美联储主席鲍威尔：如果只是回顾过往数据，你会希望利率更接近中性（数据支持降息）；但我们预期 未来几个月内通胀将会显著上升。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Crude oil futures prices rose significantly on June 12 and 13, 2025, with the WTI July crude oil futures up 4.88% on the 12th, closing at $68.15 per barrel, and domestic crude oil futures hitting the daily limit on the 13th. Geopolitical tensions, supply - demand imbalances, and positive progress in Sino - US economic and trade negotiations contributed to the price increase. The subsequent rise in crude oil prices may push up inflation and increase downstream enterprise costs [3]. - For stock index futures, next week's market is expected to continue to fluctuate at a high level [6]. - Gold is still bullish, and it's only a matter of time to reach a new high. A low - buying strategy is more prudent [10][11]. - Iron ore is a strong variety in the black series, but it has been rising weakly recently and should be viewed as a volatile market [14][15]. - Glass should be viewed with a short - term volatile mindset, waiting for the effect of real - estate stimulus or major policy announcements [17][18]. - Urea prices are in a weak adjustment. When reaching the previous support area, short - position holders should be wary of a strong rebound from the long side [21]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil Futures - On June 12 and 13, 2025, crude oil futures prices rose significantly. Geopolitical tensions, such as the uncertainty of the US - Iran nuclear negotiation and threats of conflict, led to concerns about supply disruptions. From the supply - demand perspective, the peak travel season in the US and the peak power - consumption season in the Middle East increased demand, while the US commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 3.6 million barrels last week. Positive progress in Sino - US economic and trade negotiations also boosted prices. The price increase may push up inflation and increase downstream costs [3]. Stock Index Futures - After Israel attacked Iran, the three major A - share indexes opened lower and closed with a mid -阴线, with a slight rebound at the end. Next week, the market is expected to continue to fluctuate at a high level [6][7]. Gold - Due to Israel's surprise attack on Iran, geopolitical risks increased. The overseas gold market is approaching a new high, and Shanghai gold, although relatively weak, is also rising. Gold is still bullish, and reaching a new high is just a matter of time. A low - buying strategy is more prudent [10][11]. Iron Ore - At the end of the quarter, mines are still ramping up shipments, and iron - water production is seasonally weak, increasing the over - valuation risk of iron ore. However, the continuous decline in port inventory supports the market. It is a strong variety in the black series, but has been rising weakly recently and should be viewed as a volatile market [14][15]. Glass - There has been no significant cold - repair situation due to losses on the supply side, factory inventories are still high, and downstream deep - processing orders have weak restocking motivation. The market should be viewed with a short - term volatile mindset, waiting for the effect of real - estate stimulus or major policy announcements [17][18]. Urea - The domestic daily urea production is about 205,600 tons, with an operating rate of about 87.23%. Agricultural demand progress is slow, and downstream players are less involved. Urea prices are in a weak adjustment. When reaching the previous support area, short - position holders should be wary of a strong rebound from the long side [21].

Group 1 - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting is expected to have significant implications for market trends, particularly regarding interest rate decisions and the release of the dot plot, which indicates future rate expectations [1][5] - There is a strong belief that the Federal Reserve will not lower interest rates in the near term, with expectations leaning towards no rate cuts in July, which could be perceived as a slight negative for the market [3][5] - Analysts predict that inflation in the U.S. may rise in the coming months, potentially reaching 4% to 5%, which could delay any interest rate cuts until the end of the year [6][8] Group 2 - The relationship between the cryptocurrency market and the stock market is highlighted, indicating that a downturn in the stock market could negatively impact Bitcoin prices [8] - Significant selling activity has been observed from major Bitcoin holders, suggesting a lack of confidence in the current price levels and indicating that retail investors may be buying at high prices [8][19] - The current market conditions show a divergence in Bitcoin's price movements, with a notable increase in the spot premium index, indicating a complex trading environment [18][20] Group 3 - Ethereum is also experiencing market volatility, with a confirmed false breakout pattern, suggesting that traders should be cautious and wait for key price levels before entering positions [16][22] - The focus for Ethereum trading is on the lower boundary of the price range, with potential entry points identified around 2300-2380 [16][22] - Upcoming economic data, such as the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and inflation expectations, are crucial for understanding the broader economic landscape and potential impacts on the Federal Reserve's decisions [22]

