华 金 期 货 生 猪 周 报 华金期货 研究院 2025/5/19 | | | 5/9 | 5/16 | 周涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 备注 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 生猪期货 | LH2507 | 13495 | 13405 | -90 | -0.7% | | | | LH2509 | 13925 | 13660 | -265 | -1.9% | 主力合约 | | | LH2511 | 13625 | 13420 | -205 | -1.5% | | | 现货价格 | 全国 | 14.74 | 14.56 | -0.18 | -1.2% | | | | 河南 | 15.07 | 14.9 | -0.17 | -1.1% | 交割基准区域 | 数据来源&制图：文华财经、钢联、华金期货 | | | | 生猪周度汇总 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货数据 | | 收盘价 | 周涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 备注 | | 生猪 | LH2507 | 13405 | -90 | -0.7% | | ...

Core Viewpoint - The live pig market is experiencing a prolonged period of low prices due to an oversupply and weak terminal demand, with expectations of continued price declines into 2025 [1][5]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - As of May 9, the average price of live pigs in the mainstream market is 14.78 yuan/kg, down 1.54 yuan/kg from the beginning of the year, indicating a weak price trend [1]. - The slaughtering rate has decreased to 34.53%, down 1.05 percentage points from before the Labor Day holiday, reflecting a return to normal demand levels post-holiday [2]. - The daily slaughter volume tracked by 134 pig slaughtering enterprises is at its highest level since 2019, while frozen product inventory rates have increased to 18.93%, suggesting continued supply pressure [3]. Price Trends and Market Sentiment - The price of piglets has also declined, with the average price for 7 kg three-way cross piglets at 537.78 yuan/head, down 13.05 yuan/head from April's peak, indicating reduced market activity [4]. - The overall supply pressure in the live pig market is expected to limit the willingness to replenish stocks, leading to further declines in piglet prices [5]. Breeding Stock and Future Projections - The number of breeding sows has shown a slight decrease, with 40.39 million reported in March 2025, down 0.66% from previous months, which may lead to a decline in live pig output starting in late 2025 [6]. - The average slaughter weight of pigs has increased to 126.51 kg/head, up 4.28 kg/head from January's low, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics if secondary fattening operations increase [7]. Profitability and Market Outlook - Despite the decline in live pig prices, breeding profits remain positive, with profits for self-breeding at 226 yuan/head, down 152 yuan/head from the start of the year, suggesting that the industry has not yet faced significant losses [8]. - The expectation is for continued weak prices in the short to medium term, with potential for a turnaround in the third quarter if breeding capacity continues to decrease [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand situation of the pig market is expected to shift from short - term relative balance to looser, and the price is predicted to fluctuate weakly. The short - term supply pressure is moderate, but there is potential phased supply pressure, and the demand is cooling. It is recommended to hold short positions cautiously and set stop - losses [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Review**: The pig price fluctuated and adjusted, with the main contract rising 0.11% weekly [6][11]. - **Market Outlook**: On the supply side, the post - festival slaughter rhythm of farmers is slow, and the slaughter weight remains stable. However, the price of fat pigs is lower than that of standard pigs, increasing the risk of secondary fattening and weakening the enthusiasm for entry. The pressure from the postponed supply may gradually appear after mid - to late May. According to the pig breeding cycle, the sow production capacity is in an increasing cycle in the second and third quarters, and the medium - term supply pressure is increasing. On the demand side, the post - festival terminal demand declines, the sales speed of white - striped pigs slows down again, the slaughterhouse operating rate decreases, and there are still passive inventory - building phenomena in a few areas. Overall, the short - term supply pressure is general, but the potential phased supply pressure exists, and the demand cools down [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions cautiously and set stop - losses [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1 Futures Market - **Price Movement**: The futures fluctuated and adjusted this week, and the main contract rose 0.11% weekly [8][11]. - **Net Position and Warehouse Receipts**: The net short position in futures decreased, and there were 705 futures warehouse receipts [13]. 