with economic growth and inflation expectations, indicating a proactive approach to maintaining a conducive financial environment [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The timing for the central bank to restart treasury bond trading opportunistically may be gradually maturing. If restarted, it may take forms such as "buying short and selling long" (though "selling long" may not be necessary currently), directly "buying short", or moderately lengthening the duration of purchased treasury bonds. The impact on the market is expected to be relatively neutral [7][8][10]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Treasury Bond Trading Expected to Restart Opportunistically - From January to August 2025, the central bank suspended treasury bond trading operations for eight consecutive months. Currently, considering the treasury bond yield situation and the subsequent government bond issuance plan, the timing for restarting treasury bond trading may be gradually maturing. The current 10 - year treasury bond active bond yield has reached 1.80%, which opens up space for the restart. From the perspective of central bank - fiscal coordination, restarting treasury bond trading can enhance bond market liquidity and reduce fiscal financing costs [7][16][17]. 3.2 Possible Forms of Restarting Treasury Bond Trading 3.2.1 The Initial Operation Form of Treasury Bond Trading in 2024: "Buying Short and Selling Long" - In August 2024, the central bank announced treasury bond trading in the open market, specifically "buying short - term treasury bonds from some primary dealers in the open market and selling long - term treasury bonds". The central bank borrowed long - term bonds from some institutions for selling. However, currently, "selling long" may not be necessary as the policy - end demand for regulating treasury bond yields is not strong, and "selling long" may have a greater impact on short - term treasury bond yields [18][19][23]. 3.2.2 Similar to the Latter - Half Operation Form of Treasury Bond Trading in 2024: Directly "Buying Short" - In the latter half of 2024, the central bank may have directly "bought short". There were many treasury bonds with a maturity of less than 1 year. If the central bank directly "buys short" this year, the large - scale net purchase of short - term treasury bonds by large banks since early June can smooth the impact on the secondary market [24][27][29]. 3.2.3 The Central Bank May Moderately Lengthen the Duration of Purchased Treasury Bonds - From the perspective of stabilizing the central bank's treasury bond holding scale and improving the term arrangement of liquidity injection, the central bank may moderately lengthen the duration of purchased treasury bonds. The maturity of purchased treasury bonds does not lead to the central bank's liquidity withdrawal [34][35]. 3.3 The Impact of Restarting Treasury Bond Trading on the Market May Be Relatively Neutral - The central bank is expected to balance the liquidity injection of multiple tools. The current adjustment of the bond market is not mainly due to monetary policy. If short - term treasury bonds are purchased, the large - scale net purchase of short - term treasury bonds by large banks can buffer the impact. Primary dealers may play a role in stabilizing market fluctuations [10][37][41].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the bond market and its relationship with the stock market, highlighting the current weak sentiment in the bond market and the factors influencing it [1][2][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Correlation Between Stock and Bond Markets**: The correlation is not constant; when the stock market adjusts, the bond market does not necessarily follow. This indicates that additional capital is needed to support bond yields, rather than relying solely on trading expectations [2][4]. - **Current Yield Range**: The trading range for yields is currently between 1.70% and 1.80%, with a central tendency around 1.75%. This range is influenced by market sentiment and trading strategies [2][4]. - **Policy Expectations**: There are no significant changes in the fundamental outlook, making policy expectations a focal point for traders. Potential new policies, such as anti-involution measures and relaxed real estate policies, could influence market sentiment [2][4]. - **Impact of Shenzhen's Policy Changes**: The relaxation of purchase restrictions in Shenzhen is seen as a symbolic move that may prompt other cities to follow suit. However, the overall impact on the market is expected to be limited and more emotional than structural [5]. Important but Overlooked Content - **Liquidity Concerns**: The banking sector faces significant liquidity pressures due to a large volume of maturing certificates of deposit (CDs) and the need for open market operations to manage these pressures. The central bank's potential actions, such as interest rate cuts and liquidity injections, are critical to monitor [3][6][7]. - **Central Bank's Bond Purchase Strategy**: While not deemed absolutely necessary, the central bank's resumption of bond purchases could alleviate issuance pressures and signal a more positive outlook. The focus will be on whether the central bank will buy bonds of varying maturities [8][9]. - **Mixed Investment Products**: The relationship between stock and bond markets is complex, with mixed investment products affecting capital flows. When stocks perform poorly, these products may face redemption pressures, impacting the bond market negatively [10]. - **Key Monitoring Points**: Important factors to watch include the liquidity pressures faced by large banks, the progress of government bond transactions, and the redemption trends of mixed investment products, all of which will influence asset allocation strategies [11].

Group 1 - The central bank announced liquidity injection and withdrawal measures for August, with a net injection of 300 billion yuan through Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) [1] - In August, the central bank conducted a net withdrawal of 53.4 billion yuan through short-term reverse repos [1] - The central bank also executed a net injection of 300 billion yuan via buyout reverse repos, while no public market transactions of government bonds were conducted during the month [1] Group 2 - Various monetary policy tools were utilized, including adjustments to the required reserve ratio, standing lending facility (SLF), MLF, and pledged supplementary lending (PSL) [2] - The central bank's open market operations included short-term reverse repos, buyout reverse repos, and cash management for the central treasury [2]