高盛闭门会-ai 数据中心带来能源新增长，关键投资机会在 电网和电池 20251123 摘要 全球能源需求持续增长，人工智能和数据中心是主要驱动力，天然气作 为过渡燃料的重要性再次凸显，石油需求预计将持续增长至 2040 年， 表明能源结构转型并非一蹴而就。 美国在清洁技术领域保持领先地位，德克萨斯州成为美国清洁技术中心。 欧洲则关注欧盟排放交易体系（EUETS）的未来走向，预计 2026 年边 境调整生效后将获得更多支持。 大型公用事业公司预测欧美电力需求将增长 2%-3%，微软、谷歌、英 伟达等科技巨头在欧洲数据中心领域投资增加，预示欧洲数据中心市场 正快速发展。 全球范围内可再生能源持续推进，即使在传统碳氢化合物地区如德克萨 斯州。印度人均 GDP 快速增长带动能源消费，中国以外地区电动车渗透 率低，塑料需求强劲，共同推动全球能源消费增长。 电池储能会议聚焦数据中心和人工智能领域的电力需求，中国在储能领 域占据主导地位，拥有完整供应链和快速产能扩张能力，预计 2024- 2026 年全球电池价格将下降 50%以上。 Q&A 今年（2025 年）碳排放会议上有哪些值得关注的新趋势？ 今年的碳排放会议上，能 ...

Core Viewpoint - The 30th United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP30) concluded in Belem, Brazil, amidst significant political pressure and global expectations, focusing on key issues such as funding, energy transition, trade, and international cooperation [1][3]. Group 1: U.S. Absence and Its Impact - The absence of the U.S. federal government at COP30 marked a historic moment, raising concerns about the future of global climate governance [3][6]. - The lack of U.S. representation has created challenges in funding negotiations and political coordination among developed countries, particularly affecting financial commitments to developing nations [7][20]. - Despite the absence of federal representatives, many local government and business leaders from the U.S. attended, indicating a division in U.S. domestic opinion on climate change [8][9]. Group 2: Energy Transition and NDCs - The conference emphasized the importance of energy transition, with over 120 countries submitting new Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) ahead of the 2035 deadline [12][15]. - China advocates for maintaining the UAE consensus on energy transition, opposing new, separate roadmaps that do not consider renewable energy development [13][14]. - China's ambitious targets include a reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by 7%-10% from peak levels by 2035 and increasing non-fossil energy consumption to over 30% [15][16]. Group 3: Trade Issues and Funding Challenges - Development countries united in opposition to unilateral trade measures proposed by developed nations, particularly the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) [17][18]. - Funding remains a critical issue, with developing countries urgently needing financial support to address climate change, as mandated by the Paris Agreement [20]. - The COP30 outcomes included a commitment to double adaptation funding by 2025 and at least triple it by 2035, urging developed nations to fulfill their financial obligations [20][21].

Market Sentiment - The current market sentiment score is 22, indicating a "cold" market environment. Historical trends suggest that when the sentiment score is below or near 30, the market tends to find support, while scores above 70 may indicate resistance [4][7][20]. Hot Themes Tracking - **Non-ferrous Metals**: Demand expectations are boosted by potential US interest rate cuts and AI data centers driving marginal growth. Copper prices are expected to rise due to financial attributes and supply constraints, while aluminum production is peaking domestically with limited overseas growth. Key stocks include Zijin Mining (601899) and China Aluminum (601600) [4]. - **Power Equipment**: The intersection of global energy transition and digitalization is accelerating AI penetration in the power sector. The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that global data center electricity consumption will double by 2030. China's State Grid investment exceeded 420 billion yuan in the first nine months of the year, with a projected annual investment of over 650 billion yuan. Relevant stocks include State Grid Nanzhi (600268) and China Xidian (601179) [4]. - **Banking Sector**: Bank stocks are characterized by high dividend yields, with the China Securities Bank Index yielding 6.02%, significantly higher than the 10-year government bond yield. In a slowing economy with increased market volatility, bank stocks are becoming important investment targets for long-term funds. Notable stocks include Agricultural Bank of China (601288) and Ningbo Bank (002142) [4]. Capital Flow Analysis - The top ten stocks with the highest net inflow include Kaimeteqi (002549) with 77.46 million yuan and Yidian Tianxia (301171) with 65.35 million yuan, indicating strong investor interest in these companies [8]. - Conversely, the top ten stocks with the highest net outflow include Shenghong Technology (300476) with -181.64 million yuan and Xinyi Technology (300502) with -179.15 million yuan, reflecting investor caution towards these stocks [12]. Industry Overview - The report highlights the importance of monitoring market sentiment and capital flows to identify potential investment opportunities and risks within the non-ferrous metals, power equipment, and banking sectors. The analysis emphasizes the need for cautious investment strategies in the current market environment [4][20].

