铜金属行业研究报告 2025 年 05 月 06 日 [Table_Title] 供给受限需求持续提升，或支撑铜价长期上行 ——铜金属行业研究报告 [Table_Summary] 报告要点： [Table_Main] 行业研究|有色金属|铜 证券研究报告 铜应用领域广泛，近年已成为多国争夺的战略性矿产资源之一 铜具有优良的延展性、导热性、导电性和耐腐蚀能力，被广泛应用于 电气、机械制造、建筑工业、交通运输等领域，在金属材料的消费中 仅次于钢铁和铝。近年来，铜在战略性新兴产业有较广泛的应用，成 为欧美等国家高度关注和争夺的战略性矿产资源之一。中国作为全球 第四大铜生产国和最大的铜消费国，近年来国内产量增长有限，国内 铜产量远不能满足需求，对外依存度持续攀升并达到 80%以上，未来 也将是我国争夺的重要战略性矿产资源之一。 供给端：全球铜矿供应增长受限，我国主导全球铜冶炼产能 2014-2019 年，全球铜储量从约 7 亿吨增长至 8.7 亿吨，年均复合增 长率约 4.4%。2020-2024 年，受全球新增铜矿减少等原因，全球储量 增速明显放缓，且在 2024 年储量有所下降，仅为 98000 万吨，同比 下降 ...

除此之外，独石化以"经营精打细算、生产深耕细作、管理精雕细刻、技术精益求精"的"四精"理念为引 领，深化"六优化一控制"生产经营策略，在保持装置稳产高产的同时，动态调整产品结构，紧密衔接产 销链条，系统推进生产优化与降本控费。通过RTO(实时在线优化系统)信息化手段精准调控裂解深度、 强化原料优化控制，为乙烯、丙烯等关键产品增产提供坚实保障，两套乙烯装置日产量连续6个月保持 4000吨以上，创历史新高。独石化创新构建了生产异常标准管控体系，形成"监测—预警—处置"的闭环 管理机制，生产波动频次同比下降33.3%。聚丙烯、丁苯橡胶、全密度聚乙烯等关键装置的单耗达近三 年同期最优。该公司还投用污水回用率智能监控，减少污水产生量、回用量，优化氮气系统运行方式， 降低氮气系统动力消耗，优化减压深拔力度，降低石油焦收率，一季度蒸汽、新水单耗降幅超10%。 在"向管理要效益"的同时，独石化坚持创新驱动，把科技创新作为效益增长的重要引擎。2024年，在国 内首次用气相法工艺生产出聚烯烃弹性体(POE)，并实现量产。今年以来，独山子石化紧抓市场契机， 优化产品结构，强化产品推介服务，增产增销POE、锂电池隔膜料、电容膜料、溶 ...

21世纪资管研究院 "2025资产管理年会"即将举办！ "资产管理年会"由南方财经全媒体集团指导、21世纪报系主办，始于2007年，今年即将迎来其第十九届 年会。年会聚焦大资管行业发展趋势，持续邀请来自国家金融监管部门、专业学术部门、重要金融机构 等的资管领军者和精英人士，探讨行业最前沿的话题，共建大资管发展之道。 本届年会将于8月盛夏在上海隆重召开，将围绕大类资产配置、AI大模型、绿色转型、养老金融、ETF 被动投资等当下重要议题展开。在此之前，我们还将发起2025年资管30人和大财富系列专访对话，在广 泛调研和研究的基础上编撰《2025中国资产管理趋势报告》并发布。 与此同时，为了探索资管行业内在发展及创新逻辑，发掘中国资产管理行业的成长法则与未来趋势，并 给投资者清晰展示财富管理市场格局，寻找优秀投资机构与产品，往年的「金贝」资产管理竞争力案例 研究中，我们基于评价模型，综合"定量+定性"的评价方式，组建权威专家评审，对市场主要金融机构 及各类产品进行分析和评价，并在不同维度项下筛选出表现优异者，予以展示、传播。 2025年「金贝」资产管理竞争力案例研究在往年基础上进一步升级，机构类案例中新增"五篇大文 ...

