Core Viewpoint - The Chinese economy showed resilience in the first half of the year, with a GDP growth of 5.3%, exceeding initial market expectations, and demonstrating strong internal demand as the main driver of growth [3][4]. Economic Performance - Major macroeconomic indicators performed well, with GDP growth of 5.3% year-on-year, which is 0.3 percentage points higher than the same period last year [3]. - The production and business activity expectation index for July was 52.6, indicating stable optimism among manufacturing enterprises [3]. - The urban unemployment rate averaged 5.2%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the first quarter, with 6.95 million new urban jobs created, achieving 58% of the annual target [3]. Internal Demand and Trade - Internal demand contributed 68.8% to economic growth, showcasing its role as the main growth driver [3]. - The total import and export volume reached 20 trillion yuan, with exports growing by 7.2% [3]. - The value added of the equipment manufacturing industry increased by 10.2%, indicating its continued importance [3]. New Growth Drivers - High-tech manufacturing value added grew by 9.5%, outpacing overall industrial growth by 3.1 percentage points [4]. - Emerging industries such as artificial intelligence and smart manufacturing are rapidly developing [4]. Policy Measures - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) plans to implement policies to expand domestic demand and promote high-level technological self-reliance [4][10]. - There will be a focus on enhancing economic monitoring and timely policy adjustments to stabilize employment, businesses, and market expectations [4]. Market Integration - The construction of a unified national market is emphasized, with inter-provincial trade sales accounting for 40.4% of total sales, an increase of 0.6 percentage points year-on-year [8]. - The ratio of social logistics costs to GDP has decreased, indicating improved efficiency in logistics [8]. Reform Initiatives - The NDRC aims to deepen reforms to stimulate consumption and investment, including measures to enhance the competitiveness of state-owned enterprises and promote private investment in key sectors [10][11]. - There is a focus on addressing issues of disorderly competition and market disarray through regulatory measures [11][12].

Economic Performance - In the first half of the year, China's GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year, with domestic demand contributing 68.8% to economic growth and total imports and exports exceeding 20 trillion yuan [2][3] - Employment, prices, and residents' income remained stable overall, indicating strong economic resilience [2] Policy Implementation - The government plans to continue implementing policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and stabilizing employment and the economy, ensuring policy continuity and flexibility [3][5] - There will be a focus on enhancing economic monitoring and forecasting, as well as developing a comprehensive toolbox for policies aimed at stabilizing employment and expanding domestic demand [3] Market Development - The construction of a unified national market has made significant progress, with a 18.2% year-on-year increase in cross-regional electricity transactions in the first half of the year [4] - The proportion of inter-provincial trade sales accounted for 40.4% of total sales revenue, an increase of 0.6 percentage points compared to the same period last year [4] Consumer Trends - Social retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5% in the first half of the year, with notable growth in specific sectors such as home appliances and new energy vehicles, which saw increases of 30.7% and 40.3% respectively [5] - The government aims to enhance consumer capacity and promote new growth points in service consumption, while also implementing measures to reduce consumption restrictions [5] Energy Supply - The national electricity supply remains stable, with measures in place to ensure adequate energy supply during peak summer demand [6] - The government will focus on securing energy supply, enhancing peak capacity, optimizing demand-side management, and strengthening emergency response [6] Reform Initiatives - The government is accelerating the implementation of key reform measures to drive high-quality development and address economic challenges [7][8] - Reforms will focus on expanding domestic demand, addressing prominent economic issues, and fostering new growth drivers through improved market access and regulatory frameworks [8]

