每经AI快讯，财政部：1—7月，全国一般公共预算收入135839亿元，同比增长0.1%。其中，全国税收 收入110933亿元，同比下降0.3%；非税收入24906亿元，同比增长2%。分中央和地方看，中央一般公共 预算收入58538亿元，同比下降2%；地方一般公共预算本级收入77301亿元，同比增长1.8%。 ...

主要支出中，养老金支出占11亿欧元，同比增长8.4%；社会保障支出13亿欧元增长2.7%；投资支出6.12 亿欧元增长1.1%，涉及军队现代化与交通基础设施。补贴支出为3.32亿欧元，同比减少8400万欧元，反 映出对能源和洪灾援助的逐步退坡。 斯通社8月8日卢布尔雅那消息，斯洛文尼亚国家财政今年前七个月的支出较去年同期增长7.4%，达91 亿欧元，占全年预算的53.1%；同期收入为82亿欧元，同比增长2.9%，占全年预算的53.6%。财政赤字 为9.12亿欧元，比去年增加3.99亿欧元。财政部表示增长仍在预期以内。 在收入方面，税收是主要来源，总额达72亿欧元，同比增长4.3%。其中增值税为32亿欧元，所得税为 12亿欧元，企业所得税收入则同比减少14%，为10亿欧元。消费税收入略降至9.29亿欧元，主要因烟酒 税减少。整体来看，财政运行仍属可控，但企业税收下降趋势值得警惕。 ...

财政部近日发布的数据显示，今年前4个月，全国一般公共预算收入80616亿元，同比下降0.4%， 降幅较一季度收窄0.7个百分点；全国一般公共预算支出93581亿元，同比增长4.6%，完成预算的 31.5%，支出进度为2020年以来同期最快。 1至4月，全国非税收入15060亿元，同比增长7.7%，主要是多渠道盘活资产等带动。4月份，非税 收入增速进一步降至1.7%。对此，温彬表示，今年以来，非税收入增速持续放缓，主要是随着化债资 金落实到位，地方政府财政状况有所好转，对资产盘活的依赖度下降。 国盛证券首席经济学家熊园表示，4月份，一般财政收入增速进一步抬升，税收收入增速由负转 正，四大税种中个税收入改善是主要支撑，其余税种走弱，可能与入库节奏有关。另外，国有资产盘活 较难持续，非税收入增速为去年3月份以来最低水平。 具体到4月份，一般公共预算收入同比增长1.9%，增速较上月加快1.6个百分点。其中，税收收入增 速加快4.1个百分点至1.9%，非税收入增速放缓4.3个百分点至1.7%；一般公共预算支出同比增长5.8%， 增速较上月加快0.1百分点。 中央财经大学教授温来成在接受《金融时报》记者采访时表示，今年前 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent announcement by the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration indicates that from August 8, new government bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds will be subject to value-added tax on interest income, marking a significant policy shift in the bond market [1][2]. Background and Reasons - The restoration of value-added tax on new government bonds is a result of multiple factors, including the historical context of tax exemptions aimed at attracting investors to the bond market during its early development [2][3]. - Prior to the comprehensive implementation of the "business tax to value-added tax" reform in 2016, interest income from government bonds was exempt from business tax, and this exemption was extended to local and financial bonds [2]. - As of June 2025, the total bond stock in China is projected to reach 188.11 trillion yuan, reflecting a 14.95% increase from the end of 2024, indicating the growing recognition of bond investment value [2]. Fiscal Impact - The new tax policy is expected to increase fiscal revenue and alleviate financial pressure, particularly for social security expenditures such as childcare subsidies. The Ministry of Finance reported a 1.2% year-on-year decline in national tax revenue for the first half of the year, amounting to 9.29 trillion yuan [3]. Differentiated Impact on Bond Market - The new tax policy will have varying impacts on different types of bonds and investors, categorized into three key areas: 1. **New vs. Old Bonds**: The policy distinguishes between new and existing bonds, maintaining tax exemptions for bonds issued before August 8, which may lead to increased demand and lower yields for older bonds [4]. 2. **Investor Types**: Different investors will face varying tax burdens; public funds and asset management products will benefit from a reduced tax rate of 3%, compared to 6% for banks and insurance companies [5]. 3. **Protection for Ordinary Investors**: The policy includes provisions for ordinary investors, allowing tax exemptions on interest income up to 100,000 yuan per month until December 31, 2027, reflecting a consideration for retail investor needs [6]. Investment Opportunities - To mitigate the impact of the new tax policy, investors are encouraged to focus on products like government bond ETFs, particularly those with a high proportion of older bonds, which will continue to enjoy tax exemptions [7]. - The Ten-Year Government Bond ETF and the Five-Year Government Bond ETF are highlighted as unique offerings in their respective categories, with over 80% of their holdings being older bonds exempt from the new tax [7][8]. - These ETFs also provide advantages such as T+0 trading, pledging, and futures arbitrage, making them attractive to both individual and institutional investors [8].

