Market Overview - The U.S. stock market experienced a significant drop on October 10, with the Dow Jones down 1.03%, S&P 500 down 1.53%, and Nasdaq down 2.24% [1][2] - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell by 4.28%, with major Chinese stocks like Kingsoft Cloud, NIO, Bilibili, Alibaba, and XPeng all declining by over 7% [3] Consumer Confidence - The preliminary consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan for October is reported at 55, the lowest since May, slightly above the forecast of 54.2 and down from the previous value of 55.1 [2] - Consumer sentiment regarding current personal financial situations and the business environment for the next year improved, but expectations for future personal finances and current purchasing conditions for durable goods declined [2] Inflation Expectations - Short-term inflation expectations decreased from 4.7% to 4.6%, while long-term inflation expectations remained stable at 3.7% [2] International Markets - European stock markets also saw declines, with the FTSE 100 down nearly 1%, and both the CAC 40 and MIB indices down over 1% [6] - The Hang Seng Index futures dropped nearly 4% [5] Commodity Prices - International oil prices fell sharply, with U.S. crude down over 3% and Brent crude down nearly 3% [7] - In contrast, international gold prices rebounded, with London gold and COMEX gold rising over 1% [7] Trade Relations - China announced countermeasures against U.S. restrictions on its maritime and shipbuilding industries, set to take effect on October 14, in response to U.S. unilateral actions perceived as discriminatory [6]

Core Viewpoint - The global gold market is experiencing unprecedented volatility, with gold futures prices recently surpassing $4000 per ounce, followed by a significant drop, raising concerns about potential overvaluation and future price corrections [1][3]. Group 1: Monetary Policy and Economic Indicators - The expectation of a reversal in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, with potential delays in interest rate cuts, is putting downward pressure on gold prices [3][4]. - Strong economic data in the U.S. has led to increased expectations for higher interest rates, which negatively impacts gold as a non-yielding asset [3][4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Speculative Positions - There is a crowded speculative long position in gold, with a significant number of investors betting on rising prices, which could lead to a sharp sell-off if prices fail to maintain upward momentum [6][7]. - The recent strength of the U.S. dollar, supported by the Fed's hawkish stance, is further pressuring gold prices as it is priced in dollars [6][7]. Group 3: Geopolitical Factors and Demand Trends - Geopolitical tensions, such as conflicts in the Middle East and the prolonged Russia-Ukraine war, have previously driven gold prices higher, but the market is now adjusting to these risks as they have not escalated into full-scale wars [8][9]. - Central bank gold purchases, particularly from emerging markets, have been a significant support for gold prices, but there are concerns about the sustainability of this trend [9][10]. Group 4: Financial Market Sentiment and Asset Allocation - A shift in investor sentiment towards riskier assets, such as equities, is leading to reduced demand for gold, which is traditionally viewed as a defensive investment [16][19]. - The rise of technology stocks and the overall bullish sentiment in the stock market are attracting capital away from gold [19]. Group 5: Price Volatility and Technical Indicators - The gold market is currently experiencing high volatility, with technical indicators suggesting a potential need for price corrections after reaching overbought levels [12][17]. - Key resistance levels have been tested multiple times without success, indicating a potential for further downward adjustments in gold prices [12][17]. Group 6: Short-term Outlook and Investment Strategies - In the short term, gold is likely to enter a period of wide-ranging adjustments, with potential price movements down to the $2200–$2350 per ounce range [21]. - For short-term traders, a "buy low, sell high" strategy is recommended, while long-term investors may find opportunities to accumulate positions during price corrections [24].

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market opened slightly higher but then experienced a sharp decline, with the Dow Jones down 0.94%, S&P 500 down 1.32%, and Nasdaq down 1.76% [1][2]. Sector Performance - Chip stocks led the decline, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropping over 4% in the morning session. AMD fell over 7%, Micron Technology dropped about 6%, and TSMC's U.S. shares fell about 4% [2]. - Among the tech giants, Tesla fell over 4%, Nvidia dropped over 3%, and Apple decreased by over 2% [2]. Chinese Stocks - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell by 3.8%, with several popular Chinese stocks declining significantly [2][3]. Commodity Prices - International oil prices continued to decline, with WTI crude oil dropping over 3% to $59.34 per barrel, marking the lowest level since early May. Brent crude oil also fell by 3% to $63.14 per barrel [5][6]. - Spot gold prices increased slightly, currently at $4010.44 per ounce, with a rise of 0.86% [6]. Consumer Confidence - The preliminary consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan for October is reported at 55, the lowest since May, with a previous value of 55.1. The index reflects mixed views on personal financial situations and future business conditions [6][7]. - Inflation expectations for the next year decreased from 4.7% to 4.6%, while long-term inflation expectations remained stable at 3.7% [7].

