又有新纪录！——A股的2025年9月，像一场意外暴雨砸在地上，溅起泥点，也砸碎不少人的幻想，数据在屏幕上跳舞，交易大厅的屏气凝神，和手机 屏幕背后的碎碎念，交织成一张巨网。 有人说："今年的9月，A股疯了"，有人却在微信群里喊，"不就是成交额创个新高吗，历史每年都在刷"。但今年的9月，沪深北三市合计成交53.2万 亿，记录簿翻了又翻，前一次月成交股数还能追溯到去年11月，3.3万亿股，这个月只差一点点就追上了，这种"只差一点点"，有时候比直接超越更让 人焦虑。 有朋友问我，"是不是整个市场都涨？"其实不是，大盘指数只涨了零点几个点，北证50还跌了2.9%，一边天高云淡，一边泥里打滚，谁也说不清哪个 更真实。深证成指也只有29%出头的涨幅，上证指数12.73%，远没到疯狂的地步，但创业板、科创那头的热血数据，很容易让人误以为"全民皆牛"。 9月刚收官那天，我蹲在中关村地铁口，听到一群年轻人讨论，"创业板涨疯了，三季度直接翻了一倍多，谁信啊"，另一人插嘴，"你炒了没？"前者摇 头，"没，怕得很"。三季度创业板涨幅50.40%，科创50也快50%，数据就摆在那里，像考卷分数，不认可也得接着看。 "行业都涨吗？"我查 ...

Core Insights - The A-share market's performance relies on four key conditions: liquidity easing, economic improvement, policy support, and low valuations, which are currently showing significant imbalance [1][2] Group 1: Policy Support - Policy support is fully in place, with strong determination and efforts evident in industrial policies and capital market reforms, providing a solid policy foundation for the market [1] Group 2: Valuation and Market Expectations - Overall valuations reflect optimistic expectations for future growth but also impose higher requirements for earnings realization [1] Group 3: External Liquidity - Positive changes in external liquidity have emerged following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, alleviating global liquidity tightening pressures and supporting the RMB exchange rate, which may attract foreign capital back to emerging markets, benefiting A-shares, particularly in interest-sensitive technology growth sectors [1] Group 4: Economic Recovery - The current economic situation is on a weak recovery path, with a need to boost effective social demand; the sustainability of corporate earnings recovery from localized to widespread levels is fundamental for market confidence [1][2] Group 5: Market Outlook - The reduction of external constraints and proactive internal policies suggest that a structural market trend may continue, but a comprehensive market rally awaits stronger and broader profit growth driven by economic fundamentals [2]

Group 1 - The A-share market has shown strong performance this year, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 14.21% and the CSI 300 Index up 15.63% as of September 26 [2][3] - The average gain for A-share investors is 22,200 yuan, with a total market capitalization increase from 77.55 trillion yuan at the end of last year to 94.52 trillion yuan [3] - A total of 398 stocks have doubled in price this year, with the machinery sector leading in the number of doubling stocks [2] Group 2 - Public funds have achieved an average return of 17.21% this year, with small-cap growth funds performing the best, up 45.66% [4] - 67 public funds have doubled their returns, with the top-performing fund yielding 189.58% [4] - Equity funds have an average return of 28.19%, while bond funds have only achieved a 1.6% return [4][6] Group 3 - Gold has surged by 43.59% this year, with gold-themed funds averaging a return of 49.67% [5] - Gold industry stock index funds have performed even better, with an average return of 71.39% [5] Group 4 - The average annualized return for wealth management products is 2.56%, with fixed-income products yielding only 1.62% [6][7] - A total of 20 wealth management products have achieved returns exceeding 20% this year [7] Group 5 - Deposit interest rates have significantly decreased, with one-year fixed deposit rates dropping below 1%, resulting in annual interest of only 950 yuan for a 100,000 yuan deposit [8][10]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a volatile upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.40% to 3878.13 points, the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 0.31% to 13521.11 points, and the ChiNext Index gaining 0.06% to 3240.02 points [1] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors included energy metals (up 4.43%), small metals (up 2.79%), semiconductors (up 2.74%), and industrial metals (up 2.30%) [1] - Conversely, the sectors that saw declines were led by banks (down 0.97%), insurance (down 0.82%), and liquor (down 0.69%) [1] Trading Volume and Capital Flow - The total trading volume for the energy sector was 447.83 million hands, with a total transaction value of 221 billion yuan and a net inflow of 0.83 billion yuan [1] - In contrast, the banking sector had a trading volume of 2260.25 million hands, a transaction value of 168.55 billion yuan, and a net outflow of 30.31 billion yuan [1]

