炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 洪灝：2026年正是逆命改运时，市场正处在35年大周期顶峰，各种曾被遗忘的资产开始疯涨，会诞生一 个伟大的泡沫 来源：投资作业本Pro 莲华资产合伙人、首席投资官洪灝在1月11日的演讲中，对2026年市场作出展望。 投资作业本课代表整理了要点如下： 1、一月份继续降息应该是大概率事件。如果美国的远期通胀预期无法得到控制，而美联储一意孤行降 息，那么必然导致贵金属继续飙升，因为美元的信用已经失效。 2、2011年至今，黄金走出非常标准的"杯柄形态"。从统计学角度考虑，最近几年，一旦任何资产价格 走势出现杯柄形态，那么它们上涨的概率是99%，接近100%。 杯子有多深，目标就有多高。黄金目前处于一个相对公允的估值区间，4500左右。 3、很多人说黄金创了历史新高，还高了两块钱。那又怎样？这不会改变你的命运。 其他以黄金定价的东西，才会改变你的命运。 4、白银实际上走出了一个60年巨型的杯柄形态。杯柄形态太漂亮了，工整得可以当作教科书典范。80 美元涨到头了吗？肯定没有到头。 7、．．．．．．（2026年）在流动性如此充沛的条件下，在三把火一 ...

"我们认为，最新进展至少在短期内给风险资产带来了新的重大挑战，在相关局势出现更明确的信号之 前，这种挑战将持续存在。"赵耀庭称。 他表示，最直接的投资影响可能是通胀预期上升，使得利率面临上行压力。利率走高，反过来可能压制 美国股票估值，尤其是那些对贴现率变化最敏感的行业和投资风格。美元也可能承压，黄金及其他被视 为避险资产的替代品或将受益。 上证报中国证券网讯（记者 汪友若）据新华社援引美国《纽约时报》11日报道，美国联邦检察官已对 美国联邦储备委员会主席鲍威尔展开刑事调查，调查涉及美联储办公大楼的翻修工程，以及鲍威尔是否 就该项目规模向国会作虚假陈述。 景顺亚太区全球市场策略师赵耀庭对此发表观点称，近几个月来， 美国政府对美联储公开施压不断升级。央行独立性是金融市场稳定的基石。任何对美联储自主权的潜在 削弱，哪怕只是削弱的"观感"，都可能动摇市场对货币政策乃至整个金融体系的信心。 "我们认为，最 新进展至少在短期内给风险资产带来了新的重大挑战，在相关局势出现更明确的信号之前，这种挑战将 持续存在。"赵耀庭称。 他表示，最直接的投资影响可能是通胀预期上升，使得利率面临上行压力。利 率走高，反过来可能压制美国股 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market continues its strong trend. The silver squeeze has spread to other precious and non - ferrous metals, with high short - term volatility. The supply shortage of platinum provides key support to its price, while the demand for palladium is weakening, turning the market from short of supply to surplus. In the short - term, the situation between the US and Venezuela may support platinum and palladium prices. In the long - run, the "platinum strong, palladium weak" trend may continue. [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Platinum's main contract closing price is 622.80 yuan/gram, up 27.70 yuan; palladium's is 505.10 yuan/gram, up 17.50 yuan. - Platinum's main contract open interest is 10387.00 lots, down 277.00 lots; palladium's is 3179.00 lots, up 90.00 lots. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of platinum spot (Pt9995) on the Shanghai Gold Exchange is 612.94 yuan/gram, up 20.12 yuan; the average spot price of Yangtze River palladium is 445.00 yuan/gram, up 16.00 yuan. - The basis of platinum's main contract is - 9.86 yuan/gram, down 7.58 yuan; that of palladium is - 60.10 yuan/gram, down 1.50 yuan. [2] 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - Platinum's CFTC non - commercial long positions are 9966.00 contracts, down 243.00 contracts; palladium's are 3003.00 contracts, down 342.00 contracts. - The estimated total supply of platinum in 2025 is 220.40 tons, down 0.80 tons; that of palladium is 293.00 tons, down 5.00 tons. - The estimated total demand for platinum in 2025 is 261.60 tons, up 25.60 tons; that of palladium is 287.00 tons, down 27.00 tons. [2] 3.4 Macro Data - The US dollar index is 98.74, up 0.14; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 1.88%, down 0.03%. - The VIX volatility index is 15.38, up 0.63. [2] 3.5 Industry News - The US Supreme Court didn't rule on Trump's tariffs on January 9, with the next announcement on January 14. The government is ready to re - impose tariffs if the ruling goes against. - The Fed's January 2026 rate - cut expectation is dashed. The US non - farm payrolls in December 2025 increased by 50,000, lower than expected. The unemployment rate in December dropped to 4.4%. - The preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in January is 54, a four - month high. The inflation expectation for the next year is 4.2%. - According to CME "FedWatch", the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in January is 4.4%, and 95.6% for unchanged rates. By March, the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 27.6%, 71.3% for unchanged rates, and 1.1% for a 50 - basis - point cut. [2] 3.6 Key Points to Follow - January 13, 21:30: US December unadjusted CPI year - on - year, PPI year - on - year, and core retail sales month - on - month. - January 15, 01:00: Atlanta Fed GDPNow economic growth rate. - January 15, 20:30: European Central Bank's monetary policy meeting minutes. [2]