Revenue and Fiscal Performance - In June, general public budget revenue was 1.89 trillion, with a year-on-year growth rate of -0.3%, marking a decline of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month[3] - Non-tax revenue in June fell by 3.7% year-on-year, with the decline widening by 1.5 percentage points compared to May, primarily due to a high base from the previous year[3] - Tax revenue in June showed a slight year-on-year increase of 1.0%, recovering by 0.4 percentage points from May but still below April levels[3] Expenditure and Budget Deficit - June fiscal expenditure grew by only 0.4% year-on-year, a significant drop of 2.2 percentage points from May, continuing a downward trend for the second consecutive month[4] - Cumulative fiscal expenditure for the first half of the year increased by 3.4% year-on-year, significantly outpacing revenue growth by 3.7 percentage points, indicating stable support for total consumption and investment demand[4] - The budget deficit for the first half of the year reached 2.57 trillion, an increase of 0.5 trillion year-on-year, raising the need for government bond financing[4] Government Fund and Debt Issuance - Government fund budget revenue in June rebounded sharply by 28.9% year-on-year, with land transfer fees contributing significantly to this increase, rising by 36.5 percentage points from May[5] - Government fund expenditure surged by 79.2% year-on-year in June, driven by accelerated issuance of special government bonds, with total expenditure growth for the first half of the year reaching 30%[5] - The overall budget deficit for government funds in the first half of the year reached 2.68 trillion, a substantial increase of 1.1 trillion year-on-year[5] Future Outlook and Risks - The fiscal revenue shortfall is expected to widen further, potentially triggering the issuance of special government bonds if three conditions are met, including low inflation and continued pressure on tax revenue[6] - The financing progress for government bonds has already reached 55.2% of the annual plan, significantly higher than the same period in 2024 and 2023[6] - Risks include the possibility of fiscal expansion being lower than expected, which could impact the effectiveness of consumption and investment stimulus measures[6]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The overall fiscal performance in China for the first half of the year shows a slight decline in general public budget revenue, but with signs of recovery in tax revenue and continued growth in non-tax revenue, indicating a stable fiscal environment despite challenges [1][2]. Revenue and Expenditure - National general public budget revenue reached 115,566 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3% [1]. - Tax revenue amounted to 92,915 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 1.2%, while non-tax revenue increased to 22,651 billion RMB, showing a growth of 3.7% [1]. - General public budget expenditure was 141,271 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.4% [1]. Tax Revenue Trends - Monthly tax revenue has shown growth for three consecutive months starting from April, with increases of 1.9% in April, 0.6% in May, and 1% in June [2]. - Key tax categories such as domestic value-added tax, domestic consumption tax, and personal income tax grew by 2.8%, 1.7%, and 8% respectively [2]. - Export tax rebates totaled 12,700 billion RMB, an increase of 1,322 billion RMB compared to the same period last year, supporting foreign trade exports [2]. Sector Performance - The equipment manufacturing and modern service industries exhibited strong tax revenue performance, with specific sectors like railway, shipping, aerospace equipment, and computer communication equipment seeing tax revenue growth of 32.2%, 9.2%, and 6.3% respectively [2]. - The scientific research and technical service industry experienced a tax revenue increase of 13.8%, while the cultural, sports, and entertainment sectors saw an 8.6% rise [2]. Non-Tax Revenue Insights - Non-tax revenue growth slowed down, with a decrease of 5.1 percentage points compared to the first quarter [2]. - Revenue from the paid use of state-owned resources increased by 4.8%, driven by local governments optimizing asset utilization [2]. - Administrative and institutional fee income grew by 1%, but the growth rate fell by 4.5 percentage points compared to the first quarter, while confiscated income declined by 4.3% [2]. Local Budget Performance - Local general public budget revenue increased by 1.6%, with 27 out of 31 provinces reporting growth [2]. - Fiscal departments at all levels are focusing on optimizing expenditure structures and ensuring funding for key areas [2].

Core Insights - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) reports that Sri Lanka's economic growth is performing better than expected [1] - Inflation is progressing towards the target [1] - Foreign exchange reserves are accumulating [1] - Fiscal revenue is improving [1]

Revenue Performance - In May 2025, the national general public budget revenue grew by only 0.1% year-on-year, a decrease of 1.8 percentage points from April's 1.9%[1] - The broad fiscal revenue in May saw a year-on-year decline of 1.2%, slowing down by 3.9 percentage points compared to the previous month[2] - Tax revenue increased by 0.6% year-on-year in May, down from 1.9% in April, while non-tax revenue fell by 2.2% compared to a growth of 1.7% in April[3] Expenditure Trends - In May, the national general public budget expenditure grew by 2.6% year-on-year, a slowdown of 3.2 percentage points from April's 5.8%[4] - Cumulative general public budget expenditure from January to May reached 38.0% of the annual budget, exceeding the average of 37.4% over the past five years[5] - Infrastructure-related expenditures in May decreased by 7.7% year-on-year, a decline of 9.9 percentage points from the previous month[6] Government Fund Insights - Government fund revenue in May fell by 8.1% year-on-year, a significant drop of 16.2 percentage points from the previous month, primarily due to a decline in land transfer income[7] - The land transfer income in May decreased by 14.6% year-on-year, a sharp decline from April's growth of 4.3%[8] - Government fund expenditure in May grew by 8.8% year-on-year, but this was a significant decrease from April's 44.7% growth rate[9]

