商务部副部长盛秋平表示，将推出细化举措，进一步增强消费对经济增长的拉动作用，以强大的国内市 场更好应对外部风险挑战。一是扩围提质实施消费品以旧换新，二是推动汽车流通消费改革，三是实施 服务消费提质惠民行动，四是举办"购在中国"系列活动。 当前，消费品以旧换新取得了积极成效。截至4月27日24时，全国汽车以旧换新281.4万辆，12类家电以 旧换新4941.6万台，手机等数码产品购新3785.5万件，家装厨卫"焕新"4090.6万件，电动自行车以旧换 新超420万台，合计拉动销售额超7200亿元。 对企业加大扩岗支持 人力资源社会保障部副部长俞家栋表示，将加快推出增量政策，对企业加大扩岗支持，对个人加大就业 补贴支持，对受关税影响较大的企业提高失业保险稳岗返还比例等。对已出台的存量政策要全面落实， 加快兑现稳岗返还、担保贷款、就业补贴，延续实施降低失业和工伤保险费率。 （上接1版） 扩内需政策将在二季度加快落地 赵辰昕表示，提振消费专项行动、用好今年国家层面5万亿元投资资金、加快设立国家创业投资引导基 金等政策大部分将在二季度落地。 据悉，在提振消费方面，近期已经下达了今年第二批消费品以旧换新资金，前两批一共下 ...

上一次股债汇"三杀"发生了什么？20250428 摘要 • 类滞胀压力及关税政策制约美联储降息空间，基建和对华关税可能推升 PCE 至年底 4%左右，若未来一两个月关税无显著进展，市场预期 6 月降 息面临挑战，美债避险效果不佳。 • 政治局会议释放扩内需信号，消费、科技（国产替代）、基建和房地产开 发链有望受益，其中科技领域景气度高且有政策支持，消费类行业处于偏 左侧机会，基建和地产链需观察房地产未来趋势。 • 黄金价格受多种因素影响，包括美债利率、美元汇率、央行购金量及美国 赤字等，长期来看美国赤字率对实际金价有强解释力，央行购金量与实际 金价呈正相关，消费者预期越差实物资产价格越高。 • 2025 年黄金价格显著上涨，估值相对较高，但避险需求、抗通胀特性及 美元、美债避险能力减弱导致黄金稀缺性增加，长期投资角度看，黄金仍 具备吸引力，年化回报率与股票相当。 • 外资对中国市场看法略有变化，倾向于等待政策进一步明确信号再进行配 置，中国市场配置比例从上个月快速转为低配水平，行业方面，AI 和半导 体仍受青睐，分红和回购风格成为第二选择。 Q&A 美国股债汇三杀的背景和含义是什么？历史上发生过类似情况吗？ ...

