1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold is expected to trade in a high - level range. The long - term bullish logic remains unchanged due to the reshaping of the global order and the trend of fiscal and monetary easing, despite short - term price fluctuations caused by tariff negotiations and inflation changes [1][3]. - Silver will experience range - bound trading, lacking new driving forces [1][4]. - For copper, it is recommended to hold some long positions and take partial profits at high prices. In the long run, copper is expected to rise due to the tight global copper mine supply [1][6]. - Zinc is under pressure to rebound. In the long term, with increasing supply and weakening demand, short - selling opportunities on rallies should be seized [1][8]. - Aluminum may face pressure as the off - season approaches, and short - selling opportunities on rallies are suggested [1][11]. - Nickel is likely to rebound and then decline. Short - selling on rebounds is recommended, considering the inventory pressure in the downstream [1][13]. - Industrial silicon is under pressure to rebound. Short - selling opportunities on rallies should be watched [1]. - Carbonate lithium is under pressure to rebound. Short - selling at high prices is advised as the fundamental situation remains one of oversupply [1][15]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Market Review**: Gold prices fluctuated due to Canada's compromise in tariff negotiations and Trump's criticism of the Fed [2]. - **Basic Logic**: German inflation decreased, and there were compromises in trade negotiations among countries. However, future variables are still large. The long - term bullish logic of gold remains intact [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the support around 760. Consider long - term investment opportunities [4]. Silver - **Market Review**: Lacks new driving forces, showing range - bound trading. - **Basic Logic**: The logic has not changed significantly, and the ratio of gold to silver has returned to the normal range [1]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on the support at 8550 [4]. Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper oscillated around the 80,000 - yuan mark [5]. - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas copper mine supply is tight, and during the consumption off - season, the strong demand from the power and new - energy vehicle sectors offsets the weakness in traditional demand [5]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold some long positions and take partial profits at high prices. Be cautious of the risk of price drops at high levels. In the long term, copper is expected to rise. The short - term focus range for Shanghai copper is [78,500, 81,000] yuan/ton, and for LME copper is [9,700, 9,900] dollars/ton [1][6]. Zinc - **Market Review**: Zinc rebounded under pressure and oscillated [7]. - **Industrial Logic**: In 2025, the zinc ore supply is expected to be looser. Domestic inventories have slightly increased, and downstream demand is weak [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Zinc is under pressure to rebound and will trade in a narrow range. In the long term, short - selling opportunities on rallies should be grasped. The focus range for Shanghai zinc is [22,200, 22,800] yuan/ton, and for LME zinc is [2,700, 2,850] dollars/ton [8][9]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices rebounded under pressure, and alumina stabilized at a low level [10]. - **Industrial Logic**: The off - season in the terminal field is deepening, and inventories of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods are showing signs of accumulation. The supply of alumina is relatively loose [11]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider short - selling opportunities on rallies for aluminum, paying attention to inventory changes. The main operating range is [20,000 - 20,800] yuan/ton. Alumina is expected to trade in a low - level range [11]. Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices rebounded weakly, and stainless steel prices rebounded and then declined [12]. - **Industrial Logic**: The supply pressure of nickel is obvious, and the stainless steel industry is facing over - supply due to the off - season and high inventory [13]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - sell on rebounds for nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to inventory changes. The main operating range for nickel is [118,000 - 122,000] yuan/ton [13]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2509 reduced positions by over 10,000 lots and opened high and closed low [14]. - **Industrial Logic**: The market fundamentals remain in a state of oversupply, and the inventory is expected to continue to increase. Although the number of warehouse receipts has decreased recently, the total inventory has reached a new high [15]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - sell at high prices in the range of [61,700 - 63,600] yuan/ton [15].