Market Overview - On October 10, U.S. stock markets experienced a significant drop, with the Dow Jones down 1.03%, S&P 500 down 1.53%, and Nasdaq down 2.24% [1] - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell sharply by 4.28%, with major Chinese stocks like Kingsoft Cloud down over 9%, NIO, Bilibili, Alibaba, and Xpeng down over 7%, and Baidu, Futu Holdings, and JD down over 6% [1] Consumer Confidence - The preliminary consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan for October is reported at 55, the lowest since May, compared to an estimate of 54.2 and a previous value of 55.1 [1] - Consumer sentiment regarding current personal financial situations and the business environment for the next year improved, but expectations for future personal finances and evaluations of current durable goods purchasing conditions declined, leading to a mixed outlook [1] - Inflation expectations for the next year decreased slightly from 4.7% to 4.6%, while long-term inflation expectations remained stable at 3.7% [1] International Market Reactions - The FTSE A50 index futures dropped over 3% [2] - The Hang Seng Index futures saw a decline of nearly 4% [3] - European stock markets also fell, with the UK FTSE 100 down nearly 1%, and both the French CAC40 and Italian MIB indices down over 1% [4] Commodity Prices - International oil prices fell significantly, with WTI crude oil down over 3% and Brent crude oil down nearly 3% [4] - In contrast, international gold prices rebounded, with London gold and COMEX gold rising over 1% [4]

Market Overview - On October 10, U.S. stock markets experienced a significant drop, with the Dow Jones down 1.03%, S&P 500 down 1.53%, and Nasdaq down 2.24% [1][2] - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell sharply by 4.28%, with major Chinese stocks like Kingsoft Cloud down over 9%, NIO, Bilibili, Alibaba, and Xpeng down over 7%, and Baidu, Futu Holdings, and JD down over 6% [2][3] Consumer Confidence and Inflation - The preliminary consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan for October is reported at 55, the lowest since May, slightly above the forecast of 54.2 and down from the previous value of 55.1 [2] - Current personal financial conditions and future business environment perceptions improved, but expectations for future personal finances and evaluations of current durable goods purchasing conditions declined, leading to a net neutral effect [2] - Short-term inflation expectations decreased from 4.7% to 4.6%, while long-term inflation expectations remained stable at 3.7% [3] International Markets - The FTSE A50 index futures dropped over 3%, and the Hang Seng Index futures fell nearly 4% [4][6] - European stock markets also declined, with the UK FTSE 100 down nearly 1%, and both the French CAC40 and Italian MIB indices down over 1% [8] Commodity Prices - International oil prices saw a significant decline, with WTI crude oil down over 3% and Brent crude oil down nearly 3% [9] - Conversely, international gold prices rebounded, with London gold and COMEX gold rising over 1% [9] Trade Relations - In response to U.S. restrictions on Chinese shipping and shipbuilding industries, China announced countermeasures, including special port fees for U.S.-flagged vessels, effective October 14 [7]

Market Overview - U.S. stock index futures are all up, with Dow futures rising by 0.11%, S&P 500 futures up by 0.08%, and Nasdaq futures increasing by 0.09% [1] - European indices show mixed performance, with Germany's DAX down by 0.25%, UK's FTSE 100 down by 0.01%, and France's CAC40 remaining unchanged [2][3] - WTI crude oil prices fell by 1.17% to $60.79 per barrel, while Brent crude oil dropped by 1.09% to $64.51 per barrel [3][4] Company News - Tesla's wholesale sales in China rebounded in September, increasing by 2.8% year-on-year to 90,812 vehicles, ending a two-month decline [8] - Google has been designated as the first company with "strategic market status" in the UK, leading to stricter scrutiny of its online search and advertising business by the Competition and Markets Authority [8] - Qualcomm is under investigation by China's market regulator for failing to legally report its acquisition of Autotalks, causing its stock to drop nearly 2% in pre-market trading [8] - Applied Digital reported a significant revenue increase of 84% year-on-year in Q1, driven by surging demand for data center services to support generative AI applications, with revenue reaching $64.2 million [10] - Stellantis announced a 13% year-on-year increase in global vehicle deliveries in Q3, attributed to new model launches and strong demand in North America, with deliveries in the region rising by 35% [11] Economic Data and Events - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September is expected to be released on October 15, with the Labor Statistics Bureau recalling employees to ensure timely publication [6] - Upcoming speeches from Federal Reserve officials may influence market sentiment and economic outlook [12]

