上周五，黄金（XAU/USD）在欧洲交易时段前延续了日内下跌走势，并在收盘前触及约每盎司4,030-4,029美元的日低。市场对美国联邦储备系统（Fed）12 月再次降息的预期下降，加上非农就业数据推迟发布，成为美元走强的主要推动力。美元自五月底以来持续上涨，对无收益的黄金形成明显压力。 在上行方面，若价格稳步突破4,100美元并获得确认，有望测试4,152-4,155美元区域，并可能靠近4,200美元整数关口。 不过，美国政府历时最长的停摆引发的经济增长放缓担忧，以及持续的国际地缘政治不确定性，为黄金提供了一定支撑。股票市场整体偏弱的走势，也显示 投资者对风险资产的信心有所减弱，从而增加了对黄金等避险资产的关注。 近期市场关注点还包括美国制造业PMI、消费者信心指数修正以及美联储官员的讲话，这些数据和信息可能为美元和黄金提供新的动力。整体来看，金价短 期内仍受美元走势和全球风险情绪的双重影响，投资者对避险和波动的关注仍将持续。 美国最新发布的非农就业报告显示，9月份新增就业岗位119,000个，高于市场预期的50,000个。平均时薪同比增长保持在3.8%，略高于预期的3.7%。尽管失 业率从4.3%上升至4 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak at an event hosted by the National Association for Business Economics at 00:20 tonight [1] - The market is eagerly awaiting signals regarding the future pace of interest rate cuts from Powell's speech, as any dovish or hawkish statements could significantly alter global risk sentiment [1] - Anticipation of Powell's remarks may lead to substantial market volatility, highlighting the importance of monitoring related risks [1]

Core Viewpoint - The market is eagerly awaiting signals regarding the future interest rate cut pace from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's upcoming speech, as any dovish or hawkish statements could significantly alter global risk sentiment [1] Group 1 - Powell will deliver a speech at an event hosted by the National Association for Business Economics at 00:20 AM [1] - The market anticipates potential volatility in response to Powell's remarks, highlighting the importance of monitoring related risks [1]

Core Insights - Gold futures prices have been significantly supported by multiple factors including geopolitical risks, central bank gold purchases, ETF inflows, expectations of US interest rate cuts, and trade tariff concerns [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - On October 13, gold futures saw a substantial increase, with the Shanghai gold futures reaching a peak of 928.88 yuan per gram [1]. - The deterioration of global risk sentiment was noted, particularly following President Trump's threats of imposing a 100% tariff on Chinese exports and new export controls on key software starting November 1 [3]. Group 2: Geopolitical Context - In response to the tariff threats, China accused the US of double standards and indicated potential unspecified countermeasures, asserting that it is not afraid of a possible trade war [3]. - Despite the heightened rhetoric, Trump softened his stance over the weekend, stating that the US does not intend to harm China and that both economies wish to avoid losses [3]. Group 3: Economic Implications - The US government shutdown is expected to enter its third week, with Congress failing to reach an agreement on funding plans, contributing to market uncertainty [3]. - The Senate is scheduled to vote on funding plans, but there is little willingness for compromise from either party, with Trump blaming Democrats for the situation [3]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - The outlook for gold futures remains bullish, with support identified at 905 yuan per gram; traders are advised to wait for a pullback to key levels before considering bullish positions [4]. - The potential for gold prices to reach 935 to 950 yuan per gram is anticipated in the current upward trend [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the recent statements from U.S. President Trump regarding the potential for peace in the Ukraine conflict may weaken the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, leading to downward pressure on gold prices [2] - The current spot gold price is around $3317, reflecting a continuation of the downward trend from the previous day, influenced by a rising U.S. dollar index and positive developments in international talks [1] - The geopolitical situation creates a dual role for gold; while easing tensions may reduce its demand, any breakdown in negotiations or escalation in tariffs could reignite safe-haven buying, supporting gold prices [2] Group 2 - Technical analysis indicates that gold prices are expected to remain volatile, with short-term resistance at the $3345 level and key support levels identified below [3] - The market is advised to focus on the $3330 level for potential buying opportunities, while monitoring the resistance at $3345 and $3358-$3360 for breakout scenarios [3] - A significant drop below the support levels of $3315 or $3300 could lead to further testing of these lower boundaries before any potential rebound [3]

Market Overview - The A-share market has shown a strong upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching 3600 points for the first time this year, approaching last year's high [2] - The market is influenced by the "anti-involution" theme and investments in the Yajiang hydropower station, leading to significant gains in certain low-position industries [2] - The overall external environment is expected to remain stable as the third round of China-US negotiations approaches [2] Bond Market - The bond market experienced significant adjustments last week, driven by inflation expectations, tightening funds, and negative feedback from redemptions [1] - The central bank's large net injection of liquidity indicates a continued supportive stance on liquidity [1] - It is recommended to strategically allocate during adjustments and avoid chasing highs or selling lows [1] Sector Focus - There is a positive outlook for sectors such as technology, non-bank financials, military industry, and pharmaceuticals, while the "anti-involution" related sectors are facing high crowding and pressure [2] - The technology sector currently has low crowding and increased catalytic density, presenting potential opportunities [2] Commodity Insights - Oil demand is expected to remain weak in 2025, with continuous supply release putting downward pressure on oil prices [3] - Gold prices may benefit from economic policy uncertainties due to tariffs and doubts about the dollar's credibility, although short-term volatility is anticipated [3] Hong Kong Market - The Hong Kong stock market is seeing active inflows from southbound funds, with a sustained high risk appetite in a liquidity-rich environment [2]