来源：滚动播报 1. 利率指引：鲍威尔为美联储9月降息敞开大门，他表示：基线前景和风险平衡的变化可能需要我们调 整政策立场。 2. 就业市场：劳动力市场仍接近充分就业水平。就业市场的平衡源于劳动力供需两端的 显著放缓，这种异常情况意味着就业下行风险正在上升。 3. 通胀前景：短期内通胀风险偏上行。基于 市场和调查的长期通胀预期指标似乎仍保持稳定。不会允许价格水平的一次性上涨演变为持续性通胀问 题。 4. 关税影响：关税对消费价格的影响现已清晰显现，预计未来几个月这种影响将持续累积，但具 体时机与幅度仍存在高度不确定性。关税的影响将相对短暂，属于价格水平的一次性变动。 5. 框架调 整：美联储采用新的政策框架，删除了关于追求"通胀在长期内平均达到2%"的表述，以及将就业决策 建立在"与最大就业水平的缺口"评估上的表述。 ...

当前经济形势与短期货币政策展望 一年前我站在这里时，美国经济正处于拐点。当时我们的政策利率已维持在5.25%-5.5%区间逾一年，这 种限制性政策立场对抑制通胀、推动总需求与总供给实现可持续平衡至关重要。彼时通胀已大幅接近目 标，劳动力市场也从此前的过热状态降温，通胀上行风险有所减弱。但失业率却上升了近1个百分点 ——从历史数据看，这种幅度的失业率上升通常只在衰退期间出现。在随后的三次联邦公开市场委员会 （FOMC）会议中，我们重新调整了政策立场，为过去一年劳动力市场在充分就业附近维持平衡奠定了 基础。 今年，经济面临新的挑战：对主要贸易伙伴加征的大幅关税正在重塑全球贸易体系；收紧的移民政策导 致劳动力增长突然放缓；长期来看，税收、支出与监管政策的调整也可能对经济增长与生产率产生重要 影响。这些政策最终会如何落地、对经济的长期影响将是什么，目前仍存在极大不确定性。 今年以来，美国经济在经济政策大幅调整的背景下展现出韧性。从美联储的双重使命目标（充分就业与 物价稳定）来看，劳动力市场仍接近充分就业水平，通胀虽仍略高于目标，但已较疫情后的峰值大幅回 落。与此同时，风险平衡似乎正在发生变化。 贸易与移民政策的变化正 ...

美联储主席鲍威尔将于北京时间周五晚10点在杰克逊霍尔年度经济研讨会上发表讲话。当前，美联储正 面临美国纵容特朗普前所未有的政治压力，但喜忧参半的经济数据可能迫使鲍威尔采取折中立场，导致 关键问题悬而未决。 在特朗普的施压下，投资者也对美联储下月降息充满期待。此前两位美联储理事已在最近一次政策会议 上推动降息，理由是劳动力市场疲软速度可能快于整体就业数据显示的情况。 然而，通胀率仍高于美联储2%的目标，且随着特朗普进口关税成本传导至零售价格，通胀预期可能进 一步上升。部分政策制定者认为，这种价格调整过程可能持续到明年，因此在此时降息需谨慎。 不过，波森认为降息可能是为就业市场提供"保险"，"部分原因是为了在政治上争取时间，因为如果不 降息，局势将更加紧张。但他们不会明说。" 特朗普的政治施压 随着特朗普的言行日益被视为对美联储独立性的威胁，鲍威尔和美联储所处的政治环境已成为降息叙事 中的重要组成部分——几乎任何决策都被解读为向特朗普妥协或无理对抗，而非基于事实的风险平衡。 特朗普对鲍威尔发起了猛烈的人身攻击，并要求其辞职。其政府内部有人以美联储大楼翻修成本超支为 由，鼓动"解雇"鲍威尔。但根据法律，美联储主席和 ...

