交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年11月20日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 黄金 利多： 利空： 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 黄金 1、基本面：美国10月非农不发布，11月非农将在12月美联储会议下公布，金价冲高 回落；美国三大股指小幅收涨，欧洲三大股指收盘涨跌不一；美债收益率集体上 涨，10年期美债收益率涨2.52个基点报4.137%；美元指数涨0.53%报100.12，离岸人 民币对美元小幅贬值报7.1183；COMEX黄金期货涨0.29%报4078.30美元/盎司；中性 2、基差：黄金期货937，现货934.7，基差-2.3，现货贴水期货；中性 3、库存：黄金期货仓单90426千克，增加810千克；偏空 4 ...

【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不 对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担 全部责任。邮箱：news_center@staff.hexun.com 格隆汇11月20日｜日本央行审议委员小枝淳子：日本实际利率仍处于低位。日本央行在制定政策时，必 须同时关注其政策对短期和长期的影响，并兼顾经济活动、物价、金融市场和金融体系的发展情况。日 本央行应根据每个时点可用的数据和信息做出政策判断。日本央行应以可预测的方式稳步推进资产负债 表的正常化。金融状况仍具宽松性，将继续刺激消费和投资。日本央行应从资产负债两方面讨论资产负 债表的最佳规模和结构。食品价格飙升可能会影响通胀预期。过去几年，通胀预期一直呈稳固上升趋 势。关于物价风险，日本央行会考虑企业的工资和定价行为，以及汇率和进口价格的走势。综合截至10 月份成员们的最新预测来看，2025财年经济活动的风险处于平衡状态，而2026财年的风险则偏向下行。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report After a previous continuous rise, recent hot sectors have shown rapid rotation, with technology growth remaining the market's main theme. The policy support for the capital market remains unchanged, and the medium - to long - term strategy is mainly to go long on dips. In the bond market, the supply - demand pattern may improve in the fourth quarter, and it is expected to oscillate and recover. For various commodities, strategies vary based on their specific fundamentals and market conditions [4][8]. Summary by Category Macro - Financial Index Futures - **Market Information**: News includes diplomatic statements, potential mergers in the securities industry, changes in semiconductor intervention, and expected memory price increases. The basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH for different contract periods are provided [2][3]. - **Strategy View**: After the previous rise, hot sectors rotate rapidly, with technology growth as the main theme. The policy supports the capital market, and the medium - to long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: Wednesday's futures contract prices showed declines. There are upcoming treasury cash management deposit tenders, and the Japanese 10 - year bond yield reached a high. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations with a net injection [5]. - **Strategy View**: The 10 - month economic data is weak, and the social financing growth rate may remain weak at the end of the year. The bond market is expected to oscillate and recover, considering the supply - demand pattern, inflation expectations, and the stock - bond seesaw effect [8]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Prices of gold and silver in domestic and overseas markets rose. The US 10 - year bond yield and the US dollar index are given. Fed officials' statements and meeting minutes influenced market expectations [9]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to go long on silver on dips. The reference operating ranges for Shanghai gold and silver futures are provided [10]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: Copper prices rebounded. LME and domestic warehouse inventory changes, price differentials, and import losses are presented [12]. - **Strategy View**: Despite geopolitical headwinds, copper prices are supported by tight raw material supply and improved spot conditions. Reference operating ranges for Shanghai and LME copper are given [13]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices stabilized and rose. Changes in inventory, positions, and price differentials are provided [14]. - **Strategy View**: With relatively low overseas inventory and potential domestic inventory reduction, aluminum prices are expected to strengthen after oscillation. Reference operating ranges for Shanghai and LME aluminum are given [15]. Zinc - **Market Information**: Zinc prices showed changes. Inventory, positions, and price differentials at home and abroad are presented [16]. - **Strategy View**: Zinc ore is in short supply during the refinery's winter stockpiling. Zinc prices are expected to be weak in the short term [17]. Lead - **Market Information**: Lead prices changed slightly. Inventory, positions, and price differentials are provided [18]. - **Strategy View**: Lead raw materials are in short supply, and lead prices are expected to be weak in the short term [18]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices rebounded slightly. Spot prices, cost, and inventory changes are presented [19]. - **Strategy View**: Nickel prices are under pressure from fundamentals. Short - term decline space may be limited, and short - term trading strategies are recommended [19]. Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices rose. Supply is affected by mine shortages, and demand has long - term support from emerging sectors [20]. - **Strategy View**: Tin supply and demand are in a tight balance, and it is recommended to go long on dips. Reference operating ranges are given [21]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: Carbonate lithium prices rose. Futures contract prices and spot price changes are presented [22]. - **Strategy View**: The market is dominated by bulls. Attention should be paid to potential price fluctuations, and a reference operating range is given [22]. Alumina - **Market Information**: Alumina prices fell. Inventory, positions, and price differentials are provided [23]. - **Strategy View**: Overseas mine prices may decline, and alumina has a surplus. It is recommended to wait and see, and a reference operating range is given [25]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: Stainless steel prices fell. Spot prices, positions, and inventory changes are presented [26]. - **Strategy View**: The supply - demand imbalance persists, and prices are expected to continue to decline [27]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: Cast aluminum alloy prices stabilized. Inventory, positions, and price differentials are provided [28]. - **Strategy View**: The cost has support, and prices are expected to follow aluminum prices [29]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: Steel prices fell. Futures contract prices, positions, and spot price changes are presented [31]. - **Strategy View**: Steel demand is in the off - season. Prices are expected to be weak in the short term but may improve with policy implementation [32]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: Iron ore prices changed slightly. Futures contract prices, positions, and spot price changes are presented [33]. - **Strategy View**: Supply is increasing, and demand has a marginal increase. Prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [34]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: Glass and soda ash prices fell. Inventory, positions, and spot price changes are presented [35][37]. - **Strategy View**: Glass supply exceeds demand, and prices are expected to be weak. Soda ash prices are expected to oscillate at a low level [36][38]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices fell. Futures contract prices, positions, and spot price changes are presented [39]. - **Strategy View**: For the black sector, it may be more cost - effective to look for rebound opportunities. Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon have different fundamentals and trading suggestions [41][42]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: Industrial silicon prices rose, and polysilicon prices also changed. Futures contract prices, positions, and spot price changes are presented [43][45]. - **Strategy View**: Industrial silicon may have a "supply - demand double - weak" pattern. Polysilicon prices are expected to oscillate in a wide range [44][46]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices oscillated and rebounded. Supply and demand factors, inventory, and spot prices are presented [48][50][51]. - **Strategy View**: A short - term long - biased trading strategy is recommended, and a hedging suggestion is provided [52]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: Crude oil prices rose, and related refined oil prices changed. Inventory changes are presented [53]. - **Strategy View**: Oil prices are not recommended to be overly shorted in the short term. A wait - and - see strategy is suggested [54]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Methanol prices fell. Futures contract prices, positions, and spot price changes are presented [55]. - **Strategy View**: High port inventory and supply - demand imbalance put pressure on prices. A wait - and - see strategy is recommended [55]. Urea - **Market Information**: Urea prices changed slightly. Futures contract prices, positions, and spot price changes are presented [56]. - **Strategy View**: The market is sensitive to news. Urea prices are expected to oscillate and bottom out [57]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: Pure benzene and styrene prices changed. Cost, supply, demand, and inventory factors are presented [58]. - **Strategy View**: Benzene supply is under pressure, and styrene prices may stop falling [59]. PVC - **Market Information**: PVC prices fell. Futures contract prices, positions, and spot price changes are presented [60]. - **Strategy View**: Supply exceeds demand, and export expectations are weak. A short - selling strategy is recommended [61]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: Ethylene glycol prices fell. Futures contract prices, positions, and spot price changes are presented [62]. - **Strategy View**: Supply is high, and inventory is expected to accumulate. A short - selling strategy is recommended [63]. PTA - **Market Information**: PTA prices rose. Futures contract prices, positions, and spot price changes are presented [64]. - **Strategy View**: Supply may accumulate, and demand has limited improvement. Attention should be paid to potential upward trends [65]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: p - Xylene prices rose. Futures contract prices, positions, and spot price changes are presented [66]. - **Strategy View**: p - Xylene inventory may accumulate slightly in November. Attention should be paid to potential upward trends [68]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: PE prices changed. Futures contract prices, positions, and spot price changes are presented [69]. - **Strategy View**: PE prices are expected to oscillate at a low level [70]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: PP prices rose. Futures contract prices, positions, and spot price changes are presented [71]. - **Strategy View**: PP prices may be supported in the first quarter of next year [72]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Information**: Pig prices rose slightly. Supply and demand factors are presented [75]. - **Strategy View**: Supply is expected to be high before the Spring Festival. A short - selling strategy is recommended, and an anti - arbitrage strategy is preferred [76]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Egg prices were stable or fell. Supply and demand factors are presented [77]. - **Strategy View**: Egg prices are expected to oscillate in the short term and a short - selling strategy is recommended in the medium term [78]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: Soybean and rapeseed meal prices changed. Supply and demand factors are presented [79]. - **Strategy View**: Import costs have a bottom, and meal prices are expected to oscillate [82]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: Oil and fat prices changed. Supply and demand factors are presented [83]. - **Strategy View**: Palm oil prices are expected to oscillate, and a long - biased strategy can be considered if production declines [84]. Sugar - **Market Information**: Sugar prices fell. Supply and demand factors are presented [85]. - **Strategy View**: Sugar prices are expected to be weak, and a short - selling strategy is recommended [87]. Cotton - **Market Information**: Cotton prices rebounded slightly. Supply and demand factors are presented [88]. - **Strategy View**: Cotton prices are expected to oscillate in the short term due to weak demand and high supply [90].

