内容概要：铬盐是以铬酸等为核心的无机化工产品，以铬铁矿为原料，经多道工序制成，广泛应用于多 个国民经济支柱领域。中国铬盐产业链紧密且差异化明显，上游铬铁矿成本占比约30%，但国内储量稀 缺，对外依存度超95%，进口集中于南非等五国，头部企业正布局海外铬矿开发。中游正加速无钙焙烧 工艺替代，下游需求从传统领域向航空航天、新能源等高端制造领域拓展，拉动金属铬、高纯铬盐等供 需紧平衡。中国是全球最大铬盐生产消费国，产量占比45%左右，2024年市场规模达94.1亿元，预计 2030年突破150亿元。金属铬价格受高端需求拉动，2025年两轮显著上涨。未来，行业将围绕绿色转 型、需求升级与产业链整合演进，清洁工艺普及，高端产品成增长核心，头部企业缓解原料依赖，竞争 聚焦技术创新与资源掌控，整体呈现绿色化、高值化、集约化态势。 上市企业：振华股份（603067.SH）、西藏矿业（000762.SZ）、五矿发展（600058.SH）、中矿资源 （002738.SZ） 相关企业：四川省银河化学股份有限公司、中信锦州金属股份有限公司、重庆民丰化工有限责任公司、 山东朗晖石油化学股份有限公司、青海铬盐高新科技股份有限公司、内蒙古 ...

即将过去的2025年，世界经济面对美国加征关税冲击、地缘冲突持续与金融波动加剧等多重压力， 仍展现出坚韧底色，增长有望超过预期。然而，全球经济前景依然脆弱，贸易保护主义、人工智能(AI) 泡沫与债务压力如重重暗礁，随时可能阻滞复苏进程。展望2026年，世界经济需要在持续的不确定性中 寻找新平衡。 2025年，不同经济体增长呈现显著分化态势。国际货币基金组织(IMF)、世界银行、经济合作与发 展组织在各自的研究报告中不约而同地有所提及。 IMF在10月的《世界经济展望报告》中将全年经济增长预期上调至3.2%，但预计2025年美国经济增 速仅为2.0%，2026年可能进一步下滑至1.7%。欧元区与日本则面临外部需求疲软、结构改革停滞等长 期挑战，2025年增速分别维持在1.3%和1.1%的低位。 这一年，全球贸易在逆境中悄然重塑。世贸组织数据显示，2025年上半年，全球货物贸易量同比增 长4.9%，全年预期上调至2.4%。推动力不仅来自美国关税前的"囤货效应"，更得益于发展中国家间的 贸易扩张——亚洲贡献了全球贸易增量的主要份额，中国在电子产品、绿色产业等领域的出口韧性尤其 突出。 这种分化映射出全球经济格局的重 ...

Economic Overview - The global economy in 2025 is expected to show resilience despite challenges such as U.S. tariffs, ongoing geopolitical conflicts, and increased financial volatility, with growth projected to exceed expectations [1] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised its global economic growth forecast for 2025 to 3.2%, while the U.S. economy is expected to grow only 2.0% in 2025 and further decline to 1.7% in 2026 [1] - Emerging markets and developing economies are projected to be the main drivers of global growth, with a forecasted growth rate of 4.2% in 2025, particularly strong in ASEAN countries at 4.7% [1] Trade Dynamics - Global trade is undergoing a transformation, with a 4.9% year-on-year increase in global goods trade volume in the first half of 2025, and an annual forecast adjustment to 2.4% [2] - The growth in trade is attributed to both pre-tariff stockpiling in the U.S. and expanding trade among developing countries, with Asia contributing significantly to global trade growth [2] - The trade system faces deep challenges, including unilateral tariffs and geopolitical conflicts, which have created significant turmoil in the past 80 years [2] Technological and Green Transition - AI and green transitions are identified as dual driving forces for economic growth, with AI investments expected to boost global trade by 34% to 37% by 2040 [3] - However, there are risks associated with AI investments, which may resemble the internet bubble if returns do not meet expectations [3] - China's investments in renewable energy technologies have reduced global clean energy costs, with the penetration rate of new energy vehicles exceeding 50% [3] China's Economic Stability - China's GDP growth in the first three quarters of 2025 is reported at 5.2%, with the total expected to surpass 140 trillion yuan for the year, driven by consumption and manufacturing investment [4] - The country is enhancing its macroeconomic stability through policies aimed at high-level opening up and expanding cooperation, including the launch of the Hainan Free Trade Port [4] - China's focus on AI and biotechnology in its 14th Five-Year Plan is expected to provide market opportunities and technology transfer for developing countries [4] Future Outlook - The resilience of the global economy in 2025 is attributed to technological breakthroughs and the rise of emerging economies, with a need to find balance amid uncertainties in 2026 [4] - Potential market volatility may arise from trade policy disagreements, U.S. debt risks, and uncertainties in Japan's stimulus plans, but opportunities remain in AI applications and green technology [4]