【宏观与大宗商品市场动态】中国7月社零同比增速放缓至3.7%，汽车类零售总额同比转降。美国7月 零售销售环比增0.5%，实际零售销售连续十个月增长，但8月密歇根大学消费者信心意外回落，长短期 通胀预期攀升。 【铜】宏观上，美联储会议纪要显官员对通胀担忧，内容偏鹰派，关注周五鲍威尔 在"全球央行年会"表态。产业上，LME铜现货贴水走扩，进口窗口打开，进口铜增加，升水承压。下游 需求处淡季，开工率下滑。整体看，宏观情绪反复，供需双弱，铜价下行空间有限。 【铝】宏观同 铜，关注鲍威尔表态。产业端，铝价高位，国内消费复苏乏力，供应充足，电解铝现货有累库预期，施 压铝价。整体而言，宏观情绪反复，下游需求承压，库存累库，铝价或偏弱。 【锌】宏观多空交织，9 月美联储降息或支撑有色板块。基本面，7月锌锭产量超60万吨，8月产量持续恢复，预计环比增1万 吨。需求短期处淡季但有韧性。周一社库累增，库存正常施压锌价，Ime锌库存去化，挤仓隐患仍存。 追空需谨慎。 【镍】国内反内卷消息反复，宏观情绪降温，美联储纪要偏鹰，关注鲍威尔表态。印尼 镍矿升水暂稳，纯镍供应增加，社会库存累增，镍价随宏观震荡。基本面，全球镍库存高位，供应持 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The rebound of consumer - side inflation in the US reduces the expected number of Fed rate cuts. Although the EU intends to promote a peace agreement among the US, Russia, and Ukraine, continuous gold purchases by global central banks may limit the downside space of precious metal prices. It is recommended that investors wait for price dips to initiate long positions [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Market Data - **Shanghai Gold**: On August 21, 2025, the futures closing price was 775.12 yuan/gram, with a daily increase of 2.44 yuan and a weekly decrease of 0.68 yuan. The trading volume decreased by 31,854 compared to last week, and the open interest decreased by 14,440. The spot closing price was 771.66 yuan/gram, and the trading volume and open interest of spot Shanghai Gold T + D also changed. The spread between the near - month and far - month contracts was - 1.78, and the basis (spot - futures) was - 3.46 [1]. - **Shanghai Silver**: The futures closing price was 9162 yuan/kg, with a daily decrease of 42 yuan and a weekly decrease of 42 yuan. The trading volume decreased by 203,755 compared to last week, and the open interest decreased by 11,580. The spot closing price was 9144 yuan/kg, and the trading volume and open interest of spot Shanghai Silver T + D also changed. The spread between the near - month and far - month contracts was - 16, and the basis (spot - futures) was - 18 [1]. - **COMEX Gold**: The futures closing price was 3383.50 dollars/ounce, with a daily decrease of 8.70 dollars and a weekly decrease of 23.50 dollars. The trading volume decreased by 11,003 compared to last week, and the open interest decreased by 8,184. The London gold spot price was 3364.40 dollars/ounce, and the holdings of SPDR and iShare gold ETFs also changed [1]. - **COMEX Silver**: The futures closing price was 38.10 dollars/ounce, with a daily increase of 0.20 dollars and a weekly decrease of 0.45 dollars. The trading volume decreased by 6,909 compared to last week, and the open interest decreased by 18,281 [1]. - **Price Ratios**: The ratios of gold to silver prices in different markets (Shanghai, New York, London) all changed. For example, the ratio of Shanghai futures gold to Shanghai futures silver was 84.60, with a daily increase of 0.31 and a weekly decrease of 0.85 [1]. 3.2 Important Information - **US Monetary and Fiscal Policies**: The US Department of Justice pressured to remove Fed Governor Cook, and Trump urged her to resign. The US Treasury will issue over 1 trillion dollars of mainly short - term treasury bonds in the third quarter to replenish the cash account. The usage of the Fed's overnight reverse repurchase tool is approaching zero, which may gradually reduce the bank reserve scale. The import tariff pushed up commodity prices, causing the US July PPI and core CPI annual rates to rise. The Fed's expected number of rate cuts has been reduced to September/October [1]. - **US Economic Data**: The US August manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 58.3, unexpectedly reaching a three - year high. The inflation pressure increased, and the US labor market cooling was obvious. The number of initial jobless claims increased by 11,000, and the number of continued claims reached a four - year high [1]. - **Global Central Bank Policies**: The European Central Bank temporarily suspended rate cuts, keeping the deposit mechanism rate at 2.8%. The eurozone (Germany) July CPI annual rate was 2% (1.8%), higher than expected but the same as the previous value. The eurozone, Germany, and France August manufacturing PMIs were all higher than expected and the previous value, so the ECB may cut rates at most once before the end of 2025. The Bank of England cut the key rate by 25 basis points to 4.0% in August and may slow down the balance - sheet reduction after continuing to reduce 100 billion pounds of government bonds from October 2024 to September 2025. The Bank of England may cut rates at most once before the end of 2025. The Bank of Japan kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.5% in July and will start to reduce the quarterly treasury bond purchase scale from 400 billion yen to 200 billion yen in April 2026. There is still an expectation of a rate hike before the end of 2025, and the earliest may be in October [1]. 3.3 Trading Strategy - Due to the rebound of US consumer - side inflation reducing the Fed's expected rate - cut times and global central banks' continuous gold purchases, the downside space of precious metal prices is limited. It is recommended that investors wait for price drops to initiate long positions. Specific support and resistance levels are provided for London gold, Shanghai gold, London silver, and Shanghai silver [1].

