Group 1 - The GBP/USD exchange rate is currently trading around 1.3435, slightly above the low reached earlier in the week, with the market in a wait-and-see mode ahead of the upcoming US non-farm payroll report [1] - The performance of new job additions, unemployment rate, and wage growth in the non-farm payroll data will be crucial for assessing the tightness of the US labor market, directly impacting inflation expectations and the Federal Reserve's interest rate outlook [3] - If the non-farm data significantly exceeds expectations, it may strengthen market bets on the Fed extending its tightening cycle or raising terminal rates, providing short-term support for the dollar and increasing downward pressure on GBP/USD [3] Group 2 - Conversely, if the data is weak, it could trigger expectations of economic slowdown and policy shifts, limiting further dollar gains and potentially alleviating downward pressure on the pound [3] - The interest rate futures market has shown adjustments in rate hike expectations, indicating that investors are reassessing the magnitude and duration of the tightening path, which in turn constrains the dollar's unilateral momentum [3] - The recent statements from the Bank of England have downplayed the necessity for further aggressive rate hikes, suggesting that current rates may be close to "neutral," which neither stimulates nor suppresses the economy [3] Group 3 - The market will closely monitor UK inflation data, particularly in the services sector and wage growth, to validate the assessment of "rates nearing neutrality" [4] - If price pressures remain above expectations, the possibility of the central bank retaining further tightening could intermittently support the pound [4] - The balance between recession risks and persistent inflation in the UK economy will lead the Bank of England to maintain cautious policy communication, with any hints of "rates remaining high for an extended period" potentially stabilizing the pound in the short term [4]

这一判断的核心在于通胀走势。若通胀意外上行，美联储可能很快将被迫重启加息。但考虑到此类决策 伴随的政治压力，叠加特朗普总统即将提名新任美联储主席（理论上会更倾向于配合其降息诉求），除 非万不得已，美联储大概率不会扭转当前的鸽派立场。 纵观全局，黄金始终保持着一贯的看涨趋势，其间仅出现三次以看涨旗形形态进行的盘整。这种持续形 态常在长期上涨后显现：虽然过度的单边持仓可能引发剧烈回调，但当买家在回调中进场构筑更高的低 点，原有趋势便具备了延续的合理基础。这正是2024年最后两个月的情形，随后在2025年4月至8月重 现，并于2025年末持续突破行情。 摘要今日周一（12月29日）亚盘时段。国际黄金震荡走低，目前交投于4506.53美元/盎司附近，跌幅约 0.57%，但仍处于较高点，位于历史高点（4549.69美元/盎司）附近下方不远处。但2026年黄金走势仍 被市场普遍看好。 今日周一（12月29日）亚盘时段。国际黄金震荡走低，目前交投于4506.53美元/盎司附近，跌幅约 0.57%，但仍处于较高点，位于历史高点（4549.69美元/盎司）附近下方不远处。但2026年黄金走势仍 被市场普遍看好。 【要闻速递】 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses President Donald Trump's expectations for the next Federal Reserve Chairman to lower interest rates in a favorable economic environment, emphasizing that anyone who disagrees with him will not be appointed to the position [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Trends - Trump highlights a shift in market behavior where positive economic data leads to sell-offs due to inflation concerns, contrasting with the past when good news typically drove market gains [3]. - The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported a 4.3% annualized growth rate for real GDP in the third quarter, exceeding most economists' expectations [3]. Group 2: Market Performance - Despite Trump's claims, the S&P 500 index rose for the fourth consecutive trading day, approaching historical highs, indicating a disconnect between his narrative and market performance [3]. Group 3: Federal Reserve Leadership - Trump has narrowed down his list of candidates for the Federal Reserve Chairman to "three to four" individuals, with potential candidates including Kevin Hassett, Kevin Walsh, and Christopher Waller [4]. - Trump expressed confidence in the capabilities of each candidate, stating they are all good choices [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in the precious metals market, particularly focusing on the shifts in fund positions as reported by the CFTC, highlighting the recovery of net long positions in palladium and the significant rise in silver prices, while also addressing the implications of potential interest rate changes by the Federal Reserve [2][27]. Group 1: Fund Positions and Market Trends - As of December 9, 2023, funds have increased their net long positions in various metals, with palladium finally recovering to a net long position after 164 weeks of being net short [2][7]. - Silver prices have surged by 132% this year, while the gold-silver ratio has dropped from 90.84 to 64.6, indicating a strong demand for physical silver [2][27]. - The net long position in silver has only increased by 66% year-to-date, suggesting that the rise in price is primarily driven by physical demand rather than speculative trading [2][27]. Group 2: Price Comparisons and Historical Context - Platinum has also seen a significant increase of 120% this year, but its valuation relative to silver is at a historical low, with one ounce of platinum currently able to exchange for only 29 ounces of silver [2][27]. - The article notes that historically, one ounce of platinum could be exchanged for over 60 ounces of silver, indicating that platinum is currently undervalued compared to silver [2][27]. Group 3: Federal Reserve and Economic Implications - The market is beginning to speculate on the possibility of the Federal Reserve starting to raise interest rates in 2027, despite current low probabilities [2][27]. - The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring the Federal Reserve's actions, particularly regarding interest rate changes, as they could significantly impact the ongoing commodity bull market [2][27]. - The likelihood of a rate cut in March 2024 has increased to 47%, and the probability for April has risen to 64.6%, indicating a shift in market expectations [26][27].