Core Viewpoint - The newly revised "Interim Regulations on Express Delivery" will take effect on June 1, focusing on improving the governance of express packaging, aiming for a comprehensive governance approach involving various stakeholders [1][2]. Group 1: Strengthening Corporate Responsibility - The express delivery industry is a crucial part of modern services, with a projected business volume of 1.75 trillion pieces by 2024, maintaining its position as the world's largest for 11 consecutive years [2]. - The revised regulations emphasize the responsibility of express delivery companies in packaging governance, mandating optimization of packaging methods and structures while ensuring safety [2]. - Companies are required to establish and implement recycling management systems for packaging materials, enhancing the recycling rate [2]. Group 2: Promoting Collaborative Governance - The regulations clarify the responsibilities of various stakeholders, including government departments, express companies, industry organizations, and consumers, in the entire lifecycle of packaging [3]. - The establishment of a new governance model is anticipated, characterized by government guidance, corporate accountability, industry self-regulation, and public participation [3]. - Industry organizations are expected to play a significant role in creating green packaging innovation alliances and developing standards for sustainable packaging [3]. Group 3: Enhancing Public Participation - The regulations encourage government and media to conduct educational campaigns to raise public awareness about eco-friendly packaging [4]. - Express companies are incentivized to promote the reuse of packaging through rewards and discounts, highlighting the importance of public involvement in achieving green transformation [4]. Group 4: Improving Governance Standards - The regulations are expected to foster a positive interaction between legal frameworks and standard systems, enhancing the effectiveness of packaging governance [5][6]. - Two mandatory national standards have been established to limit excessive packaging and regulate hazardous substances in packaging materials, contributing to initial successes in packaging governance [6]. - The regulations stipulate penalties for companies that fail to comply with mandatory standards, ensuring accountability and effective implementation [6][7].

乡村会客厅，现磨咖啡热销，卖一杯村集体分红3元；中药材加工厂，切片封装忙，村民干一天能挣150 元；游乐场，游客笑语欢声，一年营业额超40万元…… 前不久，笔者走进甘肃渭源县元古堆村，从拔节生长的"新事物"中，看见乡村发展新气象。2024年，村 人均纯收入达18860元，比2021年增长近52%；村集体经济收入超120万元，是2021年的2倍多。截至目 前，在巩固拓展脱贫攻坚成果同乡村振兴有效衔接5年过渡期内，元古堆没有一人返贫，无一户"掉 队"，群众的日子越过越红火。 脱贫村推进乡村全面振兴，难度不亚于脱贫攻坚。彼时同贫困作斗争，派了"强外援"、划了"及格线"， 有托举、有目标。推进乡村全面振兴，要自己"打全场"，还没"终场哨"。如何切实做到平稳过渡、有效 衔接？"红火"的元古堆启示我们，要凭眼力、定力和执行力。 眼力过人、眼光独到，才能因地制宜。顺天时，量地利，则用力少而成功多。这需要既看得准，又看得 远。 所谓"准"，即见自己，知我之长、晓我之短，有的放矢。元古堆气候阴寒，宜种中药材，遂调整种植结 构，重点发展中药材产业，村民收入随产业发展涨了起来。所谓"远"，即见未来、见他人，胸有发展大 势，眼见他山 ...

走，去钢铁厂旅游！ 是的，你没有听错。传统印象中"傻大黑粗"的钢铁厂区，已成为风景如画的国家3A级旅游景区。春日 里，走进南京钢铁集团有限公司，蓝天白云下，绿树成荫，白鹭翩跹，清澈的湖面，倒映出彩绘的高 塔。 "现在的钢铁厂是五彩缤纷的。"在厂区晨练的退休职工陈行恺回忆，过去，钢铁厂的麻雀也是五颜六色 的，而且看颜色就知道从哪个厂区飞出来的：红色的是烧结厂、白色的是石灰厂、黑色的是原料厂…… 附近的居民不敢开窗，三天两头打电话投诉。现在，这里成了家门口的大公园。 "变形记"如何发生？生态账和经济账能否划得来？日前，记者走进南钢，探访这家企业的转型之路。 减排账—— 上马环保设备，污染物排放大幅下降 长江夹江北侧的原料码头上，一艘艘装载着铁矿石的货船从下游驶来。岸边高高的卸料门机，伸出长长 的"抓斗"不断抓取原料，送入密闭的皮带管廊。抬头看，这些蓝色的管廊像一条条"空中彩线"，另一头 连接着一座座半圆形的全封闭料仓。 "全流程封闭运输，实现了'用矿不见矿、用煤不见煤、运料不见料'。"南钢炼铁事业部安全环保处副处 长李金明介绍。过去，上百万吨的铁矿石、煤焦等原料露天堆放，像一垄一垄的山丘，风吹过扬尘漫 天，既造成 ...

Core Insights - The Chinese government emphasizes the importance of labor in achieving high-quality development and modernization, urging workers to actively participate in significant construction projects during the "May Day" holiday [1] Infrastructure Development - During the "May Day" holiday, major construction projects, including the Western Land-Sea New Corridor and the Pinglu Canal, are progressing with nearly 20,000 workers and over 4,400 machines involved [1] - The Pinglu Canal will provide the shortest and most economical route from Guangxi and Southwest China to ASEAN countries upon completion [1] - The Ningbo-Zhoushan Railway's underwater tunnel, the longest of its kind globally, is expected to be completed by 2027, significantly reducing travel time between Ningbo and Zhoushan [2] Water Conservancy Projects - The South-to-North Water Diversion Project's follow-up, the Middle Line Jiangjin Supplementary Han Project, is advancing, enhancing water distribution capabilities in the Han River basin [4] - In the first quarter, eight major water conservancy projects were initiated, with investment exceeding the same period last year [4] Energy Sector Advancements - A large-scale integrated energy project, "Long Electric into Shandong," is nearing completion, expected to deliver over 36 billion kilowatt-hours annually, with over 50% from renewable sources [5] - Wind and solar power projects are being developed faster than anticipated, with installed capacity increasing from 535 million kilowatts at the end of 2020 to 1.482 billion kilowatts by March 2025, marking a 177% growth [6] Overall Economic Impact - As of now, 99% of the 102 major projects outlined in the "14th Five-Year Plan" have met their targets, significantly supporting high-quality economic and social development [7]