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Core View - The Fed's rate cut expectations have cooled, and global electrolytic copper inventories are oscillating upwards. However, due to fiscal easing in many countries around the world leading to inflation expectations, Shanghai copper prices may remain volatile. It is recommended that investors wait and see, paying attention to the support levels and pressure levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [3] Summary by Relevant Content Market Data - For the Shanghai copper futures active contract on August 21, 2025, the closing price was 78,540, a decrease of 100 from the previous day; the trading volume was 43,058 lots, a decrease of 13,080 lots; the open interest was 128,034 lots, a decrease of 7,831 lots; and the inventory was 25,157 tons, a decrease of 66 tons [2] - The average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 78,800, an increase of 30 from the previous day; the Shanghai copper basis was 260, an increase of 130; the spot premium/discount in Guangzhou was 60, unchanged; the spot premium/discount in North China was -50, an increase of 10; and the spot premium/discount in East China was 50, a decrease of 15 [2] - The spread between the near - month and the first continuous contract of Shanghai copper was 30, an increase of 20; the spread between the first continuous and the second continuous contract was 20, unchanged; the spread between the second continuous and the first continuous contract was 10, an increase of 10 [2] - The closing price of the LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) was 9,724.5, an increase of 4 from the previous day; the total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 0, a decrease of 156,350 tons; the spread of the LME copper futures 0 - 3 month contract was - 81.01, an increase of 9.74; the spread of the LME copper futures 3 - 15 month contract was - 171.62, a decrease of 5.14; the ratio of Shanghai - London copper prices was 8.0765, a decrease of 0.01 [2] - The closing price of the COMEX copper futures active contract was 4.448, an increase of 0.02 from the previous day; the total inventory was 271,696 tons, an increase of 1,753 tons [2] Industry News - Indonesian copper concentrate exports have reached 65% of the approved quota as of mid - August, and are expected to account for 90% of the quota this year [2] - Due to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit in Tianjin from August 20 to September 3, freight vehicle controls have tightened market logistics, and the upcoming centralized maintenance period of upstream smelters has led to a tight supply of electrolytic copper spot in North China [2] - Codelco will lower its 2025 copper production guidance target. Due to the accident at the El Teniente copper mine, the refined copper production of this division is expected to decrease by 33,000 metric tons, and the copper sales profit will decline by $233 million. The economic loss caused by the production cut is $340 million [2] - Jianfa Shenghai plans to invest 12.15 billion yuan (Jianfa holds 51%), and the project is expected to be put into operation in May 2026, with an annual production of 600,000 tons of cathode copper and other products [2] - First Quantum has launched a $1.25 - billion expansion project at its Kansanshi copper mine in Zambia [2] Industry Operation - The daily processing fee for refined copper rods for power and enameled wire in East China has increased compared to last week. The operating rate of China's refined copper rod (recycled copper rod) production capacity has increased (decreased) compared to last week. The raw material (finished product) inventory of refined copper rod enterprises has decreased (decreased), and the raw material (finished product) inventory of recycled copper rod enterprises has increased (increased) [3] - The operating rate of China's copper wire and cable production capacity has decreased compared to last week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory of copper wire and cable enterprises has decreased (increased) [3] - The order volume (operating rate) of China's copper enameled wire has decreased (decreased) compared to last week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days of copper enameled wire enterprises have decreased (decreased) [3] - The operating rate (production volume) of China's copper plate and strip has decreased (decreased) compared to last week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days of copper plate and strip enterprises have decreased (remained flat) [3] - The operating rate of China's copper tube has decreased compared to last week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days of copper tube enterprises have increased (decreased) [3] - The