美元兑瑞郎的价格行为与年末以来的节奏高度一致：先在0.7860附近出现阶段性止跌，再回到0.79上方 整理。当前0.7930所处位置，介于前期反弹后的整理区间之内，而上方0.7950一带也容易成为技术交易 者关注的参考区。若从动量指标观察，日线图上MACD仍处于零轴下方，柱状动能接近收敛，意味着下 行趋势的惯性在减弱，但并未完全扭转；RSI约在44附近，说明市场并未进入明显超卖的极端状态，更 符合"弱势反弹后横盘修复"的典型形态。 更值得注意的是，美元兑瑞郎在过去一年显著回落的背景下，市场对"美元周期"与"避险溢价"之间的权 重正在重新分配。若市场担忧上升，瑞郎的避险属性会使其相对更强；而当风险偏好回暖时，瑞郎的强 势通常也不会立刻完全消退，因为利率预期与资金避险配置往往具有惯性。因此，汇价在0.79附近反复 拉锯，并不矛盾：它反映的是两股力量的同步存在——美元端的短期数据韧性提供支撑，但更长期的宽 松预期压制上行；瑞郎端既有数据改善的加分项，也有避险需求的底盘效应。 周五（1月2日）美元兑瑞郎北美时段交投于0.7930附近，整体表现较为平稳，最终收跌0.01%，报 0.7923。美元对瑞郎汇率在去年末曾下探 ...

全球避险升温放大瑞郎优势，资金持续流入。瑞士央行因曾被列为"货币操纵国"，汇市干预阻力大，瑞 郎升值压力难释放。而美元避险地位因美贸易与财政担忧动摇，与瑞郎形成此消彼长。 技术面空头明确，汇价跌破0.79支撑及20日均线，MACD呈空头结构。RSI一度超卖触发短暂反弹，但 动能不足。阻力位集中于0.7960、0.8060及0.8200；支撑在0.7860-0.7830，跌破或下探0.7770。 机构中长期偏空但短期有分歧：渣打预计超卖后或反弹至0.8060，瑞银则看空至2026年上半年。短期需 关注美联储纪要、美非农及瑞士CPI；中长期聚焦美瑞利差、瑞央行政策及全球避险情绪。 综上，美元兑瑞郎弱势由多重因素叠加导致，短期或技术性反弹，中长期下行趋势未改，投资者需紧盯 数据与政策信号，做好风控。 2025年末，美元兑瑞郎维持弱势，12月30日亚市早盘交投于0.7895，逼近本月三个月低点0.7860。全年 累计跌幅超10%，2026年下探预期升温。年末假期令市场交投清淡，汇价波动收窄，12月29日欧盘主要 在0.7880-0.7920区间震荡。 货币政策分化是核心下行驱动。美联储2025年累计降息75基点，12 ...

2025年年末，美元兑瑞郎延续弱势震荡格局，截至12月30日亚市早盘，汇价交投于0.7895附近，距离本 月触及的三个月低点0.7860仅一步之遥。全年维度来看，美元兑瑞郎累计跌幅已超过10%，在主要非美 货币对中表现突出，市场对其2026年进一步下探的预期持续升温。 近期新年假期临近导致全球金融市场交投清淡，美元兑瑞郎波动幅度收窄，但整体弱势基调未改。12月 29日欧洲盘时段，汇价在0.7880-0.7920区间窄幅震荡，虽因RSI指标进入超卖区间出现短暂技术性反 弹，但缺乏持续动能支撑。短期来看，上方关键阻力位集中在0.7960(20日均线位置)，下方支撑则位于 0.7860-0.7830区间，若跌破0.7830，后续可能进一步下探0.7770一线。 美元兑瑞郎持续走弱的核心，在于美联储与瑞士央行的货币政策分化及立场差异。美联储2025年累计降 息75个基点，将联邦基金利率降至3.50%-3.75%，CME FedWatch工具显示，2026年降息50个基点的概率 高达73.3%，尽管12月议息会议反对票激增预示降息步伐可能放缓，但宽松基调未改。反观瑞士央行， 连续两次维持基准利率在0%不变，行长明确表态 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Swiss Franc (CHF) is experiencing appreciation against the US Dollar (USD) due to diverging monetary policies between the Federal Reserve and the Swiss National Bank, alongside the CHF's safe-haven appeal and the resilience of the Swiss economy [1][2] Group 1: Monetary Policy Impact - The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates for the third time this year by 25 basis points to a range of 3.5%-3.75%, totaling a 75 basis point reduction, which diminishes the attractiveness of the USD [1] - The Swiss National Bank maintains its interest rate at 0%, with a high threshold for returning to negative rates, supporting the CHF [1] - The divergence in monetary policy, characterized by "Fed easing and Swiss stability," favors the CHF [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The Swiss economy shows resilience, with third-quarter GDP contraction offset by growth in manufacturing and services, and the central bank projects GDP growth slightly below 1.5% for 2025 [1] - The US third-quarter GDP exceeded expectations but failed to reverse the USD's weakness, with the USD index falling to a three-month low [1] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Technical Analysis - Increased global geopolitical and trade uncertainties are attracting funds into the CHF, although excessive appreciation could lead to deflation and impact exports [2] - Technical indicators show mixed signals, with RSI entering oversold territory suggesting a potential short-term rebound, while MACD remains bearish [2] - Institutions have differing views on future trends, with Standard Chartered suggesting a potential short-term rebound for the USD, while UBS expects continued weakness until mid-2026 [2] Group 4: Future Focus - Key future considerations include the pace of Federal Reserve rate cuts, signals from the Swiss National Bank, and global geopolitical risks [2] - Investors are advised to monitor Swiss inflation, Federal Reserve communications, and non-farm payroll data for risk management [2]

