今年以来，大资管行业整体规模超过170万亿元，但细分领域结构性分化凸显。其中，公募基金、保险资管、 银行理财和信托整体规模超30万亿 元 ，马太效应加剧，而同期私募、券商资管、期货资管等机构仍然面临严 峻的竞争格局。 具体就券商资管而言，一方面，7万亿 元 的受托规模虽然短期企稳，但伴随着大集合整改结束、固收资产收益 率下降，行业急需新的增长突破；另一方面，当前具有公募业务管理资格的券商及资管子公司仅有14家，在公 募领域市场份额占比仅2%，年内增量占比2%。公募白热化竞争，也对券商资管的综合实力提出了更高要求。 券商资管如何寻找破局之道？对此，成飞重点分享了东方红资产管理的发展路径。作为券商资管差异化发展的 探索者，东方红团队在过往二十多年里始终坚持价值投资，坚定主动管理，积累了一定的思考和经验。 近日，第十九届深圳国际金融博览会暨2025中国金融机构年会在深圳举行。在"中国证券业资产管 理高峰论坛"分论坛上，东方红资产管理总经理成飞发表《坚定价值 久久为功——资管机构差异化 发展路径探索》为题的主题演讲。 成飞表示，在行业高质量发展的新阶段，各类资产管理机构需要依据自身禀赋不断探索差异化发展路径，在做 好 ...

Core Insights - Charlie Munger made a significant investment in coal-related stocks during his final year, which he had previously avoided for 60 years, resulting in over $50 million in gains [15][25][29]. Investment Strategy - Munger's late investment in coal companies, such as Consol Energy and Alpha Metallurgical Resources, was driven by the belief that coal would not be completely abandoned as long as global energy demand continued to grow [27][28]. - Despite the coal industry's long-term decline, Munger identified undervalued companies with strong profitability, leading to substantial returns as their stock prices doubled [26][29]. Personal Philosophy - Munger's approach to aging was characterized by active engagement in life, focusing on bold investments, forming new friendships, and facing challenges head-on [4][12]. - He maintained a curious and learning mindset until the end, questioning the relevance of Moore's Law in the age of artificial intelligence [16]. Legacy and Influence - Munger's final years were marked by a commitment to mentoring younger investors, exemplified by his partnership with Avi Mayer and Reuven Gradon in real estate investments, which grew to a portfolio valued at approximately $3 billion [39]. - His ability to adapt and remain involved in investment decisions, even in his 90s, serves as a model for how to age gracefully while maintaining purpose [17][41]. Health Challenges - Munger faced significant health issues, including vision problems and the loss of mobility, yet he continued to engage with friends and maintain a social life [41][46]. - His humor and perspective on aging were evident in his interactions, as he often joked about his longevity and health [63][64].

Core Viewpoints - Michael Burry emphasizes that the primary indicator of a bubble is supply-side greed, which leads to over-expansion and ultimately market crashes, rather than demand shortages or profit deficiencies [7][11][12] - The current AI boom mirrors the 1990s internet bubble, with significant investments in AI infrastructure that may not align with actual demand [12][13] Group 1: Historical Analysis of Bubbles - The internet bubble of the 1990s was driven by excessive capital investment in data transmission infrastructure, leading to a supply-demand imbalance [7][8] - Major companies like AT&T and MCI invested heavily in infrastructure, but the actual demand for broadband was not met, resulting in a significant market crash by 2002 [8][11] - Similar patterns of over-investment leading to market corrections have been observed in the real estate bubble of the 2000s and the shale oil revolution of the 2010s [11] Group 2: Current AI Landscape - Major tech companies plan to invest nearly $3 trillion in AI infrastructure over the next three years, raising concerns about potential overcapacity [12] - OpenAI's projected spending of $1.4 trillion over eight years, with revenues not even close to covering this expenditure, highlights the unsustainable nature of current valuations [12] - The rapid pace of technological advancement in AI, particularly with companies like NVIDIA, raises questions about the longevity and economic viability of older chip models [22][23] Group 3: Financial Practices and Risks - Burry points out that major tech firms are extending the depreciation periods of their assets, which artificially inflates reported profits [20][21] - This accounting practice can lead to significant risks, as seen in the case of Baidu, which had to write down substantial asset values after extending depreciation periods [25] - The rapid obsolescence of technology, particularly in data centers, poses a risk of "zombie assets" that may not generate expected returns [24] Group 4: Clarifications on Misinterpretations - Burry clarifies that his positions in options against companies like Palantir and NVIDIA have been misrepresented in the media, emphasizing the importance of accurate reporting [26] - He distinguishes between criticizing accounting practices and directly accusing companies of fraud, asserting that his concerns are about industry-wide practices rather than specific companies [26]

