Core Viewpoint - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China emphasizes the construction of a strong domestic market and the acceleration of a new development pattern, focusing on expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption and investment [1] Group 1: Investment Strategy - The session highlights the importance of combining investment in physical assets and human capital, reflecting a people-centered approach and prioritizing public and private investment in both urban and rural consumption [2] - The "three drivers" of economic growth—consumption, investment, and exports—are all crucial, with a greater emphasis on the structure of investment and human capital in the future [2] Group 2: Demand and Supply Dynamics - The shift from supply-led to demand-led growth indicates a focus on high-quality development, emphasizing the need to identify potential consumer demands and effective investments to avoid wasteful production [3] - The session also stresses that new supply should create new demand, indicating a more scientific understanding of the relationship between supply and demand [3] Group 3: Market Integration - The transition from "accelerating the removal" to "resolutely breaking through" obstacles in building a unified national market signals a commitment to enhancing the socialist market economy and addressing regional barriers [4] - A high-level socialist market economy should avoid fragmentation and promote seamless trade and commerce across regions, which is essential for the unified market [4] Group 4: Interaction Between Consumption and Investment - The interaction between consumption and investment is crucial, where consumption drives investment and vice versa, leading to effective demand and supply [6] - Achieving this interaction requires addressing the issue of proactivity, ensuring that production aligns with consumer needs rather than the other way around, fostering a collaborative ecosystem [6]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of adaptability in the face of global uncertainties, highlighting the need for proactive policy-making during the "Fifteen Five" period from 2026 to 2030 [2] - It identifies key areas of focus for the upcoming period, including technological self-reliance, high-level openness, regional development, and national defense [2] Group 1: Technological Development - The report states that China aims to significantly enhance its level of technological self-reliance, which is seen as a strategic support for national development [2] - It mentions the six key future manufacturing directions outlined by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, including future materials and future health [2] Group 2: Economic Policy and Openness - The report discusses the acceleration of high-level openness, emphasizing the importance of maintaining a multilateral trade system and expanding international cooperation [2] - It highlights the need for a strong domestic market and improved income distribution to support economic growth [2] Group 3: Regional Development and Coordination - The report connects regional development strategies with anti-involution policies, focusing on optimizing productivity layout and enhancing regional growth [2] - It stresses the importance of combining investments in goods and people to create new demand and supply [2] Group 4: National Defense and Security - The report outlines the government's commitment to strengthening national defense through various initiatives, including the construction of a strong manufacturing base and high-level technological self-reliance [2] - It emphasizes the need for a comprehensive approach to national security, integrating defense with economic and social development [2] Group 5: Market Implications - The long-term significance of the "Fifteen Five" policy layout is highlighted, suggesting that it provides a clearer path for China's economic transformation [2] - The report indicates that the capital market may respond positively to the structured description of transformation paths, particularly in sectors like manufacturing and consumption services [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China will be held from October 20 to 23, 2025, in Beijing, focusing on building a strong domestic market and accelerating the construction of a new development pattern [1] Group 1: Economic Strategy - The meeting emphasizes the strategic basis of expanding domestic demand, integrating the improvement of people's livelihoods and consumption with investment in goods and people [1] - It advocates for new demand to lead new supply, and new supply to create new demand, promoting a positive interaction between consumption, investment, supply, and demand [1] Group 2: Market Development - There is a strong emphasis on boosting consumption and expanding effective investment, while decisively removing obstacles to the construction of a unified national market [1] - The goal is to enhance the endogenous power and reliability of the domestic circulation [1]

