Core Viewpoint - The GBP/USD exchange rate is currently in a narrow fluctuation pattern, with market focus on the policy directions of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, which are expected to significantly influence the exchange rate [1] Group 1: Recent Performance - Since November, the GBP/USD has shown resilience, with a cumulative increase of 0.63% for the month, continuing a strong trend observed throughout the year [1] - The strength of the GBP is supported by dual factors: the rising expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut and positive developments in the UK economy [1][2] Group 2: Federal Reserve Insights - Market expectations indicate an 87% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points in December, bringing the federal funds rate to a range of 3.50%–3.75%, marking the third rate cut of the year [1] - Despite the consensus on a rate cut, there are expectations for a "hawkish cut" signal from the Fed, suggesting a potential pause in easing by early 2026 due to persistent inflation pressures and a resilient labor market [1] Group 3: UK Economic Factors - The UK Chancellor's announcement of a £26 billion tax increase to address the fiscal gap has alleviated concerns about government debt management, boosting investor confidence in the sustainability of UK finances [2] - The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) has raised the 2025 economic growth forecast from 1% to 1.5%, providing solid support for the GBP [2] - UK inflation is declining, with October CPI at 3.6% year-on-year, but remains above the 2% target, which may limit the pace of rate cuts by the Bank of England [2] Group 4: Market Expectations for the Bank of England - There is a divergence in market expectations regarding the Bank of England's December policy direction, with an 88% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut predicted by institutions like Goldman Sachs [2] - However, some investors believe that high inflation and improved fiscal policy may lead the Bank of England to slow down the rate cut pace [2] Group 5: Technical Analysis - The GBP/USD is in a "waiting for a breakout" pattern, having maintained a steady upward trend over the past three weeks, supported by the 10-day moving average [3] - The exchange rate has broken above the 200-day moving average at 1.3326 but faces resistance near the 100-day moving average at 1.3365 [3] - The current trading range is between 1.3250 and 1.3350, with potential upward movement if the rate breaks through the 1.3370-1.3380 resistance zone [3] Group 6: Future Focus - Key upcoming events include the Federal Reserve's meeting results and the Bank of England's decision on December 18, which will be crucial for the GBP/USD outlook [4] - If the Federal Reserve cuts rates with a dovish statement and the Bank of England unexpectedly maintains rates, the GBP/USD may break through key resistance levels [4] - Conversely, if the Bank of England cuts rates while the Federal Reserve issues a hawkish statement, the exchange rate may test lower boundaries [4]

Core Viewpoint - The current market focus is on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and the Swiss National Bank's policy path, with expectations of a hawkish rate cut from the Fed and a stable rate from the Swiss central bank [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Insights - The market has fully priced in a 25 basis point rate cut in December, with a probability of 87.6%, bringing the federal funds rate to a range of 3.50%-3.75% [1] - There is increasing internal disagreement among Fed members, with five opposing the rate cut, leading to expectations of a "hawkish rate cut" that may suggest a pause in easing by early 2026, providing some support for the dollar [1] Group 2: Swiss National Bank Insights - The Swiss National Bank is expected to maintain its interest rate at 0.25%, having already cut rates five times previously [1] - The SNB's stance is supported by slightly higher-than-expected potential inflation in Switzerland and external factors such as Germany's fiscal plans, indicating the end of the current rate cut cycle, which limits the upside potential for the dollar against the Swiss franc [1] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The USD/CHF pair is currently in a consolidation phase within the 0.7970-0.8020 range, with MACD indicators showing balanced buying and selling forces [2] - A breakout above the 0.8020 resistance could lead to testing the 0.8050 level, while a drop below the 0.7970 support may see further declines towards 0.7950 [2] - Future focus will be on the Fed's meeting statement and Powell's remarks, with expectations that a hawkish signal could support the dollar index and push USD/CHF above the current range [2]

关注港股市场流动性边际改善后的科技成长板块机会： 港股通科技ETF基金（159101.SZ）恒生科技指数ETF（513180.SH）恒生医药ETF（159892.SZ）。 每日经济新闻 北京时间12月11日凌晨，美联储宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点至3.5%至3.75%之间，符合 预期。美股三大指数集体收涨，热门中概股多数上涨，此前被市场充分计入的"鹰派降息"预期出现反 转，市场的担忧有所缓解。 美联储点阵图预测显示在2026年和2027年各有一次25个基点的降息。美联储鲍威尔表示，美联储一直在 朝着中性利率方向调整，目前已处于中性利率区间的上端，尚未就一月事宜做出决定。 中金公司指出，美联储如预期在12月会议上降息25个基点，但反对降息的官员增至两人，显示进一步降 息的门槛正在抬高。与此同时，鲍威尔的表态并不强硬，加之美联储宣布将启动短期国库券（T-bills） 购买操作，帮助缓和了市场的担忧。此前被充分计入的"鹰派降息"预期出现反转，加剧了市场波动。展 望未来，鉴于经济与就业仍面临下行压力，我们预计美联储或将在2026年继续降息；但考虑到通胀粘性 犹存，降息节奏趋于放缓。1月可能按兵不动，下一次 ...