美国投资大师查理·芒格逝世两周年之际，曾与他朝夕相处的亲人和商界伙伴一齐发声，描绘出芒格生命最后时刻的温暖故事。 总结来说，在最后的时间里，芒格押注了职业生涯中鲜少涉足的题材，并豪赚超过5000万美元；还加大了房地产领域的投资，与一位偶然 寻求他人生建议的年轻邻居合作买下近万套房产；同时直面身体的衰老，并选择以自己喜欢的生活方式（虽然并不健康）过完了这一生。 芒格的家人和朋友也表示，他繁忙的最后岁月也提供了一份蓝图： 投资者如何优雅、平和且有目标地老去 。 生命不息、投资不止 在生命的最后10年里，已减少参与伯克希尔事务，和巴菲特维持每一两周通话。 与选择一辈子住在奥马哈老宅里的巴菲特类似，芒格也选择住在洛杉矶一套连空调都没有的老房子里。由于两位大师都有听力问题，打起电 话来颇为困难。 芒格的外孙媳妇惠特妮·杰克逊说：" 两人会对着对方高声喊叫。他们的对话原本该是私密的，但一英里范围内的任何人都能听到。 " 除了跟巴菲特定期交流外，年近9旬的芒格将注意力转向了其他的事业。他曾是零售巨头好市多的董事会成员，去世时还持有价值约1亿美元 的股票。他还投资了李录的喜马拉雅资本，以及位于美国、澳大利亚的一些小型投资公司 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the author's transition from a potential career in politics to a focus on value investing, emphasizing a long-term investment strategy and risk management [1] Group 1: Career Transition - The author initially pursued a career in politics but shifted to finance after facing challenges in 2019, seeking a more stable financial path [1] - The decision to study value investing was driven by the desire to grow wealth while managing risks effectively [1] Group 2: Professional Experience - From 2020 to 2022, the author worked in a sales role at a law firm, where they became the top-grossing salesman and managed a team, contributing to sales strategy [1] - The experience gained during this period was instrumental in assessing company prospects based on sales strategies [1] Group 3: Investment Advisory Role - The author worked as an investment advisory representative with Fidelity from 2022 to 2023, focusing on 401K planning [1] - Despite excelling in this role, the author felt constrained by Fidelity's reliance on modern portfolio theory, which conflicted with their value investing approach [1] Group 4: Current Endeavors - In November 2023, the author began writing for Seeking Alpha, sharing investment opportunities and insights with readers [1] - The articles serve as a platform for the author to document their investment journey and strategies [1]