12月16日，欧美股市多数下跌，美联储突然释放"鹰派"信号，此外，据报道，美国总统特朗普将于周三面试另一位美联储主席候选人—美联储理事克里斯 托弗·沃勒，今日早间（12月17日），黄金小幅低开后再度直线翻红。 美国三大股指涨跌不一，道指跌0.62%，标普500指数跌0.24%，纳指涨0.23%。 强生公司、联合健康集团跌超2%，领跌道指，特斯拉涨超3%，脸书涨逾1%。 中概股方面，纳斯达克中国金龙指数跌0.34%，个股方面，小马智行涨超7%，禾赛科技涨超3%，金山云涨超2%，满帮集团涨超1%，阿特斯太阳能涨超 1%。 消息面上，虽然美国劳工部16日公布的数据显示，今年11月美国失业率为2021年10月以来有记录的最高水平。但美联储官员突然释放"鹰派"信号。 美国亚特兰大联储行长博斯蒂克表示，美国劳动力市场正在降温，但他预计不会出现明显放缓。多年未能实现通胀目标可能"确实会损害"美联储的公信 力。 他认为，进一步降息将使货币政策接近或进入宽松区间，从而使通胀和通胀预期面临风险。 而关于美联储的人选，据报道，美国总统特朗普将于周三面试另一位美联储主席候选人—美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒。官员们称，相关流程进展迅速， ...

Core Viewpoint - UBS Asset Management's Kevin Zhao plans to capitalize on the significant rise in 10-year U.S. Treasury yields next year by selling, anticipating that a dovish Federal Reserve and President Trump's efforts to stimulate growth before the midterm elections will reignite inflation [1] Group 1: Economic Outlook - The market may begin to price in the risk of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike by the end of next year, which could diminish the attractiveness of long-term U.S. Treasuries [1] - Economic growth is expected to accelerate, putting pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise rates by 2027, especially if the new Fed Chair continues to push for rate cuts despite strengthening growth signals [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The interest rate spread between long-term and short-term Treasuries is projected to widen to its widest level since 2021 [1]

瑞银资产管理的Kevin Zhao计划利用明年10年期美国国债大幅上涨的机会卖出，并认为鸽派美联储以及 美国总统特朗普在中期选举前刺激增长的努力将重新激化通胀。在瑞银资产管理担任主动管理型主权、 固定收益和外汇基金负责人的Zhao表示，市场可能会在明年年底前开始计入一次美联储加息的风险， 从而削弱较长期美债的吸引力，并推动其相对于短债之间的利差扩大至2021年以来的最宽水平。 ...

2025年的中国经济像辆奇怪的车，两条赛道上跑着完全不同的速度。 出口这边呼呼往前冲，1-10月同比增长5%，跟去年6%基本持平，前三季度净出口对GDP的贡献更是冲 到了29%。 另一边消费和房地产却慢悠悠，社会消费品零售增速3%，房地产投资还在负增长。 这种"外快内慢"的双速模式，今年已经是第五年了。 出口逆势增长的秘密，区域掉头与产品升级 今年出口能稳住5%的增速，很多人年初都没想到。 毕竟去年基数就不低，今年全球经济也没多景气。 记得2023年新能源汽车出口量全球占比就破了60%，今年更是成了出口增长的主力，街上跑的"中国 造"电动车，在欧洲超市停车场里都快跟本土品牌平分秋色了。 但企业们早就学会了"东边不亮西边亮"。 对美国出口掉了760亿美元，可对东盟一下子补回来680亿。 这种区域掉头的操作，一半是转口贸易的功劳，另一半是企业把生产线往东南亚挪了挪，组装完再卖出 去，关税成本降了不少。 全球制造业也算给了点面子，今年全球制造业PMI均值50.3，比去年高了0.2个点，刚好踩在荣枯线上。 发达国家那边宽松政策还在延续，老百姓手里有钱，对咱们的高端制造品需求挺旺。 最明显的是汽车和集成电路，这两样今年 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes lead to an appreciation of the US dollar due to increased capital inflow, enhanced currency confidence, interest rate differentials, and demand for safe-haven assets [1][5]. Group 1: Capital Inflow - The Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes raise US interest rates, attracting global investors seeking higher returns, which increases demand for the dollar and leads to its appreciation [3]. Group 2: Currency Confidence - Interest rate hikes reflect the Federal Reserve's optimistic outlook on the economy and concerns about inflation, enhancing market confidence in the dollar's value [4]. Group 3: Interest Rate Differentials - Higher US interest rates compared to other countries create a wider interest rate differential, prompting investors to shift funds to the US for better yields, further increasing demand for the dollar [5]. Group 4: Risk Hedging - Interest rate hikes may induce volatility and uncertainty in global financial markets, leading investors to seek safe-haven assets like the dollar, which supports its appreciation [5].

Interesting. Kevin Hanks live at the CBOE for our pre-built playbook is with us. Of course, we're waiting on the PCE at 10 a.m. Let's uh first just start big picture. How you feeling this Friday morning.>> Good morning, Nicole. Yeah, we seem to be cruising into the end of the week with big events on the horizon. The Fed meeting that will be obviously the announcement.Do they cut. Will it be will there be dissents. Then Jerome Pal's press conference.Then we get the uh summary of economic pro projections that ...