21世纪经济报道记者周潇枭 北京报道 4月25日，中央政治局召开会议指出，要不断完善稳就业稳经济的 政策工具箱，既定政策早出台早见效，根据形势变化及时推出增量储备政策，加强超常规逆周期调节， 全力巩固经济发展和社会稳定的基本面。 4月28日，国新办举行新闻发布会，邀请国家发展改革委、人力资源社会保障部、商务部、中国人民银 行相关负责人出席，详解稳就业稳经济推动高质量发展的若干举措，主要包括五方面内容，分别是支持 就业、稳定外贸发展、促进消费、积极扩大有效投资、营造稳定发展良好环境等。 国家发展改革委副主任赵辰昕在发布会上表示，不管国际局势如何变化，将锚定发展目标，保持战略定 力，集中精力办好自己的事，对实现今年经济社会发展目标任务充满信心。下一步，将积极抓好若干举 措落实，同时还将常态化、敞口式做好政策预研储备，充分备足预案，不断完善稳就业稳经济的政策工 具箱，根据形势变化及时出台增量储备政策。 有接近有关部委的分析人士对21世纪经济报道记者表示，美国推出所谓"对等关税"，且高关税、科技打 压等政策存在反复，要以内部高质量发展的确定性来应对外部环境急剧变化的不确定性。扩内需是必须 要做的事情，因此相关政策会在 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes the need for a proactive approach in economic management, focusing on domestic demand expansion and self-sufficiency in response to external uncertainties [1][8] - The Politburo meeting highlighted the importance of strengthening bottom-line thinking and preparing contingency plans to ensure economic stability, with a focus on stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations [1][8] - The report indicates that expanding internal demand is crucial for countering external shocks and low domestic inflation, with future policies expected to revolve around this central theme [1][8] Group 2 - Domestic economic data for Q1 shows positive signs, with industrial production and domestic consumption showing relative strength, although Q2 may face volatility due to external factors [2][16] - The report notes a potential easing of the "tariff war" between the US and China, which could positively impact market sentiment, but warns that formal trade negotiations have not yet commenced, leaving external trade risks high [2][17] - The report suggests that the capital market may benefit from strong signals of domestic demand expansion, with sectors such as consumer goods, real estate, and technology being highlighted for potential investment opportunities [3][18] Group 3 - The report identifies specific sectors that may benefit from the expansion of domestic demand, including consumer electronics, automotive, and healthcare, particularly in light of upcoming holidays that may boost spending [3][18] - It also recommends a cautious approach to investment in defensive assets and dividend-paying stocks to mitigate ongoing external risks [3][18] - The focus on technology and self-sufficiency is underscored, with attention drawn to domestic alternatives in critical areas such as semiconductors and emerging industries like robotics and healthcare [5][18]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the construction materials industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The industry is expected to focus on stability, with technology and domestic demand as the main themes [1] - The construction materials sector has shown a slight increase of 0.22% this week, underperforming compared to the CSI 300 and Wind All A indices [4] - The report anticipates a significant acceleration in home decoration demand in Q3 2025, driven by policies promoting consumption [4] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Trends - The construction materials sector has experienced a price fluctuation, with the national average price of high-standard cement at 390.8 RMB/ton, down 1.8 RMB/ton from last week but up 35.7 RMB/ton year-on-year [4][22] - Cement market demand has slightly weakened due to seasonal rainfall, with a national average cement shipment rate of 47.4%, down 1.3 percentage points from last week [30] 2. Bulk Construction Materials Fundamentals and High-Frequency Data 2.1 Cement - The national cement market price has decreased by 0.5% this week, with price adjustments mainly in East, Central, and Southwest regions [21] - The report highlights that the cement industry is expected to maintain profitability, with leading companies showing a strong willingness to protect margins [5][12] 2.2 Glass Fiber - The profitability of the glass fiber industry remains at a low point, but demand in wind power and thermoplastics is expected to grow, leading