【 公司点睛 】 居民端的支撑因素：险资与监管对于下行风险的兜底、居民资产负债表的影响在逐步降低、居民资金2026年进一步活期化、这一轮与 股票竞争存款的高收益资产所剩无几。 外资端的支撑因素： 全球资金"总蛋糕"有望进一步变大、美元下行压力、A股基本面有望在2026年筑底改善。 广发证券策略刘晨明分析，2025年A股增量资金叙事为：监管与险资遏制指数下行风险，国内存款搬家与海外美元溢出资金打开指数上 行空间。 展望202 6年，更像是加强版的2025年：险资与监管的兜底大概率延续，而居民存款搬家（尤其是中高净值人群）与外资入市更值得期 待。 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 原标题：【广发策略】中高净值的存款搬家很可能已形成趋势 来源：晨明的策略深度思考 一、2025年：监管与险资有效兜底，但场外资金流入仍处早期 2025年，A股增量资金最好的叙事是"上行收益和下行风险不对称"——监管与险资遏制指数下行风险， 国内存款搬家与海外美元溢出资金打开指数上行空间。（我们在6、7月份的两篇报告《市场不缺钱》 《下行风险和上行收益不对称》有更详细的讨论） 但从全年的实际情况看，我们更能观察到下行风险有限（险资与监管兜底），而场外资金的流入却仍处 在风偏修复的早期阶段（存量资金加仓，居民、外资入市仍缓）。 监管与险资有效托底，兜住市场下行风险。本轮监管对于资本市场的态度回温，从体感上，我们能明显 感觉到调控的柔韧性上升，相较于2024年的资金"将信将疑"，当下市场资金对于"下有底"的一致预期越 来越强，甚至也主动成为左侧托底的合力。 （1）城镇储户的投资意愿自2024Q3以来明显回暖，但绝对水平仍处低位； 险资对于A股的配置需求同样增加，从仓位看，险资的仓位在2025Q3已经来到15.5%，创有数据以来的 历史次高（仅 ...

[Table_Page] 投资策略|专题报告 2025 年 12 月 21 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 中高净值的存款搬家很可能已形成趋势 ——2026 年 A 股增量资金展望 [Table_Summary] 报告摘要： | [分析师： Table_Author]刘晨明 | | | --- | --- | | | SAC 执证号：S0260524020001 | | SFC CE No. BVH021 | | | 010-59136616 | | | | liuchenming@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： 郑恺 | | | | SAC 执证号：S0260515090004 | | SFC CE No. BUU989 | | | 021-38003559 | | | zhengkai@gf.com.cn | | | 分析师： | 杨清源 | | | SAC 执证号：S0260525080001 | | | yangqingyuan@gf.com.cn | 请注意，杨清源并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注 册持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责 ...

