美元方面，尽管美国第三季度GDP年化增长率达4.3%，远超预期的3.3%，但强劲数据未能扭转美元的 广谱弱势。美元指数近期跌至97.75的三个月低位，美元兑十国集团货币普遍走弱，其中对新西兰元跌 幅最大达1.75%，美元兑瑞郎也顺势承接了这一弱势趋势。鲍威尔在讲话中着重提及劳动力市场疲软的 迹象，进一步强化了市场对美联储宽松节奏的预期，本周二将公布的10-11月非农数据，有望进一步明 晰市场对美联储政策路径的判断，进而影响美元走势。 技术面呈现出明显的矛盾信号：一方面，RSI(相对强弱指数)降至22.79，已进入超卖区间，暗示短期或 存在技术性反弹需求；另一方面，MACD快慢线持续位于零轴下方，空头动能仍占据主导，且汇价已形 成"熊旗"形态，这一形态通常被视为下跌延续信号，反弹的持续性需基本面因素配合。当前汇价已跌破 0.79关键支撑位，短期在0.79-0.80区间低位震荡，下方支撑重点关注0.7870(10月以来低点)，若跌破该水 平，可能进一步下探0.7770一线；上方阻力则集中于0.8060及0.8200，需站稳0.7960后，才有望向上述阻 力区域发起冲击。 12月25日早间，美元兑瑞郎汇率报0.78 ...

12月23日亚洲时段，澳元兑美元窄幅震荡，开盘0.6655，发稿前涨至0.6664，日内涨幅0.1352%，波动 于0.6652-0.6666。当前汇价核心逻辑聚焦于政策路径分化：澳洲联储暂停降息并释放通胀上行风险信 号，市场押注其明年或开启加息；而美联储连续降息后政策前景模糊，双重博弈下澳美呈现弱波动特 征。 澳联储政策转向成澳元关键支撑。12月9日，澳联储连续第三次维持利率在3.6%不变，声明明确通胀风 险已偏向上行，劳动力市场仍偏紧，且未考虑降息选项。市场预期本轮宽松周期已结束，利率期货显示 明年5月加息概率达50%，高盛等机构亦预测其下一步更可能加息而非降息。反观美联储，年内三次降 息累计75个基点，虽市场对其2026年政策分歧较大，但整体宽松基调未改，美元吸引力受限，间接支撑 澳元。 澳大利亚经济基本面呈现分化特征。三季度GDP同比增长2.1%，私人需求表现强劲，主要由商业投资 驱动，但环比增速低于预期。通胀方面，物价压力再度抬头，核心通胀仍高于目标区间，这成为澳联储 警惕的关键因素。家庭消费保持稳健，储蓄率回升至疫情前水平，但消费者谨慎情绪仍存，一定程度制 约经济复苏动能，进而影响澳元上行节奏。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Australian dollar (AUD) has appreciated against the US dollar (USD), reaching a two-month high, driven by the Reserve Bank of Australia's hawkish stance and the Federal Reserve's expectations of rate cuts [1][2]. Group 1: Australian Economic Indicators - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) maintained the benchmark interest rate at 3.6%, marking the third consecutive meeting without a rate cut, with inflation risks identified as rising [1]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 3.2% year-on-year in Q3 and further increased to 3.8% in October, driven by housing, electricity prices, and service sector inflation [1]. - Private demand in Australia is recovering steadily, supported by consumption and investment, with the real estate market showing signs of activity and price increases [1]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.50%-3.75%, with market focus on policy language and future guidance [2]. - Internal divisions within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) are notable, with the current inflation rate at 2.8%, leading to speculation about the potential for "hawkish rate cuts" [2]. Group 3: Currency Market Dynamics - The USD index has shown significant downward movement since early December, declining by 1.2% from late November highs, which has supported non-USD currencies, including the AUD [2]. - The AUD is favored among G10 currencies, with expectations that if the Fed signals further rate cuts in 2026, the AUD could appreciate further [2]. Group 4: Key Technical Levels - The AUD/USD is facing resistance at the 0.6650 level, which is both a previous high and a psychological barrier; a breakthrough could lead to a challenge of the yearly high of 0.6707 [3]. - The core support range for the AUD/USD is identified between 0.6520 and 0.6550, which includes moving averages and previous channel support; a drop below this range could trigger a deeper correction [3].

