Core Viewpoint - Jeffrey Gundlach, the CIO and founder of DoubleLine Capital, believes that the surge in gold prices is far from over, predicting that gold could rise to $4,000 per ounce. He attributes this to changing perceptions among traders regarding gold, influenced by geopolitical tensions and tariffs [1][1][1]. Group 1: Gold Market Insights - Gold prices have increased by 25% year-to-date, indicating a shift in how gold is viewed by investors, moving away from being a speculative tool to being recognized as a legitimate asset class [1][1]. - The global physical gold ETF market expanded by $11 billion in April, reaching a total of $397 billion, reflecting growing investor interest in gold as a safe haven [1][1][1]. - A recent survey by Bank of America revealed that 58% of global fund managers consider gold the safest asset amid a full-blown trade war [1][1]. Group 2: Broader Market Context - Gundlach expresses concerns about other risk assets, predicting a potential "crash" in the stock market, with the S&P 500 index possibly dropping to 4,500 points, representing a 20% decline from current levels [1][1]. - Other analysts, including Goldman Sachs, UBS, and Bank of America, have also raised their gold price targets, with Goldman Sachs setting a target of $3,700 per ounce, citing high policy uncertainty and potential economic slowdown in the U.S. [1][1][1].

美联储高官集体泼冷水，"按兵不动"成主流。 当地时间周五，在美联储公布最新利率决议两天后，超过一半的美联储政策制定者公开发表讲话，没有 一位暗示美联储即将降息。 克利夫兰联储主席Beth Hammack在斯坦福大学胡佛研究所的会议上表示： "我通常倾向于采取行动；但在这种情况下，不采取行动可能是平衡进一步上升的通胀和劳 动力市场放缓风险的最佳选择。" Hammack强调，官员们需要更多时间来评估关税和其他政府政策的影响。"当难以获得清晰度时，等待 额外数据将有助于为未来路径提供信息，"她说。她在接受路透社采访时补充说，政策制定者在6月下次 会议前不会有太多新的经济数据。 多位美联储官员强调通胀预期 多位美联储官员，包括美联储理事Adriana Kugler、Lisa Cook以及Hammack和纽约联储主席John Williams，都强调了控制通胀预期的重要性。 Williams特别强调这一主题，称锚定通胀预期是"现代中央银行的基石"。 圣路易斯联储主席Alberto Musalem表示，如果关税对通胀的影响是短暂的，通胀预期保持锚定，且经 济活动明显放缓，降低利率可能是适当的。 "否则，我将专注于确保关税 ...

美联储理事Cook：预计特朗普政府的贸易政策和相关的不确定性将在短期内拖累生产率的增长，这可 能促使美联储在更长时间内维持政策利率不变。 由于生产率下降，潜在经济增速的下滑将带来更大的通胀压力。 在其他条件相同的情况下，较低的生产率可能会促使我支持在更长时间内将利率保持在较高水平。 由于企业不知道关税的最终水平或持续时间，贸易政策的不确定性可能会减少商业投资，从而影响生产 率。 如果保护主义贸易政策支持效率较低的公司，或者如果这些变化导致供应链中断，生产率也可能受到影 响。 人工智能可以在未来几年提高美国的生产率，潜在地抵消贸易政策的负面影响。 ...

美联储威廉姆斯：贸易政策仍处于不断变化之中。 ...

美联储威廉姆斯：贸易政策存在很大不确定性。 ...

市场关注美国经济增长的下行风险。 公众必须要对通胀回归2%有信心。 贸易政策将增加经济增长放缓的风险。 实际中性利率在0.75%至1%左右。 美联储威廉姆斯：没有价格稳定，就没有经济稳定。 ...

美联储的威廉姆斯：贸易政策将增加经济增长放缓的风险。 ...

21世纪经济报道记者赖镇桃 广州报道 票型罕见地分裂成三方，反映出政策制定者的分歧，英国央行行长贝利的发言却释放出些许鹰派信号。 此前市场还预期这次决议声明可能会删除"渐进谨慎"的一贯表述，加快降息节奏，但5月8日的发布会 上，贝利仍然强调货币宽松政策延续"渐进和审慎"的基调不松口。 略偏强硬的表态，打压年内降息预期，掉期市场显示6月份英国央行降息的概率由50%下降到20%左 右，助推英镑、英国国债收益率快速走高。 下次降息时机或再押后 英国央行的降息，早在市场的意料之中。3月份，英国消费者价格指数（CPI）连续第二个月回落，同 比增速从2月的2.8%降至2.6%。 通胀降温提供了成熟的条件，美国滥施关税则是这轮降息的主要动因。据新华社报道，英国央行指出， 美国对全球加征关税以来，全球贸易政策不确定性加剧，金融市场出现波动，这种不确定性和新的关税 措施导致全球经济增长前景变弱。 美国滥施关税对英国经济的冲击已经有所显现。标普日前公布的数据显示，4月英国综合采购经理指数 （PMI）从3月的51.5下跌至48.5，为2023年10月以来首次跌入收缩区间，服务业活动也在连续17个月扩 张后首次跌至荣枯线以下，主要由 ...

美联储理事巴尔：贸易政策增加了不确定性，导致经济前景变得黯淡，影响了消费者和企业的信心。 ...

Group 1 - The global cryptocurrency market has achieved a significant breakthrough, with Bitcoin's price surpassing $100,000, reaching $101,000 on May 9, 2025, marking its return to this psychological price level since February [1] - Bitcoin rebounded approximately 33% from a low of $76,000 in early April, closely linked to the positive shift in trade policies under the Trump administration [1] - The announcement of a trade agreement between the U.S. and the U.K. and optimism regarding upcoming U.S.-China talks have boosted market confidence, leading to a rise in risk assets, including cryptocurrencies [1] Group 2 - Accompanying Bitcoin's strong performance, cryptocurrency-related stocks have also seen a collective rise, with Coinbase up 6%, Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) up 7%, and mining companies Riot Platforms and Mara Holdings up 7% and 8% respectively [3] - Traditional financial institutions are accelerating their entry into the cryptocurrency market, with Morgan Stanley planning to offer cryptocurrency trading for E*Trade users and Charles Schwab set to launch Bitcoin and Ethereum spot trading this year [3] - The establishment of new Bitcoin investment companies, such as Nakamoto, which raised $300 million, and Twenty One, backed by SoftBank and Tether, indicates a growing interest in Bitcoin investments [3] Group 3 - Despite the positive market atmosphere, the cryptocurrency industry faces regulatory challenges, with Connecticut Senator Richard Blumenthal initiating an investigation into Trump's meme coin and stablecoin projects due to national security concerns [5] - Democratic senators are pushing for the "End Crypto Corruption Act," aimed at limiting government officials' involvement in digital asset issuance [5] - XBIT decentralized exchange platform is preparing to adapt to regulatory changes through technological upgrades and compliance measures to ensure safe and convenient trading for users amid uncertain policy environments [5]