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry has entered a new phase as the storage sector experiences rapid growth, prompting leading companies like Longi Green Energy to diversify into energy storage [1][2]. Group 1: Longi Green Energy's Strategic Shift - Longi Green Energy plans to acquire Suzhou Jingkong Energy Technology Co., Ltd., marking its entry into the electrochemical energy storage sector [1]. - Previously, Longi Green Energy focused on hydrogen energy, establishing a subsidiary for hydrogen production in March 2021, but has now shifted its strategy due to the lack of significant progress in hydrogen business [6][9]. - The company's stock has rebounded significantly, with a nearly 20% increase year-to-date and over 60% since late June [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Demand - Global demand for energy storage is expected to surge, with a projected 30% increase in battery shipments by 2026, reaching approximately 770 GWh [2]. - Morgan Stanley has revised its lithium market outlook from surplus to shortage, raising its 2026 lithium price forecast from 70,000 RMB/ton to 90,000 RMB/ton, with current prices exceeding 100,000 RMB/ton [2]. - The energy storage market is anticipated to grow significantly, particularly in China, which is expected to have 1,473 operational energy storage stations by the end of 2024, with a total installed capacity of 62.13 GW/141.37 GWh [11]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The energy storage sector is highly competitive, with established players like CATL, BYD, and Sungrow leading the market [12]. - Longi Green Energy's acquisition of Jingkong Energy is seen as a strategic move to quickly enter the energy storage market amid increasing competition and price wars [13]. - Jingkong Energy, founded in 2015, has a production capacity of 31 GWh and ranks third in global energy storage system shipments [13].

近日，国际能源署发布《2025年世界能源展望》报告强调，未来几十年，全球对能源服务特别是电力需 求将持续增长，包括交通、供暖、制冷、照明及其他家庭与工业用途的能源需求将快速上升，同时，数 据和人工智能相关服务需要的能源供应也将大幅上扬。 电力是当代工业和数字经济的命脉，目前，电力仅占全球终端能源消费的20%，但支撑起全球经济总量 40%以上领域，也是大多数家庭的核心能源保障。在可预见的时间内，全球电力需求增速将远高于能源 消费总量增速。这在当前全球能源投资中已有明显体现，对电力供应与终端电气化投资已占全球能源投 资总量的50%。 国际能源署多年来的分析持续凸显电力在全球经济中日益重要的地位。国际能源署署长法提赫·比罗尔 指出，与过去10年的趋势不同，电力消费增长不再局限于新兴经济体和发展中经济体。数据中心和人工 智能带来的电力需求迅猛增长，同样大幅推升了全球发达经济体的用电量。2025年全球数据中心投资预 计将达5800亿美元，已超过全球石油供应投资的5400亿美元，体现出全球经济形态的深刻变革。 报告指出，伴随着国际能源市场变革和国际政治格局动荡，在油气供应等传统能源安全风险之外，其他 关键矿产资源领域的脆 ...

报告显示，以光伏为首的可再生能源增速领先其他主要能源，到2035年，全球80%的能源消费增长将发 生在太阳辐照优质区域。同时，全球核电产业加速复苏，经历20多年停滞后，预测在2035年前，全球核 电装机容量至少能够实现三分之一的增长。同时，对传统大型核电站和小型模块化反应堆等新型设计的 投资将保持双线增长。 近日，国际能源署发布《2025年世界能源展望》报告强调，未来几十年，全球对能源服务特别是电力需 求将持续增长，包括交通、供暖、制冷、照明及其他家庭与工业用途的能源需求将快速上升，同时，数 据和人工智能相关服务需要的能源供应也将大幅上扬。 电力是当代工业和数字经济的命脉，目前，电力仅占全球终端能源消费的20%，但支撑起全球经济总量 40%以上领域，也是大多数家庭的核心能源保障。在可预见的时间内，全球电力需求增速将远高于能源 消费总量增速。这在当前全球能源投资中已有明显体现，对电力供应与终端电气化投资已占全球能源投 资总量的50%。 国际能源署多年来的分析持续凸显电力在全球经济中日益重要的地位。国际能源署署长法提赫·比罗尔 指出，与过去10年的趋势不同，电力消费增长不再局限于新兴经济体和发展中经济体。数据中心 ...