中辉有色观点 【基本逻辑】：①鲍威尔重申不急于降息。美联储主席鲍威尔向国会提交半年度货 币政策报告证词。鲍威尔表示，政策调整对经济的影响仍存在不确定性，但目前处于有 利位置，可以等待再考虑利率调整。他指出，最终的关税水平将决定其影响，关税可能 推高物价并对经济产生压力，对通胀的影响可能是短暂的，也可能会持续更长时间。② 关税谈判不顺利。面对 7 月 9 日美国对欧盟出口商品征收 50%关税的威胁，美国要求欧 盟做出被视为"不平衡、单方面"的让步，欧盟正考虑是否启动反制措施。③市场预期 中东局势可控。特朗普致电以色列总理内塔尼亚胡，要求其完全避免对伊朗采取任何攻 击行动。内塔尼亚胡告诉特朗普，他无法取消这次袭击，最终，（以色列）决定大幅缩 减攻击规模并取消对大量目标的攻击。伊朗总统表示，如果以色列不违反停火协议，伊 朗就不会违反。伊方已准备在谈判桌上进行对话。④逻辑主线。关税地缘变数较大，长 期全球降低美元依赖及财政货币双宽松趋势不变，黄金长牛逻辑不变。 资料来源：Wind，中辉期货 【行情回顾】：鲍威尔拒绝降息、特朗普熄火中东，黄金有下挫。 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | ...

中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 美欧关税豁免延期，黄金调整，但是关税问题远没有解决，俄乌战火激烈，中 | | 黄金 | 震荡冲高 | 东仍然复杂。央行或继续购金。本轮大牛的主要驱动是国际秩序改变，长期看 黄金是未来秩序筹码，尚在秩序重塑途中，战略配置价值高。【760-787】 | | | | 逻辑不变，全球经济需求较 2024 年或有下降，尽管各国财政关税对冲关税带来 | | 白银 | 区间震荡 | 的负面影响，但是受黄金和基本金属影响较大，黄金波动刺激跟随，价格没有 | | | | 摆脱此前区间，操作上仍延续此前的区间思路对待。【8200-8390】 | | 铜 | 反弹 | 短期铜关注上方 7 万 9 关口压力位，多单谨慎持有。随着端午三天假期临近，市场 避险情绪回升，警惕铜再次高位回落，中长期依旧看好铜。沪铜关注区间【78000， | | | | 79500】 | | 锌 | 承压 | 短期供应扰动冲击影响消退，随着端午长假临近，市场避险情绪回升，建议暂 时观望，长期看，锌供增需弱，把握逢高空机会。沪锌关注区间【222 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold is expected to oscillate and rise. The main drivers for the long - term bull market are the change in international order and the strategic allocation value is high. The price range is [766 - 787] [1]. - Silver is likely to have range - bound oscillations. The global economic demand may decline in 2025, and it is greatly affected by gold and base metals. The price range is [8200 - 8390] [1]. - Copper is predicted to rebound. In the short - term, it should pay attention to the pressure level at 79,000. In the long - term, it remains optimistic about copper. The short - term price range for SHFE copper is [78000, 79500] [1]. - Zinc is expected to rebound. In the short - term, the rebound space may be limited, and it is recommended to wait and see. In the long - term, it has an oversupply situation. The price range for SHFE zinc is [22400, 23000] [1]. - Lead is under pressure. The supply is expected to tighten slightly, but the downstream procurement is cautious, so the price rebound is under pressure. The price range is [16300 - 17000] [1]. - Tin is predicted to rebound. Overseas tin ore supply is gradually recovering, and the domestic inventory is accumulating. The price range is [263000 - 269000] [1]. - Aluminum is facing pressure in its rebound. The alumina price is falling, and the downstream demand is differentiating. The price range is [19800 - 20300] [1]. - Nickel is under pressure. The cost support is weakening, and the terminal demand is weakening. The price range is [120000 - 125000] [1]. - Industrial silicon has a bearish outlook. The supply and demand surplus concern remains. The price range is [7500 - 7780] [1]. - Lithium carbonate is bearish. The supply surplus situation has not been reversed. The price range is [59000 - 61000] [1]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Gold and Silver Market Review - The progress of the US - EU negotiation is repeated, and geopolitical issues in the Middle East and between Russia and Ukraine continue, providing support for gold [2]. Basic Logic - The US extended the deadline for imposing a 50% tariff on EU goods to July 9, boosting market confidence. Japan's inflation has rebounded, and the UK's retail sales have increased significantly. The cease - fire in the Middle East is uncertain. The long - term trend of reducing dependence on the US dollar and the dual - loose fiscal and monetary policies will support gold [3]. Strategy Recommendation - Short - term long positions can be arranged in the gold market, and control the position for long - term investment. Silver may continue to have range - bound oscillations in the short - term [8200, 8390] [4]. Copper Market Review - Overnight, copper opened lower and then rose, with an oscillatory recovery [6]. Industrial Logic - Overseas copper mine supply is tight, and the processing fee of copper concentrate is - 44.25 dollars/ton. The uncertainty of Trump's copper import tariff policy is reducing copper inventories outside the US. The demand for green copper in power, automotive, and home appliance sectors is strong, offsetting the weak demand in traditional sectors [6]. Strategy Recommendation - In the short - term, copper is oscillating