Economic Performance - In the first half of the year, China's GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year, an increase of 0.3 percentage points compared to the same period last year and the entire previous year [1] - Domestic demand contributed 68.8% to economic growth, continuing to be the main driving force [1] - The import and export scale reached 20 trillion yuan, demonstrating strong resilience in foreign trade [1] New Economic Drivers - New economic drivers such as artificial intelligence, domestic processors, and innovative pharmaceuticals are rapidly developing [2] - Emerging industries like smart drones, smart vehicle equipment, and integrated circuit manufacturing are thriving, showcasing strong creativity [2] Consumption Trends - Social retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5% in the first half of the year, with a growth rate 0.4 percentage points higher than the first quarter [5] - Notable growth in retail sales of home appliances and communication equipment, with increases of 30.7% and 24.1% respectively [5] - New energy vehicle sales surged by 40.3% year-on-year [5] Policy Measures - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has fully allocated an 800 billion yuan project list for "two heavy" construction projects [6] - A total of 735 billion yuan in central budget investment has been largely disbursed, with plans for further funding to support consumption [6][7] - The NDRC aims to enhance consumer capacity and promote steady income growth through various measures [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese economy has shown resilience and performed better than expected in the first half of the year, with a GDP growth of 5.3% year-on-year, indicating a solid foundation for achieving annual economic and social development goals [2][3]. Economic Performance - Major macroeconomic indicators have performed well, with GDP growth of 5.3% in the first half, surpassing initial market expectations and improving by 0.3 percentage points compared to the same period last year [2]. - The production and business activity expectation index for July stood at 52.6%, indicating stable optimism among manufacturing enterprises [2]. - The urban unemployment rate averaged 5.2%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the first quarter, with 6.95 million new urban jobs created, achieving 58% of the annual target [2]. Domestic Demand and Trade - Domestic demand has been the main driver of economic growth, contributing 68.8% to the overall growth [2]. - The import and export scale reached 20 trillion yuan, with exports growing by 7.2% [2]. - The value added of the equipment manufacturing industry increased by 10.2%, while the information transmission, software, and IT services sector grew by 11.1% [2]. New Growth Drivers - High-tech manufacturing value added grew by 9.5%, outpacing the overall industrial growth by 3.1 percentage points [3]. - Emerging industries such as AI, innovative pharmaceuticals, and smart manufacturing are rapidly developing [3]. Policy Focus - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) plans to continue implementing policies to expand domestic demand and promote high-level technological self-reliance [3][4]. - There will be a focus on enhancing economic monitoring and forecasting, improving policies to stabilize employment and market expectations, and ensuring a reasonable recovery in price levels [3]. Market Integration - The construction of a unified national market is being advanced, with inter-provincial trade sales accounting for 40.4% of total sales revenue, an increase of 0.6 percentage points year-on-year [7]. - The ratio of social logistics costs to GDP has decreased, saving over 130 billion yuan in logistics expenses [7]. Reform Initiatives - The NDRC emphasizes the need for deepening reforms to stimulate consumption and investment, particularly in the service sector and digital economy [9][10]. - Measures will be taken to regulate government investment behaviors and address issues of disorderly competition in various industries [10][11].

以消费和投资扩内需，让国内大循环"大"起来。"两新"政策加力扩围，带旺市场；服务消费、首发经济 等新增长点，燃起消费热情。"两重"建设扎实推进，把项目建设和民生保障结合起来，扩大有效投资。 打通市场堵点和卡点，让国内大循环"转"起来。整治"内卷式"竞争，企业利润有保障；规范政府招商引 资行为，企业竞争站在同一"起跑线"。企业好，就业好，消费才能好。而要扩大投资，也离不开企业， 特别要激发民间投资动力和活力，把好项目推介给民企，才能形成合力。 破除壁垒、统一规则，让更多人共享发展成果，中国经济就能抵御风险、破浪向前。 （文章来源：人民日报） 上半年，我国国内生产总值同比增长5.3%，为实现全年经济社会发展目标任务奠定了基础。 这一成绩是在顶住外部压力、消化累积风险的过程中取得的，来之不易。当前我国经济运行依然面临不 少风险挑战，要把稳中向好的趋势延续好，就要纵深推进全国统一大市场建设，做强国内大循环。 ...

