Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Although the recent market risk appetite remains high and the US signals on tariff negotiations are optimistic, with the upcoming tariff deferral period in early August, gold is expected to gradually return to the safe - haven logic in the short term, but the rise may be slow due to the strong US economic data and the post - poned Fed rate - cut expectation to September. It is recommended to buy on dips. For silver, while the recovery of risk appetite benefits its industrial attributes, there is a risk of weakening in the medium - term real demand, so cautious chasing of gains is advised [4]. - In the medium - to - long term, considering the ongoing trade war, the probability of Fed rate cuts this year, global geopolitical uncertainties, intensified great - power games, and the trend of de - dollarization, the center of gravity of gold prices is likely to continue to move up [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Tracking of Precious Metals - **Precious Metal Prices**: On July 21, 2025, London gold spot was at $3367.28/ounce, London silver spot at $38.30/ounce, COMEX gold at $3374.80/ounce, and COMEX silver at $38.60/ounce. The prices of domestic gold and silver futures and spot also had corresponding values. Compared with July 18, the price of London gold spot increased by 0.8%, London silver spot decreased by 0.1%, etc. [3] - **Price Spreads and Ratios**: On July 21, 2025, the gold TD - SHFE active price spread was - 2.02 yuan/gram, and the silver TD - SHFE active price spread was - 14 yuan/kg. Compared with July 18, the changes in price spreads and ratios varied, such as the gold TD - SHFE active price spread increasing by 1.0% [3] 3.2 Position Data - **COMEX and ETF Positions**: As of July 15, 2025 (weekly data), for COMEX gold, non - commercial long positions were 270227 contracts, non - commercial short positions were 57112 contracts, and the net long position was 213115 contracts. For gold ETF - SPDR, the position on July 18 was 943.62 tons, a decrease of 0.51% compared with July 17 [3] - **Inventory Data**: On July 21, 2025, SHFE gold inventory was 28857 kg, with no change compared with July 18; SHFE silver inventory was 1204466 kg, a decrease of 0.55% compared with July 18 [3] 3.3 Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, and Stock Market Data - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: On July 21, 2025, the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 4.44%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 3.88%, the US dollar index was 98.46, etc. Compared with July 18, the 2 - year US Treasury yield increased by 0.03%, the US dollar index decreased by 0.18%, etc. [4] 3.4 Market News and Analysis - **Economic Data**: The preliminary value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in the US in July was 61.8, higher than the expected 61.5. The preliminary value of the 1 - year inflation expectation was 4.4%, lower than the expected 5% [4] - **Policy and Geopolitical News**: US President Trump is promoting a minimum tariff increase of 15% - 20% on all EU goods. The LDP in Japan suffered a historic defeat in the Senate election, but Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru said he would continue to govern [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant decline in the UK consumer confidence index, marking the first drop in nearly three years, attributed to increased concerns over job security and high inflation [1][2] - Deloitte's survey indicates that the consumer confidence index fell by 2.6 percentage points to 10.4% in Q2 2024, the lowest level since Q1 2024 [1] - Concerns over a slowing labor market are leading consumers to worry about job security and income growth, compounded by high inflation and living costs affecting attitudes towards personal debt [1] Group 2 - Companies are reportedly less willing to hire due to three main factors: increased employment taxes, higher minimum wages, and potential legal changes that would make it harder to dismiss new employees [1] - The unemployment rate in the UK rose to 4.7%, the highest level since 2021, while inflation in June reached 3.6%, the highest since January 2024 [1] - GfK's consumer sentiment survey presents a slightly different picture, showing a decline in consumer confidence in the latter half of last year, but a rebound to the highest level since December last month [1][2] Group 3 - Deloitte's survey involved 3,200 consumers conducted between June 13 and June 16, focusing on six key issues related to employment security, job opportunities, income, debt, children's welfare, and overall health and well-being [2] - Another economic survey indicated a 3.9 percentage point increase, although it remains 18.4 percentage points lower than a year ago [2] - Deloitte's chief economist noted that while economic activity has slowed in recent months, rising business confidence suggests resilience in the economy amid geopolitical uncertainties [2]

