限量发售掀抢购潮 8月3日，由泡泡玛特主办的2025PTS北京国际潮流玩具展迎来收官，旗下LABUBU、MOLLY、星星人 等标志性IP悉数亮相，吸引众多观众驻足互动，现场气氛热烈，更有海外粉丝专程前来打卡，再次印证 了泡泡玛特作为中国潮玩领军品牌的全球影响力。 火爆背后，是泡泡玛特面临的产能挑战。泡泡玛特创始人王宁近日在接受央视采访时的一句调侃"我们 的缝纫机都踩冒烟了"，生动道出了当前产品供不应求的甜蜜烦恼。究竟有多火？为何如此紧俏？黄牛 如何搅局？假货问题何解？资本如何反应？带着种种疑问，证券时报记者展开了调查。 黄牛大行其道 眼下正值暑假，各大潮玩门店都迎来了学生客流高峰。有泡泡玛特门店工作人员向记者表示，店内暑假 人流会更旺一些，"如果是跟着家长来的，出手会更'阔绰'一些，家长一般都愿意花几十上百来满足孩 子的心愿"。 值得注意的是，作为泡泡玛特旗下"当红炸子鸡"的LABUBU，虽然被摆在"C位"，但在门店内并不能直 接购买。店员表示，消费者若想购买，需自行通过线上抢购，抢购成功后可到店取货。泡泡玛特于6月 中下旬起对LABUBU 3.0前方高能系列开启线上预售，泡泡玛特微信小程序、支付宝小程序、抖 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the booming popularity of Pop Mart's products, particularly the LABUBU series, amidst challenges related to supply capacity and the rise of counterfeit goods in the market [1][9]. Group 1: Market Demand and Sales Dynamics - The summer season has seen a surge in customer traffic at Pop Mart stores, particularly among students, leading to increased spending by parents [2]. - LABUBU products are not available for direct purchase in stores; instead, customers must participate in online flash sales, which have proven to be highly competitive and difficult to navigate [2][3]. - The combination of high market demand and limited online purchasing opportunities has led to the emergence of scalpers, who quickly buy up stock and resell it at a premium [3][4]. Group 2: Counterfeit Goods and Market Challenges - The proliferation of counterfeit products has become a significant issue, with some sellers openly advertising fake items, while others create convincing replicas that are sold at high prices [6][8]. - Pop Mart has faced challenges in combating counterfeit goods due to the vast number of third-party sales channels and the rapid emergence of unauthorized sellers [8]. - The company has issued warnings about the risks associated with purchasing from unofficial channels, emphasizing the difficulty in verifying product authenticity [8]. Group 3: Financial Performance and Market Outlook - Pop Mart's strong sales performance has led to a dramatic increase in revenue and profit forecasts, with expected revenue growth of at least 200% and net profit growth of at least 350% for the first half of 2025 [9]. - The company's stock price has seen significant appreciation, reaching a historical high of 283.4 HKD, with a market capitalization that briefly surpassed 380 billion HKD [9]. - Analysts remain optimistic about Pop Mart's long-term growth potential, citing its robust retail business model and competitive advantages in the market [9][11].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the booming popularity of Pop Mart's products, particularly the LABUBU series, which has led to significant supply challenges and the emergence of a secondary market driven by scalpers and counterfeit goods [2][3][4][5]. Group 1: Market Demand and Sales Dynamics - The summer season has seen a surge in foot traffic at Pop Mart stores, particularly among students, with parents willing to spend significantly on trendy toys [3]. - LABUBU products are not directly available for purchase in stores; instead, customers must participate in online flash sales, which have proven extremely competitive, often selling out in seconds [3][4]. - The combination of high demand and limited online availability has facilitated the rise of scalpers, who quickly buy up stock and resell it at a premium [4][5]. Group 2: Scalper and Counterfeit Issues - The scalper market has become a significant issue, with dedicated groups on social media facilitating the rapid resale of Pop Mart products, often within minutes of restocking [4][5]. - A new gray market has emerged, where individuals charge fees for real-time restock notifications, exploiting the high demand for limited-edition items [4]. - Counterfeit products have proliferated, with some sellers openly advertising fake items at lower prices, while others misrepresent counterfeit goods as authentic [6][8]. Group 3: Company Performance and Valuation - Pop Mart's strong sales performance has led to explosive growth in revenue and profit, with a projected revenue increase of at least 200% and net profit growth of at least 350% for the first half of 2025 [10]. - The company's stock price has seen significant appreciation, reaching a historical high of 283.4 HKD, with a market capitalization exceeding 380 billion HKD [10]. - Analysts remain optimistic about Pop Mart's long-term prospects, citing its robust retail business model and competitive advantages in the market [10][12]. Group 4: Future Challenges and Opportunities - Despite the positive outlook, the volatility of Pop Mart's stock price is a concern, driven by the unpredictable nature of popular IP products and their limited lifecycles [11]. - The company is seen as a potential leader in the global IP market, with opportunities to enhance its content production capabilities and expand its brand internationally [11]. - Ongoing efforts to combat counterfeit goods and improve consumer trust are critical for maintaining brand integrity and market position [6][8].