3.2.2 Spot Market - **Pig and Piglet Prices**: The national average pig price this week was 14.94 yuan/kg, down 0.01 yuan/kg from last week and 0.47% from last month. The average price of 15 - kg weaned piglets was 40.90 yuan/kg, unchanged from last week and last month [28]. - **Pork and Breeding Sow Prices**: As of April 30th, the national average pork price was 26.02 yuan/kg, down 0.08 yuan/kg from the previous week. The average market price of binary sows this week was 32.52 yuan/kg, up 0.01 yuan/kg from the previous week [33]. - **Pig - Grain Ratio**: As of the week of April 23, 2025, the pig - grain ratio was 6.68, down 0.03 from the previous week [38]. 3.3 Industry Situation 3.3.1 Upstream Situation - **Sow Inventory**: In March 2025, the inventory of reproductive sows was 40.39 million, a decrease of 270,000 from the previous month and an increase of 1.17% year - on - year, equivalent to 103.6% of the normal inventory. In April, according to Mysteel data, the inventory of reproductive sows in large - scale farms increased slightly by 0.36% month - on - month and 4.31% year - on - year, and that in small and medium - sized farms increased by 1.61% month - on - month and 10.15% year - on - year [43]. - **Pig Inventory**: In Q1 2023, the national pig inventory was 417.31 million. In April, according to Mysteel data, the inventory of commercial pigs in large - scale farms increased by 0.10% month - on - month and 6.28% year - on - year, while that in small and medium - sized farms decreased by 0.91% month - on - month but increased by 10.98% year - on - year [46]. - **Slaughter Volume and Weight**: In April, the slaughter volume of commercial pigs in large - scale farms increased by 4.46% month - on - month and 26.58% year - on - year, and that in small and medium - sized farms increased by 4.09% month - on - month and 74.89% year - on - year. The average slaughter weight remained unchanged from last week [49]. 3.3.2 Industry Profit - **Pig Breeding Profit**: As of May 9th, the breeding profit of purchased piglets was 58.46 yuan/head, an increase of 9.92 yuan/head from the previous week, and the breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised pigs was 84.33 yuan/head, a decrease of 0.71 yuan/head from the previous week [54]. - **Poultry Breeding Profit**: As of May 9th, the poultry breeding profit was - 0.30 yuan/head, and the weekly loss increased by 0.15 yuan/head [54]. 3.3.3 Domestic Market - **Pork Imports**: From January to March 2025, China imported 280,000 tons of pork, a year - on - year increase of 7.69%, but it was at a historically low level [59]. 3.3.4 Substitute Products - **White - Striped Chicken Price**: As of the week of May 9th, the price of white - striped chicken was 13.7 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.1 yuan/kg from the previous week [62]. - **Standard - Fat Pig Price Difference**: As of the week of May 8th, the average price difference between standard and fat pigs was 0.03 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.02 yuan/kg from the previous week [62]. 3.3.5 Feed Situation - **Feed Ingredient Prices**: As of May 8th, the spot price of soybean meal was 3,358.29 yuan/ton, a decrease of 186.28 yuan/ton from the previous week. As of May 9th, the corn price was 2,363.14 yuan/ton, an increase of 49.61 yuan/ton from the previous week [68]. - **Feed Index and Price**: As of May 9th, the closing price of the Dalian Commodity Exchange pig feed cost index was 948.95, a decrease of 0.26% from the previous week. The price of finishing pig compound feed was 3.37 yuan/kg, remaining unchanged from the previous week [72]. - **Feed Production**: As of March 2025, the monthly feed production was 27.772 million tons, an increase of 1.428 million tons year - on - year [76]. 3.3.6 CPI - As of March 2025, China's CPI decreased by 0.1% year - on - year, and the decline narrowed by 0.6 percentage points compared with the previous month [80]. 3.3.7 Downstream Situation - **Slaughterhouse Operating Rate and Inventory**: In the 19th week, the slaughterhouse operating rate was 28.54%, a decrease of 0.41 percentage points from the previous week and an increase of 0.35 percentage points year - on - year. The frozen product storage rate of key slaughterhouses remained unchanged from the previous week [83]. - **Slaughter Volume and Catering Consumption**: As of March 2025, the slaughter volume of designated pig slaughterhouses was 30.63 million, an increase of 40.7% from the previous month. In March 2025, the national catering revenue was 423.55 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.6% [88]. 3.3.8 Pig - Related Stocks - The report mentions the stock trends of Muyuan Co., Ltd. and Wens Co., Ltd., but no specific data is provided [89].

