登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 编者按： 2024年9月24日，央行推出互换便利和股票回购增持再贷款等重磅政策工具，为资本市场注入 强心剂。如今一年过去，这些政策在稳定市场、引导资金流向、优化资源配置等方面究竟表现如何？清 华大学国家金融研究院院长、五道口金融学院副院长田轩近日接受专访，深入剖析政策实施效果与市场 生态变化，为投资者提供全景式解读。 田轩 清华大学国家金融 研究院院长、清华大学五道口金融学院副院长 田轩对 "货币政策 + 财政政策 + 产业政策" 的组合拳给予积极评价。回顾一年来的政策实践，田轩认为 央行工具组合在稳定市场预期方面发挥了关键作用。"互换便利有效缓解了非银机构流动性压力，尤其 在季末和跨节时段作用明显，显著增强了市场韧性。从市场表现看，政策实施后沪深300波动率明显下 降，风险溢价趋于收敛，表明工具组合在稳定预期方面发挥了关键作用。但他也坦言，短期内政策更多 体现为"托底"而非"拉升"，部分工具传导效率不足，中小金融机构对互换便利使用仍显谨慎，加上宏观 经济修复节奏放缓，企业盈利预期尚未明显改善，资本市场结构性矛盾依然存在。 政策托底效应显现 结构性矛盾仍待破解 ...

Group 1 - The macroeconomic policies have been significantly strengthened since August, with various departments collaborating to support the real economy through measures such as tax reductions and interest rate cuts [1][2] - The recent "combination punch" policies are seen as effective, addressing multiple areas including fiscal, real estate, and monetary policies, which are expected to provide sustainable benefits to the market [2][3] - Key macro indicators show positive marginal improvements, such as the manufacturing PMI rising in August and a notable reduction in the decline of imports and exports [2] Group 2 - The effectiveness of monetary and credit policies is being realized, enhancing the internal driving force of the economy and promoting both qualitative and quantitative growth [4] - The central bank has maintained a stable total amount of monetary credit while directing resources towards more dynamic sectors, particularly supporting private small and micro enterprises [4][5] - Data indicates that from January to July, new loans to private enterprises reached 5.9 trillion yuan, with significant growth in inclusive small and micro loans and loans to technology-based SMEs [5]

Group 1 - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in July increased by 0.4% month-on-month, reversing a 0.1% decline in June, indicating a recovery in domestic demand [2][4] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.8% year-on-year, marking the highest increase since March 2024, and has expanded for three consecutive months [2][5] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) saw a month-on-month decline of 0.2%, but this was a narrowing of the decline for the first time since March, suggesting stabilization in some industrial sectors [6][7] Group 2 - The rise in CPI was primarily driven by increases in service prices, which rose by 0.6% month-on-month, contributing approximately 0.26 percentage points to the overall CPI increase [4][5] - Key contributors to the service price increase included airfare, tourism, hotel accommodation, and vehicle rental, which saw significant month-on-month increases of 17.9%, 9.1%, 6.9%, and 4.4% respectively [4] - Industrial consumer goods prices also showed improvement, with a month-on-month increase of 0.5%, influenced by policies aimed at boosting consumption [4][6] Group 3 - The government has implemented a series of macroeconomic policies aimed at enhancing consumption capacity and optimizing the consumption environment, with 19 key measures proposed [2][3] - The ongoing efforts to build a unified national market and regulate low-price competition among enterprises are expected to further stabilize prices [3][6] - The PPI's year-on-year decline remained at -3.6%, but the stabilization indicates a potential turning point for industrial prices, aided by policy measures [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for a coordinated approach to stabilize market expectations, expand effective demand, and foster innovation to return prices to a reasonable range amid improving supply-demand balance [1][3][4]. Group 1: Price Trends - In June, the national Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.1% year-on-year after four consecutive months of decline, while the core CPI increased by 0.7%, marking the highest growth in nearly 14 months [1]. - Despite the marginal improvement, the overall price level remains low, with a cumulative CPI decline of 0.1% in the first half of the year [2]. Group 2: Economic Environment - The current low price levels are seen as a phase in the economic transformation process, influenced by both cyclical and structural factors, as well as short-term and long-term issues [2]. - External factors such as geopolitical tensions and increased tariffs from the U.S. have contributed to global economic slowdown and uncertainty in external demand, impacting domestic prices [2]. Group 3: Policy Recommendations - To stabilize expectations, it is crucial to break the negative cycle of "price decline—demand contraction" by providing clear and continuous policy signals, including a moderately loose monetary policy [3]. - Expanding effective demand is essential for economic recovery, which involves enhancing residents' income and consumption capabilities, as well as improving social security systems [4]. - Promoting innovation is necessary to avoid low-level price competition, encouraging a shift from price wars to competition based on technology and service [4].