operating rate of China's brass rod has increased compared to last week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days of brass rod enterprises have decreased (decreased) [3] Investment Strategy - Affected by the easing of Sino - US tariffs and the traditional off - season of consumption, the operating rate (production volume, import volume, export volume) of domestic copper product enterprises in August may decline (increase, decrease, decrease) month - on - month. Specifically, the operating rates of electrolytic copper rods, copper plate and strip, copper foil, and brass rods may increase month - on - month, while the operating rates of recycled copper rods, copper wire and cables, copper enameled wires, and copper tubes may decline month - on - month [3] - Domestic electrolytic copper traders have no pressure to sell and are reluctant to cut prices significantly, while downstream processing enterprises have weak demand and weak spot purchases [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Gold**: PMI and Fed officials' remarks dampened the September interest - rate cut expectation, causing gold prices to fluctuate. The Shanghai - gold premium continued to widen to 1.47 yuan/gram. Attention should be paid to Fed Chair Powell's speech at the central bank annual meeting, as the interest - rate cut expectation is volatile, leading to gold price fluctuations [4]. - **Silver**: The release of details of the US - EU trade agreement led to a rebound in silver prices after a decline. PMI and Fed officials' remarks dampened the September interest - rate cut expectation, but the impact on silver prices was limited. The Shanghai - silver premium remained at around 400 yuan/kg. As the market awaited the central bank annual meeting and risk appetite recovered, silver prices fluctuated [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review - **Gold**: US stocks were mixed, US bond yields rose (10 - year US bond yield up 2.92 basis points to 4.316%), the US dollar index rose 0.41% to 98.65, and the offshore RMB depreciated slightly against the US dollar. COMEX gold futures fell 0.15% to $3383.5 per ounce [4]. - **Silver**: US stocks were mixed, US bond yields rose, the US dollar index rose, and the offshore RMB depreciated slightly. COMEX silver futures rose 0.87% to $38.1 per ounce [6]. 3.2. Daily Tips - **Gold**: The basis was - 3.42 (spot at a discount to futures), inventory increased by 60 kg to 36642 kg, the 20 - day moving average was downward with the K - line below it, and the main net long position decreased [4][5]. - **Silver**: The basis was - 29 (spot at a discount to futures), Shanghai silver futures inventory decreased by 25144 kg to 1115055 kg, the 20 - day moving average was downward with the K - line below it, and the main net long position decreased [6]. 3.3. Today's Focus - 07:30 Japan's July CPI; 14:00 Germany's Q2 GDP final value; Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting (until August 23); 20:30 Canada's June retail sales; 21:00 Boston Fed President Susan M. Collins on Bloomberg TV; 22:00 Fed Chair Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting; 23:30 Cleveland Fed President Hammack on CNBC; Saturday: South Korean President Lee Jae - myung's visit to Japan and the ROK - Japan summit; Sunday 00:25 ECB President Lagarde and BOE Governor Bailey at a panel discussion [15]. 3.4. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The logical drivers include the global turmoil after Trump's inauguration, the shift from inflation to recession expectations, and the continued verification of the new US government's policies, making gold prices still likely to rise [10]. - **Silver**: Silver prices mainly follow gold prices. The impact of tariff concerns on silver prices is stronger, and there is a risk of an enlarged increase [13]. 3.5. Position Data - **Gold**: The long - position volume of the top 20 in Shanghai gold decreased by 1.43% to 609,750, the short - position volume decreased by 2.35% to 457,223, and the net position increased by 1.45% to 152,527 [31]. - **Silver**: The long - position volume of the top 20 in Shanghai silver decreased by 1.50% to 1,052,297, the short - position volume decreased by 1.44% to 959,065, and the net position decreased by 2.15% to 93,232 [33]. - **ETF**: Gold ETF holdings continued to decline, and silver ETF holdings decreased slightly but were higher than the same period in the past two years [36][39]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: Shanghai gold warehouse receipts increased slightly, COMEX gold warehouse receipts increased slightly and remained at a high level; Shanghai silver warehouse receipts decreased slightly and were higher than last year, while COMEX silver warehouse receipts increased slightly [40][41][43].