This Week's Key Focus - On July 21 at 09:15, the People's Bank of China is expected to announce that the 1-year LPR remains at 3.00% and the 5-year LPR at 3.50% [2][4] - On July 24 at 20:15, the European Central Bank will announce its interest rate decision, with an expected unchanged benchmark rate [2][15] - On July 25 at 20:30, the US Department of Commerce will release the preliminary value of June's durable goods orders [2] - On July 27 at 09:30, China's National Bureau of Statistics will announce June's industrial enterprise profits, with the previous value showing a 9.1% year-on-year decline and a 1.1% cumulative decline from January to May [2][19] - Other factors such as domestic macro - policy changes, international trade and tariff wars, international geopolitical situations, and speeches by US President Trump and Fed officials may impact the futures market [2] This Week's Hotspot Preview July 21 - At 10:00, the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on the achievements of building a transportation powerhouse during the '14th Five - Year Plan' [3] July 22 - At 15:00, the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on the first - half 2025 foreign exchange revenue and expenditure data [5] - At 20:30, Fed Chair Powell will give a welcome speech at a regulatory meeting, a rare 'live speech during the quiet period' [8] July 23 - At 22:00, the EU Statistics Bureau will release the preliminary value of the eurozone's July consumer confidence index, expected to be - 14.5 [9] - At 22:00, the US National Association of Realtors will announce June's existing home sales, with an expected annualized total of 4 million households and an annualized monthly rate of - 0.7%. Lower values may suppress non - ferrous metal futures prices [10] - At 22:30, the EIA will announce the change in US crude oil inventories for the week ending July 18. A continued decline may boost crude oil and related commodity futures [11] July 24 - At 9:30, the National Bureau of Statistics will announce the mid - July market prices of important production materials [12] - At 16:00, S&P Global will release the preliminary value of the eurozone's July SPGI manufacturing PMI, expected to be 49.8. A slight increase may slightly boost non - ferrous metal futures prices [13] - At 20:15, the European Central Bank will announce its interest rate decision, followed by a press conference by President Lagarde at 20:45 [15] - At 20:30, the US Department of Labor will announce the number of initial jobless claims for the week ending July 19, expected to be 215,000. A slight decrease may slightly boost non - gold and non - silver industrial product futures but suppress gold and silver futures [14] - At 21:45, S&P Global will release the preliminary value of the US July SPGI manufacturing PMI, expected to be 53.5. A slight increase may slightly boost non - ferrous metal futures prices [16] - At 22:00, the US Department of Commerce will announce June's new home sales, with an expected seasonally adjusted annualized total of 650,000 households and an annualized monthly rate of 4.3%. Higher values may boost non - ferrous metal futures prices but suppress gold and silver futures prices [17] July 25 - At 20:30, the US Department of Commerce will announce the preliminary monthly rate of June's durable goods orders, expected to be - 11%. A significant decrease may suppress non - ferrous metal futures but boost gold and silver futures [18] July 27 - At 09:30, China's National Bureau of Statistics will announce June's industrial enterprise profits [19]

Group 1 - The G20 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting was held in Durban, South Africa, where China's deputy finance minister stated that the country will implement a more proactive fiscal policy and expand high-level opening-up in the second half of the year [1] - The U.S. House of Representatives passed a defense appropriations bill for fiscal year 2026 totaling approximately $832 billion, which supports missile defense, weapon procurement, and research, including the development of the "Iron Dome" space-based missile defense system [1] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Becerra privately advised President Trump against firing Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, citing potential economic, political, and legal consequences, and mentioned that the Fed might lower interest rates twice before the end of the year [1] Group 2 - Japan's ruling coalition, consisting of the Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito, lost its majority in the House of Councillors during the 27th election, marking the first time since its establishment in 1955 that the LDP failed to secure a majority in both houses of the National Diet [2] - Japan's core CPI fell to 3.3% year-on-year in June, remaining above the central bank's target for 39 consecutive months, while the "core-core" CPI rose to 3.4% [5] Group 3 - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.32% to 44,342.19 points, while the S&P 500 index decreased by 0.01% to 6,296.79 points; the Nasdaq Composite Index rose by 0.05% to 20,895.66 points, marking its fifth consecutive increase and a new historical high [6] - COMEX gold futures fell by 0.25% to $3,355.50 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures dropped by 1.36% to $38.43 per ounce [7] - U.S. oil futures fell by 3.54% to $66.03 per barrel, while Brent crude oil futures decreased by 1.61% to $69.23 per barrel [8]

