1月28日周三，美联储公布了2026年首场议息会议的结果：维持当前联邦基金利率目标区间在3.50%-3.75%不变。虽然特朗普总统通过司法部传票、解职威胁 以及物色接班人等手段持续施压，但美联储依然选择了长暂停。 | 调性变了：从温和转向强劲 这次美联储的声明里，有一个词的变化非常关键。上个月他们对美国经济的描述还是温和，这个月直接升级到了强劲。 这种措辞的提升，实际上是给"不降息"找了一个坚实的台阶。美联储官员认为，既然劳动力市场已经趋于稳定，招聘未见疲软，那就不急着降息。数据显 示，失业率微降至4.4%，而去年11月的通胀率为2.8%，离2%的目标还有距离。 这其实是美联储在释放"鹰派"信号：既然大家都有活干，物价还没跌到预期，那大家指望的大放水就得再等等。这不仅是管钱袋子，更是美联储在向市场展 示其决策的"一致性"，不受政治博弈的干扰。 | 暂停降息：利息成本的长暂停 | 警惕：11年来最低的消费者信心 虽然美联储说经济强劲，但世界大型企业联合会的数据显示，1月美国消费者信心指数已经跌至11年来的最低水平。 一边是官方口中的"强劲增长"，一边是普通老百姓对经济的"悲观预期"。因为企业新增岗位寥寥，即便退 ...

（来源：新华日报） 来源：滚动播报 据新华社电 国际黄金期货和现货价格北京时间28日双双连续涨破每盎司5200美元和5300美元重要整数 关口，接连创下历史新高。 分析人士指出，受地缘政治紧张局势加剧、美国政府施压美联储降息、美国消费者信心指数跌幅超预 期、美国联邦政府可能再次陷入"停摆"等多重因素刺激，投资者避险情绪高涨，从而推动黄金价格持续 上涨。加拿大蒙特利尔银行认为，黄金等避险资产价格强劲上涨反映了全球市场格局的转变，多重不确 定性因素主导了投资者情绪。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the German consumer confidence index has shown signs of recovery after a significant decline at the beginning of the year, with the index rising by 2.8 points to -24.1 in February compared to the revised data from January [1] - Key indicators reflecting consumer confidence, including economic outlook, income expectations, and purchasing intentions, have all increased month-on-month [1] - Compared to the same period last year, consumers are more optimistic about the economic outlook for the next 12 months, believing that the economy is gradually emerging from a downturn and returning to moderate growth [1] Group 2 - The rise in income expectations is primarily attributed to the increase in the statutory minimum wage at the beginning of the year, which helps to boost the consumption environment [1] - Despite the recent improvement, consumer confidence remains at a low level, and the sustainability of this upward trend is uncertain [1] - Ongoing geopolitical tensions and escalating trade conflicts may pose further risks to market sentiment, indicating that the current recovery is not firmly established [1] Group 3 - Since 1980, the market research firm GfK has conducted monthly surveys of approximately 2,000 German consumers to gauge the confidence index [1] - This index serves as a leading indicator for predicting the trends in the German economy and consumer spending [1]

世界大型企业联合会1月信心指数降至84.5，为2014年以来最弱水平，物价与关税担忧加剧；LPL金融 公司（LPLA）称今年失业率可能逐步上升。 责任编辑：张俊 SF065 世界大型企业联合会1月信心指数降至84.5，为2014年以来最弱水平，物价与关税担忧加剧；LPL金融 公司（LPLA）称今年失业率可能逐步上升。 责任编辑：张俊 SF065 ...

