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【新华解读】宏观政策“组合拳”持续显效 7月份多项物价指标改善
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-08-09 08:49
国内需求继续修复 7月份物价运行边际改善 国家统计局8月9日发布的数据显示,7月份,我国CPI环比由上月下降0.1%转为上涨0.4%,涨幅高于季 节性水平0.1个百分点,同比持平;扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨0.8%,涨幅连续3个月扩 大,为2024年3月以来最高。"这表明国内需求继续修复。"广开首席产业研究院首席金融研究员王运金 说。 物价是反映市场供需情况的重要指标。上半年,我国CPI同比下降0.1%,意味着国内消费仍然有待提 振。"这也给下半年我国宏观政策,特别是货币政策提出了新要求。"中国人民大学经济学院教授范志勇 说,预计下半年货币政策还会进一步发力。 事实上,从中央到各有关部门对当前价格和内需形势都有着深刻认识和共识。宏观政策部署更为超前。 今年6月24日,中国人民银行、国家发展改革委、财政部、商务部等6部门就联合对外发布了《关于金融 支持提振和扩大消费的指导意见》,从支持增强消费能力、扩大消费领域金融供给、挖掘释放居民消费 潜力、促进提升消费供给效能、优化消费环境和政策支撑保障等六个方面提出19项重点举措。 7月1日召开的中央财经委员会第六次会议强调,纵深推进全国统一大市场建设,要聚焦 ...
供需协同促进物价合理运行
Jing Ji Ri Bao· 2025-07-10 22:04
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for a coordinated approach to stabilize market expectations, expand effective demand, and foster innovation to return prices to a reasonable range amid improving supply-demand balance [1][3][4]. Group 1: Price Trends - In June, the national Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.1% year-on-year after four consecutive months of decline, while the core CPI increased by 0.7%, marking the highest growth in nearly 14 months [1]. - Despite the marginal improvement, the overall price level remains low, with a cumulative CPI decline of 0.1% in the first half of the year [2]. Group 2: Economic Environment - The current low price levels are seen as a phase in the economic transformation process, influenced by both cyclical and structural factors, as well as short-term and long-term issues [2]. - External factors such as geopolitical tensions and increased tariffs from the U.S. have contributed to global economic slowdown and uncertainty in external demand, impacting domestic prices [2]. Group 3: Policy Recommendations - To stabilize expectations, it is crucial to break the negative cycle of "price decline—demand contraction" by providing clear and continuous policy signals, including a moderately loose monetary policy [3]. - Expanding effective demand is essential for economic recovery, which involves enhancing residents' income and consumption capabilities, as well as improving social security systems [4]. - Promoting innovation is necessary to avoid low-level price competition, encouraging a shift from price wars to competition based on technology and service [4].
宏观政策“组合拳”稳住核心CPI 专家:推动物价温和回升
Core Insights - The National Bureau of Statistics reported stable growth in key economic indicators for April, with notable attention on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) [2] - April's CPI decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, while the core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, increased by 0.5%, indicating stability [2][4] - The PPI fell by 2.7% year-on-year, with a widening decline compared to the previous month, influenced by international energy price drops and external factors [2][5] Economic Analysis - The core CPI's stability suggests resilience in China's domestic demand market, providing room for further policy action [2][3] - The government's target for CPI growth by 2025 is around 2%, with current figures indicating a significant gap to this goal [2] - Analysts suggest that a combination of proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies could help achieve a mild price recovery and support GDP growth of approximately 5% by 2025 [2][3] Price Trends - In April, the CPI increased by 0.1% month-on-month, reversing a previous downward trend, with seven out of eight categories of goods and services experiencing price increases [4] - Food prices saw a mixed trend, with some items like beef, lamb, seafood, and fresh fruits rising, while fresh vegetables and pork prices declined [4] - The PPI's decline is affecting industrial enterprise profitability, necessitating continued efforts to expand domestic demand and promote technological and industrial innovation [5][6] Future Outlook - The stability of CPI and core CPI reflects the vitality of China's domestic demand market, with expectations for gradual price recovery as policies continue to be implemented [7] - There is a need to address external shocks, particularly from international trade tensions, which could impact industrial product prices [7] - The government aims to enhance support for high-tech industries and promote industrial upgrades to strengthen economic resilience [7]
蝶变、拉满、C位……划重点!解锁4月经济数据顶压增长背后政策“组合拳”密码
Yang Shi Wang· 2025-05-20 01:58
Group 1 - Industrial production has seen rapid growth, with the added value of equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing increasing by around 10%. The production of 3D printing equipment and industrial robots has surged by over 50%. This growth is attributed to macro policy measures that have accelerated industrial upgrades, leading to enhanced production efficiency and quality [1][3] Group 2 - Market sales are on the rise, driven by the effectiveness of the "old-for-new" consumption policy. Retail sales in categories such as home appliances, cultural and office supplies, and furniture are experiencing high growth. Various local departments are implementing special actions to boost consumption, enriching consumption scenarios and continuously releasing consumption potential [4][6] Group 3 - Foreign trade has shown resilience, with total goods import and export volume increasing by 2.4% year-on-year from January to April 2025, accelerating by 1.1 percentage points compared to the first quarter. This growth is notable against the backdrop of rising unilateralism and protectionism, supported by China's strong manufacturing capabilities and the proactive response of foreign trade enterprises through market diversification strategies [8][10] Group 4 - Investment is steadily expanding, with high-tech industry investments leading the way. Investments in information services and computer and office equipment manufacturing are in a high growth phase, indicating optimistic market expectations and strong demand for industrial upgrades, reflecting the trend of China's economic transition towards innovation-driven growth [10][12]