Core Insights - The National Bureau of Statistics reported stable growth in key economic indicators for April, with notable attention on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) [2] - April's CPI decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, while the core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, increased by 0.5%, indicating stability [2][4] - The PPI fell by 2.7% year-on-year, with a widening decline compared to the previous month, influenced by international energy price drops and external factors [2][5] Economic Analysis - The core CPI's stability suggests resilience in China's domestic demand market, providing room for further policy action [2][3] - The government's target for CPI growth by 2025 is around 2%, with current figures indicating a significant gap to this goal [2] - Analysts suggest that a combination of proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies could help achieve a mild price recovery and support GDP growth of approximately 5% by 2025 [2][3] Price Trends - In April, the CPI increased by 0.1% month-on-month, reversing a previous downward trend, with seven out of eight categories of goods and services experiencing price increases [4] - Food prices saw a mixed trend, with some items like beef, lamb, seafood, and fresh fruits rising, while fresh vegetables and pork prices declined [4] - The PPI's decline is affecting industrial enterprise profitability, necessitating continued efforts to expand domestic demand and promote technological and industrial innovation [5][6] Future Outlook - The stability of CPI and core CPI reflects the vitality of China's domestic demand market, with expectations for gradual price recovery as policies continue to be implemented [7] - There is a need to address external shocks, particularly from international trade tensions, which could impact industrial product prices [7] - The government aims to enhance support for high-tech industries and promote industrial upgrades to strengthen economic resilience [7]

Group 1 - Industrial production has seen rapid growth, with the added value of equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing increasing by around 10%. The production of 3D printing equipment and industrial robots has surged by over 50%. This growth is attributed to macro policy measures that have accelerated industrial upgrades, leading to enhanced production efficiency and quality [1][3] Group 2 - Market sales are on the rise, driven by the effectiveness of the "old-for-new" consumption policy. Retail sales in categories such as home appliances, cultural and office supplies, and furniture are experiencing high growth. Various local departments are implementing special actions to boost consumption, enriching consumption scenarios and continuously releasing consumption potential [4][6] Group 3 - Foreign trade has shown resilience, with total goods import and export volume increasing by 2.4% year-on-year from January to April 2025, accelerating by 1.1 percentage points compared to the first quarter. This growth is notable against the backdrop of rising unilateralism and protectionism, supported by China's strong manufacturing capabilities and the proactive response of foreign trade enterprises through market diversification strategies [8][10] Group 4 - Investment is steadily expanding, with high-tech industry investments leading the way. Investments in information services and computer and office equipment manufacturing are in a high growth phase, indicating optimistic market expectations and strong demand for industrial upgrades, reflecting the trend of China's economic transition towards innovation-driven growth [10][12]

Economic Performance - In Q1 2025, China's GDP reached 31.8758 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.4% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.2%[3] - The industrial added value grew by 6.5% year-on-year, while the service sector's added value increased by 5.3%[4] - Fixed asset investment rose by 4.2% year-on-year, with infrastructure investment growing by 5.8%[16][20] Trade and Exports - Total goods trade in Q1 2025 was 10.3 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.3%, with exports at 6.13 trillion yuan, up 6.9%[28] - The export of mechanical and electrical products reached 5.29 trillion yuan, growing by 7.7%[28] - The share of domestic brand exports increased to 22.8%, reflecting a 10.2% growth in this segment[28] Price Stability - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, with food prices dropping by 1.5%[31] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 2.3% year-on-year, indicating a slowdown in the decline compared to previous quarters[33] Employment and Fiscal Policy - The urban survey unemployment rate averaged 5.3% in Q1 2025, showing stability in the job market[38] - National general public budget revenue was 6.0 trillion yuan, down 1.1% year-on-year, while expenditures increased by 4.2% to 7.3 trillion yuan[40]

