Group 1 - The core point of the news is that the GBP/USD pair experienced a decline despite a surprising increase in UK retail sales, which rose by 0.5% in September against an expected decrease of 0.2% [1] - The focus is now shifting towards the upcoming UK PMI and US CPI data, with the market awaiting the release of the US Consumer Price Index for September [1] - The GBP/USD pair has been trading in a narrow range around 1.3350, with four consecutive days of negative closing, indicating a prevailing bearish trend [1] Group 2 - Technical analysis shows that GBP/USD is trading around 1.3348, slightly lower than the opening price of 1.3351, indicating a lack of significant daily movement [2] - The short-term trend remains bearish as the spot price is below the declining moving averages, with the 20-period EMA at 1.3368, 50-period EMA at 1.3381, and 100-period EMA at 1.3398 [2] - Initial resistance levels are identified at the moving averages, while key support levels are at 1.3292, 1.3244, and 1.3196-1.3200, which coincide with Fibonacci retracement levels [2]

Group 1 - Gold prices are nearing historical highs around $3,700, driven by rising expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, which negatively impacts the dollar and benefits gold as a non-yielding asset [1][4] - The XAU/USD pair shows strong upward momentum despite being in an overbought condition, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) approaching 80, indicating potential for further gains [3] - Support levels for gold are identified at $3,642, while resistance levels are noted at $3,720, reflecting the current trading dynamics [4] Group 2 - The market is closely monitoring the Federal Reserve's upcoming policy decision, with expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut in 2025, influenced by recent U.S. inflation data [4] - The decline in U.S. Treasury yields, currently at 4.03%, has contributed to the rise in gold prices, as lower yields make gold more attractive [5] - Upcoming economic data releases, including U.S. retail sales and employment reports from Australia, are anticipated to impact market sentiment and gold prices [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the market's anticipation of upcoming retail sales data and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, with expectations leaning towards a 25 basis point rate cut [1] - Konstantinos Chrysikos from Kudotrade indicates that weak retail sales data could support further easing policies, potentially putting pressure on bond yields and the dollar [1] - The labor market data is showing signs of rapid deterioration, leading the market to increasingly price in expectations for rate cuts not only in September but also in October and December [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around the impact of recent economic data on gold prices, particularly the expectation of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, which is seen as a catalyst for gold's potential upward movement [1][2] - The latest inflation data has strengthened market expectations for a rate cut, with the probability of a cut rising from 86% to 94% according to the CME FedWatch tool, driven by weak employment data and stable inflation [2] - The extension of the US-China tariff truce for 90 days until November 10 has provided stability to the gold market, enhancing its appeal as a hedge against geopolitical risks [2] Group 2 - Technical analysis indicates that gold prices are currently fluctuating around the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, with signs of potential upward movement on the daily chart, while the 4-hour chart shows a more bearish outlook [3][5] - The resistance level for gold is identified at around $3360, with a potential for a downward trend if this level is breached [3][5] - Suggested trading strategies include short positions on rebounds near $3357-$3360 and long positions on pullbacks near $3315-$3320, emphasizing the importance of stop-loss measures [4][5]

Group 1 - LME copper prices increased by $31.50, or 0.33%, closing at $9,666.50 per ton on July 17, driven by better-than-expected U.S. retail sales data, overshadowing concerns over rising copper inventories and uncertainties regarding U.S. import tariffs [1][3] - The available copper inventory on the LME has surged by 70% since the announcement of U.S. copper tariffs, reaching 110,950 tons, the highest level since April 30, alleviating supply concerns [3] - The current spot copper price has shifted to a discount of $53 per ton compared to the three-month futures, a significant change from a premium of $320 per ton three weeks ago [4] Group 2 - U.S. retail sales rebounded more than expected in June, indicating a recovery in economic momentum, which has improved confidence in copper, widely used in electricity and construction [3] - China's refined copper production for June 2025 is projected to be 1.302 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 14.2%, with a cumulative production of 7.363 million tons for the first half of the year, reflecting a 9.5% year-on-year growth [4] - There remains significant uncertainty regarding U.S. tariffs, with the market awaiting confirmation of the August 1 deadline and the list of copper products subject to tariffs, leading to speculation that major copper-producing countries may receive exemptions [4]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield experienced a decline, indicating a downward trend in bond yields, particularly influenced by the upcoming retail sales data release [1] Group 1: Treasury Yields - The 10-year Treasury yield fell by 5.94 basis points, closing at 4.3869%, and was in a downward trajectory throughout the day [1] - The yield reached a daily low of 4.3770% just before the release of U.S. retail sales data [1] - The 2-year Treasury yield decreased by 1.88 basis points, settling at 3.9476%, with a trading range of 3.97749% to 3.9035% during the day [1] Group 2: Market Reaction - The release of retail sales data caused a sharp drop in the yields, which then rebounded slightly, coinciding with a brief uptick in U.S. stock markets [1]

Core Insights - The article discusses the intense competition in gold order flows following disappointing U.S. retail sales data, indicating a significant market reaction [1]. Group 1 - The 15-minute chart of order flows shows a fierce battle at the current price level after the U.S. retail sales data fell short of expectations [1].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the British pound is influenced primarily by fundamental factors, with limited high-impact financial data released recently [1] - The upcoming final Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for May, particularly in the services sector, and May's housing price indicators are expected to be significant for the pound's movement [1] - Market expectations suggest that the Bank of England may lower interest rates once or even twice before the end of the year [1] Group 2 - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) and retail sales data for April exceeded expectations, potentially easing the market's dovish outlook on the Bank of England [1] - The speech planned by Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Mann on Tuesday is a key event for monetary policy, with hawkish tones likely to support the pound [1] - The call from Bank of England Governor Bailey for stronger ties between the UK and the EU remains a primary concern for pound traders, especially in light of disappointing UK-US trade agreements [1] Group 3 - The UK government's austerity measures may exert pressure on the pound [1] - Analysts believe that the intentions of the Bank of England will be crucial for the pound's movement in the coming week, alongside external fundamental factors from the US and EU [1] - The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is struggling to maintain above 60.00, with a potential decline to the 40.00-60.00 range signaling the end of bullish momentum [1]