Report Summary Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - On June 12, 2025, crude oil futures rose significantly, with the WTI July crude oil futures up 4.88% to $68.15 per barrel. The rise was due to geopolitical tensions, increased demand, and positive progress in Sino-US economic and trade negotiations. The price increase may push up inflation and raise downstream costs, and continuous attention should be paid to geopolitical situations, OPEC+ policies, and global economic trends [3]. - A-share market: After opening lower in the morning, the three major A-share indexes quickly rebounded and then fluctuated sideways, closing flat. With limited news except for the Sino-US economic and trade consultation mechanism meeting, the market is expected to continue to fluctuate at a high level [6][7]. - Gold: Currently in a volatile pattern that is difficult to change in the short term, but still bullish in the long term. It is advisable to buy on dips rather than chase the rise [10][11]. - Iron ore: There is a risk of overvaluation due to weak demand, but the continuous decline in port inventories supports the market. It is still a strong variety in the black series. Technically, the support below is effective, but it has been rising weakly recently, so it should be viewed as a volatile market [14][15]. - Glass: The supply side has not seen significant losses and cold repairs, factory inventories are still high, and downstream demand has not increased significantly. It is necessary to wait for the effects of real estate stimulus or major policy announcements. Technically, it declined slightly today, and a short - term volatile view is adopted [17][18]. - Urea: The domestic daily urea output is about 205,600 tons, with an operating rate of about 87.23%. Agricultural demand progress is slow, and the price continues to adjust weakly. When it reaches the previous support area, short - position profits are realized, and a strong rebound from the long side should be watched out for [21]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil Futures - On June 12, 2025, WTI 7 - month crude oil futures rose 4.88% to $68.15 per barrel [3]. - Reasons for the rise: geopolitical tensions (uncertainty in US - Iran nuclear negotiations), increased demand (US summer travel peak and Middle - East summer electricity - consumption peak), and positive progress in Sino - US economic and trade negotiations [3]. - Impact: may push up inflation and increase downstream costs, and continuous attention is needed on geopolitical situations, OPEC+ policies, and global economic trends [3]. A - share Market - The three major A - share indexes opened lower, rebounded quickly, and then fluctuated sideways, closing flat [7]. - With limited news except for the Sino - US economic and trade consultation mechanism meeting, the market is expected to continue high - level fluctuations [6]. Gold - Currently in a volatile pattern, difficult to change in the short term, but bullish in the long term [11]. - Operation strategy: buy on dips rather than chase the rise [10]. Iron Ore - There is a risk of overvaluation due to weak demand, but port inventory decline supports the market [14][15]. - Technically, the support below is effective, but the recent rise is weak, so it is a volatile market [14]. Glass - Supply side: no significant losses and cold repairs, high factory inventories [18]. - Demand side: downstream demand has not increased significantly, waiting for real estate stimulus or major policy announcements [17][18]. - Technically, it declined slightly today, and a short - term volatile view is adopted [17]. Urea - Supply: domestic daily output is about 205,600 tons, with an operating rate of about 87.23% [21]. - Demand: agricultural demand progress is slow, and downstream follow - up is limited, so the price continues to adjust weakly [21]. - Strategy: when it reaches the previous support area, short - position profits are realized, and a strong rebound from the long side should be watched out for [21].

美联储哈克：缓慢的通胀降温本身就足以证明美联储维持利率稳定是合理的。美联储可能同时面临通胀 上升和失业率上升的局面，这完全是可能的。在不确定性中，美联储必须等待观察下一步的政策措施 ...