经济运行开局良好,宏观政策不断加力--宏观经济信用观察季度报(2025年一季度)
Lian He Zi Xin· 2025-05-19 04:40
Economic Performance - In Q1 2025, China's GDP reached 31.8758 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.4% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.2%[3] - The industrial added value grew by 6.5% year-on-year, while the service sector's added value increased by 5.3%[4] - Fixed asset investment rose by 4.2% year-on-year, with infrastructure investment growing by 5.8%[16][20] Trade and Exports - Total goods trade in Q1 2025 was 10.3 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.3%, with exports at 6.13 trillion yuan, up 6.9%[28] - The export of mechanical and electrical products reached 5.29 trillion yuan, growing by 7.7%[28] - The share of domestic brand exports increased to 22.8%, reflecting a 10.2% growth in this segment[28] Price Stability - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, with food prices dropping by 1.5%[31] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 2.3% year-on-year, indicating a slowdown in the decline compared to previous quarters[33] Employment and Fiscal Policy - The urban survey unemployment rate averaged 5.3% in Q1 2025, showing stability in the job market[38] - National general public budget revenue was 6.0 trillion yuan, down 1.1% year-on-year, while expenditures increased by 4.2% to 7.3 trillion yuan[40]
国家统计局:4月份国民经济应变克难稳定运行 就业形势总体稳定
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-19 03:40
Economic Performance Overview - In April, external shocks increased, but China's economic foundation remains stable, with strong advantages, resilience, and potential, supported by coordinated macro policies [1][4] - The overall economic performance in April reflects a complex international environment, making stable economic operation more challenging [1] Industrial Growth - Industrial production showed rapid growth, with the industrial added value of large-scale enterprises increasing by 6.1% year-on-year in April, marking one of the fastest monthly growth rates since last year [1] - The equipment manufacturing sector experienced significant growth, with an added value increase of 9.8% year-on-year, contributing 55.9% to the industrial growth [1] Service Sector Performance - The service sector maintained stable growth, with the service production index rising by 6% year-on-year in April, the second-highest monthly growth rate this year [1] - Digital transformation and increased travel boosted information and business services, with the production indices for information transmission software and IT services, and leasing and business services growing by 10.4% and 8.9% respectively [1] Domestic Demand - Domestic demand expanded steadily, with retail sales of consumer goods increasing by 5.1% year-on-year in April, supported by the effects of the trade-in policy [2] - Fixed asset investment grew by 4% year-on-year from January to April, with equipment and tool purchases increasing by 18.2%, contributing 64.5% to total investment growth [2] Foreign Trade Resilience - Despite a rapidly changing international environment, China's foreign trade demonstrated resilience, with total goods imports and exports increasing by 2.4% year-on-year from January to April [2] - Exports of mechanical and electrical products grew by 9.5% in the first four months, highlighting the effectiveness of diversifying trade partnerships [2] Employment Stability - The employment situation remained generally stable, with the urban unemployment rate at 5.1% in April, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [3] - Policies supporting employment and entrepreneurship for key groups contributed to this stability [3] High-tech Industry Growth - High-tech industries experienced rapid growth, with the added value of high-tech manufacturing increasing by 10% year-on-year in April [3] - Significant growth was observed in aerospace equipment and integrated circuit manufacturing, with increases of 21.4% and 21.3% respectively [3] Future Outlook - The government aims to implement more proactive macro policies to stabilize employment, businesses, and market expectations, while promoting high-quality development [4] - The focus will be on strengthening the domestic economic cycle and ensuring sustainable and healthy economic growth [4]
4月期货市场交易情况出炉,成交量、成交额同比涨超20%
Guo Ji Jin Rong Bao· 2025-05-13 09:44
