Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for several companies in the electricity sector, including Sanxia Energy, Changjiang Electric Power, and China Nuclear Power, while providing a "Cautious Recommendation" for China General Nuclear Power and others [24][25]. Core Insights - The electricity sector outperformed the market this week, with the public utility sector index rising by 2.55% and the electricity sub-sector by 2.81%, ranking first among 31 primary sectors [1][9]. - The report highlights the recent government policy aimed at optimizing pricing mechanisms for electricity, gas, and water, which is expected to enhance the sustainability of public utility pricing [2][22]. - The national carbon market has stabilized at a price of 100 yuan per ton, with increased trading activity and mandatory green certificate consumption, indicating a maturing green certificate market [2][22]. Summary by Sections Weekly Market Review - The public utility sector index closed at 2346.99 points, up 58.31 points, while the electricity sub-sector closed at 3129.43 points, up 85.49 points, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index [1][9]. - Sub-sector performance included increases in wind power (3.49%), thermal power (3.61%), and hydropower (2.92%) [1][16]. Policy Developments - The Central Committee and State Council issued guidelines to improve pricing mechanisms for public utilities, focusing on market-driven pricing for electricity, gas, and water [2][22]. - The guidelines propose a phased approach to market-oriented pricing reforms for various power sources and emphasize the establishment of a unified green power certificate trading system [2][22]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on defensive sectors with strong dividend yields, highlighting companies like Jiantou Energy, Huadian International, and Funiu Co., which are expected to maintain good growth in Q1 2025 [3][22]. - Specific recommendations include favoring companies with significant wind power assets and low-cost thermal power operations, while also monitoring potential mergers and acquisitions in the sector [22][23]. Key Company Forecasts - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for key companies, with Sanxia Energy projected at 0.25 yuan for 2023, Changjiang Electric Power at 1.11 yuan, and China Nuclear Power at 0.55 yuan [24][25].

Group 1: Green Industrial Policy Overview - Green industrial policies are increasingly viewed as essential for achieving net-zero emissions and promoting economic recovery and job growth[6] - The OECD reports that fiscal support for low-carbon technologies has significantly increased, with both the US and EU allocating 3.0% of GDP to green initiatives post-COVID[19] - The number of OECD countries integrating green industrial policy goals into budget planning rose from 14 to 24 between 2020 and 2022[19] Group 2: Challenges and Controversies - Green industrial policies face challenges such as complex design and execution, potential misallocation of public funds, and trade tensions[6] - The implementation of the US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) is projected to cost between $800 billion and $1.2 trillion over the next decade[34] - Subsidy policies can lead to market distortions, supporting inefficient firms and potentially increasing overall emissions due to reduced incentives for energy conservation[36] Group 3: Economic Implications - The cost of achieving emissions reductions through subsidies can be significantly higher than through carbon pricing mechanisms, with some estimates showing costs up to 1,000 euros per ton of CO2 for early renewable energy policies in France and Germany[35] - In China, the marginal cost of emissions reduction from electric vehicle subsidies is approximately 4,453 RMB (about $712), far exceeding current carbon market prices[35] Group 4: International Trade and Competition - Green subsidy measures can exacerbate global subsidy races and distort international trade, particularly when favoring domestic suppliers[36] - Trade barriers resulting from subsidy policies may lead to increased production costs and hinder global economic stability[37] - Developing countries may struggle to compete with wealthier nations in green technology due to limited fiscal resources, exacerbating global inequalities in green investment[39]