Core Viewpoint - The GBP/USD exchange rate is currently in a narrow fluctuation pattern, with market focus on the policy directions of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, which are expected to significantly influence the exchange rate [1] Group 1: Recent Performance - Since November, the GBP/USD has shown resilience, with a cumulative increase of 0.63% for the month, continuing a strong trend observed throughout the year [1] - The strength of the GBP is supported by dual factors: the rising expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut and positive developments in the UK economy [1][2] Group 2: Federal Reserve Insights - Market expectations indicate an 87% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points in December, bringing the federal funds rate to a range of 3.50%–3.75%, marking the third rate cut of the year [1] - Despite the consensus on a rate cut, there are expectations for a "hawkish cut" signal from the Fed, suggesting a potential pause in easing by early 2026 due to persistent inflation pressures and a resilient labor market [1] Group 3: UK Economic Factors - The UK Chancellor's announcement of a £26 billion tax increase to address the fiscal gap has alleviated concerns about government debt management, boosting investor confidence in the sustainability of UK finances [2] - The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) has raised the 2025 economic growth forecast from 1% to 1.5%, providing solid support for the GBP [2] - UK inflation is declining, with October CPI at 3.6% year-on-year, but remains above the 2% target, which may limit the pace of rate cuts by the Bank of England [2] Group 4: Market Expectations for the Bank of England - There is a divergence in market expectations regarding the Bank of England's December policy direction, with an 88% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut predicted by institutions like Goldman Sachs [2] - However, some investors believe that high inflation and improved fiscal policy may lead the Bank of England to slow down the rate cut pace [2] Group 5: Technical Analysis - The GBP/USD is in a "waiting for a breakout" pattern, having maintained a steady upward trend over the past three weeks, supported by the 10-day moving average [3] - The exchange rate has broken above the 200-day moving average at 1.3326 but faces resistance near the 100-day moving average at 1.3365 [3] - The current trading range is between 1.3250 and 1.3350, with potential upward movement if the rate breaks through the 1.3370-1.3380 resistance zone [3] Group 6: Future Focus - Key upcoming events include the Federal Reserve's meeting results and the Bank of England's decision on December 18, which will be crucial for the GBP/USD outlook [4] - If the Federal Reserve cuts rates with a dovish statement and the Bank of England unexpectedly maintains rates, the GBP/USD may break through key resistance levels [4] - Conversely, if the Bank of England cuts rates while the Federal Reserve issues a hawkish statement, the exchange rate may test lower boundaries [4]

2025年12月4日早盘，美元兑瑞郎报0.8000，较前一交易日微涨0.05%，日内波动于0.7990-0.8003区间， 延续0.80-0.81的低位震荡格局。美联储与瑞士央行政策分化、瑞郎避险属性强化，是汇率波动的核心驱 动。 美瑞汇率分化的核心是央行政策路径差异。美联储2025年完成两轮降息后，联邦基金利率维持 3.50%-3.75%，政策转向"数据依赖型观望"。鲍威尔强调12月降息需参考通胀与就业——10月核心PCE 同比2.8%距目标仍有差距，失业率3.8%保持稳定。美联储修订政策框架回归传统通胀目标，政策稳健 性抑制美元跌势，为美瑞汇率提供支撑。 瑞郎2025年强势源于双重逻辑：地缘冲突与全球经济放缓推动避险资金涌入，使其兑欧元升值8.3%； 瑞士金融体系稳定，即便三季度GDP环比仅增0.1%，汇率韧性仍强于其他避险货币。瑞士央行陷入政 策两难：干预汇率恐遭"操纵"指控，激进降息则可能压缩银行0.62%的历史低位净息差，引发信贷风 险。 美国经济韧性支撑美元：三季度GDP环比折年率2.1%超预期，消费支出增长3.0%，推动美元指数7月后 在98-102区间企稳。但长期压力仍存，白宫明确表态"弱美元 ...