Group 1: New Quality Productive Forces - In 2025, China focuses on technological innovation and industrial upgrading to cultivate new quality productive forces, enhancing the foundation for high-quality development [2] - Traditional industries are crucial for accelerating the development of new quality productive forces, with the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology releasing action plans for ten key industries [2] - Strategic emerging industries and future industries are the main battlegrounds for cultivating new quality productive forces, with significant growth in sectors like new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, and quantum technology [2][3] Group 2: Expanding Domestic Demand - Expanding domestic demand is a strategic choice for China to respond to economic changes and promote high-quality development, with policies implemented to stimulate consumption and investment [4] - Consumer markets are recovering, with significant growth in retail sales of home appliances and communication equipment, with year-on-year increases of 14.8%, 18.2%, and 20.9% respectively [6] - Investment in emerging sectors is also strong, with notable increases in manufacturing and renewable energy investments, such as a 15.3% growth in automotive manufacturing [6] Group 3: High-Level Opening Up - Expanding high-level opening up is essential for China's high-quality development, providing stability to the uncertain global economy [7] - China's foreign trade resilience is improving, with policies promoting service exports and green trade, reflecting a commitment to innovative leadership [7][8] - Trade with major partners like ASEAN has seen growth, with a year-on-year increase of 8.5% in trade volume [8] Group 4: Risk Mitigation - In 2025, China continues to address key risk areas to ensure high-quality development, with measures in place to manage local government debt and mitigate financial risks [9] - The real estate sector has seen successful completion of housing delivery tasks, with policies aimed at stabilizing the market and supporting housing supply [9] Group 5: Appropriate Monetary Easing - Since 2025, a moderately loose monetary policy has been in effect, with social financing scale increasing significantly, reaching 33.39 trillion yuan in the first eleven months [10] - The structure of credit has improved, supporting key sectors and strategic economic transformations, with notable growth in technology and green loans [11] Group 6: Green Transition - China has introduced numerous policies for green low-carbon transition and ecological civilization construction, achieving significant progress in various fields [14] - The energy structure is shifting towards non-fossil sources, with ambitious targets for renewable energy installations [14][15] - The green economy is thriving, with over 218.7 million existing green economy-related enterprises, indicating sustained vitality in the sector [14]

