预告：国新办4月28日就稳就业稳经济推动高质量发展政策措施有关情况举行新闻发布会 智通财经4月27日电，国务院新闻办公室定于2025年4月28日（星期一）上午10时举行新闻发布会，请国 家发展改革委副主任赵辰昕、人力资源社会保障部副部长俞家栋、商务部副部长盛秋平、中国人民银行 副行长邹澜介绍稳就业稳经济推动高质量发展政策措施有关情况，并答记者问。 ...

Group 1 - The central political bureau meeting indicates a positive trend in the economy, but emphasizes the need to solidify the recovery amidst increasing external shocks [1] - The meeting introduces the concept of "coordinating domestic economic work and international trade struggles," addressing unilateralism and bullying tactics from the U.S. [2] - The focus shifts from the "six stabilizations" to "four stabilizations," prioritizing employment while also emphasizing the resilience of enterprises [3] Group 2 - The macroeconomic policy maintains a proactive stance, with new requirements for accelerated implementation and effective utilization of policies [3] - Fiscal policy will expedite the issuance and use of local government special bonds and ultra-long-term special treasury bonds, while monetary policy may include timely reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions [3] - The meeting outlines a new policy toolkit to support key areas such as technological innovation, consumption expansion, and foreign trade stability [3] Group 3 - The meeting conveys a strong confidence in China's economic resilience, asserting that high-quality development will navigate uncertainties from external environments [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market is currently affected by various factors such as global trade wars, US tariff policies, and domestic economic policies. Different commodities show different trends and investment opportunities based on their own fundamentals and market conditions [4]. - For futures trading, different strategies are recommended for various commodities according to their supply - demand relationships, price trends, and external factors. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro Information - The Chinese government is taking measures to stabilize employment, the economy, and promote high - quality development, including encouraging enterprises to stabilize employment, supporting foreign investment, and promoting service consumption [4]. - Fiscal revenue in the first quarter decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, while fiscal expenditure increased by 4.2% [4]. - In Beijing, the new - start area of real estate development increased by 19.1% year - on - year in the first quarter, and the sales area of new commercial housing increased by 6.2%, but the residential sales area decreased by 2.7% [4]. - The US government is discussing forming a working group to deal with supply - chain crises caused by high tariffs on Chinese goods [4]. 3.2 Futures Market 3.2.1 Stock Index Futures - Consider IH, IM cross - variety arbitrage or stay on the sidelines. The market trading volume has shrunk, and there is a strong wait - and - see sentiment. The market is affected by policy expectations and economic data [4]. 3.2.2 Treasury Bond Futures - In the case that reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts do not exceed expectations, maintain a moderately optimistic attitude towards ultra - long - term bonds. Pay attention to reserve requirement ratio cuts, interest rate cuts, and the Politburo meeting at the end of the month [4]. 3.2.3 Shipping (Container Shipping to Europe) - Consider taking appropriate profit on short positions. The market has absorbed the expected increase in freight rates during the peak season and supply - side pressure. The freight rate may face different situations in May, with potential short - term tightness and long - term oversupply [4][5]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: The domestic cotton price is under pressure and fluctuates at a low level. The impact of US tariffs, USDA reports, and domestic supply - demand conditions all affect cotton prices. Although there was good export data in March, the overall situation is still not optimistic [5][6]. - **Sugar**: The sugar price fluctuates due to factors such as the start of the new sugar - making season in Brazil, the reduction in India's production, and the uncertainty of the supply - demand gap [7][8]. - **Oils and Oilseeds**: Short palm oil at high prices and long soybean meal at low prices. The production of palm oil is in the seasonal increase period, while the supply of soybean meal is expected to increase in the future [9][10]. - **Eggs**: The spot price of eggs is expected to be stable and slightly strong in the short term, but the futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly. The supply is expected to increase in the future [10]. - **Apples**: Consider lightly buying near - month contracts at low prices. The spot price is firm, the inventory is low, and the market consumption is in a good state [10]. - **Jujubes**: Hold short positions and pay attention to downstream demand and abnormal changes in the production area. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is weak [10]. - **Pigs**: Consider shorting the LH2507 contract at high prices. The demand is in the off - season, and the supply is increasing [11]. 3.2.5 Energy - **Crude Oil**: The price of crude oil has rebounded slightly. OPEC+ plans to increase production in May, and the US economic slowdown and trade wars affect the demand. The market is in a state of super - decline repair, and the price is expected to be volatile and slightly strong [12]. - **Fuel Oil**: The demand for fuel oil is declining, but there is still power - generation demand in the high - sulfur summer. It is expected to fluctuate with the oil price [13]. 3.2.6 Chemicals - **Plastic**: L is expected to fluctuate weakly, while PP can be considered for long positions in the near - month contract after a correction and short positions in the far - month contract [14]. - **Methanol**: The price of methanol is expected to fluctuate weakly due to the increase in supply and the weakening of demand [15]. - **Caustic Soda**: The spot price of caustic soda is expected to be weak after a restocking cycle. The futures price is expected to follow a similar trend [16]. - **Soda Ash and Glass**: The price of soda ash is expected to fluctuate weakly due to high supply and inventory. The price of glass is expected to be weak as the market expectation is pessimistic [17][18]. - **Asphalt**: The price of asphalt is expected to be in the range of 3250 - 3350 yuan without a significant increase in crude oil prices [19]. - **Pulp**: The fundamentals are short - term weak. Pay attention to the arrival rhythm in April and the inventory rhythm [20][21]. - **Urea**: Keep a long - position idea for the UR09 contract at low prices as the supply and demand are expected to be strong in the later stage [22]. 3.2.7 Metals - **Aluminum and Alumina**: Aluminum is expected to fluctuate weakly, while alumina is expected to oscillate at the bottom and can be considered for long positions at low prices [23]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Consider an oscillatory approach as the short - term price is mainly affected by its own supply - demand changes [24]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon is expected to be bearish, while polysilicon has over - supply pressure in the medium term [26][27]. - **Steel and Iron Ore**: The market is expected to oscillate in the short term and decline weakly in the long term [27][28]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The price of coking coal and coke is expected to be weak in the short term [30]. - **Ferroalloys**: Short manganese silicon at high prices and long silicon iron at low prices [31].

国务院总理李强4月18日主持召开国务院常务会议，研究稳就业稳经济推动高质量发展的若干 举措，听取"3·15"晚会曝光问题处置情况汇报，讨论《中华人民共和国社会救助法（草 案）》，审议通过《中华人民共和国植物新品种保护条例（修订草案）》。 会议指出，面对复杂严峻的外部环境，要深入贯彻中央经济工作会议部署，加力落实《政府工 作报告》明确的政策措施，锚定经济社会发展目标，加大逆周期调节力度，着力稳就业稳外 贸，着力促消费扩内需，着力优结构提质量，做强国内大循环，推动经济高质量发展。要鼓励 企业积极稳定就业，加大职业技能培训力度，扩大以工代赈等支持，加强就业公共服务。要稳 定外贸外资发展，一业一策、一企一策加大支持力度，支持外资企业境内再投资。要促进养 老、生育、文化、旅游等服务消费， 扩大有效投资，大力提振民间投资积极性。 要持续稳定 股市 ，持续推动房地产市场平稳健康发展。 相关举措一旦推出，要直达企业和群众，提高落 地效率，确保实施效果。 会议指出，"3·15"晚会曝光问题处置工作已取得阶段性进展，要坚持举一反三、标本兼治， 强化日常监管和预防工作，聚焦民生关切强化质量安全监管，进一步压紧压实全链条监管责 任， ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent U.S. CPI inflation data, which fell below market expectations, indicating a potential upcoming "secondary inflation" due to tariff impacts and persistent supply-side pressures [1][4][14]. Macroeconomic Analysis - The U.S. CPI year-on-year growth rate decreased to 2.4%, while the core CPI fell to 2.8%, both lower than market expectations [1][4]. - Energy prices have sharply declined, significantly contributing to the unexpected drop in inflation, with gasoline prices falling by 6.3% month-on-month and 9.8% year-on-year [7][10]. - Optional consumption is shrinking, with second-hand car prices dropping by 0.7% month-on-month, marking the first decline since September 2024 [10]. - Despite the decline in certain sectors, supply-side pressures from housing, labor, and food (notably eggs) remain unchanged, suggesting persistent inflationary support [11][14]. Inflation Outlook - The article predicts that U.S. inflation may rebound above 3% by mid-year due to the delayed effects of tariffs [14][16]. - The labor market remains robust, with certain sectors experiencing high inflation despite overall economic weakness, indicating limited room for significant interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [16] . Strategy Recommendations - The article advises caution in going long on long-term U.S. Treasuries and suggests shorting the dollar at higher levels [4][18]. - Current U.S. Treasury yields present some attractiveness for long positions, but market stability should be monitored before entering [18]. - The dollar has seen a significant decline, with the index dropping 1.9% to 100.983, indicating potential opportunities for shorting the currency [17][18].