Core Insights - LABUBU's global popularity has positioned PopMart in the spotlight, with the IP expected to reach phenomenal popularity by 2025, becoming a sought-after collectible among fans [1] - The founder of PopMart, Wang Ning, shared insights on the core themes of the trendy toy industry during a deep interview with CCTV News, highlighting the transformation of Chinese cultural consumer brands in the global market [2][4] Company Development - Wang Ning's journey reflects the spirit of PopMart, showcasing his dual role as an industry observer and pioneer, revealing the challenges and opportunities faced by Chinese brands in the global landscape [4][5] - Wang Ning's early experiences in his family's small business laid the foundation for his understanding of commerce, which he later applied to his entrepreneurial ventures [8][9] - After facing initial struggles with PopMart's concept of trendy toys, Wang Ning pivoted to create a platform called Taohuo.com to connect manufacturers and retailers, which eventually led to securing angel investment [13][14] IP Strategy - In 2014, Wang Ning recognized the importance of exclusive IP and successfully acquired the rights to the popular Sonny Angel toy in China, which significantly contributed to PopMart's revenue [16][20] - The introduction of the Molly IP marked a turning point for PopMart, allowing the company to transition from a simple retailer to a brand operator with core IP assets [20][21] Market Expansion - PopMart's successful launch of the Molly zodiac series blind boxes in 2016 attracted a female consumer base, leading to rapid growth in the trendy toy market [21][24] - The company went public on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in December 2020, achieving a market valuation exceeding HKD 100 billion on its first trading day [24] Globalization Efforts - PopMart has expanded its presence in Southeast Asia, with significant revenue growth of 375.2% year-on-year in 2024, driven by localized marketing strategies and collaborations with local artists [28] - In the European and American markets, PopMart has successfully opened pop-up stores and collaborated with local influencers to enhance brand visibility and consumer engagement [29] Challenges and Future Outlook - Despite rapid growth, PopMart faces supply chain challenges and market saturation, with Wang Ning emphasizing the need for strict quality control and supply chain optimization [32][34] - The company is navigating the complexities of the blind box model, which has raised concerns about consumer trust and market speculation [34][35] - Wang Ning's vision for PopMart is to create a lasting emotional connection with consumers while addressing the challenges of maintaining brand value and cultural depth [35][36]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the impressive growth of Pop Mart, with a projected revenue increase of no less than 200% and an adjusted profit growth of no less than 350% for the first half of 2025, compared to the previous year [1] - The overseas market has become a key driver for Pop Mart's growth, with expectations that overseas revenue will surpass domestic revenue for the first time in 2025 [2] - The company has expanded its global footprint significantly, with over 180 stores in China, Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, and overseas regions by June 2025, marking a net increase of nearly 50 stores since the end of 2024 [2] Group 2 - The launch of the Labubu IP has driven significant engagement, leading to Pop Mart's app reaching the top of the shopping charts in the US App Store and the company being included in TIME's list of the 100 most influential companies [3] - Online sales have surged, with a record-breaking single-day GMV of over $5 million during a mid-year promotion on TikTok Shop in the US [3] - Despite the impressive performance, challenges such as product quality issues and the potential bubble in blind box economics pose risks to the company's growth trajectory [4] Group 3 - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 9.4 billion, 14.9 billion, and 20.5 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, indicating strong future profitability [5] - The establishment of Pop Mart's film studio and the upcoming project "LABUBU and Friends" aim to expand the brand into the content industry, enhancing its IP value [5] - Seasonal events and the company's 15th-anniversary celebrations are anticipated to further boost growth in the latter half of the year, reflecting a shift towards emotional consumption [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the phenomenon of the LABUBU blind box craze in China, highlighting the intense consumer demand, the role of social media influencers, and the complexities of the secondary market for these collectibles [3][6][12]. Group 1: Consumer Behavior - Consumers are actively participating in the purchase of LABUBU blind boxes, often queuing early to secure limited editions, indicating a strong demand for these products [3][4]. - The motivations for purchasing LABUBU vary among consumers, including genuine affection for the product, social comparison, and the potential for profit through resale [7][12]. - The popularity of LABUBU has been significantly influenced by endorsements from celebrities, leading to a surge in online searches and social media discussions [6][12]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - LABUBU has seen a dramatic increase in revenue, with projections of 13 billion yuan in 2024 and a 1.6 times year-on-year growth in Q1 2025, alongside a nearly fivefold increase in overseas market revenue [6][12]. - The blind box market operates on a dual-channel sales model, with both online and offline purchasing options, but the tactile experience of in-store shopping remains crucial for serious collectors [10][11]. - The secondary market for LABUBU collectibles is thriving, with resellers often marking up prices significantly, although the market can be volatile and subject to rapid changes in consumer interest [15][17]. Group 3: Brand and Product Strategy - The success of LABUBU is attributed to its unique design and the effective marketing strategies employed by Pop Mart, which include collaborations with artists and leveraging social media for brand visibility [6][12]. - Pop Mart's business model focuses on acquiring IP rights and creating a community around its products, which has fostered a dedicated fan base [12][15]. - The company has introduced various product lines and limited editions, which keeps consumer interest high and encourages repeat purchases [6][12].

Group 1 - The article discusses the unique and humorous nature of Japanese gacha machines, particularly the "wanted criminal gacha" that dispenses figurines of fictional criminals, which has gained popularity online [1][3][5] - The developer of the gacha machine, Hiroki Terai, revealed that the criminals depicted are fictional and based on acquaintances, leading to a lighthearted reception from consumers [5][7] - The gacha machine has expanded in Japan, selling over 30,000 capsules and generating approximately 9 million yen in revenue, showcasing the commercial success of this novelty [9][49] Group 2 - Japan's gacha market is extensive, with over 500 billion yen (approximately 3.2 billion USD) in market size, having doubled since 2010, indicating a strong growth trend [49][63] - The gacha machines are prevalent across various locations, with an estimated 500,000 machines in Japan, selling nearly 300 million capsules annually [47][49] - Despite the popularity of gacha machines, the market size is significantly smaller than that of the Chinese blind box company Pop Mart, which is projected to exceed 13 billion yuan in sales in 2024 [63][72] Group 3 - The article highlights the creativity and diversity of gacha products, ranging from food items to absurd concepts, reflecting a culture of innovation in Japan [11][25][27] - Gacha machines have evolved from simple toy dispensers to complex marketing tools for popular IPs, with major companies like Bandai dominating the market [45][68] - The competitive landscape for smaller gacha manufacturers has become challenging, with many struggling to achieve significant sales volumes, indicating a saturated market [70][72]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3519.65 points, up 0.27%, with a trading volume of 623.1 billion yuan [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10684.52 points, down 0.11%, with a trading volume of 835.6 billion yuan [1] - The ChiNext Index closed at 2197.07 points, down 0.45%, with a trading volume of 387.28 billion yuan [1] - The STAR Market 50 Index closed at 992.39 points, down 0.21%, with a trading volume of 22.92 billion yuan [1] - Total trading volume for both markets was 1458.75 billion yuan, a decrease of 253.38 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1] Sector Performance - Strong sectors included machinery, public utilities, oil and petrochemicals, textiles, chemicals, non-ferrous metals, and pharmaceuticals [2] - Active concepts included PEEK materials, humanoid