Investment Rating - The industry maintains a "Recommended" rating, focusing on new consumption sectors such as beauty care, IP derivatives, and gold jewelry [5][28]. Core Insights - The market performance for the week of December 15-20, 2025, showed significant gains in the retail, social services, and beauty care sectors, outperforming the overall market with increases of +6.66%, +2.66%, and +2.87% respectively [2][14]. - The total retail sales of consumer goods from January to November 2025 reached 45.61 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4%. In November alone, retail sales totaled 4.39 trillion yuan, growing by 1.3% year-on-year, which was below market expectations [3][22]. - The service consumption growth rate outpaced that of goods retail, with service retail sales increasing by 5.4% year-on-year from January to November 2025 [3][22]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The beauty care, retail, and social services sectors ranked first, fourth, and third among 31 primary industries, respectively, during the week [2][14]. - Specific sub-sectors such as general retail, hotel and catering, and professional chains saw notable increases of +9.67%, +8.40%, and +5.06% [15]. Key Industry Data and News - The retail sales of consumer goods in November 2025 showed a modest increase, with categories like communication equipment and jewelry performing well, while automotive and home appliances faced challenges due to high base effects and subsidy reductions [3][22]. - The Ministry of Commerce initiated a two-year pilot program for new consumption models in 50 cities, aiming to stimulate consumption through various innovative approaches [3][22]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies in the beauty care and new consumption sectors, recommending specific stocks such as Shangmei Co., Juzhi Biotechnology, and Marubi Biotechnology [5][28].

Core Insights - The Ministry of Commerce has officially announced the list of "New Consumption Pilot Cities" and "International Consumption Environment Construction Pilot Cities," with Qingdao successfully included, which will bring a total of 5 billion yuan in financial subsidies to the city [1][3][4] Group 1: Financial Support and Policy Implementation - Qingdao will receive 400 million yuan for the "New Consumption Pilot" and 100 million yuan for the "International Consumption Environment Construction" [1][3] - The implementation period for both pilot policies is two years, aimed at guiding systematic upgrades in consumption through financial support and precise policy direction [4] Group 2: Objectives and Focus Areas - The "New Consumption Pilot" aims to enhance the service system for new economic launches, innovate diverse service consumption scenarios, and support cross-industry collaborations to improve consumption quality and stimulate consumer activity [3][4] - The "International Consumption Environment Construction" will focus on cultivating an international consumption environment, enhancing the "Buy in China" brand, and innovating international and diversified consumption scenarios to attract foreign tourists [3][4] Group 3: Qingdao's Economic Performance - Qingdao's total retail sales of consumer goods reached 658.45 billion yuan in 2024, maintaining its position as the "second consumption city in the north" [6] - The city has implemented various initiatives to boost consumption, including issuing 130 million yuan in consumer vouchers, which stimulated 3.66 billion yuan in consumption [6] - New consumption formats are emerging, with 95 new brand stores established this year, and online retail sales growing by 9.5% from January to October [6] Group 4: Strategic Planning and Future Goals - The "14th Five-Year Plan" for Shandong Province emphasizes supporting Qingdao in becoming an international consumption center and enhancing its economic scale [8][13] - The plan includes upgrading consumption clusters and developing high-quality commercial districts, which will benefit from the central government's financial support [13]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Commerce and the Ministry of Finance have issued a notification to implement pilot programs for new consumption formats, models, and scenarios in 50 cities, with significant financial support allocated to enhance consumer spending and stimulate economic growth [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Support and Implementation - The pilot program will provide financial subsidies of 400 million yuan for super-large cities, 300 million yuan for large cities, and 200 million yuan for other cities over a two-year implementation period [1][2]. - A competitive evaluation process was conducted, resulting in the selection of 50 cities, including Beijing, Shanghai, and Wuhan, to participate in the pilot program [2]. Group 2: Objectives and Strategic Directions - The initiative aims to combine consumer promotion with improving living standards, positioning local authorities as leaders in reforming consumption systems [2]. - The program focuses on three core areas: enhancing the first-release economic service system, innovating diverse service consumption scenarios, and promoting cross-industry collaborations with well-known IPs [4]. Group 3: Innovation and Development - The policy encourages the establishment of multi-level product launch platforms and supports innovative product showcases in various sectors, including fashion and electronics [4]. - It promotes the integration of digital technologies like AI and the metaverse with cultural and tourism sectors to create new consumption scenarios [4]. - The initiative also supports the development of night economy zones and the optimization of shopping centers to enhance consumer experiences [4]. Group 4: Cross-Industry Collaborations - The notification encourages collaborations between quality consumer resources and well-known IPs, leveraging digital entertainment and cultural heritage to create immersive shopping experiences [5]. - It aims to foster local cultural characteristics by integrating traditional resources with modern consumption trends, promoting new flagship stores and products [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of innovative and diversified consumption scenarios to expand domestic demand and enhance consumer experience, particularly through the integration of new business models and formats [1][4]. Group 1: New Consumption Models and Scenarios - The Ministry of Commerce and the Ministry of Finance have initiated pilot programs in 50 cities, including Beijing, to explore new consumption models and scenarios, focusing on enhancing quality supply and stimulating consumer potential [2][6]. - The pilot programs aim to address the insufficient supply of high-quality consumption and to foster innovation in consumption formats, thereby expanding premium consumption supply [2][3]. Group 2: Beijing's Role and Achievements - Beijing's selection as a pilot city is attributed to its large population, strong economic influence, and significant development potential, having attracted over 5,000 brand flagship stores since 2019 [3][4]. - The city has established itself as an international consumption center, with a consumption index reaching 109.9 in 2022, reflecting a 19.6% increase since the end of 2020 [3]. Group 3: Integration of Culture and Economy - The article highlights the effectiveness of cross-industry integration in enhancing consumption vitality, particularly through collaborations with well-known intellectual properties (IPs) to create culturally rich products that resonate with consumers [5]. - The pilot programs in Beijing will also focus on fostering "IP+" new consumption scenarios, integrating cultural consumption into daily life [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - The consumer sector has shown strong performance, with multiple stocks experiencing significant gains, attributed to positive policy signals from the government [1][10]. Stock Performance - On December 19, 21 stocks, including Debi Group (+19.99%), Chuangyuan Co. (+19.98%), and others, reached their daily limit [1][2]. - Notable stocks with over 10% increase include Huanlejia (+15.90%) and Xinnuo Wei (+11.44%) [1][2]. Policy Impact - The Ministry of Commerce announced a pilot program for new consumption models in 50 cities, aimed at boosting consumer demand and enhancing the supply of quality goods and services [11][12]. - The pilot program is part of a broader initiative to stimulate consumption and support economic growth, aligning with the goals set in recent government meetings [11][12]. Market Analysis - Analysts suggest that the policy focuses on structural changes in the consumption market, promoting a shift from scale expansion to enhancing consumption capabilities through technology integration [12][13]. - The upcoming holiday season is expected to drive significant consumer demand, with retail and tourism sectors likely to see a surge [12][13]. Investment Opportunities - Four key segments are highlighted for investors: high-end commercial operations, technology consumer hardware, cultural IP ecosystems, and immersive service providers [13]. - Companies involved in these segments are expected to benefit from the policy changes and the evolving consumer landscape [13].