strongly. Pay attention to the pressure level at 79,000. Long positions should be held cautiously. In the long - term, it is optimistic about copper. The short - term price range for SHFE copper is [78000, 79500], and for LME copper is [9400, 9800] dollars/ton [7]. Zinc Market Review - Zinc rose by more than 2% overnight [8]. Industrial Logic - In 2025, the zinc ore supply is expected to be loose. Recently, the unexpected extended maintenance of a smelter in South China and the maintenance of a mine in the Southwest have worried the market about supply disruptions. The downstream demand is weakening [8]. Strategy Recommendation - In the short - term, zinc rebounds due to mine and smelter maintenance, but the rebound space may be limited. It is recommended to wait and see. In the long - term, short positions can be taken on rebounds. The price range for SHFE zinc is [22400, 23000], and for LME zinc is [2680, 2780] dollars/ton [9]. Aluminum Market Review - The aluminum price rebounds under pressure, and the alumina price is falling [10]. Industrial Logic - The overseas macro - trade environment has eased. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum has increased slightly, and the demand is differentiating. The supply of bauxite is high, and the alumina supply surplus situation continues [11]. Strategy Recommendation - It is recommended to wait and see for SHFE aluminum, focusing on inventory changes. The price range for the main contract is [19800 - 20500]. Alumina is operating in a low - level range [11]. Nickel Market Review - The nickel price is under pressure, and stainless steel rebounds and then falls [12]. Industrial Logic - The overseas macro - environment has eased. The increase in nickel ore shipments from the Philippines and the price cut in Indonesia have weakened the cost support. The domestic refined nickel production is increasing, and the inventory is at a relatively high level. The stainless steel inventory has decreased, but the overall supply - demand surplus pressure still exists [13]. Strategy Recommendation - It is recommended to short on rebounds for nickel and stainless steel, focusing on downstream consumption. The price range for the main nickel contract is [120000 - 129000] [13]. Lithium Carbonate Market Review - The main contract LC2507 opened lower and fell, breaking through the 60,000 mark [14]. Industrial Logic - The supply surplus situation continues. The upstream smelter has high inventory pressure, and the demand is weak. The cost of lithium ore is still falling, and the negative feedback cycle continues [15]. Strategy Recommendation - Hold short positions. The price range is [59000 - 61000] [15].

中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | | 俄乌谈判再次失败，国内央行大举进口黄金，黄金价格短期快速走高。本轮大 | | | 震荡冲高 | 牛的主要驱动是国际秩序改变，长期看，黄金是未来秩序筹码，尚在秩序重塑 | | | | 途中，战略配置价值高。【755-780】 | | 白银 | 区间调整 | 逻辑不变，国内弱现实，各国财政关税对冲关税带来的负面影响，品种特性上， 白银金融属性和商品属性比较敏感，受黄金和基本金属影响较大，黄金大涨刺 | | | | 激白银重心上移，不过操作上仍延续此前的区间思路对待。【8130-8350】 | | 铜 | 反弹 | 海外地缘风险激增，美元指数回落，COMEX 铜持续抽干全球铜库存，短期铜震荡 回升，警惕高铜价对需求抑制作用逐渐显现，建议多单逐渐高位止盈，中长期依旧 | | | | 看好铜。沪铜关注区间【78000，79000】 | | | | 宏观和板块积极带动锌止跌反弹，但消费淡季开启，锌上方空间有限，建议前 | | 锌 | 反弹 | 期空单继续持有，长期看，锌供增需弱，把握逢高空机会。沪锌 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold is in a high - level adjustment. Short - term price may fluctuate, but long - term strategic allocation value is high [1]. - Silver is in a wide - range adjustment, and the previous interval trading idea can be continued [1]. - For copper, it is recommended to take profit on long positions gradually, but long - term outlook remains positive [1]. - Hold short positions for zinc as supply increases and demand is weak in the long - run [1]. - Lead and tin prices are expected to rebound and then fall [1]. - Aluminum price rebounds and then falls [1]. - Nickel price rebounds under pressure [1]. - Industrial silicon has a bearish outlook due to supply - demand imbalance [1]. - For lithium carbonate, hold short positions as the fundamental outlook is bearish [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Performance**: Gold price fell more than 2% during Russia - Ukraine negotiations, then the decline narrowed. Silver also showed price fluctuations. For example, SHFE gold rose 1.62% from the previous value, and SHFE silver rose 1.16% [2]. - **Basic Logic**: U.S. consumer confidence dropped sharply, credit rating was downgraded, and Russia - Ukraine negotiations made no progress. Short - term upward momentum is weakened, but long - term factors support gold [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term, gold may fluctuate after adjustment, focus on the performance around 740 - 750. Long - term