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index briefly surpassed 4000 points before retreating, closing at 4005 points with a gain of 0.21% [1] - The three major A-share indices experienced a decline in the afternoon, with the Shanghai Index down 0.22%, Shenzhen Component down 0.44%, and ChiNext down 0.15% [2][3] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.15 trillion, a decrease of 192.3 billion compared to the previous trading day, with over 2900 stocks declining [4] Sector Performance - The Fujian sector continued to perform strongly, with multiple stocks hitting the daily limit, including Haixia Innovation and Fujian Cement [3] - The military industry stocks surged, with companies like Jianglong Shipbuilding and Great Wall Military Industry seeing significant gains [3] - The non-ferrous metals sector faced widespread declines, particularly in gold, rare earths, and cobalt mining [3] Capital Flow - Main capital inflows were observed in the biopharmaceutical, cultural media, and software development sectors, while outflows were noted in semiconductors, non-ferrous metals, and communication equipment [6] - Specific stocks such as N He Yuan-U and N Yi Cai-U saw net inflows of 1.775 billion and 1.291 billion respectively, while Northern Rare Earth and Huayou Cobalt experienced significant outflows [6] Market Outlook - Industry insiders predict a likely continuation of a slow bull market until the end of the year, supported by progress in US-China trade negotiations and favorable regulatory policies [7] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is optimizing the Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor (QFII) system to attract foreign investment, enhancing transparency and efficiency [8] - Analysts suggest that the breakthrough of 4000 points reflects improved market sentiment and investor confidence, with a potential for further capital inflow if the index stabilizes above this level [9] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to remain rational and focus on companies with strong fundamentals, avoiding blind chasing of high prices [9] - The technology sector is expected to continue its momentum, while pharmaceuticals and consumer goods are seen as key areas for long-term investment [10]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a positive sentiment with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking the 4000-point mark, driven by improved market conditions and regulatory support, although caution is advised regarding potential profit-taking in high-valuation sectors [3][4][5]. Market Performance - On October 28, the Shanghai Composite Index briefly surpassed 4000 points before retreating, ultimately closing at 4005 points with a 0.21% increase. The trading volume in Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing reached 1.36 trillion yuan, a decrease of 216.5 billion yuan compared to the previous day [3]. - Analysts suggest that the index's breakthrough is a reflection of enhanced market sentiment and investor confidence, with the potential for continued upward movement if it can maintain this level [5]. Regulatory Environment - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has introduced measures to optimize the Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor (QFII) system, aiming to provide a more transparent and efficient environment for foreign investors. This includes streamlined approval processes and a green channel for foreign capital [4]. - The CSRC is also planning to launch a refinancing framework to support mergers and acquisitions, urging listed companies to improve governance and increase shareholder returns through dividends and buybacks [4]. Economic Context - Recent developments in U.S.-China trade negotiations have alleviated market concerns, contributing to a recovery in risk appetite. The expectation of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve and the continued appreciation of the yuan are also factors supporting foreign capital inflow [4][6]. - Market analysts predict that the A-share market will likely maintain a "slow bull" trend with increased volatility, emphasizing the importance of focusing on fundamentally strong companies while avoiding speculative investments [5][6]. Sector Analysis - The technology sector is expected to continue its momentum, while healthcare and consumer sectors are identified as key areas for long-term investment [5]. - Analysts caution that high valuations in certain sectors, particularly technology and semiconductors, may lead to profit-taking and increased market fluctuations as the year-end approaches [4][5].

Group 1 - The A-share market has shown strong performance, with major indices like the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index rising by 12.51%, 14.45%, and 21.19% respectively year-to-date as of August 21 [1] - The increase in market activity is supported by various funding sources working together, enhancing the resilience of China's capital market in the long term [1] Group 2 - The Chinese version of the stabilization fund, led by the Central Huijin Investment, has played a crucial role in maintaining the long-term health of the capital market by injecting liquidity and providing strong policy signals [2] - The Central Huijin's actions, such as increasing holdings in stock index funds, have been significant in promoting market recovery and stabilizing abnormal fluctuations [2] Group 3 - There has been a steady inflow of medium to long-term funds into the market, with insurance capital's stock investment balance increasing by 640.6 billion yuan, a growth of 26.4% compared to the end of last year [3] - Recent policy measures have facilitated the entry of long-term capital, which is expected to enhance market resilience and resource allocation efficiency [3] Group 4 - Retail investors have significantly increased their participation in the market, with new A-share accounts rising by 36.88% year-on-year in the first seven months of the year [4] - The active involvement of retail investors contributes to the liquidity and vibrancy of the capital market [4] Group 5 - Foreign capital has been increasingly flowing into A-shares, with the average daily trading volume of northbound funds reaching 202.4 billion yuan in July, a 36.3% increase from June [5] - The influx of foreign investment is expected to optimize the investor structure in the capital market and drive valuation reassessment [5] - The combination of economic stability, deepening market openness, and the emergence of globally competitive companies will further attract foreign capital, promoting high-quality development of the capital market [5]