碳市场是利用市场机制积极应对气候变化、加快经济社会发展全面绿色转型的重要政策工具。目前，我国已建立重点排 放单位履行强制减排责任的全国碳排放权交易市场和激励社会自主减排的全国温室气体自愿减排交易市场。为推动建设 更加有效、更有活力、更具国际影响力的全国碳市场，经党中央、国务院同意，现提出如下意见。 一、总体要求 坚持以习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想为指导，深入贯彻党的二十大和二十届二中、三中全会精神，全面贯彻习近 平经济思想、习近平生态文明思想，坚持稳中求进工作总基调，兼顾绿色低碳转型和经济发展需要，坚持有效市场、有 为政府，坚持碳市场作为控制温室气体排放政策工具的基本定位，加快建设全国统一的碳市场，有计划分步骤扩大实施 范围、扩展参与主体，营造更加公平公开透明的市场环境，努力实现碳排放资源配置效率最优化和效益最大化，推动传 统产业深度转型，培育发展新质生产力，激发全社会绿色低碳发展内生动力，为积极稳妥推进碳达峰碳中和、建设美丽 中国提供重要支撑。 主要目标是：到2027年，全国碳排放权交易市场基本覆盖工业领域主要排放行业，全国温室气体自愿减排交易市场实现 重点领域全覆盖。到2030年，基本建成以配额总量控 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the importance of the carbon market as a policy tool to address climate change and promote a comprehensive green transformation of the economy and society [3] - The document outlines the establishment of a national carbon emission trading market and a voluntary greenhouse gas reduction trading market, which incentivizes social self-reduction [3] - By 2027, the national carbon emission trading market is expected to cover major emission industries in the industrial sector, while the voluntary reduction market aims for full coverage in key areas [3] Group 2 - By 2030, the goal is to establish a carbon emission trading market based on total quota control, combining free and paid allocation, and to create a transparent, unified, and widely participatory voluntary reduction market that aligns with international standards [3] - The expected outcomes include a significant reduction in emissions, a sound regulatory framework, and a reasonable pricing mechanism for carbon [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the establishment and enhancement of China's national carbon market, emphasizing the importance of market mechanisms in addressing climate change and promoting green transformation in the economy [1][2]. Group 1: Overall Requirements - The initiative is guided by Xi Jinping's thoughts and aims to balance green transformation with economic development, focusing on creating a unified carbon market with a transparent environment [2]. - Key goals include achieving comprehensive coverage of major industrial sectors in the carbon trading market by 2027 and establishing a robust carbon pricing mechanism by 2030 [2]. Group 2: National Carbon Emission Trading Market - The plan includes expanding the coverage of the carbon trading market based on industry development, emission reduction contributions, and data quality [3]. - A transparent carbon emission quota management system will be established, transitioning from intensity control to total volume control by 2027 [3]. Group 3: Voluntary Emission Reduction Trading Market - The development of a voluntary emission reduction trading market will focus on creating a comprehensive methodology to support sustainable development and social expectations [5]. - There will be an emphasis on the integrity of project owners and verification agencies in managing voluntary reduction projects [5]. Group 4: Enhancing Market Vitality - Financial institutions will be encouraged to develop green financial products related to carbon emissions, enhancing support for greenhouse gas reduction [7]. - The introduction of new trading participants, including individuals and financial institutions, will be facilitated to broaden market participation [7]. Group 5: Capacity Building for Carbon Market - A management system will be established to support the development of the carbon market, including digital and intelligent management systems [8]. - The article emphasizes the need for strict verification and quality control of carbon emission data to ensure accuracy and reliability [9]. Group 6: Organizational Implementation and Support - Local governments are urged to strengthen leadership and policy support for carbon market operations, ensuring effective management of emission quotas and data quality [11]. - Legal frameworks will be developed to support carbon market construction and to combat illegal activities within the market [11]. Group 7: International Cooperation - The initiative aims to engage in international dialogue and cooperation on carbon market mechanisms, promoting mutual recognition of standards and data [12].

