Core Viewpoint - Hubei Energy (000883) reported an increase in electricity generation for June 2025, with a total of 3.649 billion kilowatt-hours, representing a year-on-year increase of 14.68% [1] Summary by Category Electricity Generation Performance - The company's electricity generation for the year-to-date totaled 20.456 billion kilowatt-hours, showing a year-on-year decrease of 2.47% [1] - In June 2025, hydropower generation increased significantly by 106.98% year-on-year, while thermal power generation decreased by 25.23% [1] - New energy generation saw a year-on-year increase of 69.55% in June 2025 [1] Year-to-Date Performance Breakdown - Year-to-date hydropower generation decreased by 34.10% year-on-year [1] - Year-to-date thermal power generation increased by 3.00% year-on-year [1] - Year-to-date new energy generation increased by 53.84% year-on-year [1]

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Market Overview - The A-share market showed mixed performance today, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.32% to close at 3472.32 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.25% to 10508.76 points. The ChiNext Index decreased by 0.36% to 2156.32 points [1] - Overall, there were 4118 stocks that declined, 1169 that increased, and 129 that remained unchanged across the market. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 14285 billion yuan, an increase of 1188.11 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Industry Performance - Among the Shenwan first-level industries, sectors such as banking, media, comprehensive services, public utilities, steel, and coal led the gains, while industries like beauty care, non-ferrous metals, basic chemicals, light manufacturing, environmental protection, and machinery equipment experienced declines [1] Sector Highlights - The top-performing concept sectors today included cross-border payments, central enterprise banks, digital currency, hydropower, selected banks, vitamins, financial technology, thermal power, and selected electric power stocks. Other notable sectors were "East Data West Calculation," innovative drugs, semiconductor equipment, biotechnology, and online gaming [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The environmental and public utility sectors experienced declines, with the environmental index down 2.51% and the public utility index down 1.13%. The power sector specifically saw a 1.31% drop, while the gas sector increased by 0.69% [6][31] - As of June 20, 2025, the price of Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal thermal coal has dropped to 620 CNY/ton, marking a relative low since 2022. The performance of thermal power companies varies significantly based on their geographic location and demand for electricity [6][10] - The report highlights a shift in electricity generation, with thermal power generation increasing to 4614.6 billion kWh in May, a year-on-year increase of 1.2%, while hydropower generation decreased by 14.3% [10][21] Summary by Sections Key Event Interpretations - In May, total electricity generation reached 7377.6 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 0.5%, with thermal power generation showing a recovery [10][21] - The overall electricity consumption in May was 8096 billion kWh, up 4.4% year-on-year, with a notable decline in the growth rate of electricity consumption in the secondary industry [21] Market Performance Review - The environmental sector has seen a cumulative increase of 3.34% since the beginning of 2025, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 indices [6][31] - The report details the performance of various sub-sectors, with thermal power down 1.31% and nuclear power showing a slight increase of 0.15% [31][37] Key Data Tracking - The report tracks coal prices, noting that the price of Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal thermal coal remains low, with significant declines from previous highs [46] - It also monitors water reservoir levels, with the Three Gorges Reservoir showing a water level of 149.13 meters as of June 20, 2025, a year-on-year increase of 0.3% [48] Industry Key Events - The report discusses recent government initiatives aimed at promoting renewable energy and improving energy efficiency, including financial support for renewable energy projects [78]

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Overweight" [1][4] Core Insights - Northern thermal power shows resilience with significant profit growth, while hydropower maintains stable performance. Green energy faces pressure on earnings due to dual impacts of wind conditions and electricity prices, while nuclear power's profitability is affected by electricity pricing [1][2][4] Summary by Sections Northern Thermal Power - The report highlights that the profitability of northern thermal power plants is growing faster than that of southern plants, with a median net profit growth rate of 8% for national thermal power companies in Q1 2025. The median PE ratios for thermal power companies have decreased from 15.7 in Q1 2023 to 10.4 in Q1 2025, indicating a declining market focus on this sector [8][10][9] - The report anticipates a recovery in thermal power performance in Q2 2025 following a significant drop in electricity generation in Q1 2025 due to a warm winter [10][14] Hydropower - Hydropower companies have shown strong earnings growth, with a median net profit growth rate of 26% in Q1 2025, driven by optimized water storage and scheduling. The median PE ratios for hydropower companies have fluctuated, reaching 18.8 in Q1 2024 before slightly declining to 18.1 in Q1 2025 [19][20][22] - The report notes that the El Niño phenomenon is expected to positively influence water inflow during the main flood season in 2024, while the situation for 2025 remains uncertain as the climate shifts to a La Niña phase [19][20] Green Energy - Green energy companies are experiencing a decline in net profit growth, with median growth rates of -12% in 2024 and -4% in Q1 2025. The sector is facing challenges from falling electricity prices and poor wind conditions, leading to a situation where revenue is increasing but profits are not [2][4] - The report predicts