Group 1: Macro Overview - U.S. Treasury yields are a core variable in the global asset pricing system, influencing asset valuations and capital flows[2] - Understanding U.S. Treasury yields is essential for grasping global asset price linkages and cyclical evolution[2] Group 2: Four-Factor Framework - The report constructs a "four-factor" framework to decode U.S. Treasury yields, comprising expected real interest rates, inflation expectations, inflation risk premium, and actual risk premium[3][5] - The expected 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is projected to fluctuate around 4.1% in 2026, with a likely "steepening" curve characterized by a slow decline in short-term rates and high volatility in long-term rates[3][11] Group 3: Key Insights on Yield Dynamics - The yield curve is expected to reflect a "twist steepening" if the new Fed Chair, Warsh, becomes more politicized, potentially leading to faster-than-expected rate cuts[3][11] - Conversely, if Warsh emphasizes Fed independence, rate cuts may be slower and shallower, impacting the yield curve differently[3][11] Group 4: Risk Factors - Key risks include fiscal and supply shocks that could elevate the term premium, as well as political and policy uncertainties that may disrupt market pricing[12] - The report emphasizes that managing curve shape and exposure to high term premiums is more critical than betting on specific interest rate levels in 2026[12]

东方金诚研究发展部高级副总监瞿瑞认为，这主要源于美国关税风波再起、贸易政策不确定性加剧，以 及美国与伊朗地缘政治风险升级带来的避险需求集中爆发，多重因素共同推动金价大幅上扬。 金鹏期货总经理喻猛国表示："美国最高法院裁定此前关税违法，本质上是政策与法律之间的冲突，直 接加剧了市场对美国财政状况及美元信用的担忧。避险情绪升温后，黄金、白银等贵金属往往走强。虽 然美国又推出了新关税，但其法律基础同样存在不确定性，政策反复只会进一步抬升不确定性。再加上 可能涉及上千亿美元关税退款，也会推升通胀预期，对黄金这类兼具抗通胀与避险属性的资产构成明显 利好，因此金银有望重新回到上升趋势。" 此次裁决还引发了规模可观的税收退款问题。宾夕法尼亚大学相关预测模型经济学家估算，超过1750亿 美元的关税收入面临退款风险。 美国一系列关税政策变动，引发全球市场高度关注。 美国海关与边境保护局（CBP）日前表示，将自美国东部时间2月24日起停止征收依据《国际紧急经济 权力法》（IEEPA）开征的关税。此前，2月20日，美国最高法院裁定，依据IEEPA加征的"对等关税"及 芬太尼关税违法。 但同样在2月20日，美国总统特朗普在最高法院裁 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the context of the US - Iran conflict affecting global risk appetite, the reversal of US tariff policies, the strong appreciation of the RMB exchange - rate driving foreign capital inflows, and the release wave of large models and the popularity of robots, stock indices are expected to show a strong performance [4]. - The unchanged LPR in February meets market expectations. Although there is potential inflation pressure on the bond market, the economic recovery momentum needs further observation. With a loose capital - market environment and strong bond - market allocation power, the bond market is expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend [6][7]. - Gold is likely to maintain a high - level oscillation due to factors such as the strength of the US dollar and market uncertainty. Future trends depend on US macro - economic data, Fed officials' speeches, and US tariff policies [9]. - For non - ferrous metals, different metals have different trends. For example, copper prices are expected to turn to oscillation, aluminum prices may rise slightly in the short - term, and nickel prices are expected to rise with a contraction in supply [12][14][19]. - In the black building materials sector, the black series is in a bottom - game stage with multiple factors at play, and it is likely to continue to oscillate weakly in the short - term [31]. - In the energy - chemical industry, different products have different strategies. For example, crude oil is recommended for mid - term layout, and methanol is suggested to be bought at low prices in the mid - term [57][60]. - In the agricultural products sector, the supply - demand situation of various products varies. For example, the pig market has an oversupply situation in the short - term, while the sugar market is not suitable for excessive short - selling due to potential production - ratio adjustments in Brazil in the future [80][90]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - financial Category Stock Indices - **Market Information**: The US imposed a 10% tariff on relevant goods, the central bank carried out a 600 billion yuan MLF operation, Musk proposed a satellite - launching plan, and a four - legged robot was released [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Stock indices are expected to perform strongly in the short - term [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: Bond contract prices had slight changes, relevant entities were added to the export - control list, the LPR remained stable, and the central bank had a large - scale net capital withdrawal [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The bond market is expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend [6][7]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Gold and silver prices had different trends, and the COMEX precious - metal inventory decreased [8][9]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Gold will maintain a high - level oscillation, and a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [9]. 