Economic Outlook - The global economy is expected to show resilience in 2025, with growth projected to exceed expectations despite challenges such as U.S. tariffs, ongoing geopolitical conflicts, and increased financial volatility [1] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised its global economic growth forecast for 2025 to 3.2%, while the U.S. economy is expected to grow only 2.0% in 2025 and further decline to 1.7% in 2026 [1] - Emerging markets and developing economies are projected to be the main drivers of global growth, with a forecasted growth rate of 4.2% in 2025, particularly strong in ASEAN countries at 4.7% [1] Trade Dynamics - Global trade is undergoing a transformation, with a 4.9% year-on-year increase in global goods trade volume in the first half of 2025, and an annual forecast adjustment to 2.4% [2] - The growth in trade is attributed to both the "stockpiling effect" before U.S. tariffs and the expansion of trade among developing countries, with Asia contributing significantly to global trade growth [2] - The trade system faces deep challenges, with unilateral tariffs and geopolitical conflicts causing significant disruptions, as over 90% of global trade relies on bank financing [2] Technological and Green Transition - AI and green transition are identified as dual driving forces for the economy, with AI investments expected to boost global trade by 34% to 37% by 2040 [3] - However, the IMF warns that the current surge in AI investment resembles the internet bubble, posing risks of market corrections if returns do not meet expectations [3] - China's investments in renewable energy technologies have reduced global clean energy costs, with electric vehicle penetration exceeding 50%, contributing to global emissions reduction efforts [3] China's Economic Stability - China's GDP is projected to grow by 5.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, with total GDP expected to surpass 140 trillion yuan [4] - Consumption and manufacturing investment are identified as key growth engines, supported by policies aimed at expanding the domestic market and enhancing foreign investment access [4] - China's focus on AI and biotechnology in its 14th Five-Year Plan is expected to provide market opportunities and technology transfer for developing countries [4] Future Considerations - The resilience of the global economy in 2025 is attributed to technological breakthroughs and the rise of emerging economies, with a need for balance amid uncertainties in 2026 [4] - Trade policy disagreements, U.S. debt risks, and uncertainties in Japan's stimulus plans may increase market volatility, but opportunities remain in AI applications and green technology cost reductions [4] - Cooperation and openness are emphasized as essential for navigating economic challenges, with constructive dialogue among nations seen as key to alleviating trade tensions and improving global economic prospects [4]

Group 1: Economic Outlook - HSBC forecasts global economic growth to remain stable in 2026, with a slowdown in trade export growth, while strong investment in artificial intelligence will support investment and trade growth in the next two years [1] - In Asia, export growth is expected to slow but will still outperform the global average [1] - The Federal Reserve is unlikely to lower interest rates further in 2026, maintaining the current target range [1] Group 2: China's Economic Performance - HSBC's Chief Economist for Greater China, Liu Jing, anticipates that China will achieve a 5% economic growth target for 2025, supported by a series of easing policies and resilient exports [1] - The year 2026 marks the beginning of the "14th Five-Year Plan," focusing on structural transformation and balanced trade, with domestic demand becoming the main driver of growth [1] - Expanding domestic demand will be a key policy focus in 2026, crucial for achieving high-quality economic development [1] Group 3: Investment Trends - Short-term "trade-in" policies are expected to continue, but long-term growth will hinge on service consumption [2] - Fixed asset investment is projected to recover, particularly in infrastructure, with a strong rebound anticipated in early 2026 [2] - The introduction of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools is expected to alleviate funding issues for local governments, supporting over 2,300 projects with a total investment of approximately 7 trillion yuan [2] Group 4: Fiscal and Monetary Policy - The central economic work conference suggests maintaining a necessary fiscal deficit, with a target deficit rate of around 4% for 2026 [3] - Local government special bonds and special treasury bonds are expected to be issued at levels similar to 2025 to support consumption and major project investments [3] - HSBC anticipates a potential 20 basis point interest rate cut and a 50 basis point reserve requirement ratio cut in 2026 [3] Group 5: Supply Chain and Trade - Amid rising global trade protectionism and supply chain security concerns, external demand uncertainties are expected to persist [4] - China aims to expand high-level openness and international cooperation to address these challenges [4] - The innovation-driven growth model in China is accelerating, with significant advancements in AI and innovative pharmaceuticals, enhancing China's attractiveness for foreign investment [4]

Core Viewpoint - The forum titled "Green Transformation, Intelligent Creation of the Future" focuses on the ambitious blueprint for green transformation outlined in the 14th Five-Year Plan and the concept of a "Beautiful China" era [1] Group 1: Key Discussions - Experts, including former Vice Minister of Finance Zhu Guangyao and Wang Naixiang, Chairman of Beijing Green Exchange, discussed core topics such as optimizing carbon market mechanisms and low-carbon industrial transformation [1] - The event also featured the announcement of the "Top Ten Green Development Cases for 2025," highlighting benchmark examples in the field of green development [1]