Core Points - The main goal is to establish a national carbon emissions trading market that covers major industrial sectors by 2027, and to achieve full coverage of key areas in the voluntary greenhouse gas reduction trading market [1] - By 2030, the aim is to create a national carbon emissions trading market based on total quota control, combining free and paid allocation, along with a voluntary greenhouse gas reduction trading market that is transparent, methodologically unified, widely participatory, and aligned with international standards [1] - The expected outcome includes a significant reduction in emissions, a sound regulatory framework, and a reasonable pricing mechanism for carbon [1]

Group 1 - The year marks the 20th anniversary of the "Green Mountains and Clear Water are Gold and Silver Mountains" concept and the 5th anniversary of the "dual carbon" goals [1][5] - Since the launch of China's carbon market in 2021, it has contributed to a 4% increase in global carbon pricing coverage, which now stands at 28% of global carbon emissions [1][2] - The national carbon emissions trading market has expanded to include cement, steel, and aluminum industries, adding approximately 1,500 key emission units, which will cover over 60% of national CO2 emissions [1][2] Group 2 - The establishment of both mandatory and voluntary carbon markets creates a "dual drive" for the world's largest carbon market, with the voluntary market being cross-border and based on corporate autonomy [2] - There is significant potential in the voluntary carbon market, especially for companies aiming for carbon neutrality by 2030, with demand expected to grow from various sectors including automotive [2][3] - The need for carbon reduction must be matched by an increase in carbon credit supply, focusing on project viability, technological impact, and biodiversity [2] Group 3 - By 2060, approximately 1.8 billion tons of CO2 will need to be neutralized through carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) technologies [3] - Financial resources are increasingly directed towards green projects, including innovative initiatives like "fishing and solar power integration" [3] - As of the end of Q2 2025, the balance of green loans reached 42.39 trillion yuan, reflecting a 14.4% increase from the beginning of the year [3] Group 4 - The scope of green finance is expanding, with the new 2025 version of the "Green Finance Support Project Directory" including 271 categories, supporting both pure green projects and traditional projects needing transformation [4] - The voluntary carbon market has seen a cumulative transaction volume of nearly 2.4 million tons and a transaction value exceeding 200 million yuan as of July 28 [5] - The establishment of the National Green Technology Trading Center aims to promote green technology and accelerate its implementation [5]

Core Viewpoint - The European Union's assessment of CORSIA may significantly increase costs for airlines, particularly those operating long-haul flights from Europe, as the EU carbon pricing mechanism could be applied to these flights, resulting in carbon costs that are five times higher than those under CORSIA [3][4]. Group 1: Impact on Airlines - If the EU Commission recommends extending the EU carbon pricing mechanism to long-haul flights from Europe by July 2026, many airlines' carbon costs could rise dramatically, affecting major carriers like American Airlines, United Airlines, Delta Air Lines, and others [4]. - European airlines such as Lufthansa, Air France, and British Airways may face greater impacts compared to low-cost carriers like easyJet and Ryanair, which operate fewer long-haul flights [4]. - The European Transport and Environment Federation is lobbying for the extension of the EU carbon pricing mechanism to all flights departing from Europe, arguing that CORSIA's carbon price is too low to meet EU climate goals [4]. Group 2: Carbon Pricing Comparison - The current price of EU carbon allowances is €75 per ton of CO2 equivalent, which is 20% higher than the UK's price of £52 per ton (approximately €63) and five times higher than CORSIA's futures price of $17 per ton (approximately €14.8) [6]. - The reduction of free allowances since 2021 has supported demand for EU carbon allowances, although approximately €120 million in free allowances were issued in 2024 [6]. - Unlike the EU and UK carbon trading systems, which charge for all emissions from internal flights, CORSIA only applies carbon offset costs to emissions exceeding pre-pandemic baseline levels, leading to criticism regarding its lack of ambition [6]. Group 3: IAG's Carbon Costs - IAG, which operates several airlines including British Airways and Iberia, faces significant carbon costs even with the current EU carbon pricing mechanism limited to internal flights, with annual carbon costs amounting to hundreds of millions of euros [10]. - In 2024, IAG received €153 million in free carbon allowances, totaling €1.06 billion since 2020, but these free allowances will gradually decrease by 2026 [10]. - IAG's carbon allowance expenditure in 2024 is projected to be €301 million, up from €212 million in 2023, with the company assuming a future EU carbon price of €120 per ton, which is 60% higher than the current price [10].