Report Information - Report Name: Huajin Futures Weekly Report on Live Pigs [1] - Report Date: April 28, 2025 [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Core View - In the short - term, the live pig market is relatively stable with a slight increase in demand, and the pig price will mainly show a consolidation trend. As the May Day holiday starts on Thursday this week, short - term operations are recommended [3] Section Summaries 1. Live Pig Futures and Spot Prices - Futures: LH2507 closed at 13,540, down 120 (-0.9%); LH2509 (the main contract) closed at 14,150, down 315 (-2.2%); LH2511 closed at 13,795, down 215 (-1.5%) [3][4] - Spot: The national average commodity pig出栏 price was 14.87 yuan/kg, down 0.03 yuan/kg (-0.2%); in Henan (the delivery benchmark area), it was 15.07 yuan/kg, down 0.06 yuan/kg (-0.4%) [3][4] 2. Inter - month Spreads, Basis and Warehouse Receipts - Spreads: The 2509 - 2507 spread was 610, down 195; the 2511 - 2509 spread was - 355, up 100 [9] - Basis: The basis for July was 1530, up 60; for September, it was 920, up 255 [9] - Warehouse Receipts: The number of live pig warehouse receipts was 665, an increase of 440 [3][9] 3. Inventory and Inventory Structure - Piglets: The average price of weaned piglets was 523.81 yuan/head, down 0.95 yuan/head from last week. The market had stable rigid demand, and the price was supported [18] - Sows: The average market price of 50KG binary sows was 1641 yuan/head, unchanged from last week. The domestic inventory of reproductive sows was expected to be stable with minor fluctuations [18] - Commodity Pigs: The inventory of commodity pigs in April was expected to continue to increase month - on - month due to capacity recovery [18] 4. Standard - Fat Pig Price Spread - National Average: The weekly average national standard - fat pig price spread was 0.01 yuan/kg. Secondary fattening groups continued to enter the market, but the demand for fat pigs weakened as the weather warmed up [24] - Key Markets: In key markets, the standard - fat pig price spread increased in most regions, such as 0.21 in Liaoning and 0.24 in Hebei [23] 5. Slaughter End - Slaughter Rate: The national average slaughter enterprise开工 rate was 27.19%, up 0.35 percentage points. Due to secondary fattening diverting some standard pig resources, slaughter enterprises increased prices to ensure the slaughter volume [27] - Fresh Sales Rate: The fresh sales rate of key slaughter enterprises was 88.1%, down 0.05 percentage points [27] - Cold Storage Rate: The cold storage rate of key domestic slaughter enterprises was 17.45%, up 0.04 percentage points. Some regions had low fresh product sales and were forced to store in cold storage [27] 6. White - Striped Pork and Wholesale Markets - White - Striped Pork Price: The price of the top three grades of white - striped pork fluctuated [29] - Gross - White Price Spread: The gross - white price spread was 4.12 yuan/kg, down [3] 7. Profit and Cost - Self - Breeding and Self - Raising: The weekly average profit was 145.34 yuan/head, down 0.95 yuan/head from last week [35] - Purchasing Piglets: The weekly average profit was 58.80 yuan/head, down 1.39 yuan/head from last week. The increase in feed raw material prices squeezed the profit margins [35] 8. Market Information Summary - Supply: Large - scale farms had normal slaughter volumes, high slaughter weights, and concentrated slaughter by small - scale farmers, resulting in sufficient market supply [38] - Demand: Secondary fattening continued to enter the market, and the May Day holiday备货 supported short - term demand [38] - Cold Storage: Slaughter enterprises had low cold storage capacity, and the cold storage rate was expected to increase later [38] - Policy: The "Administrative Measures for the License of Breeding Livestock and Poultry Production and Operation" will be implemented on July 1, 2025. The increase in import tariffs on US goods was short - term positive for pig prices [38] - Epidemic: There were sporadic epidemic situations in some southern regions, and the southwest was about to enter the traditional epidemic - prone season [38] - Market Sentiment: The market sentiment was relatively neutral due to the fluctuating pig prices [38]