大宗商品研究所 有色研发报告 有色金属日报 2025 年 9 月 23 日星期二 【市场回顾】 万手。 【重要资讯】 【逻辑分析】 金属板块负责人：车红云 期货从业证号：F03088215 投资咨询从业证号：Z0017510 研究员：王伟 期货从业证号：F03143400 投资咨询从业证号：Z0022141 研究员：陈婧 FRM 期货从业证号：F03107034 投资咨询从业证号：Z0018401 研究员：陈寒松 期货从业证号：F03129697 投资咨询从业证号：Z0020351 联系方式： 上海：021-65789219 北京：010-68569781 1.期货：今日沪铜 2511 合约收于 79920 元/吨，跌幅 0.25%，沪铜指数减仓 10887 手至 46.67 2.现货：临近假期下游备货节奏较缓，上海现货报升水 55 元/吨，较上一交易日下跌 5 元/ 吨。广东库存 4 连降，台风来临下游适量增加采购量，整体交投尚可，报升水 70 元/吨， 持平上一交易日。华北消费疲软，当前采购谨慎，报贴水 90 元/吨，下跌 10 元/吨。 1. 据海关总署在线查询平台数据显示，中国 8 月铜矿砂及其精矿进 ...

Domestic News - The Ministry of Commerce and nine other departments announced 20 measures to promote the expansion and upgrade of the "15-minute convenient living circle" by 2030, aiming to establish 100 pilot cities and create 10,000 well-structured living circles with a resident satisfaction rate of over 90% and a chain store rate of over 30% [1] - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment reported that China has built the world's largest carbon emissions trading market, covering over 60% of the country's carbon emissions, and has initiated a voluntary greenhouse gas reduction trading market [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, along with other departments, issued a "Light Industry Stabilization Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)" to enhance the role of light industry in economic stability, with a focus on new growth points such as smart home products and sports leisure products [2] - The Ministry of Transport released a plan to build high-quality data sets for the transportation industry by 2030, aiming to improve data supply and support the development of intelligent transportation networks [2] - The Civil Aviation Administration reported that China's civil aviation achieved a total transportation turnover of 151.8 billion ton-kilometers in August, marking a year-on-year increase of 8% [3] Market Updates - The People's Bank of China announced adjustments to the 14-day reverse repurchase operations, which will now be conducted with fixed quantity and interest rate bidding [3] - The National Foreign Exchange Administration reported that in August 2025, banks settled 15,103 billion yuan and sold 14,058 billion yuan, with cumulative settlements from January to August reaching 113,938 billion yuan [3] - The China Automobile Industry Association is conducting an anti-discrimination investigation in response to the U.S. measures against China's integrated circuit sector, focusing on the impact on the automotive industry [4] Housing and Automotive Industry - Shanghai has optimized its housing property tax pilot policies, providing tax exemptions for high-level talents and first-time homebuyers under certain conditions [5] - Xiaomi Auto Technology has initiated a recall of 116,887 electric vehicles produced between February 6, 2024, and August 30, 2025, in compliance with regulations [5]

Group 1 - The main contracts in the futures market show a bearish sentiment, with 30 contracts rising and 48 contracts falling today [2] - The most significant gainers include industrial silicon (+3.62%), soybean meal (+2.15%), and lithium carbonate (+1.62%), driven by supply-demand factors [5] - The most significant losers include the shipping index (European line) (-6.00%) and paraxylene (-2.51%), likely influenced by increased bearish pressure or negative fundamentals [6] Group 2 - The largest inflows of capital were seen in gold (+2.922 billion), silver (+1.823 billion), and iron ore (+816 million), indicating strong interest from major funds [8] - The largest outflows were from copper (-867 million), the SSE 50 index (-537 million), and polysilicon (-284 million), suggesting significant capital withdrawal [8] Group 3 - Notable increases in open interest were observed in styrene (+21.73%), caustic soda (+12.23%), and PTA (+11.47%), indicating high trading activity and potential new capital inflow [11] - Significant decreases in open interest were noted in copper (-8.84%), double-sided paper (-8.9%), and lead (-16.12%), suggesting capital withdrawal and potential caution in future performance [11] Group 4 - The Shanghai export container freight index fell by 199.90 points to 1198.21 points, reflecting a decline in shipping demand [12] - The inventory of imported cotton at major ports decreased by 0.26% week-on-week, totaling 286,000 tons, indicating a slight reduction in supply [14] Group 5 - The iron ore main contract rose by 0.81% to 807.5 yuan/ton, supported by tightening supply and recovering demand [25] - The caustic soda main contract increased by 0.08% to 1318 yuan/ton, despite a decline in downstream acceptance of high prices [26]