Core Viewpoint - Everllence aims to become an indispensable technology partner in China's low-carbon development, focusing on green transformation in the shipping industry and expanding its local operations to support the country's carbon neutrality goals by 2060 [1][5]. Group 1: Strategic Initiatives - The company plans to deepen collaboration with local partners and enhance its production capacity in China, providing diverse and forward-looking power solutions for the shipping industry [3][4]. - Everllence will leverage its expertise in carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) and efficient heat pump technologies to improve resource utilization and stimulate innovation across traditional industries [4]. - The company is accelerating the localization of its production base in Changzhou to better respond to local market demands and enhance operational efficiency [4]. Group 2: Future Goals for 2026 - By 2026, Everllence aims to strengthen strategic partnerships with Chinese shipyards, engine manufacturers, shipowners, and energy companies to scale up the production of two-stroke and four-stroke green engines [6]. - The company plans to increase R&D investment and utilize its digital platform for real-time monitoring and optimization of ship energy efficiency and carbon emissions, thereby helping clients improve operational efficiency and reduce environmental impact [6]. - Everllence intends to accelerate the deployment of heat pump and CCUS technologies in the Chinese market, establishing industry benchmarks for key decarbonization technologies [6].

Core Viewpoint - The State Council's Tariff Policy Committee has announced the "2026 Tariff Adjustment Plan," effective from January 1, 2026, aimed at optimizing import tariffs to promote high-quality development and meet the growing needs of the population [1][2]. Group 1: High-end Manufacturing and Technology Industry - The industry will benefit directly from reduced import tariffs on key components and advanced materials, such as hydraulic cushions and composite connectors, which will lower import costs and enhance supply stability [4]. - The tariff reduction is expected to alleviate financial pressure on companies importing critical semiconductor equipment, thereby accelerating domestic substitution processes and fostering a favorable development environment [4]. Group 2: Healthcare Sector - The tariff adjustments will lower import tariffs on medical products like artificial blood vessels and diagnostic kits, reducing procurement costs for domestic healthcare institutions and improving access to quality medical resources [4]. - The ongoing optimization of tariff policies will further decrease operational costs for healthcare companies, enhancing their market competitiveness [4]. Group 3: Foreign Trade and Retail - Foreign trade enterprises, particularly those engaged in cross-border operations, will benefit from tariff reductions, with products like coffee beans and automotive engines included in the "zero tariff" list [5]. - The rising demand in the duty-free shopping market, exemplified by a 54.9% year-on-year increase in Hainan's duty-free shopping amount, will drive growth in related industries such as shipping and logistics [5]. Group 4: Green Energy - The green energy sector will see advantages from reduced import tariffs on resource products, such as recycled black powder for lithium-ion batteries, lowering production costs for new energy battery manufacturers [5]. - The easing of tariffs is expected to provide more certainty for global investments in the new energy sector, further reducing export costs for China's photovoltaic and new energy vehicle industries [5].

Group 1 - The core issue affecting China's economic growth is the demand problem, which has been prioritized in economic work for two consecutive years [2] - The overall economic performance in China shows resilience and stability, but the imbalance between strong supply and weak demand remains a significant challenge [2] - The main contradiction in economic operation is shifting from the supply side to the demand side, necessitating a focus on resolving demand issues for sustainable economic development [2] Group 2 - The acceleration of domestic demand expansion policies has led to positive outcomes, but consumption demand is constrained by both short-term fluctuations and long-term structural factors [3] - Short-term measures should include strong stimulus policies to break negative cycles, while long-term strategies must address deep-rooted issues to ensure stable growth [3] - The shift in consumer behavior from goods to services highlights the need for increased support in service consumption, particularly in education, healthcare, and elder care [3] Group 3 - Investment remains crucial alongside consumption, as effective investment is necessary to meet consumption demands and expand consumption space [4] - There is significant potential for effective investment, particularly in urban development and addressing social welfare gaps [4] - The decline in private and foreign investment underscores the need for policy innovation and improved business environments to boost investor confidence [5][6]