a recovery in green energy performance in 2025, with an expected median net profit growth rate of around 12% as wind utilization hours improve [2][4] Nuclear Power - The nuclear power sector is experiencing mixed performance, with major companies like China Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power facing different challenges. The report indicates that profitability for China Nuclear Power is expected to decline significantly in 2024 due to accounting policy changes and tax implications, while China General Nuclear Power's profits are only slightly increasing despite new capacity coming online [2][4][5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the electricity sector [4] Core Views - The electricity sector is experiencing differentiated growth in thermal power, significant improvement in hydropower, and pressure on green energy [3][6] - The overall performance of the electricity sector is expected to continue growing, supported by falling fuel costs and potential recovery in electricity demand [3][6] Summary by Sections Market Review - In Q1 2025, the total electricity consumption reached 2.38 trillion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%. The industrial power generation decreased by 0.3% year-on-year [10] - The generation from thermal, hydropower, nuclear, solar, and wind sources changed by -4.7%, +5.9%, +12.8%, +19.5%, and +9.3% respectively [10] - Coal prices have significantly decreased, with the Q1 average price for North Port Q5500 at 733 RMB/ton, down 19.2% year-on-year [18] Performance Overview - In 2024, thermal power companies achieved a net profit of 646 billion RMB, up 31.91% year-on-year, while hydropower companies reported a net profit of 563 billion RMB, up 17.31% [2] - In Q1 2025, the electricity sector's total revenue was 464.6 billion RMB, a decrease of 3.96% year-on-year, but the net profit increased by 7.83% year-on-year to 50.7 billion RMB [3][27] Fund Holdings - As of Q1 2025, the proportion of active funds in the electricity and public utilities sector decreased to 1.37%, down 0.55 percentage points from Q4 2024 [32] - The combined holdings of both active and index funds in the sector stood at 2.02% in Q1 2025, reflecting a downward trend [32][33] Investment Recommendations - Focus on thermal power companies with strong profitability and low electricity price risks, such as Huadian International and Huaneng International [6] - Long-term investment potential is seen in hydropower and nuclear power assets due to their high dividend yields and stable performance [6] - Attention is also recommended for green energy sectors as trading and consumption issues are expected to improve [6]

Summary of the Conference Call for Jingneng Power Company Overview - **Company**: Jingneng Power - **Industry**: Power Generation, specifically focusing on thermal and renewable energy Key Points and Arguments Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported a total profit increase of 770 million yuan, with the thermal power segment contributing at least 570 million yuan, indicating that thermal power remains the main driver of profit growth [2][10] - The overall revenue from the new energy sector reached nearly 400 million yuan, with profits exceeding 200 million yuan, showing significant year-on-year growth [2][8] - The profit from the new energy segment in Q1 2025 was 200 million yuan, a substantial increase compared to the previous year, primarily due to the performance of newly commissioned wind power projects [2][9] Power Generation and Pricing - The long-term contract electricity volume for 2025 was 75 billion kWh, accounting for less than 80% of total electricity volume, with the settlement price for thermal power increasing year-on-year despite a decrease in utilization hours by approximately 100 hours [2][4] - The average price of standard coal for power generation decreased by 3.9% in 2024, with a more significant decline of over 10% in Q1 2025 [3] - The overall electricity price increased by approximately 5% in Q1 2025, with notable increases in regions such as Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, and Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan [2][19] New Energy Development - The company added 130,000 kW of solar power capacity in Q1 2025, contributing to a significant increase in overall installed capacity, particularly in the new energy sector [2][7] - Plans for 2025 include adding 1.7167 million kW of new energy capacity, with projects expected to be commissioned within the year, although specific timelines are pending due to preliminary procedures [2][11] Coal Procurement Strategy - The company maintains a coal procurement strategy primarily based on long-term contracts, with approximately 90% of coal sourced through this method in the previous year [2][5][17] - The long-term contract prices vary by region and supplier, but the company has improved its bargaining power due to increased pricing capabilities on the generation side [2][18] Dividend Policy - The company has committed to a dividend payout ratio of no less than 70% of the distributable profits for the years 2023 to 2025, with the actual payout ratio exceeding 70% in 2024 [2][13][14][22] Market Outlook - The future trajectory of coal prices remains uncertain due to the highly market-driven nature of the coal market, although the company aims to manage market fluctuations through long-term contracts [2][16] - The sustainability of the electricity price increase will depend on various factors, including coal market conditions and electricity market policies [2][24] Other Notable Information - The company’s asset-liability ratio was below 65% in 2024 and remains under 65% in Q1 2025, indicating a stable financial position despite ongoing investments in new energy projects [2][25] - The company is currently in the preliminary stages for the expansion of the Zhuozhou Thermal Power Phase II project and the flexibility transformation project in Inner Mongolia, with plans to commence construction soon [2][20]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price expected to yield over 20% relative return within six months [5][17]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 