robots, geothermal energy, and innovative drugs [2] - Weak sectors included real estate, media, securities, education, insurance, and retail [2] Fund Flow - The net outflow of main funds from the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 26.576 billion yuan [3] - The net outflow from the ChiNext was 12.112 billion yuan, and from the CSI 300 was 6.366 billion yuan [4] - Only four sectors saw net inflows: machinery (394 million yuan), home appliances (117 million yuan), coal (38 million yuan), and oil and petrochemicals (37 million yuan) [4] Individual Stock Performance - A total of 2089 stocks saw net inflows, with 37 stocks receiving over 100 million yuan in net inflows [5] - The stock with the highest net inflow was Zhongji Xuchuang, with 497 million yuan [6] - Conversely, 3048 stocks experienced net outflows, with 92 stocks seeing over 100 million yuan in net outflows [7] - BYD had the highest net outflow at 1.308 billion yuan [8] Institutional Activity - Institutions had a net buy of approximately 33.89 million yuan, with 17 stocks being net bought and 14 stocks net sold [9] - The stock with the highest institutional net buy was Xiangyang Bearing, with about 111 million yuan [10]

Industry Environment - Traditional luxury brands with similar aesthetics are being surpassed by more agile and culturally rooted competitors, facing a significant challenge in the global luxury market with an expected decline of 2%-5% in 2024 [1] - The luxury market is experiencing varied performance across regions, with the US and China showing weakness, while Europe remains stable and the Middle East and Southeast Asia demonstrate resilience [1] - Brands are responding to market challenges through innovation, diverse experiences, and entry-level products, emphasizing the need for creativity, technology, and customer relationships to attract younger consumers [1] Emotional Economy - The popularity of Labubu highlights the potential of the emotional economy in the toy market, with projected sales exceeding 3 billion yuan in 2024 [2] - There is a growing focus on the emotional needs of the elderly, with a significant increase in searches and sales for senior-friendly toys, reflecting demands for social interaction and cognitive training [2] - The senior toy market is moving towards standardization and technological innovation, aiming to foster intergenerational emotional connections and enhance the well-being of older adults [2] Outdoor Sports - Outdoor sports are becoming increasingly popular among young people, with a surge in sales of related products on e-commerce platforms [3] - The 95 post-90s generation participates in outdoor activities to relieve stress and connect with nature, pushing the industry from niche to mainstream [3] - Despite potential market bubbles, the outdoor equipment market is projected to reach 65.93 billion yuan by 2030, necessitating a balance between marketing and product development for sustainable growth [3] Fashion Trends - The shift from loose silhouettes to fitted tailoring is evident in Martine Rose's spring/summer collection, inspired by childhood experiences and retro styles [4] - The fashion industry is returning to traditional fitted designs to address creative stagnation, with brands like Acne Studios and Saint Laurent also emphasizing tailored cuts [4] Luxury Goods Market - During the Tmall 618 shopping festival, luxury brands saw significant growth, with Tmall's GMV increasing by 10% year-on-year and luxury goods outperforming other categories [5] - The platform's initiatives, such as the "Red Cat Plan," have driven traffic and doubled brand sales through live streaming and AI technology [5] Footwear Market - High-priced running shoes have become a status symbol among China's middle class, serving both health and social purposes [6] - As consumers become more price-conscious, the market is seeing increased competition, necessitating a return to value and technological innovation for sustained growth [6] Brand Communication - Luxury brands like LOEWE and Balenciaga are enhancing their brand narratives through immersive experiences and deep content storytelling in response to fragmented online communication [7] - These brands are leveraging social media to create cohesive content matrices that improve communication efficiency and meet consumer expectations for depth and sincerity [7] Men's Fashion Trends - The Pitti Uomo men's fashion exhibition highlighted the influence of cycling and active lifestyles on men's fashion, showcasing brands that emphasize lightness, functionality, and