Group 1 - Consumer confidence has significantly declined, reaching its lowest level since May 2014, surpassing the depths experienced during the COVID-19 pandemic [1] - All five components of the consumer confidence index deteriorated, indicating widespread concerns among respondents [1] - Elevated mentions of inflation, particularly regarding gas and grocery prices, have contributed to the decline in consumer confidence [1] Group 2 - Perceptions of the job market have also worsened this month, reflecting a negative outlook among consumers [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a stage of sufficient supply and temporarily stable demand, with seasonal inventory accumulation in social inventories. The option market sentiment is bullish with a slight decline in implied volatility. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows double - lines above the 0 axis and the red bar expanding. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades on dips with light positions, while controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper is 103,060 yuan/ton, up 460 yuan; LME 3 - month copper is 13,169 dollars/ton, up 162.5 dollars. The main contract's inter - month spread is - 260 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The main contract's open interest of Shanghai copper is 227,447 lots, down 2,310 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper is - 66,045 lots, up 3,756 lots. LME copper inventory is 172,350 tons, up 1,825 tons. The inventory of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 225,937 tons, up 12,422 tons. The warrant of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 148,038 tons, down 2,856 tons [2] Spot Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price is 101,660 yuan/ton, up 290 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot price is 101,580 yuan/ton, down 820 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 23 dollars/ton, unchanged. The average premium of Yangshan copper is 19.5 dollars/ton, down 2.5 dollars. The basis of the CU main contract is - 1,400 yuan/ton, down 170 yuan. The LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread is - 93.8 dollars/ton, down 22.73 dollars [2] Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 270.43 million tons, up 17.8 million tons. The TC of domestic copper smelters is - 49.79 dollars/kiloton, down 3.26 dollars. The price of copper concentrates in Jiangxi is 91,870 yuan/metal ton, down 30 yuan; in Yunnan is 92,570 yuan/metal ton, down 30 yuan. The processing fee for blister copper in the south is 2,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the north is 1,200 yuan/ton, unchanged. The output of refined copper is 132.6 million tons, up 9 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 440,000 tons, up 10,000 tons [2] Industry Situation - The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 69,040 yuan/ton, down 550 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 1,030 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 83,100 yuan/ton, down 850 yuan [2] Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 222.91 million tons, up 0.31 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 5,603.9 billion yuan, up 779.56 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 82,788.14 billion yuan, up 4,197.24 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,807,345,500 pieces, up 415,345,500 pieces [2] Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 25.86%, up 0.01%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 22.97%, down 0.41%. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money IV is 25.33%, down 0.0169%. The put - call ratio of at - the - money options is 1.62, down 0.0942 [2] Industry News - The Conference Board data shows that the US consumer confidence index in January dropped 9.7 points to 84.5, the lowest since 2014. US Census Bureau data indicates that the US population growth slowed in 2025, increasing by only 1.8 million (0.5%) to nearly 342 million. The "Fed whisperer" says the Fed is expected to pause rate cuts with an unclear path for resuming. China's National Bureau of Statistics data shows that the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in 2025 was 7.4 trillion yuan, up 0.6% year - on - year. In December, the profit of these enterprises turned from a 13.1% decline in November to a 5.3% increase. The central bank data shows that at the end of Q4 2025, the RMB real estate loan balance was 51.95 trillion yuan, a decrease of 963.6 billion yuan for the year. The real estate development loan balance was 13.16 trillion yuan, a decrease of 357.5 billion yuan for the year. The individual housing loan balance was 37.01 trillion yuan, a decrease of 676.8 billion yuan for the year [2]

新华财经巴黎1月28日电（记者李文昕）法国国家统计与经济研究所（INSEE）27日发布的报告显示， 2026年1月，法国消费者信心指数为90点，与上月持平，但仍低于长期平均水平（1987年至2025年的均 值为100点）。 根据INSEE此前统计，2025年第三季度，法国家庭储蓄率为18.4%，较上一季度的18.7%略有下降。 （文章来源：新华财经） 在该指数的构成指标中，衡量消费者储蓄意愿的指标为41点，较上月下降4点，但仍高于长期均值19 点。衡量消费者对当前及未来储蓄能力的两项指标，与上月相比基本保持稳定。 报告还显示，预期未来12个月物价将加速上涨的消费者比例有所上升，相关指标较上月上升3个百分 点，进一步偏离长期均值。 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The scale of stock - type ETFs in the domestic market continues to decline, with a significant reduction of 15 billion shares in broad - based ETFs in a single day. Large - cap index is dragged down by large - order pressing on multiple weight stocks at the end of the session. Meanwhile, the CSI 500 index rebounds after filling the gap, and long opportunities in IH and IC should be continuously monitored [2]. - Enterprises' profits are recovering. In 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size in China reached 7.4 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%, reversing the three - year decline trend. In December, the profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size changed from a 13.1% decline in November to a 5.3% increase [1]. - A - share major indices closed up in the spot market, with sector indices mostly falling. In the futures market, the basis of stock index futures rebounded, and the current - month contracts were all at a premium. The trading volume of stock index futures decreased, while the IM position increased [1]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Analysis - **Macro - economy**: In 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size in China was 7.4 trillion yuan, up 0.6% year - on - year. In December, the profit changed from a 13.1% decline in November to a 5.3% increase. Trump plans to raise the tariff on South Korean products from 15% to 25%. The US consumer confidence index in January dropped to 84.5, the lowest since 2014 [1]. - **Spot market**: A - share major indices closed up, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.18% to 4139.9 points and the ChiNext Index rising 0.71%. Sector indices mostly fell, with electronics, communication, and national defense and military industries leading the gains, and coal, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and steel industries leading the losses. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets decreased to 2.9 trillion yuan. US major indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 0.83% and the Nasdaq rising 0.91% [1]. - **Futures market**: The basis of stock index futures rebounded, and the current - month contracts were at a premium. The trading volume of stock index futures decreased, and the IM position increased [1]. Strategy - The scale of stock - type ETFs in the domestic market continues to decline. The share of broad - based ETFs decreased by 15 billion shares in a single day. Pay attention to long opportunities in IH and IC [2]. Charts - **Macro - economic charts**: Include relationships between the US dollar index, US Treasury yields, RMB exchange rate and A - share trends and styles [5][10][12][13]. - **Spot market tracking charts**: Show the daily performance of major domestic stock indices on January 27, 2026, including the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext Index, etc. [12]. - **Stock index futures tracking charts**: Provide information on the trading volume, position, basis, and inter - period spreads of stock index futures such as IF, IH, IC, and IM [14][37][41].

