财政数据 宏 观 研 究 2026 年 01 月 31 日 财政金融协同，蓄力"开门红" —— 12 月财政数据点评 事件：1 月 30 日，财政部公布 2025 年财政收支情况。2025 年，全国一般公共预算收入 216045 亿元，比上年下降 1.7%；全国一般公共预算支出 287395 亿元，比上年增长 1%。 核心观点：财政收支分化加剧，后续政策重心或转向"财政金融协同" 12 月广义财政收支呈现收入端深度调整、支出端维持韧性的收支显著分化特征。 12 月广义财 政收入同比-18.5%，较 11 月下滑 13.3 个百分点，创下年内最低水平；广义财政支出同比-0.7%， 较 11 月降幅收窄 1 个百分点。从预算完成度看，收入完成度不及往年同期，但支出端在年末 稳增长诉求下保持了相对强度，显示出年底在收入承压背景下财政仍在加快支出、托底经济。 收入端大幅回落主要受一般财政收入下滑拖累，土地出让收入则呈现小幅改善。12 月一般财政 收入同比骤降至-25%，或部分受到2024年同期的高基数效应影响。其中，非税收入同比-47.9% 成为最大拖累，或与下半年起非税收入征管规范有关。12 月政府性基金收入降幅收 ...

事件： 1月30日，财政部公布2025年财政收支情况。 2025年，全国一般公共预算收入216045亿元，比上 年下降1.7%；全国一般公共预算支出287395亿元，比上年增长1%。 核心观点：财政收支分化加剧，后续政策重心或转向"财政金融协同" 支出端结构优化，基建类支出提速，增量政策资金亦正加速落地。 尽管收入端承压，但广义财政支出降 幅持续收窄。结构上，城乡社区支出同比大增12.8%，增速由负转正，叠加科学技术支出占比提升，印证 了年末基建、城市更新及科创领域的投入力度加大。政府性基金支出虽增速小幅回落但仍维持1.5%的正 增长，或表明5000亿元专项债结存限额正在加速落地。 往后看，一季度经济"开门红"或有赖财政金融协同发力，重点关注贴息扩围与新基建投资。 2026年一季 度政策加码或更加倚重"财政金融协同"。结合近期部委发布会信号，财政端将通过扩大消费贷及设备更 新贴息范围（如纳入服务消费、数字化转型等），配合央行结构性降息协同撬动内需。同时，"十五 五"规划建议指引下，财政资金将进一步向新基建倾斜，通过"适度超前新基建"，确保存量债务化解与增 量经济发展并重。 常规跟踪：广义财政收支分化，支出降幅 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent series of policies issued by the Ministry of Finance and other departments aims to promote domestic demand through financial and fiscal collaboration, focusing on stimulating private investment and enhancing consumer spending, which will provide tangible benefits to businesses and individuals [1][2]. Group 1: Stimulating Private Investment - The new policies significantly enhance support for private investment, utilizing tools such as loan interest subsidies and guarantee compensation to lower financing costs and barriers for private enterprises [2]. - A new loan interest subsidy for small and micro enterprises will provide a 1.5% annual subsidy on the principal for up to two years, with a maximum loan amount of 50 million yuan per entity, covering 14 key industries including new energy vehicles and medical equipment [2]. - The newly established special guarantee plan for private investment aims to provide guarantees for loans to small and micro private enterprises, with a total planned amount of 500 billion yuan over two years, supporting various production and operational activities [2][3]. Group 2: Enhancing Consumer Spending - The policies also focus on boosting consumer spending, which is crucial for improving livelihoods and sustaining economic growth, with updates to personal consumption loan interest subsidies and service industry loan interest subsidies [4]. - The updated personal consumption loan interest subsidy allows for a maximum subsidy of 3,000 yuan per transaction, significantly increasing the potential support for large purchases and enhancing consumer purchasing power [5]. - The service industry loan interest subsidy has been optimized, increasing the maximum loan amount from 1 million yuan to 10 million yuan, with a 1% interest subsidy for one year, benefiting a wider range of consumption sectors [5]. Group 3: Implementation and Effectiveness - The comprehensive policies aim to enhance support for private investment and consumer spending, aligning fiscal policy with bank credit activities to release policy dividends more effectively [6]. - The Ministry of Finance emphasizes the need for efficient implementation, simplifying processes to ensure that benefits are accessible without cumbersome applications, and ensuring that fiscal expenditures are adequately budgeted for 2026 [6].