to a gradual recovery in supply-demand balance [13] - The report recommends companies like China Jushi and suggests monitoring others like Zhongcai Technology and Shandong Glass Fiber [13] 2.3 Glass - The glass industry is currently facing a weak balance in supply and demand, with slow inventory depletion and limited price rebound potential [15] - The report recommends Qibin Group and suggests monitoring Nanbo A for potential growth [15] 3. Home Decoration Materials - The report indicates that government policies aimed at boosting domestic demand are expected to enhance home decoration consumption, with a year-on-year sales growth of 8.7% in early 2025 [16] - Recommended companies include Beixin Building Materials and Arrow Home, focusing on those with strong growth intentions and competitive advantages [16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the construction materials industry [1] Core Views - The industry is expected to focus on stability, with technology and domestic demand as the main themes [1] - The construction materials sector has shown a slight increase of 0.22% this week, underperforming compared to the Shanghai Composite Index and the Wind All A Index [4] - The report anticipates a significant acceleration in home decoration demand in Q3 2025, driven by policies promoting consumption [4] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Trends - The construction materials sector has experienced a price fluctuation, with the national average price of high-standard cement at 390.8 RMB/ton, down 1.8 RMB/ton from last week but up 35.7 RMB/ton year-on-year [4][22] - Cement market demand has slightly weakened due to seasonal rainfall, with a national average shipment rate of 47.4%, down 1.3 percentage points from last week [30] 2. Bulk Construction Materials Fundamentals and High-Frequency Data 2.1 Cement - The national cement market price has decreased by 0.5% this week, with price adjustments mainly in East, Central, and Southwest regions [21] - The report highlights that the cement industry is expected to maintain profitability, with leading companies showing a strong willingness to protect margins [5][12] - The average cement inventory ratio is 61.8%, unchanged from last week but down 6.6 percentage points year-on-year [30] 2.2 Glass Fiber - The glass fiber industry is experiencing a recovery in profitability, with demand in wind power and thermoplastics sectors continuing to grow [13] - The report suggests that leading companies in the glass fiber sector are likely to benefit from structural advantages and cost efficiencies [13] 2.3 Glass - The glass industry is facing a weak balance between supply and demand, with slow inventory depletion and limited price rebound potential [15] - The report recommends focusing on leading companies that can leverage resource advantages and benefit from industry capacity reductions [15] 3. Industry Dynamics Tracking - The report notes that external uncertainties, such as trade tensions, are increasing, but domestic policies are expected to support consumption and stabilize the real estate market [16] - The report emphasizes the importance of government policies in boosting home decoration demand, with a notable increase in sales in early 2024 [16] 4. Weekly Market Review - The construction materials sector has shown a slight increase in performance compared to broader market indices, indicating potential investment opportunities [4][20]

21世纪经济报道记者周潇枭 北京报道 4月28日，国务院新闻办公室举行新闻发布会，邀请国家发展改革 委副主任赵辰昕、人力资源社会保障部副部长俞家栋、商务部副部长盛秋平、中国人民银行副行长邹澜 介绍稳就业稳经济推动高质量发展政策措施有关情况，并答记者问。 面对美国滥施关税，后续中国如何加力扩内需为外界所关注。4月25日，中共中央政治局会议分析研究 当前经济形势和经济工作。会议指出，要提高中低收入群体收入，大力发展服务消费，增强消费对经济 增长的拉动作用。尽快清理消费领域限制性措施，设立服务消费与养老再贷款。加大资金支持力度，扩 围提质实施"两新"政策，加力实施"两重"建设。 国家发展改革委副主任赵辰昕在发布会上回应记者提问表示，更好发挥内需主动力作用，具体思路和方 法也非常明确，就是增加中低收入群体收入、大力提振消费，扩大有效投资，做强国内大循环。下一 步，国家发展改革委将认真落实党中央、国务院决策部署，扎实做好这三方面工作。 在提振消费方面，近期已经下达了今年第二批消费品以旧换新资金，前两批一共下达超过1600亿元，后 续还有1400亿元左右，我们会根据各地支付进度陆续下达。还将建立实施育儿补贴制度，创设专项 ...