Group 1: Clean Energy Industry - China has established the world's largest and most complete clean energy industry chain, with a total investment of $818 billion in energy transition in 2023, a 20% increase year-on-year, surpassing the combined investments of the US, UK, and EU [2] - In 2024, global CO2 emissions related to energy are projected to increase by 0.8% year-on-year, reaching a historical high of 3.78 billion tons, highlighting the urgency for energy transition [2] - China exports clean energy products to over 200 countries, providing 70% of global wind power equipment and 80% of solar photovoltaic components, significantly reducing global wind and solar power generation costs by over 60% and 80% respectively [2] Group 2: Electricity Consumption - In October, China's total electricity consumption reached 857.2 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 10.4%, with a cumulative consumption of 8,624.6 billion kWh from January to October, up 5.1% [3] - The southern power grid region (Guangdong, Guangxi, Yunnan, Guizhou, Hainan) achieved a 10% year-on-year increase in electricity consumption in October, marking the first double-digit growth since February [4] Group 3: Nuclear Energy Developments - The world's largest "Hualong One" nuclear power base in Fujian successfully connected its second unit to the grid, marking significant progress in the batch construction of "Hualong One" [3] - China's nuclear energy utilization has entered a new phase with the Hainan nuclear power project beginning to supply industrial steam, expanding beyond electricity generation and residential heating [4] - Japan's Niigata Prefecture governor has agreed to restart the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa nuclear power plant, which has been offline since the Fukushima disaster in 2011, indicating a shift in Japan's nuclear energy policy [6] Group 4: Infrastructure and Logistics - China's longest crude oil pipeline, the Western Crude Oil Pipeline, has transported over 200 million tons of oil, enhancing national energy security [3] - The Gansu power grid's energy storage system achieved a record discharge power of 5.04 million kW, supporting electricity supply during peak demand [7]

Group 1 - The G20 summit held in Johannesburg, South Africa, marked the first time the leaders' meeting took place on the African continent, highlighting the significance of placing the development needs of Global South countries at the core of the global agenda [1][2] - The summit resulted in the adoption of the Leaders' Declaration, which reflects the G20's commitment to multilateral cooperation and promoting common development amid global challenges [1][2] - The G20 has pledged to provide more support to low- and middle-income countries, aiming to create a virtuous cycle of "debt reduction - increased investment - growth" [1] Group 2 - The summit confirmed the advancement of the "Critical Minerals Framework" to promote sustainable development opportunities through key resources globally [2] - The Leaders' Declaration is viewed as a commitment to drive global action, emphasizing that multilateralism remains the best approach to address common challenges [2] - The summit called for accelerated implementation of the 2030 Sustainable Development Agenda to ensure a more inclusive, just, and prosperous world, ensuring that no one is left behind [2]

新华社约翰内斯堡11月23日电 二十国集团南非峰会：领导人宣言（摘译） 序言 我们，2025年11月22日至23日相聚于南非约翰内斯堡的二十国集团领导人，出席南非主席国在非洲 大陆举行的首次历史性峰会，应对主要全球挑战，探讨促进以团结、平等、可持续为关键支撑的包容性 增长。 我们谴责一切形式和表现的恐怖主义。 我们一致认为，在《联合国宪章》宗旨和原则的全面指引下，我们将致力于在苏丹、刚果（金）、 巴勒斯坦被占领土、乌克兰实现公正、全面和持久的和平，并结束全球其他冲突与战争。只有在和平之 下，我们才能实现可持续发展和繁荣。 加强灾害韧性和应对 我们强调采取综合、包容、以人为本、全面的减灾方法至关重要。我们注意到需要加强灾害韧性和 灾害应对能力，包括采取协调行动减少地震、极端高温、洪涝、干旱、野火及荒漠化等灾害的频率和负 面影响，确保在必要时做好相互援助的准备。我们欢迎采用基于自然的解决方案和基于生态系统的方 法，在提供生态系统服务的同时，既最大限度降低风险，又增强应对特定灾害的韧性。 采取行动确保低收入国家债务可持续性 我们重申致力于以有效、全面和系统的方式支持中、低收入国家应对债务脆弱性问题。我们核准 202 ...

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Recommended [4] Core Views - The report indicates that the recent U.S. non-farm employment data exceeded expectations, which has suppressed interest rate cut expectations for the year, leading to downward pressure on metal prices [3][20] - Precious metals have seen price declines due to weakened rate cut expectations, with COMEX gold down 0.53% to $4,062.80 per ounce and COMEX silver down 1.47% to $49.66 per ounce [30][46] - The overall outlook for precious metals remains cautious, with geopolitical tensions and global debt concerns driving long-term investment in gold [20][49] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - COMEX gold and silver prices have decreased, with significant changes in ETF holdings, indicating a shift in market sentiment [30][46] - The U.S. job market shows mixed signals, complicating the Federal Reserve's decision-making regarding interest rates [3][9] - The report highlights a potential long-term bullish trend for gold due to rising global debt and inflation concerns [20][49] Base Metals - Base metal prices are under pressure due to reduced rate cut expectations, with copper, aluminum, zinc, and lead all experiencing price declines [8][9] - The supply side is facing challenges, with major copper producers reporting production declines due to operational issues [9][12] - Demand for copper is expected to remain tight in the long term, supported by energy transition policies and infrastructure investments [22] Small Metals - The report notes that magnesium prices are under pressure due to rising costs, while demand remains stable [18] - Molybdenum and vanadium prices are weak, reflecting a challenging market environment for these metals [19] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a focus on gold and silver stocks, highlighting specific companies that may benefit from rising metal prices [20][50] - For base metals, companies involved in copper production are recommended due to expected supply constraints and long-term demand growth [22]