3.2 Non - ferrous Metals Category Copper - **Market Information**: Copper prices rose, LME and domestic inventories changed, and the spot - futures basis and import losses also changed [11]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Copper prices are expected to turn to oscillation in the short - term [12]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices rebounded, and domestic and LME inventories changed [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Aluminum prices are expected to rise slightly in the short - term [14]. Zinc - **Market Information**: Zinc prices rose, and inventory and basis data changed [15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic zinc industry is weak, but zinc prices may follow the rise of copper and aluminum prices [16]. Lead - **Market Information**: Lead prices fell, and inventory and basis data changed [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The lead industry is in a weak state, but strategic stockpiling by battery enterprises may support prices in the short - term [18]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices rose, and the cost and price of related products were stable [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Nickel prices are expected to rise, and a long - position strategy at low prices is recommended [19]. Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices rebounded, and supply and demand had certain characteristics [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Tin prices are expected to oscillate widely, and a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [20]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: Lithium carbonate prices rose [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The fundamental situation of lithium carbonate may tighten after the Spring Festival, and attention should be paid to downstream restocking and production - recovery progress [21][22]. Alumina - **Market Information**: Alumina prices fell, and relevant data such as inventory and basis changed [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: A wait - and - see strategy is recommended in the short - term, and future price trends depend on ore - supply disturbances and supply - pressure relief [24]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: Stainless - steel prices rose, and inventory and production - related data changed [25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price has strong support at the bottom, and a long - position view is maintained [26]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: Cast - aluminum - alloy prices rose, and inventory and trading - volume data changed [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Prices are expected to stabilize in the short - term [29]. 3.3 Black Building Materials Category Steel - **Market Information**: Steel prices fell, and relevant data such as inventory and position changed [31]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The black series is in a bottom - game stage and is likely to oscillate weakly in the short - term [31]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: Iron - ore prices fell, and relevant data such as inventory and basis changed [32]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Iron - ore prices will mainly oscillate, and attention should be paid to domestic terminal - demand start - up and policy guidance [33]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: Coking - coal and coke prices fell, and relevant data such as inventory and basis changed [34]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In the short - term, the upward impetus for coking coal is not strong, and there is a risk of price correction. In 2026, coking coal may have a good upward trend from June to October [36][37]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: Glass prices rose slightly, and soda - ash prices also rose slightly, with corresponding inventory and position data changes [38][41]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Glass is expected to oscillate, and soda - ash is expected to oscillate weakly and steadily in the short - term [40][42]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: Manganese - silicon and ferrosilicon prices fell, and the technical form was in an oscillating state [43]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market may enter an oscillating and volatility - reducing cycle. The future market of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon depends on the black - market trend, cost - push factors, and supply - contraction expectations [44][45]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: Industrial - silicon prices rose slightly, and polysilicon prices fell. Relevant data such as inventory and basis changed [47][49]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Industrial - silicon prices are expected to be weak, and polysilicon prices are expected to oscillate weakly. Attention should be paid to production changes in upstream and downstream enterprises and demand feedback [48][50]. 