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美关税持续冲击 日本7月出口创四年多最大跌幅
Guo Ji Jin Rong Bao· 2025-08-20 16:10
Group 1 - Japan's exports fell by 2.6% year-on-year in July, marking the largest decline in over four years, primarily due to the impact of U.S. tariffs on automobiles, auto parts, and steel [1] - Despite the drop in export value, export volume increased by 1.2%, indicating that exporters are absorbing tariff costs by lowering prices [1] - Japan's trade deficit in July reached 117.5 billion yen, with imports decreasing by 7.5% to 9.48 trillion yen, driven by significant declines in crude oil, coal, and liquefied natural gas imports [1] Group 2 - Exports to the U.S. decreased by 10.1% in July, with automotive exports dropping significantly by 28.4% and auto parts by 17.4%, although the volume of car exports only fell by 3.2% [1] - The U.S. imposed a 25% tariff on Japanese imported cars and parts starting in April, and increased steel tariffs to 50% in June, affecting approximately one-third of Japan's total exports to the U.S. [1] - Toyota warned that U.S. tariffs could lead to a reduction in operating profit by 1.4 trillion yen [1] Group 3 - A trade agreement reached at the end of July is expected to reduce tariffs on cars and most goods to 15%, but implementation will take time [2] - Japan's economy showed unexpected resilience in the second quarter, which may support the Bank of Japan's decision to raise interest rates later this year, although the ongoing impact of U.S. tariffs will be a key consideration [2] - Analysts predict that the Bank of Japan will likely maintain its current policy stance in the upcoming September meeting, as the effects of tariffs on export volumes become more apparent [3]
美股周一收盘点评:美联储将会在杰克逊霍尔开会,市场平静期待
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-18 20:42
Core Viewpoint - Investors continue to expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points next month, although they have lowered expectations for further cuts this year [1] Economic Indicators - Recent data indicates that while U.S. tariffs have not yet impacted the overall Consumer Price Index, a weak labor market may prompt the Federal Reserve to adopt a more dovish stance [1] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has increased, and the dollar has appreciated [1] Federal Reserve Meeting - Market participants hope that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will provide clearer insights into the economic outlook and the Fed's policy framework during the meeting scheduled from August 21 to 23 in Jackson Hole, Wyoming [1] Trade Developments - The Trump administration has expanded the list of taxable goods to include hundreds of derivative products and increased tariffs on steel and aluminum imports to 50% [1] Renewable Energy Sector - The U.S. Treasury has announced new federal tax subsidy rules for solar and wind projects, leading to a rise in solar stocks [1] Bond Market - The yield on 30-year inflation-linked bonds in the UK has reached its highest level since 1998 [1]
美俄首脑会晤后,特朗普表态:中国购买俄罗斯石油,美国暂不报复
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-18 15:38
Core Viewpoint - The recent meeting between Trump and Putin in Alaska focused on the Ukraine situation and the implications of Chinese purchases of Russian oil, with Trump indicating that the U.S. is not planning immediate tariff retaliation against China for these purchases [1][4]. Background - Trump's "America First" policy, initiated after taking office, has utilized tariffs as a tool to pressure countries buying Russian oil, aiming to cut off funding for Russia's military actions in Ukraine [1][3]. - Since the onset of the Ukraine conflict, India's imports of Russian oil surged from less than 1% to over one-third of its total imports, primarily due to lower prices [1][3]. Tariff Actions - Trump imposed tariffs on countries buying Venezuelan oil as a trial for secondary sanctions, later escalating tariffs on Indian goods due to its significant Russian oil imports [3][4]. - The U.S. has threatened to impose additional tariffs on China, which is the largest buyer of Russian oil, but has not yet acted on this threat [3][4]. Market Reactions - Following Trump's comments about delaying tariffs on China, oil prices fell due to reduced supply concerns [4][7]. - Analysts warn that if India were to stop buying 1.7 million barrels per day of Russian oil, global oil prices could rise significantly [3][4]. Geopolitical Implications - The meeting highlighted the intertwining of geopolitical and trade issues, with Trump attempting to leverage tariffs to pressure Russia while facing potential backlash from allies like India [7][12]. - Both China and India have emphasized their energy security and the legality of their oil imports, indicating resistance to U.S. pressure [4][10]. Future Outlook - The potential for renewed tariffs remains contingent on the progress of the Ukraine situation, with Trump indicating that if no advancements are made, tariffs could be reconsidered [5][12]. - The ongoing dynamics suggest a complex interplay between energy markets and geopolitical strategies, with significant implications for global oil supply and pricing [7][12].
