证券研究报告 日期：2026年1月5日 【中泰电子】2026 CES前瞻 端侧AI蓄势待发 分析师： 王芳 S0740521120002，杨旭 S0740521120001，洪嘉琳 S0740524090003 1 主题演讲 | 厂 商 | 会议主题 | 亮 点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 英伟达 | NVIDIA CEO主旨演讲 | 英伟达创始人兼首席执行官黄仁勋将介绍英伟达与合作伙伴的突破性技术进展 ，预计将介绍 | | | | Rubin平台最新进度以及NVLink与ASIC生态系合作进展 | | AMD | CES开幕主题演讲 | AMD首席执行官苏姿丰将将深入探讨AMD CPU、GPU、自行调适计算技术、AI软件与解决方案 | | | | 并揭露最新Zen 6架构及AI 等相关解决方案 ，预计将释出MI400系列最新信息 PC平台产品线 ， | | 英特尔 | 英特尔 CES 2026 主题演讲 | 主题演讲将由英特尔客户端计算事业部CCG总经理Jim Johnson主持 将重点阐述英特尔AI PC战 ， | | | 略 | Ultra "Panther ，预计将首发酷睿 第3代 ...

Group 1 - TrendForce has revised the global laptop shipment forecast for 2026 down by 5.4%, indicating a pessimistic outlook for laptop panel shipment momentum [1] - Chairman of Innolux, Hong Jin-yang, believes that the first quarter of next year may see a "good start," primarily driven by strong demand for televisions [1] - AUO's Chairman, Peng Shuanglang, is optimistic about IT upgrades and expects demand for large-sized televisions to grow due to the upcoming Winter Olympics and World Cup [1] Group 2 - Hong Jin-yang stated that the fourth quarter of 2025 will be the lowest point for operations, with clients rushing to stock up on panels and components due to rising storage prices and shortages [1] - TrendForce noted that the shortage of storage has led to rising prices, with television panel prices expected to increase starting January 2026 [1] - Hong Jin-yang predicts optimistic demand and pricing for panels in 2026, with television panels accounting for about 30% of Innolux's total panel shipments [1] Group 3 - Peng Shuanglang previously mentioned that 2026 is expected to see a recovery in demand, driven by the replacement of old machines during the pandemic, and the upcoming Winter Olympics and World Cup benefiting television panels [2] - The demand for laptop panels is anticipated to be supported by the end of Windows 10, the growth of AI PCs, and increasing demand for gaming laptops [2]

Core Insights - IDC has revised its global PC shipment forecast for 2026 downwards for the second time, indicating a potential annual decline of 5% in a neutral scenario and up to 9% in a pessimistic scenario due to ongoing memory shortages and price increases [1] - The previous forecasts from November 2025 and December 2025 indicated smaller declines, showing a significant deterioration in expectations over a short period [1] - The memory shortage is characterized as a strategic reconfiguration of capacity rather than a typical cyclical fluctuation, which poses a long-term challenge for the PC industry [1] Industry Impact - The 9% decline, while not catastrophic, is significant, especially when compared to the 11.9% drop during the 2009 financial crisis and a nearly 15% decline post-pandemic due to market saturation [1] - The PC industry is facing critical challenges with the cessation of Windows 10 support and the promotion of AI PCs, further complicating the market outlook [1] Company Positioning - Major OEMs like Dell, HP, Lenovo, and ASUS are expected to better navigate the challenging environment due to their scale advantages, inventory leverage, and long-term supply agreements [2] - Smaller regional brands, white-label assemblers, and DIY system manufacturers are at a greater risk compared to larger players [2]