Group 1 - The A-share market has experienced high-level fluctuations since September, with significant capital inflow into brokerage-related ETFs, totaling over 27 billion yuan [1][2] - The Guotai CSI All-Share Securities Company ETF alone received over 10 billion yuan in capital inflow [1][2] - As of September 26, 16 brokerage-related ETFs collectively attracted approximately 27.41 billion yuan in capital [2] Group 2 - The Guotai CSI All-Share Securities Company ETF's fund size reached 44.48 billion units by September 26, marking a 28.96% increase since the end of August, with total assets growing by 18.4% to 54.18 billion yuan [5] - Other brokerage ETFs also showed rapid growth, with the Huabao CSI All-Share Securities Company ETF's size increasing by over 20% and total assets rising by over 10% [5] - The Tianhong, Yinhua, and Nanfang CSI All-Share Securities Company ETFs each received over 1 billion yuan in capital inflow since September [5] Group 3 - The technology sector continues to attract significant capital, with the E Fund National Robot Industry ETF receiving over 6 billion yuan in inflow, doubling its size to 7.74 billion units [7] - The Guangfa National New Energy Vehicle Battery ETF and the Huitianfu CSI Battery Theme ETF each gained over 4 billion yuan in capital inflow, with their sizes reaching 12.55 billion units and 7.21 billion units, respectively [7] - The technology growth sector has shown strong performance in the first three quarters, with expectations for continued positive trends in the fourth quarter [7] Group 4 - The new energy vehicle sector is expected to receive ongoing policy support, leading to rapid growth in battery demand, particularly for solid-state batteries [8] - The battery sector is anticipated to maintain a high level of prosperity, with expectations for a favorable market in the fourth quarter [8] Group 5 - The domestic economy is expected to continue its steady recovery, supported by policy measures and improved market confidence, which will benefit the securities sector [6]

Market Overview - The A-share market saw all three major indices rise collectively, with the Shanghai Composite Index finding support at the 3800-point mark and subsequently trending upwards, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index reached new highs, indicating a strong upward trend [4]. - A total of 3574 stocks experienced gains, reflecting a broad-based market rally, particularly in the new energy sector, which saw significant increases in energy metals, batteries, solid-state batteries, and energy storage [5]. Trading Volume and Liquidity - The total trading volume of the two markets exceeded 2 trillion yuan, marking a slight increase of 0.68%, and maintaining a high level of market liquidity and active trading [6]. Fund Flows and Investor Sentiment - Institutional investors displayed a cautious yet optimistic sentiment, with a trend towards positioning for the post-holiday market, while some opted to reduce holdings slightly to mitigate risks. There was a noticeable shift of institutional funds towards sectors supported by policy and industry trends [7]. - Retail investors showed a resurgence in participation, with 75.85% of them actively engaging in the market. However, some chose to hold cash during the holiday, and there were signs of selling during early declines, although overall sentiment remained positive towards low-priced rebound stocks and leading consumer stocks [8][7]. Positioning and Market Outlook - As of September 29, 28.14% of investors increased their positions, while 21.20% reduced their holdings, with 50.66% maintaining their current positions. This indicates a mixed approach among investors regarding market engagement [11]. - The average position held by investors was reported at 65.28%, suggesting a relatively high level of market exposure [16].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Stock Index**: Maintain an optimistic view on A-shares in the long term, as market trading sentiment remains active, RMB appreciation drives loose internal and external liquidity, and there is support from credit impulse resilience and consumption policy expectations. However, in the short term, it is necessary to be vigilant against the risk of fluctuations caused by the passivation of positive factors due to four marginal changes, including structural overheating in market sentiment, potential capital flow disturbances after the Fed's preventive rate cut, weak fundamental data in most months, and the approaching National Day holiday [7]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Stock market fluctuations intensify the volatility of interest rate bonds. The follow - up trend of domestic interest rate bonds mainly depends on the central bank's rate - cut plan, and policy trends will dominate market sentiment repair and yield positioning. The Fed's rate cut has limited impact on domestic interest rate bonds [8]. 3. Summary by Directory **Stock Index Strategy Suggestions** - **Trend Review**: Last week, the market continued to fluctuate with significant style differentiation. The large - cap growth sector performed strongly, while the value sector was under pressure. Major indices showed mixed performance, with growth - style broad - based indices leading the gains [7]. - **Technical Analysis**: The main A - share indices showed a differentiated and volatile pattern last week. The Shanghai Composite Index was constrained by the 3100 - point pressure, while the ChiNext Index was strong, breaking through the 20 - week moving average, and the STAR 50 index was approaching its annual high but in the overbought area [7]. - **Strategy Outlook**: Remain rational and make cautious decisions [7]. **Treasury Bond Strategy Suggestions** - **Trend Review**: Bond yields first rose and then fell last week. The bond market was under pressure during the week and rebounded slightly at the end of the week. The treasury bond curve showed a slight bear - steepening, and the overall rebound momentum was limited [8]. - **Technical Analysis**: Treasury bond futures first fell and then rebounded. T2412 continued to decline since September 16th. The trading volume decreased, and the open interest mostly increased. The CTD net basis was differentiated, and the IRR was generally low [8]. - **Strategy Outlook**: Wait patiently for a clear trend before operating [8]. **Key Data Tracking** - **PMI**: In July, the manufacturing PMI fell to 49.3%, weaker than market expectations and seasonal changes. Supply and demand on both sides weakened, and the upstream non - ferrous and steel industries improved, while the downstream export chain was suppressed [12]. - **Inflation**: In September, the year - on - year CPI was flat, and the month - on - month CPI rose by 0.4%. The year - on - year PPI decreased by 3.6%, and the month - on - month PPI decreased by 0.2%. There were positive changes in prices, but the year - on - year CPI and PPI were still sluggish [15]. - **Industrial Added Value**: In September, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value dropped to 5.7%, and the growth rate of the service industry production index dropped to 5.8%. The decline in the industrial added value was mainly due to the export chain [18]. - **Fixed - Asset Investment**: In September, the estimated year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment turned negative to - 5.2%. The reasons for the negative growth were complex, including short - term, medium - term, and long - term factors [21]. - **Social Retail Sales**: In September, the year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales dropped to 3.7%. The weakening was mainly reflected in low - level fluctuations in catering consumption, weakening sales of state - subsidized categories, and a decline in real - estate - related consumption [24]. - **Social Financing**: In September, new social financing was 1.2 trillion yuan, and new RMB loans were - 100 billion yuan. The growth rates of social financing, M1, and M2 improved. In the future, the social financing growth rate may peak and decline, and there are still windows for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts this year [27]. - **Imports and Exports**: In September, exports were 321.78 billion US dollars, imports were 223.54 billion US dollars, and the trade surplus was 98.24 billion US dollars. The performance of imports and exports was significantly better than market expectations, mainly due to the "rush" characteristic under the threat of US tariffs [30]. **Key Points to Watch This Week** - Multiple economic indicators in the US, such as ADP employment, non - farm payrolls, ISM services PMI, refinery utilization rate, and initial jobless claims, need to be monitored [32].