3.4 Energy - Chemical Category Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices rose, and relevant data such as production - capacity utilization and inventory changed [52][53]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Short - term trading on the disk is recommended, and a hedging strategy of buying NR and selling RU2609 is suggested [55]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: Crude - oil and related product prices rose [56]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: A mid - term layout for crude oil is recommended, waiting for the end of geopolitical risks [57]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Methanol prices changed [59]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: A mid - term strategy of buying at low prices is recommended [60]. Urea - **Market Information**: Urea prices changed, and the basis data was provided [61]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: A short - position strategy is recommended [62]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: Pure - benzene and styrene prices rose, and relevant data such as production - capacity utilization, inventory, and profit changed [63]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Profits from non - integrated styrene production have been repaired, and a profit - taking strategy is recommended [64]. PVC - **Market Information**: PVC prices rose, and relevant data such as production - capacity utilization, inventory, and cost changed [65][66]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic PVC market has a situation of strong supply and weak demand. Short - term factors support prices, and attention should be paid to changes in production capacity and start - up [67]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: Ethylene - glycol prices rose, and relevant data such as production - capacity utilization, inventory, and profit changed [68]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: There is a need to increase production cuts to improve the supply - demand pattern. There is a risk of price rebound [69]. PTA - **Market Information**: PTA prices rose, and relevant data such as production - capacity utilization, inventory, and profit changed [70]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PTA inventory - accumulation cycle is about to end, and there is a mid - term opportunity to buy at low prices [71]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: p - Xylene prices rose, and relevant data such as production - capacity utilization, inventory, and profit changed [72]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: p - Xylene is expected to maintain an inventory - accumulation pattern in the short - term, and there are mid - term opportunities to buy at low prices following crude - oil trends [73]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: PE prices rose, and relevant data such as production - capacity utilization, inventory, and basis changed [74]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The downward space for PE valuation exists, and the supply - demand situation is in a seasonal off - peak period [75]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: PP prices rose, and relevant data such as production - capacity utilization, inventory, and basis changed [76]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - demand situation is weak, and there is a long - term opportunity to buy the PP5 - 9 spread at low prices [77]. 3.5 Agricultural Products Category Hogs - **Market Information**: Hog prices fell, and the supply - demand situation was unbalanced [79]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The spot market is expected to be weak, and attention should be paid to the support at the bottom in the medium - term [80]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Egg prices were stable with slight fluctuations, and the supply - demand situation was normal [81]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The spot price is expected to have limited decline, and a wait - and - see or short - term trading strategy is recommended [82]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: US soybean export data, Brazilian soybean harvest data, and domestic soybean and meal inventory data were provided [83]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Protein - meal prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term [85]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: Malaysian palm - oil production, export, and inventory data, as well as domestic and Indian oil inventory data were provided [86]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The oil price is currently weak, but a long - position strategy is recommended at low prices in the medium - term [87]. Sugar - **Market Information**: Sugar production data from Brazil, India, Thailand, and China, as well as import data were provided [88]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is not advisable to be overly bearish on the global sugar market. In the short - term, a wait - and - see strategy is recommended for the domestic market, and there may be a rebound after the end of the sugar - pressing season [90]. Cotton - **Market Information**: US cotton export data, domestic cotton inventory and production - capacity utilization data, and relevant policy information were provided [91]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: US cotton prices rebounded, and a long - position strategy at low prices is recommended for domestic cotton, with attention to downstream start - up [92].

每日晨报│2026 年 2 月 10 日 -主要市场指数表现 | | 收市价 | 上个交易日升 | YTD 升跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 恒生指数 | 27,027 | +1.76% | +5.45% | | 恒生科技指数 | 5,417 | +1.34% | -1.78% | | 国企指数 | 9,168 | +1.52% | +2.86% | | 沪深 300 | 4,719 | +1.63% | +1.92% | | 上证综合指数 | 4,123 | +1.41% | +3.89% | | 深证成份指数 | 14,208 | +2.17% | +5.05% | | 中小板指 | 8,594 | +1.74% | +4.01% | | 道琼斯指数 | 50,135 | +0.04% | +4.31% | | 标普 500 指数 | 6,964 | +0.47% | +1.74% | | 纳斯达克指数 | 23,238 | +0.90% | -0.01% | | 伦敦富时指数 | 10,386 | +0.16% | +4.58% | | CAC40 指数 | 8,323 ...