美国关税“迟迟未降”,欧日韩很焦虑
Hu Xiu· 2025-08-18 06:35
尽管英国、欧盟、日本和韩国在过去几个月里相继宣布与特朗普政府就关税问题达成协议,但这些国家 的企业仍在焦急等待美方兑现承诺。 实际上,美国对这些贸易国家承诺中的关键条款——尤其是针对汽车和钢铁等核心产业的关税减免—— 迟迟未能落地,25%的汽车关税令相关行业承受数十亿美元损失。 据媒体报道,日本首席贸易谈判代表赤泽亮正表示,该国一家汽车制造商因关税每小时损失高达1亿日 元;德国汽车工业协会近日也警告称,其成员因此产生的成本已达"数十亿"且仍在攀升;在韩国,即使 最终关税降至协议水平,但其主要车企现代和起亚今年仍可能面临高达50亿美元的额外成本。 对于这种延迟,华盛顿方面保持沉默,白宫、美国贸易代表办公室和商务部的发言人均未对此有所回 应。 焦急的盟友们只能在猜测中等待,不确定这究竟是行政流程的拖沓,还是预示着更复杂的谈判困境。有 分析指出,行政延迟可能引发贸易伙伴采取报复措施的压力,特别是来自德国、意大利、法国等国汽车 制造商的施压。 然而,目前只有前者得以实施,对日本汽车征收的25%高额关税依然有效。 赤泽亮正在上周五表示,在当前的关税水平下,一家日本汽车制造商将每小时损失1亿日元: "我们正在持续看到损害 ...
国泰君安期货:所长早读-20250818
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-18 03:24
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - 7 - month macro - data showed a weakening pattern in both supply and demand, affected by multiple factors such as demand front - loading from stable growth, policy shift to structural adjustment, downward Kitchin cycle, and weather. Although the current situation doesn't impact the full - year macro - expectation due to the 5.3% H1 real GDP growth, a lack of policy support in stable growth, especially in the real estate sector, may lead to a pessimistic economic outlook [8]. - PTA demand has improved month - on - month, shifting to a sideways market. Pay attention to the impact of the peak season on the industrial chain. Non - mainstream warehouse receipts still suppress near - month contracts, and the 9 - 1 spread is unlikely to strengthen significantly. Polyester's operating rate has been revised up, and the supply side has remained stable recently [9][10]. - PVC is in a weak trend. The newly announced anti - dumping duties in India will affect China's PVC export competitiveness, and the domestic market has high production, high inventory, and weak downstream demand. It is advisable to take a bearish stance and consider the opportunity of going long on caustic soda and short on PVC [11]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Metals - **Gold and Silver**: PPI exceeding expectations has dampened the expectation of interest - rate cuts, causing silver to decline slightly. Gold's trend strength is - 1, and silver's is also - 1 [14][18][20]. - **Copper**: Lacking driving forces, the price fluctuation range has narrowed. The trend strength is 0 [14][22][24]. - **Zinc**: Inventory accumulation has become more obvious. The trend strength is - 1 [14][25][27]. - **Lead**: The decrease in LME inventory has supported the price. The trend strength is 0 [14][28][29]. - **Tin**: It is in a range - bound oscillation. The trend strength is - 1 [14][31][34]. - **Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Aluminum continues to converge, alumina shows a small sideways increase, and cast aluminum alloy is gradually showing off - season pressure. The trend strengths of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy are all 0 [14][35][37]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel's fundamentals oscillate within a narrow range, and one should be vigilant against news - related risks. Stainless steel prices oscillate due to the game between macro - expectations and reality. The trend strengths of nickel and stainless steel are both 0 [14][38][42]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: Supply - side disturbances occur repeatedly, and it shows a relatively strong oscillation. The trend strength is 1 [14][43][45]. Industrial Products - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon has strong market sentiment, with amplified price fluctuations. Polysilicon has more news - related disturbances this week. The trend strengths of industrial silicon and polysilicon are both 1 [14][46][49]. - **Iron Ore**: The macro - risk appetite has not significantly declined, providing support. The trend strength is 1 [14][51][52]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Both are in a wide - range oscillation. The trend strengths of rebar and hot - rolled coil are both 0 [14][54][58]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silico - Manganese**: The sector sentiment is weak, and they oscillate weakly. The trend strengths of silicon ferrosilicon and manganese silico - manganese are both 0 [14][59][62]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: They are in a relatively strong oscillation. The trend strengths of coke and coking coal are both 0 [14][64][66]. Others - **PTA**: Demand has improved month - on - month, shifting to a sideways market. Pay attention to the peak - season impact on the industrial chain. Non - mainstream warehouse receipts suppress near - month contracts, and the 9 - 1 spread is unlikely to strengthen significantly [9][10]. - **PVC**: It is in a weak trend. The Indian anti - dumping duties affect export competitiveness, and the domestic market has high production, high inventory, and weak downstream demand [11]. - **Log**: It oscillates repeatedly [67].