Core Viewpoint - The key task for China's economic development is to optimize the fiscal expenditure structure, emphasizing investment in the livelihood sector rather than over-concentrating funds on housing and infrastructure [3][5]. Economic Growth - In the first three quarters of the year, China's GDP grew by 5.2% year-on-year, with quarterly growth rates of 5.4%, 5.2%, and 4.8% respectively [2]. Fiscal Policy - The current fiscal policy should gradually shift towards increasing the proportion of final consumption in GDP from approximately 55% to at least 65% [3]. - The adjustment in fiscal expenditure is expected to take three to five years to achieve sustainable economic development [3]. Livelihood Investment - There is a need for direct financial support to the public, such as issuing consumption vouchers, while ensuring that funds reach those in need [6]. - The relationship between improving livelihoods and economic development is crucial, as economic growth should fundamentally meet the real needs of the people [6]. Employment and Income - Measures should be taken to narrow the income gap and improve the income levels of low-income groups, with a focus on creating more job opportunities [7]. - Local governments should prioritize stabilizing and expanding employment based on their specific circumstances [10]. Social Security - There is a general issue of low social security levels and significant funding gaps across the country, necessitating increased fiscal investment in social security [13]. - The government should ensure strict compliance with social insurance contributions to enhance social security coverage [13]. Market Dynamics - The construction of a unified national market requires accurate understanding of market dynamics, including identifying surplus and shortage areas [14]. - The focus should be on combating unfair competition while protecting legitimate competition [14][15]. Corporate Support - Policy resources should be directed towards enterprises with market demand, particularly labor-intensive industries, to boost employment [15]. - Companies facing sales difficulties due to lack of innovation should be allowed to exit the market if they do not reform [16].

Core Points - The newly revised Anti-Unfair Competition Law officially takes effect on October 15, aiming to enhance market competition rules and optimize the business environment [1][3] - The law targets "involutionary" competition, particularly in the platform economy, to promote healthy market practices and prevent low-quality competition [2][4] - It emphasizes the protection of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) against unfair practices by larger companies, ensuring fair competition opportunities [4][5] Group 1: Market Competition and Regulation - The revised law establishes a fair competition review system to ensure all types of operators can participate fairly in the market [2][3] - It strengthens regulations against practices such as forced low-price sales by platform operators, which disrupt market order [2][4] - The law aims to break down industry barriers and market entry restrictions, fostering a more vibrant market environment [3] Group 2: Protection of SMEs - The law prohibits large enterprises from abusing their advantages to impose unreasonable payment terms on SMEs, addressing the imbalance in competition [4][5] - It provides specific protections for SMEs to counteract disadvantages arising from resource and capability disparities [4][5] - The focus on SME rights aligns with broader economic policies to promote fair market participation [4][5] Group 3: Digital Economy and New Regulations - The law addresses challenges in regulating unfair competition in the digital market, reflecting the rapid development of the digital economy [6][7] - New provisions include prohibiting improper data usage and malicious transactions in the online space, enhancing regulatory precision [7] - The revisions aim to adapt to innovative competition methods emerging from new technologies and business models [6][7]

Group 1: Consumer Price Index (CPI) Insights - In September, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.1% month-on-month but decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, with the core CPI (excluding food and energy) rising by 1.0%, marking the fifth consecutive month of growth [1][2] - Food prices rose by 0.7% month-on-month, contributing approximately 0.13 percentage points to the CPI increase, while clothing prices increased by 0.8% due to seasonal changes [1] - Service prices declined by 0.3%, with significant drops in airfare, hotel accommodation, and tourism prices, collectively impacting the CPI by approximately 0.17 percentage points [1] Group 2: Producer Price Index (PPI) Insights - The Producer Price Index (PPI) remained flat month-on-month and decreased by 2.3% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month [2][3] - The PPI's year-on-year decline was influenced by a lower comparison base from the previous year and the positive effects of macroeconomic policies, leading to price stabilization in certain industries [3] - Improvements in supply-demand structures and the impact of international oil price fluctuations contributed to the PPI trends, with coal processing prices rising by 3.8% month-on-month [2][3]

所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2025-10-20 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 期货研究 1 2025-10-20 党的二十届四中全会今日召开 观点分享： 中国共产党第二十届中央委员会第四次全体会议于 10 月 20 日至 23 日在北京召开。主 要议程包括：中共中央政治局向中央委员会报告工作，研究关于制定国民经济和社会发展第 十五个五年规划的建议；会议分析研究当前经济形势，部署下半年经济工作。基于《二〇三 五年远景目标》所提出的用"三个五年"基本实现社会主义现代化，"十五五"是承上启下 的关键五年。民生证券表示，即将传递出的重大信号包括，一是发挥集中力量办大事的制度 优势，在激烈国际竞争中赢得战略主动；二是强国建设系统推进，金融强国建设有望作为科 技和制造业强国的协同战略加快推进；三是把因地制宜发展生产力放在更加突出的战略位置； 四是扩大内需更加强调保障和改善民生，提升消费率迎来综合施策；五是纵深推进全国统一 大市场建设。 | 所 | 长 | 首 | 推 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 关注指数 | | | 板块 | | ★★★★ | | | 期指 | | 期指：短线或反弹 ...