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant growth in the national futures market in April 2025, with trading volume and value increasing year-on-year [1][2] - In April 2025, the national futures market recorded a trading volume of 809 million contracts and a trading value of 70.18 trillion yuan, representing year-on-year increases of 21.49% and 23.69% respectively [1] - From January to April 2025, the cumulative trading volume reached 2.658 billion contracts and the cumulative trading value was 232.2 trillion yuan, showing year-on-year growth of 22.19% and 28.36% [1] Group 2 - As of the end of April 2025, the national futures market's open interest was 41.9216 million contracts, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 20.26% but a year-on-year increase of 18.98% [2] - The trading activity in commodity futures remained robust, with significant growth in precious metals trading volumes due to the impact of U.S. tariff policies [6] - The oil and chemical sectors experienced a rebound in trading due to significant price fluctuations, while the textile and chemical fiber industry showed signs of recovery [6] Group 3 - Financial futures experienced a "price drop with increased volume" scenario, with all four stock index futures prices declining in April [7] - The declines in stock index futures were influenced by multiple factors, including a drop in the global manufacturing index and the impact of U.S. tariff policies on global trade [7][8] - Looking ahead, the futures and options market in China is expected to maintain a good growth trend in trading scale, with open interest likely to recover further in May [8]
人民日报社论:坚定信心 奋发有为 创新创造 ——写在“五一”国际劳动节
Xin Hua She· 2025-04-30 13:54
Group 1 - The core message emphasizes the importance of labor and the contributions of workers in achieving economic stability and growth, particularly in the context of China's ongoing modernization efforts [1][2][4] - The Chinese economy showed a positive start in 2023, with a GDP growth of 5.4% year-on-year in the first quarter, indicating resilience amid global challenges [1] - The government is focused on high-quality development and aims to leverage the strengths of the workforce to navigate complex domestic and international environments [2][3] Group 2 - The emphasis on transforming the "demographic dividend" into a "talent dividend" highlights the need for a skilled workforce to support high-quality development and maintain competitive advantages in the global market [3] - The call for enhancing labor rights and welfare, including reforms to wage determination and social security systems for various employment types, reflects a commitment to improving the livelihoods of workers [4] - The narrative stresses the importance of collective effort and individual contributions in driving forward the goals of Chinese-style modernization, reinforcing the idea that every worker plays a crucial role in this journey [4][5]
一季度制造业利润增长7.6%,释放什么信号
Jin Rong Shi Bao· 2025-04-28 14:32
Core Insights - In the first quarter of this year, industrial enterprises' profits turned from a decline of 3.3% year-on-year to a growth of 0.8%, marking a significant recovery from the continuous decline since the third quarter of the previous year [1] - The revenue of industrial enterprises also saw an increase, with a year-on-year growth of 3.4% in the first quarter, accelerating by 0.6 percentage points compared to the first two months [1] - The improvement in profits and revenues is attributed to enhanced macroeconomic policies and effective regulation, leading to a stabilization in business conditions and an increase in profitability [1] Industry Performance - Nearly 60% of industries reported profit growth in the first quarter, with 24 out of 41 major industrial sectors showing year-on-year profit increases [2] - Manufacturing sector profits grew by 7.6% year-on-year, accelerating by 2.8 percentage points, significantly supporting the overall industrial profit recovery [2] - The main drivers of profit growth in industrial enterprises were the equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing sectors, benefiting from policies that promote technological and industrial innovation [2][3] Specific Sector Insights - Within the manufacturing sector, equipment manufacturing profits increased by 6.4% year-on-year, accounting for 32.0% of total industrial profits, while high-tech manufacturing profits turned from a decline of 5.8% to a growth of 3.5% [3] - The "Two New" policies have positively impacted profits in specialized and general equipment sectors, with profits growing by 14.2% and 9.5% respectively, significantly above the overall industrial average [3] Challenges and Outlook - Despite the positive trends, the industrial sector faces challenges such as increased turnover days for finished products and a decline in profit margins, with the operating profit margin dropping to 4.7% [4] - The external environment remains complex and uncertain, but the effects of macroeconomic policies are becoming evident, with expectations for continued recovery in industrial performance supported by government bond issuance and a favorable manufacturing PMI [4]
国家统计局工业司统计师于卫宁解读2025年1—3月份工业企业利润数据
Guo Jia Tong Ji Ju· 2025-04-27 01:40
一季度规模以上工业企业利润由降转增 ——国家统计局工业司统计师于卫宁解读2025年1—3月份工业企业利润数据 一季度,各地区各部门认真贯彻落实党中央、国务院决策部署,着力打好宏观政策"组合拳",政策效应 持续释放,带动工业企业利润由降转增,装备制造业、高技术制造业利润支撑作用明显,工业经济发展 质效持续提升。 工业企业利润由降转增。一季度,全国规模以上工业企业利润由上年全年同比下降3.3%转为增长 0.8%,扭转了自上年三季度以来企业累计利润持续下降的态势。3月份,规模以上工业企业利润由1—2 月份下降0.3%转为增长2.6%,企业当月利润有所改善。 工业企业营收增长持续加快。随着工业生产增长加快,带动工业企业营收继续改善。一季度,全国规模 以上工业企业营业收入同比增长3.4%,增速较1—2月份加快0.6个百分点;3月份,规模以上工业企业营 收增长4.2%,较1—2月份加快1.4个百分点。工业企业营收累计增速自上年12月份以来持续加快,为企 业盈利恢复创造有利条件。 近六成行业利润实现增长,制造业改善明显。一季度,在41个工业大类行业中,有24个行业利润同比增 长,增长面近六成;有24个行业利润增速较1—2月 ...