12月4日，美东时间周三，高盛研究公司首席经济学家哈祖斯（Jan Hatzius）在其最新的"全球观点"报 告中写到，他们认为虽然美联储在今年12月很可能会降息，但2026年的货币政策前景则较为难以预测。 他们目前的假设是，美联储将在明年上半年放缓宽松步伐，同时美国的经济增长将重新加速且通胀将降 温。 哈祖斯提到，近期延迟发布的9月非农就业报告显示出，美国劳动力市场明显出现了降温迹象，这可能 意味着在美联储12降息25基点已经基本板上钉钉。 他补充道，下一次非农就业报告定于12月16日发布，下一次消费者价格通胀（CPI）数据将于12月18日 公布，而美联储宣布利率决议的时间是12月10日——这意味着12月降息的可能性基本不大会受到更多数 据因素的影响。 2026 年美联储预计会降息几次？ 相比于12月，美联储明年的降息前景就显得迷雾重重。高盛研究公司预测，由于关税对经济的影响减 轻、减税以及金融环境宽松等因素，美国经济在2026年将有望加速增长，增速或达到2%至2.5%。 "我们的经济学家预计，这些因素将促进就业增长，并将失业率稳定在略高于今年9月4.4%这一水平的 适度高位。" 哈祖斯预计，美联储将在明年1 ...

Core Viewpoint - US Treasury Secretary Bessent predicts a 4% economic growth for the US by 2026, which has garnered significant market attention [1] Group 1: Economic Growth Predictions - Bessent emphasizes that 2026 will see substantial tax refunds and a combination of "real wage growth" and "low-inflation growth" [1] - The OECD forecasts that the US economy will grow by 2% in 2025, an increase from the previous estimate of 1.8% [1] - The anticipated economic growth in 2026 is projected at 1.7% due to enhanced tariff effects, contrasting sharply with Bessent's 4% prediction [2] Group 2: Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - The OECD predicts that developed economies will end the current rate-cutting cycle by the end of 2026, with the Federal Reserve expected to lower rates only twice before then [1] - The Federal Reserve is tasked with balancing inflation pressures from tariffs against a weakening labor market, which will influence future economic trends [1] - The new Federal Reserve Chair, to be appointed by Bessent, will play a crucial role in shaping monetary policy that aligns with fiscal policy to achieve growth expectations [2] Group 3: Technological Impact on Growth - Investment related to artificial intelligence is driving industrial production growth in the US and many Asian economies, injecting new momentum into economic development [2]

Economic Outlook - Economists have raised their median forecast for U.S. economic growth next year to 2%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month and a significant rise from 1.3% six months ago [4] - The main drivers of economic growth are expected to be personal consumption and business investment, although nearly all economists anticipate that current tariff policies will drag down economic growth by at least 0.25 percentage points [4] Employment Market - The U.S. job market is projected to add approximately 64,000 jobs per month, which is slightly above the current year's end level but still far below recent norms [7] - The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 4.5% at the beginning of next year and remain within this range throughout the year [7] Inflation and Monetary Policy - Inflation is expected to decline to 2.9% by the end of this year and only slightly decrease to 2.6% next year, with new import tariffs contributing an estimated 0.25 to 0.7 percentage points to inflation [7] - Economists predict that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December and an additional 50 basis points throughout next year, gradually moving towards a neutral rate [7] Trade Policy Impact - Trade policies are seen as a key variable that could disrupt growth prospects, potentially increasing costs and compressing corporate profit margins while also limiting consumer spending [10] - Market participants are advised to closely monitor upcoming data releases to verify whether these economic forecasts align with actual economic performance [10]

来源：格隆汇APP 格隆汇11月23日丨白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特表示，新的美联储领导层可能会降息。可能会 在新年的前后决定美联储主席（的任命）。美国第四季度经济预计将增长1.5%至2%。 ...

11月21日，美国三大股指全线收涨，道琼斯工业指数涨1.08%报46245.41点，标普500指数涨0.98%报6602.99点，纳斯达克指数涨0.88%报22273.08点。本 周，道琼斯工业指数跌1.91%，标普500指数跌1.95%，纳斯达克指数跌2.74%。 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 年初至今 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 道琼斯工业平均 | 46245.41 | 493.15 | 1.08% | 8.70% | | 纳斯达克指数 | 22273.08 | 195.03 | 0.88% | 15.34% | | 标普500 | 6602.99 | 64.23 | 0.98% | 12.26% | 欧洲三大股指收盘涨跌不一，德国DAX指数跌0.8%报23091.87点，法国CAC40指数涨0.02%报7982.65点，英国富时100指数涨0.13%报9539.71点。本周， 德国DAX指数跌3.29%，法国CAC40指数跌2.29%，英国富时100指数跌1.64%。 中概股多数上涨，纳斯达克中国金龙指数涨1.23%。个股方面，涂鸦智能涨超6% ...