Core Viewpoint - The consumer sector has shown strong performance, with multiple stocks experiencing significant gains, driven by positive policy signals from the government [1][3]. Group 1: Stock Performance - As of December 19, several stocks, including Debi Group (+19.99%), Chuangyuan Co. (+19.98%), and others, reached their daily limit up [1][2]. - A total of 20 concept stocks were reported to be at their daily limit, while companies like Huanlejia and Baixinglong saw their stock prices increase by over 10% [1][2]. Group 2: Policy Impact - The Ministry of Commerce announced a pilot program for new consumption formats in 50 cities, aimed at boosting consumer demand and enhancing the quality of goods and services [4][5]. - The pilot program is part of a broader strategy to stimulate consumption and create a new consumption ecosystem that supports economic growth [4][5]. Group 3: Market Analysis - Analysts believe that the recent policy focus on structural changes in the consumer market will lead to new growth points in service consumption, driven by technology integration [5][6]. - The upcoming holiday season is expected to see a surge in consumer demand across various sectors, including retail and tourism, which could maximize the effectiveness of consumption-boosting policies [5][6]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - Four key segments are highlighted for investors: high-end commercial operations, technology consumer hardware, cultural IP ecosystems, and immersive service providers [6]. - Companies involved in these segments are likely to benefit from the policy initiatives and funding support aimed at enhancing consumer experiences [6].

Core Viewpoint - The consumer sector in A-shares is experiencing a significant rally, driven by favorable policies and market sentiment, with over 10 stocks hitting the daily limit up on December 19 [1][2]. Policy Support - The Ministry of Commerce and the Ministry of Finance have initiated a pilot program for new consumption formats in 50 cities, aiming to stimulate consumption and enhance the supply of quality goods and services [2][3]. - The central economic work conference emphasized the importance of expanding domestic demand and implementing actions to boost consumption, indicating a strong policy support for the consumer sector through 2026 [4]. Investment Trends - Analysts predict that the new consumption sector will gain attention, with a focus on sustainable business models and profitability as key investment criteria [5]. - The consumer market is expected to benefit from policy support and economic recovery, with specific sectors like e-commerce, service consumption, and new retail being highlighted as potential investment opportunities [6]. Future Outlook - The consumer sector is projected to evolve towards health-oriented products, practical consumption, and emotional spending, with a focus on smart and overseas consumption [5]. - The food and beverage sector is identified as a core investment theme for 2025, with a long-term outlook extending into 2026, particularly in the area of health-focused food products [6].