特朗普对美联储的干预动向 Wmax通过持续跟踪观察到，特朗普正以多重举措试图影响美联储决策。他不仅对美联储主席提出公开批评并施压，更试图解雇美联储理事丽莎·库克，同时 推动其首席经济顾问斯蒂芬·米兰进入联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC），明确要求将利率降低3个百分点。 在Wmax的专业研判中，这一行为呈现出鲜明的两面性解读：支持者将其视为对美联储长期通胀目标失准、群体思维固化的必要改革，认为2024年大选前降 息更偏向民主党连任诉求；批评者则担忧这是典型的党派政治接管，意图复刻保守派主导最高法院的路径，在FOMC构建支持低利率的"超级多数派"。 基准偏向情景：若美联储受政治导向影响，更侧重维持低失业率而非锚定通胀目标，降息频次将较基准情景增加两次。市场会快速识别这一政策转向，导致 通胀预期锚定松动，物价涨幅逐步攀升至3%。 极端接管情景：若美联储完全屈服于政治压力，将政策利率降至1%并持续维持，即便通胀数据恶化也不调整，短期会呈现虚假繁荣。但通胀预期将显著走 高，当物价涨幅突破4%后，市场会将美联储独立性丧失定价为体制性转变，五年期借贷成本可能攀升3个百分点，重现1970年代末期的利率波动。2026年的 表面繁荣 ...

FICC日报 | 2025-11-19 避险情绪急剧发酵，风险资产集体承压 市场分析 国内经济基础仍待夯实。10月28日，"十五五"规划建议全文发布，公报提到，到2035年实现我国经济实力、科技 实力、国防实力、综合国力和国际影响力大幅跃升，人均国内生产总值达到中等发达国家水平。按人均GDP目标 推算，"十五五"期间的平均GDP增速或有望维持在5%左右，较强的提振了当下市场情绪和经济预期。10月30日， 中美经贸团队达成三方面成果共识，11月5日，中国正式落实暂缓关税。数据方面，10月全国制造业PMI录得49， 环比值下跌0.8；中国10月出口（以美元计价）同比下降1.1%，前值增8.3%，进出口数据受工作日天数减少以及节 前抢出口影响，前期的"抢出口"和"抢进口"有待消化，同时10月投资、消费和工业的增速也出现不同程度放缓，关 注后续经济情况。11月14日国务院常务会议，研究深入实施"两重"建设有关工作，部署增强消费品供需适配性进一 步促进消费政策措施，国内经济基础仍待夯实。11月18日，A股低开低走，创业板指跌超1%。AI应用方向逆势大 涨；商品多数下跌，焦煤跌3.86%，集运指数(欧线)跌2.88%，沪 ...

