业内人士指出，从过往经验来看，每一轮大宗商品周期都很长（一轮完整的大宗商品周期为25-30年， 其中上行8-10年，下行15-20年），一旦方向确立，大宗商品周期则会持续很长时间，不会在两三年结 束。展望后市，有色金属板块有望持续走牛也成为机构普遍共识。此外，中金公司认为，随着短期情绪 释放与交易拥挤度明显下降，相关资源股行情并未结束，历经短期调整后中期有望重拾升势。 2月24日，春节后的第一个交易日，A股三大指数均大幅高开，有色板块表现尤为强势。揽尽有色金属 龙头的热门ETF品种——有色ETF华宝（159876）场内价格飙涨超3.6%。截至发稿，有色ETF华宝 （159876）获资金实时净申购720万份，呈现出资金看好有色后市，积极入场布局。 有色ETF华宝（159876）及其联接基金（017140）标的指数全面覆盖铜、铝、黄金、稀土、锂等行业， 涵盖贵金属（避险）、战略金属（成长）、工业金属（复苏）等不同景气周期，全品类覆盖能够更好把 握整个板块的贝塔行情。 中国银河证券建议把握"AI飞跃+百年变局"共振下的有色金属超级周期。回顾历史，每一轮超级铜周期 都对应一段清晰而强大的宏观叙事，而本轮周期同时叠加了 ...

业内人士指出，从过往经验来看，每一轮大宗商品周期都很长（一轮完整的大宗商品周期为25-30年， 其中上行8-10年，下行15-20年），一旦方向确立，大宗商品周期则会持续很长时间，不会在两三年结 束。展望后市，有色金属板块有望持续走牛也成为机构普遍共识。此外，中金公司认为，随着短期情绪 释放与交易拥挤度明显下降，相关资源股行情并未结束，历经短期调整后中期有望重拾升势。 有色ETF华宝（159876）及其联接基金（017140）标的指数全面覆盖铜、铝、黄金、稀土、锂等行业， 涵盖贵金属（避险）、战略金属（成长）、工业金属（复苏）等不同景气周期，全品类覆盖能够更好把 握整个板块的贝塔行情。 中国银河证券建议把握"AI飞跃+百年变局"共振下的有色金属超级周期。回顾历史，每一轮超级铜周期 都对应一段清晰而强大的宏观叙事，而本轮周期同时叠加了"AI科技革命"与"全球秩序重塑"两大长期逻 辑，其持续性和战略意义不亚于战后重建、我国对外开放等历史阶段。 有色板块止跌反弹的势头愈发强劲。2月12日，中证有色指数继续反弹，一度涨逾1.5%，跟踪该指数的 热门ETF品种——有色ETF华宝（159876）开盘后持续走高，目前涨超1 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a rebound in the non-ferrous metals sector after a significant decline, with the China Securities Nonferrous Metals Index dropping over 15% in just seven trading days since January 29 [1] - The recent performance of the popular ETF tracking the index, Huabao Nonferrous ETF (159876), shows a notable increase of 2.73% [1] - China Galaxy Securities suggests capitalizing on the "AI leap + century change" resonance, indicating a super cycle in non-ferrous metals driven by the "AI technology revolution" and "global order reshaping" [1] Group 2 - Historical analysis indicates that each super copper cycle corresponds with a strong macro narrative, and the current cycle is expected to have a strategic significance comparable to post-war reconstruction and China's opening up [1] - Industry experts note that commodity cycles are typically long, lasting 25 to 30 years, with upward trends lasting 8 to 10 years and downward trends lasting 15 to 20 years, suggesting a prolonged bullish phase for non-ferrous metals [1] - The Huabao Nonferrous ETF (159876) and its linked fund (017140) cover a wide range of sectors including copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium, allowing for better exposure to the entire sector's beta performance [1]