新华财经北京12月11日电中金研报称，美联储如预期在12月会议上降息25个基点，但反对降息的官员增 至两人，显示进一步降息的门槛正在抬高。 （文章来源：新华财经） 与此同时，鲍威尔的表态并不强硬，加之美联储宣布将启动短期国库券（T-bills）购买操作，帮助缓和 了市场的担忧。此前被充分计入的"鹰派降息"预期出现反转，加剧了市场波动。 展望未来，鉴于经济与就业仍面临下行压力，中金预计美联储或将在2026年继续降息；但考虑到通胀粘 性犹存，降息节奏趋于放缓。1月可能按兵不动，下一次降息或在3月。 ...

｜2025年12月11日星期四｜ NO.1中金：美联储明年1月可能按兵不动，下一次降息或在明年3月份 12月11日，中金公司（601995）研报指出，美联储如预期在12月会议上降息25个基点，但反对降息的官 员增至两人，显示进一步降息的门槛正在抬高。与此同时，鲍威尔的表态并不强硬，加之美联储宣布将 启动短期国库券(T-bills)购买操作，帮助缓和了市场的担忧。此前被充分计入的"鹰派降息"预期出现反 转，加剧了市场波动。展望未来，鉴于经济与就业仍面临下行压力，我们预计美联储或将在2026年继续 降息；但考虑到通胀粘性犹存，降息节奏趋于放缓。明年1月份可能按兵不动，下一次降息或在明年3月 份。 NO.2中金：2026年储能行业需求景气度仍然较高 中金认为2026年储能行业需求景气度仍然较高，主要原因为：1)储能需求增长逻辑不变，一方面是全球 能源转型趋势持续，风光装机占比提升需要依赖电网、储能建设，另一方面是AI数据中心缺电逻辑仍 在，预期明年或将涌现更多AI配储项目；2)国内、美国、欧洲三大主要市场大储招标、计划项目量较 大；中东、印度、澳洲、智利市场大储需求涌现；3)户储和工商储需求仍然强劲，新兴市场缺电逻 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates for the third consecutive time by 25 basis points, marking the first instance of three dissenting votes on a rate decision since 2019, indicating significant internal disagreement among policymakers [1][5][7]. Summary by Sections Interest Rate Decision - The Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate has been reduced from 3.75%-4.00% to 3.50%-3.75%, totaling a cumulative reduction of 175 basis points since the easing cycle began in September of the previous year [5][7]. - The decision to lower rates was widely anticipated by the market, with an 88% probability of a 25 basis point cut predicted by futures markets prior to the announcement [5]. Internal Disagreement - The recent meeting revealed the largest dissent among Federal Reserve officials in 37 years, with three members voting against the rate cut, reflecting a significant divide on concerns regarding inflation and employment [5][6][7]. - The dissenting votes came from Stephen Miran, Austan Goolsbee, and Jeffrey Schmid, with Miran advocating for a 50 basis point cut [7][8]. Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve has adjusted its GDP growth forecasts upward for this year and the next three years, with the most significant increase of 0.5 percentage points for the upcoming year [4][19]. - There has been a slight downward adjustment in inflation and unemployment rate expectations for the next two years, indicating a more optimistic view on inflation trends [19][22]. Future Rate Guidance - The statement now includes a more explicit consideration of the "magnitude and timing" of future rate cuts, suggesting that any further reductions will be approached with greater caution [3][9][10]. - The median projections for the federal funds rate indicate that the Fed expects to lower rates once in the next two years, with a more dovish outlook compared to previous forecasts [20][21]. Market Operations - The Federal Reserve plans to begin purchasing $40 billion in short-term Treasury securities to maintain adequate reserve levels in the banking system, starting this week [3][13]. - This move is part of a broader strategy to manage liquidity in the financial markets, especially as year-end pressures typically arise [11][13].