Group 1 - U.S. corporate hiring activity has slowed to its lowest level in nearly two years, with job cuts observed in sectors such as business services, education, and healthcare, indicating a continued weakening in labor demand [1][2] - According to ADP Research, private sector employment increased by only 37,000 jobs last month, falling short of all economists' predictions in a survey, marking the second consecutive month of significant underperformance [1][2] - The current job market is under dual pressure: a noticeable slowdown in hiring speed and an extended time for unemployed individuals to find new jobs, with economists expecting more signs of cooling in the labor market in the coming months [2][3] Group 2 - Following the data release, stock index futures and U.S. Treasury yields fell, while President Trump reiterated calls for Federal Reserve Chairman Powell to lower interest rates in response to the current situation [3][4] - Despite the hiring slowdown, wage growth remains strong, with a 7% increase for job switchers and a 4.5% increase for retained employees, according to the ADP report, which covers over 25 million U.S. private sector employees [4] - The upcoming U.S. government employment report for May is expected to show a slowdown in non-farm employment growth compared to the strong performance in April, while the unemployment rate is anticipated to remain stable [4]

英国央行货币政策委员丁格拉：我们目前的形势与2022年通胀上升时的情况不同。 ...

美联储洛根：关税带来的风险是导致失业率上升和通胀上升，使美联储两大目标发生冲突。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of England's MPC member, Taylor, indicates that the risks of a downward economic outlook are increasing, necessitating a shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy. Inflation is not driven by supply and demand pressures [1] Group 1 - Taylor highlights the need for a more lenient monetary policy due to the rising risks associated with the global economic situation [1] - The current inflationary pressures are not attributed to supply and demand dynamics, suggesting other underlying factors at play [1]

Group 1 - The court has halted Trump's tariff policy, adding uncertainty to global trade negotiations [1] - The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes indicate increased risks of rising unemployment and inflation [1] - The Bank of Korea's governor revealed that Asian countries are in foreign exchange negotiations with the U.S. [1] Group 2 - The Hang Seng Index shows a bullish sentiment of 79% and bearish sentiment of 21% [3] - The S&P 500 Index has a bullish sentiment of 70% and bearish sentiment of 30% [3] - The Nasdaq Index reflects a bullish sentiment of 74% and bearish sentiment of 26% [3] - The Dow Jones Index has a bullish sentiment of 31% and bearish sentiment of 69% [3] - The Nikkei 225 Index shows a bullish sentiment of 54% and bearish sentiment of 46% [3] - The DAX 40 Index has a bullish sentiment of 33% and bearish sentiment of 67% [3] Group 3 - The Euro/USD pair has a bullish sentiment of 54% and bearish sentiment of 46% [3] - The Euro/GBP pair shows a bullish sentiment of 12% and bearish sentiment of 88% [3] - The Euro/JPY pair has a bullish sentiment of 71% and bearish sentiment of 29% [3] - The Euro/AUD pair reflects a bullish sentiment of 16% and bearish sentiment of 84% [3] - The GBP/USD pair shows a bullish sentiment of 25% and bearish sentiment of 75% [3] - The GBP/JPY pair has a bullish sentiment of 33% and bearish sentiment of 67% [3] - The USD/JPY pair reflects a bullish sentiment of 31% and bearish sentiment of 69% [3] - The USD/CAD pair shows a bullish sentiment of 44% and bearish sentiment of 56% [3] - The USD/CHF pair has a bullish sentiment of 87% and bearish sentiment of 13% [3] Group 4 - The AUD/USD pair shows a bullish sentiment of 75% and bearish sentiment of 25% [4] - The AUD/JPY pair has a bullish sentiment of 62% and bearish sentiment of 38% [4] - The CAD/JPY pair reflects a bullish sentiment of 72% and bearish sentiment of 28% [4] - The NZD/USD pair shows a bullish sentiment of 49% and bearish sentiment of 51% [4] - The NZD/JPY pair has a bullish sentiment of 71% and bearish sentiment of 29% [4] - The USD/CNH pair reflects a bullish sentiment of 85% and bearish sentiment of 15% [4]