Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In August 2025, financial data showed that fiscal policy continued to exert force in advance, the total financing volume increased, and corporate financing improved, but the recovery foundation of real - sector financing demand was still weak and needed to be consolidated. Future credit demand depends on the progress of fiscal expenditures such as ultra - long - term special treasury bonds and the effect of the traditional peak season of "Golden September and Silver October" in the real estate market. - For the bond market, the data reflected the overall weakness of real - sector financing demand, which should have supported the bond market. However, the bond market experienced a significant adjustment that month. In a pessimistic sentiment, the market interpreted the structural improvement of the data relatively positively. Looking ahead, with the weak endogenous economic momentum, the central bank's monetary policy will remain moderately loose, and the bond market does not have the basis for a long - term sharp decline. [1][21] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 8 - month Social Financing Data Analysis - **Overall Social Financing Scale**: The stock of social financing scale was 433.66 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 8.8%. The cumulative increment of social financing scale in the first eight months was 26.56 trillion yuan, 4.66 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. In August, the increment of social financing scale was 2.57 trillion yuan, 1.44 trillion yuan more than the previous month, indicating a recovery in financing demand after the low point in July, but still 463 billion yuan less than the same period last year. [5] - **Financing Structure**: - **Government Bonds**: Net financing of government bonds was 1.37 trillion yuan, still the core support. However, affected by the high base last year, the year - on - year contribution decreased marginally (a decrease of 251.9 billion yuan), ending the previous consecutive over - increase trend. - **Loans to the Real Economy**: RMB loans issued to the real economy increased by 623.3 billion yuan, 417.8 billion yuan less than the same period last year, indicating that real - sector financing demand still needed further boosting. - **Direct Financing**: Bond net financing was 134.3 billion yuan, 36 billion yuan less than the same period last year; stock financing was 45.7 billion yuan, 32.5 billion yuan more than the same period last year, which was in line with the current situation of a strong stock market and a weak bond market. - **Off - balance - sheet Bill Financing**: It was relatively active. The monthly new increase was 215.8 billion yuan, nearly 100 billion yuan more than the same period last year; the new increase in undiscounted bank acceptance bills was 197.4 billion yuan, 132.3 billion yuan more than the same period last year, which to some extent replaced part of the on - balance - sheet bill demand. [5] Money Supply - The balance of broad money (M2) was 331.98 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 8.8%, the same as the previous month; the balance of narrow money (M1) was 111.23 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 6.0%, 0.4 percentage points faster than the previous month. The M2 - M1 gap further narrowed to 2.8 percentage points, the lowest since June 2021, indicating an increase in the activation degree of funds. [11] RMB Loans - In August, new RMB loans were 590 billion yuan. The intensity of credit delivery increased compared with July, with a month - on - month increase of 640 billion yuan, but still 310 billion yuan less than the same period last year. - **Corporate Loans**: The structure of corporate loans improved. Medium - and long - term loans increased by 470 billion yuan, basically close to the level of the same period last year. Short - term loans increased by 70 billion yuan, 260 billion yuan more than the same period last year. Bill financing decreased by 492 billion yuan year - on - year, indicating a reduction in bill - padding by banks and relatively optimized credit quality. - **Resident Loans**: Resident loans were still weak. Short - term loans increased by 10 billion yuan, 61.1 billion yuan less than the same period last year; medium - and long - term loans increased by 20 billion yuan, 100 billion yuan less than the same period last year, reflecting that the overall momentum of consumption and housing purchase demand was not strong. [16]