Group 1 - The article discusses the prevalent belief in the investment community that the odds of losing money are high, often summarized as "seven losses, two breakeven, one profit" [1][2] - It argues that this statistic is misleading due to the inclusion of inexperienced investors who lack proper research and commitment [1] - The author suggests that serious investors who dedicate significant time to research could potentially see better outcomes, possibly "seven profits, two breakeven, one loss" [1] Group 2 - The A-share market has experienced a significant outflow of capital, with an annual loss of 1.3 trillion yuan from 2019 to 2023, attributed to factors like IPOs, share reductions, and fees [2] - The article proposes that if measures are taken to limit IPOs and encourage dividends, the market could shift towards a zero-sum game, improving the profit-loss ratio [2] - It also suggests learning from international markets to enhance short-selling mechanisms and protect investor rights, which could lead to a more favorable investment environment [2] Group 3 - The article highlights that a large portion of dividends is distributed among government and institutional investors, leaving retail investors with minimal returns [3] - It points out that most retail investors are not satisfied with small gains and often engage in frequent trading, which leads to additional costs and losses [3][4] - The overall sentiment is that the majority of retail investors are unlikely to achieve long-term profitability due to emotional trading and lack of discipline [4] Group 4 - The article presents anecdotal evidence from discussions with individuals in leadership positions, indicating that even educated and experienced investors often face losses in the stock market [7] - It emphasizes that the perception of profitability among a small group of successful investors does not reflect the broader reality of the market [7] - The narrative suggests that the majority of investors, regardless of their background, struggle to achieve consistent gains [7] Group 5 - The article concludes that the investment landscape is inherently challenging, with many strategies failing to yield positive results [10][11] - It argues that relying solely on time and effort without a sound strategy is unlikely to lead to success in the market [10][11] - The discussion implies that the market is structured in a way that favors larger players, making it difficult for individual investors to succeed [15][16]

Core Insights - The long-term outlook for China's capital markets is positive, but short-term volatility risks should be monitored [1] - Opportunities in the Chinese market stem from economic transformation and upgrading, which introduces uncertainty and risk, emphasizing the need for value and long-term investing [1] Equity Assets - The core asset allocation directions for the next five years include: self-controllable and trendy consumption, mergers and reorganizations of leading enterprises, innovative development in traditional industries, and the relocation of quality enterprises [1] Gold Investment - Gold continues to hold allocation value; medium to long-term uncertainties in U.S. economic policy and concerns over a weakening dollar are expected to support demand for gold as a safe-haven and risk-hedging asset [1] - The proportion of gold in private investment allocations may increase from just over 2% to 4-5% [1] Market Participation - Future investment opportunities will largely arise from transformation and upgrading, which may be challenging for individuals to navigate, thus highlighting the need for wealth management institutions to enhance their asset allocation capabilities [1]

Group 1 - The recent ETF financing data shows significant net inflows, particularly in the Guotai CSI All-Share Securities Company ETF with a net inflow of 49 million, indicating a strategic positioning by professional investors in the brokerage and new energy sectors [1][3] - Despite an overall decrease of 1.4 billion in financing balances, professional players are quietly accumulating positions in the brokerage and new energy sectors, highlighting a divergence between market sentiment and actual investment behavior [3][4] - The data suggests that while retail investors focus on index fluctuations, smart money is utilizing industry ETFs for precise allocations, reflecting a shift in investment strategies [12] Group 2 - The article emphasizes three key lessons from past market experiences: the importance of active participation, the need to move beyond concept-driven speculation, and the superiority of behavioral analysis over technical indicators [4][5][6] - Quantitative data reveals that many stocks perceived as risky may actually be undergoing institutional accumulation, while others may be experiencing retail-driven sell-offs, underscoring the value of understanding market dynamics [10][12] - The analysis of ETF flows indicates a growing interest in sectors like brokerage and new energy vehicles, suggesting a potential trend in capital allocation towards these industries [12]