协议宣布了,但美国关税“迟迟未降”,欧日韩很焦虑
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-08-18 00:36
尽管英国、欧盟、日本和韩国在过去几个月里相继宣布与特朗普政府就关税问题达成协议,但这些国家 的企业仍在焦急等待美方兑现承诺。 实际上,美国对这些贸易国家承诺中的关键条款——尤其是针对汽车和钢铁等核心产业的关税减免—— 迟迟未能落地,25%的汽车关税令相关行业承受数十亿美元损失。 据媒体报道,日本首席贸易谈判代表赤泽亮正表示,该国一家汽车制造商因关税每小时损失高达1亿日 元;德国汽车工业协会近日也警告称,其成员因此产生的成本已达"数十亿"且仍在攀升;在韩国,即使 最终关税降至协议水平,但其主要车企现代和起亚今年仍可能面临高达50亿美元的额外成本。 对于这种延迟,华盛顿方面保持沉默,白宫、美国贸易代表办公室和商务部的发言人均未对此有所回 应。 焦急的盟友们只能在猜测中等待,不确定这究竟是行政流程的拖沓,还是预示着更复杂的谈判困境。有 分析指出,行政延迟可能引发贸易伙伴采取报复措施的压力,特别是来自德国、意大利、法国等国汽车 制造商的施压。 日本汽车业承压,每小时损失1亿日元 日本是最早面临这种不确定性的国家之一。 据新华社,7月22日,日本与美国达成贸易协议。美国原定于8月1日对日本开征的"对等关税"税率将由 2 ...
突发,取消!关税,重大变数!
券商中国· 2025-08-17 08:14
Core Viewpoint - The trade negotiations between the United States and India face significant challenges, particularly due to the recent cancellation of the U.S. trade delegation's visit to India and the imposition of additional tariffs by the U.S. on Indian imports, which has raised the overall tariff rate to 50% [1][4][5]. Group 1: U.S.-India Trade Negotiations - The U.S. trade delegation's planned visit to India from August 25 to 29 has been canceled, casting doubt on the timeline for the next round of trade negotiations [4]. - The cancellation of the trade talks has overshadowed the previously agreed timeline to finalize the first part of the trade agreement by September to October [4]. - U.S. President Trump has imposed a 25% tariff on Indian imports, citing high tariffs and trade barriers set by India, as well as its cooperation with Russia [5][6]. Group 2: India's Response - Indian Prime Minister Modi has stated that India will not compromise on its national interests in the face of U.S. tariff pressures, emphasizing the protection of farmers and laborers [2][8]. - Modi's speech on Independence Day highlighted India's commitment to self-reliance and the promotion of domestic manufacturing, including the production of fertilizers and electric vehicle batteries [8][9]. - The Indian government is actively seeking to support small farmers and has identified 100 agricultural regions that require additional assistance [8]. Group 3: Impact on Industries - The increase in tariffs has led to significant disruptions in Indian exports, particularly in the pharmaceutical sector, which is one of the top three industries exporting to the U.S. [9]. - The Indian steel industry has reported severe impacts due to canceled orders from the U.S., leading to production slowdowns and financial difficulties for exporters [9]. - Indian exporters are facing challenges in securing raw materials and managing logistics due to the heightened tariffs, with many companies seeking government assistance [9]. Group 4: Future Developments - There are reports that Modi may attend the UN General Assembly in New York at the end of September, where he could meet with President Trump to discuss trade and tariff issues [10].
中美摩擦让日本买中国蔬菜变便宜
日经中文网· 2025-08-17 00:34
Core Viewpoint - The decline in prices of Chinese vegetables in Japan is primarily due to reduced exports to the U.S. caused by trade tensions, leading to surplus inventory in China, which benefits Japanese restaurants facing rising costs [1][5][7]. Group 1: Price Trends - In late July, wholesale prices of Chinese vegetables in Tokyo's central wholesale market showed a year-on-year decline: onions down 8%, garlic down 9%, and scallions down 17% [1][5]. - The import price of garlic in Japan decreased by 18% and onions by 14% year-on-year as of June, with wholesale prices dropping by 10-20% [1][5]. - The purchasing price of Chinese onions in Japan fell from 1000 yen (approximately 48.43 yuan) per 10 kg to 750-800 yen, representing a decrease of about 20% [5]. Group 2: Impact on Japanese Restaurants - Japanese restaurants are benefiting from lower prices of Chinese vegetables, allowing them to maintain or reduce menu prices despite rising operational costs [1][3]. - A beef bowl restaurant in Shinjuku is using cheaper Chinese onions, enabling it to offer prices 10-20% lower than nearby competitors [3]. - A Chinese restaurant in Tokyo switched from using domestic garlic and scallions to Chinese products to avoid price increases, indicating a trend among restaurants to rely on cheaper imports [1][3]. Group 3: Supply Chain Dynamics - The decline in Chinese vegetable prices began around April, with a significant drop of 20-30% in purchasing prices noted by mid-April [3][5]. - The U.S. Department of Agriculture reported a 40% year-on-year decrease in the import value of Chinese vegetables, dropping to $14 million in May [5]. - The ongoing heavy rainfall in China may halt the increase in vegetable inventory, but Japanese restaurants are likely to continue relying on affordable Chinese produce [7].