Core Insights - The National Bureau of Statistics spokesperson highlighted the progress in deepening reform and opening up during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, emphasizing the shift towards a unified national market and the reduction of market access negative list items from 123 in 2020 to 106 by 2025 [1] - Domestic demand has solidified its position as the main driver of economic growth, contributing an average of 86.8% to economic growth from 2021 to 2024, with final consumption expenditure's contribution increasing by 11.1 percentage points compared to the 13th Five-Year Plan period [1] - China's status as the largest goods trading nation remains strong, with the scale of goods trade projected to grow from 32.2 trillion yuan in 2020 to 43.8 trillion yuan by 2024, reflecting an annual growth rate of 8.0% [1] - The expansion of institutional opening-up is evident, with the total number of free trade pilot zones reaching 22 during the 14th Five-Year Plan, resulting in nearly 200 institutional innovation achievements [1]

Core Viewpoint - The focus of China's economic development is shifting towards expanding domestic demand, improving market competition order, and accelerating the flow of goods, personnel, and capital [1] Economic Performance - In the first three quarters of this year, the turnover of goods and passengers increased by 4.8% and 4.4% year-on-year, respectively [1] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) has seen a narrowing decline for two consecutive months [1] - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) reported a supplier delivery time index of 50.8%, which is an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month and has risen for four consecutive months [1] Capital Market Activity - The stock trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets increased by 106.8% year-on-year in the first three quarters, which is beneficial for boosting social confidence [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The effect of anti-involution is minimal, and the year-on-year growth rates of PPI and M1 are rising due to low bases. The economic data in October is crucial. Exports maintained resilience in September, but the growth rate is expected to decline significantly in Q4. The central government has allocated 500 billion yuan to local governments, and the economic growth rate is expected to pick up in Q4 [1]. - The Fourth Plenary Session is expected to focus on emerging technology, supply chain security, and economic restructuring. The "15th Five-Year Plan" will provide specific policy measures. Sino-US relations are at a critical juncture, and the market may be hit if the leaders do not meet in late October or early November [2]. - The sales area of new homes in 30 large and medium-sized cities has seasonally rebounded but is still far below the historical level. The housing market remains pessimistic. The bond market is expected to be volatile and bullish, with the stock market being the main risk [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Next Week's Key Focus: The Fourth Plenary Session and Sino-US Relations (1) Anti-involution Effect is Minimal, and the Domestic Economy Remains Sluggish - Exports grew by 8.3% year-on-year in September, continuing to show resilience. However, the growth rate is expected to decline in Q4 due to the high base. High-frequency data shows that exports in October may be lower than in September [12]. - The effect of anti-involution is minimal, as shown by the PPI. The year-on-year growth rate of PPI has been rising for five months, mainly due to the low base. The economic data in October is crucial [14]. - The year-on-year growth rate of M1 is also affected by the low base. The domestic economy remains weak, as shown by the social financing and credit data. The government has allocated 500 billion yuan to local governments, and the economic growth rate is expected to pick up in Q4 [17]. (2) The 15th Five-Year Plan and Sino-US Relations - The Fourth Plenary Session is expected to focus on emerging technology, supply chain security, and economic restructuring. The "15th Five-Year Plan" will provide specific policy measures [21]. - Sino-US relations are at a critical juncture, with the leaders expected to meet during the APEC Summit in late October or early November. The market may be hit if the leaders do not meet and the US imposes 100% tariffs. China will implement new rare earth export control measures on December 1 [21]. 2. Real Estate Market Tracking: New Home Sales are Far Below the Seasonal Level - The sales area of new homes in 30 large and medium-sized cities has seasonally rebounded but is still far below the historical level. First-tier cities are weak, second-tier cities are similar to last year, and third-tier cities are higher than in 2023 [3]. - The listing price index of second-hand homes has continued to decline, with the decline accelerating in second- and third-tier cities. The overall trend of the real estate market remains pessimistic [3]. 3. Treasury Bonds: Continue to Run Strongly - The bond market has been volatile this week, with the Sino-US confrontation increasing market risk aversion and benefiting the bond market. The bond market is expected to be volatile and bullish, with the stock market being the main risk [34].