Happy Friday, traders. Welcome to our weekly market wrap, where we take a look back at these last five trading days with a focus on the market news, economic data, and headlines that had the most impact on gold prices and other key correlated assets— and may continue to in the future. Key Takeaways Here’s what you need to know: Gold is on pace for a roughly $50/oz weekly gain, but has traded mostly flat near $4,340/oz after an early-week push higher. A wave of weak U.S. data (jobs, unemployment, and r ...

市场焦点还包括即将公布的美国密歇根大学消费者信心指数及加拿大零售销售数据，可能为银价提供新的方向指引。 【最新国际白银行情解析】 国际白银再次在向上倾斜的100小时简单移动平均线(SMA)附近找到相当的支撑，保持买方的控制。它在64.75美元提供 动态支撑，保持在这一上升均线之上将保留看涨基调。移动平均线趋同/背离(MACD)直方图已转为正值并在扩展，表 明MACD线已在零水平附近穿越信号线。动能改善，持续推入正区域将增强上行偏向。 相对强弱指数(RSI)位于56，处于中性至看涨状态，低于超买水平，支持进一步上涨的空间，如果买方保持控制。然 而，日线RSI显示出超伸展状态，这使得在进行任何进一步升值操作之前，等待一些短期盘整或适度回调是明智的。这 反过来表明，白银可能在66.50-66.55美元区域面临一些中间障碍。 今日周五(12月19日)欧盘时段，国际白银目前交投于65.92一线下方，今日开盘于65.44美元/盎司，截至发稿，国际白银 暂报65.66美元/盎司，上涨0.33%，最高触及66.01美元/盎司，最低下探64.46美元/盎司，目前来看，国际白银盘内短线 偏向看跌走势。 【要闻速递】 周四公布的最 ...

Core Insights - Ireland's retail sales experienced a decline of 0.5% in October compared to the previous month, indicating a short-term contraction in consumer spending [1] - Despite the monthly decline, retail sales were 2.1% higher than the same period last year, suggesting a year-over-year growth trend [1] Summary by Category - **Monthly Performance** - Retail sales fell by 0.5% in October from September [1] - **Year-over-Year Performance** - Retail sales were 2.1% higher than in October of the previous year [1]

Core Insights - The German Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) is set to release the retail sales report, with market expectations indicating a month-on-month (MoM) growth of 0.2% for October, consistent with previous figures [2] - The retail sales data is a crucial indicator of consumer demand and economic activity, and its performance could influence the euro's strength against the US dollar [3] Retail Sales and Currency Impact - If actual retail sales exceed expectations, it may provide short-term support for the euro, potentially allowing the euro/USD exchange rate to recover from daily losses [3] - Conversely, if the data falls short of expectations, the downward pressure on the euro/USD may be limited due to the European Central Bank's stance on maintaining stable interest rates amid uncertainty [3] - The market will also focus on the release of Germany's unemployment rate and initial consumer price index (CPI) data on the same day, which will contribute to a comprehensive assessment of economic health [3] Dollar Dynamics and External Factors - The euro/USD exchange rate is influenced not only by eurozone data but also by fluctuations in the US dollar [4] - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December have significantly increased, with over 87% probability for a 25 basis point cut, compared to 39% a week prior [4] - This expectation may suppress the strength of the US dollar, providing upward momentum for the euro/USD exchange rate [4] Technical Analysis - The euro/USD has recently shown a volatile trend, currently slightly down to around 1.1590, ending a three-day upward streak [5] - Key resistance levels are identified at the 50-day moving average of 1.1606 and the November 13 high of 1.1655, while initial support is noted at the 9-day moving average of 1.1571 and the three-month low of 1.1468 [5] - Technical patterns suggest that the exchange rate may continue to fluctuate within a range in the short term [5]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that the GBP/USD pair experienced a decline despite a surprising increase in UK retail sales, which rose by 0.5% in September against an expected decrease of 0.2% [1] - The focus is now shifting towards the upcoming UK PMI and US CPI data, with the market awaiting the release of the US Consumer Price Index for September [1] - The GBP/USD pair has been trading in a narrow range around 1.3350, with four consecutive days of negative closing, indicating a prevailing bearish trend [1] Group 2 - Technical analysis shows that GBP/USD is trading around 1.3348, slightly lower than the opening price of 1.3351, indicating a lack of significant daily movement [2] - The short-term trend remains bearish as the spot price is below the declining moving averages, with the 20-period EMA at 1.3368, 50-period EMA at 1.3381, and 100-period EMA at 1.3398 [2] - Initial resistance levels are identified at the moving averages, while key support levels are at 1.3292, 1.3244, and 1.3196-1.3200, which coincide with Fibonacci retracement levels [2]