美借俄石油贸易大幅提高对印关税之际,外媒:印度外长将访俄与拉夫罗夫会谈
Huan Qiu Wang· 2025-08-13 12:29
Group 1 - Indian Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar is scheduled to visit Russia on August 20-21 for talks with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, coinciding with the U.S. imposing a 25% tariff on Indian goods due to India's purchase of Russian oil [1][3] - The discussions between the two foreign ministers will focus on bilateral issues and international cooperation [1] - The U.S. has increased pressure on India regarding trade, with President Trump announcing a total tariff rate of 50% on Indian imports, citing the import of Russian oil as the reason [3] Group 2 - The Indian government has responded to the U.S. tariffs, labeling them as "unfair, unjust, and unreasonable," and has stated it will take necessary actions to protect national interests [3] - The Kremlin criticized the U.S. threats to increase tariffs on India, asserting that sovereign nations have the right to choose their trade partners and that forcing countries to sever trade ties with Russia is inappropriate [3]
有色商品日报-20250813
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-13 06:31
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper: Overnight copper fluctuated higher. US inflation pressure is controllable, strengthening the expectation of a 50 - basis - point interest rate cut in September. There are differences in views on the future of US copper. The domestic "Golden September" peak - season expectation and anti - involution policy expectations support prices, and copper maintains a relative balance between bulls and bears [1]. - Aluminum: Alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all fluctuated strongly. In August, the profit in the aluminum industry shifted from upstream to downstream. There are signs of a turn in the supply - demand of electrolytic aluminum, and the aluminum price is in a stage of trading time for space with an expectation of continued recovery. Aluminum alloy is in a tug - of - war between cost and demand, waiting for the peak - season guidance [1][2]. - Nickel: Overnight LME nickel and Shanghai nickel both rose. The overall fundamentals changed little and showed a volatile operation [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views - **Copper**: The US 7 - month CPI rose 2.7% year - on - year, core CPI reached 3.1%. The market has different views on US copper due to over - inventory. Domestic factors support prices, and copper is in a balanced state [1]. - **Aluminum**: AO2509 closed at 3287 yuan/ton with a 0.83% increase, AL2509 at 20800 yuan/ton with a 0.68% increase, and AD2511 at 20200 yuan/ton with a 0.55% increase. The SMM alumina price dropped to 3248 yuan/ton. There are changes in the supply - demand and profit distribution of the aluminum industry [1][2]. - **Nickel**: LME nickel rose 0.23% to 15360 dollars/ton, Shanghai nickel rose 0.2% to 122870 yuan/ton. LME inventory increased by 450 tons, and domestic SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 30 tons. The overall fundamentals are stable [2]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Aluminum**: The spot premium changed from - 50 yuan/ton to - 30 yuan/ton. The total inventory decreased by 3913 tons, and the alumina inventory increased by 3.9 tons [5]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel increased by 600 yuan/ton. The total nickel inventory increased by 444 tons, and the stainless - steel warehouse receipts decreased by 253 tons [5]. - **Zinc**: The main settlement price decreased by 0.1%, and the social inventory increased by 0.77 tons [6]. - **Tin**: The main settlement price increased by 0.9%, and the LME0 - 3 premium increased by 22.16 dollars/ton [6]. 3. Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin [8][10][13]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the historical trends of near - far month spreads for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin [16][20][21]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the historical trends of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin [23][25][27]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin [30][32][34]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts display the historical trends of social inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series stainless steel [36][38][40]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts present the historical trends of the copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit rate [43][45][47]. Group 4: Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng: The current director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with over a decade of commodity research experience [50]. - Wang Heng: An analyst focusing on aluminum and silicon, providing timely policy interpretations and writing in - depth reports [50]. - Zhu Xi: An analyst focusing on lithium and nickel, focusing on the integration of non - ferrous metals and new energy [51].