Group 1 - As of the end of August, the broad money supply (M2) reached 331.98 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 8.8% [1] - The narrow money supply (M1) stood at 111.23 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 6% [1] - The cash in circulation (M0) was 13.34 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 11.7% [1] Group 2 - The total social financing increment for the first eight months was 26.56 trillion yuan, which is 4.66 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [2] - The increase in RMB loans to the real economy was 12.93 trillion yuan, which is a decrease of 4.85 trillion yuan compared to the previous year [2] - Net financing from government bonds was 10.27 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.63 trillion yuan year-on-year [2] Group 3 - By the end of August, the total social financing stock was 433.66 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.8% [3] - The balance of RMB loans to the real economy was 265.42 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 6.6% [3] - The balance of government bonds increased by 21.1% year-on-year, reaching 91.36 trillion yuan [3] Group 4 - The balance of RMB loans as of the end of August was 269.1 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.8% [4] - In the first eight months, RMB loans increased by 13.46 trillion yuan, with household loans rising by 711 billion yuan [4] - Loans to enterprises increased by 12.22 trillion yuan during the same period [4] Group 5 - The balance of RMB deposits reached 322.73 trillion yuan by the end of August, with a year-on-year growth of 8.6% [5] - In the first eight months, RMB deposits increased by 20.5 trillion yuan, with household deposits rising by 9.77 trillion yuan [5] - Non-financial enterprise deposits increased by 610.6 billion yuan during this period [5] Group 6 - The weighted average interbank lending rate in August was 1.4%, down 0.37 percentage points from the same period last year [6] - The weighted average rate for pledged repos was 1.41%, which is 0.38 percentage points lower year-on-year [6] Group 7 - The one-year loan market quoted rate was 3.00% as of August 20, down 0.1 percentage points from the end of last year [7] - The quoted rate for loans over five years was 3.50%, also down 0.1 percentage points compared to the end of last year [7] Group 8 - As of the end of August, the RMB exchange rate index fell by 4.83% compared to the end of last year [8] - The RMB to USD exchange rate was 7.1030, appreciating by 1.20% year-on-year [8] - The RMB to Euro exchange rate depreciated by 9.34% compared to the end of last year [8]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The macroeconomic environment shows signs of a turning point in liquidity, with social financing growth slowing to 18.8% in August 2025, indicating a positive signal for the bond market [1][3] - China's exports in August 2025 increased by 3%, while imports decreased by 1%, influenced by weak global demand and trade tensions with the U.S. [1][5] - The U.S. job market remains robust with an unemployment rate of 3.9%, but labor participation has slightly declined [6][7] Core Insights and Arguments - **Social Financing and Credit**: In August, social financing increased by 2.57 trillion yuan, down 4.6 billion yuan year-on-year, with a credit increase of 620 billion yuan, reflecting a decline in government bond issuance [3][4] - **Inflation Trends**: China's CPI rose by 2.3% year-on-year, while PPI fell by 1.6%, indicating structural issues between consumer and production sectors [1][5] - **Short-term Loans**: There was a significant increase in short-term loans in August, attributed to improved corporate production intentions and a recovery in the manufacturing sector [8] - **Bill Market Performance**: The bill market saw a year-on-year increase in acceptance and discount amounts, but overall financing decreased, reflecting a weaker demand for bank loans [9][10] Additional Important Insights - **Deposit Trends**: Resident deposits decreased by 600 billion yuan year-on-year, while non-bank financial institution deposits increased by 550 billion yuan, indicating a potential shift of funds from banks to other investment avenues [11] - **M1 and M2 Growth**: M1 growth rose to 6.0%, while M2 growth remained stable, suggesting enhanced liquidity in the economy [12] - **Bond Market Dynamics**: The bond market has seen a general upward trend since August, driven by improved risk appetite and a lack of major asset allocation [13][14] - **Future Export Outlook**: The export growth rate is expected to slow down in the coming months due to increased tariffs and weakened demand from key markets [18][19] Conclusion - The macroeconomic landscape is characterized by a mix of challenges and opportunities, with signs of liquidity turning points, inflationary pressures, and evolving trade dynamics. The bond market's performance and the outlook for exports will be critical areas to monitor in the coming months.

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China reported that in August, new RMB loans increased by approximately 590 billion yuan, indicating strong support for the real economy and a need for future monetary policy to focus on structural optimization [1][2][5]. Group 1: Credit Growth - In the first eight months, RMB loans increased by a total of 13.46 trillion yuan, with August alone contributing about 590 billion yuan, resulting in a year-on-year growth of 6.8% in loan balances [2][5]. - The growth in credit is supported by factors such as industry recovery, resilient exports, summer consumption peaks, and real estate support policies [2][3]. - Corporate loans in August increased by approximately 590 billion yuan, with a significant portion benefiting from improved production conditions [2][4]. Group 2: Monetary Supply and Structure - As of the end of August, the broad money supply (M2) stood at 331.98 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.8%, while the narrow money supply (M1) reached 111.23 trillion yuan, growing by 6% [5][6]. - The M1-M2 spread narrowed to 2.8%, the lowest level since June 2021, indicating a shift towards more liquid deposits that can support consumption and investment [6][7]. - The government bond net financing scale reached 10.27 trillion yuan in the first eight months, which is 4.63 trillion yuan more than the previous year, contributing positively to the social financing growth [5][6]. Group 3: Policy Implications - Experts suggest that future monetary policy should focus on optimizing the structure of financial support rather than merely increasing the total volume [6][7]. - Structural monetary policy tools are expected to enhance financial institutions' ability and willingness to support key sectors, while also coordinating with fiscal measures to improve effectiveness [7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the Hong Kong Monetary Authority reported a decline in the money supply in July, with M2 and M3 both down by 1.8% month-on-month, but up by 6.2% year-on-year [1] - The seasonally adjusted M1 money supply decreased by 2.3% in July, while it increased by 18.5% compared to the same month last year, reflecting investment-related activities [1] - Total deposits from recognized institutions rose by 0.2% in July, with Hong Kong dollar deposits down by 2.0% and foreign currency deposits up by 1.9%, indicating corporate fund flows [1] Group 2 - The total amount of loans and advances decreased by 1.1% in July, but increased by 1.3% year-to-date [2] - Loans used in Hong Kong and those used outside Hong Kong fell by 1.0% and 1.7% respectively in July [2] - The loan-to-deposit ratio for Hong Kong dollars increased from 72.0% at the end of June to 73.1% at the end of July, as the decline in Hong Kong dollar deposits was greater than that of loans [2]