Group 1: Historical Wealth Migrations - The first historical migration occurred from 1998 to 2018, where deposits moved to real estate due to housing market reforms and rising property prices[3][14]. - The second migration from 2018 to 2023 saw wealth returning to deposits as the real estate market declined, with average annual new deposits reaching approximately 12 trillion yuan, significantly higher than the previous 4-5 trillion yuan[4][21]. - The third migration, starting in 2023, is characterized by a shift towards "deposits+" as low interest rates and inflation expectations reshape asset allocation strategies[5][28]. Group 2: Current Trends and Influencing Factors - Since 2023, new deposits have decreased to 16.7 trillion yuan, indicating a loosening of concentrated deposit allocations[28]. - The relative attractiveness of deposit yields has declined due to multiple rounds of interest rate cuts, prompting a shift towards "deposit-like" financial products[28][29]. - The recovery in bond and equity markets since 2024 has improved the relative returns of risk assets, making them more appealing compared to deposits[29][32]. Group 3: Implications of Inflation Expectations - Inflation expectations are a key variable influencing the direction and intensity of the current wealth migration, with low inflation leading to a preference for capital preservation products[11][32]. - The concept of "deposits+" emphasizes a wealth allocation philosophy that prioritizes stable returns while controlling for capital drawdown risks[33]. - If inflation expectations rise significantly, the flow of resident wealth may shift again, necessitating close monitoring of economic indicators[33].

业内人士表示，美伊地缘博弈、美国关税政策裁定等事件影响贵金属与原油价格走势，白银库存紧张等 基本面因素也为其上涨提供支撑。展望后市，受供应端不确定性、需求季节性波动及宏观环境扰动等影 响，大宗商品价格波动大概率加剧，贵金属与原油仍将是市场波动的核心品种，需重点关注相关风险。 贵金属板块表现亮眼 据正信期货统计，马年春节假期期间（北京时间2月13日15时至2月23日15时，下同），贵金属板块表现 亮眼。其中，COMEX白银期货累计涨超11%，涨幅位居全球主要大宗商品首位；COMEX黄金期货累 计涨超3%，延续此前的上涨趋势。 来源：中国证券报 马年春节假期期间，全球大宗商品市场走势分化，整体呈现贵金属领涨、能源板块强势的特征，其中纽 约商品交易所（COMEX）白银期货、黄金期货及布伦特原油期货、WTI原油期货涨幅显著，成为市场 关注的焦点，工业金属等其他品类则表现分化。 国际原油市场也在春节假期期间迎来强势反弹，布伦特原油期货与美国WTI原油期货双双大幅上涨。 据正信期货统计，春节假期期间，布伦特原油期货累计涨超5%；美国WTI原油期货累计涨幅超4%。 南华期货表示，短期国际原油市场定价的核心依然在中东地缘风险 ...

