Core Viewpoint - UBS has lowered its forecast for the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to 4.10% due to a weakening outlook for the U.S. labor market [1] Group 1: Yield Forecast - UBS revised the 10-year Treasury yield expectation down from 4.20% to 4.10%, with a stop-loss level set at 4.40% [1] - The firm anticipates that if upcoming U.S. employment data is weak, including initial jobless claims and non-farm payroll data, Treasury yields may decline [1] Group 2: Market Insights - UBS is betting on a steepening of the U.S. Treasury yield curve, indicating an expansion in the difference between short-term and long-term yields [1] - Tradeweb data shows the latest 10-year U.S. Treasury yield at 4.199%, having previously reached a two-month low of 4.191% [1]

Group 1: U.S. Treasury Yield Trends - The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds fell by 5 basis points (BP) to 4.23%, marking a two-month low, down 19 BP from the end of May and nearly 35 BP from the end of 2024 [1] - The 2-year Treasury yield decreased by 3 BP to 3.72%, significantly down 52 BP from the 4.24% level at the end of 2024, with the yield spread between 10-year and 2-year bonds widening by 17 BP in the first half of the year [2] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Economic Factors - In the first quarter, uncertainty from Trump's tariff policies and a slowing U.S. economy heightened risk aversion, leading investors to flock to Treasuries, causing yields to decline. However, a sharp sell-off occurred in early April as hedge funds reduced leverage, raising liquidity concerns in the Treasury market [4] - Optimism in the market improved in June due to effective trade negotiations, while persistent low inflation reignited investor confidence in potential rate cuts. The market's expectations for rate cuts have significantly increased, with most traders anticipating a reduction to the 3.5%-3.75% range by December [4] Group 3: Federal Reserve's Position - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell expressed concerns that tariffs could raise inflation but indicated that if inflation remains controlled, rate cuts could occur sooner rather than later. He refrained from specifying a particular meeting for potential rate adjustments [4] - The general consensus among economists is that the impact of tariffs on inflation may have a lagging effect, with upcoming inflation data expected to reflect the true trend of price increases [5] Group 4: Legislative Impact on National Debt - The U.S. Senate approved a procedural vote for the "Big and Beautiful" bill, which is projected to increase U.S. national debt by $3.3 trillion over the next decade, exceeding the House version by approximately $800 billion. The current national debt stands at $36.2 trillion [6] - Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers warned that the bill would increase the debt burden and undermine the U.S.'s global standing, with actual debt growth potentially exceeding $4 trillion due to temporary tax cuts and expanded borrowing [7] Group 5: Future Debt Challenges - Apollo economists highlighted that inflation risks and a growing budget deficit are likely to exert upward pressure on Treasury yields in both the short and long term. The Treasury will need to refinance $9 trillion in debt over the next 12 months, with rising debt repayment costs [7]

高盛预计美联储将于9月份降息，此前预计要到12月才会行动。 美国国债收益率跌幅扩大，10/30年期美债收益率刷新日低。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The downward momentum of U.S. Treasury yields has slowed, with the 10-year Treasury yield currently reported at 4.269% [1] Group 1 - The 10-year Treasury yield is a key indicator of long-term interest rates and economic expectations [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights a decline in U.S. personal spending data for May, which has led to a slight decrease in U.S. Treasury yields [1] - The U.S. dollar index experienced a short-term decline, dropping by 0.16% and currently standing at 97.12 [1]

Core Insights - The PCE data has softened, leading to a slight decline in U.S. Treasury yields [1] Group 1 - The softening of PCE data indicates potential changes in consumer spending patterns [1] - A decrease in U.S. Treasury yields may reflect investor sentiment regarding future economic conditions [1]

美国经济数据好坏参半，美国国债收益率略微上升。 ...

Group 1 - The potential non-farm employment growth in the U.S. is expected to decline significantly from over 100,000 jobs per month to less than 10,000 by the end of next year, leading to a reduction in the potential economic growth rate from slightly above 2% to 1.4-1.6% [1] - The average monthly job creation in the private sector over the past two years has been approximately 172,000, indicating a stark contrast with the anticipated future potential growth [1] - The Bank of Japan's bond purchase plan lacks long-term guidance, creating ongoing market uncertainty regarding the scale of bond purchases post-April 2027 [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's economic projections reveal the highest level of divergence in interest rate paths for 2025 in the past decade, with a median expectation of two rate cuts (50 basis points) but a range from no cuts to a 75 basis point reduction [2] - The disparity between the most common and second most common predictions for interest rate changes has reached 50 basis points, the largest difference in ten years, indicating fundamental disagreements among policymakers on balancing inflation control and economic growth [2] - Despite downgrades in the U.S. credit rating by major agencies, foreign investment in U.S. Treasury bonds remains strong due to the lack of reliable alternatives and the relatively high yields offered [2] Group 3 - Key factors influencing the global market include the potential for tariff agreements among countries, fluctuations in the dollar's exchange rate, and rising risks associated with the U.S. deficit [3] - There is an expectation that major countries may reach partial consensus on tariff issues and extend grace periods while implementing specific industry tariff measures [3] - The U.S. deficit risk is anticipated to rise, which may keep U.S. Treasury yields between 4% and 5% [3]

美国国债收益率在数据公布后略微回落；两年期美国国债收益率跌1.1个基点，报3.939%，10年期国债 收益率现跌2个基点，报4.371%，30年期美国国债收益率跌2.4个基点，报4.869%。 美国30年国债收益率 ...

美国国债收益率下跌，10年期收益率日内跌1.5个基点，至4.409%。 ...