每经AI快讯，7月31日，美国国债收益率目前进一步下跌，10年期国债收益率最新下跌4.2个基点，至 4.336%；2年期国债收益率降至3.928%。 ...

Core Points - The yield on US Treasury bonds continues to decline, with the 10-year Treasury yield dropping by 4.2 basis points to 4.336% [1] - The 2-year Treasury yield has decreased to 3.928% [1]

来源：智昇财论 黄金市场遭遇了"黑色星期三"，现货黄金价格单日下跌超过1.5%，盘中最低触及3268.02美元/盎司，创下6月30日以来新低。美联储维持利率不 变、鲍威尔鹰派讲话打压降息预期，以及美国公布的超预期经济数据，共同构成了金价下挫的"完美风暴"。与此同时，美元指数强势上涨约1%， 达到5月29日以来最高点99.99，进一步加剧了黄金的压力。周四（7月31日）亚市早盘，现货黄金小幅反弹，目前交投于3281.76美元/盎司附近， 投资者还将关注国际贸易局势和美国6月份PCE等数据，周五还将公布非农就业报告。 美联储"鹰爪"撕裂黄金多头 美联储在7月30日的会议中以9:2的投票结果，决定将联邦基金利率维持在4.25%-4.50%的区间不变，这是连续第五次维持利率稳定。然而，会议结 果中两位理事的反对票成为市场焦点。特朗普任命的金融监管副主席鲍曼和理事沃勒明确表示支持降息25个基点，这不仅是30多年来反对票最多 的一次，也反映出美联储内部对政策路径的分歧。美联储主席鲍威尔在随后的新闻发布会上进一步浇灭了市场对9月降息的期待。他明确表示，美 联储尚未就9月会议做出任何决定，并强调将根据未来经济数据谨慎行事。鲍 ...

Group 1 - The two-year U.S. Treasury yield experienced a sharp decline, approaching 3.87% and near flatline [1] - Gold prices maintained a decline of over 0.7%, reported at $3303 [1] - The S&P 500 index rose by 0.29%, while the Nasdaq increased by over 0.5% [1] - The Federal Reserve announced to maintain its current monetary policy stance [1]

每经AI快讯，7月30日，美国国债收益率上涨，10年期国债收益率最新上涨2.6个基点，至4.354%。 ...

智通财经7月30日电，美国国债收益率上涨，10年期国债收益率最新上涨2.6个基点，至4.354%。 ...

美国国债收益率延续下跌势头，30年期国债收益率创7月11日以来最低。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a decline in gold prices, with the December 2025 gold futures dropping by $24.4 to $3370.9 per ounce, marking a 0.72% decrease and reaching a two-week low of $3357 during the trading session [1] - The increase in the US dollar index by 1.02% to 98.634, alongside a slight rise in US Treasury yields, has put pressure on gold prices [1] - Enhanced overall market risk appetite is also seen as a negative factor for gold [1] Group 2 - A new trade agreement between the US and the EU was announced, which includes a 15% tariff on EU products entering the US and a commitment from the EU to invest $600 billion and purchase $750 billion worth of US energy [1] - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is set to begin, with expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain the current federal funds rate despite pressure from President Trump for a rate cut [1] - Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, has warned about the global economic situation and suggested that investors allocate about 15% of their portfolios to gold or cryptocurrencies as alternative currencies [2]

Group 1 - International gold is currently trading around $3359.85 per ounce, with a slight decline of 0.24% [1] - The highest price reached was $3373.25 per ounce, while the lowest was $3357.70 per ounce, indicating a short-term bearish trend for gold [1] - Gold prices have been suppressed below the $3400 mark for two consecutive trading days, with buyers entering around $3350 [5] Group 2 - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose by 3 basis points to 4.416%, contributing to an increase in the real yield, which reached 2.046% [3] - The U.S. dollar index strengthened, closing up 0.28% at 97.48 [3] - The European Central Bank decided to maintain key interest rates, indicating a high threshold for any potential rate cuts in September [3] Group 3 - Market expectations suggest that the Federal Reserve is likely to keep interest rates unchanged in the upcoming meeting, with a 96% probability for no change [3] - Gold prices are expected to remain in a consolidation phase ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting, with potential resistance at $3400 and targets at $3438 and $3452 [5] - A drop below $3350 could challenge the 20-day and 50-day moving averages, located at $3347 and $3341 respectively [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on emerging market currencies such as Turkey, Egypt, Chile, and South Korea, which are expected to stabilize their currencies and attract capital inflows [4]. Core Insights - Despite strong recent employment data in the U.S., the GDP growth forecast for the end of 2025 is only 30 basis points, with a 40% chance of a mild recession, leading to a continued weakening of the dollar [1][2]. - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is expected to decline to 4% by year-end, which will benefit fixed income products, including local bonds in emerging markets [1][5]. - A 1% change in the broad dollar index typically results in an additional inflow of $35-40 billion into emerging market local currency indices [5]. Summary by Sections Economic Outlook - The report predicts a weak global economy and trade tensions impacting emerging market currencies, but highlights potential strength in specific countries with significant domestic reforms [1][4]. - The dollar's recent rebound is attributed to short positions and strong employment data, but this is expected to fade over time [2]. Emerging Market Currencies - The euro is projected to approach 1.20 against the dollar by the end of 2025, with potential for further appreciation [3]. - Countries like Turkey, Egypt, Chile, and South Korea are identified as having strong currencies due to domestic reforms [4]. Fixed Income Market - The anticipated decline in U.S. Treasury yields and a weaker dollar are expected to support local bond markets in emerging economies [5]. - Historical data suggests that significant capital inflows could return to emerging markets if the U.S. economy slows while the Eurozone maintains growth [5].