Group 1 - The total deposits of authorized institutions in Hong Kong increased by 0.2% in July 2025, with HKD deposits decreasing by 2.0% and foreign currency deposits rising by 1.9%, reflecting corporate fund flows [1] - As of the end of July, RMB deposits in Hong Kong rose by 6.4% to 938.2 billion RMB, primarily due to corporate fund flows [1] - The total amount of cross-border trade settlement in RMB for July was 1,244.3 billion RMB, up from 1,223.5 billion RMB in June [1] Group 2 - The total amount of loans and advances decreased by 1.1% in July, but increased by 1.3% year-to-date as of the end of July [1] - The loan-to-deposit ratio for HKD increased from 72.0% at the end of June to 73.1% at the end of July due to a larger decline in HKD deposits compared to HKD loans [1] - The M2 and M3 money supply in HKD both decreased by 1.8% in July, while year-on-year comparisons showed increases of 6.2% [2] Group 3 - Seasonally adjusted M1 money supply in HKD fell by 2.3% in July, but increased by 18.5% compared to the same month last year, reflecting investment-related activities [2] - The total money supply (M2 and M3) increased by 0.1% in July, with year-on-year increases of 10.8% for both M2 and M3 [2] - Monthly monetary statistics may be influenced by various short-term factors, such as seasonal funding demands and business-related activities, necessitating careful interpretation of the data [2]

Core Viewpoint - The central bank emphasizes the implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy in the second quarter of 2025, aiming to align monetary supply with economic growth and price level expectations [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy Implementation - The central bank plans to ensure ample liquidity in the financial system to support economic activities [1] - The focus will be on matching the growth of social financing and money supply with economic growth and price level expectations [1] - Promoting a reasonable recovery of prices is highlighted as a key consideration in monetary policy [1]

Monetary Policy Stance - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) will implement a moderately easing monetary policy [1] - The PBOC will maintain ample liquidity in the market [1] - The PBOC aims to align the growth of social financing and money supply with economic growth and price stability targets [1] - The PBOC considers promoting a reasonable rebound in prices as an important factor in monetary policy [1] Economic Objectives - The PBOC aims to maintain price levels at a reasonable level [1]

