Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the transition to a smaller Federal Reserve balance sheet requires close coordination between the central bank and the Treasury to avoid excessive market volatility [1] - The normalization of the balance sheet is expected to be a multi-year process, with potential risk premiums demanded by investors during the transition [1][3] - The Federal Reserve's balance sheet peaked at approximately $8.9 trillion in June 2022, significantly expanded from $800 billion two decades ago, and is projected to decrease to $6.6 trillion by November 2025 [1] Group 2 - Barclays notes that the Federal Reserve could reduce its balance sheet by stopping the Reserve Management Purchases (RMP), but this may lead to renewed funding pressures [2] - To achieve meaningful balance sheet reduction, the demand for reserves by banks must be lowered, with current bank reserves at $2.94 trillion and a suggested reduction in the reserve ratio from 12% to 8-9% [2] - An alternative approach involves reinvesting maturing long-term government bonds and mortgage-backed securities into short-term government debt, which requires close coordination with the Treasury to avoid increasing long-term bond issuance costs [2] Group 3 - Both proposed outcomes are not ideal for the Treasury, and the Federal Reserve may ultimately need to lower policy rates to counteract the tightening market environment [3] - Significant balance sheet reduction is feasible, provided that the Federal Reserve and the Treasury have clear and aligned objectives to stabilize market expectations [3]

【巴克莱：美联储缩表将耗时多年，或需降息来抵消金融环境收紧】巴克莱策略师表示，美联储向更小 规模的资产负债表过渡，将需要央行与财政部之间进行密切协调，以防止市场波动过大。 他们写道，这一过程将导致金融环境收紧，而曾呼吁大幅削减规模达6.6万亿美元资产组合的美联储主 席提名人凯文·沃什，可能不得不通过更低的政策利率来对冲这种收紧。 巴克莱策略师Anshul Pradhan、Samuel Earl和Demi Hu写道："资产负债表正常化将是一个持续多年的过 程。"他们补充称："鉴于沃什希望缩表，以及美联储与财政部的目标并不总是同步，投资者很可能会在 这个转换过程中要求风险溢价。" ...

证券研究报告 宏观研究 [Table_ReportType] 专题报告 | ] [Table_A 解运亮 uthor宏观首席 分析师 | | --- | | 执业编号：S1500521040002 | | 联系电话：010-83326858 | | 邮 箱： xieyunliang@cindasc.com | 麦麟玥 宏观分析师 执业编号：S1500524070002 邮 箱： mailinyue@cindasc.com [Table_Title] 沃什的政策可能落地一半 [Table_ReportDate] 2026 年 2 月 6 日 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127 号 金隅大厦B 座 邮编：100031 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 [➢Table_Summary] 沃什的鹰派不宜解读成激进。今年年初以来，海外市场的重要变化是特朗 普提名沃什为美联储新主席。沃什反对大规模的资产负债表规模，被市场 贴上"鹰派缩表"的标签。但我们认为，沃什在缩表上并非激进派。首先， 沃什既是美国首 ...