Company Research - The company reported a revenue of 4.465 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 19.15%, and a net profit of 394 million yuan, up 68.89% year-on-year, with a basic earnings per share of 1.34 yuan [12] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.101 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.41%, and a net profit of 91.155 million yuan, up 62.13% year-on-year, with a basic earnings per share of 0.31 yuan [12] - The company's gross margin improved due to higher margins on staple and canned products, with gross margins increasing by 1.88 and 4.02 percentage points year-on-year to 28.16% and 31.87% respectively in 2024 and Q1 2025 [12][13] - The company focused on enhancing its own brand marketing, leading to a significant increase in brand recognition and sales, with a 131% year-on-year growth in GMV during the Double 11 shopping festival in 2024 [13][15] - The company expanded its overseas market presence, entering 9 new countries in 2024, and its overseas revenue growth rate was 14.62% for the year, with further production capacity expansion planned for Canada and the US [15][16] Industry Research - The overall number of equity funds increased to 6,774 by the end of Q1 2025, with a total scale of 74,529.42 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 1,005.15 billion yuan from the previous quarter [9] - The average equity fund position increased, with flexible allocation funds seeing the largest rise of 1.44 percentage points to 71.90% [9][10] - The industry saw an increase in allocation towards automotive and non-ferrous metals, while reducing exposure to electric power equipment and non-bank financials [10][11]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the need for policies to address external shocks, focusing on expanding domestic demand and investing in the AI industry [1][4][17] - The macro policy tone from the April Politburo meeting is described as both proactive and reserved, with an emphasis on implementing more active macro policies and enhancing counter-cyclical adjustments [1][17] - The report highlights the importance of service consumption as a key driver for expanding domestic demand, alongside a strong focus on technological innovation and the implementation of the "AI+" initiative [1][17] Group 2 - The A-share market showed a mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.56% and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 1.38% during the week of April 21-25 [7][11] - The report notes that sectors such as automotive, beauty care, and basic chemicals performed well, indicating a recovery in the export-related industries [7][14][16] - The report suggests that the AI industry is expected to see significant growth, with major Chinese internet companies increasing their capital expenditures significantly in Q4 2024, indicating a strong future performance for the domestic AI industry chain [14][24] Group 3 - The report indicates that the overall market valuation is relatively low, with the Wan De All A Index's price-to-book ratio at 1.53, which is below historical averages, suggesting strong long-term investment value [14][41] - The report highlights the potential for structural market trends post-May Day holiday, with a focus on domestic demand expansion and the AI industry as key themes [15][24] - The report identifies specific sectors for investment, including service consumption, AI industry chain components, and self-sufficiency areas such as national defense and industrial machinery [24][25][26]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [5] Core Views - The report emphasizes the need to focus on resilient companies with high dividends and those benefiting from domestic demand expansion, recommending companies such as Dongfang Yuhong, Sankeshu, Tubao, Weixing New Materials, and Beixin Building Materials [1] - The report highlights the expected commencement of major national projects, particularly the Yarlung project, and recommends companies involved in these projects, such as Zhongyan Dadi [1] - The report notes the high demand in the civil explosives sector, recommending companies like Guangdong Hongda and Xuefeng Technology [1] - The report discusses the impact of "reciprocal tariffs" on domestic investment expectations, recommending companies like China State Construction, China Communications Construction, and Sichuan Road and Bridge [1] - The report mentions the trend of domestic substitution in the paint industry, recommending companies like Maijia Xincai and Songjing Co., Ltd. [1] - The report anticipates a renewed catalyst for the "Belt and Road" strategy amid trade tensions, recommending international engineering companies such as China State Construction and China Metallurgical Group [1] Summary by Sections Market Overview - In the 17th week of April, new home sales in 30 major cities decreased by 21% year-on-year, while second-hand home transactions increased by 21% year-on-year [2][21] - The national cement market price fell by 0.5% this week, with price adjustments mainly in East, Central, and Southwest China [3][23] Cement Industry - The average operating load of cement mills nationwide is 49.04%, down 1.83 percentage points from last week [3][34] - The report indicates that the cement price is expected to continue its downward trend due to weak supply-demand dynamics [23] Recommendations - Companies with strong operational resilience and high dividends are recommended to benefit from domestic demand stimulation, including Dongfang Yuhong and Weixing New Materials [8] - Companies in the copper mining sector, such as Jinchengxin, are expected to see significant growth due to resource release and strong demand [8] - Companies involved in the Yarlung project and civil explosives are also highlighted for their growth potential [8] - The report suggests focusing on infrastructure investment, recommending companies like China State Construction and China Communications Construction [8] - The report identifies domestic paint companies as beneficiaries of the trend towards local substitution [8]