Report Overview - Report Date: August 15, 2025 [1] - Report Title: "Rebar: Demand Falls Short of Expectations, Weak and Volatile; Hot-Rolled Coil: Demand Falls Short of Expectations, Weak and Volatile" [2][3] - Analysts: Li Yafei, Jin Yuanyuan [3] 1. Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Both rebar and hot-rolled coil are experiencing demand that falls short of expectations and are in a state of weak and volatile trends. The trend strength for both rebar and hot-rolled coil is -1, indicating a bearish outlook [2][3][7]. 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: - RB2510 closed at 3,189 yuan/ton, down 59 yuan/ton (-1.82%), with a trading volume of 1,283,713 lots and an open interest of 1,636,544 lots (a decrease of 16,049 lots) [3]. - HC2510 closed at 3,432 yuan/ton, down 41 yuan/ton (-1.18%), with a trading volume of 551,741 lots and an open interest of 1,291,831 lots (a decrease of 62,005 lots) [3]. - **Spot Price Data**: - Rebar prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Beijing, and Guangzhou decreased by 20 - 40 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [3]. - Hot-rolled coil prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Tianjin, and Guangzhou decreased by 10 - 30 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [3]. - The price of Tangshan steel billet decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 3,060 yuan/ton [3]. - **Basis and Spread Data**: - The basis for RB2510 decreased by 7 yuan/ton to 131 yuan/ton, and the basis for HC2510 decreased by 1 yuan/ton to 18 yuan/ton [3]. - The spread between RB2510 and RB2601 decreased by 4 yuan/ton to -78 yuan/ton, while the spread between HC2510 and HC2601 increased by 2 yuan/ton to 6 yuan/ton [3]. - The spread between HC2510 and RB2510 increased by 14 yuan/ton to 243 yuan/ton, and the spread between HC2601 and RB2601 increased by 8 yuan/ton to 159 yuan/ton [3]. - The spot spread between hot-rolled coil and rebar increased by 21 yuan/ton to 30 yuan/ton [3]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Steel Output, Inventory, and Demand Data (August 14 Steel Union Weekly Data)**: - Rebar production decreased by 0.73 tons, hot-rolled coil production increased by 0.7 tons, and the total production of five major steel products increased by 2.42 tons [4]. - Rebar inventory increased by 30.51 tons, hot-rolled coil inventory increased by 0.84 tons, and the total inventory of five major steel products increased by 2.42 tons [4]. - Rebar apparent demand decreased by 20.85 tons, hot-rolled coil apparent demand increased by 8.54 tons, and the total apparent demand of five major steel products decreased by 14.72 tons [4]. - **Financial Data (July Financial Statistics Report)**: - At the end of July, the balance of broad money (M2) was 329.94 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.8% (compared to 8.3% at the end of June). The balance of narrow money (M1) was 111.06 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.6%. The balance of currency in circulation (M0) was 13.28 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.8%. In the first seven months, net cash injection was 465.1 billion yuan [6]. - In the first seven months, RMB loans increased by 12.87 trillion yuan. By sector, household loans increased by 680.7 billion yuan, corporate loans increased by 11.63 trillion yuan, and non-banking financial institution loans increased by 235.7 billion yuan [6]. - **Steel Enterprise Inventory Data (Late July)**: - The steel inventory of key steel enterprises was 14.78 million tons, a decrease of 880,000 tons (5.6%) from the previous ten-day period, an increase of 2.41 million tons (19.5%) from the beginning of the year, a decrease of 670,000 tons (4.3%) from the same ten-day period last month, a decrease of 1.27 million tons (7.9%) from the same ten-day period last year, and an increase of 290,000 tons (2.0%) from the same ten-day period the year before last [6]. - **Automobile Production and Sales Data (July)**: - In July, automobile production and sales were 2.591 million and 2.593 million vehicles respectively, a month-on-month decrease of 7.3% and 10.7% and a year-on-year increase of 13.3% and 14.7% [6]. - From January to July, automobile production and sales were 18.235 million and 18.269 million vehicles respectively, a year-on-year increase of 12.7% and 12% [6]. - **Steel Enterprise Production Data (Late July)**: - Key steel enterprises produced 21.8 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 1.982 million tons (a 7.4% decrease from the previous ten-day period); 20.41 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 1.856 million tons (a 4.5% decrease from the previous ten-day period); and 23 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 2.091 million tons (a 0.5% increase from the previous ten-day period) [6]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity for rebar and hot-rolled coil is -1, indicating a bearish outlook. The trend intensity ranges from -2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [7].

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China reported that as of July 2025, the total RMB loan balance reached 268.51 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.9% [1] - The total social financing scale stood at 431.26 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 9% [1] - The broad money supply (M2) was recorded at 329.94 trillion yuan, growing by 8.8% year-on-year, while the narrow money supply (M1) was 111.06 trillion yuan, up by 5.6% [1] Lending and Financial Structure - In the first seven months, RMB loans increased by 12.87 trillion yuan, with corporate loans accounting for a significant portion, totaling 11.63 trillion yuan [1] - Long-term loans for enterprises rose by 6.91 trillion yuan, making up nearly 60% of the new loans [1] - Loans in sectors such as technology, green finance, inclusive finance, elderly care, and digital economy showed growth rates exceeding the overall loan growth [1] Interest Rates and Monetary Policy - Loan interest rates remained at historical lows, with new corporate loan rates around 3.2% and new personal housing loan rates at approximately 3.1%, down by about 45 and 30 basis points year-on-year, respectively [2] - The difference in growth rates between M1 and M2 narrowed to 3.2%, indicating improved liquidity and efficiency in the financial system [2] Government Bonds and Fiscal Policy - Over 6.1 trillion yuan in new special bonds were issued in the past month, marking a record high for the year, which is expected to accelerate government bond issuance [3] - The proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy are anticipated to support economic recovery and reasonable growth in effective credit demand [3]