Group 1 - The consumer confidence index in the U.S. rose to 61.8 in July, the highest level in nearly five months, reflecting a 1.8% increase from June's 60.7, but a 6.9% decrease year-over-year [1][2] - The index for current conditions increased to 66.8, up 3.1% month-over-month and 6.5% year-over-year, while the future expectations index rose to 58.6%, a 0.9% increase month-over-month but a 14.8% decrease year-over-year [1] - Consumer inflation expectations for the next year decreased to 4.4%, down 0.6 percentage points from June, and for the next five years, it fell to 3.6%, down 0.4 percentage points, marking the lowest expectations since February [1] Group 2 - Despite the increase in consumer confidence, it remains 16% lower than the December figures and significantly below historical averages, indicating ongoing concerns about inflation and economic stability [2] - The report suggests that consumer confidence is contingent on stable future inflation conditions, with external factors like trade policies playing a crucial role [2] - Recent government policies, such as the "big and beautiful" tax and spending bill, have had minimal impact on consumer confidence, highlighting the complexity of consumer sentiment in relation to policy changes [2]

Core Insights - The preliminary data from the University of Michigan indicates that the U.S. consumer confidence index rose to its highest level in five months, reaching 61.8 in July, up from 60.7 in June, although it remains below most levels from the previous year [1] - Inflation expectations have decreased, with respondents anticipating a 4.4% increase in prices over the next year, down from 5% the previous month, marking the lowest level since February [1] - Concerns about the economic outlook persist, particularly regarding uncertainties related to tariffs, which continue to limit overall optimism [1] Consumer Sentiment - The current conditions index increased from 64.8 to 66.8, while the expectations index slightly rose to 58.6, driven mainly by improved sentiment among Republican supporters and independent voters [2] - The recent rise in consumer confidence may reflect a perception that the worst-case scenarios feared in April and May have eased [1][2] - Consumers' views on their financial situation have improved, potentially influenced by a rising stock market [1]

Group 1 - The yield on U.S. Treasury bonds slightly declined after the release of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index [1] - The 10-year Treasury yield fell by 3.3 basis points to 4.43% [1] - The 2-year Treasury yield decreased by 4.2 basis points to 3.875% [1]

Group 1 - The preliminary consumer confidence index for July from the University of Michigan is reported at 61.8, which exceeds the expected value of 61.5 and is an increase from the previous value of 60.7 [1]

Group 1 - The University of Michigan's Consumer Confidence Index for July is set to be released shortly, along with the preliminary one-year inflation expectations [1]

Group 1 - Silver futures are currently trading above 9204, with an opening price of 9110 and a current price of 9213, reflecting a 0.70% increase [1] - The highest price reached today is 9244, while the lowest is 9095, indicating a short-term bullish trend in silver futures [1] - The analysis suggests that silver will benefit more than gold from the anticipated easing of monetary policy, with a recommended trading range for the main silver contract set between 9020 and 10000 per kilogram [4] Group 2 - AMP's chief economist Shane Oliver indicates that Australia's unemployment rate has risen to its highest level since the pandemic, supporting the view that the Reserve Bank of Australia should lower interest rates [3] - The basic forecast from AMP predicts rate cuts in August, November, February, and May of the following year, with the potential for quicker policy easing due to weak employment data [3] - The initial consumer confidence index for July from the University of Michigan is expected to rise to 61.5 from June's final value of 60.7, with inflation expectations also being closely monitored [3]