Core Viewpoint - The collaboration between Intel and Nvidia marks a significant development in the semiconductor industry, with both companies aiming to design custom x86 chips for data centers and client markets, alongside Nvidia's $5 billion investment in Intel [5][7]. Group 1: Market Impact - Intel's stock price has seen a notable increase following the announcement of the partnership, indicating renewed investor confidence in Intel's potential within the semiconductor sector [5]. - The collaboration is expected to help Intel regain market share in data centers and personal computers, where it has been losing ground to competitors like AMD [7][8]. - Intel's share in the server processor market has dropped below 63%, with projections indicating further declines to around 55% by 2025 and potentially below 50% by 2028, while AMD's share is expected to rise to 40% [9]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - The partnership allows Intel to customize x86 CPUs for Nvidia, integrating NVlink to enhance AI data center capabilities, which could help Intel reclaim its position in the market [8]. - In the consumer CPU market, AMD has begun to surpass Intel, particularly in desktop CPUs, while Intel's traditional stronghold in laptop CPUs faces challenges due to insufficient performance in recent product launches [11][12]. - Intel's ambition to become a major player in the foundry business faces hurdles, as Nvidia's investment has not translated into foundry orders, which are crucial for Intel's value proposition to the U.S. government [13][18]. Group 3: Technological Challenges - Intel's manufacturing technology has lagged behind TSMC, with the latest 18A process yielding only 55% efficiency compared to TSMC's 65% for its N2 process [14][13]. - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a supply shortage, particularly for advanced chips, which presents an opportunity for Intel to position itself as an alternative to TSMC [15][17]. Group 4: Strategic Positioning - Intel's future is increasingly tied to U.S. government interests, which complicates its operational independence and may hinder its ability to innovate effectively [20][21]. - The company's leadership faces challenges in navigating the political landscape while striving for technological advancement and market competitiveness [22].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant price increases in computer components, particularly memory, driven by the demand from AI applications, leading to a structural shortage in the market [5][6]. Group 1: Memory Price Surge - The price of high-end GPU RTX 5090 has reached an official starting price of $1999, potentially exceeding $3000 in the market, while a single 256GB DDR5 memory stick is now priced between $3500 and $5000 [3]. - The current memory price surge is attributed to AI's demand for computing power, which has led to a structural shortage in the memory market [5]. - OpenAI has secured a deal with Samsung and SK Hynix for up to 900,000 DRAM wafers per month, representing 40% of global DRAM monthly production, which has significantly reduced the capacity available for consumer markets [5]. Group 2: Impact on Technology Companies - Major tech companies like Microsoft and Google are struggling to secure memory supplies, with reports of procurement executives being dismissed due to failures in securing long-term supply agreements [8]. - Microsoft executives faced difficulties in negotiations with SK Hynix regarding supply terms, leading to heightened tensions during discussions [8]. - Google has been unable to secure additional capacity for its TPU needs, resulting in significant supply chain risks and personnel changes within its procurement team [8]. Group 3: Broader Market Implications - The demand for larger memory capacities is increasing as the concept of "AI PCs" emerges, with 32GB or 64GB becoming the new standard for running large models [6]. - The price increases are not limited to memory; hard drive prices have also surged, and the GPU market is experiencing extreme price inflation, with second-hand RTX 4090 cards priced around 20,000 [6]. - The memory price hikes are affecting not only consumers but also tech companies, with reports of layoffs due to supply chain issues [6][9]. Group 4: Innovations in Memory Technology - Groq, an AI chip startup, has developed a chip design that integrates SRAM directly, achieving a memory bandwidth of 80TB/s, which is over 20 times that of traditional HBM solutions [11]. - The acquisition of Groq by NVIDIA may be a strategic move to mitigate the impact of rising DRAM prices and explore new memory technology paths [12]. - There are differing opinions on the feasibility of using SRAM as the main memory, given its high cost and integration challenges with existing chip designs [14].

Core Insights - Lenovo's ThinkPad brand continues to innovate with the introduction of AI PCs, emphasizing a user-centered design approach that has been consistent throughout its history [1][2] Group 1: Product Innovations - The 2025 ThinkPad event showcased the integration of AI technology into productivity tools, highlighting the ThinkPad AI PC's role in enhancing efficiency [1] - In 2025, ThinkPad has launched 28 new AI PC models, with AI PCs now accounting for over 50% of total sales [2] - Lenovo introduced the world's first legal AI PC in July 2023, focusing on five professional fields and partnering with 85 leading ecosystem partners [2] Group 2: Strategic Partnerships - Intel has been a long-term partner of ThinkPad for 33 years, emphasizing a collaborative journey based on trust and innovation [2] - Intel plans to release the third-generation Core Ultra processor at CES next month, which is expected to significantly enhance the computational power of AI PCs [2] Group 3: AI Integration in Sports - Lenovo, as the official technology partner for the 2026 FIFA World Cup, launched the Lenovo Tianxi AI Football Intelligent Agent, designed to enhance the viewing experience for global audiences [3] - The AI Football Intelligent Agent features capabilities such as memory, full-cycle engagement, and tactical analysis, transforming the way fans interact with the sport [3]