comfort [8] - Emerging brands are focusing on innovation and sustainability, reflecting a shift in design inspiration towards diverse athletic scenarios [8] Sunscreen Market - The sunscreen clothing market is experiencing rapid growth, projected to reach 95.8 billion yuan by 2026, despite issues like misleading UPF ratings and quality concerns [9] - As consumers become more discerning, brands must focus on genuine needs and improve product quality to succeed in a competitive landscape [9] Toy Industry - The toy industry is evolving with the rise of emotional consumption, as seen in the success of Labubu and the increasing interest in collectible blind boxes [10][11] - The market is becoming more concentrated, with leading companies like 52TOYS and TOPTOY accelerating their development, while the sustainability of industry hype remains in question [10][11] Footwear Trends - Barefoot shoes are gaining popularity as a niche category in the sports shoe market, aligning with the trend of returning to nature and healthy living [12] - Despite challenges like product homogeneity, future winners in this space will rely on technological development and community engagement to convert concepts into value [12] FIFA's Fashion Venture - FIFA is launching its own high-end fashion brand, FIFA1904, in collaboration with VFiles, aiming to expand its cultural influence and revenue streams [13] - This move reflects FIFA's strategy to diversify its commercial operations ahead of the 2030 World Cup, despite concerns over market positioning and identity compliance [13] Women's Sportswear - The sizing of women's sportswear is causing new body image anxieties, with a shortage of larger sizes in the domestic market [14] - Brands are encouraged to address diverse body types and provide more inclusive sizing options to meet the evolving consumer demands [14] Brand Developments - Non-Fungible Group appointed Victor Herrero as co-CEO, reflecting a strategic focus on brand transformation and supply chain management [15] - The new store opening for "Benlai" in Shanghai emphasizes sustainable fashion and community engagement through art installations and eco-friendly initiatives [16] Gender-Neutral Fashion - HOPE brand promotes gender fluidity through its "Style Before Gender" philosophy, focusing on timeless designs and practical aesthetics [25] - The brand's latest collection merges narrative and functionality, establishing itself as a benchmark in Swedish fashion [25]

Core Insights - The article discusses the phenomenon of the LABUBU blind box craze, highlighting the intense demand and the various motivations behind consumer purchases [3][4][5] - It emphasizes the significant revenue growth of Pop Mart, projecting revenues of 13 billion yuan in 2024 and a 1.6 times increase in Q1 2025 compared to the previous year [3][4] - The article also explores the complexities of consumer behavior, revealing that motivations range from genuine affection for the product to social status and investment potential [4][10] Group 1: Consumer Behavior - Consumers exhibit diverse motivations for purchasing LABUBU, including genuine interest, social comparison, and speculative investment [4][5][10] - The article describes a segment of buyers who are deeply engaged in the blind box culture, employing strategies to identify rare items, while others simply buy for social status [6][7] - The popularity of LABUBU is linked to social media exposure, with notable figures contributing to its viral status [3][4] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Pop Mart has established a dual-channel sales strategy, combining online and offline sales, which enhances consumer engagement and drives demand [7][8] - The article notes that the market for LABUBU has seen fluctuations, with prices for certain items dropping significantly as supply increases and interest wanes [15][16] - The phenomenon of "黄牛" (scalpers) is prevalent, with individuals attempting to resell blind boxes at a markup, although competition and market saturation are challenges [2][7][15] Group 3: Financial Performance - Pop Mart's revenue projections indicate a robust growth trajectory, with a forecast of 13 billion yuan in 2024 and nearly fivefold growth in overseas market revenue [3][4] - The article highlights the speculative nature of the LABUBU market, with some buyers viewing it as an investment opportunity despite the inherent risks [10][12] - The narrative suggests that the hype surrounding LABUBU may not be sustainable, as evidenced by recent price declines and market corrections [15][16]