investors should wait for stabilization. Silver may continue to trade in the range of [8000, 8200] [3]. Copper - **Market Performance**: Shanghai copper oscillated and declined, testing the lower support level. For example, the price of SHFE copper main contract decreased by 0.82% [4]. - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas copper mine supply is tight. Trump's copper import tariff policy is drying up non - U.S. copper inventories, but there is a risk of price decline in mid - to - late May [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Partially take profit on long positions at high levels. Be cautious of high - level decline risks. Short - term, focus on the range of [77000, 78000] for SHFE copper and [9200, 9600] for LME copper [6]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: Zinc price oscillated and declined, retesting the bottom. For example, the price of SHFE zinc main contract decreased by 0.49% [8]. - **Industrial Logic**: In 2025, zinc ore supply is expected to be looser. Downstream demand is entering the off - season, and the overall performance is lower than previous years [8]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold previous short positions. In the long - run, look for opportunities to short at high levels. Focus on the range of [22000, 22600] for SHFE zinc and [2600, 2700] for LME zinc [9]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: Aluminum price rebounded and then fell, while alumina rebounded significantly. For example, the price of SHFE aluminum main contract decreased by 0.27% [10]. - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas trade environment eases. Aluminum inventory decreases, but demand is further differentiated. Alumina supply is in excess, and attention should be paid to ore - end disturbances [11]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Temporarily wait and see for SHFE aluminum, focus on inventory changes. The main operating range is [19900 - 20600]. Alumina is expected to stabilize [11]. Nickel - **Market Performance**: Nickel price rebounded and then fell, and stainless steel was under pressure. For example, the price of LME nickel decreased by 1.27% [12]. - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas environment eases. Mine - end policies in the Philippines and Indonesia support nickel price, but domestic inventory is still high. Stainless steel inventory pressure is slightly reduced [13]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rebounds for nickel and stainless steel, focus on downstream consumption. The main operating range for nickel is [120000 - 129000] [13]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The main contract LC2507 opened low and went lower, hitting a new low with significant increase in positions [14]. - **Industrial Logic**: The fundamental outlook is bearish. Raw material prices continue to fall, supply is sufficient, demand is entering the off - season, and inventory is increasing [15]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions in the range of [61000 - 62300] [15].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - Gold is in a high - level adjustment. Short - term price may fluctuate, but long - term strategic allocation value is high [1]. - Silver is in a wide - range adjustment, and it is recommended to continue the previous interval trading idea [1]. - For copper, it is suggested to take profit on long positions at high levels in the short term, and there is still optimism in the medium - and long - term [1][6]. - Zinc's rebound is under pressure. It is recommended to try short positions lightly in the short term and look for short - selling opportunities in the long term [1][8]. - Lead's price rebound is under pressure in the short term due to supply and demand factors [1]. - Tin's price rebound is under pressure as supply and demand situation is not favorable [1]. - Aluminum's price rebound is under pressure. Short - term long positions at low prices can be considered for Shanghai Aluminum [1][10]. - Nickel's price rebounds and then falls. It is recommended to sell on rebounds for nickel and stainless steel [1][12]. - Industrial silicon is in a low - level oscillation [1]. - Lithium carbonate is in a low - level oscillation and is in the bottom - building stage in the medium - and long - term [1][14]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: US data is mixed, and the prospect of Russia - Ukraine negotiations is unclear. Gold prices are in adjustment [2]. - **Basic Logic**: US retail growth slows down, PPI drops significantly, and geopolitical issues persist. Short - term upward momentum is weakened, but long - term bull market remains [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Gold may fluctuate after adjustment in the short term, and long - term investors should wait for stability. Silver may continue to oscillate in the range of [8000, 8250] [4]. Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai Copper rebounds after being under pressure [5]. - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas copper mine supply is unstable, and inventory situation is complex. There is a risk of price decline in mid - to late May [5]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Partially take profit on long positions at high levels in the short term. Be cautious about high - level decline risk. Long - term outlook is positive. Shanghai Copper focuses on the range of [77500, 79500], and London Copper focuses on [9400, 9800] USD/ton [6]. Zinc - **Market Review**: Zinc is in a volatile adjustment under upper pressure [7]. - **Industrial Logic**: Zinc supply increases while demand weakens as the consumption off - season begins [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Try short positions lightly at high levels in the short term and look for short - selling opportunities in the long term. Shanghai Zinc focuses on [22300, 22900], and London Zinc focuses on [2680, 2780] USD/ton [8]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum's price rebound is under pressure, and alumina rebounds from a low level [9]. - **Industrial Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, inventory decreases, but demand is differentiated. For alumina, supply is in excess [10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider short - term long positions at low prices for Shanghai Aluminum and pay attention to inventory changes. Alumina is expected to be stable [10]. Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel's price rebounds and then falls, and stainless steel is under pressure [11]. - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas environment eases, but domestic nickel inventory is high, and stainless steel inventory removal pressure is large [12]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Sell on rebounds for nickel and stainless steel and pay attention to downstream consumption. Nickel's main contract operates in the range of [120000, 129000] [12]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2507 rises and then falls, testing the support of the 5 - day moving average [13]. - **Industrial Logic**: Demand is hard to exceed expectations, and lithium price is testing cost support. Supply has no significant reduction, and inventory pressure remains [14]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Lithium carbonate is in a low - level oscillation in the range of [63750, 65102] [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The gold price may experience short - term fluctuations and adjustments, but the space for significant further adjustment is limited in the long run, and it has high strategic allocation value [1]. - The silver price will likely have wide - range adjustments, and the trading should follow the previous range - bound approach [1]. - For copper, it is recommended to gradually take profit on long positions at high levels, and the long - term outlook remains positive [1]. - Zinc may rebound in the short term, but there are opportunities to go short in the long term due to increasing supply and weak demand [1]. - The lead price will have a short - term rebound [1]. - The tin price will face pressure during the rebound [1]. - The aluminum price will be relatively strong in the short term [1]. - The nickel price may rebound and then fall, and it is advisable to wait and see for now [1]. - The industrial silicon price will rebound from a low level, with little change in the fundamentals [1]. - The lithium carbonate price will rebound from a low level in the short term and is still in the bottom - building stage in the long term [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Gold - **Market Performance**: SHFE gold was at 761.72, down 0.78% from the previous level and 3.67% from last week; COMEX gold was at 3185, down 2.14% and 4.33% respectively. The spot prices also declined [2]. - **Core Logic**: With the upcoming Russia - Ukraine talks and reduced impact of tariff negotiations, the short - term upward momentum is weakened. In the long run, global asset allocation rebalancing and fiscal - monetary dual - easing trends will support gold [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The short - term gold market may continue to adjust, and long - term investors should wait for stabilization before entering. Pay