美联储会议纪要：通胀上升和失业率上升的风险增加。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Barkin indicates that consumers have begun to expect rising inflation, which is affecting market sentiment; however, there is currently no evidence that this has led to a decrease in consumer spending [1] Group 1 - Consumers' expectations of rising inflation are influencing market sentiment [1] - There is no current evidence suggesting that inflation expectations have resulted in reduced consumer spending [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Israel has decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 4.5% for the 11th consecutive time, reflecting a cautious stance amid escalating military actions in Gaza and rising inflation [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Interest Rate Decision - The decision to keep the interest rate unchanged aligns with the expectations of all 12 analysts surveyed [1] - This marks the 11th consecutive meeting where the rate has been held steady [1] Inflation Context - The annual inflation rate has deviated further from the central bank's target range of 1%-3% [1] - April's inflation rate reached its highest level in eight months, increasing from 3.3% in March to 3.6% [1] - The rise in inflation has been attributed to a sales tax increase earlier in the year [1] Future Outlook - Bank of Israel Governor Amir Yaron indicated that if inflation slows and market risk premiums remain manageable, the central bank may consider lowering interest rates in the second half of the year [1]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is currently facing significant challenges as prices have fallen below $3,200 per ounce, but some analysts remain optimistic about its future potential in the complex economic environment [1][3]. Group 1: Market Conditions - Gold prices have recently dropped significantly, reaching a five-week low due to improved market sentiment following trade negotiations between major economies [3][4]. - The U.S. government's announcement to reduce tariffs on imports from Asian countries within 90 days has led to a shift in investor risk appetite, moving funds from safe-haven assets like gold to riskier assets [3][4]. Group 2: Analyst Insights - George Milling-Stanley, Chief Gold Strategist at State Street Global Advisors, maintains a bullish outlook on gold despite short-term price fluctuations, citing ongoing economic uncertainties and inflation risks [3][4]. - The dollar index has risen above 100, but its volatility indicates a lack of strong market confidence in the dollar, which could benefit gold prices [4]. Group 3: Economic Predictions - The Federal Reserve's cautious stance on monetary policy, with expectations of potential interest rate cuts later in the year, may create favorable conditions for gold as inflation rises and economic growth slows [4][5]. - There is growing concern among investors about a possible recession in the U.S., which reinforces the demand for gold as a protective asset against economic instability [5][6]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook - The unique protective attributes of gold, such as its role in hedging against high inflation and geopolitical uncertainties, are expected to continue attracting investors, providing solid support for its price [5][6]. - As uncertainties in the global economic and political landscape persist, gold is anticipated to regain upward momentum, showcasing its significant upside potential [6].

Core Insights - The warning from Federal Reserve official Barr highlights the potential economic slowdown and rising inflation due to supply chain disruptions related to tariffs [1][4][7] - Small businesses play a crucial role in the supply chain and overall economy, but they are particularly vulnerable to disruptions due to limited resources and access to credit [3][5][6] Supply Chain Disruption Risks - Supply chain disruptions can lead to raw material shortages, production delays, and increased costs, significantly impacting profitability, especially for small businesses [3][4] - Small businesses are more susceptible to these challenges due to their limited financial resources and reliance on a narrow supplier and customer network [5][6] Economic Growth and Inflation Pressures - Supply chain disruptions may result in a dual pressure of slowing economic growth and rising inflation, posing significant challenges to the U.S. economy [4][6] - Rising costs from supply chain issues could be passed on to consumers, increasing price levels and potentially leading to reduced production or layoffs [4][6] Importance and Vulnerability of Small Businesses - Small businesses are essential for providing specialized inputs that are not easily sourced elsewhere, making their stable operation vital for supply chain integrity [5][6] - The limited access to credit for small businesses further restricts their ability to navigate crises, increasing the risk of closures and further supply chain disruptions [6] Uncertainty in Trade Policy - The uncertainty surrounding trade policies increases operational costs and unpredictability for businesses, complicating long-term production and investment planning [7] - This uncertainty may lead to delayed investments and hiring, negatively affecting economic growth and stability [7]

美联储巴尔：供应链中断或导致通胀上升 金十数据5月16日讯，美联储巴尔表示，美国经济基础稳固，但他警告称，与关税相关的供应链中断可 能导致经济增长放缓和通胀上升。巴尔强调了小企业的重要性，以及它们在供应链和整体经济中的作 用。他表示，贸易政策给前景蒙上了阴影，增加了不确定性。对小企业来说，潜在的供应链中断"尤其 严重"，部分原因是它们获得信贷的机会较少。他补充道，小企业通常提供不易从其他地方获得的专业 投入，而企业倒闭可能会进一步扰乱供应链。 ...

美联储副主席Philip Jefferson表示，关税及相关不确定性可能在今年减缓经济增长并推高通胀，但货币 政策已做好在必要时作出应对的准备。Jefferson强调政府政策方面的不确定性上升，并表示目前尚不清 楚关税是否会对价格产生短期或更持久的影响。他下调了对今年经济增长的预期，但仍预计经济将继续 扩张。"如果目前已宣布的关税上调持续存在，它们可能会阻碍通胀放缓的进程，并至少在短期内推高 通胀，"Jefferson周三在纽约联储举办的一场会议上的预先准备讲话中表示。(新浪财经) ...

美联储理事：关税政策可能导致美经济增长放缓 智通财经5月10日电，据外媒9日报道，美联储理事迈克尔·巴尔表示，特朗普政府的关税政策可能会在 今年导致美国经济增长放缓和通胀上升。 (央视新闻) ...

Core Viewpoint - Kevin Warsh, a potential candidate for the next Federal Reserve Chair, stated that the Federal Reserve should take responsibility if it fails to prevent tariff-related price increases from causing persistent inflation [1] Group 1 - Warsh emphasized that if central banks claim that external price level changes affect inflation and lead to a series of inflation outcomes, they are acknowledging something that could harm their own interests [1]

智通财经5月9日电，美联储理事巴尔表示，围绕关税的不确定性增加了通胀上升和经济增长放缓的风 险。 ...