美元方面，尽管美国第三季度GDP年化增长率达4.3%，远超预期的3.3%，但强劲数据未能扭转美元的 广谱弱势。美元指数近期跌至97.75的三个月低位，美元兑十国集团货币普遍走弱，其中对新西兰元跌 幅最大达1.75%，美元兑瑞郎也顺势承接了这一弱势趋势。鲍威尔在讲话中着重提及劳动力市场疲软的 迹象，进一步强化了市场对美联储宽松节奏的预期，本周二将公布的10-11月非农数据，有望进一步明 晰市场对美联储政策路径的判断，进而影响美元走势。 技术面呈现出明显的矛盾信号：一方面，RSI(相对强弱指数)降至22.79，已进入超卖区间，暗示短期或 存在技术性反弹需求；另一方面，MACD快慢线持续位于零轴下方，空头动能仍占据主导，且汇价已形 成"熊旗"形态，这一形态通常被视为下跌延续信号，反弹的持续性需基本面因素配合。当前汇价已跌破 0.79关键支撑位，短期在0.79-0.80区间低位震荡，下方支撑重点关注0.7870(10月以来低点)，若跌破该水 平，可能进一步下探0.7770一线；上方阻力则集中于0.8060及0.8200，需站稳0.7960后，才有望向上述阻 力区域发起冲击。 12月25日早间，美元兑瑞郎汇率报0.78 ...

Core Viewpoint - The USD/CHF exchange rate is experiencing low-level fluctuations driven by the divergence in monetary policies between the Federal Reserve and the Swiss National Bank, alongside inflation, economic fundamentals, and risk aversion factors, leading to increased short-term uncertainty [1][2]. Monetary Policy Divergence - The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates for the third time this year by 25 basis points to a range of 3.5%-3.75%, with Powell ruling out further rate hikes, which diminishes the attractiveness of the dollar and suppresses the USD/CHF rate [1]. - In contrast, the Swiss National Bank has maintained its benchmark interest rate at 0% for the second consecutive time, with Schlegel indicating a high threshold for returning to negative interest rates, providing support for the Swiss franc [1][2]. Inflation and Economic Fundamentals - Switzerland's November CPI fell to 0%, reaching the lower limit of the central bank's target range, influenced by declines in housing, rent, and clothing prices, prompting the Swiss National Bank to lower its medium-term inflation forecasts [2]. - The U.S. labor market appears weak, reinforcing expectations for continued monetary easing, with upcoming non-farm payroll data expected to clarify policy direction [2]. Economic Resilience in Switzerland - Despite a contraction in GDP due to a decline in pharmaceutical exports, Switzerland's manufacturing and service sectors have shown moderate growth, with the Swiss National Bank projecting GDP growth slightly below 1.5% in 2025 and around 1% in 2026 [2]. Risk Aversion and Technical Analysis - Year-end market risk aversion is leading to inflows into the Swiss franc, which is suppressing the exchange rate, although excessive appreciation of the franc could trigger deflation, placing the Swiss National Bank in a dilemma regarding potential intervention [2]. - Technically, the exchange rate has declined nearly 1% over the past three days, facing resistance at the 0.8000 level, with the RSI entering oversold territory, while the MACD indicates a bearish trend [2]. Short-term Predictions - Institutions forecast the USD/CHF exchange rate to fluctuate within the 0.7920-0.7980 range, with key support at the previous low of 0.7915 and resistance at 0.7980 and 0.8000 [3].

