Core Viewpoint - UBS analysts suggest that the current strength of the US dollar is likely a temporary adjustment and does not indicate a reversal of its recent weakening trend [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Investors may have closed short positions on the dollar ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting, where interest rates were maintained [1] - The expectation is that once the Federal Reserve signals a potential restart of interest rate cuts in the coming months, the dollar's weakening trend will re-emerge [1] Group 2: Economic Forecast - UBS anticipates that US economic growth will further slow down in the second half of the year compared to the first half [1] - The firm projects that the euro will rise to 1.20 against the dollar later this year [1]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Decisions - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate in the range of 4.25%-4.5%[3] - Two Federal Reserve governors voted against the decision, advocating for a 25 basis point rate cut[6] - The assessment of economic conditions was downgraded to "growth of economic activity moderated" from "expand at a solid pace"[6] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Non-farm payrolls increased by 147,000 in June, with half of the new jobs contributed by the government, indicating a slowdown in private sector job growth[7] - The labor force participation rate has declined, and wage growth is slowing, suggesting a weakening labor market[11] - Consumer spending may have started to decline, with Q2 private domestic final purchases showing the lowest annualized growth rate since Q1 2023[13] Group 3: Inflation and Market Reactions - Inflation showed signs of rebounding in June, driven by rising energy and core commodity prices, while core services inflation remained stable[11] - Following the press conference, the market's expectation for a September rate cut dropped from over 60% to below 50%[14] - The uncertainty surrounding economic prospects remains high, with short-term inflation risks persisting due to tariff policies[14] Group 4: Risks and Outlook - Risks include potential unexpected increases in U.S. inflation, tighter monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, and greater-than-expected economic downturns[15] - The overall economic outlook suggests continued slowing growth in the U.S. economy, influenced by policy and economic uncertainties[13]

Core Viewpoint - The impact of tariff increases on U.S. inflation is expected to peak around the end of the year, as tariffs typically take several months to fully affect consumer prices [1] Economic Outlook - The core inflation rate in the U.S. is projected to be around 3.0% this year, which will compress real income and hinder economic growth [1] - The company anticipates that U.S. economic growth will further slow down but is expected to avoid recession, with a projected real GDP growth rate of approximately 1.0% for this year [1] - As tariff pressures ease, a rebound in growth to about 1.8% is expected next year [1]

Economic Growth and Consumer Spending - The U.S. GDP for Q2 grew at an annualized rate of 3%, reversing the -0.5% contraction in Q1 and exceeding market expectations of 2.6% [2][3] - Key factors for the strong growth included a significant decline in imports and a faster increase in consumer spending, with net exports contributing 5 percentage points to GDP [3] - Consumer spending grew by 1.4%, slightly below the expected 1.5%, marking the slowest growth in two consecutive quarters [3] Inflation and Price Indices - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for Q2 showed an annualized quarter-on-quarter initial value of 2.5%, down from 3.5% but above the expected 2.3%, indicating a rebound in inflation [2][3] - The overall PCE price increased by 2.5% over the past 12 months, with core PCE rising by 2.7%, reflecting changes in price composition [5] Employment Data - The ADP employment report for July indicated an increase of 104,000 jobs, surpassing the expectation of 76,000, although still below last year's average levels [3][5] - The labor market remains cautious due to uncertainties surrounding tariff policies, leading to a generally weak demand for labor [3] Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve decided to pause interest rate cuts during the July meeting, with Chairman Powell indicating that it is too early to predict a rate cut in September [4][5] - Powell noted that the current interest rate level is appropriate given the uncertainties surrounding tariffs and inflation [5] Currency and Market Dynamics - The U.S. dollar index surged over 1% on July 31, approaching the 100 mark, while U.S. Treasury yields rose across the board [2][6] - The dollar's decline earlier in the year was attributed to weak economic data and concerns over a potential recession, but recent strong economic indicators have alleviated these fears [6][7] - The resolution of trade tensions and established tariff rates among developed economies have contributed to a more stable outlook for the dollar [6][7]

Economic Overview - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25-4.5% after the July FOMC meeting, indicating a low probability of rate cuts in September[2] - The U.S. GDP growth rate for Q2 was reported at 3%, significantly higher than Q1's -0.5% and above the 2024 forecast of 2.8%[6] - A 30% decline in imports contributed positively to GDP growth, while private investment negatively impacted GDP by 3.1% in Q2[6] Employment and Inflation - The labor market remains solid, with an average monthly job addition of 150,000 and an unemployment rate steady at 4.1%[9] - Inflation is still above the 2% target, with Powell noting that service sector inflation is easing but tariffs are pushing up prices on certain goods[12][13] Monetary Policy Outlook - The likelihood of a rate cut in September is low, with Powell emphasizing the need for more economic data to assess the impact of tariffs[14] - The Fed's dual mandate focuses on price stability and maximum employment, rather than economic growth alone[14] - There were dissenting votes from two Fed officials advocating for a 25 basis point cut, marking the first time since 2020 that more than one official opposed Powell[14] Future Projections - The Fed may delay rate cuts until Q4, as it requires additional economic data to evaluate the effects of recent tariff negotiations[15] - If trade agreements are reached by August, the earliest potential rate cut could occur in October[15]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain interest rates in the range of 4.25% to 4.50%, marking the fifth consecutive meeting without a rate cut, despite pressure from President Trump for a reduction [2][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Decision - The Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee had 12 voting members, with 9 supporting the decision to keep rates unchanged, while 2 members voted for a 25 basis point cut [4]. - This marks a rare occurrence where both the President and a Federal Reserve member publicly advocate for a rate cut, reflecting the pressure from Trump on Fed Chairman Powell [5]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Recent economic indicators show a slowdown in economic activity in the first half of the year, with the unemployment rate remaining low and inflation still high, indicating uncertainty in the economic outlook [5][6]. - The second quarter GDP growth was reported at an annualized rate of 3%, significantly higher than the first quarter's -0.5%, but this growth was primarily due to a reduction in imports rather than a robust economic recovery [9]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Powell indicated that the decision for the September meeting will depend on upcoming employment and inflation data, suggesting that no immediate rate cut is guaranteed [6][7]. - Analysts suggest that while there may be short-term inflation risks, the overall economic growth is expected to continue slowing, with potential rate cuts later in the year [10][11].