Core Viewpoint - The recent series of policies issued by the Ministry of Finance and other departments aims to promote domestic demand through financial and fiscal collaboration, focusing on stimulating private investment and enhancing consumer spending [1] Group 1: Stimulating Private Investment - The new policies significantly enhance support for private investment, utilizing tools like loan interest subsidies and guarantee compensation to lower financing costs and barriers for private enterprises [2] - A new loan interest subsidy for small and micro enterprises will provide a 1.5% annual subsidy on loan principal for up to two years, with a maximum loan amount of 50 million yuan per entity [2] - The newly established special guarantee plan for private investment aims to provide guarantees for loans to small and micro private enterprises, with a total planned amount of 500 billion yuan over two years [2][3] - The policies also expand the scope of support to include medium-sized enterprises, increasing the single credit limit to 20 million yuan [2] Group 2: Enhancing Consumer Spending - The updated personal consumption loan interest subsidy policy significantly broadens its beneficiary scope, allowing for a maximum subsidy of 3,000 yuan per transaction, thus encouraging large-scale consumer spending [4][5] - The service industry loan interest subsidy policy has been optimized, increasing the single loan limit from 1 million yuan to 10 million yuan, with a subsidy of 1% for one year [5] - The implementation period for both personal consumption and service industry loan interest subsidies has been extended to the end of 2026, aiming to create a favorable environment for consumption [5] Group 3: Policy Implementation and Effectiveness - The coordinated fiscal and financial policies are designed to release policy dividends more effectively, aligning with the increased credit issuance in the first quarter [6] - The policies emphasize convenience and efficiency, aiming for direct benefits without complex application processes, thus ensuring that financial support is readily accessible [6] - Sufficient budgetary arrangements have been made for the necessary fiscal expenditures in 2026, encouraging local and managing institutions to actively engage in business [6]

Core Insights - The recent series of policies from the Ministry of Finance aims to promote domestic demand through financial collaboration, focusing on stimulating private investment and enhancing consumer spending [1][2] Group 1: Stimulating Private Investment - The new policies significantly enhance support for private investment, utilizing tools like loan interest subsidies and guarantee compensation to lower financing costs and barriers for private enterprises [2] - A new loan interest subsidy for small and micro enterprises will provide a 1.5% annual subsidy on loan principal for up to two years, with a maximum loan amount of 50 million yuan [2] - The newly established special guarantee plan for private investment aims to support loans for small and micro private enterprises with a total plan amount of 500 billion yuan over two years, covering various production and operational activities [2][3] Group 2: Enhancing Consumer Spending - The updated personal consumption loan interest subsidy policy significantly broadens its scope, allowing for a maximum subsidy of 3,000 yuan per transaction, thus encouraging larger consumer purchases [4][5] - The service industry loan interest subsidy policy has been optimized, increasing the maximum loan amount from 1 million yuan to 10 million yuan, with a 1% subsidy for one year [5] - The implementation period for both personal consumption and service industry loan interest subsidies has been extended to the end of 2026, aiming to create a favorable environment for consumption [5][6] Group 3: Policy Implementation and Effectiveness - The coordinated approach between fiscal and financial policies aims to release policy dividends more effectively, with a focus on simplifying processes and ensuring direct benefits to enterprises and consumers [6] - The government has made sufficient budget arrangements for the necessary fiscal expenditures related to these policies, encouraging local institutions to actively engage in business [6]

2025年12月末，上海市本外币贷款余额13.07万亿元，同比增长6.5%，比全国高0.3个百分点。从资金投 向看，2025年12月末，信息技术业、科研服务业、普惠小微贷款余额同比分别增长35.4%、23.4%和 14%。从融资成本看，2025年12月，上海市新发放企业贷款加权平均利率为2.64%，较上年同期下降38 个基点，处于历史低位。其中，小微企业贷款加权平均利率为2.96%，较上年同期下降30个基点。 下阶段，人民银行上海总部将继续实施好适度宽松的货币政策，落实好财政金融协同促内需一揽子政策 措施，促进社会综合融资成本低位运行，持续提升金融服务实体经济的质效，深化金融改革和高水平对 外开放，为上海实现"十五五"良好开局提供有力的金融支持。 1月29日，人民银行上海总部召开2026年第一季度新闻发布会，介绍2025年上海金融运行情况。 中国证券报·中证金牛座记者从会上获悉，2025年全年上海社会融资规模增加11632亿元，同比多增1021 亿元，较好满足了实体经济的融资需求。 从融资结构看，对实体经济发放的人民币贷款增加6589亿元，占社融增量的56.6%。直接融资增加3419 亿元，占社融增量的29. ...