Economic Performance Overview - In April, external shocks increased, but China's economic foundation remains stable, with strong advantages, resilience, and potential, supported by coordinated macro policies [1][4] - The overall economic performance in April reflects a complex international environment, making stable economic operation more challenging [1] Industrial Growth - Industrial production showed rapid growth, with the industrial added value of large-scale enterprises increasing by 6.1% year-on-year in April, marking one of the fastest monthly growth rates since last year [1] - The equipment manufacturing sector experienced significant growth, with an added value increase of 9.8% year-on-year, contributing 55.9% to the industrial growth [1] Service Sector Performance - The service sector maintained stable growth, with the service production index rising by 6% year-on-year in April, the second-highest monthly growth rate this year [1] - Digital transformation and increased travel boosted information and business services, with the production indices for information transmission software and IT services, and leasing and business services growing by 10.4% and 8.9% respectively [1] Domestic Demand - Domestic demand expanded steadily, with retail sales of consumer goods increasing by 5.1% year-on-year in April, supported by the effects of the trade-in policy [2] - Fixed asset investment grew by 4% year-on-year from January to April, with equipment and tool purchases increasing by 18.2%, contributing 64.5% to total investment growth [2] Foreign Trade Resilience - Despite a rapidly changing international environment, China's foreign trade demonstrated resilience, with total goods imports and exports increasing by 2.4% year-on-year from January to April [2] - Exports of mechanical and electrical products grew by 9.5% in the first four months, highlighting the effectiveness of diversifying trade partnerships [2] Employment Stability - The employment situation remained generally stable, with the urban unemployment rate at 5.1% in April, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [3] - Policies supporting employment and entrepreneurship for key groups contributed to this stability [3] High-tech Industry Growth - High-tech industries experienced rapid growth, with the added value of high-tech manufacturing increasing by 10% year-on-year in April [3] - Significant growth was observed in aerospace equipment and integrated circuit manufacturing, with increases of 21.4% and 21.3% respectively [3] Future Outlook - The government aims to implement more proactive macro policies to stabilize employment, businesses, and market expectations, while promoting high-quality development [4] - The focus will be on strengthening the domestic economic cycle and ensuring sustainable and healthy economic growth [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant growth in the national futures market in April 2025, with trading volume and value increasing year-on-year [1][2] - In April 2025, the national futures market recorded a trading volume of 809 million contracts and a trading value of 70.18 trillion yuan, representing year-on-year increases of 21.49% and 23.69% respectively [1] - From January to April 2025, the cumulative trading volume reached 2.658 billion contracts and the cumulative trading value was 232.2 trillion yuan, showing year-on-year growth of 22.19% and 28.36% [1] Group 2 - As of the end of April 2025, the national futures market's open interest was 41.9216 million contracts, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 20.26% but a year-on-year increase of 18.98% [2] - The trading activity in commodity futures remained robust, with significant growth in precious metals trading volumes due to the impact of U.S. tariff policies [6] - The oil and chemical sectors experienced a rebound in trading due to significant price fluctuations, while the textile and chemical fiber industry showed signs of recovery [6] Group 3 - Financial futures experienced a "price drop with increased volume" scenario, with all four stock index futures prices declining in April [7] - The declines in stock index futures were influenced by multiple factors, including a drop in the global manufacturing index and the impact of U.S. tariff policies on global trade [7][8] - Looking ahead, the futures and options market in China is expected to maintain a good growth trend in trading scale, with open interest likely to recover further in May [8]

Group 1 - The core message emphasizes the importance of labor and the contributions of workers in achieving economic stability and growth, particularly in the context of China's ongoing modernization efforts [1][2][4] - The Chinese economy showed a positive start in 2023, with a GDP growth of 5.4% year-on-year in the first quarter, indicating resilience amid global challenges [1] - The government is focused on high-quality development and aims to leverage the strengths of the workforce to navigate complex domestic and international environments [2][3] Group 2 - The emphasis on transforming the "demographic dividend" into a "talent dividend" highlights the need for a skilled workforce to support high-quality development and maintain competitive advantages in the global market [3] - The call for enhancing labor rights and welfare, including reforms to wage determination and social security systems for various employment types, reflects a commitment to improving the livelihoods of workers [4] - The narrative stresses the importance of collective effort and individual contributions in driving forward the goals of Chinese-style modernization, reinforcing the idea that every worker plays a crucial role in this journey [4][5]