Core Insights - The Bank of Japan's policy must consider both short-term and long-term impacts on economic activity, prices, financial markets, and the financial system [1] - The current financial conditions remain accommodative, which will continue to stimulate consumption and investment [1] - Inflation expectations have been steadily rising over the past few years, influenced by soaring food prices [1] Group 1 - The actual interest rates in Japan are still at low levels [1] - The Bank of Japan should make policy judgments based on available data and information at each point in time [1] - There is a need to discuss the optimal size and structure of the balance sheet from both asset and liability perspectives [1] Group 2 - As of October, the latest forecasts indicate that the risks to economic activity for the fiscal year 2025 are balanced, while the risks for fiscal year 2026 are skewed to the downside [1] - The Bank of Japan will consider corporate wage and pricing behavior, as well as exchange rates and import price trends, when assessing price risks [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve may soon consider expanding its securities holdings to maintain sufficient reserves in the banking system, indicating a shift towards a new phase of liquidity support after two years of balance sheet reduction [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - John Williams, President of the New York Federal Reserve, stated that the potential bond purchases would be a natural step in executing a strategy for sufficient reserves, not a change in policy stance [3]. - Since the initiation of balance sheet reduction in June 2022, the Federal Reserve's balance sheet has decreased by $2.2 trillion, reducing its GDP ratio from a peak of 35% to approximately 21%, making the timing for halting the reduction more appropriate [1]. Group 2: Market Implications - Financial institutions have increasingly utilized repurchase agreement facilities to address short-term funding pressures since October [1]. - The Markit iBoxx index for Chinese dollar bonds showed a 0.1% decline in returns as of October 31, with investment-grade bond returns also down by 0.1%, while high-yield bond returns remained unchanged [1].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is transitioning from a "preventive rate cut" approach to a "wait-and-see" stance, leading to increased uncertainty in short-term policy paths [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Rate Decisions - The Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%-4.00% during the October meeting, amidst a complex backdrop due to the U.S. government shutdown affecting key employment data [2] - The decision reflects a proactive approach to mitigate potential job market downturns, despite stable private sector employment indicators [2][3] - Internal divisions within the Federal Reserve are growing, with some members advocating for more aggressive cuts while others suggest pausing [3] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Market Reactions - The market's expectation for a December rate cut has decreased from 82.4% to 63.8% following the October meeting, indicating a shift in sentiment [1] - The upcoming December decision will heavily depend on employment and inflation data post-government shutdown, with a focus on whether job market indicators show significant improvement [1][3] - Recent easing of U.S.-China trade tensions may alleviate inflationary pressures from tariffs, presenting a potential positive factor for the economy [3] Group 3: Monetary Policy and Market Conditions - The Federal Reserve announced it will stop balance sheet reduction starting December 1, as liquidity tightening signals have emerged in the U.S. money market [4] - Since the initiation of balance sheet reduction in June 2022, the Fed's balance sheet has contracted by $2.2 trillion, reducing its GDP ratio from 35% to approximately 21% [4] - The dollar index has shown signs of a rebound, and with the Fed's hawkish signals, market volatility risks are expected to increase, potentially impacting metal prices and emerging market assets [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan is accelerating plans to reduce its substantial ETF holdings, with a gradual market sale of these risk assets being the primary strategy. The timing of this policy initiation remains uncertain [1][2]. Group 1: ETF Reduction Strategy - The internal strategy of the Bank of Japan will focus on "phased, small-batch, gradual sales" rather than alternative methods like transferring to state-owned entities [2]. - The Bank of Japan's experience from 2002 to 2010, where it sold bank stocks, will inform its approach to selling ETFs, aiming to avoid market turmoil through long-term, small-scale transactions [2]. - Since 2010, the Bank of Japan has accumulated ETF holdings amounting to 35 trillion yen (approximately 251 billion USD), which now faces pressure for market-driven "digestion" [2]. Group 2: Necessity of ETF Sales - Selling ETFs is viewed as a crucial step for the current governor, Ueda Kazuo, to conclude the large-scale monetary stimulus initiated by his predecessor [3]. - Unlike government bonds that automatically drop off the balance sheet upon maturity, ETFs do not have a maturity date, necessitating active sales for balance sheet normalization [3]. - The Bank of Japan has maintained a cautious stance regarding the timing and method of ETF sales, emphasizing the need for a "proper" price to avoid losses or significant market disruption [3]. Group 3: Timing and Political Factors - The timing of the ETF sale remains a significant issue, with no consensus reached within the Bank of Japan on when to proceed [4]. - Analysts suggest that the Bank of Japan is unlikely to make a decision on ETF sales in the upcoming policy meeting, although comments may be made afterward [4]. - Political uncertainty following the resignation of Prime Minister Kishida Fumio has created a challenging environment for the Bank of Japan to act, as the new government's policy direction is still unclear [5].

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan must steadily advance the normalization of its balance sheet, although this process may take some time [1] Group 1 - The statement emphasizes the importance of a gradual approach to balance sheet normalization by the Bank of Japan [1]