Group 1 - The current upward trend in 10-year government bond yields is expected to reach around 1.9%, while 30-year government bond yields are approaching 2.35% due to factors such as increased risk appetite in equities, the stock-bond relationship, and inflation expectations from rising commodity prices [1] - Despite limited central bank liquidity injections, funding rates remain low, and the December PMI data shows a slight recovery, leading to a modest increase in inflation expectations. However, nominal economic growth expectations are not significantly high, indicating that the factors influencing bond yields are unlikely to lead to a sustained upward trend [1] - The 30-year local government and national bonds are considered to have allocation value, with the 30-10 year yield spread expected to remain slightly above 40 basis points, correlating the 2.35% yield of 30-year bonds with the aforementioned 10-year yield levels [1] Group 2 - As of January 9, 2026, the National Development Bank Bond ETF (159651) is experiencing a stalemate in trading, with the latest price at 106.83 yuan, and a cumulative increase of 1.07% over the past year [1] - The liquidity of the National Development Bank Bond ETF is active, with an intraday turnover of 22.08% and a transaction volume of 143 million yuan, while the average daily transaction volume over the past year is 284 million yuan [1] - The latest net outflow of funds from the National Development Bank Bond ETF is 8.3324 million yuan, with a total "absorption" of 138 million yuan over the past eight trading days [2] Group 3 - The management fee rate for the National Development Bank Bond ETF is 0.15%, and the custody fee rate is 0.05% [3] - As of January 9, 2026, the tracking error of the National Development Bank Bond ETF over the past two months is 0.009%, closely tracking the China Bond - 0-3 Year National Development Bank Bond Index [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical risks and positive factors jointly drive up the prices of crude oil and silver; the fundamentals of coking coal are expected to improve marginally, and there is still upward momentum in prices; the iron ore market is expected to fluctuate in the short term; the prices of rebar and glass are expected to fluctuate; the short - term supply - demand game of live pigs continues, and the futures price fluctuates within a range; the prices of asphalt and synthetic rubber have short - term support; the copper market is expected to maintain a high - level shock pattern; the methanol and plastic markets are expected to fluctuate slightly stronger; the long - term treasury bonds are expected to fluctuate in the medium term; the precious metals strengthen due to the resurgence of risk - aversion sentiment [2][4][5][7][8][9][10][11][12] Summary by Variety Crude Oil - As of January 9, the number of active drilling rigs in the US decreased by 3 from the previous week and 71 from the same period last year; the EIA predicts that the US crude oil daily output will drop from 13.6 million barrels in 2025 to about 13.5 million barrels in 2026; the deteriorating situation in Iran and geopolitical risks drive up the oil price, and it is recommended to go long at low levels in the short term [2] Silver - Trump cancels the second - wave military strike against Venezuela, and all US ships remain in place; he also plans to buy $200 billion in mortgage - backed securities. The superposition of risk - aversion and stimulus factors drives up the silver price, but excessive bullishness is not recommended [2] Coking Coal - The average national coke - making profit per ton is - 45 yuan/ton. The improvement of Mongolian coal imports and the upcoming Chinese New Year coal - mine holidays will relieve the supply pressure, and the demand is expected to improve, so the coking coal price has upward momentum [4] Iron Ore - The total inventory of imported iron ore in national steel mills is 89.8959 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 430,500 tons; the daily consumption is 2.8328 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 26,100 tons; the inventory - to - consumption ratio is 31.73 days, a week - on - week decrease of 0.14 days. The