此外，美联储7月货币政策会议纪要还显示，与会者认为，如果加征关税对物价的影响长期持续，将危 及长期通胀预期的稳定性。 刘英分析说，这是美联储对美国关税政策长期影响做出的判断。 当地时间8月20日，美联储公布的联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)7月货币政策会议纪要显示，部分与会者 指出，美国对全球贸易对象加征关税的政策，将持续影响美国消费和服务价格。 与此同时，与会者指出，迄今为止的证据表明，外国出口商只支付了加征关税的"小部分成本"，美国国 内企业和消费者则承担了"主要成本"。 中国人民大学重阳金融研究院研究员刘英在接受总台环球资讯广播记者采访时分析认为，这是美联储对 当下美国关税政策影响的判断，而这一结论与特朗普在第一任期内发起关税战时，美国业界做出的评价 一致。 这次美联储的货币政策会议纪要对美国关税政策对价格的影响做出"逐步推升"的明确判断。在成本分摊 方面，其实在特朗普第一任期时，包括彼得森研究所也做出了非常明确的数据分析，结论就是九成以上 的关税成本都是由美国消费者承担的。美联储也认为这些高关税，无论是"对等关税"还是行业关税，都 会逐步由美国的消费者来承担，从而推升美国的通胀，所以它在降息方面采取了一 ...

市场回顾与分析 二级市场回顾 上周债市在偏弱的金融经济数据下仍有较大调整。主要影响因素包括：匿名利率上行、股债跷跷板、中 美谈判进度等。 流动性跟踪 跨月后资金面自然偏松，叠加央行公告买断式逆回购呵护债券新发，匿名隔夜资金利率一度下破 1.3%，进一步推动资金价格下行。最终R001和R007分别较前周下行1.3BP和下行3.3BP。 政策与基本面 7月经济金融数据显示，内需不足对下半年经济增长压力开始显现，实体融资需求低迷。高频数据来 看：生产端环比多数回升，消费端维持低位，食品价格下行但工业品价格回升。 海外市场 尽管美国7月CPI表现温和，但PPI超预期叠加8月密歇根大学消费者信心意外回落，长短期通胀预期攀 升，海外市场对通胀的担忧持续。10年期美债收盘在4.33%，较前周上行6BP。 一级市场回顾 上周一级市场国债、地方债和政策性金融债发行规模分别为3103亿、914亿和1540亿，净融资额为2146 亿、-137亿和1429亿。金融债（不含政金债）共计发行规模1117亿，净融资额-192亿。非金信用债共计 发行规模2514亿，净融资额-90亿。可转债新券发行1只，预计融资规模3亿元。 权益市场 本周市 ...

投资者正热切期待美联储在9月结束观望、启动降息，他们或许需要密切关注债券市场的动向。 随着市场预期美联储主席鲍威尔可能在周五怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔夏季经济研讨会上的年度讲话中为进一 步降息铺路，规模达28万亿美元的美国国债市场收益率曲线正不断陡峭化。 自美联储去年12月上次降息以来，对政策敏感的2年期美国国债收益率已从约4.4%大幅降至3.8%，反映 出市场对降息周期重启的信心日益增强。 但一个更令人担忧的信号是，在为家庭、企业和美国政府融资中起重要作用的基准10年期美国国债收益 率，与8个月前相比几乎没有变化，仍维持在4.3%左右。此外，一年前10年期收益率明显更低，为 3.8%，之后美联储实施了四年来的首次降息。 白宫一直在高调造势，暗示美联储今年本应早已降息。美国总统特朗普公开提及解雇鲍威尔的想法，并 频繁批评美国政府高昂的债务偿还成本。 然而，就在特朗普敦促鲍威尔降息，并要求企业"承担"其政府关税成本之际，美联储仍坚持观望降息的 态度，因不愿看到通胀卷土重来。 阿波罗全球管理公司（Apollo Global Management）首席经济学家托尔斯滕·斯洛科（Torsten Slok）表 示，投资者目前预 ...