Group 1 - LME copper prices increased by $31.50, or 0.33%, closing at $9,666.50 per ton on July 17, driven by better-than-expected U.S. retail sales data, overshadowing concerns over rising copper inventories and uncertainties regarding U.S. import tariffs [1][3] - The available copper inventory on the LME has surged by 70% since the announcement of U.S. copper tariffs, reaching 110,950 tons, the highest level since April 30, alleviating supply concerns [3] - The current spot copper price has shifted to a discount of $53 per ton compared to the three-month futures, a significant change from a premium of $320 per ton three weeks ago [4] Group 2 - U.S. retail sales rebounded more than expected in June, indicating a recovery in economic momentum, which has improved confidence in copper, widely used in electricity and construction [3] - China's refined copper production for June 2025 is projected to be 1.302 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 14.2%, with a cumulative production of 7.363 million tons for the first half of the year, reflecting a 9.5% year-on-year growth [4] - There remains significant uncertainty regarding U.S. tariffs, with the market awaiting confirmation of the August 1 deadline and the list of copper products subject to tariffs, leading to speculation that major copper-producing countries may receive exemptions [4]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield experienced a decline, indicating a downward trend in bond yields, particularly influenced by the upcoming retail sales data release [1] Group 1: Treasury Yields - The 10-year Treasury yield fell by 5.94 basis points, closing at 4.3869%, and was in a downward trajectory throughout the day [1] - The yield reached a daily low of 4.3770% just before the release of U.S. retail sales data [1] - The 2-year Treasury yield decreased by 1.88 basis points, settling at 3.9476%, with a trading range of 3.97749% to 3.9035% during the day [1] Group 2: Market Reaction - The release of retail sales data caused a sharp drop in the yields, which then rebounded slightly, coinciding with a brief uptick in U.S. stock markets [1]

Core Insights - The article discusses the intense competition in gold order flows following disappointing U.S. retail sales data, indicating a significant market reaction [1]. Group 1 - The 15-minute chart of order flows shows a fierce battle at the current price level after the U.S. retail sales data fell short of expectations [1].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the British pound is influenced primarily by fundamental factors, with limited high-impact financial data released recently [1] - The upcoming final Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for May, particularly in the services sector, and May's housing price indicators are expected to be significant for the pound's movement [1] - Market expectations suggest that the Bank of England may lower interest rates once or even twice before the end of the year [1] Group 2 - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) and retail sales data for April exceeded expectations, potentially easing the market's dovish outlook on the Bank of England [1] - The speech planned by Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Mann on Tuesday is a key event for monetary policy, with hawkish tones likely to support the pound [1] - The call from Bank of England Governor Bailey for stronger ties between the UK and the EU remains a primary concern for pound traders, especially in light of disappointing UK-US trade agreements [1] Group 3 - The UK government's austerity measures may exert pressure on the pound [1] - Analysts believe that the intentions of the Bank of England will be crucial for the pound's movement in the coming week, alongside external fundamental factors from the US and EU [1] - The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is struggling to maintain above 60.00, with a potential decline to the 40.00-60.00 range signaling the end of bullish momentum [1]