market is expected to fluctuate in the short term [4] Rebar - The blast - furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 79.31%, a week - on - week increase of 0.37 percentage points; the blast - furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate is 86.04%, a week - on - week increase of 0.78 percentage points; the steel - mill profitability rate is 37.66%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.44 percentage points; the daily average pig - iron output is 2.295 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 20,700 tons. The price is expected to fluctuate [5] Live Pigs - As of January 9, the average slaughter weight of live pigs is 123.32 kg, a decrease of 0.03 kg; the weekly slaughter operating rate is 35.37%, a decrease of 0.34%. The short - term supply - demand game continues, and the futures price fluctuates within a range [5] Palm Oil - The domestic palm - oil spot basis is stable. The MPOB report will be released today. There is a game between the "positive policy expectations from Indonesia" and the "high inventory in Malaysia". Short - term participation is recommended [6] Soybean Meal - The domestic soybean - meal spot price is stable with an upward trend. The willingness of oil mills and traders to support prices has increased, but the downstream's enthusiasm for chasing up prices is weak. The short - term 05 contract is expected to enter a shock - consolidation period, and short - term participation is recommended [6] Asphalt - In the first week of 2026, the comprehensive production - capacity utilization rate of domestic asphalt manufacturers is 25.4%, a week - on - week decrease of 2 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 1.6 percentage points. The price has short - term support [7] Synthetic Rubber - In December 2025, the domestic butadiene - rubber output is 1.436 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 135,000 tons; the weekly production - capacity utilization rate as of January 8 is 79.15%, a week - on - week increase of 2.35%; the weekly production - capacity utilization rate of butadiene as of January 9 is 71.31%, a week - on - week increase of 0.7%, and the butadiene port inventory is 41,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2,000 tons. The price mainly fluctuates with the cost [8] Copper - The US non - farm payrolls data in December 2025 is lower than expected, and the employment market is still weak. The copper price is expected to maintain a high - level shock pattern in the short term [9] Methanol - The methanol price in Taicang, Jiangsu is 2,242 yuan/ton, an increase of 22 yuan/ton; the weekly production - capacity utilization rate is 91.42%, a week - on - week increase of 1.01%; the methanol port inventory is 1.5372 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 40,800 tons. The price is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger in the short term [10] Plastic - The mainstream price of LLDPE in North China is 6,710 yuan/ton, a day - on - day increase of 10 yuan/ton; the weekly output is 301,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.45%; the production - enterprise inventory is 144,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.41%. The price is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger in the short term [10][11] Glass - The national average price of float glass is 1,093 yuan/ton, a day - on - day increase of 7 yuan/ton; the float - glass operating rate is 71.98%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.08 percentage points; the total inventory of sample float - glass enterprises is 55.551 million weight cases, a week - on - week decrease of 2.37%. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [11] Long - term Treasury Bonds - In December 2025, China's CPI increased by 0.8% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 1.2% year - on - year. The inflation situation is not enough to disturb the monetary policy, and the bonds are expected to fluctuate in the medium term [12] Gold - The Jordanian military conducts air strikes on ISIS targets in Syria, and the risk - aversion sentiment drives up the precious - metal price. Excessive bullishness on gold is not recommended [12]