14.563 billion yuan in 2024, a slight decrease of 0.90% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 6.47% to 2.793 billion yuan [3][4]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of no less than 10% of the net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders for the first half of 2025 [1]. - The company has made significant progress in project planning, which lays a foundation for sustainable development, including the approval of multiple power generation projects [2]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company's revenue was 145.63 billion yuan, with a decline in thermal power revenue by 4.45% to 77.55 billion yuan, while wind power revenue increased by 10.33% to 37.92 billion yuan [3]. - The gross profit margin improved to 26.6%, up 2.7 percentage points year-on-year, driven by increased wind power utilization hours [3]. - For Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 30.97 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.31%, and a net profit of 7.52 billion yuan, reflecting a significant growth of 42.83% [4]. Future Earnings Forecast - The company has adjusted its earnings forecast for 2025-2026, now expecting net profits of 3 billion yuan and 3.2 billion yuan respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 at 3.7 billion yuan [4]. - The projected price-to-earnings ratios for 2025-2027 are 9, 8, and 7 times respectively [4]. Key Financial Metrics - The company’s total installed capacity reached 6.096 million kilowatts by the end of 2024 [2]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected at 1.00 yuan, with a growth rate of 6.54% expected for 2025 [4][12]. - The company’s asset-liability ratio stands at 37.78% [6]. Market Position - The company operates in the public utility and power generation sector, with a focus on sustainable energy projects [5]. - The current market capitalization is approximately 26.97 billion yuan [6].

Investment Rating - Maintain "Buy" rating for the industry [10] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a mixed performance across various sectors within the public utility and environmental protection industry, with coal prices declining and water supply improving, reshaping the defensive value of water and coal [3] - The overall electricity consumption growth slowed down due to a warm winter and high base effects from the previous year, impacting thermal power generation negatively [4][29] - The renewable energy sector faces profit pressure due to declining utilization rates and electricity prices, despite significant installed capacity growth [4][52] - Hydropower benefits from improved water supply and reservoir management, leading to increased revenue and profit in early 2025 [5][7] - The environmental sector shows stable performance in water and solid waste operations, with a recovery in water profitability in early 2025 [5][6] Summary by Sections 1. Overview of 2024 Reports and 2025 Q1 - The electricity industry saw a 6.7% growth in consumption in 2024, driven by structural optimization and rising demand for new energy sources [16] - The environmental sector experienced a revenue decline of 2.7% and a net profit drop of 31% in 2024, with operational efficiency improvements in existing assets [16] 2. Sector Performance from 2024 to Q1 2025 2.1 Thermal Power - Thermal power generation faced pressure from electricity prices and demand, but benefited from lower coal prices, leading to a net profit increase of 6.5% in Q1 2025 [4][36][37] 2.2 Renewable Energy - The renewable energy sector's profit was under pressure due to declining utilization rates and electricity prices, despite a 15.7% increase in wind power generation in 2024 [4][52] 2.3 Hydropower - Hydropower generation increased by 11.7% in 2024, with a significant profit increase in Q1 2025 due to improved water supply [5][7] 2.4 Environmental Protection - The environmental sector showed stable performance in water and solid waste operations, with a recovery in profitability in early 2025 [5][6] 3. Key Companies in the Sector - Focus on leading companies in thermal power, hydropower, and nuclear power, such as Huadian International, Yangtze Power, and China Nuclear Power, respectively [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 5.23 RMB [7][4]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 35.428 billion RMB for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 6.54%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.723 billion RMB, up 95.52% from the previous year, exceeding expectations [1]. - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 9.885 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 4.59%, and a net profit of 1.063 billion RMB, up 129.84%, driven by lower coal prices and increased revenue from renewable energy [1]. - The company plans to continue expanding its renewable energy capacity, with a projected increase in installed capacity and ongoing projects [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company’s revenue for 2024 is projected at 35.428 billion RMB, with a growth rate of 7.76% for 2025 [6]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 4.080 billion RMB in 2025, reflecting a significant growth of 136.75% compared to 2024 [6]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 0.61 RMB for 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 13.61% [6]. Operational Highlights - The company’s thermal power generation volume increased by 5% in 2024, with a total installed capacity of 21.39 million kW, an increase of 1.61 million kW year-on-year [2]. - The average electricity price for thermal power remained stable at 360 RMB per MWh, with a decrease in fuel costs by 3.9% [2]. - Renewable energy generation saw a significant increase, with a year-on-year growth of 322% in 2024, driven by new projects coming online [3]. Valuation Metrics - The target price of 5.23 RMB corresponds to a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 1.11x for 2025, which is above the industry average of 1.07x [4]. - The company’s projected net profit compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2025 to 2027 is 43%, significantly higher than the industry average of 12% [4].