Group 1 - The A500ETF by Jiashi has a turnover rate of 3.57% and a transaction volume of 4.41 billion yuan, with an average daily transaction of 22.80 billion yuan over the past year as of September 26, 2025 [3] - The latest scale of A500ETF by Jiashi reached 116.54 billion yuan, with a net value increase of 18.59% over the past year as of September 26, 2025 [3] - The highest monthly return since inception for A500ETF by Jiashi was 11.71%, with the longest consecutive monthly gains being 4 months and a maximum gain of 22.93% [3] Group 2 - The top ten weighted stocks in the CSI A500 index as of August 29, 2025, include Kweichow Moutai, CATL, Ping An Insurance, and others, accounting for a total of 19.11% [4] - The individual weightings of the top stocks are as follows: Kweichow Moutai at 3.87%, CATL at 2.89%, and Ping An Insurance at 2.60% [6] - Investors without stock accounts can access the A500ETF Jiashi linked fund (022454) for exposure to the top 500 A-shares [6]

Group 1 - The three major indices opened slightly higher, with the Ningxia sector leading the gains. As of the opening, the Shanghai Composite Index was at 3828.17 points, the Shenzhen Component Index at 13248.20 points (up 0.30%), and the ChiNext Index at 3165.07 points (up 0.43%) [1] - CITIC Securities believes that the A-share market has not entered a state of irrational overheating, showing characteristics of "high volume, moderate heat, uneven driving forces, and distinct structural features" [2] - The current market focus is on domestic policies and structural economic prosperity, with expectations that the A-share market may continue a slow bull trend in the medium term [1] Group 2 - The conclusion drawn by Guotai Junan is that the bull market may not have ended but has entered a critical phase of testing the fundamentals and style switching [2] - The breadth of the market is observed through the "percentage of stocks above the annual line," which remains high without showing typical divergence signals, indicating that the current rise is supported by a broad base rather than a few heavyweight stocks [2] - Volume indicators like OBV have risen alongside the index, without showing signs of divergence, suggesting that the current market rally is supported by both volume and breadth, and there are no warning signals of a "bubble" [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the A-share market is expected to maintain a slow bull pattern in the medium term, with a tendency for a "post-holiday rally" following the National Day holiday, despite typical liquidity contraction before the holiday [1] - Citic Securities notes that the current A-share market is not in an irrationally overheated state, indicating a bull market that may not have ended but is entering a critical phase of fundamental testing and style switching [1] - The breadth of the market is still high, with no signs of divergence between index highs and breadth, suggesting that the current rise is supported by a wider range of stocks rather than just a few large-cap stocks [1] Group 2 - Ping An Securities highlights that market volatility may increase due to capital speculation before the National Day holiday, but major indices remain in a high-level consolidation, with trading volume staying above 2 trillion yuan [2] - Following the holiday, the return of capital is expected to create upward potential in the market, with the technology sector likely to catalyze more structural opportunities [2]