Group 1 - Gold prices are nearing historical highs around $3,700, driven by rising expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, which negatively impacts the dollar and benefits gold as a non-yielding asset [1][4] - The XAU/USD pair shows strong upward momentum despite being in an overbought condition, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) approaching 80, indicating potential for further gains [3] - Support levels for gold are identified at $3,642, while resistance levels are noted at $3,720, reflecting the current trading dynamics [4] Group 2 - The market is closely monitoring the Federal Reserve's upcoming policy decision, with expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut in 2025, influenced by recent U.S. inflation data [4] - The decline in U.S. Treasury yields, currently at 4.03%, has contributed to the rise in gold prices, as lower yields make gold more attractive [5] - Upcoming economic data releases, including U.S. retail sales and employment reports from Australia, are anticipated to impact market sentiment and gold prices [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the market's anticipation of upcoming retail sales data and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, with expectations leaning towards a 25 basis point rate cut [1] - Konstantinos Chrysikos from Kudotrade indicates that weak retail sales data could support further easing policies, potentially putting pressure on bond yields and the dollar [1] - The labor market data is showing signs of rapid deterioration, leading the market to increasingly price in expectations for rate cuts not only in September but also in October and December [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around the impact of recent economic data on gold prices, particularly the expectation of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, which is seen as a catalyst for gold's potential upward movement [1][2] - The latest inflation data has strengthened market expectations for a rate cut, with the probability of a cut rising from 86% to 94% according to the CME FedWatch tool, driven by weak employment data and stable inflation [2] - The extension of the US-China tariff truce for 90 days until November 10 has provided stability to the gold market, enhancing its appeal as a hedge against geopolitical risks [2] Group 2 - Technical analysis indicates that gold prices are currently fluctuating around the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, with signs of potential upward movement on the daily chart, while the 4-hour chart shows a more bearish outlook [3][5] - The resistance level for gold is identified at around $3360, with a potential for a downward trend if this level is breached [3][5] - Suggested trading strategies include short positions on rebounds near $3357-$3360 and long positions on pullbacks near $3315-$3320, emphasizing the importance of stop-loss measures [4][5]

Group 1 - LME copper prices increased by $31.50, or 0.33%, closing at $9,666.50 per ton on July 17, driven by better-than-expected U.S. retail sales data, overshadowing concerns over rising copper inventories and uncertainties regarding U.S. import tariffs [1][3] - The available copper inventory on the LME has surged by 70% since the announcement of U.S. copper tariffs, reaching 110,950 tons, the highest level since April 30, alleviating supply concerns [3] - The current spot copper price has shifted to a discount of $53 per ton compared to the three-month futures, a significant change from a premium of $320 per ton three weeks ago [4] Group 2 - U.S. retail sales rebounded more than expected in June, indicating a recovery in economic momentum, which has improved confidence in copper, widely used in electricity and construction [3] - China's refined copper production for June 2025 is projected to be 1.302 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 14.2%, with a cumulative production of 7.363 million tons for the first half of the year, reflecting a 9.5% year-on-year growth [4] - There remains significant uncertainty regarding U.S. tariffs, with the market awaiting confirmation of the August 1 deadline and the list of copper products subject to tariffs, leading to speculation that major copper-producing countries may receive exemptions [4]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield experienced a decline, indicating a downward trend in bond yields, particularly influenced by the upcoming retail sales data release [1] Group 1: Treasury Yields - The 10-year Treasury yield fell by 5.94 basis points, closing at 4.3869%, and was in a downward trajectory throughout the day [1] - The yield reached a daily low of 4.3770% just before the release of U.S. retail sales data [1] - The 2-year Treasury yield decreased by 1.88 basis points, settling at 3.9476%, with a trading range of 3.97749% to 3.9035% during the day [1] Group 2: Market Reaction - The release of retail sales data caused a sharp drop in the yields, which then rebounded slightly, coinciding with a brief uptick in U.S. stock markets [1]