Economic Overview - The economic performance of Jiangmen City from January to May 2025 is characterized as "generally stable," despite a continuous decline in fixed asset investment [2] - Key economic indicators such as industrial added value and retail sales continue to show positive growth [2] Industrial Performance - The industrial added value of Jiangmen's scale above designated size increased by 2.6% year-on-year, with a slight deceleration of 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month [3] - The manufacturing sector saw a growth of 3.6%, while the electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply sector declined by 3.4%, and the mining sector experienced a significant drop of 36.9% [3] - Among 21 major industrial products, 16 categories maintained positive growth, with notable increases in stainless steel daily products (62,400 tons), furniture (3.8795 million pieces), and motorcycles (2.0451 million units), all exceeding 20% growth [3] Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment in Jiangmen decreased by 26.5% year-on-year, with the decline rate widening by 1.9 percentage points compared to the previous month [4] - State-owned investment fell by 26.9%, while private investment decreased by 23.0% [4] - Investment in the real estate sector also saw a decline of 26.1%, with a 14.9% drop in sales area and a 10.2% decrease in sales revenue [4] Foreign Trade - Jiangmen's foreign trade value increased by 6.7% year-on-year, reaching 80.08 billion yuan, which is higher than the national and provincial average growth rates [5] - Exports amounted to 68.65 billion yuan, growing by 9.9%, ranking fourth in the province, while imports fell by 9.3% to 11.43 billion yuan [6] - Private enterprises showed a rapid growth in imports and exports, totaling 46.25 billion yuan, a 12.4% increase, accounting for 57.8% of the total [6] Export Performance - The top five export products included household appliances (9.92 billion yuan, 6.3% growth), motorcycles (7.15 billion yuan, 55.9% growth), and general machinery (4.59 billion yuan, 19% growth), collectively representing 42.1% of total exports [7] - Exports of ships and paper products also saw significant growth, with increases of 32.3% and 19.9%, respectively [7] Retail and Fiscal Revenue - The total retail sales of social consumer goods reached 52.369 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.8%, accelerating by 0.4 percentage points compared to the previous month [8] - Local general public budget revenue increased by 2.6% year-on-year, although the growth rate slowed by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In May, the year-on-year growth rate of broad fiscal revenue turned negative again, and the intensity of fiscal expenditure dropped significantly. The sustainability of fiscal stimulus after June needs to be observed, and it may be necessary to increase the budget to expand the deficit [1][4]. Summary by Catalog Fiscal Revenue - **General Fiscal Revenue**: In May, the year-on-year growth rate of broad fiscal revenue was -1.2%, turning negative again (April: 2.7%). From January to May, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of broad fiscal revenue was -1.3% [1][8]. - **General Public Budget Revenue**: In May 2025, the year-on-year growth rate of general public budget revenue was 0.1% (April: 1.9%), tax revenue was 0.6% (April: 1.9%), and non-tax revenue was -2.2% (April: 1.7%). Central revenue grew by 0.4% year-on-year, while local revenue decreased by 0.1% [1][10]. - **Tax Revenue Structure**: In May, tax revenue increased by 0.56% year-on-year. Among the four major taxes, domestic VAT increased by 6.1% (April: 0.9%), and personal income tax increased by 12.3% (April: 9.0%). Corporate income tax increased by only 0.02% (April: 3.97%), indicating pressure on corporate profit growth. Real estate-related taxes decreased by 8.6% year-on-year, with the decline widening [2][12]. - **Government Fund Revenue**: In May, the year-on-year growth rate of government fund revenue was -8.1% (April: 8.1%), turning negative again. Without incremental policies, it is difficult to significantly improve government fund budget revenue in the short term [2][14]. Fiscal Expenditure - **General Public Budget Expenditure**: In May, the year-on-year growth rate of general public budget expenditure was 2.6% (April: 5.8%), with the growth rate declining [3][16]. - **Government Fund Expenditure**: In May, the year-on-year growth rate of government fund expenditure was 8.8% (April: 44.7%), showing a significant decline [3][16]. - **Expenditure Structure**: In May, infrastructure-related fiscal expenditures contracted overall, with a year-on-year growth rate of -7.69% (April: 2.15%). Expenditures on social security, science and technology, and culture and tourism had relatively high growth rates [3][16]. Fiscal Deficit - As of May, the cumulative broad fiscal deficit was 3.30 trillion yuan. Assuming a nominal GDP growth rate of 4% this year, the current cumulative broad deficit ratio is 2.4%, higher than most of the same periods in the past five years and close to 2022. It is necessary to observe whether fiscal expenditure in June can maintain a high intensity [4][21]. Policy Outlook - To maintain the pace of fiscal stimulus, it may be necessary to increase the budget to expand the deficit. After the Politburo meeting on April 25, monetary policy was implemented first, but incremental fiscal policies have not been introduced. Incremental fiscal policies are expected in the second half of the year, and attention should be paid to the Politburo meeting at the end of July and policy implementation in August and September [4][22].