美东时间12月10日， 美联储在今年的最后一次议息会议上，再度降息25 个基点将联邦基金利 率区间降至3.5%—3.75%，这是2025年的第三次降息，同时也为明年的降息预期定下基调。 降息当天，美股三大主要股指集体收高，纳斯达克综合指数上涨78点，标普500指数上涨46 点，道琼斯工业指数上涨497点，涨幅超过1%。【 详情 】 就业走弱与顽固通胀 使政策博弈更复杂 不同于以往的"整齐划一"，此次决策出现罕见的"三向分裂"：堪萨斯城联储主席施密德与芝加 哥联储主席古尔斯比坚持应"按兵不动"，而理事米然则主张直接一口气降息50个基点。这是自 2019年以来，联邦公开市场委员会首次出现三名委员同时反对政策行动。 这背后反映的是，经济信号变得比以往更模糊、更具争议。就业市场虽仍具韧性，但走弱迹象 已经难以忽视——鲍威尔公开指出，近期就业数据可能被"系统性高估"，真实的就业增长动能 或远弱于统计数字。与此同时，通胀依然顽固地高于目标区间大约一个百分点，而关税效应正 在推升商品通胀，使货币政策面临比想象更复杂的权衡。 鲍威尔在发布会上将当前局势形容为"一道难题"。他强调，委员会内部对通胀过高与劳动力市 场趋弱的判断几 ...

要点 ： 美联储利率决议自2019年来首次遭三票反对，一人主张降50基点，两名票委和四名非票委支持按兵不动，实为七人反对决议，分歧据称为37年来最大。 会议声明删除失业率"保持低位" ；新增考虑进一步降息的"幅度和时机"，被视为暗示降息门槛更高。联储为维持充足准备金将周五起买短债，预计明年 一季度RMP购债保持高位。"新美联储通讯社"：联储暗示可能暂时不会再降息，因内部分歧大得"罕见"。 美联储如市场所料连续第三次降息25个基点，但自2019年来首次三票反对利率决议。 特朗普"钦点"的理事米兰继续主张降息50基点，两名地区联储主席以及四名非票委支持按兵不动，实际七人反对决议，据称分歧为37年来最大。 经济展望上调今年及此后三年GDP增长预期，小幅下调今明年通胀和后年失业率预期。 "新美联储通讯社"：联储暗示可能暂时不会再降息，因内部对通胀和就业担忧孰轻孰重的分歧大得"罕见"。 美联储如市场所料再次以常规步伐降息，但暴露了投票决策者内部六年来最大的分歧，暗示明年将放慢行动步伐，近期可能不行动。联储也如华尔街人 士所料启动准备金管理，决定年末买入短期国债应对货币市场的压力。 美东时间12月10日周三，美联储在货币 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, marking the third cut this year, while indicating a potential slowdown in future rate cuts due to internal divisions among policymakers [1][4][8]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Rate Decision - The target range for the federal funds rate has been reduced from 3.75%-4.00% to 3.50%-3.75%, totaling a 75 basis point cut this year and 175 basis points since September of last year [1][4]. - This decision faced significant dissent, with three votes against it, marking the largest internal disagreement in six years [1][4][3]. - The dot plot indicates that the Fed still expects one more 25 basis point cut next year, suggesting a slower pace of rate cuts compared to this year [1][8]. Group 2: Market Expectations - The CME tool shows an 88% probability of a 25 basis point cut this week, with a 71% chance of another cut by June next year, while the probabilities for cuts in January, March, and April are below 50% [1][2]. - The term "hawkish cut" has been used to describe the Fed's current stance, indicating a rate cut with a hint of a pause in future actions [2]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - The Fed has raised its GDP growth forecast for this year and the next three years, while slightly lowering the unemployment rate forecast for 2027 by 0.1 percentage points, indicating a resilient labor market [12]. - The Fed has also slightly reduced its PCE inflation and core PCE inflation forecasts for the next two years by 0.1 percentage points, reflecting increased confidence in a slowdown in inflation [13]. Group 4: Short-Term Treasury Purchases - The Fed has announced the initiation of short-term Treasury purchases to maintain sufficient reserves in the banking system, planning to buy $40 billion in short-term debt over the next 30 days [6][7][22]. - This move is aimed at rebuilding liquidity buffers in the money market, especially as year-end market pressures typically arise [6][7].

鲍威尔还有哪些表态？对于未来货币政策，机构如何解读？一图速览>> 三位票委持相反意见 北京时间12月11日，美联储结残 以9-3的投票决定将联邦基ദ 3.5%-3.75%。美联储还宣布启 率稳定，保持银行储备充足，并 3张反对票呈相反意见，美联储I 事斯蒂芬·米兰主张降息50个基ғ 储主席古尔斯比则主张按兵不动 追溯至2019年9月。 前一轮加息/ Mor - ........ .. .. ●● .. mmmmm .... ●●●●●●●●●●●●●● .. .. .... ... . ..... ....... ....... ��� �� ��� . .. ... . . 2025 2027 2028 2026 美联储主席鲍威尔 艰难的降息抉择: 我完全可以支持任何一方的观点 ......这确实是一个艰难的决定。 我们始终希望数据能够给我们提 供清晰的判断......目前形势非常 严峻。我认为我们现在应该静观 其变，看看经济将如何发展。 启动观望模式: Cnh Anr Mos HJI IVIA IVIAI Jall I GU 2022 25 50 2023 25 25 25 2024 2025 E连降后首 ...