后续焦点集中于美联储议息会议声明及鲍威尔表态。机构预测，若美联储释放鹰派超预期信号，美元指 数或获支撑，推动美元兑瑞郎突破区间；若表态偏鸽，汇价可能下探支撑位。此外，瑞士央行后续利率 决议及欧元区经济数据亦需关注。长期看，美瑞政策分化程度、美国通胀与就业走势，将主导汇率核心 走向。 12月11日美元兑瑞郎报0.7986当前市场核心博弈聚焦美联储议息结果与瑞士央行政策路径，前者鹰派降 息预期升温，后者大概率维持利率稳定，汇价在关键区间等待明确方向指引。 瑞士央行方面，市场预计其将维持利率在0.25%不变。该行此前已连续五次降息，行长施莱格尔曾表态 进一步放宽政策可能性较低，必要时仍会干预汇市。凯投宏观分析指出，瑞士潜在通胀率略高于预期， 叠加德国财政方案等外部因素，本轮降息周期或已终结，这一立场为瑞郎提供底部支撑，限制美元兑瑞 郎上行空间。 技术面看，美元兑瑞郎短期震荡格局明显，当前处于0.7970-0.8020区间整理。指标显示，MACD动能柱 贴近零轴，多空力量相对均衡；RSI指标位于48附近，暂无明显超买超卖信号。上行方面，若突破 0.8020阻力位，后续有望测试0.8050关口；下行方面，核心支撑在0. ...

Core Viewpoint - The USD/CHF exchange rate remains stable with slight fluctuations, influenced by market risk appetite and central bank policies [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - On November 24, the USD/CHF opened at 0.8081 and closed at 0.8082, with a trading range of 0.8075 to 0.8090 [1] - The Nasdaq Composite Index rose by 2.69% on the same day, increasing market risk appetite and suppressing the safe-haven demand for the Swiss Franc [1] - As of November 25, the USD/CHF rate showed a slight increase to 0.8083, reflecting mixed market factors including geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The 10-year government bond yields for the US and Switzerland are 4.035% and 1.25% respectively, providing a yield differential that supports the USD [1] - Switzerland's trade surplus expanded to 3.2 billion CHF in October, indicating economic resilience that offers implicit support for the Swiss Franc [1] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The USD/CHF is expected to trade within a range of 0.8079 to 0.8087, with support at 0.8075 and resistance at 0.8090 [2] - Current technical indicators show a neutral stance, with RSI at 47 and MACD near the zero line, indicating balanced buying and selling momentum [2] - A break below 0.8075 could lead to a test of the 0.8070 support level, while a move above 0.8090 may target 0.8095 to 0.8100 [2]

周三（11月12日）美元兑瑞郎汇率今日开盘报0.7999，昨日收盘于0.8005，截至发稿前美元兑瑞郎报 0.8006，涨幅0.03%，最高价0.8011，最低价0.7997。今日预计交易区间为0.8001支撑位和0.8101阻力位 之间。趋势预测：看涨。 美元兑瑞郎在最后盘中收高，由于其短期偏向主要看涨趋势线，伴随着相对强弱指标出现积极信号，在 达到超卖水平并达到我们最后建议的目标0.8000支撑后，增加了看涨动能，由于该支撑的稳定性，另一 方面，由于交易低于EMA50，该货币对仍承受负压，这降低了汇价可持续复苏的机会。近期基础。 趋势预测：看涨。 ...

Core Points - The USD/CHF exchange rate opened at 0.7995 and showed a slight decline of 0.03% to 0.7994 as of the report, with a high of 0.8007 and a low of 0.7989 [1] - The Swiss National Bank (SNB) Governor indicated that the threshold for entering negative interest rates is higher than normal rate cuts, but the SNB is prepared to use all available tools if necessary [1] - High tariffs in Switzerland pose challenges for businesses, yet a significant portion of the Swiss economy remains unaffected by these tariffs [1] - Only about 4% of Swiss exports are directly impacted by U.S. tariffs, suggesting limited overall economic impact [1] - The current monetary policy in Switzerland is expansionary, and even with negative interest rates, monetary policy remains effective according to board member Tschudin [1] - The 50-day SMA (0.7972) and 100-day SMA (0.7968) form a mid-term resistance zone for the USD/CHF exchange rate, which is currently about 0.19 points away from this area [1] - The 200-day SMA (0.7850) serves as a long-term support level, with no signs of a weakening trend observed [1]