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for deeper cooperation between China and the EU in light of the uncertain international political and economic landscape, particularly focusing on fair trade rules and maximizing the benefits of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) for sustainable development [1][6]. Summary by Relevant Sections Potential Impact of EU CBAM - The EU's CBAM may lead to increased costs for certain member states, with significant disparities in impact, particularly affecting countries like Bulgaria, Ireland, and Greece that rely heavily on imports from non-EU countries [2]. - For China, the short-term effects of CBAM are limited, but the long-term implications are substantial, as the mechanism initially targets industries like steel and aluminum, which are significant in China's exports to the EU [2]. Opportunities and Challenges in China-EU Economic Cooperation - China and the EU share a consistent stance on climate action, which can be leveraged to enhance cooperation in clean energy projects under the Belt and Road Initiative, focusing on nuclear, wind, and solar energy [3]. - The challenges posed by CBAM include its role as a tool for achieving climate goals, which may restrict trade flexibility and highlight differences in resource endowments and development stages between China and the EU [4]. Development Directions for China-EU Economic Cooperation - Strengthening policy dialogue and coordinating carbon pricing mechanisms is essential to reduce friction caused by climate policies, with suggestions for regular discussions on carbon pricing and CBAM implementation details [7]. - Improving the carbon emission accounting system to enhance data credibility and accuracy is crucial, with proposals for unified standards and data sharing to mitigate uncertainties in CBAM implementation [8]. - Exploring mechanisms for redistributing CBAM revenues to support low-carbon transitions in developing countries can help alleviate the impact of CBAM on global trade dynamics [9]. - Promoting green technology cooperation is vital, leveraging China's strengths in clean energy and the EU's comprehensive green governance framework to enhance low-carbon industrial development [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for several companies in the electricity sector, including Sanxia Energy, Changjiang Electric Power, and China Nuclear Power, while providing a "Cautious Recommendation" for China General Nuclear Power and others [24][25]. Core Insights - The electricity sector outperformed the market this week, with the public utility sector index rising by 2.55% and the electricity sub-sector by 2.81%, ranking first among 31 primary sectors [1][9]. - The report highlights the recent government policy aimed at optimizing pricing mechanisms for electricity, gas, and water, which is expected to enhance the sustainability of public utility pricing [2][22]. - The national carbon market has stabilized at a price of 100 yuan per ton, with increased trading activity and mandatory green certificate consumption, indicating a maturing green certificate market [2][22]. Summary by Sections Weekly Market Review - The public utility sector index closed at 2346.99 points, up 58.31 points, while the electricity sub-sector closed at 3129.43 points, up 85.49 points, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index [1][9]. - Sub-sector performance included increases in wind power (3.49%), thermal power (3.61%), and hydropower (2.92%) [1][16]. Policy Developments - The Central Committee and State Council issued guidelines to improve pricing mechanisms for public utilities, focusing on market-driven pricing for electricity, gas, and water [2][22]. - The guidelines propose a phased approach to market-oriented pricing reforms for various power sources and emphasize the establishment of a unified green power certificate trading system [2][22]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on defensive sectors with strong dividend yields, highlighting companies like Jiantou Energy, Huadian International, and Funiu Co., which are expected to maintain good growth in Q1 2025 [3][22]. - Specific recommendations include favoring companies with significant wind power assets and low-cost thermal power operations, while also monitoring potential mergers and acquisitions in the sector [22][23]. Key Company Forecasts - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for key companies, with Sanxia Energy projected at 0.25 yuan for 2023, Changjiang Electric Power at 1.11 yuan, and China Nuclear Power at 0.55 yuan [24][25].

Group 1: Green Industrial Policy Overview - Green industrial policies are increasingly viewed as essential for achieving net-zero emissions and promoting economic recovery and job growth[6] - The OECD reports that fiscal support for low-carbon technologies has significantly increased, with both the US and EU allocating 3.0% of GDP to green initiatives post-COVID[19] - The number of OECD countries integrating green industrial policy goals into budget planning rose from 14 to 24 between 2020 and 2022[19] Group 2: Challenges and Controversies - Green industrial policies face challenges such as complex design and execution, potential misallocation of public funds, and trade tensions[6] - The implementation of the US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) is projected to cost between $800 billion and $1.2 trillion over the next decade[34] - Subsidy policies can lead to market distortions, supporting inefficient firms and potentially increasing overall emissions due to reduced incentives for energy conservation[36] Group 3: Economic Implications - The cost of achieving emissions reductions through subsidies can be significantly higher than through carbon pricing mechanisms, with some estimates showing costs up to 1,000 euros per ton of CO2 for early renewable energy policies in France and Germany[35] - In China, the marginal cost of emissions reduction from electric vehicle subsidies is approximately 4,453 RMB (about $712), far exceeding current carbon market prices[35] Group 4: International Trade and Competition - Green subsidy measures can exacerbate global subsidy races and distort international trade, particularly when favoring domestic suppliers[36] - Trade barriers resulting from subsidy policies may lead to increased production costs and hinder global economic stability[37] - Developing countries may struggle to compete with wealthier nations in green technology due to limited fiscal resources, exacerbating global inequalities in green investment[39]