Core Insights - The Chinese carbon market has achieved a cumulative transaction volume of nearly 49 billion yuan, indicating significant progress in carbon trading and emissions reduction efforts [1] Group 1: Air Quality Improvement - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment reported that PM2.5 concentrations in key regions are projected to decrease by 18%, 10%, and 20% by 2024 compared to 2020 levels [1] - Nationally, PM2.5 concentrations are expected to drop to 29.3 micrograms per cubic meter in 2024, a reduction of 16.3% from 2020, with good air quality days increasing to 87.2% [3] - From January to August, PM2.5 concentrations in cities decreased by 1.2 micrograms per cubic meter, a 4.6% decline year-on-year [3] Group 2: Water Quality and Pollution Control - Over 90% of major rivers and lakes have achieved good water quality, with the proportion of good water quality monitoring points reaching 90.4% for the first time [3] - The Ministry has identified over 360,000 pollution outlets and completed remediation in major river basins, achieving a 90% completion rate [2] Group 3: Soil and Solid Waste Management - The Ministry has implemented soil pollution prevention actions, completing pollution tracing in 132 key counties and achieving over 45% rural sewage treatment [1][2] - The "No Waste City" initiative is being advanced, with a complete ban on foreign waste imports and actions against illegal waste disposal [2] Group 4: Carbon Emission Reduction Initiatives - The country has completed ultra-low emissions upgrades for 1.12 billion kilowatts of coal power and 950 million tons of crude steel capacity [2] - A voluntary greenhouse gas emission reduction trading market has been initiated, enhancing the internal drive for green development [2] Group 5: Biodiversity and Ecological Protection - The area of ecological protection red lines has exceeded 30%, with 90% of terrestrial ecosystem types and 74% of key wildlife populations effectively protected [2] - The Ministry has addressed 4,545 key issues related to national nature reserves, with most rectifications completed [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the significant progress made in China's ecological and environmental protection efforts during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, including the reduction of high-emission vehicles and improvements in air and water quality [2][4] - The area of ecological protection red lines in China exceeds 30%, indicating a strong commitment to land conservation [3] - The country has successfully eliminated nearly 20 million high-emission vehicles as part of its pollution prevention strategy [2] Group 2 - The PM2.5 concentration in major cities has decreased by 16.3% compared to 2020, reaching 29.3 micrograms per cubic meter in 2024 [4] - The proportion of good air quality days has increased to 87.2%, up by 2.4 percentage points from 2020 [4] - The national water quality has improved, with 90.4% of surface water quality monitoring points meeting good quality standards, marking the first time this figure has exceeded 90% [4] Group 3 - China has established the world's largest carbon emissions trading market, covering over 60% of the country's carbon emissions [3] - The country has completed ultra-low emission transformations for 1.12 billion kilowatts of coal power units and 950 million tons of crude steel capacity [3] - The government is actively promoting the voluntary greenhouse gas reduction trading market and enhancing the product carbon footprint management system [3]