Group 1: Market Overview - The market in January transitioned from event-driven risk aversion to concerns over global order restructuring, with expanding global trust fractures and structural contradictions in silver supply and demand driving gold and silver prices higher [1] - For February, the expectation is that gold and silver will not experience a trend reversal, but attention should be paid to the marginal changes brought by subsequent risk events and potential shifts in U.S. macroeconomic expectations [1] Group 2: Gold Fundamentals - Total gold supply for the first three quarters of 2025 is projected at 3,717 tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.2%, with Q3 supply reaching a historical high of 1,313 tons, up 3% year-on-year [2][3] - Gold demand for the same period is expected to grow by 1% to 3,717 tons, corresponding to a value of $38.4 billion, a 41% year-on-year increase, with Q3 demand also hitting a record high [3] - Investment demand remains dominant, with global gold ETF holdings increasing significantly by 222 tons, and gold bar and coin demand surpassing 300 tons for the fourth consecutive quarter [3] Group 3: Central Bank Gold Purchases - Central bank gold purchases have continued to mitigate the pressure from U.S. interest rate hikes, with approximately 2,500 tons bought since 2022, despite a net outflow of 745.6 tons from gold ETFs during the same period [5] - Emerging market central banks, including those from China, Turkey, Poland, and India, continue to increase their gold reserves, with Poland planning to purchase an additional 150 tons [5] Group 4: Silver Fundamentals - Since Q3 2025, silver has shown a relatively independent market performance, driven by long-term supply-demand contradictions and a low valuation compared to gold [8][9] - The silver market has been experiencing a supply-demand gap since 2021, exacerbated by the rapid growth of the photovoltaic industry, which has created new demand for silver [10] Group 5: Silver Demand in Industrial Applications - The demand for silver in the photovoltaic sector is expected to face challenges due to a trend of reduced silver consumption per unit, with projections indicating a decrease in silver powder production for photovoltaic applications [13][14] - The development of electric vehicles and data centers is anticipated to provide marginal demand increases for silver, with automotive silver demand projected to grow by 3.4% annually from 2025 to 2031 [15]

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - Gold: ★☆☆, representing a bullish trend with limited trading opportunities on the market [1] - Silver: ★★★, indicating a clearer bullish trend and relatively appropriate current investment opportunities [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overnight, precious metals continued to rebound. The narrative of the US dollar credit crisis and the reshaping of the global order has not reversed, but in the short - term, it is mainly about capital games. Precious metals have entered a high - level consolidation phase, and it is advisable to wait and see for now until volatility decreases. Attention should be paid to the development of geopolitical situations and a series of economic data including non - farm payrolls this week. Tonight, focus on US ADP employment and ISM non - manufacturing PMI data [1] 3. Summary Based on Related News - Trump signed a bill to end a partial government shutdown [2] - Fed's Barkin: Rate cuts support the job market, and the task of combating inflation still has the last step to go; Governor Mille: Interest rates need to be cut by slightly more than one percentage point this year. No over - interpretation of metal market price fluctuations. In the long run, hopes for a smaller Fed balance - sheet size [2] - US officials said the US military shot down an Iranian drone approaching the USS Lincoln. The White House: Despite Iran's request to adjust the location and form of the talks, the US - Iran talks are still planned to be held this week, and the US still retains military options. It is reported that Iranian armed speedboats tried to stop a US - flagged oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz but failed. Iranian diplomatic sources: Iran has entered the highest level of defensive alert and is ready for any situation [2]