对于本次美联储会议上出现的罕见分歧——两名理事沃勒和鲍曼投下反对票，要求立即降息25个基点，鲍威尔并未回避。他表示，这是一次"很 好的会议"，两位反对者清晰地阐述了他们的立场，并称这种坦诚的交流是积极的。 面对近期美国政府加征关税可能带来的通胀压力，鲍威尔的态度审慎。他指出，部分商品价格已反映出关税影响，但关税对整体通胀的影响仍有 待观察，目前估计核心通胀中有30%至40%来自关税。他警告称，关税的影响可能是"短暂的"，但也可能引发"更持久的"通胀变化，美联储的职 责是确保长期通胀预期保持稳定。（文馨） 鲍威尔在发布会上强调："我们尚未就9月做出任何决定。我们不会提前决定。我们将在做出决策时，综合考虑这些信息以及我们获得的其他所有 信息。"他指出，从现在到9月会议之间，决策者将获得两轮完整的就业和通胀数据，这些将是评估经济状况和风险平衡的关键。 【环球网财经综合报道】当地时间7月30日，美联储主席鲍威尔在利率会议后的新闻发布会上，为备受关注的9月政策会议定下了"观望"的基调。 他明确表示，决策者尚未就9月是否降息做出任何决定，未来货币政策将完全取决于未来几个月的经济数据。鲍威尔也回应了近期关税政策对通 胀的潜 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at a target range of 4.25%-4.5%, with two members voting against this decision, advocating for a 25 basis point cut, marking the first dissent since 1993 [1] Economic Conditions - The Federal Reserve's assessment of economic conditions was downgraded to "growth of economic activity moderated" from "expand at a solid pace," indicating a slowdown in economic growth [6] - The labor market is showing signs of cooling, with June's non-farm payrolls increasing slightly to 147,000, but half of this increase was due to government jobs, while private sector employment declined [2][5] - The labor force participation rate is decreasing, and wage growth is slowing, suggesting a weakening labor market [2][5] Inflation Trends - Inflation is experiencing short-term rebound risks, with June inflation rising primarily due to increases in energy and core goods, while core services inflation remains stable [2][5] - The Federal Reserve maintains that inflation is still somewhat elevated, and the process of returning to target levels is halfway complete [4] - Tariff costs are gradually being passed on to consumers, but the impact of tariffs on inflation is expected to be temporary [4][5] Market Reactions - Following the Federal Reserve's announcement, the market's expectation for a rate cut in September significantly decreased from over 60% to below 50% [7] - The stock market experienced a decline, while bond yields rose and the dollar index increased, reflecting market uncertainty regarding inflation and economic conditions [7]

Core Insights - The U.S. economy showed signs of recovery in Q2, with GDP growth of 3% compared to a contraction of 0.5% in Q1 [1] - Consumer spending increased by 1.4%, marking the weakest performance in two consecutive quarters since the pandemic [1] - Net exports contributed positively to GDP growth, adding 5 percentage points, reversing the previous three months' negative impact [1] Economic Activity - The rebound in economic activity was attributed to a slight recovery in consumer spending and a decrease in the import surge that had previously inflated [1] - Business investment growth has also slowed down, indicating a cautious outlook among companies [1] Market Reaction - Following the release of the Q2 GDP report, U.S. Treasury prices fell, and the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note rose by approximately 3 basis points to 4.35% [1]

金十数据7月30日讯，机构分析称，与一季度的情况一样，二季度主要GDP数据被贸易严重扭曲。经济 学家敦促关注面向国内私人买家的最终销售，这被经济学家和政策制定者视为美国经济增长的晴雨表。 该指标继第一季度增长1.9%后，第二季度增长1.2%。这是自2022年第四季度以来国内需求增长最慢的 一次。此外，经济学家预计下半年经济增长乏力。尽管白宫已经宣布了一系列贸易协议，但经济学家 说，美国的实际关税税率仍然是自上世纪30年代以来最高的水平之一，并指出，美国约60%的进口仍未 受到协议的影响。 分析：美国二季度数据严重扭曲 预计下半年经济增长仍将乏力 ...