Economic Performance - In the first half of the year, China's economy showed steady progress and performed better than expected despite complex internal and external environments, with multiple key indicators reflecting positive outcomes [1] - The total investment for the "two heavy" construction projects has been fully allocated at 800 billion, and the central budget investment of 735 billion has been largely disbursed [1] Policy Measures - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) will continue to utilize its policy toolbox to stabilize employment and expand domestic demand, aiming for a reasonable recovery in prices, stable employment, and optimized economic growth [2] - The NDRC plans to implement measures to promote service consumption, emerging economies, and digital consumption to further unleash consumption potential [2] Market Dynamics - The NDRC is addressing issues of "involution," disorderly competition, and market disarray in various industries, which will be a focus for governance in the second half of the year [2] - The NDRC is revising the pricing law as part of efforts to combat "involution" and ensure sustainable development across multiple industries [3] Trade and Market Integration - From January to April, inter-provincial trade sales accounted for 40.4% of total sales revenue, an increase of 0.6 percentage points year-on-year, indicating a trend of reduced market transaction costs and improved factor mobility [3] - The NDRC is developing an action plan to advance the construction of a unified national market, focusing on the unification of systems related to property rights, market access, fair competition, social credit, and quality standards [3] Energy Sector Developments - The NDRC is working on the construction of a unified national electricity market, which is crucial for ensuring energy security, low-carbon transition, and economic growth [4] - The electricity market barriers are gradually being eliminated, with cross-grid trading mechanisms being established, which aids in precise price discovery and effective supply-demand regulation [4] Innovation and Technology - The NDRC plans to implement the "Artificial Intelligence +" initiative to promote large-scale commercial applications of AI, optimize the innovation ecosystem, and enhance policy support in areas such as computing power, algorithms, data, and talent [5]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 前期利好兑现，煤焦持续回落 核心观点 焦炭：根据钢联统计，截至 8 月 1 日当周，独立焦化厂和钢厂焦化厂日均 焦炭产量合计 111.78 万吨，周环比基本持平；247 家钢厂铁水日均产量 240.71 万吨，周环比下降 1.52 万吨，但仍维持在 240 万吨/天的水平上 方。本周，247 家钢厂盈利率 65.37%，即接近 2/3 的钢厂处于盈利状态， 当前虽是传统施工淡季，但焦炭需求季节性走弱的幅度有限。另外，统计 局公布 7 月制造业 PMI 为 49.3%，较上月下降 0.4 个百分点，制造业景气 度有所回落。7 月 30 日，中共中央政治局会议召开，政策强预期兑现，市 场乐观情绪迎来阶段性回调。整体来看，焦炭基本面变化不大，消息面扰 动暂告一段落，市场观望情绪增加，焦炭期货短期内或维持宽幅震荡运 行，后续市场关注点预计将逐渐回归焦煤的实际供应。 焦煤：根据钢联统计，截至 8 月 1 日当周，523 家炼焦煤矿精煤日均产量 77.7 万吨，周环比持平，同比去年偏高 0.6 万吨，月末煤矿完成生产目 标后产量阶段性下降，进入 8 月后会陆续恢复。进口 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2025 年 8 月 1 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 弱势情绪未退，钢矿高位调整 核心观点 螺纹钢：主力期价弱势震荡，录得 1.23%日跌幅，量仓收缩。现阶段， 供需双弱局面下螺纹基本面表现偏弱，叠加市场情绪不佳，钢价易承压 偏弱运行，但低库存格局下产业矛盾不大，下行空间会受限，多空因素 博弈下预计钢价维持弱势震荡态势，关注钢厂生产情况。 热轧卷板：主力期价弱势震荡，录得 0.58%日跌幅，量缩仓增。目前来 看，乐观情绪消退，钢市运行重回产业端，供需双增局面下热卷基本面 在走弱，库存持续增加，叠加原料下行拖累，利空因素发酵，预计热卷 价格承压弱势下行，关注海外风险情况。 铁矿石：主力期价震荡运行，录得 0.19%日跌幅，量仓收缩。现阶 段，矿石需求韧性尚可，给予矿价支撑，但矿石供应在回升，而需求表 现偏弱，供增需稳局面下矿市基本面在走弱，叠加市场情绪不佳，预计 矿价延续高位震荡整理态势，关注成材走势情况。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z ...

Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) emphasizes the need to prevent blind following and chaotic competition in emerging sectors while addressing low-level, homogeneous construction in traditional sectors to avoid "involution" competition [2][3][4]. Group 1: Economic Policy and Competition - The NDRC is committed to stopping blind following and chaotic competition in emerging fields, while also preventing low-level, homogeneous construction in traditional sectors [2][4]. - The NDRC has established a mechanism for regular communication with private enterprises, addressing concerns about "involution" competition and taking measures such as revising laws and enhancing industry self-discipline [2][3]. - The NDRC aims to combine effective market mechanisms with proactive government actions to optimize market competition order and prevent disorderly competition [3][4]. Group 2: Industry Insights and Challenges - The phenomenon of "blind following" in emerging sectors is attributed to multiple economic factors, including the uncertainty of technology routes and market prospects, which allows for speculative capital investments [4]. - Local governments often simplify policies to focus on "investment quantity assessments," leading to multiple similar projects in the same region, reflecting a lack of precise evaluation of industrial rules and regional capacity [4]. - The NDRC's approach aims to guide the market back to an "innovation-driven" essence, avoiding the vicious cycle of low-level repeated construction in emerging industries [5].

中共中央政治局7月30日召开会议，提出纵深推进全国统一大市场建设，推动市场竞争秩序持续优化， 依法依规治理企业无序竞争。同时提出深入实施提振消费专项行动，在扩大商品消费的同时，培育服务 消费新的增长点。 二是规范企业行为。在供过于求背景下，企业为保存市场份额或击垮对手，会采取价格战、虚假宣传、 侵犯商业秘密等违反公平竞争的市场行为，需规范企业行为，使其经营符合公司法和公平竞争的原则与 要求。 在规范企业行为过程中，还需加强政府监管，尤其是有力有效的市场监管，确保企业行为在法治轨道内 运行；同时发挥行业协会作用，通过行业协会约束行业内企业行为，确保其合法合规经营。 如何有力提振消费？ 如何破除内卷？ 内卷式竞争体现为低价无效无序竞争，不利于行业健康可持续和高质量发展。而反内卷关键在于构建公 平的竞争环境，其中全国统一大市场建设至关重要。 通过全国统一大市场建设，推动形成公平竞争格局，打破地方保护和市场壁垒，保证商品和要素在全国 更大范围内顺畅流通交换，实现资源要素的优化配置。 同时，这也有利于通过市场倒逼机制，形成优胜劣汰的竞争环境，促使低效无效产能退出，让优质高效 产能更好发展，形成对优秀企业的正向激励和导向 ...