Core Viewpoint - The consumer sector in the A-share market has experienced a significant surge, with the retail trade sector leading the gains and individual stocks hitting the daily limit up [2][3][4]. Market Performance - On December 19, the A-share market showed an overall upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3899.31 points, up 0.59%, and briefly surpassing 3900 points during the session [4][5]. - The Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.93%, the ChiNext Index increased by 0.99%, and the STAR 50 Index gained 0.69% [4]. Consumer Sector Highlights - The retail trade sector saw a substantial increase, with the sector's stocks rising nearly 4% during the session. Notable stocks that hit the daily limit include Debi Group, Central Plaza, Shanghai Jiubai, Dalian Friendship, and Dongbai Group [5][6]. - Specific stock performances included: - Debi Group: +19.99% [6] - Central Plaza: +10.04% [6] - Shanghai Jiubai: +10.02% [6] - Dalian Friendship: +10.01% [6] - Dongbai Group: +9.99% [6] - YH Supermarket: +8.20% [6] New Stock Listing - A new stock, Youxun Co., was listed on the A-share market, with its price surging over 450% at one point during the trading session [9][10]. - Youxun Co. specializes in the research, design, and sales of optical communication front-end transceiver chips, which are critical components in optical communication systems [12]. Policy and Industry Support - The Ministry of Commerce and the Ministry of Finance have initiated a pilot program for new consumption formats in 50 cities, aimed at boosting consumer spending and enhancing the supply of quality goods and services [7]. - The pilot program is part of a broader initiative to stimulate consumption and improve living standards, emphasizing the importance of local government involvement in project management and support [7]. Other Sector Movements - Other sectors such as light industry manufacturing, real estate, and comprehensive services also saw gains, with increases exceeding 2% [7]. - Conversely, the banking and coal sectors experienced overall declines [7].

宏观日报 | 2025-12-19 关注下游消费新业态试点运行 中观事件总览 服务行业：1）近日，商务部办公厅、财政部办公厅印发《关于做好消费新业态新模式新场景试点有关工作的通知》， 在北京等50个城市开展消费新业态新模式新场景试点。12月17日，商务部会同财政部召开"三新"试点工作部署推 进会。会议强调，各试点城市要进一步完善实施方案，建立健全工作推进和保障机制，抓紧出台试点资金（项目） 管理办法，紧扣"三新"试点支持方向，精心筛选支持项目，强化项目动态管理。试点城市商务主管部门要发挥好 牵头协调作用，推动解决试点面临的堵点痛点问题，确保试点工作取得实效。 数据来源：iFind，华泰期货研究院 行业总览 上游：1）有色：镍、铅价格小幅回落。2）农业：棕榈油价格小幅回落。3）能源：国际原油，液化天然气价格持 续回落。 中游：1）化工：PX、PTA开工率持续回落。2）能源：电厂耗煤量提高。3）基建：沥青开工低位。 下游：1）地产：一、二、三线城市商品房销售持续回暖。2）服务：国内、国际航班班次回落。影视票房回落。 风险 经济政策超预期，全球地缘政治冲突 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一 ...

商务部服贸司司长孔德军此前指出，开展消费"三新"试点城市建设主要有两方面考虑：一方面是丰富高 品质服务供给，另一方面是发挥消费联动作用。"消费新业态新模式新场景往往具有较强辐射性和跨区 域性，一个成功的消费场景，既能够促进本地文旅、交通、住宿等关联产业发展，又能带动周边消 费。"孔德军称。 本次会议进一步指出，开展"三新"试点工作是落实《提振消费专项行动方案》、扩大优质商品和服务供 给的重要举措，有关地方商务主管部门要深刻认识开展"三新"试点的重要意义，准确把握试点工作定 位，坚持促消费与惠民生相结合，当好消费体制机制改革的排头兵，以改革、开放、创新激发新业态新 模式新场景发展活力，打造消费创新发展的新高地，培育消费能级提升的新引擎。 会议强调，各试点城市要进一步完善实施方案，建立健全工作推进和保障机制，抓紧出台试点资金(项 目)管理办法，紧扣"三新"试点支持方向，精心筛选支持项目，强化项目动态管理。加强宣传引导，引 导社会各界积极参与，增强试点支持项目的消费拉动作用。试点城市商务主管部门要发挥好牵头协调作 用，推动解决试点面临的堵点痛点问题。 近日，商务部会同财政部召开"三新"试点(即"消费新业态新模式新场 ...