Core Viewpoint - The delay in the release of U.S. CPI data has weakened the dollar and created uncertainty in the market, allowing the euro to maintain its structural strength and range-bound movement against the dollar [1][5][10]. Summary by Sections Market Dynamics - The euro to dollar exchange rate is currently in a narrow range, with clear resistance at 1.16059 and support at 1.15627, reflecting indecision among traders as they await the delayed CPI data [3][14]. - The postponement of the CPI data has removed a crucial directional guide for the dollar, leading to a weakening sentiment towards the dollar while the euro has managed to hold onto recent gains [3][5]. Impact of CPI Delay - The delay in U.S. CPI data is a key factor affecting the euro to dollar exchange rate, as uncertainty leads to a reduction in dollar long positions, providing natural support for the euro [5]. - The forex market is currently in a "neutral mode," with traders managing expectations in the absence of new information, which tends to impact the dollar more than the euro [6]. Technical Analysis - The euro to dollar pair is in a consolidation phase, with a potential breakout expected after the CPI data is released, rather than before [7]. - The current technical outlook suggests that a breakout above 1.16059 could lead to targets at 1.16350 and 1.16688, while a drop below 1.15627 could trigger a deeper correction towards 1.15400 or lower [16][18]. Fundamental Drivers - The euro's resilience is attributed to several macroeconomic factors, including a narrowing policy divergence between the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, which diminishes the dollar's yield advantage [8][10]. - Improvements in European market sentiment, service activity, and industrial demand are providing support for the euro, with stability becoming an advantage rather than a weakness [9]. - The reduction of risk premiums related to energy concerns, bond vulnerabilities, and geopolitical issues has made the euro a safer choice when the dollar is under pressure [10]. Overall Outlook - The current macro environment allows the euro to maintain stability without needing to exhibit strong performance, as this stability is sufficient to support an upward trend when the dollar is weak [11].

Core Viewpoint - The global financial market is experiencing turbulence due to a combination of sovereign debt crises, divergent monetary policies, geopolitical conflicts, and commodity price fluctuations, creating a complex risk transmission chain [1] Debt Risk - Global public debt has reached 93.2% of GDP in 2023, an increase of 9 percentage points since before the pandemic, with Argentina, Turkey, Egypt, Pakistan, and Japan identified as the most likely candidates for financial crises in the next 6-12 months [3] - High-debt countries are pressured to refinance existing debt, but rising global interest rates are increasing financing costs and compressing fiscal space, which could lead to a liquidity crunch if emerging markets experience a wave of defaults [4] Policy Divergence - There is an increasing divergence in global monetary policy, characterized by the Federal Reserve maintaining a tight stance while other central banks are forced to adjust their policies [5] - The tightening of dollar liquidity and potential crises in Japanese bonds could exacerbate pressures on highly leveraged financial institutions [6] Geopolitical Risks - Geopolitical conflicts are impacting financial markets through energy price volatility and supply chain disruptions [9] - The price of gold reached a historical high of $3,440 per ounce in May 2025, reflecting investor concerns about tail risks associated with geopolitical tensions [10] Market Performance - Global stock markets are showing mixed performance, with safe-haven assets and risk assets diverging significantly [11] - The Hong Kong stock market is benefiting from expectations of a recovery in Chinese domestic demand and improved US-China trade relations, while commodities are under pressure due to weak demand and insufficient hedging against geopolitical risks [12] Investment Strategies - The financial market is currently navigating through debt risks, policy divergence, and geopolitical tensions, necessitating a dynamic perspective to identify transformation opportunities [13] - Energy prices are experiencing "zigzag fluctuations" due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict and escalating Middle Eastern tensions, with WTI crude oil prices down 23.47% year-on-year [14] - The Hong Kong stock market's Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 3.08%, with technology and new energy vehicle companies leading the gains [15]