Group 1 - The dollar index (DXY) has slightly risen to around 99.55 during the Asian trading session, primarily driven by the easing of U.S. government shutdown risks [2] - Market sentiment has improved as investors anticipate the passage of government funding legislation, leading to a decrease in risk aversion and a mild recovery in the dollar against major currencies [2] - The fluctuations in the dollar index are influenced by multiple factors, including U.S. macroeconomic data, fiscal policy developments, and Federal Reserve monetary policy expectations [2] Group 2 - Recent economic data has shown weakness, putting pressure on growth momentum, with U.S. consumer confidence dropping to a three-and-a-half-year low in early November [3] - The labor market is also showing signs of cooling, with private sector employment decreasing by an average of approximately 11,000 jobs per week over the four weeks ending October 25, indicating declining confidence in hiring [3] - Market focus is on upcoming speeches from Federal Reserve officials, which may provide signals regarding future interest rate directions, influencing the dollar's short-term volatility [3] Group 3 - Some forex strategists suggest that the easing of government shutdown risks is more of a short-term sentiment driver, while the medium-term outlook for the dollar will depend on actual economic data performance [4] - Key indicators such as inflation pressure, employment changes, and manufacturing activity will be crucial for assessing the Federal Reserve's future policy [4] - International factors, including the relatively loose monetary policies in the Eurozone and Japan, provide some support for the dollar, but a continued slowdown in U.S. economic growth could diminish the attractiveness of U.S. Treasury yields, weakening the dollar's interest rate advantage [4]

Core Viewpoint - The President of the St. Louis Federal Reserve, Alberto Musalem, predicts a significant rebound in the U.S. economy in the first quarter of next year, driven by several positive factors including the end of government shutdowns, gradual implementation of fiscal support measures, the effects of previous interest rate cuts, and a moderately relaxed regulatory environment [1] Economic Outlook - Musalem emphasizes that the anticipated economic activity boost is expected to accelerate growth [1] - He notes that the current monetary policy is nearing a level where it no longer exerts downward pressure on inflation, indicating limited room for further rate cuts without risking economic imbalance [3] Inflation Concerns - Musalem reaffirms a strong commitment to restoring the inflation rate to the 2% target, highlighting that approximately 40% of current inflation is driven by tariff factors [4] - He points out persistent challenges from rising service prices and increasing financial pressure on middle- and low-income households, evidenced by a rise in reliance on food assistance and utility bill aid [4] Employment Market - Despite a slowdown in labor conditions and a potential temporary rise in unemployment due to government shutdowns, Musalem expects overall employment to remain stable near "full employment" levels [5] - Concerns are raised regarding high asset valuations, with reference to the Federal Reserve's recent Financial Stability Report indicating that U.S. housing prices and financial markets remain elevated compared to historical standards [5] Policy Balance - Musalem's statements highlight the challenge faced by the Federal Reserve in balancing economic growth support with inflation control, suggesting that policymakers will need to carefully assess data to ensure decisions promote recovery while maintaining price stability [6]

Group 1 - The U.S. federal government is experiencing a record "shutdown," impacting various sectors and delaying the release of key economic data [1] - The Senate voted on a motion to fund certain federal employees during the "shutdown," which did not pass [1] - The White House's National Economic Council Director stated that the economic impact of the "shutdown" could reduce fourth-quarter growth expectations by about half [1] Group 2 - The University of Michigan reported that the preliminary consumer confidence index for November dropped to 50.3, the lowest level since June 2022, down from 53.6 in October [1] - On the same day, over 1,000 flights were canceled and more than 4,400 flights were delayed in the U.S. due to the "shutdown" [2] - The U.S. Transportation Secretary warned that if the "shutdown" continues, the flight cancellation rate could reach 15% to 20% nationwide [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the U.S. economy is expected to grow close to 4% in the third quarter [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Director of the National Economic Council, Hassett, anticipates that the U.S. economy will grow close to 4% in the third quarter [1] Economic Growth - The projected economic growth rate of nearly 4% indicates a strong performance for the U.S. economy in the third quarter [1]