Core Viewpoint - China Shipbuilding Industry Company (China Shipbuilding) reported a successful turnaround in 2024, achieving a net profit of 30.72 billion yuan, compared to a loss of 2.91 billion yuan in the previous year, driven by improved order structure and market conditions [1][2][3] Financial Performance - In 2024, China Shipbuilding achieved revenue of 78.584 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.01% [2] - The company's main business revenue reached 77.667 billion yuan, up 5.60% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 9.94%, an increase of 0.43 percentage points [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 36.14 billion yuan, compared to 29.57 billion yuan in the previous year, with a net profit of 30.72 billion yuan after excluding non-recurring gains and losses [2][3] Order and Delivery Status - As of the end of 2024, China Shipbuilding had a robust order backlog, with 322 civil ship orders totaling 216.962 billion yuan [3][4] - The company delivered 93 civil ships with a total deadweight tonnage of 721.34 thousand tons, exceeding the annual plan by 112.74% [4] - The company is also progressing with a share swap merger with China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation, pending regulatory approvals [4] Market Outlook - China Shipbuilding has set a revenue target of 80.5 billion yuan for 2025, with expectations to complete 89 civil ships and 270 repair ships [5] - The global shipbuilding market is entering a new development cycle, with China maintaining a leading position in international market share [6] - The company acknowledges potential external risks due to increasing global trade protectionism and economic instability, but sees opportunities in green ship development and technological advancements [6]

在中欧建交50周年的历史机遇下，中欧合作相向而行，合作空间广阔。一个健康稳定的中欧关系，不仅 将成就彼此，还将成为全球多边经贸体制的重要支撑。 （文章来源：经济日报） 中欧合作为彼此带来了新的经济增长机遇。在新一轮科技革命浪潮下，欧洲在金融、智能制造、医疗健 康等领域有着先进的数字化技术和应用，而中国则在大数据、电子商务、人工智能等方面走在前列，双 方通过数字化和技术合作将推动产业链快速升级。在推进绿色转型方面，中欧也能优势互补，特别是中 国在可再生能源发电、输电系统、新能源电池等方面具有技术和成本优势，双方合作将助推欧洲绿色交 通、光伏产业等迅速发展。 中欧合作更具有战略意义和世界影响。中欧经济总量占全球比例超过三分之一，双方经贸合作产生的积 极外溢效应，将有力拉动世界经济增长，也将增强彼此在全球经济治理中的话语权。前些年，中欧就曾 面对来自美国的贸易施压，并在维护世界贸易组织等多边经贸体制方面密切合作。当前，美贸易保护主 义再次冲击世界经济，国际社会期盼中欧能继续携手，推动全球经济治理朝着更加公正合理的方向发 展。 中欧近期在经贸领域密集互动，双方不仅将开展电动汽车价格承诺谈判，讨论汽车产业投资合作问题， ...

2025年4月28日中午12点30分，马德里阳光炙烤着45℃的街道，巴塞罗那的空调嗡嗡作响。 突然，西班牙国家电网负荷曲线像跳楼般直线下坠——5秒内60%的电力需求蒸发，葡萄牙紧随其后断电。 这场停电让5000万伊比利亚半岛居民瞬间跌入原始社会： 交通大动脉断裂：马德里地铁紧急疏散乘客，里斯本机场跑道指示灯熄灭，高速公路上司机用手机闪光灯指挥交通。 超市上演末日抢购：巴塞罗那的Lidl超市货架半小时被清空，民众用现金抢购瓶装水和罐头，店员举着"每人限购两瓶水"的纸牌喊到嘶哑。 医院靠柴油发电机续命：塞维利亚一家医院暂停所有非紧急手术，护士在走廊点起蜡烛核对药品清单。 讽刺的是，就在停电前12天，西班牙刚宣布实现100%可再生能源供电，欧盟官员盛赞这是"绿色转型里程碑"。 技术漏洞还是政治傲慢？深扒停电三重导火索： 1. 绿色能源的"定时炸弹"。西班牙风光发电占比达67%，但储能容量仅0.8吉瓦——相当于全境空调同时启动时的耗电量。4月28日，南部太阳 能电站因高温保护机制自动停机，电力缺口瞬间击穿电网承受极限。 2. 能源孤岛的致命伤。西葡电网仅通过3条高压线与法国互联，输送容量不足总需求的12%。当法国阿拉 ...