智通财经APP获悉，美联储的独立性根植于一项基本原则：其使命由美国国会而非总统设定，而如何实 现这一使命则由美联储自主掌控。但特朗普显然对此不以为然。 这位美国总统已将驯服美联储的意愿转化为近乎每日的例行攻势。他不再满足于仅仅敦促被他戏称 为"太迟先生"的美联储主席鲍威尔采取行动，还试图罢免美联储理事丽莎·库克，并将其首席经济顾问 之一斯蒂芬·米兰安插进联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)。 在其支持者看来，这早该是对美联储的彻底改革——这个机构不仅四年多来一直未能实现通胀目标，深 陷群体思维困境，更在大选前被质疑为了帮助民主党连任而非稳定经济而采取降息举措。 但在批评者眼中，这是一场赤裸裸的党派权力攫取，企图仿效最高法院保守派占绝对多数的模式，在 FOMC建立支持低利率的绝对主导权。对特朗普而言，只有将利率下调3个百分点才符合他的要求。 通过一项美国经济模型，分析人士模拟了政治干预美联储可能引发的两种情景。 在这两种情景下，短期内都会出现经济增长稳健、失业率走低的虚假繁荣。而通胀疲软、名义利率上升 和增长放缓的痛苦现实则会在一段时间后显现。在更极端的情景下，共和党人将在2028年大选前面临经 济滞胀衰退的困局。 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-11-19 终端消费疲软，猪价震荡运行 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2601合约11535元/吨，较前交易日变动-160.00元/吨，幅度-1.37%。现货方面，河南地区 外三元生猪价格11.60元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.00元/公斤，现货基差 LH01+65，较前交易日变动+160；江苏地 区外三元生猪价格 11.75元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.00元/公斤，现货基差LH01+215，较前交易日变动+160；四 川地区外三元生猪价格11.25元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.01元/公斤，现货基差LH01-285，较前交易日变动+170。 据农业农村部监测，11月18日"农产品批发价格200指数"为125.41，比昨天下降0.03个点，"菜篮子"产品批发价格指 数为127.51，比昨天下降0.02个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为17.89元/公斤，比昨天下降0.5%；牛肉66.90 元/公斤，比昨天上升0.5%；羊肉62.95元/公斤，比昨天上升1.0%；鸡蛋7.35元/公斤，与昨天持平；白条鸡17.57元/ 公斤，比昨天下降1.2%。 市场分析 ...

大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 黄金 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年11月19日 1、基本面："小非农"ADP周就业减少，金价止跌回升；美国三大股指全线收跌， 欧洲三大股指收盘全线下跌；美债收益率集体下跌，10年期美债收益率跌2.52个基 点报4.113%；美元指数涨0.06%报99.59，离岸人民币对美元小幅贬值报7.1108； COMEX黄金期货跌0.17%报4067.40美元/盎司；中性 6、预期：今日关注美联储会议纪要、欧英10月CPI、美国8月贸易帐，10月新屋开 工、营建许可。美股下挫，风险偏好继续降温，但随着小非农数据继续降低，金价 止跌回升。沪金溢价维持至0.8元/克震 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-11-18 消费跟进不足，猪价震荡调整 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2601合约11695元/吨，较前交易日变动-80.00元/吨，幅度-0.68%。现货方面，河南地区 外三元生猪价格11.60元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.11元/公斤，现货基差 LH01-95，较前交易日变动-250；江苏地区 外三元生猪价格 11.75元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.12元/公斤，现货基差LH01+55，较前交易日变动-150；四川地 区外三元生猪价格11.24元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.00元/公斤，现货基差LH01-455，较前交易日变动+80。 据农业农村部监测，11月17日"农产品批发价格200指数"为125.44，比上周五下降0.05个点，"菜篮子"产品批发价格 指数为127.53，比上周五下降0.05个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为17.98元/公斤，比上周五下降0.4%； 牛肉66.54元/公斤，比上周五下降0.1%；羊肉62.33元/公斤，比上周五下降1.0%；鸡蛋7.35元/公斤，比上周五下降 2.3%；白条鸡17.78元/公斤，比上周五下降0.1 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年11月18日 黄金 1、基本面：三大美股指齐创一个月新低，金价继续回落；美国三大股指全线收跌， 欧洲三大股指收盘全线下跌；美债收益率涨跌不一，10年期美债收益率跌0.78个基 点报4.137%；美元指数涨0.25%报99.54，离岸人民币对美元小幅贬值报7.1082； COMEX黄金期货跌1.20%报4045.10美元/盎司；中性 6、预期：今日关注美国10月工业产出、美国8月耐用品订单、美联储官员讲话日本 首相高市早苗将会见日本央行行长植田和男。美股下挫，风险偏好继续降温，金价 继续回落，但跌幅明显收敛。沪金溢价扩大至-1.5元/克震荡，金价回落溢价收敛， 国内情绪降温。美联储委员放鹰打击市场风险偏好，美国政府开门，等待数据验 证，金价继续高位震荡。 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员 ...