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector is experiencing a rebound, with significant inflows into the Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF, indicating a potential super cycle driven by the "AI leap" and "century change" narratives [1][2] Group 1: Market Performance - On February 3, the non-ferrous sector saw a rebound, with the Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF (159876) rising by 3% [1] - Over the past 20 trading days, the net inflow into the Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF has reached nearly 1.7 billion yuan, increasing its fund size to 2.59 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Industry Outlook - China Galaxy Securities suggests capitalizing on the super cycle of non-ferrous metals, which is supported by the "AI technology revolution" and "global order reshaping" [1] - Historical data indicates that commodity cycles last long, typically 25-30 years, with upward trends lasting 8-10 years and downward trends lasting 15-20 years [1] - Institutions generally agree that the non-ferrous metal sector is likely to continue its bullish trend, with expectations of a bull market driven by monetary, demand, and supply factors by 2026 [1] Group 3: ETF Coverage - The Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF (159876) and its linked fund (017140) cover a wide range of indices, including copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium, allowing for better exposure to various market cycles [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant fluctuations in gold and silver prices, attributed to the nomination of Kevin Walsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman, which raised concerns about tightening liquidity in the financial markets [1] - During the Asian trading session, gold futures prices dropped to $4423.2 per ounce, while silver futures fell to $71.2 per ounce, indicating a severe sell-off in the precious metals market [1] - The market reacted to Walsh's hawkish stance, which is perceived as less favorable for non-yielding assets like gold and silver, leading to a strong dollar index and reduced attractiveness for international buyers [1] Group 2 - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange raised margin requirements for gold and silver futures, increasing the margin ratio for gold from 6.6% to 8.8% and for silver from 12.1% to 16.5%, effective after the close on Monday [1] - The increase in margin requirements necessitates that investors provide more cash or equivalent assets to maintain their positions, which could lead to forced liquidations among leveraged traders and a freeze in liquidity [1] - Despite the recent sharp decline, several institutions believe that the long-term narrative regarding the dollar credit crisis and the restructuring of global order has not fundamentally changed, suggesting that precious metals may enter a phase of high volatility after the drop [1]

Group 1 - The domestic precious metals sector faced significant losses on February 2, with the main contract for silver futures hitting the limit down [1] - Dongwu Futures believes that the short-term adjustment does not alter the long-term upward trend, and the fundamental drivers for the long-term rise in precious metals have not experienced a substantial reversal [1] - Guotou Anxin Futures points out that the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the new Federal Reserve Chairman by Trump triggered the sell-off, but the main factor is the accumulation of risks from previous excessive gains [1] Group 2 - Jinrui Futures indicates a short-term bearish outlook (1-2 weeks) and warns of liquidity risks, while the medium-term outlook (1-3 months) suggests that if the Federal Reserve resumes rate cuts or geopolitical tensions escalate, silver prices may recover [1] - The market is advised to avoid blind bottom-fishing and to be cautious of extreme volatility [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the non-ferrous metal sector is experiencing a rebound, with significant trading volume and price increases observed in related ETFs [1][3] - The non-ferrous metal sector is expected to enter a super cycle driven by the convergence of the "AI leap" and "century change," with historical patterns indicating that commodity cycles can last 25-30 years, with upward trends lasting 8-10 years [3] - Major non-ferrous metal ETFs, such as the one from China Merchants (159690), have a high concentration in key commodities like copper (31%), gold (14%), and aluminum (12%), which together account for nearly 60% of the portfolio [3] Group 2 - Analysts predict that by 2026, the non-ferrous metal industry may experience a bull market driven by a combination of monetary, demand, and supply factors [3] - The non-ferrous metal sector is characterized by a "leverage effect," where rising metal prices lead to significant profit increases for mining companies, resulting in a "Davis double play" scenario where net asset value increases multiple times compared to the commodity price itself [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the non-ferrous metal sector is experiencing a significant upward trend, driven by a combination of the "AI leap" and the "century change" narrative, suggesting a super cycle for non-ferrous metals [1] - The popular ETF, Huabao Non-ferrous ETF (159876), saw a peak increase of 4% before a quick decline, followed by a V-shaped recovery, currently up by 0.3% [1] - There has been a substantial inflow of funds into the Huabao Non-ferrous ETF, with over 1.1 million shares net subscribed recently, and a total net inflow exceeding 1.4 billion yuan over the last 20 trading days, bringing the fund's total size to 2.68 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - Historical data indicates that each commodity cycle lasts approximately 25-30 years, with upward trends lasting 8-10 years and downward trends lasting 15-20 years, suggesting a long-term bullish outlook for the non-ferrous metal sector [2] - Institutions generally agree that the non-ferrous metal sector is likely to continue its bullish trend, with expectations of a bull market driven by monetary, demand, and supply factors by 2026 [2] - The Huabao Non-ferrous ETF (159876) and its linked fund (017140) cover a wide range of metals including copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium, allowing for better exposure to various market cycles [2]