Group 1: Market Analysis - Trump's remarks caused the US dollar index to fall more than 1% to 95.7905, hitting a nearly four - year low. He also decided to raise tariffs on South Korean products from 15% to 25% [1] - The US consumer confidence index in January dropped 9.7 points to 84.5, the lowest since 2014, due to geopolitical tensions, high living costs, and trade wars [1] Group 2: Futures Quotes and Volumes - On January 27, 2026, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 1,145.94 yuan/gram and closed at 1,148.38 yuan/gram, a 0.44% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The overnight session closed at 1,142.00 yuan/gram, a 0.56% drop from the afternoon close [2] - The Shanghai silver main contract opened at 27,300.00 yuan/kg and closed at 28,300.00 yuan/kg, a 4.02% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 1,038,738 lots, and the open interest was 310,210 lots. The overnight session closed at 27,702 yuan/kg, a 2.11% drop from the afternoon close [2] Group 3: US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On January 27, 2026, the US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.24%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The 10 - year and 2 - year spread was 0.65%, a - 0.6BP change from the previous trading day [3] Group 4: Position and Volume Changes on SHFE - On the Au2604 contract, the long position changed by 5,015 lots, and the short position changed by 381 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts was 573,180 lots, a - 1.08% change from the previous trading day [4] - On the Ag2604 contract, the long position changed by - 10,773 lots, and the short position changed by - 6,800 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts was 2,534,159 lots, a 6.64% change from the previous trading day [4] Group 5: Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 1,086.53 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,974 tons, a decrease of 116 tons from the previous trading day [5] Group 6: Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On January 27, 2026, the domestic gold premium was 16.39 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was 863.14 yuan/kg [6] - The ratio of the main contracts of gold and silver on the SHFE was about 40.58, a - 3.44% change from the previous trading day. The overseas gold - silver ratio was 46.47, a - 3.71% change from the previous trading day [6] Group 7: Fundamental Data - On January 27, 2026, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 109,368 kg, a 32.01% change from the previous trading day. The silver trading volume was 627,160 kg, a - 10.69% change from the previous trading day [7] - The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 30 kg [7] Group 8: Strategy - Gold: Cautiously bullish. Due to increased market risk sentiment and a weaker US dollar index, gold investment demand may increase slightly. The Au2604 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1,120 yuan/gram and 1,170 yuan/gram [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish. After an overnight adjustment, silver prices may be relatively stronger than gold, and the gold - silver ratio is expected to narrow. The Ag2604 contract is expected to fluctuate between 27,500 yuan/kg and 30,000 yuan/kg [8][9] - Arbitrage: Short the gold - silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: Put on hold [9]

今日周三(1月28日)亚盘时段，白银期货目前交投于28943一线上方，今日开盘于28601元/千克，截至发 稿，白银期货暂报29211元/千克，上涨2.89%，最高触及29497元/千克，最低下探27018元/千克，目前来 看，白银期货盘内短线偏向看涨走势。 【最新白银期货行情解析】 【要闻速递】 沪银周期看涨不变，沪银溢价大幅扩大至4300元/克，国内情绪再升温。但银价上涨情绪依旧强劲，但 存在巨大回调风险，沪银在27000支撑上，沪银主力合约参考运行区间27000-30700区间。 尽管近期GDP增长强劲且支出数据亮眼，但消费者情绪依然低迷，这将加剧人们对美国经济成果未被均 匀分配的担忧。与此同时，美国总统特朗普正前往爱荷华州开启每周巡回演讲，旨在兜售其经济成就， 他此前一直难以让选民相信在他的领导下生活比前任拜登时期更好。 美国消费者信心已崩溃至十多年来的最弱水平，甚至跌破了疫情期间的低点，这加剧了人们对世界最大 经济体健康状况的担忧。 世界大型企业联合会的消费者信心指数1月份跌至84.5，远低于市场预期，创下自2014年5月以来的最低 值。"1月份信心崩塌，因为消费者对当前形势和未来预期的担忧都在加深 ...