新年伊始，更加积极有为的宏观政策靠前发力。从财政金融促内需一揽子政策，到下调各类结构性货币 政策工具利率、完善结构性工具并加大支持力度，财政、货币政策工具箱频频亮出新的"大招"。 按照中央经济工作会议部署，2026年继续实施更加积极的财政政策。这也是财政政策连续两年锚定"更 加积极"这一取向。站在"十五五"开局的新起点，更加积极的财政政策再次发力，赋能经济发展、提升 民生福祉。 更大支出盘子增强动力 日前，2026年第一批936亿元超长期特别国债支持设备更新资金下达，支持工业、能源电力、教育、医 疗、住宅老旧电梯等领域约4500个项目，预计带动总投资超过4600亿元；同时，采取直接向地方下达资 金的方式，继续支持老旧营运货车报废更新、新能源城市公交车更新、老旧农机报废更新。此前，2026 年第一批625亿元超长期特别国债支持消费品以旧换新资金计划也已向地方提前下达。 财政赤字、超长期特别国债、地方政府专项债券……这些都是实施积极财政政策的重要工具。进入实 施"更加积极"财政政策的第二年，超长期特别国债率先发力，继续支持"两重""两新"，向扩大内需注入 动能。 近期公布的我国经济2025年"成绩单"显示，国内生 ...

再次，设备更新贷款贴息政策的"普惠性扩围"同样提质增效。政策不仅覆盖设备购置，还将科技创新类 贷款纳入贴息支持，推动企业加快技术改造和设备更新，提升产业链现代化水平。 总体来看，这些创新举措体现出几个鲜明特征： 其一是政策目标协同供需双侧、兼顾长短周期。专项担保计划聚焦扩大民间投资，贴息政策覆盖设备更 新、服务业、消费等多个领域，体现出同时从供给侧（支持企业投资、技术改造）和需求侧（刺激消 费、升级服务）发力，这不仅稳定经济大盘，更可以通过支持科技创新、数智化改造等培育中长期增长 动能，体现了"逆周期调节"与"跨周期布局"的有机结合。其二是财政与金融政策深度协同，通过担保、 贴息、风险分担等机制形成政策合力。其三是精准支持实体经济关键领域，特别是民间投资、科技创新 和消费扩容。其四是注重长效机制建设，财政政策从直接"给钱"到构建"机制"，通过制度性安排与机制 化创新，增强市场主体预期，推动形成可持续的内需增长动力。 财政金融协同促内需一揽子政策陆续出台。继央行宣布推出八项政策举措之后，1月20日，财政部联合 相关部门连续发布五个文件，提出六项政策，以更大力度激发民间投资、促进居民消费。其中四项为支 持民间投资 ...

文 ： 华创证券首席经济学家 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 袁玲玲（微信 Yuen43） 报告摘要 自1月9日国常会部署实施财政金融协同促内需一揽子政策后，近期多项财政金融协同促内需一揽子政 策落地。 1、设备更新贴息政策： 1月19日，财政部等关于优化实施设备更新贷款财政贴息政策的通知。政策实 施期限延迟至2026年底，新增建筑和市政、用能设备、航空器材、电子信息、安全生产、设施农业、 渔船、冷链设施、粮油加工、废弃物循环利用、小水电、消费商业设施、人工智能、养老等领域。1月 22日，国家发改委公告2026年第一批936亿元超长期特别国债支持设备更新资金已经下达，支持工 业、能源电力、教育、医疗、粮油加工、海关查验、住宅老旧电梯、节能降碳环保、回收循环利用等 领域约4500个项目，带动总投资超过4600亿元。 2、消费贷贴息政策 ：1月20日，财政部等发布《关于优化实施个人消费贷款财政贴息政策有关事项的 通知》，将政策延续到2026年底，将信用卡账单分期业务纳入支持范围，扩大经办机构范围等。 3、中小企业及民间投资 ：财政部等印发《关于实施中小微企业贷款贴息政策的通知》《关于实施 ...

近日，财政部会同央行等有关部门"六箭齐发"，部署一系列财政金融协同促内需政策。这套"组合 拳"创新政策工具，加强财政政策与金融政策联动配合，精准激发民间投资、促进居民消费，推动内需 成为经济发展的主动力。 (责任编辑：武晓娟) 一揽子政策充分创新。针对企业和市场的实际需要，组合运用贷款贴息、担保补偿等政策工具，新 推出中小微企业贷款贴息、民间投资专项担保计划、支持民营企业债券风险分担机制三项重要政策。从 支持民间投资政策看，既瞄准降低融资门槛，又着力降低融资成本，体现了对解决融资难、融资贵问题 的总体考量。在以贴息、担保等方式支持间接融资的同时，又以风险补偿方式助力直接融资，中央财政 安排风险分担资金，与央行相关政策工具协同配合，为民营企业和私募股权投资机构发行债券提供增信 支持。加强财政金融协同创新，聚焦支持关键领域和重点群体，更好发挥扩大内需效能，丰富了宏观政 策工具箱。 一揽子政策着力优化。推出增量政策能够向经济注入新动能，实施好存量政策则可持续发挥政策效 能。财政金融协同，需要重视发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应。此次发布的六项政策中，有三项属 于"优化实施"，即设备更新贷款贴息政策、服务业经营主体贷款 ...