业内人士表示，美伊地缘博弈、美国关税政策裁定等事件影响贵金属与原油价格走势，白银库存紧张等 基本面因素也为其上涨提供支撑。展望后市，受供应端不确定性、需求季节性波动及宏观环境扰动等影 响，大宗商品价格波动大概率加剧，贵金属与原油仍将是市场波动的核心品种，需重点关注相关风险。 贵金属板块表现亮眼 据正信期货统计，马年春节假期期间（北京时间2月13日15时至2月23日15时，下同），贵金属板块表现 亮眼。其中，COMEX白银期货累计涨超11%，涨幅位居全球主要大宗商品首位；COMEX黄金期货累 计涨超3%，延续此前的上涨趋势。 ● 本报记者 马爽 马年春节假期期间，全球大宗商品市场走势分化，整体呈现贵金属领涨、能源板块强势的特征，其中纽 约商品交易所（COMEX）白银期货、黄金期货及布伦特原油期货、WTI原油期货涨幅显著，成为市场 关注的焦点，工业金属等其他品类则表现分化。 一德期货贵金属分析师张晨表示，春节假期期间，"美国最高法院裁定特朗普政府大规模关税政策违 法"的消息，成为影响贵金属价格走势的最重磅事件。一方面，若部分关税取消，美国通胀问题缓解的 概率将上升。通胀预期下行叠加市场风险偏好抬升，将推动名义利率 ...

巴西中央银行2月23日发布《焦点报告》，将2026年国内生产总值（GDP）增长预期由此前的1.8%小幅 上调至1.82%。报告同时公布后续年份增长预期：2027年维持在1.8%，2028年和2029年预期均为2%。 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。 来源：市场资讯 通胀预期方面，市场将2026年全国广义消费者价格指数（IPCA）预期从3.95%下调至3.91%，2027年通 胀预期维持3.8%，2028年和2029年均为3.5%。上述通胀预期水平均处于国家货币委员会设定的通胀目 标区间内，该区间以3%为目标值，上下浮动1.5个百分点。 利率层面，当前巴西基准利率仍维持在15%的高位。报告显示，市场预计该利率将在2026年底降至 12.13%，低于此前预测的12.25%；2027年和2028年预期分别为10.5%和10%，2029年有望进一步降至 9.5%。 汇率方面，市场预计美元对雷亚尔在2026年底报5.45雷亚尔，到2027年底升至5.50雷亚尔。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Central Bank of Brazil has slightly adjusted its GDP growth forecast for 2026 from 1.8% to 1.82%, while maintaining the growth forecast for 2027 at 1.8% and projecting 2% for both 2028 and 2029 [1] Economic Indicators - The inflation expectation for the nationwide broad consumer price index (IPCA) in 2026 has been revised down from 3.95% to 3.91%, with 2027's expectation remaining at 3.8%, and 3.5% for both 2028 and 2029 [1] - All inflation levels are within the target range set by the National Monetary Council, which has a target value of 3% with a fluctuation margin of 1.5 percentage points [1] Interest Rates - The market anticipates that Brazil's benchmark interest rate will decrease to 12.13% by the end of 2026, down from a previous forecast of 12.25%. The expected rates for 2027 and 2028 are 10.5% and 10%, respectively, with a potential drop to 9.5% by 2029 [1] Exchange Rates - The market expects the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Brazilian real to be 5.45 reais by the end of 2026, increasing to 5.50 reais by the end of 2027 [1]

策略研究 · 全球大类资产配置观察 海外市场有何异动？ ——全球大类资产配置观察 2026 年 2 月 22 日 核心观点 分析师 杨超 ：010-8092-7696 ：yangchao_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130522030004 孔玥 ：kongyue_yj @chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130525100001 相关研究 2025-11-22，变局蕴机遇，聚势盈未来——2026 年 A 股 市场投资展望 2025-11-06，A 股三季报业绩有哪些看点？2025-10-23， 划重点：二十届四中全会公报对 A 股投资的启示 2025-10-26，布局消费主题投资机遇— "十五五"规划展 望系列 2025-08-20，反内卷中寻投资机会—— "十五五"规划展 望系列 2025-08-06，七部门剑指新型工业化，金融活水锚定新 质生产力 2025-07-31，8 月投资组合报告：政策预期+业绩护航 2025-07-31，7 月决议偏鹰，9 月降息窗口还在吗？ 2025-07-30，7 月政治局会议对 A 股市场的投资指引 2025-07- ...