Market Movements - US stock index futures are all up ahead of the market opening, with Dow futures rising by 0.11%, S&P 500 futures by 0.08%, and Nasdaq futures by 0.09% [1] - European indices show mixed results, with Germany's DAX down by 0.25%, UK's FTSE 100 down by 0.01%, and France's CAC40 remaining unchanged [2][3] - WTI crude oil has decreased by 1.17% to $60.79 per barrel, while Brent crude oil has fallen by 1.09% to $64.51 per barrel [3][4] Company News - Tesla's wholesale sales in China rebounded in September, increasing by 2.8% year-on-year to 90,812 vehicles, ending a two-month decline [8] - Google has been designated as the first company with "strategic market status" in the UK, leading to stricter scrutiny of its online search and advertising business by the Competition and Markets Authority [9] - Qualcomm is under investigation for failing to legally report its acquisition of Autotalks, causing its stock to drop nearly 2% in pre-market trading [9] - Applied Digital reported a significant revenue increase of 84% year-on-year in Q1, driven by surging demand for data center services to support generative AI applications [10] - Stellantis announced a 13% year-on-year increase in global vehicle deliveries in Q3, attributed to new model launches and strong demand in North America [11] Economic Insights - Nuveen Asset Management's CIO suggests that robust corporate earnings, particularly from large tech companies, will likely sustain the US stock market's upward trend into year-end [5] - A report from the Boston Fed indicates rising inflation expectations pose a greater risk to the Fed's ability to control prices, with consumer expectations for one-year inflation increasing [6] - The upcoming release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September is anticipated to occur on schedule, despite the federal government shutdown [6]

报告指出："20世纪70年代初以及疫情期间的通胀预期飙升，在很大程度上可由当时能源与食品价格的 急剧上涨，以及贯穿那些时期的普遍性通胀来解释。然而，我们的估算显示，20世纪70年代末的通胀预 期飙升与物价上涨的关联性并不紧密，2025年春季开始的这轮通胀预期上升同样如此。" 研究人员警告，这种无法用短期物价波动解释的预期上升，"可能表明，通胀预期像20世纪70年代末那 样'脱锚'的风险已显著上升"。不过，报告亦强调，"目前来看，这些风险仍处于可控范围"。（新华财 经） 波士顿联储发布研究报告指出，当前美国家庭通胀预期的急剧上升，对美联储实现2%通胀目标的能力 构成比以往更大的风险。与疫情期间不同，本轮通胀预期的抬升并非主要由食品和能源价格驱动，这一 特征显著增加了通胀预期持续高于政策目标的可能性。 该报告由波士顿联储研究人员Philippe Andrade与Michael Wicklein撰写，基于密歇根大学消费者调查数 据展开分析。研究发现，当前通胀预期的走势与20世纪70年代末的情形更为相似——彼时通胀率飙升， 但预期上升与实际物价变动的关联性较弱，最终促使美联储启动激进加息周期以重建信誉。 ...

导语 10日午间，COMEX黄金期货报3987.60美元，COMEX白银期货报47.40美元，均已较周四低位反弹。 价格屡创新高的金银9日经历戏剧性的盘中逆转。 刚刚过去的9日，以色列哈马斯之间的和谈进展令美元指数上涨0.72%，突破99高位，创两个多月新高。贵金属则 随即转跌，国际金价跌破4000美元，跌幅达1.7%；现货白银历史性地自1980年来首次涨破50美元关口，上探51美 元，但随后一度回落超5.6%。但期金和现货黄金盘中均曾扭转涨跌幅，反映市场依然看好贵金属长期结构性、周 期性牛市前景。 10日午间，COMEX黄金期货报3987.60美元，COMEX白银期货报47.40美元，均已较9日低位反弹。 "接下来，美国是否能够尽快结束联邦政府的停摆危机、关键经济数据能否及时发布，以及原油价格能否有效回 升，将成为市场方向选择的关键变量。"他称，"如果美国联邦政府停摆持续、地缘冲突升级，而油价又因供应过 剩和全球需求放缓持续承压，那么美元的信用锚将进一步削弱，黄金的上涨通道仍有望延续。但若通胀抬头，抑 或经济疲软得到更多数据的进一步验证，市场可能重新评估流动性与货币政策，黄金阶段性回调风险并不低。" 据Th ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年10月10日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 黄金 1、基本面：海外银刷新历史最高后回落，获利了结推动金价回落；美国三大股指小 幅收跌，欧洲三大股指涨跌不一；美债收益率集体上涨，10年期美债收益率涨1.55 个基点报4.136%；美元指数涨0.55%报99.40，离岸人民币对美元升值报7.1380； COMEX黄金期货跌1.95%报3991.10美元/盎司；中性 6、预期：今日关注美国10月消费者信心、9月政府预算、美联储委员密集讲话、欧 盟财长会议。海外银刷新历史最高后回落，风险偏好回落，金价冲高回落。沪金溢 价迅速扩大至-8元/克。避险情绪和宽松预期仍 ...