attention to the performance around 740 [4]. Silver - **Market Performance**: SHFE silver was at 8195, down 0.61% from the previous level and 0.69% from last week; COMEX silver was at 32, down 2.07% and 0.61% respectively [2]. - **Core Logic**: The financial and commodity attributes of silver interact, and it is affected by gold and base metals [1]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It may continue to fluctuate within the range of [8020, 8250] in the short term [4]. Copper - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai copper main contract was 78650 yuan/ton, up 0.19% daily. The LME copper and COMEX copper prices had different changes, and the inventory also showed various trends [5]. - **Core Logic**: Overseas copper mine supply is troubled, and the copper concentrate processing fee has reached a new low. There are risks of a high - level decline in mid - to late May [5]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Gradually take profit on previous long positions at high levels, beware of high - level decline risks. In the long term, be confident in the upward trend. The short - term Shanghai copper range is [78000, 79500], and the LME copper range is [9400, 9800] dollars/ton [6]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: The Shanghai zinc main contract closed at 22800 yuan/ton, up 1.24% daily. The inventory decreased, and the spot price increased [8]. - **Core Logic**: In 2025, the zinc ore supply will be looser. The downstream demand peak season is ending, and the downstream enterprise's operating rate has declined [8]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Lightly short at high levels near the upper integer - level resistance in the short term. In the long term, take opportunities to go short when the price rises. The Shanghai zinc range is [22500, 23000], and the LME zinc range is [2750, 2800] dollars/ton [9]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The LME aluminum closed at 2522.5 dollars/ton, up 1.16%; the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 20240 yuan/ton, up 1.17%. The inventory decreased [10]. - **Core Logic**: The overseas trade environment has eased, and the domestic inventory has decreased. The demand of downstream processing enterprises has increased, but the terminal off - season is approaching [11]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for short - term long opportunities for Shanghai aluminum at low levels, and pay attention to inventory changes. The main operating range is [19900 - 20600]. The alumina price will stabilize at a low level [11]. Nickel - **Market Performance**: The LME nickel closed at 15800 dollars/ton, up 0.35%; the Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 125230 yuan/ton, up 1.11%. The stainless - steel price also increased [12]. - **Core Logic**: The overseas environment is favorable for downstream demand. The Philippine's potential mining ban and Indonesia's royalty increase support the nickel price. The domestic inventory is relatively high, and the stainless - steel inventory has increased [13]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Temporarily wait and see, and pay attention to downstream consumption. The nickel main contract operating range is [121000 - 129000] [13]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The main contract LC2507 was at 65,200 yuan/ton, up 3.13%. The trading volume decreased [14]. - **Core Logic**: With weak demand, lithium prices are testing cost support. Supply has not seen large - scale and continuous production cuts, and the second - quarter demand is average. Short - term rebound is due to improved market risk preference [15]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It will rebound from a low level, with a range of [64500 - 66700] [15].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Gold is expected to trade in a high - level range. Long - term strategic allocation value persists due to factors like potential de - dollarization and the loss of US dollar credit [1]. - Silver will experience wide - range adjustments. It is supported by potential stimulus policies but is highly elastic and affected by gold and base metals [1]. - Copper is recommended for buying on dips in the short - term, and the long - term outlook remains positive [1]. - Zinc is advised to be sold on rallies. In the long - run, supply is increasing while demand is weak [1]. - Lead and tin prices are likely to face pressure on rebounds [1]. - Aluminum is expected to stabilize, with short - term weakness due to inventory and consumption factors [1]. - Nickel prices will face pressure on rebounds, affected by cost and