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of a voluntary greenhouse gas emission reduction trading system is a crucial task for enhancing China's green low-carbon development mechanism, creating significant market opportunities, and promoting the implementation of national contributions to global climate governance [1][2][3]. Group 1: Policy and Guidelines - The Central Committee and the State Council emphasize the importance of building a national voluntary greenhouse gas emission reduction trading market as part of the national carbon market system [2][3]. - The "Opinions on Promoting Green and Low-Carbon Transformation and Strengthening National Carbon Market Construction" serves as a specific requirement and action guide for implementing Xi Jinping's ecological civilization thought [1][3]. - The national voluntary emission reduction trading market aims to be more effective, vibrant, and internationally influential, with clear goals set by Xi Jinping [2][3]. Group 2: Progress and Implementation - The national voluntary greenhouse gas emission reduction trading market is set to launch in January 2024, with significant progress already made [4]. - A policy and regulatory framework has been established, including the "Management Measures for Voluntary Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction Trading (Trial)" and various supporting normative documents [5]. - The registration and trading systems for the voluntary emission reduction market have been successfully developed and are operational [6]. Group 3: Market Development and Methodology - A methodology system is being constructed to support the trading market, focusing on key areas for carbon peak and neutrality, and integrating international rules [8]. - The market is expected to expand its trading products and participants, enhancing the CCER price discovery mechanism and creating more demand for CCER [9]. Group 4: Regulatory and International Cooperation - A joint regulatory mechanism is being established to ensure high-quality CCER market supply and to prevent systemic risks [9]. - The market aims to engage in international cooperation, promoting China's green low-carbon technologies and aligning with international mechanisms [9].

Core Viewpoint - The central government aims to advance green and low-carbon transformation by enhancing the national carbon market, with specific targets set for 2027 and 2030 [1] Summary by Relevant Sections National Carbon Market Development - By 2027, the national carbon emission trading market is expected to cover major emission industries in the industrial sector [1] - The voluntary greenhouse gas reduction trading market is targeted to achieve full coverage in key areas by 2027 [1] Long-term Goals - By 2030, the goal is to establish a national carbon emission trading market based on total quota control, combining both free and paid allocation methods [1] - The voluntary greenhouse gas reduction trading market is to be built with integrity, transparency, unified methods, broad participation, and alignment with international standards [1] Pricing Mechanism - The aim is to form a carbon pricing mechanism that demonstrates significant reduction effects, a sound rule system, and reasonable price levels [1]

8月25日对外公布 新华社权威快报 中共中央办公厅 国务院办公厅 《关于推进线色《成转型 加强合国际市场建设的意见》 8月25日，中共中央办公厅、国务院办公厅《关于推进绿色低碳转型加强全国碳市场建设的意 见》对外公布。 这份意见明确，碳市场是利用市场机制积极应对气候变化、加快经济社会发展全面绿色转型的 重要政策工具。目前，我国已建立重点排放单位履行强制减排责任的全国碳排放权交易市场和 激励社会自主减排的全国温室气体自愿减排交易市场。 这份意见提出，到2027年，全国碳排放权交易市场基本覆盖工业领域主要排放行业，全国温室 气体自愿减排交易市场实现重点领域全覆盖。到2030年，基本建成以配额总量控制为基础、免 费和有偿分配相结合的全国碳排放权交易市场，建成诚信透明、方法统一、参与广泛、与国际 接轨的全国温室气体自愿减排交易市场，形成减排效果明显、规则体系健全、价格水平合理的 碳定价机制。 来源丨新华社 编辑丨刘雪莹 当A股遇上AI，股神的诞生？ 45年，深圳城市"封面"迭代 上海全面调整楼市限购、信贷、房产税，二套房商贷200万元月供或减少439元 SFC 21君荐读 新华社国内部出品 全文请看→ 中共中央办公厅 ...

Core Points - The main goal is to establish a national carbon emissions trading market that covers major industrial sectors by 2027, and to achieve full coverage of key areas in the voluntary greenhouse gas reduction trading market [1] - By 2030, the aim is to create a national carbon emissions trading market based on total quota control, combining free and paid allocation, along with a voluntary greenhouse gas reduction trading market that is transparent, methodologically unified, widely participatory, and aligned with international standards [1] - The expected outcome includes a significant reduction in emissions, a sound regulatory framework, and a reasonable pricing mechanism for carbon [1]