Core Insights - Infplane Computing held a technology and product launch event on December 19, introducing its foundational technology products, including the KLEENE motherboard control technology and AI inference acceleration technology combined with SSDs [1][2]. Group 1: KLEENE Technology - The KLEENE technology focuses on the underlying control layer of computers, optimizing power consumption, performance, and workload distribution without altering hardware design or software compatibility [1]. - The CTO emphasized that as AI moves into inference and engineering phases, computational power is becoming a new foundational resource, with system-level scheduling and energy efficiency management being critical for user experience [1]. Group 2: Hilbert Product Launch - Infplane Computing launched its first product in the "desktop supercomputer" series, the Infplane Personal Workstation: Hilbert, developed in collaboration with AMD and other partners [2]. - Hilbert aims to bring server-level computing capabilities to personal desktop environments, supporting local large model inference, scientific computing, and generative AI workflows, while also functioning as a high-performance gaming machine [2]. - The product is set to launch in North America in 2026, with a second-generation product expected to integrate workstation, NAS, gateway, and gaming capabilities [2]. Group 3: AI PC Collaboration - The CEO discussed advancements in AI PC collaboration, highlighting the need for system-level hardware and software synergy to redefine personal computer capabilities as large models transition from cloud to local environments [3]. - Infplane Computing is collaborating with Mechanical Revolution to explore new AI PC product forms based on KLEENE technology, aiming for stable and efficient operation of multimodal applications on personal devices [3]. - The company is also working on integrated terminal forms that enhance computing and storage collaboration, addressing the challenges posed by growing model sizes and rising memory costs [3].

来源：新浪证券-红岸工作室 12月22日，神州数码跌0.18%，成交额5.32亿元，换手率2.31%，总市值273.39亿元。 异动分析 AI PC+英伟达概念+液冷服务器+物联网+网络安全 1、2025年9月1日互动易：日前公司联合京东推出"灵觅"品牌AIPC，计划于近期上架销售。 2、2023年5月17日互动易回复：公司是英特尔、英伟达的分销合作伙伴。 3、2023年5月22日互动易：公司目前正在进行液冷整机柜产品的需求设计和开发。目前液冷共有两种主 流的技术方案，分别是浸没方案和冷板方案，分别适用于不同的数据中心场景，公司当前规划的液冷整 机柜产品会基于冷板开发。 4、公司是目前国内唯一同时获得AWS、Azure、阿里云国内最高等级合作伙伴身份的公司，也是首批 通过Oracle Cloud MSP认证的大中华区合作伙伴及华为战略合作伙伴；同时，以Salesforce、SAP、 Oracle、MS Office365为主力，公司构建起汇聚120余种主流云应用SaaS资源、500余家云生态合作伙伴 资源的云资源池。最广泛的云资源确保公司能提供满足多种行业和不同应用场景、个性化和多元化的云 服务。 区间今日近 ...

Core Insights - Infplane Computing has launched a series of foundational technology products, including the KLEENE motherboard control technology and AI inference acceleration technology combined with SSDs, aimed at enhancing computing capabilities in personal desktop environments [1][2] Group 1: KLEENE Technology - The KLEENE technology focuses on the underlying control layer of computers, optimizing power consumption, performance, and workload distribution without altering hardware design or software compatibility [1] - The CTO emphasized that as AI moves into inference and engineering phases, computational power is becoming a new foundational resource, with system-level scheduling and energy efficiency management being critical for user experience [1] Group 2: Hilbert Workstation - The first product from the "desktop supercomputing" series, named Hilbert, is designed to bring server-level computing capabilities to personal desktops, supporting local large model inference, scientific computing, and generative AI workflows [2] - Hilbert will launch in North America in 2026, serving as a precursor to a second-generation product based on the AMD platform, which will integrate workstation, NAS, gateway, and gaming console functionalities [2] - The product emphasizes stability, reproducibility, and long-term user experience over single performance metrics [2] Group 3: AI PC Collaboration - The CEO highlighted the collaboration with Mechanical Revolution to explore AI PC capabilities, focusing on system-level hardware and software synergy for stable and efficient operation of multimodal applications on personal devices [3] - The company is advancing integrated terminal development that combines computing and storage, addressing the challenges posed by growing model sizes and rising memory costs [3] - Ongoing technical reserves are being developed in areas such as efficient offloading for large model inference and SSD control protocols, with plans to disclose details of the next-generation products in the future [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Chengfei concept stock increased by 1.59%, ranking 8th among concept sectors, with 28 stocks rising and notable gains from Beimo Gaoke, Guanglian Aviation, and Zhonghang Heavy Industry [1][5]. Market Performance - The Chengfei concept sector saw a net inflow of 348 million yuan, with 22 stocks receiving net inflows, and 6 stocks exceeding 50 million yuan in net inflow [2][6]. - The top net inflow stock was Zhonghang Heavy Industry, with a net inflow of 423 million yuan, followed by Huali Chuangtong and Beimo Gaoke [2][6]. Stock Performance - Notable gainers included Beimo Gaoke (10.01%), Guanglian Aviation (8.50%), and Zhonghang Heavy Industry (6.68%) [3][8]. - The stocks with the highest net inflow ratios were Beimo Gaoke (21.95%), *ST Zhisheng (17.45%), and Zhonghang Heavy Industry (16.56%) [3][7]. Decliners - The stocks with the largest declines included Shenling Environment (-3.96%), Aerospace Morning Light (-3.48%), and Guolan Testing (-2.31%) [1][5].