inventory factors [1]. - Industrial silicon is in a weak position in May, with supply adjustment limited and demand weak [1]. - Lithium carbonate is weak. After a decline in Chile's exports, short positions can be moderately closed, and the price has limited upward momentum [1]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **行情回顾**: Gold prices adjusted after the US - UK tariff agreement and potential progress in US - EU negotiations. Silver also showed price fluctuations [2]. - **基本逻辑**: The UK central bank cut interest rates, US employment data was stable, and inflation expectations changed. The long - term bullish logic for gold remains due to trade uncertainties and asset re - allocation [3]. - **策略推荐**: For gold, participate when sentiment stabilizes, and take a long - term long position starting at 780. For silver, adopt a range - trading strategy within [8100, 8380] [4]. Copper - **行情回顾**: Shanghai copper rebounded and regained the 78,000 - yuan mark [5]. - **产业逻辑**: Overseas copper mine supply was disrupted, processing fees hit new lows, and domestic production decreased slightly. US copper inventory increased, while domestic inventory continued to decline, with a risk of soft squeeze [5]. - **策略推荐**: Hold short - term long positions. In the long - term, be confident in the upward trend of copper. Short - term Shanghai copper should be monitored in the range [77500, 78800], and LME copper in the range [9200, 9600] dollars per ton [6]. Zinc - **行情回顾**: Zinc continued its weak trend, with a slight rebound [7]. - **产业逻辑**: Although the zinc ore supply is expected to be loose in 2025, recent disruptions occurred. Refined zinc production increased, but downstream demand entered the off - season [7]. - **策略推荐**: With improved market sentiment and increased overseas zinc concentrate interference, zinc rebounded, but the upside is limited. Sell on rallies and look for short - selling opportunities in the long - term. Shanghai zinc should be monitored in the range [22000, 22800], and LME zinc in the range [2580, 2650] dollars per ton [8]. Aluminum - **行情回顾**: Aluminum prices were under pressure, while alumina rebounded from a low level [9]. - **产业逻辑**: For electrolytic aluminum, inventory increased, and downstream demand weakened. For alumina, supply was in excess, and cost support decreased [10]. - **策略推荐**: Temporarily observe Shanghai aluminum, focusing on inventory changes. The main operating range is [19200 - 20000]. Alumina is expected to operate in a weak range [10]. Nickel - **行情回顾**: Nickel prices were under pressure, and stainless steel rebounded and then declined [11]. - **产业逻辑**: The increase in Indonesia's nickel ore royalty supported nickel prices, but domestic inventory was high. Stainless steel inventory removal faced difficulties, and the industry was in an oversupply state [12]. - **策略推荐**: Lightly short - sell nickel and stainless steel on rebounds, focusing on inventory changes. The main operating range for nickel is [120000 - 127000] [12]. Lithium Carbonate - **行情回顾**: The main contract LC2507 hit a new low and then rebounded with reduced losses [13]. - **产业逻辑**: Chile's lithium salt exports decreased in April. In May, supply was sufficient, demand did not increase seasonally, and costs decreased, causing the price to test the 60,000 - yuan mark [14]. - **策略推荐**: Close short positions and observe in the range [63800 - 65200] [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific overall industry investment rating is provided in the reports. However, specific investment suggestions are given for each metal variety, such as "high - level oscillation" for gold, "wide - range adjustment" for silver, "buy on dips" for copper, etc. [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The reports analyze multiple metals including gold, silver, copper, zinc, lead, tin, aluminum, nickel, industrial silicon, and lithium carbonate. The core views are based on factors like economic data, trade policies, supply - demand relationships, and inventory levels. For example, gold is supported by long - term de - dollarization and global asset re - allocation, while copper is affected by global supply shortages and trade policies. [1][2][4] 3. Summary by Metal Variety Gold - **Core View**: High - level oscillation. Long - term strategic allocation value persists due to international order disruption and de - dollarization. [1] - **Price Range**: [766 - 800] [1] - **Market Performance**: Last week, the outer - market gold declined continuously, but yesterday it basically recovered the previous losses. [2] - **Basic Logic**: US economic recession risk rises as the Q1 GDP contracted by 0.3% due