Core Insights - Google is overcoming the "innovator's dilemma" with the launch of Gemini 3 and Nano Banana Pro, leveraging its TPU computing cluster as a significant competitive advantage in the AI era [3][5] - The market underestimates the destructive impact of "inference costs" on AI business models, with Google holding pricing power due to its self-developed TPU, contrasting with competitors reliant on Nvidia [3][6] - Concerns that AI would kill search advertising are being alleviated as Gemini 3 transforms search from "link finding" to a "decision engine," potentially increasing ad conversion rates [3][19] - Google has achieved a "full-stack sovereignty" with the combination of the strongest model (Gemini 3), the best computing power (TPU), and the largest entry points (Android/Chrome), positioning it for a market cap of $5 trillion [3][22] Group 1: TPU and Inference Costs - TPU is a critical asset for Google, allowing it to transition from being a "compute buyer" to a "rule maker" in the AI infrastructure war [6][8] - The AI semiconductor market is shifting focus from training to inference, with predictions indicating that by 2030, 75% of AI computing demand will be in the inference layer [6][7] - Google's TPU v7 (Ironwood) has shown a 100% improvement in performance per watt compared to its predecessor, and its inference performance is four times better than Nvidia's H100 [7][8] Group 2: Gemini 3 and Software Integration - Gemini 3 demonstrates Google's ability to convert talent from "Brain + DeepMind" into unmatched product capabilities, showcasing native multimodal abilities [9][10] - OpenAI and Meta are shifting towards Google’s TPU to reduce reliance on Nvidia, indicating a growing trend among competitors [10] - Gemini 3 can handle long context windows, evolving from a "chatbot" to a true "agent," capable of multi-tasking across platforms [11][13] Group 3: Investment Perspective - Warren Buffett's investment in Google signals confidence in its potential for value appreciation, with a current PE ratio of around 27, offering a non-symmetric return opportunity [14] - Google's stock buyback strategy enhances shareholder value, similar to Apple's approach, making it an attractive investment in a volatile tech market [14] Group 4: Business Model Evolution - Google's search advertising business remains robust, generating significant free cash flow, while AI opens new avenues for high-value decision-making [15][16] - The introduction of Gemini-driven SGE (Generative Search Experience) allows for structured comparisons in search results, enhancing ad value [19][20] - As long as Google can demonstrate higher ad conversion rates with AI assistance, advertisers will be willing to pay a premium, indicating that search is evolving rather than dying [20][21]

Core Viewpoint - The founder of Shiwa Asset, Liang Hong, publicly apologized for significant net value declines in his funds, attributing the losses to three investment misjudgments related to innovative pharmaceuticals, hardware leaders, and US stablecoin concept stocks, reflecting decisions driven by "greed" and "grand narratives" [1][4] Investment Performance Summary - Shiwa Asset's weekly report indicated that most funds experienced an estimated net value drop of around 7%, with a cumulative decline of approximately 20% from peak values [2][3] - The three main investment errors accounted for about 18% of the total decline, contributing to the overall 20% drop [3] Detailed Investment Errors - The first error involved an innovative pharmaceutical stock that initially contributed over 8 percentage points to net value growth but plummeted after a failed business development announcement, leading to a loss exceeding 4% due to delayed profit-taking [2][3] - The second error was related to a hardware leader stock, which constituted 30% of the portfolio and fell 37% due to rising storage chip prices and negative public sentiment, negatively impacting net value by over 9% [3] - The third error focused on US stablecoin concept stocks, which were heavily invested based on optimistic cryptocurrency market expectations. After a significant price drop of 60%, this investment caused a net value loss of 4-5 percentage points [3] Reflection on Investment Decisions - Liang Hong identified the root causes of the investment mistakes as "greed" and decisions driven by "grand narratives," emphasizing a pattern of over-excitement at high valuations while neglecting risk and cost-effectiveness [4] - An expert noted that Liang's case highlights common pitfalls in the private equity industry, such as over-reliance on single narratives and the failure of risk control mechanisms under emotional pressure [4] Strategic Adjustments - In response to the losses, Liang indicated a shift in investment philosophy, suggesting a need to balance long-term holding with absolute return considerations to reduce future drawdowns [5] - Shiwa Asset plans to maintain its focus on high-quality companies while increasing sensitivity to valuations and market style changes, enhancing quantitative research to mitigate subjective judgment uncertainties [5] Future Investment Direction - Looking ahead, Shiwa Asset intends to maintain a technology-focused investment strategy while also exploring opportunities in sectors like chemicals and consumer goods that may benefit from macroeconomic recovery [6]