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：华泰期货 作者： 师橙 镍：印尼政策反复，镍价剧烈波动 市场分析 价格方面：本周沪镍主力合约整体呈现波动剧烈，开于135000元/吨，最高冲至149600元/吨，后高位下 滑，震荡整理，最终收于139090元/吨，周涨幅4.7%，振幅12.5%。现货市场方面，本周SMM1#电解镍 均价144，540元/吨，环比上周上涨4，350元/吨，金川镍升水本周均值为8，700元/吨，环比上周上涨 1，400元/吨，国内主流品牌电积镍升贴水区间为-200-300元/吨，当前下游对高价镍板接受度低，现货 市场投机性囤货现象较为明显。 宏观方面：本周美国公布的就业数据等显示经济仍具韧性，市场对美联储降息时点的预期有所推迟，推 动美元指数走强。国内宽松政策托底，中国人民银行工作会议明确2026年将继续实施适度宽松的货币政 策，流动性环境将保持充裕，旨在支持经济回暖，为国内商品市场提供了底层支撑。印尼方面，能矿部 并未对镍矿审批表露明确态度，引发市场对供给端收缩预期的降温，抑制了镍价的持续反弹。 供需：供应端，金川电解镍现货仍紧缺，部分下游使用住友替代，市场 ...

日度报告——综合晨报 美方对伊朗相关应对方案的商讨已启动 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2026-01-12 宏观策略（美国股指期货） 美国 12 月非农增 5 万人不及预期 非农就业不及预期但维持韧性，1 月大概率暂停降息，市场风险 偏好维持高位。 宏观策略（股指期货） 沪指站上 4100 点，续创 10 年新高 综 尽管近期存在监管层面为市场降温的意向，但股市气势如虹， 放量大涨一举站上 4100 点。短期内，市场仍存上冲动能。监管 层面是否会出台力度更大的降温动作，是重要风向标。 合 宏观策略（黄金） 晨 美方对伊朗相关应对方案的商讨已启动 报 周五金价震荡收涨，表现偏强，美国 12 月非农就业数据喜忧参 半，市场对美联储的降息预期变化不大。地缘政治风险利多贵 金属，但 Bloomberg 商品指数调整尚未结束。 农产品（白糖） 印度糖厂本年度签署约 18 万吨糖出口合同 印度本榨季已签约出口 18 万吨糖，因国内糖价回调和卢比疲软。 印度糖出口的关键时间窗口在巴西新榨季开启前的 1-3 月份，预 计该国糖实际总出口量难以达到官方额度。 有色金属（铜） 力拓与嘉能可合并后将主导全球铜供应 宏观乐观 ...

新年伊始，A股持续走强，债市则迎来连续调整，10年期国债收益率上行至1.90%附近。去年该收益率 两次触及1.90%后，均开启了一轮下行行情，此次是否会复刻过往走势，引发市场关注。 数据显示，2025年3月和9月，10年期国债收益率两度触及1.90%后，均开启下行行情。对此，有分析人 士预计，短期内10年期国债收益率继续大幅上行的动力有限，建议配置盘抓住年初"开门红"的窗口把握 加仓机会。不过，仍有相当一部分资金对后市保持谨慎态度。 百亿私募洛肯国际认为，30年期超长端国债利率在2025年下半年突破前高，单边上行了超过40个基点， 反映出市场对财政扩张、长债需求弱化、通胀预期的担忧。2026年宽松金融环境不会明显转向，虽然货 币政策仍有降准降息等总量宽松空间，但央行的力度和节奏受到稳定银行净息差、防风险等多目标制 约。 东方金诚研究发展部最新报告预计，2026年利率债净供给规模将达17.4万亿元，比2025年实际净融资额 高出约1.4万亿元。在需求方面，由于实体融资需求难有实质性改善，且贷款利率等广谱利率下行趋势 未变，预计2026年债券配置资金仍在。不过，由于机构扩表难度加大，负债端稳定性下降，叠加低利率 ...

目前，美联储已于2025年下半年累计降息75个基点，但美国30年期超长期国债利率仍维持在4.8%左右 的相对高位。该利率虽较2025年中期约5.1%的高点有所回落，但仍处于历史区间的较高水平。 股债"跷跷板效应"凸显 新年伊始，A股持续走强，债市则迎来连续调整，10年期国债收益率上行至1.90%附近。去年该收益率 两次触及1.90%后，均开启了一轮下行行情，此次是否会复刻过往走势，引发市场关注。 私募机构认为，当前债市对衰退叙事的认可度已明显下降。过去那种依托利率下行、拉长久期的"躺赢 式"配置模式正逐步失效，类固收产品则有望在投资组合中迎来增长机遇。 通胀预期增强 国内经济正在进一步转暖，加上股市不断刷新高点，资金风险偏好明显上升。国家统计局最新数据显 示，2025年12月CPI(居民消费价格指数)、PPI（工业生产者出厂价格指数）环比上涨均为0.2%，PPI已 经是连续第五个月告别环比负增长。 业内人士分析，伴随PPI释放复苏信号，通胀预期持续升温，再加上金属板块引领大宗商品行情走高， 债券市场对2023至2024年盛行的衰退叙事态度彻底反转。即便经济只是稍有回暖，债市便保持高度警 惕；即便后续经济数据再 ...

来源：市场资讯 （来源：吴说） 编译：GaryMa 吴说区块链 01 月 15 日美联储公布经济状况褐皮书（03:00）美国至 1 月 10 日当周初请失业金人数(万人)（21:30） 吴说本周宏观指标与分析：上周美国非农就业数据喜忧参半；本周重点关注美国 12 月 CPI、美国最高 法院推迟对特朗普关税案件的判决以及美联储经济状况褐皮书等。 上周回顾美国 12 月 ADP 就业人数 4.1 万人，预期 4.7 万人，前值-3.2 万人。美国至 1 月 3 日当周初请 失业金人数 20.8 万人，预期 21 万人，前值由 19.9 万人修正为 20 万人。美国 10 月贸易帐 -294 亿美 元，预期 -589 亿美元，前值由 -528 亿美元修正为 -481 亿美元。美国 12 月非农就业新增 5 万人，不及 预期的 7.3 万，亦低于下修后的 11 月 5.6 万；失业率降至 4.4%，低于预期 4.5%。同时，10 月与 11 月 就业数据合计被下修 7.6 万人。BLS 数据显示，2025 年全年月均新增就业仅 4.9 万，显著低于 2024 年 的 16.8 万。 密歇根大学消费者调查显示，2026 ...