to surging imports and weak consumption. However, strong non - farm payroll data reduced the expectation of interest rate cuts. The long - term bullish logic for gold remains unchanged as trade negotiations are still uncertain, and global asset re - allocation and fiscal - monetary easing will support gold. [2] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term sentiment is slack, but can participate after stabilization. Long - term logic remains intact. [3] Silver - **Core View**: Wide - range adjustment. It is affected by gold and base metals, and currently in a large oscillation range. [1] - **Price Range**: [8100 - 8380] [1] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Treat it with an oscillation mindset within the current range. [3] Copper - **Core View**: Buy on dips. The copper concentrate shortage persists, and domestic inventory is decreasing. Be vigilant against soft squeeze - out risks. [1] - **Price Range**: SHFE copper [77000, 78500]; LME copper [9000, 9500] dollars/ton [1][5] - **Market Performance**: During the May Day holiday, LME copper rebounded in a V - shape, with an overall increase of 0.3%. [4] - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas copper mine supply is disrupted, and processing fees are at new lows. Domestic electrolytic copper production is increasing year - on - year but decreasing month - on - month. Global copper inventory is flowing to the US, and domestic inventory is decreasing, with a risk of soft squeeze - out. [4] - **Strategy Recommendation**: With the easing of macro - sentiment, buy on dips near the 77,000 mark. Long - term optimism remains due to the global copper shortage. [5] Zinc - **Core View**: Sell on rebounds. Zinc supply is increasing while demand is weak in the long - term. [1] - **Price Range**: SHFE zinc [22300, 22900]; LME zinc [2580, 2680] dollars/ton [1][7] - **Market Performance**: During the May Day holiday, LME zinc first declined and then rebounded, with an overall decline of 0.7%. [6] - **Industrial Logic**: In 2025, the zinc ore supply is expected to increase, and domestic smelter raw material supply is sufficient. Downstream demand is weakening as the peak season ends, and the steel market is sluggish. [6] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Sell on rebounds in the short - term. Seize short - selling opportunities in the long - term. [7] Aluminum - **Core View**: Under pressure. There is a risk of inventory accumulation after the holiday, and downstream processing enterprises' operating rates are declining. [1] - **Price Range**: [19500 - 20100] [1] - **Market Performance**: Aluminum prices are under short - term pressure, while alumina is stabilizing at a low level. [8] - **Industrial Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, overseas tariff policy impact is weakening. Domestic inventory is decreasing, but downstream demand is weakening. For alumina, supply - demand surplus is temporarily alleviated, and inventory is at a high level. [9] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Lightly buy on dips for SHFE aluminum, focusing on the terminal peak - season performance. Alumina is expected to be relatively weak. [9] Nickel - **Core View**: Under pressure. Indonesian nickel ore cost increases support the price, but domestic inventory is high, and stainless steel inventory is also at a high level. [1] - **Price Range**: [120000 - 127000] [11] - **Market Performance**: Nickel prices are under pressure, and stainless steel rebounds and then declines. [10] - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas macro - environment impact is weakening. Indonesian nickel ore cost increases support the price, but domestic refined nickel production is high, and inventory is at a high level. Stainless steel inventory reduction faces resistance, and the overall supply - demand is in surplus. [11] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Temporarily wait and see, focusing on inventory changes. [11] Lithium Carbonate - **Core View**: Bearish in May. Supply - demand remains loose, inventory is accumulating, and ore prices are declining. [1] - **Price Range**: [65000, 66500] [1] - **Market Performance**: The main contract LC2507 opened slightly lower, rose and then fell, hitting a new low. [12] - **Industrial Logic**: In May, supply is sufficient as salt - lake lithium production enters the peak season, and overseas lithium ore shipments increase. Demand shows no seasonal increase, and tariff policies affect exports. Costs are decreasing as ore prices approach last year's lows. [13] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Weak operation, sell on rebounds. [13]